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Messages - Yuha

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 06, 2020, 05:51:03 PM »
Space for employee parking seems limited.  Perhaps they anticipate most will travel by train.  Or robotaxi! ;)  (Note “transit staion” at top of map.)

I think you are deceived by the scale. Just eye-balling there seems to be about 200,000 m2 of parking space which should be enough for about 10,000 cars.

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 04, 2020, 11:16:26 PM »
Its reminiscent of when Steve Case Jobs was a genius & AOL Apple was worth $1.25 1011

Fixed that for you.  ;)

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2019, 07:58:42 AM »
Actually GMT is equivalent to UT1 time. They are based on astronomical measurements. Because the Earth's rotation is slowing down, a day lasts 24 hours and a small fraction of a second according to GMT/UT1.

On the other hand, by UTC a day always last either exactly 24 hours or 24 hours and one second based on atomic clocks. That leap second is added occasionally to keep UT1 and UTC within 0.9 seconds of each other.

Source: Wikipedia

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 16, 2019, 06:33:32 PM »

From 2016 through 2019, Argentina’s government awarded contracts for 6.5 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity, helping make wind and solar the country’s cheapest unsubsidized sources of energy. Roughly 5 GW of this capacity is already either in operation or under construction, attracting nearly $7.5 billion in new investment and creating more than 11,000 new jobs.

How is it "unsubsidized" when the government is footing the bill?
Terry


I don't know what the case is here, but there may have been an auction or an other form of competition and the contracts were awarded to the lowest bidders. Then the prices would have been determined by free market competition, not by the government.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: September 30, 2019, 03:38:00 PM »
Never mind the radiation dose to the astronauts.

There are certainly many issues in using nuclear powered rockets, but protecting astronauts from radiation is actually one of the most important reasons to use them.

Using chemical rockets the travel from Earth to Mars takes at least 6 months and the astronauts will receice a substantial dose of stellar and cosmic radiation during that time. Using nuclear powered rockets might reduce the travel time to two months, reducing the radiation dose to one third.

Protecting the astronauts from the radiation of the nuclear reactor is probably quite similar to protecting the crew of a nuclear powered submarine.

6
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 30, 2019, 04:30:01 AM »
Three Rescued After Tugboat Sinks in Hurricane Lorenzo
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo

Quote
At a Glance
  • The Bourbon Rhode sank Thursday with 14 crew on board.
  • An emergency beacon indicated the boat was in the center of Hurricane Lorenzo.
  • The three survivors are reported to be in good health.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: September 22, 2019, 02:54:26 PM »
Alexander, all children are a burden to the society until they grow up and start working and paying taxes.

Your Moroccan colleague, on the other hand, did not milk the Belgian society for his first 18 years or so. He came in and probably started working productively and paying taxes almost immediately. In that sense, he might be more profitable to Belgium than you are.

The extra benefits your colleague gets are not for him, they are for his children with the idea that they will pay that money back to the society later.

So the best thing, for Belgian society, is that those children get a good education, are well integrated into the society, and become productive, tax paying citizens.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 08, 2019, 11:57:44 PM »
The paper by Jeff Dahn's lab is open access: http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/166/13/A3031.full

They likely used pouch cells for convenience. They took commercial pouch cells (NMC532), opened them up, dried them, added their own electrolytes, and resealed the pouch. I imagine this is much easier to do with pouch cells rather than cylindrical cells.

With Jeff Dahn as a consultant, Tesla has very likely done similar experiments in their labs using their own chemistries and cylindrical cells. Jeff Dahn probably knows about Teslas's experiments but is not allowed to tell anyone, not even his own group at Dalhousie, and certainly not reveal anything in an academic paper. For all we know, some things learned from those experiments might already be in use in Tesla's batteries.

10
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 17, 2019, 09:42:12 PM »
Add NOAA & BEST to the list of July 2019 as warmest on record.  GISS should be there too once it's released.  BEST came in at +0.84°C above the 1950-1981 baseline.  A fairly large margin over the previous record: July 2016 +0.72°C.

GISS (V4) came in at +0.93°C, clearly warmer than the +0.85°C of July 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 04, 2019, 03:52:51 PM »
Positive feedback appreciated.

The ice disagrees.  ;D

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« on: August 04, 2019, 03:40:37 PM »
Wipneus, the thickness map in your post #2992 is last year's map not this year's.

