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Messages - philiponfire

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 11, 2018, 04:01:37 PM »
About a month ago a big chunk fell off the right hand corner of the Petermann. Roughly 1sq Km went missing. today I noticed that the rats have been gnawing at the left hand end over then last few days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 17, 2018, 04:08:58 PM »
Melting Arctic Ocean sea bed may have revealed ancient Arctic Mammoth or Arctic Camel carcass. Will methane clathrates surface next? In any case this makes best Arctic Image of the Day for some time...

this is what happens to a whale carcase... 

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 17, 2017, 08:22:39 AM »
To assert that the death of this polar bear is anything to do with climate change is totally spurious unless there is evidence that this was a young healthy bear in the first place. looks to me like an old bear dying naturally.


2006-6914858.83 Kilometers Squared
2007-5658628.48 Kilometers Squared
2008-6957847.31 Kilometers Squared
2009-6649893.15 Kilometers Squared
2010-6326294.13 Kilometers Squared
2011-6230654.16 Kilometers Squared
2012-6308909.23 Kilometers Squared
2013-6528327.55 Kilometers Squared
2014-6815819.12 Kilometers Squared
2015-6446197.31 Kilometers Squared
2016-6335948.88 Kilometers Squared
2017-6301329.71 Kilometers Squared

For day 221 (day 222 will update today), the MASIE value is currently third place (ahead of 2007 and 2011).

I find your illogical reasoning for a record JAXA sea ice extent minimum value using MASIE data underwhelming.
Clearly you do not have  a clue what my reasoning is. I made no mention of any previous years other than 2012. I chose to talk about what I consider to be the RELEVANT data. In my opinion it is beyond doubt that the ice is in a terminal decline with an approximately five year cycle superimposed on it. Since it is apparent that things are changing rapidly I see no reason to look back as far as 2007. Well done you for spotting that in that year the ice was lower during August. I stand by my thinking however much you are underwhelmed. I will not respond again.

June I went for 2.75-3.25. then I wimped out and went up to 3.00-3.50 for July. As we reach the end of August voting I am going back to my original vote. 2.75-3.35 at the end of the day the facts still remain that the year started with very thin ice. There is still time for a huge area to go from being fractured spread out ice to being open water. Everything left to play for. MASIE has been lower than 2012 right up until a few weeks back then it went high but only a few 100 thousand sq km. Now that has all gone again and 2017 is back in the lead.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 10, 2017, 12:13:36 PM »
A big chunk fell off the Petermann 26th/27th July and I missed it!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 30, 2017, 04:17:24 AM »
MASIE has dropped by over 350,000 sq km from day 178 to 179 moving 2017 from behind 2012 to in front by almost 94,000 sq km. The game is on! 

Thanks Juan for starting this poll, this year indeed has lots of uncertainties so it's kind of fun to shoot in the dark. May I suggest for the sake of our psychology to make the bins overlapping? 2.75-3.25, 2.5-3.0 etc.?
I think that this is a really bad idea! it give people permission to be flaky. If people are in adjoining bins were they really voting for the same thing or not? Going to make for poor quality statistics is it not?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: April 30, 2017, 08:51:37 AM »
this seems to have stuck on 20th March can anyone explain what is happening please.

I have just calculated the final result of this poll. Below are the results for all three polls this year. It's interesting to see how the general ASIF opinion developed. I think if it weren't for a handful of people who keep voting below 1 million, never mind what the ice does, the group predictions would be even more decent.

Thanks for voting, everyone!
there is a number of people who clearly have no idea what they are voting on. I suggest that next year you introduce a cut off point of 2.5 million for this poll. arbitrary I know but then so is the upper limit.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 07, 2016, 02:15:14 PM »
In 30 days or so it is going to look a lot more like 2012.

Went Higher than most...staying higher than all, I think. 5-5.25.

I would love to understand your thinking. There has not been that much ice for ten years and all of the data suggests a lower number.

