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Messages - BornFromTheVoid

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: Today at 10:31:34 AM »
Today's images and animation.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: Today at 09:40:53 AM »

I question the validity of a forecast so far beyond the trend line.


Strewth!  (Time to breathe into a paper bag)
Thanks, BFTV.  I think.   At first I thought there was some error, but then I realized your graph plummets so far because it goes on into 2022, and that would presuppose the current trend through 2019 and 2020 continues.  Which it could, especially if there is a poor refreeze, a possibility on many of our minds at present.  If so then that straight-line-looking decline trend, already scary, could start looking heart-stopping.

Only following the previous 10 years would produce 2 very low minima and a record low maximum, which is easy enough to envisage, though unlikely.
However, given that minima are falling at a much faster rate than maxima, it's reasonable to assume that gains will eventually accelerate to a faster rate than the 10 years average. A spread of the lowest 5 years will probably produce more realistic projections.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2020, 05:00:10 PM »
By just following the average extent gain of the last 10 years, the 365 day trailing average will drop below 10 million km2 for the first time by the end of February.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2020, 12:11:21 PM »
Latest images and animation. Ice gained in the Beaufort Sea over the previous two days has mostly disappeared now.
Will it return?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2020, 08:02:38 PM »
Animation of the annual max and min, from 1979 to present (click to play).

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2020, 12:22:22 PM »
Today's images and animation. The gains in the Beaufort Sea have persisted, so more evidence that the minimum has been passed.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 18, 2020, 04:24:24 PM »
Here's a quick summation of the 2020 melt season, at 2 week intervals. Max extent was around the March 4th, while min seems like Sept 13th (so the final period is not quite 2 weeks!).

I should probably mention the top one is an animation. Click to play!

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 11:03:36 AM »
Today's images and animation. There can be little doubt now that the passed the minimum, as gains in the Beaufort Sea easily outweigh any changes elsewhere.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 12:44:18 PM »
Today's images and animation.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 16, 2020, 07:52:03 PM »
Open water pushing closer to the N. Pole again. ~492 km away near Severnaya Zemlya and 504 km, N. of Franz Joseph Land

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 16, 2020, 07:34:48 PM »
Today's images and animation (a little delayed!)


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 11:39:58 AM »
Today's images an animation.
Clear gains in the Beaufort and CAA outweighing losses along the Kara and Laptev facing ice edges.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 14, 2020, 01:31:44 PM »
With the Laptev/ESS edge dropping in concentration steadily over the last 4 days, while simultaneously having the ice edge push north, I wonder if the warmer waters are getting pushed under the remaining ice due to the persistence of the southerly winds there?
If this had been 3 weeks back, I'd expect large parts with low concentration to melt out by now. No persistent cold temperatures are forecast in this region, and southerlies look like persisting, so I'm curious to see how things pan out.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 14, 2020, 01:03:06 PM »
Today's images and animation.
We now have open water present north of 85N on sections of the pack facing the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas. Southerly winds are forecast for the Laptev region throughout 7 days on the GFS...

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 13, 2020, 12:54:28 PM »
Today's images and animation.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 12, 2020, 11:52:22 PM »
Not "home brew" in any sense, but here's an animation of the Beaufort Sea so far this month, to add to the discussion.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 08:54:35 PM »
The problem, BFTV, in my case the criticism to WHO is all personal and is all mine. I have been receiving direct communications from WHO regarding COVID-19 thru the mass media. And the content and timing of these communications has been very, very unfortunate. I don’t have to watch videos with other’s opinions. I don’t give a damn about the WH response to WHO to start with.
We don’t need to get educated or indoctrinated for absolutely everything. Certain things are obvious to a person with certain education and rationality to judge them in one direction or another.

I honestly don't know what your criticisms are as I don't regularly participate in this thread.
The video is simply going through the reasons the US withdrew funding and examining the factual details of their claims, while dealing with related issues.
It's got nothing to do with indoctrination.

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 08:04:59 PM »
A great video dealing with many of the conspiracies and criticisms of the WHO


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 12, 2020, 12:41:26 PM »
Today's images and animation. A surprising northward shift in the ice edge north of Svalbard.
(As always, larger version of the animation on twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1304731118508429313)

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 11, 2020, 01:25:12 PM »
Today's images and animation

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 01:53:49 PM »
Weekly sea ice losses from July 1st

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 11:34:23 AM »
Today's images an animation. Those gains are easily balancing out the losses now, with the fracturing of ice in the centre of the pack a clear effect from the storm.
(larger animation on twitter)

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 11:54:20 AM »
Today's images and animation.
No sign of the storm yet...

