Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Unmex Chingon

Pages: [1]
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2020, 05:06:28 PM »
Jim - Are you calling it the maximum extent already? Yes or No - Or are you "kind of" in case it does happen and you can say you told us so?

I'm teasing a subset of Judith Curry's denizens.

Got it...  You did NOT call it yet then...

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 14, 2020, 03:41:09 PM »
Early maximum extent?

Who'd have thunk it? "Snow White"!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#comment-315058

Jim - Are you calling it the maximum extent already? Yes or No - Or are you "kind of" in case it does happen and you can say you told us so?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 19, 2018, 02:28:01 PM »
This may belong in the stupid questions but I will start here.

Given the rapid freeze, and it being late to start alongside above average temps, is the ice going to thicken up over the remaining freezing season?
My concern here is that even with extent growing quickly, I suspect the volume wont follow suit.

If this is correct at the end of the season, the melt will be rapid..... I am not fond of that idea but it makes sense in my head based on what I see here.

Generally speaking, in order for the ice to thicken up and accumulate, it must first...form  :o

I've never understood much the argument of "early freeze" which negatively affect volumes. It goes without saying that ice acts as a blanket over the seawater, insulating it from colder air based on a temperature gradient that is established along the section of the ice cover as it gets thicker. This is just thermodynamics. But on the other hand would we be worried for thermal insulation of seawater if there was a layer of ice 5-meters thick all aver the Arctic? Do not think so.

I'm a supporter of the Razor of Occam: when there is a simple explanation for something, that's probably the best explanation. Ice is growing quickly over the Arctic because it's fairly cold, temperatures have been dropping constantly in the last few weeks, and the synoptic configuration is favourable to accumulation of cold air over the Arctic basin. As simple as that, as long as this lasts...

I like this!  If there is no ice it is bad - if there is ice it is bad.  What scenario would be good?

Getting a lot of ice during this refreeze is a lot better than no ice at all - if the goal is get back to average arctic conditions.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 15, 2017, 06:17:29 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 28, 2017, 05:53:46 AM »
Would you rather there is a change to weather and ice recuperates?  OR would you want it to go to ZERO just to prove a point?

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 22, 2017, 03:17:46 PM »
Stupid question thread:  Are cars the biggest co2 problem?  And is the best solution = electric cars like the tesla?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 15, 2017, 05:25:55 AM »
We really need several Century drops....  Got to get to Zero Ice..  We need to be happy we are right!

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: I'm updating the ASIG next week. Any tips?
« on: March 31, 2017, 03:43:48 PM »
Great graph - but I'm a bit confused about the TO MIN bar at the end, and what the "Days Spent Below 16-3 Million km2" means.

The 'To Min' shows how many days there were between when the last million km2 breakpoint was reached and that year's extent minimum. For instance, was below five million km2 for 15 days before the minimum was reached, while 1990 was below seven million for 39 days. (Again, I didn't wish to color in those 'to-minimum tails as they both cluttered the graph and could confused the user.

"Days spent below" is an awkward way of phrasing, cribbed directly from Seke Rob's original. I've been thinking on this one, and will likely change it soon.

How often do you update the California Drought map?

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: March 13, 2017, 02:33:10 PM »
His attempt with sarcasm was lost....

Maybe.....

But the image was there as a screen shot.



"Los miembros de aqui son miembros. Y la mayoria son como los porteros despejando...."
------  Some unknown poet

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: March 12, 2017, 03:33:20 PM »
Starting to feel that 13,878,287 is the maximum (portions of crow & humble pie at the ready)

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxmaps/#ARC-LEA.T2

You are probably right...  It is going to be super hot over the next days  - no way there are increases.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: February 12, 2017, 06:46:57 AM »
I am with all here... ZERO maximum... That will show Trump....

12
Arctic sea ice / IJIS - Sleepy's Thread
« on: August 01, 2016, 05:30:16 AM »
Have at it! ;D

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 30, 2015, 04:08:54 PM »
Did I miss something?  Most of the years disappeared from the last 2 graphs , and 2015 is now third lowest?
  Thanks Espen for the daily updates!  But where did the other years go?