I am staying with 2.75 to 3.00. ( have now amended this to 3.00 to 3.25) that original vote wa a bit too pessimistic for the ice this year.
Here is why. We started the melting season with a lot of early melt such that things were way ahead at the end of May.
The ice was already to a large extent pulverised but the volume models were still saying and indeed still do say that there is a greater volume of ice than in 2012.
The volume issue does not make  a bit of sense to me. surely the greater the volume the greater the ice thickness , generally speaking unless there is a large additional extent (which there was not at this time).
Then we had June and what most people have labelled as being a slow down. Why was that? Well we did get a huge level of dispersal and that can translate into extent but it is a "false" extent. At that time of year I do not think that anyone is claiming that there has been a large increase in the physical amount of ice are they?  But where did all that dispersed ice go? it went into the peripheral seas into warmer water where it has or will melt.
So June ended with a relatively small "measured" extent reduction compared to 2012. But still very much in the game if you want to insist on "melt momentum".

July has seen a steady march of melting ice and yet more dispersal and the end of "big block" so that on the first of August the ice in all of the peripheral seas has either gone or is smashed into slush with a few still quite large ice cubes floating in it.
The southern route of the North West passage is looking quite navigable on the U Hamburg graphic although I am sure that there are still more than a few chunks there ready to destroy a careless navigator. Nates strait is fully mobile, Barents sea is ice free. Hudson bay and Baffin bay are going to melt out as much as they ever do.
The central arctic has some large polynyas in it already and the largest clearly defined floe that I have seen in recent days was under 20km in any dimension. The ice north of Greenland still does have more structure than on the Siberian side but it is very much in small pieces that a good wind is going to move around and into places where it will come to harm.
The Greenland sea is doing its normal thing.
All in all I expect a less than 4.00 figure as being the top end and unless we get some tranquil weather conducive to ice retention then my 3.00- 3.25 figure seems all too possible.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 24, 2016, 12:48:41 AM »
North Nares strait and Petermann fjord 2016 07 23

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 23, 2016, 09:06:00 AM »
the remains of "big block" still a decent sized chunk of ice and probably one of the largest distinct blocks in the arctic today.

Isn't this an interesting year?
The ice may not reach the state described in the rules of this poll but I think it is now a real possibility that there will be enough open water all the way to the pole for a small conventional boat to theoretically zigzag between the remaining dispersed floes and metaphorically plant a flag there.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 21, 2016, 10:27:42 AM »
Ice in Petermann fjord broken up more or less all the way back to the calving line.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 17, 2016, 01:52:36 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM vs ASMR2 Imagery
« on: July 13, 2016, 06:44:25 PM »
I came across the U Hamburg plots back in 2013 and very quickly abandoned the U Bremen plots as being far less useful to the point of being irrelevant. the colour changes just don't make sense (they are not sensitive enough) whereas after 4 years of studying them I am happy with what the different shades and textures of blue mean on the U Hamburg plots. Continuous fast ice that is going to break up shortly is a different blue to CAB dispersed ice (which will probably disappear or migrate as the dispersal gets moved by the wind) which is different to polynyas and so on. the colours represent different kinds of ice rather than purely representing concentration changes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 13, 2016, 08:16:15 AM »
Kane basin is on the move as is the ice bridge facing the Petermann fjord.

Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM vs ASMR2 Imagery
« on: July 13, 2016, 07:51:44 AM »
I find that the U Hamburg graphical presentation of the data is the most easily reconcilable with Eodis. It is like Eodis without the clouds.
I look at U Hamburg and then go for verification of what is peeping through the clouds.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 09, 2016, 01:12:01 AM »
Clear skies over Nares strait.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 07, 2016, 12:44:15 AM »
Kane basin shattered, we must be days away from transport in Nares strait.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 06, 2016, 08:26:04 AM »
The algae bloom north of Scandinavia.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 24, 2016, 07:55:25 AM »
A smashing time in Nares strait

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 23, 2016, 02:10:54 AM »
Ice on the (fast) move in Hudson bay. Images one day apart, 21st and 22nd June. EOSDIS 10km resolution.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 23, 2016, 02:07:30 AM »
OK! this is the picture of the beginning of the break up in the north end of Nares strait.

Hey Neven it was a reasonable and polite question no need to be sarcastic. the June poll is over 16 days before the end of June so obviously June is over. Why only have the poll open for ten days in the first place?

What exactly is the bad thing about beginning now to collect data and comments for the July poll which is presumably also going to close mid month? Maximising exposure and participation makes sense to me.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: June 20, 2016, 08:18:00 AM »
My "money" is on the last two weeks in August.