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:06:08 PM »
So far SMB gain for the year nearly 100 GT less than normal, but not in the same league as 2012.
My guess is for a another 50GT or so of SMB loss to go.

To put these numbers into context, the 2012 SMB anomaly of about 330 GT corresponds to a bit under 1 mm of sea level rise.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:18:06 AM »
It's completely unphysical and the only utility it has is giving a ballpark figure for HALF the energy equation resulting from an ice-free Arctic. Don't waste any time trying to interpret this one any further than that.

The paper actually says that (though its hidden in the discussion section):

Quote
The present study focuses on the additional radiative heating from the complete loss of Arctic sea ice, but it does not estimate the amount of global warming that would be associated with this level of ice loss.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 22, 2019, 09:56:14 AM »
The Ok Glacier hasn't been OK for a long time and now it's not even a glacier anymore.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 09:51:17 AM »
As long as sun is still high, sunshine is the worst for the ice in the long term, but the full effect is not immediate. A lot of the insolation goes through the ice and warms up the water below, and some of that heat may remain stored there for weeks. This is the heat that drives bottom melt in late melt season and provides most of the melting power of storms. Thus storms are most effective in melting the ice when they follow a long period of sunny weather.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 16, 2019, 09:17:07 AM »
2012 was not unusually compact in September but pretty close to other years except 2016.
The abnormal year in terms of compactness is 2016, which had very exceptional dispersion in late August and early September.

18
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 15, 2019, 03:54:10 PM »
@Stephan
Where do you get those July figures?
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ has been stalled since July 1st.
My guess would be from here (Global Monitoring Divison from NOAAs ESRL)

And more specifically here:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

These are separate measurements from Scripps:

Quote
They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [Keeling, 1976]. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then [Thoning, 1989].

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 09, 2019, 11:53:48 PM »
A Danish fund management company is studying the feasibility of a 2.2 GW wind farm off the Victoria coast in Australia.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-first-offshore-wind-project-moves-forward-with-labour-market-study-33139/

There seems to be massive renewable energy projects under development all over Australia.
In addition to Victoria we have:

South Australia

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/07/04/south-australia-gives-500-mw-solar-farm-plus-250-mw-battery-plan-the-go-ahead/

Quote
A massive solar-plus-storage project with a $1.17 billion price tag (US$822 million) has been waved through by the South Australian government. The facility will feature 500 MW (AC) of solar PV generation capacity collocated with 250 MW/1,000 MWh of battery storage around five kilometers northeast of Robertstown.

Northern Territory

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/26/pre-assembled-concept-proposed-for-10-gw-australian-pv-project/

Quote
Ambitious plans have been announced for a 15,000-hectare solar array near Tennant Creek in Australia’s Northern Territory. If built, the 10 GW solar farm would be the world’s biggest solar park and be coupled with a massive battery with an unspecified capacity.

The project would export electricity to Darwin and overseas to Singapore. According to David Griffin, managing director of Singaporean developer Sun Cable, the mega project’s transmission capacity would stand at 2.5 GW and power would be transported via 3,800km of high voltage direct current submarine cables to meet 20% of the city state’s power demand.

Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia (mentioned at the end of the NT article)

Quote
The Barkley project announcement is not the only gigawatt scale project in Australia’s pipeline. A construction ceremony at a project boasting 1.5 GW of solar and 500 MWh of energy storage 100km north of Brisbane was held in February and another massive project was waved through in Queensland two years ago, when Singapore-based Equis Energy secured approval to begin constructing the 1 GW Wandoan South Solar Projects.

Australia’s other mega renewables projects are awaiting a regulatory nod – a 4 GW renewable energy hub for New South Wales has been proposed by Energy Estate and MirusWind. In Western Australia, the 11 GW Asian Renewable Energy Hub is intended to export power to Southeast Asia via subsea cables and supply big miners and green hydrogen projects in the Pilbara region. That project has been put forward by a consortium comprising Vestas, Intercontinental Energy, CWP Energy Asia and Macquarie Group.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:25:06 AM »
When comparing this year with 2012, keep in mind that the areas where 2012 had much more ice are Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS, all of which melted completely.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 02:39:27 PM »
The dispersion used here means "dispersion of the pack in floes separating to each other". The examples we have today is Beaufort and somehow Kara. Caused by storms, usually.
Many examples you bring are called Trasport, or export, ect

Yes, dispersion means ice flows separating from each other leaving gaps between them.
The opposite, compaction, means pushing flows together so that the gaps close up.