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 01:51:21 PM »
Ice edge position over the last 14 days

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 12:00:54 PM »
Today's images and animation.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 11:10:28 AM »
Latest images an animation.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 06, 2020, 02:15:00 PM »
Today's images and slow animation. A significant increase in the Beaufort sea, significant loss on the Laptev/ESS side, the main talking points.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 05, 2020, 03:48:47 PM »
Projecting forward from the 4th, if we follow the 2010 melt rate we will get down to just 122k above the 2012 minimum...

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 05, 2020, 01:11:03 PM »
Today's images and animation. Surprisingly, very little northward movement on the Atlantic side compared to recent days.
(Larger versions of the animation, as always, on the twitter page)

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 05, 2020, 12:35:50 PM »
Uni Bremen site also appears to be down, so no sea ice updates from me until that issue is resolved.

Meanwhile, ECM has the storm arriving at 48 hours, peaking at 72.

EDIT: Bremen site is back!

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 02:58:53 PM »
Today's polarview S1 to complement BFTV's analysis. 08:00 UTC
There's still some low concentration areas beyond the ice edge despite the constant 'compressional drift'

I cut out the clouds to highlight the ice edge from the sentinel image and added it to the image from earlier (red/wine coloured pixels).
Open water is now 502 km from the N. Pole

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 01:58:31 PM »
Here's the (out of date :P) image of the ice edge progression on the Atlantic side. Almost within 500km of the N. Pole now (about ~509km off).

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 12:18:16 PM »
Todays daily images and animation.
(Larger gif on the twitter page)

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 03:04:39 PM »
I realize there have been some false alarms for storms developing from the Atlantic side over the last several weeks, but this is only Day 4 and is very similar on GFS and ECMWF. A little weaker on the Canadian forecast model. That would be a important late season stirring if it happens. My hunch is there is still a lot of melt potential.


Yep, I've been keeping an eye on these storms, some quite powerful, but was reluctant to say much until they move a bit closer. Definitely concerning now that they are in the day 4 range

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 12:07:49 PM »
Latest images and animation.
(Larger, higher res version of the animation on twitter as usual)


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 06:53:23 PM »
Though ye might like this.


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 03:40:51 PM »
Cheers, SH!

With today's near double century drop, the thought of reaching the 2012 minimum begins to seem a little less far fetched.
If we follow the melt of 2010, we'll end up just 125k off 2012...

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 10:31:50 AM »
Today's daily images and animation. The loss on the Atlantic side is really beginning to stand out now.
As usual, there's a larger version of the animation on the twitter page.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 08:34:09 PM »
That's really great BornFromTheVoid, many thanks.

A question, could you make a version that's much slower? And/or mark the loss per week with a colour? For me, that would mean even more information.
Your placing of dates and legenda & scale, and synchronising with the frames, and used font are also very good imo. You know your way around your tools :).
You have been a super visualizer and help for me.

Unfortunately I don't have time to do the animation this evening. But hopefully an image will suffice for now!

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 06:24:39 PM »
That's really great BornFromTheVoid, many thanks.

A question, could you make a version that's much slower? And/or mark the loss per week with a colour? For me, that would mean even more information.
Your placing of dates and legenda & scale, and synchronising with the frames, and used font are also very good imo. You know your way around your tools :).
You have been a super visualizer and help for me.

Cheers.
I think I get what you mean. Will try put a version of that together this evening.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 05:43:56 PM »
A side by side comparison of the NSIDC daily extent and AMSR2 concetration over the last 2 months (quite a big file, click to play)
Better quality version on twitter here: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1300821056131923969

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 10:40:18 AM »
Two concentration images, would let me add them in as an edit in the previous post...

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 10:37:59 AM »
Today's images and slow animation (slightly larger version on twitter)...

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 06:31:14 PM »
Latest projection... all of the previous 20 years are now going for the 2nd lowest again.
To equal 2012, losses would need to average 54,100 km² per day from now until September 16th (2012 minimum date). The previous record large loss for this period was 27,900 km² per day in 2010.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:27:26 AM »
The open water closest to the N. Pole, just north of Franz Joseph Land, is directly on the 85N. So it should move well north of that position over the coming days.

https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1300364243309649920

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:14:49 AM »
Today's images the slow animation covering 25th to the 30th. The a slightly larger version of the animation on my twitter page too.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 12:35:28 PM »
Today's images and slow animation (big file).
The increased concentration, which is can be seen in the recent area values, are becoming more apparent

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 29, 2020, 03:49:45 PM »
Animation of the winds and current sea ice coverage. Cheers to Freegrass for the wind animation.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 29, 2020, 11:59:28 AM »
Latest daily images are below, and the animation. Clearly the northward push of the Laptev/Kara/Barents ice edge is dominating the scene.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 28, 2020, 10:16:06 AM »
Here's today's images. Lots of concentration increases, with ice loss continuing on the Laptev and Kara side of the pack thanks to the winds.
And a bonus animation between the 23rd and 27th, with the change highlighted in last frame as requested!

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