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Topics - logicmanPatrick

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History often repeats itself, perhaps because some people just don't 'get' history.  Or science.

I often come across old new stories which, merely by change of date and/or place names could be today's headlines.

The USA is witnessing the obvious effects of global warming, in the form of more intense hurricanes.  The world is witnessing catastrophic wierd weather.  The cryosphere continues to shed the very thing which makes it 'cryo-'.

We were warned.  Again and again and again.

I have started this new thread hoping for posts about historical warnings, bearing in mind that history is a matter of scale.  A century ago, a year, a week, a second ago: all past is history.  But pragmatically we can limit 'history' to mean 'written history', i.e. articles warning about the effects of global warming.

Here is a single link to two articles from 1989 republished by Context Institute.

Excerpts:
The summer of 1988 may yet be seen as the "environmental awareness summer," when the Earth spoke in droughts and floods. The Earth spoke and somehow we listened. Suddenly people are beginning to understand that nature is very closely bound up with our economic futures.

Dr Noel J Brown

... by giving traditional enemies a common adversary, global environmental problems can become an important vehicle for greater international communication and cooperation.

Joel Swisher

Regarding Joel Swishers words: I believe that Trump, by provoking N. Korea, by "giving traditional enemies a common adversary", and by thus promoting exports of US military equipment is promoting financial gain for himself and others at the expense of world peace.

Back on topic, and if Neven agrees, please post anything from the past on the lines of 'lessons have been learned'.

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The rest / It is an ancient manuscript ...
« on: July 29, 2017, 03:03:20 PM »
It is an ancient manuscript
  that stumpeth two or three ...

Nothing whatsoever to do with the Arctic but -

Neven: comments are not being accepted at the moment in my blog: some sort of bug.  Would you be so kind as to permit me to link here for anyone who wishes to comment.

After around 10 years of research, programming, and linguistic analysis I have concluded that the Voynich Manuscript was written in medieval colloquial Latin.

Anyone interested in language studies or cryptography ?

http://www.science20.com/patrick_lockerby/the_keys_to_the_voynich_manuscript-225224


3
Antarctica / Shackleton ice shelf
« on: January 30, 2017, 09:15:01 AM »
Some time ago the Denman Glacier ice tongue broke off but remained embedded in the Shackleton ice shelf.  That tongue fragment has recently calved a large part.

The 1st image below, from NSIDC shows the shelf ice as it was in February 2003.

The 2nd image, from the current Antarctic mosaic shows some interesting cracks and calvings.  The image was enhanced by reducing brightness and increasing contrast.

Please discuss, add info, etc.

4
Arctic Background / Historic Arctic Expeditions
« on: January 20, 2017, 03:24:25 AM »
I will add to this list, compiled from various sources, from time to time.

Historic Arctic Expeditions with links to useful articles.


1364 - Alexander Abakumovich, Governor of Novgorod, crosses Polar Urals and reaches the Gulf of Ob.

1553 - Willoughby Expedition.

1556 - Stephen Burrough is the first European to reach Novaya Zemlya.

1576 - Sir Martin Frobisher (1st Expedition)

1577 - Sir Martin Frobisher (2nd Expedition)

1578 - Sir Martin Frobisher (3rd Expedition)
         -  George Best  made scientific observations during Frobisher expeditions.

1583 - John Davis East Greenland expedition.
1585 - John Davis penetrates Davis Strait to 67oN.
1587 - John Davis 3rd expedition charts Davis Inlet, Labrador.

1594 - William BarentszWilliam Barentsz 1st voyage reaches Novaya ZemlyaNovaya Zemlya
1595 - William Barentsz 2nd voyage
1596 - William Barentsz 3rd voyage, discovers Spitzbergen


1609 - Henry Hudson North East Passage expedition
1610 - Henry Hudson North West Passage expedition


1872 - 1874 - George Nares Challenger expedition
1875 - 1876 - George Nares British Arctic expedition

1879 - George W. Delong USS Jeanette
         - USS Jeanette article

1881 - Adolphus Greely International Polar expedition

1888 - Fridtjof Nansen = Greenland Expedition
         - Nansen, Nobel Prize, book: Furthest North
         - more of Nansen's books, Fram Museum

1890 - John Muir Third Alaska Expedition

1892 - Robert Peary Greenland Expedition

1893 - 1895  - Fridtjof Nansen = Fram Expedition
        -  See also 1888.


1902–1904 - Rasmussen Danish Literary Expedition
                   - Knud Rasmussen and Peter Freuchen founded the original settlement at Thule

1906 - 1918 - Vilhjalmur Stefansson canadian arctic expedition and other expeditions

1924 - 1934 - Isobel Wylie Hutchison travels in Northern countries as botanist and movie maker

1926 - Airship Norge flies over the pole

1928 - Airship Italia crashes on polar ice

1937 - North Pole 1
         - USSR, world's first North Pole ice station.

1940 - Wegener Eismitte station set up on Greenland ice cap.
         -  More info here and here.