At the edge of the ice pack, winds pushing the ice outwards cause dispersal, while winds pushing the ice inwards cause compaction.

Inside the pack, dispersal can be caused by cyclonic winds (winds rotating anti-clockwise) in a low pressure system, while the anti-cyclonic winds of a high pressure system tend to cause compaction.

Dispersal is not a sign of melt, as it is sometimes interpreted. However, dispersal reveals the size of the flows and that may tell something about the thickness of the ice: the larger the flows the thicker the ice. In compact ice you cannot see the size of individual flows.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 08:36:18 AM »
I don't agree with Michael Hauber on everything but he is correct about two things.

1. There was much more dispersal in that area in 2012 than this year. Just check the Worldview.
However, this kind of dispersal is not caused by melt but by cyclonic winds. So the dispersal is not a sign of strong melt, but it does make the ice more vulnerable because it lowers the albedo.

2. This is area is an important reason why 2012 went so low. The summer 2012 wasn't exceptionally warm and sunny in the ESS sector but still the extent there ended up lower than any other year except 2007. The dispersal might have contributed to this but there was two more important factors. First, check out the melt pond fractions in Neven's latest blog post. This area had strong melt ponds already in May. Second, the GAC totally obliterated the ice here. Maybe it would have melted anyway but the GAC made sure of it.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 10:02:32 AM »
Here is a tentative ranking of subjective whiteness from whitest to bluest/greenest for June 5th from 2000 to 2019, based on https://go.nasa.gov/2WWvSva these Worldview settings.

1st (lightest): 2004
2nd: 2000
3rd: 2003
4th: 2009
5th: 2006
6th: 2018
7th: 2002
8th: 2008
9th: 2014
10th: 2013
11th: 2001
12th: 2017
13th: 2010
14th: 2005
15th: 2015
16th: 2011
17th: 2019
18th: 2007
19th: 2016
20th (darkest): 2012

And 2012 was just getting started on June 5th and continued to darken over the next days.
I made a gif about it a couple of years ago:


24
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 11, 2018, 10:59:05 PM »
So why build offshore wind if it's much more expensive than onshore?  Because it can be built close to where the demand is.

Also offshore wind is probably more constant with fewer windless periods.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 29, 2018, 11:29:55 AM »
Steven, that's quite a contrast in the SMOS images.  But I'm still a bit curious about the extremely high number of grid cells in 2018 that are consistently reporting 100.0% concentration.
It could be weather/cloud related. There is similar interference on ascat and amsr2.

I suspect it's melt ponds.
2015 had one of hottest and sunniest Julys on record and all of the ice may have been covered by melt ponds then. In contrast, July 2018 has been quite cool in central arctic.


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 04:01:22 AM »
So early in June, it may actually slow ice loss because the clouds decrease the solar insolation when it's starting to peak.  Late in August, when the ice is thin, it may accelerate the melting by breaking up the pack and spreading it out so that more ice is exposed to the warmer water.

That is very true but the NSIDC post also says this:

Quote
“Having said that,” Serreze said, “the impacts of an individual storm may not follow that rule, and maybe importantly, the rules are starting to change.”

This particular storm is unusually strong but short lived and pulls in a lot of heat from Siberia.

A big factor is how much of the precipitation is rain and how much snow. The main effect of rain is not to melt ice but to melt snow or even just turn it darker. Even wet snow fall could reduce albedo. Right now, close to the maximum insolation, just a bit of darkening could be enough to create melt ponds once the sun returns.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: June 08, 2018, 07:13:28 PM »
The polar bear made it out of that window?! No way!  ???

Well, when you're trying to skip out on the hotel bill, motivation can work wonders.  I hear the charges were un-bearable.

I heard he left because they didn't that the bear necessities.

I heard the bear ran out because they ran out of beer.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 08, 2018, 06:59:01 PM »
World’s largest li-ion battery and 707 MW of solar power in Colorado proposal
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/07/worlds-largest-li-ion-battery-and-707-mw-of-solar-power-in-colorado-proposal/

Quote
If the Preferred CEPP plan is implemented, it would see the utility move from 28% renewables as of 2017, to 53% by 2026. The most important piece of all of this are deep emissions reductions. By 2026 generation serving Xcel’s Colorado customers would emit nearly 60% less CO2 and 90% less SO2 and NOX, compared to 2005 levels.

