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Topics - Neven

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1
Policy and solutions / US Green New Deal
« on: February 11, 2019, 09:10:27 AM »
I believe there are two proposals in the US with the name Green New Deal. One by the Green Party and the other now by Democratic representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Edward Markey.

I figured it deserves a thread of its own, so it doesn't get discussed in a fragmented manner in other threads.

4
The rest / Political theatre/wrestling
« on: November 12, 2018, 09:20:08 PM »
This thread that can be used to post links to mainstream media articles that rile up and promote further division, without adding anything of substance with regards to policy and to what the people of the USA or any other nation want their country to become in the (near) future.

5
The forum / Poll predictions are stupid
« on: September 22, 2018, 10:37:18 PM »

6
Policy and solutions / Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 15, 2018, 02:46:10 PM »
This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

For a more general discussion on EVs and their future, usefulness and technological aspects, use the thread that was always meant for that: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

7
Arctic sea ice / MOVED: Lay People and accurate info
« on: September 08, 2018, 12:58:26 PM »

8
Arctic sea ice / Will we see it before it happens?
« on: July 09, 2018, 08:54:30 PM »
With it I'm referring to the first melting season that results in ice-free conditions (for all practical purposes, below 1 million km2 SIA) or what has become popular as 'blue ocean event' (BOE).

The past three melting seasons all started with big expectations, because of record warm winters, PIOMAS showing low volume numbers, and March/April having very low extent numbers. But somehow, weather conditions would switch during May and/or June, effectively making record-breaking minimums highly unlikely, come September.

This has led to recurring annual discussions around this time of year, where I and others slowly start to announce that this won't be the big year, while others maintain that it's still very much possible, because there are certain things going on that aren't easy to discern (like salinity or buoy temperature profiles), or because some models show the situation is actually a lot worse than remote sensing-based observations are reporting (like the HYCOM/ACNFS or TOPAZ sea ice thickness models).

I guess the idea is that the ice is in a much worse state, more 'rotten', more porous, darker on the underside (algae), all things that wouldn't be picked up by microwave sounders or radar. In theory.

Do you guys think that it is possible that none of the more conservative/reticent members here (including myself) will notice anything before the ice suddenly goes POOF? Will we be totally surprised?

I tend to think not, because I think that collectively we have quite a good view on the real-time stuff (maximum two weeks out), and because I also think that the first BOE will still depend on extraordinary weather conditions, and for this the weather models are reliable enough (up to one week out). But I might be wrong.



Let's go down the waterfall
Have ourselves a good time
It's nothing at all
Nothing at all
Nothing at all

9
The rest / I'm a fool
« on: June 26, 2018, 12:10:50 PM »
You can explain if you want why you're a fool (or not), but it's a foolish thing to do.

Either way, I'm a fool and I try to tell myself every day. My wife supports me.



I knew you fine, sight dream of mine
But I know my eyes, they've often lied
And I move like blood, like fire and flood
Despite you
Blind love couldn't win
As the facts all came in
But I know I'll again chase after wind
What have I got if not a thought?
I knew, oh I knew
I knew
It was a fool's errand
Waiting for a sign
But I can't leave until the sight comes to mind
A fool's errand
Life will repeat, vision I see
The mouth and the teeth
That's fine with me
What have I got if not a thought?
I knew, oh I knew
I knew
It was a fool's errand
Waiting for a sign
But I can't leave until the sign comes to mind
A fool's errand
But I can make it through
I was thin and I saw life in you
Fool's errand

10
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« on: June 06, 2018, 12:10:19 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 7 days (until June 12th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to June 4th:



These are the September averages for the last 13 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.50
    2006: 5.86
    2007: 4.27
    2008: 4.69
    2009: 5.26
    2010: 4.87
    2011: 4.56
    2012: 3.57
    2013: 5.21
    2014: 5.22
    2015: 4.62
    2016: 4.51
    2017: 4.80

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

11
The forum / Comments/posts can be liked now
« on: April 18, 2018, 10:55:52 AM »
I've installed the SMF Likes Pro mod. I'd appreciate feedback, because there are a lot of settings that can be tweaked.

12
The rest / The problem of social media
« on: March 06, 2018, 05:33:24 PM »
Russiagate has many consequences. One of them is tied to social media. Besides the negative aspects of social media, like the (distracting and addictive) effect it has on people and the insidiousness of commonplace marketing, it seems that more and more social media are used for astroturfing and foreign meddling in elections.

One of the outcomes is that social media have started censuring the content on their platforms. Which is slippery at best, and slippery on a slope at worst, as the definitions of what is propaganda and what not are malleable and open to abuse.

Is it possible to solve these problems? And if so, how?

13
Arctic sea ice / On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« on: March 01, 2018, 09:04:03 PM »
Alternative poll title: When will the 2018 melting season thread be opened?  ;)

Past JAXA SIE maximum dates:

2005: March 7
2006: March 10
2007: February 24
2008: March 9
2009: March 2
2010: March 31
2011: March 16
2012: March 7
2013: March 14
2014: March 21
2015: February 15
2016: February 29
2017: March 6
2018: ?

