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Topics - timallard

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Thesis: That cold air is prevented from traveling in west-to-east Rossby style jetstream flow during winter by the warm oceans disrupting such and warming the air which turns north.

Observing wind and temperatures on has shown below freezing air cannot exist long over the oceans and to reach low latitudes it can only move south over land, the continents and not over the sea.

Then, the warmer oceans have large-scale bound vortices, cyclones & anti-cyclones that work together in the North Pacific to move warm moist air northeast where it cools, dries then circulates south over land.

These prevent the Holocene jetstream from forming, no longer is there a procession of storms tied to a cold, dense jetstream that migrates eastward across North America in Rossby wave flow, that's disrupted.

Watching this winter in the Seattle area where cold northerlies dominated and temperatures stay below 50F/10C for weeks and this cold has persisted to create the expectation that it could continue and be the new normal for global atmospheric circulations.

So the thesis is that cold air cannot create Rossby wave flow due to the ocean heat disallowing transit at Holocene latitudes and cold only reaching low latitudes over land during winter and possibly all year; posting here for others to consider and comment.

Background: From about the last decade the jetstream took to looking like a goat's head at times and couldn't penetrate the west coast sending most flow back north over the blockage that my thinking was from it being warmer thus less dense to manage getting over the mountains with a persistent high-pressure over the midwest and central USA.

Today: The cold air from East Siberia, a northwesterly hits the Bering Sea and turns right back north aided by a persistent cyclone over the eastern Bering Sea that's quasi-stationary, fading & reappearing along with a bound cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska and typically an anti-cyclone off the Oregon-California latitudes.

These have one side over warm ocean the other cold land, significantly they can be defined as bound votexes by the heat-transfer of warm-moist air north and cold south exclusively over land what's being observed.

This implies weather is now being driven by the ocean heat, not polar cold circulating in a jetstream driving cyclonic storms tied to a Rossby wave progression west-to-east.

Tentative Conclusion:  Weather in the northern hemisphere is now being driven from the bottom of the atmosphere up, not a cold polar circulation forcing its way south using a high-density stream of air.


Erosion Control Construction Refinement Diagram
Phases and methods along with refining the technique with erosion control projects nearby.

A solution to slow down accelerating Arctic warming and to forestall the inevitable is damming Bering Straits to 1/100 its volume flow to create a year-round sea-ice refuge.

To do this using modified Dutch levee & dam methods for deeper water learning and refining the machines & technique by raising and restoring villages being lost.

When ready to then build a weir dam & shipping locks at St. Lawrence Island, then with reduced flow to build ice-polders protecting sections to allow the bottom to refreeze, that allowing the chance to remain all year in some areas.

Then to build atolls around the methane flares to refreeze them, this may be fairly fast as the bubbles create an up-flow pulling in colder water at the sides all winter.

Using the ice-polders and larger areas calmed by levee sections and shoals to then corral and sustain ice much longer if not year-round in half the Bering Sea, all of the Chukchi Sea and extend into the Beaufort on the Alaska side, to levee & shoal the entire Arctic Basin the goal.

It's time to get serious and try to stop the early melt-out by the ice each spring to-sea from the shoreline.

It's all heat-transfer physics doing this water is 13-times better at holding heat than air, we must stall and pond the runoff from permafrost melting inland until 2070 then it slows down, all the glaciers in Alaska and globally are gone by then for being late-season water supplies.

The reduction in volume into the Arctic Basin reduces the volume of warmer Atlantic water drawn in to just under 1-sverdrup of 3-sverdrup coming a 30% reduction, the North Atlantic Overturning Current is about 15-sverdrups [1-sverdrup = 1-million cubic-meters/second].

This counters the Gulf Stream disruption of the AOC by 30%, not trivial, and prevents 30-Terawatt-hours a year of heat coming in as fresher water staying on top melting ice from below to 300-Gigawatt-hours/year of heat, these facts why it can have a large effect globally.

All it takes is recognition of this needing to be done, and, emission reductions are too slow to matter now to the accelerating feedbacks including ocean acidification.

Finally, to close a loop I want to ship the brine from California's new desalination plants to Alaskan waters to dispense there to counter acidification, a fairly new shellfish farm can't grow 4-5 months of the year ...

[Original statements & first few pages are an archive, most recent Q&A on the last page]
Why even think of trying to reduce flow through Bering Strait?
Briefly, Archer, Zeebe et al. have shown a general rule that CO2 is persistent now with a 3‰ isotopic variation matching an extinction event from so much carbon so fast.