And this is coming at a bargain for these customers. When these bids came out back in January, CarbonTrack.org noted that at 3.6¢/kWh for solar+storage 74% of coal would be would priced higher. With the new pricing of the solar+storage turning out to be 3.0-3.2¢/kWh – 100% of coal powered generation is now more expensive.


29
Tesla will announce overall production figures, and likely some rate-per-week data, shortly after June-end, because they know we’re all nuts about whether they will have hit their promised 5,000 Model 3 a week number. ;)

But more details will come in the 2Q financial letter and the (now infamous) financial analyst conference call, which won’t happen until early August.

I'm afraid we may have to wait until Q3 results in early November to get a clearer picture of Tesla's status. The Q2 results will still be muddied by the Model 3 production problems as well as the US tax credit threshold and even China's import tariff cut.

30
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: June 07, 2018, 04:26:49 PM »
from Earth Observatory, 6 June 2018: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92238&src=eoa-iotd
End of the Journey for Iceberg B-15Z?

Still visible on worldview on June 4: https://go.nasa.gov/2JohX6Q
It has split along the fracture.

Next day it is barely visible through the clouds, but it is still high enough to cause ripples in the clouds.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: June 07, 2018, 03:47:57 PM »
Svalbard has now had 90 months in a row with above normal monthly temperatures.
All Norvegian Arctic island weather stations recorded May temperatures at least 5C above normal.

https://www.met.no/nyhetsarkiv/varmeste-mai-noensinne

Google translated:

Quote
All the five Arctic long-distance stations, Bjørnøya, Hopen, Svalbard airport, Ny-Ålesund and Jan Mayen set record for the warmest May-month. Bjørnøya was the mildest station with a mean temperature of 3.7 ° C, which is 5.1 ° C above the normal. Svalbard airport had an average temperature of 1.8 ° C (6.0 ° C above normal). Svalbard airport has not had a single monthly temperature below the norm, as of December 2010, ie 90 months in a row. Kvitøya was coldest at -2.8 ° C on average (no normal yet). Ny-Ålesund had a mean temperature of 1.6 ° C (5.6 ° C above the normal). At Hopen, the monthly temperature was 0.3 ° C, which is 5.0 ° C above normal and the first time the station has an average temperature above 0 degrees in May. Jan Mayen had a mean temperature of 2.8 ° C, which is 5.1 ° C above the normal.

32
If you look at the map I posted above yesterday, one might wonder what those who live in places like Pakistan, Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia thinks of this study? Those who still are alive that is...

And what about Africa, India and Bangladesh?

Nevertheless, the main conclusions of the paper are:

Quote
Two results must be highlighted. First, the impact varies across areas, and populations living in warmer and, in some cases, poorer regions are expected to experience a heavier burden. Second, increases in temperature-related excess mortality are substantially reduced in scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit greenhouse emissions and further warming of the planet, and stricter mitigation approaches are associated with larger benefits.

33
There should be more of places like the EV Experience Center in this Fully Charged video:



34
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 22, 2018, 12:04:42 PM »
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/5/18/17359730/wind-solar-power-grid-electricity-managers

@drvox (who is somewhat skeptical of renewables)

I'm not sure why you think that David Roberts is skeptical of renewables. I think the last paragraph of that story summarize his attitude pretty well:

Quote
The renewable energy future is rapidly becoming the present. Everyone in and around the power sector needs to snap to and get ready for it.

Maybe you got that impression because many of his writings are not about praising the benefits and advances of renewables but about analyzing the obstacles and trying to find realistic ways to overcome them.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Trains, Trams, Subways and Buses
« on: May 22, 2018, 10:47:31 AM »
I take that back.  I recently heard about a bride so distraught about her sister (?) missing her wedding that the head cabin crew member and pilot "remembered something that they had to do" and left the plane for a few minutes.  I'm guessing small local plane. 

Reminds me of this recent event:

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/wednesdays_papers_finns_top_soot_stats_rules_for_ex-ministers_tourist_family_train_switch/10085198

Quote
A family of three on a tourist holiday in the north of Finland found themselves in a pickle when they failed to disembark from a Helsinki-Rovaniemi train in time at the station in Kemi, where they had hotel reservations. It was Sunday night, past the bedtime of the family's 5-year-old son, with no guarantee of a place to sleep at the next stop in Tervola. The -21 degree temperature made things seem doubly bleak, until conductor Sakari Puotiniemi stepped in.

"After we left Kemi I did my rounds along the train cars, and encountered this lost family," he says in IL. "I knew another train in the opposite direction would be along soon, so I made a few phone calls."

