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Topics - Neven

Pages: [1] 2 3
5
The rest / MOVED: Brazil just elected a fascist
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:27:35 AM »

6
The rest / MOVED: Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:27:04 AM »

7
The rest / MOVED: The problem of social media
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:26:21 AM »

8
The rest / MOVED: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:26:04 AM »

9
The rest / MOVED: Ukraine, Nazis and western support
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:25:45 AM »

10
The rest / MOVED: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:25:21 AM »

11
The rest / MOVED: Brexit...
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:25:04 AM »

13
The rest / MOVED: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:24:18 AM »

14
The rest / MOVED: Empire - America and the future
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:23:55 AM »

15
The rest / MOVED: The Koch Watch Thread
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:23:37 AM »

16
The rest / MOVED: The Trump Presidency
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:23:16 AM »

18
The rest / MOVED: Economic Inequality
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:22:25 AM »

20
The rest / MOVED: Elections 2020 USA
« on: April 10, 2020, 10:21:10 AM »

21
The forum / Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 09, 2020, 01:18:00 PM »
I've been managing this forum for a little over 7 years now. The reason this forum was set up, was that the Arctic Sea Ice Blog saw a huge influx of commenters during and after the 2012 melting season, which was significantly lowering the signal-to-noise ratio in the comment section.

This was a successful decision, much more so than anticipated. The forum grew and grew, and I ended up having to divide my time between the ASIB and ASIF. However, my time was scarce, and so it took a lot of energy to do. After a couple of years, I decided to stop blogging for a while, and that hiatus is still ongoing.

Unfortunately, due to my father's death last July, time and energy have become more scarce, as I inherited his company with 10 employees (as well as a host of other problems). And now, during the COVID-19 lockdown, I notice how much of a burn-out I've been carrying around all those years. Something that used to be a pleasure (reading dozens of comments every day), has become a chore.

Hence, my question to the ASIF community: Is there any person, or group of persons, who would be interested in taking over the ASIF? I would stay on as a member, but naturally, they could run the forum as they see fit.

Let me know what you think in comments below, or send me a PM.

22
Policy and solutions / Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 02:55:02 PM »
What lessons can be learned from COVID-19, and how might they impact policy and solutions with regard to AGW?

A picture says more than a 1000 words:



Two pictures say more than 2000 words:



Lessons can be learned from a crisis, when the causes of the crisis are understood. So, what caused the impact of COVID-19? I believe the causes are two-fold:

1) Of, course the disease itself. Although no one can say with certainty how the disease came into being, it is clear that it could rapidly spread itself around the world due to globalisation. Globalisation is caused by neoliberal policies, predicated on neoclassic economic theories of endless growth. These policies cause the outsourcing of jobs, planet-wide shipments of goods and mass tourism.
2) The context in which the disease can successfully cause lots of casualties. Due to neoliberal policies, industries like Big Oil and Big Auto have caused massive air pollution, severely impacting lung development and health, which is obviously ideal for the respiratory diseases caused by COVID-19. The same neoliberal policies have also given free rein to industries like Big Pharma, Big Agro, Big Sugar, Big Tobacco to parasitically extract profit from the health of the general population.

In my view, there are two options after the crisis is over:

1) Treating the symptoms: Manufacturing vaccines and medications, developing plans for mass surveillance, massive bail-outs that benefit large corporations and further enslave populations. This will naturally lead to zero structural changes to the status quo, and future crises will be assured, instead of mitigated and prevented.
2) Taking away the causes: Putting an end to and reverting neoliberal policies, by switching to alternative economic theories that are more in line with laws of nature and universal moral principles. Given the goal of these neoliberal policies, ie endlessly increasing and concentrating wealth, this wealth will fight extremely hard to prevent any change to the status quo. An additional problem is the decade-long cultural condition of a heavily addicted and perverted majority of the population.

What lessons will be learned?

24
Arctic sea ice / 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 08, 2019, 10:49:30 PM »
We're entering what will be a highly educative event. I've just ended the latest PIOMAS update on the ASIB with this:

Quote
The only question on my mind right now, is: Can 2019 beat 2012? No, wait, I know it can. Allow me to rephrase. The only question on my mind right now, is: Will 2019 beat 2012?

2012 and 2019 are very similar in their respective horrible states, but there are differences. This thread is about those differences. For more general talk about 2019 conditions and weather forecasts, use the 2019 melting season thread. For off-topic banter, theories and discussions about wider implications use the meaningless chatter thread (please, use it).

