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Topics - Alexander555

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Science / Solar cycle
« on: February 11, 2018, 12:05:32 PM »
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #187 on: Today at 04:34:42 PM »
The effect of a prolonged solar minimum would be modest - tenths of a degree C. It could affect weather patterns, however, as ocean heat would be redistributed in response to the slightly shifted regional radiation balance.

There was a regional "little ice age" that primarily affected Europe. It was mainly caused by northern hemisphere volcanoes. The Maunder minimum in sunspots had an modest impact. Southern hemisphere temperatures dropped slightly.

A deep and long solar minimum would cause a modest drop in forcing that would be significantly less than the increase in forcing caused by increasing levels of GHGs.

I'm writing this from memory based on reading many research papers and discussions.
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I think we can call the levels of GHGs a long term trend. And that solar cycle is a constant short term trend. In general it will change nothing in the long term as long nothing changes at the sun. It just moves up and down along that long term trend. But still that 0,3 degree difference is not a small thing. In some way it's a little amazing to see these record low extents at this point. That could mean something stronger is kicking in. I read we keep building up record amounts of GHGs, we continue to destroy forests. So probably something stronger is kicking in. That makes it interesting to see what extent is going to do in the next 2 or 3 years. If it stays flat or continues to go down it would be bad news for the arctic.

My knowledge is rather fragmented, that puts me easily on the hook for a stupid question. But some people say that stupid questions don't exist. I keep that in mind, even among specialists. That overlapsing from the solar cycle and the ENSO, is there some kind of correlation ?

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