Puotiniemi says that trains can't usually just be stopped in the middle of the tracks on a whim, but that unusual times call for unusual measures.

The trains screeched to a halt side by side on parallel tracks, and the family galumphed through the knee-deep snow to the train that would deliver them safely to their original destination.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« on: May 22, 2018, 09:06:34 AM »
I too was surprised by the low drop in volume but I can see why I rather than PIOMAS may have been mislead. While my focus has been on the warmth in Central Arctic (as displayed by the DMI graph) and Barents (where the most dramatic changes are happening), it's actually been fairly cold in many regions including CAA, Hudson, Baffin, Kara and Laptev.

Additionally, the lack of Fram Strait export is likely a contributing factor.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: May 09, 2018, 03:37:06 AM »
Rotor Sail Installed on Viking Grace for Wind Propulsion
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/18835-rotor-sail-installed-on-viking-grace-for-wind-propulsion.html

Quote
The Rotor Sail Solution will cut fuel consumption and reduce carbon emissions by up to 900 tons annually, the company said.

The cylindrical Rotor Sail unit installed on the Viking Grace is 24m in height and 4m in diameter, and is a modernized version of the Flettner rotor; a spinning cylinder that uses the Magnus effect to harness wind power to propel a ship. The solution is fully automated and senses whenever the wind is strong enough to deliver fuel savings, at which point the rotors start automatically – optimizing crew time and resource.


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic sea ice minimum early prediction
« on: March 28, 2018, 07:33:45 PM »
My rough estimate of probabilities:
- 1/3 for 1 or 2 (most likely 2)
- 1/3 for 3 or 4 (most likely 4)
- 1/3 for 5 or higher (most likely 6)
My vote goes to 3 or 4 for now.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: February 05, 2018, 12:51:07 PM »
Apart from the insane technological challenges of traveling a spacecraft through a tube at nearly the speed of sound, and the apparently insurmountable economical challenges of making this system operate below the cost of plain old MagLev or HSR, there is the issue of catastrophic failures.

So let us say that a terrorist places a bit of C-4 explosive on the outside of the tube, and detonates it. It blows a hole in the tube.

All high speed transportation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. If a terrorist derails a MagLev or HSR train running at full speed, I don't think there will be many survivors.

40
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 19, 2018, 11:47:20 AM »
James Hansen et al. have a quick analysis of the 2017 GISS data:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20180118_Temperature2017.pdf

Quote
On the other hand, the 2017 global temperature remains stubbornly high, well above the trend line (Fig. 1), despite cooler than average temperature in the tropical Pacific Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 5), which usually provides an indication of the tropical Pacific effect on global temperature. Conceivably this continued temperature excursion above the trend line is not a statistical fluke, but rather is associated with climate forcings and/or feedbacks. The growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated in the past decade. There is also concern that polar climate feedbacks may accelerate.



Similar analysis for earlier years (and a lot more) can be found on Makiko Sato's Global Temperature page:
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/

Many interesting graphs on her "More Figures" page, like this one:


41
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 18, 2018, 07:46:02 PM »
Lockheed Martin flow battery launching this year.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/lockheed-martin-eyes-solar-partners-for-new-flow-battery

Quote
“We acquired [MIT spin-out] Sun Catalytix in 2014 and we have been investing in that product for four years now. We have prototypes up and running at our Massachusetts facility and we are targeting a commercial launch of the product in late 2018,” Battaglini said on the sidelines of the World Future Energy Summit (WFES) in Abu Dhabi.

Battaglini claimed its flow systems will be price competitive “right out of the gate” and expects that cost to continue to fall.

42
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 18, 2018, 03:04:08 PM »
I'm a bit late here but: the typical delay on GMST from ENSO is approx. 3 months, not 10. This is pretty persistent across events.

Tamino did some work on this. What he found was a 2 month linear lag effect and also a non linear 10 month lag effect.

There is a better post than this but can't find it atm
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/by-request-adjusted-satellite-and-surface-data/
Quote
The adjustment for el Niño is more sophisticated now, allowing for both a prompt and a longer-delayed response, and allowing for a seasonal effect on the el Niño influence.

There's some more details in this post:
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

Quote
The best model I’ve found so far (there’s a lot more to test) involves a linear el Niño effect which lags only 2 months behind the el Niño itself, a nonlinear el Niño effect which lags 10 months, and a seasonal effectiveness of the el Niño impact.