This thread is about 2012 vs 2019, and what I would like to see most of all, are graphs, maps and satellite images that highlight the differences. And so I'll kick off with the following:

1) PIOMAS June sea ice volume
2) PIJAMAS average sea ice thickness
3) NSIDC compactness
4) JAXA melt extent ratio

25
Science / MOVED: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: June 16, 2019, 09:14:17 PM »

26
Policy and solutions / MOVED: Magnitude of future warming
« on: May 30, 2019, 10:55:36 AM »
I've changed the title of the thread and poll for clarity.

This topic has been moved to Science.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2715.0

27
Policy and solutions / Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« on: May 13, 2019, 05:30:32 PM »
Continued from here...

28
Policy and solutions / Electric cars
« on: May 13, 2019, 05:26:27 PM »
This thread is for discussing the latest in EV technology and infrastructure. The original Cars, cars and more cars thread can be used to discuss what it all means as a solution in the greater scheme of things.

Edit: Make that the new Cars, cars and more cars thread.

29
Policy and solutions / US Green New Deal
« on: February 11, 2019, 09:10:27 AM »
I believe there are two proposals in the US with the name Green New Deal. One by the Green Party and the other now by Democratic representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Edward Markey.

I figured it deserves a thread of its own, so it doesn't get discussed in a fragmented manner in other threads.

31
The politics / Political theatre/wrestling
« on: November 12, 2018, 09:20:08 PM »
This thread that can be used to post links to mainstream media articles that rile up and promote further division, without adding anything of substance with regards to policy and to what the people of the USA or any other nation want their country to become in the (near) future.

32
The forum / Poll predictions are stupid
« on: September 22, 2018, 10:37:18 PM »

33
Policy and solutions / Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 15, 2018, 02:46:10 PM »
This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

For a more general discussion on EVs and their future, usefulness and technological aspects, use the thread that was always meant for that: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

34
Arctic sea ice / Will we see it before it happens?
« on: July 09, 2018, 08:54:30 PM »
With it I'm referring to the first melting season that results in ice-free conditions (for all practical purposes, below 1 million km2 SIA) or what has become popular as 'blue ocean event' (BOE).

The past three melting seasons all started with big expectations, because of record warm winters, PIOMAS showing low volume numbers, and March/April having very low extent numbers. But somehow, weather conditions would switch during May and/or June, effectively making record-breaking minimums highly unlikely, come September.

This has led to recurring annual discussions around this time of year, where I and others slowly start to announce that this won't be the big year, while others maintain that it's still very much possible, because there are certain things going on that aren't easy to discern (like salinity or buoy temperature profiles), or because some models show the situation is actually a lot worse than remote sensing-based observations are reporting (like the HYCOM/ACNFS or TOPAZ sea ice thickness models).

I guess the idea is that the ice is in a much worse state, more 'rotten', more porous, darker on the underside (algae), all things that wouldn't be picked up by microwave sounders or radar. In theory.

Do you guys think that it is possible that none of the more conservative/reticent members here (including myself) will notice anything before the ice suddenly goes POOF? Will we be totally surprised?

I tend to think not, because I think that collectively we have quite a good view on the real-time stuff (maximum two weeks out), and because I also think that the first BOE will still depend on extraordinary weather conditions, and for this the weather models are reliable enough (up to one week out). But I might be wrong.



Let's go down the waterfall
Have ourselves a good time
It's nothing at all
Nothing at all
Nothing at all

35
The rest / I'm a fool
« on: June 26, 2018, 12:10:50 PM »
You can explain if you want why you're a fool (or not), but it's a foolish thing to do.

Either way, I'm a fool and I try to tell myself every day. My wife supports me.



I knew you fine, sight dream of mine
But I know my eyes, they've often lied
And I move like blood, like fire and flood
Despite you
Blind love couldn't win
As the facts all came in
But I know I'll again chase after wind
What have I got if not a thought?
I knew, oh I knew
I knew
It was a fool's errand
Waiting for a sign
But I can't leave until the sight comes to mind
A fool's errand
Life will repeat, vision I see
The mouth and the teeth
That's fine with me
What have I got if not a thought?
I knew, oh I knew
I knew
It was a fool's errand
Waiting for a sign
But I can't leave until the sign comes to mind
A fool's errand
But I can make it through
I was thin and I saw life in you
Fool's errand

36
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« on: June 06, 2018, 12:10:19 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 7 days (until June 12th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to June 4th:



These are the September averages for the last 13 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.50
    2006: 5.86
    2007: 4.27
    2008: 4.69
    2009: 5.26
    2010: 4.87
    2011: 4.56
    2012: 3.57
    2013: 5.21
    2014: 5.22
    2015: 4.62
    2016: 4.51
    2017: 4.80

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

37
The forum / Comments/posts can be liked now
« on: April 18, 2018, 10:55:52 AM »
I've installed the SMF Likes Pro mod. I'd appreciate feedback, because there are a lot of settings that can be tweaked.

