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Messages - weatherintel

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 04, 2013, 04:47:37 PM »
These 'punch' holes are normally caused by military A/C during rapid ascent - tho there may be something else going on here that I have not come across before.

Petermann is EXACTLY where it was last year on this date (area wise).  The shape of the terminus and it's position relative to the valleys north and south of it is unchanged. There are no major fractures sen either.  This summer has been the coldest in at least 7 years in NW Greenland as well.

For those following the energy inudstry initiatives in the arctic...


This is great... photo takeen of OPEN water at 90N in 1987 when 3 Subs surfaced in the open water in May, 1987.  Some accounts of open floes during the winter.

Actually - it is not uncommon for temps to get into the 90's in the interior of AK in June and Jul (clouds and stormier WX tend to eliminate those high temps by AUG).

Two years ago, the following article in DKOS ( noted:

The beach like boundary with open water at 89° north shows the thinness of the ice. Polar sea ice melt ponds are common in July but open water is not.  Source: NOAA PMEL

Accompanying WEBCAM image in the article shows either a lot of ponding (or as the author believed 'open water') taken on JUL 7, 2011.  I highly doubt we will see anything close to that in 2 weeks this year. The real POINT I was trying to make is that this open water/deep ponding has been going on quite a bit over the last 6 years - and seeing cracks in the ice near the NP is not that big a deal - anymore...


Yes - it was neeare the NP - otherwise all the WEB CAMS would vanish - lots of ponding and then open water.  That was the same year a woman swam at the NP_ in the open waters.  The Buoy's are not stationary to be sure - they all drift off the mark - but close enuf for GOVT work.

Some may find the NP WEBCAM image from early AUG 2007 'interesting':

LOTS of open water at the NP - which has become almost 'normal' in the past 10 years.  I think too much emphasis has been placed on the 'breakup' near the Pole this year; especially when viewing the MODIS imagery which really doesn't show any 'open' water yet near the Pole. 

Extremely unusual WX pattern persists in the NH; substantial rains in Northern CA yesterday/overnite; and an unusually large and persistent upper level TROF expected to develop over the eastern US in a few days with some of the 'coldest ' late June/early JUL temps expected east of the Mississippi.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Predictions
« on: June 15, 2013, 04:16:49 PM »
A prediction of sorts - last 8 global model runs and other long range forecast tools strongly point to a hemispheric pattern change at the end of June - with surface high pressure becoming the dominant' system to occupy the arctic basin.  This evolves as the primary polar low over the arctic 'splits' into 2 major vortex's, each moving south: one over Hudson Bay and one into North Russia in about 10-12 days - followed by weakening at the start of July.  FAR too early to determine if this will remain the basic pattern for all of July - but trends and seasonal forcing all support it.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather
« on: June 01, 2013, 11:10:38 PM »
For quite some time, I along with other collegues here in Chicago have been thinking this will be a summer more reminiscent of the 1980's.  Summers that never really stuck around, with numerous cold frontal passages and heavy T-storms ahead of them.  There is nothing in the ensembles, or ocean temp patterns that indicate any change for the next 3-4 weeks.  Indeed, La Nina has re-appeared over the past month (not offically, as it takes 3 straight months of ONI values beloww -0.5) but it's there for the moment.


One of the largest single areas of 'Blue Ice' I can recall seeing:

The melt-out of this region will be fast and furious when it starts.


Consequences / Re: Weird Weather
« on: May 26, 2013, 07:35:48 PM »
As an FYI - Oklahoma City is the 'Tornado Capital' of the world!  149 Tornadoes have touched down in the immediate vacinity of OKC since 1890 - with over 100 causing significant damage.  (Moore is technically within the 'city limits'). A fairly complete chart of these tornadoes (not including this year) can be found here:

A 1 in 10 million chance of a home being struck by a tornado does NOT apply to OKC.  Just as the chances of being struck by lightning (1 in 7mil) does not apply to the state of Florida where 700 people/yr are struck.


For the first time in a long time, we have a strong southerly flow acrose the Aleutians and Bering Sea northward - with the first solid hints of a hemispheric pattern change (seasonally forced) that should see bring Temps into the 50's and 60's in the Interior of AK - along with a decided warming trend well north into the high arctic of North America in about 10-14 days.


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