Juan how about starting a July poll? tempus fugit.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 20, 2016, 07:24:55 AM »
Floes have been breaking off regularly in Kane basin for the last month and now we can see the beginning of the break up of Nares strait from the north end.
Sorry this ended up being not what I intended at all. There were supposed to be two pictures not one. the picture showing is south of the Petermann glacier not the north end of the strait.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 13, 2016, 11:16:05 AM »
Blue ice well and truly broken up right in the middle of the ESS fast ice.
I seriously doubt the statement that the fast ice in this area is thick this year. There is no reason for it to be exceptionally thick. It is first year ice made during a winter when temperatures in general have been higher than normal.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 12, 2016, 07:08:54 AM »
Blue ice in Amundsen gulf beginning to break up!

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 11, 2016, 03:52:34 AM »
the ice bridge in Prince Regent inlet has broken up

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 09, 2016, 07:42:26 AM »
lovely clear image of the fast ice in the ESS breaking up.

dispersal at this time of year isn't a slow down, it is preconditioning the ice for more melting.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Gambling on The Ice
« on: June 08, 2016, 04:34:27 AM »
Uranium isn't a good answer due to the long term safety issues.
Nuclear power is the solution but using Thorium since a thorium molten salt reactor is automatically safe when it fails.

beginning of June and about  60% of us are already of the opinion that the minimum will be either around or lower than 2012. that does not look good for the ice.
I went for 2.5 as I am of the opinion that the ice is already thin and vulnerable this year. The ESS fast ice is dark blue with melt ponds. the Kara is a slushy. The temperature in Churchill is well above freezing.  Baffin bay is another slushy and Greenland sea isn't any more likely to stop the rot. I do not see anywhere that is going to slow down this avalanche.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« on: June 04, 2016, 06:10:17 PM »
I make use of MASIE and using that data set I predict 2.5 M km2 plus or minus 0.25 M Km2.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 02, 2016, 05:56:03 AM »
June 1 marks the first day in 2016 with below normal temps in the DMI graph A delayed melt onset might have a strong impact at the rest of the melt season!
What are you trying to prove? this is the second time in the last month you have come out with a totally ridiculous post suggesting that the ice isn't melting. It is, it has been, and it will continue to melt. Adding to the over 900,000 sq km of missing ice  too date when compared to 2012 ( using MASIE).

I voted 2016 as I think there is a real possibility that it will happen this year as an outlier. Next year being the more likely year for that and a new record low overall.


  "Melt in May has very little in common with melt occurring after the middle of August."

Agreed! but you seem to be missing the point. The high latitude ice does not exist in isolation. It is all part of one system and that system this year is already being loaded with visibly extra heat.

"The majority of melting in the later part of the melt season is bottom melt."
If there is an ever larger area of ice free water surrounding the CAB then that is inevitably warmer water than the average temperature of the remaining ice is it not?
Unless you want to assume that the water does not move or mix then the water at the ice edge will become warmer and more ice will slowly melt until refreeze begins.
Where is the mechanism that is going to dramatically slow down the ice loss now so that small levels of August ice loss are unimportant?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 21, 2016, 02:36:03 AM »

I don't think we'll see any substantial drops in SIE for the next 14 days as the "easy" ice is more or less gone now e.g no century break.


so how then do you explain the 182,000 sq km drop on MASIE between day 139 and 140?

I do not think this is the right question any more. in my opinion we are int territory where we need to be thinking in terms of how much not if.
as I mentioned in the melt season thread, MASIE just announced over 400,000 sq km drop in 3 days.
MASIE records show that on this day 2016 is already over 880,000 sq km lower than in 2012. It matters not the difference between MASIE and the other measurement systems. In a year to year comparison 880,000 is a big number. going to be hard to claw back that much slow down as we move into summer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 16, 2016, 10:16:38 AM »
AND if we look at MASIE for 2012 05 15 and then look at 2016 05 15 the difference is 882800 sq km less ice this year.
If things do not change we are in for a rollercoaster of a year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 16, 2016, 08:11:00 AM »
MASIE reports a huge 450,000 drop in extent in the last three days. summer is coming.

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