38
The politics / The problem of social media
« on: March 06, 2018, 05:33:24 PM »
Russiagate has many consequences. One of them is tied to social media. Besides the negative aspects of social media, like the (distracting and addictive) effect it has on people and the insidiousness of commonplace marketing, it seems that more and more social media are used for astroturfing and foreign meddling in elections.

One of the outcomes is that social media have started censuring the content on their platforms. Which is slippery at best, and slippery on a slope at worst, as the definitions of what is propaganda and what not are malleable and open to abuse.

Is it possible to solve these problems? And if so, how?

39
Arctic sea ice / On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« on: March 01, 2018, 09:04:03 PM »
Alternative poll title: When will the 2018 melting season thread be opened?  ;)

Past JAXA SIE maximum dates:

2005: March 7
2006: March 10
2007: February 24
2008: March 9
2009: March 2
2010: March 31
2011: March 16
2012: March 7
2013: March 14
2014: March 21
2015: February 15
2016: February 29
2017: March 6
2018: ?

Hautbois, if you're reading,  could you post that graph of yours for visual support?

Poll will run for 5 days (March 6th). Keep your eyes on the forecasts.

40
Consequences / MOVED: Solar cycle
« on: February 11, 2018, 08:16:40 PM »

41
Consequences / Hurricane season 2018
« on: January 15, 2018, 09:27:10 PM »
Continued from here: Hurricane season 2017

42
Arctic background / Automated Sea Ice Products
« on: January 11, 2018, 12:13:55 AM »
I just saw this video on the NBC news website about the DMI investing 1 million USD to create ASIP (automated sea ice products) using artificial intelligence. I've always thought that something like this would be great for IMS/MASIE, to replace the human analysts, whilst looking at various sources and not just passive microwave data. Especially now with all the Sentinel stuff. IMS/MASIE is the most precise of all daily sea ice extent products, but due to the human factor and changes in sources over time long-time series are unreliable/inconsistent.

Would it be possible, once the AI is really good at performing the job, to go back and look and past satellite data from as many sources as possible and construct a new continuous dataset? That could perhaps be the solution to the problems with the DMSP satellites and a possible break in the longest running dataset of Arctic sea ice cover we have.

I've attached the video below, but I'm not sure it'll play (18.8 MB is a bit much perhaps). If it doesn't play, click the link above.

43
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: January 05, 2018, 02:55:39 PM »
It's not the melt season yet, but it is 2018, so have at it.

44
Arctic sea ice / 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 04, 2018, 04:50:55 PM »
Here's a new thread to replace the 2017 version.

Have at it, spread the data.


45
The rest / MOVED: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 30, 2017, 09:30:46 PM »
Sorry for not moving earlier. As this is also about Arctic sea ice, I figure it can go into the top category.

This topic has been moved to Arctic sea ice.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2136.0

46
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: August 01, 2017, 07:53:08 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 11 days (until August 12th). Until then you can change your vote. Here are the results for the June poll and July poll. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to July 31st:



These are the September averages for the last 12 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.59
    2006: 5.95
    2007: 4.32
    2008: 4.74
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.29
    2015: 4.68
    2016: 4.72

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

47
Policy and solutions / New ideas for carbon capture
« on: July 14, 2017, 11:31:25 AM »
This thread was opened by Jontenoy in the wrong category. I wanted to move it here, but accidentally removed it. Fortunately it was still in my cache. Here's Jontenoy's text:

---

Most discussions seem to be about reducing emissions. This is all fine except it is not going to happen fast enough. I think a possible solution would be to develop a vegetable with the following attributes :
* Has deep roots
* Produces food (grains, leaves, stalks etc)
* Keeps growing downwards
* Spreads rapidly

This would produce a vast tangle of treadlike roots which would capture and store carbon. If it died, a new plant could continue and grow around the old roots. Clover fixes Nitrogen. This would fix Carbon in the soil as biomass.  Some grape vines and Olive trees have roots greater than 40 metres deep.
The same idea could be considered for the ocean whereby algae would form, reproduce and die on a continuous basis.

48
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2017, 12:46:08 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 11 days (until July 12th). Until then you can change your vote. Here are the results for the June poll. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to June 30th:



These are the September averages for the last 12 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.59
    2006: 5.95
    2007: 4.32
    2008: 4.74
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.29
    2015: 4.68
    2016: 4.72

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

50
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« on: June 01, 2017, 10:39:12 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 11 days (until June 12th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to May 31st:



These are the September minimums for the last 12 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.59
    2006: 5.95
    2007: 4.32
    2008: 4.74
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.29
    2015: 4.68
    2016: 4.72

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

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