One of the commenters to that post, Kevin C, mentions:

Quote
A while back I was looking at the El Nino signal in the SST data, divided by longitude into Ocean basins: E Pacific, W Pacific, Indian and Atlantic. If I remember correctly, the El Nino temperature response appears first in the E Pacific, than weakly in the Indian, then after about 10 months in the Atlantic.

43
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: January 16, 2018, 08:38:38 PM »
A nice series of pictures and videos from the Swiss Polar Institutes circumnavigation expedition in early 2017.
https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2017/antarctica-voyage/index.html#11

Fascinating, well worth the time to watch it through. Some highlights:
  • Rotten ice under Mertz glacier
  • A brittle star catching a living fish, which has never been observed before.

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 14, 2018, 01:43:16 PM »
To me it seems that cobalt-free batteries are the key. I don't see massive investment to increasing cobalt production because the peak in cobalt demand is likely to be short-lived due to cobalt-free batteries. Slower increase in cobalt production and battery chemistries with less cobalt (NMC 811) can keep up the growth for a while, but in a few years we might see a temporary slow down until/unless competitive cobalt-free batteries reach mass production.

Here's a recent scientific article on the issue:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.08.019

There's some useful information but their future projections are rather vague and speculative. Anyway, here's one of their charts:



Quote
Figure 4. Cobalt Use in LIBs Including Historic Supply Broken Down by Country and Projected Supply Overlaid with Current and Projected Demand

Stars show the demand in tonnes in 2016 and the L and H scenarios in 2025. Dashed lines show supply projections based on published capacities and capacity expansions. Shaded supply shows linear growth in supply.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 08:01:31 PM »
I've added .m4v, .avi and .mov to the list of allowed attachment files. I've changed settings in the Simple Audio Video Embedder mod so that .avi and .mov get played as well. .m4v wasn't in the list, so I'm not sure whether it will be played.

Thanks, Neven!

To test it, here's the HandBrake m4v. It's the same file as the mp4 I posted earlier with only the file name extension changed.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 05:16:35 PM »
if I change that manually to .mp4 it seems to play ok but only loads as an attachment, does not play here. So I ran it by an online converter to get a legitimate mp4 that is playing for me at least.

Exactly the same for me. The first file does not show but plays ok when downloaded. The second one works perfectly on both Firefox and Chromium.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 04:38:43 PM »
Here's a one last try with the mp4 format, this time converting it using HandBrake, which is a popular open source video conversion tool.

HandBrake actually produces a file with the extension .m4v, which is Apple's version of .mp4. The HandBrake manual says that you can just change the extension to .mp4 but this might not work with QuickTime. I'm posting it with .mp4 since the forum does not allow .m4v. Neven, is it possible to add m4v to the allowed file types?

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 01:21:49 PM »
I had the same problem with the mp4s and the problem seems to be that it uses an older version of mp4 known as MPEG-4 Part 2:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MPEG-4_Part_2

This is not supported on my browser but a newer version known as H.264 or MPEG-4 Part 10 or MPEG-4 AVC is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H.264/MPEG-4_AVC

Below is one of A-Team's mp4s converted to the new format.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 07, 2018, 10:53:48 AM »
Here's an extensive Stanford report on Chinese solar industry:

The New Solar System: China’s Evolving Solar Industry And Its Implications for Competitive Solar Power In the United States and the World
https://www-cdn.law.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017-03-20-Stanford-China-Report.pdf

It includes a lot of information on Chinese subsidies but does not comment on their legality. However, it seems to say that using tariffs is in any case an ineffective way of addressing the issue. One of their recommendations is this:

Quote
Embrace the reality of a globalizing solar industry. U.S. policy bearing on solar should reorient fundamentally so that it seeks to leverage, not defeat, China. More than ever before, the solar industries in China and the United States are intertwined: Shareholders across the globe invest in both of them, capital moves between them, many of the same companies are active in both of them, and market dynamics in one influence fortunes in the other. Key players in both countries increasingly believe that they will profit more if each country focuses on exploiting its comparative advantages in the globalizing solar industry than if it orients policy around trying to beat the other. That conclusion marks a major shift from the thinking that prevailed just five years ago, when the solar sector was more a patchwork of small and distinct national industries than the interconnected, international force it is becoming today.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 04, 2018, 01:41:16 AM »
NH snow cover is also interesting right now:

According to Rutgers Snow Lab, Eastern Europe is the main area lacking snow.

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