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: January 02, 2015, 06:29:00 AM »
Yeah, thanks for all the brilliant, beautiful graphs, vid! You've shown creativity and ingenuity in 2014, and even learnt to remain calm in the face of harsh attack waves. I hope you will carry on posting these updates on the sea ice also as we go into 2015.

Are you talking to yourself?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 31, 2014, 05:49:49 PM »
Extreme autozoom close–up. Guess what will happen on this very last day of the year?

I like this closeup a lot!  Can you do one like this with your trendline to show a close up of your math at 2030 and 2031 for annual average?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« on: December 31, 2014, 04:02:38 AM »
Thanks, JD. I'm always open for constructive suggestions, though in this case the reason there are discontinuous values on my graph is that it is only supposed to show abrupt drops in gain anomalies. The graph is made to emphasize particularly astonishing exceptions to the rule of steady ice growth in winter.

The numbers — annotations — themselves I have explained earlier in this thread, show how much ice volume was caused by the abrupt drop to not be added to the total value, compared to a no–drop situation.

I could choose the easy way and just show a wave–shaped graph for December volume through the years, but then I wouldn't add anything that hasn't already been shown and presented adequately by others. I don't feel like being a copycat here :)
  What would these abrupt drop get us for average daily volume in 2030 and 2031?  Do you have a trendline for that?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 25, 2014, 05:51:46 AM »
Merry Xmas to all... except to viddaloo if he can not answer my question!

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 25, 2014, 05:36:29 AM »
I suppose I should add that:

  • the post–2012 annual average extent position has already peaked at 6th lowest in 2013
  • post–2007 it peaked at 5th lowest in 2009 (returning to Lowest in 2011)
  • positions are a bit deceiving, as more and more years compete as time goes by
  • annual average volume peaked at 3rd lowest post–2007 and (perhaps) 5th post–2012
  • aae and aav were both 5th lowest already briefly for 27 days from Sep19 to Oct15

viddaloo(p) answer me please!
viddaloo - I am not real good at math and need your help.  What does you math trendline calculate the Average to be in both 2030 and 2031? 

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 24, 2014, 05:09:56 PM »
I suppose I should add that:

  • the post–2012 annual average extent position has already peaked at 6th lowest in 2013
  • post–2007 it peaked at 5th lowest in 2009 (returning to Lowest in 2011)
  • positions are a bit deceiving, as more and more years compete as time goes by
  • annual average volume peaked at 3rd lowest post–2007 and (perhaps) 5th post–2012
  • aae and aav were both 5th lowest already briefly for 27 days from Sep19 to Oct15

viddaloo - I am not real good at math and need your help.  What does you math trendline calculate the Average to be in both 2030 and 2031?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 23, 2014, 07:01:48 PM »
Viddaloo I asked this before - What does your math trendline calculate the average to be in 2030 and in 2031?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 22, 2014, 06:54:30 PM »
I made a necessary change to the Arctic Sea Ice Collapse graph, the center of the latest controversy.

I put the explanation about the latest data added to the graph in the chart legend, so that the date for the last annual average volume is left alone in the graph annotation. Hopefully, this will make the graph a bit easier to understand for all, regardless of their math or science background.

Viddaloo I asked this before - What does your math trendline calculate the average to be in 2030 and in 2031?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 22, 2014, 01:01:10 AM »
Yes, I think a lot of ice will melt faster and faster because of warming and insolation. I thought that was obvious, LOL.

No you think ALL the ice will melt.  "All" vs "A lot" is huge difference.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 17, 2014, 03:31:55 AM »
If you average the official sea ice volume numbers on a 365–day basis this is what you get. Just add a trendline and voila; July 2029.

Any person with a basic skill in math anywhere in the world could repeat this and get the exact same result. So your beef is really with math, not with me as a person.

What does you trendline state the avg will be from 2029 to 2040?

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 16, 2014, 09:59:21 PM »
No trap, JD. I'm just explaining grown–up human beings how zero divided by 365 is zero. Strangely, people take weeks on end to understand how 0/x = 0, and sound like they want to burn your house down because you've acquired the secret mathematical knowledge of calculating an average.

PS: Of course, with the data from Cryosat, we're looking at a much earlier collapse year than 2029.