Hautbois, if you're reading,  could you post that graph of yours for visual support?

Poll will run for 5 days (March 6th). Keep your eyes on the forecasts.

14
Consequences / MOVED: Solar cycle
« on: February 11, 2018, 08:16:40 PM »

15
Consequences / Hurricane season 2018
« on: January 15, 2018, 09:27:10 PM »
Continued from here: Hurricane season 2017

16
Arctic background / Automated Sea Ice Products
« on: January 11, 2018, 12:13:55 AM »
I just saw this video on the NBC news website about the DMI investing 1 million USD to create ASIP (automated sea ice products) using artificial intelligence. I've always thought that something like this would be great for IMS/MASIE, to replace the human analysts, whilst looking at various sources and not just passive microwave data. Especially now with all the Sentinel stuff. IMS/MASIE is the most precise of all daily sea ice extent products, but due to the human factor and changes in sources over time long-time series are unreliable/inconsistent.

Would it be possible, once the AI is really good at performing the job, to go back and look and past satellite data from as many sources as possible and construct a new continuous dataset? That could perhaps be the solution to the problems with the DMSP satellites and a possible break in the longest running dataset of Arctic sea ice cover we have.

I've attached the video below, but I'm not sure it'll play (18.8 MB is a bit much perhaps). If it doesn't play, click the link above.

17
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: January 05, 2018, 02:55:39 PM »
It's not the melt season yet, but it is 2018, so have at it.

18
Arctic sea ice / MOVED: Oceanic anoxia
« on: January 04, 2018, 11:16:50 PM »

19
Arctic sea ice / 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 04, 2018, 04:50:55 PM »
Here's a new thread to replace the 2017 version.

Have at it, spread the data.


20
The rest / MOVED: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 30, 2017, 09:30:46 PM »
Sorry for not moving earlier. As this is also about Arctic sea ice, I figure it can go into the top category.

This topic has been moved to Arctic sea ice.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2136.0

22
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: August 01, 2017, 07:53:08 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 11 days (until August 12th). Until then you can change your vote. Here are the results for the June poll and July poll. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to July 31st:



These are the September averages for the last 12 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.59
    2006: 5.95
    2007: 4.32
    2008: 4.74
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.29
    2015: 4.68
    2016: 4.72

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

23
Policy and solutions / New ideas for carbon capture
« on: July 14, 2017, 11:31:25 AM »
This thread was opened by Jontenoy in the wrong category. I wanted to move it here, but accidentally removed it. Fortunately it was still in my cache. Here's Jontenoy's text:

---

Most discussions seem to be about reducing emissions. This is all fine except it is not going to happen fast enough. I think a possible solution would be to develop a vegetable with the following attributes :
* Has deep roots
* Produces food (grains, leaves, stalks etc)
* Keeps growing downwards
* Spreads rapidly

This would produce a vast tangle of treadlike roots which would capture and store carbon. If it died, a new plant could continue and grow around the old roots. Clover fixes Nitrogen. This would fix Carbon in the soil as biomass.  Some grape vines and Olive trees have roots greater than 40 metres deep.
The same idea could be considered for the ocean whereby algae would form, reproduce and die on a continuous basis.

24
Arctic sea ice / MOVED: Fish and sea ice
« on: July 10, 2017, 02:54:02 PM »

25
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2017, 12:46:08 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 11 days (until July 12th). Until then you can change your vote. Here are the results for the June poll. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to June 30th:



These are the September averages for the last 12 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.59
    2006: 5.95
    2007: 4.32
    2008: 4.74
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.29
    2015: 4.68
    2016: 4.72

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

27
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: June poll
« on: June 01, 2017, 10:39:12 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 11 days (until June 12th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to May 31st:



These are the September minimums for the last 12 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.59
    2006: 5.95
    2007: 4.32
    2008: 4.74
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.29
    2015: 4.68
    2016: 4.72

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: May 22, 2017, 01:50:16 PM »





31
Science / MOVED: Real Stupid Blog-Posts
« on: April 27, 2017, 08:41:03 PM »

32
The rest / Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: April 22, 2017, 10:03:30 PM »
This thread is for discussing every aspect of the alleged (and allegedly successful) attempts by the Russian government to influence the last American presidential elections.

Have at it.

33
Developers Corner / MOVED: Closed forum or mailing list
« on: April 17, 2017, 10:33:45 AM »

34
The rest / The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: March 29, 2017, 10:36:31 PM »
Okay, I've been having these ongoing discussions in the Trump thread, even though I perhaps shouldn't (I'm not American and I don't have the time or the knowledge to give such a discussion the attention it deserves), but I'm just constantly frustrated to see how people fall into this groupthink that is mainly served up by mainstream media and focuses on any spectacle that turns the attention away from the real problem: The iron hold of corporations on American politics.

Of course, we all know how effed up the Republican Party and how they lie and cheat people, while serving the interests of the military-industrial complex, Big Fossil, Big Agro, and so on.  The problem is that the Democratic Party isn't any better. In fact, I would say it's even worse, because these Corporate Democrats act as if they represent the opposite of the Republican Party and are the party of the (working) people, whereas in fact, they too mostly serve the interests of Wall Street, Big Pharma and the military-industrial complex and so on.