    The planetary rule is 25% of the carbon we emit lasts for 10,000-years, that's 1/4 of 37-Gt of CO2 just last year and this legacy carbon is cumulative due to being in a geologic carbon excursion shown by oceans acidifying 10-times faster than the PETM:
    Let addCarbon = carbon added in a year
    Let legacyCarbon = the excess in the atmosphere + oceans
    Total legacyCarbon: legacyCarbon += (0.25 * addCarbon)

    This is the reason for actions not connected to emissions that has the largest effect thermally to maintain the remnant of sea-ice left to forestall the gain in albedo-loss doubling Arctic heating.

    A previous screenshot of predicted aragonite saturation curves for the three main Alaskan fisheries all going below 1 by 2070, the last the Bering Sea affecting that crab fishery.

    First seeing that the Anadyr Current water had most of the nutrient supply used in the Chukchi Sea so the preferred flow to allow into the Arctic Basin, now add in the end of these fisheries by 2100 as commercially viable with no actions taken as part of the problem to solve.

    That leads to the problem of what to do with the freshwater outflow from the glaciers until about that time when they'll be fractions of today's volume so far less of a problem to fisheries?

   That led me to think of how to sustain the fisheries by diverting the freshwater intentionally away to the Pacific near shore at first then to join the surface currents in a way that doesn't put that water against the shoreline south as the long-term need to prevent it from acidifying those coastal waters.

    It seems the best way to confine the Yukon and rivers on the coast to a path that enters the Gulf through Etolin Strait with Nunivak Island offshore. The same idea is applied to the western shoreline the problem there to not mix into the nutrient flow currents when diverting it.

    This only changes the closure on the Alaska side to have a diversion dam the main closure abuts, it makes more work yet today a shellfish hatchery only has a 5-month window at their location to use the water due to runoff. [A design reaction is to create a vortex to sort out these to draw deeper water into them and funnel freshwater past them.]

    To extend a dam from Nunivak Island to St. Matthew Island would send this freshwater west all the way to join the excess freshwater from the Anadyr side going south to Kamchatka. So far and sketching in many miles of dams it can work to extend the fisheries for some decades beyond 2070 for crab.

    The very southern Chukchi Sea can be closed Cape Hope to Cape Serdtse-Kamen in a progression with ice-polders the intention to over time expand along the shoreline east and west to delay it going ice-free early, extending the frozen bottom zone.

Main categories of critique:
Extending Ice Season
        2015 - FEEM Lecture: "Arctic Amplification, Climate Change, Global Warming. New Challenges from the Top of the World"; 1:43:26;
        Sea-ice yearly animation; 3:27;
        Heat-gain metrics and processes; "Charles Kennel:The Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Retreat on Contemporary Climate."; 21:59;
        "Ocean Heat Uptake: The Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming and Climate Sensitivity"; 29:01;
        "Assessing the Habitability and Physical Structure of Rotting First-year Arctic Sea Ice "; APL-UW; 6:38;
        St. Lawrence Island to Cape Romanzof:
        Original route Wales to Cape Nunyamo:
        Extension after straits closed north:
        Post on construction details:
        Dutch history totally relates this uses their concepts in deeper water; "Holland's Barriers to The Sea"; 44:21;
        Related proposesd dam building techniques; "Earth Under Water - Worldwide Flooding | Sea Level Rise (SLR)"; 45:08;
Habitats & Migration
        “Ridgwell and Schmidt found that ocean acidification is happening about ten times faster today than it did 55 million years ago.”;; long article;
        The circular shape puts the center of the whirlpool at the "V" of the backflow, this is a perfect location for a fish ladder of those going upstream into the Pacific.
        The design a vertical version of one made commercially for canals, works well for waterfalls since been installed demo tape from 2012.
        Note how non-damaging their design is versus standard blades for wildlife why I like it; "Hydrovolts hydrokinteic turbine in the Roza Canal"; 3:21;
Water Column Cooling
       "Methane Hydrates - Extended Interview Extracts With Natalia Shakhova"; 8:57;
Restore Beaufort Sea
Clathrate Atolls
        Carbon budgets versus carbon excursions, how large carbon releases work over time; Emiliani Lecture 2012, Dr. Zeebe; 52:47;
        "Fall Meeting 2015 Press Conference Alaska’s thawing permafrost Latest results and future projections; American Geophysical Union"; 42:45;
       "Global Warming 56 Million Years Ago: What it Means for Us"; 1:44:14;

Check current & sea-surface anomalies; nullschool:,66.43,3000[/size]

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