I will continue for a little - since this is not a trap.

The math part I get - I know the formula.  My question is not regarding the formula calculation but the fact that variable X has to be Zero.  X/365=0 so  viddaloo - it is your prediction that X will be zero by 2029 or now even sooner?  Does viddaloo believe X will be zero in 2029 or sooner?  Does viddaloo thinks for 365 straight days Arctic sea ice will not exist around 2029?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 16, 2014, 04:28:24 PM »
Correct, Unmex. For the July 17th 2029 zero date, the volume for all days half a year earlier to half a year later would be exactly zero. That makes an arithmetic mean (or average) of 0.0.

Wow!  Your belief is that in 15 years - all through the winter - the arctic will be enjoying warm weather so that NO ice will form or refreeze.   8)

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 15, 2014, 11:29:04 PM »
LOL! Nice try, guys.

PS: I have enough data and an adequate method to say something about the annual average hitting zero. I don't have that for neither minimum nor maximum, so I just won't speculate. It's funny how guys who deny others the right to speculate freely change back and forth from that and to demanding that others speculate, when they explicitly do not want to speculate. Must be a higher form a logic that I just don't have access to yet!  ;D


You have enough data and method to say something about annual average hitting Zero, Correct? (just copying your quote)

IF the annual average is close to Zero - does that not imply 365 consecutive days of nearly Zero?  So the Maximum and Minimum would have to be close to Zero every single day of 2029 - am i missing something in my math different than yours?  You don't have to speculate the maximum and minimum if you know annual average is Zero - as those would have to be Zero as well.


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual Average Thread
« on: December 08, 2014, 05:01:48 PM »
Quote
"If your objection is about the trendline, then please suggest a different sort of trendline that you believe is more plausible, plus the reasoning behind this."

I am by no means a mathematician thus can't give you a trendline.  However, I am a basic logical person.  As you say - humans make mistakes and I as well as you are human. 

I believe we are discussing ANNUAL average and not ONE day of ZERO Ice, correct?   Then it is my opinion that even IF there were 6 months of ZERO ice - there would be a winter refreeze.  If I were to follow your projection under this scenario:

I would have to ascertain what your model would have as the lowest amount of winter ice.
I would guess you would have Zero for summer ice.
Then combine these 2 to make a limit line above zero.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: December 08, 2014, 06:24:21 AM »
I don't know why many of you assume such things. IMO none of you have explained this sufficiently. In 2013 you had 365 days. Each of those days had their total ice volume figure. Add day 1 + day 2 ... + day 365 into a year total and divide by 365. Et voila!

And if you wanted to calculate Day 2 of 2014 - you would start with Day 2 of 2013 + day 3...+day 365 2013 + day 1 2014 and divide all that by 365 - Right?  If that is how you calculate then - I have a question for you though - in 2031 this calculation will result in Zero?

That is correct, well, almost: The AAV for day 2014/02 is (Day 3 of 2013 + day 4...+day 365 2013 + day 1 2014 + day 2 2014) divided by 365.

Of course I can't say if that calculation will result in zero in 2031, as the data for 2030 and 2031 aren't really in yet! What I can say is that the trend we see in AAV from 1980 to 2014 seems to end rather horribly in zero sometime during 2031 or the early thirties.

If you look at the purple part of the graph, that is the start of that move towards zero. And from what I can see in the purple real data part, we are almost half–way to zero in ice volume, and if the trend is correct, we're about 70% of the way to zero measured in time.

So your projection is that the Artic will be with Zero ice for 12 consecutive months?  No refreeze at all during the winter seems to be a very bold prediction.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: December 07, 2014, 05:25:30 PM »
I don't know why many of you assume such things. IMO none of you have explained this sufficiently. In 2013 you had 365 days. Each of those days had their total ice volume figure. Add day 1 + day 2 ... + day 365 into a year total and divide by 365. Et voila!

And if you wanted to calculate Day 2 of 2014 - you would start with Day 2 of 2013 + day 3...+day 365 2013 + day 1 2014 and divide all that by 365 - Right?  If that is how you calculate then - I have a question for you though - in 2031 this calculation will result in Zero?

Pages: [1]