1940–1944 - St. Roch North West Passage voyage.
                   - St. Roch 2nd expedition.
                   - Between St. Roch and a cold place
                   - St. Roch model kit

1952 - 1983 - Drift Station Alpha, aka T3 or Fletcher's Island used as a scientific base by U.S. miltary
                    - Documentary footage

1958 - Operation Sunshine U.S.S. Nautilus



5
Arctic Background / Sweden - historical climate data
« on: December 21, 2016, 07:14:04 PM »
Projekt Runeberg has some useful historical climate data in the "Sweden : historical and statistical handbook" 1914, English version. http://runeberg.org/sweden14/1/0061.html


"Of the whole area of Sweden, 65 000 sq. km or about 15 %, are situated
north of the Arctic Circle, ... "

Lying as it does across the Arctic circle, Sweden offers an insight into the way in which Arctic sea ice loss has affected climate in Scandinavia.

The section on climate lists mean temperatures as of 1914 together with mean isotherms for the period 1860 - 1898.

The descriptions of ice and snow cover might be of use in showing how the Arctic and sub-Arctic climate has changed.

I hope this resource may be of interest to Neven's Arcticians.

6
Arctic Background / Ice Gain and Loss - Key Mechanisms
« on: December 12, 2016, 02:17:16 AM »
This is not an article so much as a short list of some key mechanisms in the profit and loss account of Arctic ice.

Taking the Arctic as an area which includes 'the twilight zone' - i.e. the northern area which never sees total darkness in winter - it is possible to understand some of the key features and mechanisms which control the balance between ice formation and ice export.

In the distant past, ice would circulate for many years in the Beaufort gyre, becoming even as much as (iirc) 30 year ice.  Old ice was exported mainly through the Nares Strait and the Fram Strait and was replaced by new ice formed for the most part in the Laptev Sea.

The Odden Ice Tongue on the Atlantic side, the Aleutians and other islands on the Pacific side formed ice barriers which slowed down ice export.  Year-on-year shore-bound ice in the various North-West passages prevented export by those routes.

The Laptev factory would create new ice by the effect of wind blowing from land out over the sea.  The new ice was driven by the same wind into the central pack where it would be trapped and spend some years rejecting salt and compacting.


What has changed.

The loss of the Odden, the frequent loss of a solid Aleutian chain ice barrier, the frequent loss of an ice bridge in the Nares Strait and the frequently open North-West passages all add up to a loss of or dramatic weakening of barriers to export.

A reduced size of central pack means the new Laptev ice must travel further to join it, meanwhile being exposed to melting from warm winds and warm currents.

Reduced mass  of floes has three predictable effects. 

1 - loss of keel.   Really old and ridged ice has a deep keel underwater.  Such ice tends to go with the current.  Young ice tends to go with the wind.

2 - loss of mass.   Lighter objects are more readily blown around than heavier objects and, given enough distance travelled, attain higher velocities.

3 - impact velocity.  A fast moving floe coming against land or a stalled mass of ice is more likely to disintegrate than to be merged into thick pack.

Wave and tide action.

In former times, leads would open as thick shore-fast ice was lifted by tidal currents.  These leads would either close again or freeze over.  Thinner ice is shattered by tidal currents.

Waves, whether tide or wind, can readily shatter even exceedingly large floes.  The laws of physics show that the wave energy is converted into the work done in breaking the ice, and this is a heat equivalent.


A smaller pack of younger ice will tend to move more with the wind, less with the currents.

Warm Atlantic and Pacific surface water can now intrude further into the Arctic basin before being forced under the ice.

More open water means a greater fetch for the wind and greater Ekmann transport, so more mixing of water layers.

Ice is lost through transport into warm waters.  The warm water fronts have advanced as the ice has retreated.

So much has changed - even ignoring the meteorology - that we need a new Arctic ice model.

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Arctic Background / Jan Mayen and the Odden Ice Tongue
« on: December 10, 2016, 03:20:07 AM »
As the Arctic ice area shrinks, it leaves outside its ever-smaller perimeter geographical and bathymetric features that can no longer affect ice loss.  These regulatory factor losses must be allowed for when predicting future sea ice cover.

The Odden Ice Tongue is a prime example of a 'gatekeeper' which no longer functions.

The Odden used to extend frequently across the Jan Mayen current and act to suppress the rate of ice loss through the Fram Strait.  It also acted to suppress the northward flow of the warm north Atlantic current.  That gatekeeper function no longer exists, so trends noted since the last appearance of the Odden in 1997 do not bear direct numerical-statistical comparison with pre-1997 trends.

Further information -

http://oro.open.ac.uk/12096/

https://www.researchgate.net/publication
/248801554_Seasonal_and_interannual_variability_of_the_Odden_ice_tongue_and_a_study_of_environmental_effects

http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_tipping_points_7_can_arctic_recover

Jan Meyen effect on local meteorology -

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=70074


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