And that's how you get Trump. First, he ate the Republican presidential candidates' lunch and won the primaries (with the help, as it turned out, from Clinton and her mainstream media network) and then he clinched victory away from the vastly unpopular Clinton who paid millions and millions for ads, outspending Trump 2:1, mostly smearing Trump instead of presenting ideas and inspiring people to come and vote for her. It was an absolute strategic disaster, so bad that I sometimes think they did it on purpose.

The problem is now that everyone is so anti-Trump that they're unwilling to look at how all this came about, and unwilling to try and change that, while taking on Trump at the same time. It's all Trump, Trump, Trump. That's the current message from the Democratic Party: We're not Trump. No ideas, no vision, no values, just 'We're not Trump'.

By constantly focussing on Trump's character and things like Russian influences (McCarthyism all over again, never mind the beam in thine eye) things are probably set up in such a way that Trump stays firmly in power and the Republicans keep their majority. And even if they don't, it's the Corporate Democrats that get some power back again to serve special interests again. So, corporations and rich people win either way.

What I and others have tried to make clear in the Trump thread is that some of that energy channeled towards Trump, needs to be use to either start a third party (which is very difficult) or sweep the Democratic Party clean, and get some true progressives in that can win back the trust of the people.

And so I've opened this separate thread to try and discuss with others to see if they agree, and if not, why not and what should happen instead. Why choose to die from the lesser poison, if the end result is the same?

37
The rest / MOVED: Baltic Images
« on: March 19, 2017, 01:01:34 PM »

38
Arctic background / MOVED: Validation of GCM Models.
« on: March 18, 2017, 12:23:36 AM »

39
The rest / MOVED: Ocean Temps
« on: March 11, 2017, 09:22:05 AM »

40
The rest / MOVED: What is Off Topic and What is Not?
« on: March 11, 2017, 09:21:14 AM »
This is clearly about the Forum, and hence the automatic notification:

This topic has been moved to The forum.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1907.0

41
Arctic sea ice / MOVED: Barneo 2017
« on: March 09, 2017, 10:19:55 PM »

42
The forum / Moderation
« on: March 09, 2017, 09:34:03 PM »
The Forum keeps growing, which is great news, but there are some downsides as well, the most conspicuous of course being off-topic comments and rants in the wrong threads, especially the ones with most readers, such as the freezing/melting threads, and the IJIS and PIOMAS threads. Lately this has been really getting out of hand.

I've decided to do two things:

1. Delete those off-topic comments for a while, to see if that helps. It entails extra work, but so do the moderator reports, warning people and PM-ing back and forth.
2. Forum member and long time ASIB commenter Jim Pettit has offered to help out, and so I've decided to assign him the role of General Moderator, which allows him to intervene with all kinds of things, like approving comments from new members, moving threads, modifying polls when necessary, etc.

That should get us through the coming melting season.  ;)

43
Arctic sea ice / MOVED: 2017 open thread
« on: March 04, 2017, 08:57:43 PM »

44
Arctic sea ice / MOVED: Ice-free Arctic
« on: February 23, 2017, 02:14:32 PM »

46
Arctic sea ice / Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: February 18, 2017, 10:43:25 PM »
Over on the 2016/2017 freezing season thread, commenter Aslan is providing lots of information that shouldn't get lost in the mire of comments. And so I open this thread to make it easier to find.

Below is Aslan's post:

---------

Using the reanalysis, we can calculate also the mean of the downward radiation flux. Of course, it is the reanalysis, with a coarse resolution and its own limitations (especially discontinuities due to inclusion of varying kinds of data), but I think it is quite good nonetheless, if we look at the values after 1981 (start of the satellite era). So, the downward radiation flux, or the infrared emitted by the atmosphere toward Earth surface (one funny thing when you have some knowledge in physics, you know you are a being of light and that you are shining :D ). Data are for the whole above 69°N (radiation data are along a Gauss grid, I take values up to 69.5217°N, cell index 11), averaged according to surface (hoping I make no mistakes), for each day from 1st January, 1981 :



It is looking quite like the graph of the temperature according to the DNMI, which is not unexpected by the way. We are tempted to say, a warmer atmosphere radiates more energy, so what is the point?

Actually there is more in this. The mean level of radiation for Earth is around 5 - 6 km, so around 500 hPa, take or given a couple of hPa. Relationship between temperature and radiation is not linear, so we can calculate the flux of a black-body with our old friend, the equation of a black-body :

Flux = 5.67e-8 * T^4

The grid for the temperatures are not the same as the one for the radiation data, but I didn't care about this. The precision of the reanalysis is probably far worse than the small difference induced by averaging over a slightly different area. So I used the region above 67.5°N for the temperatures, calculate the radiation flux from the temperature and compare with DWLR, and averaged for the three months from November to January (February is still ongoing un 2017). The year of reference is that of January (ie., NDJ 2017 is the average of ND 2016 and J 2017) :



Values are roughly the same, so yeah 500 hPa is a good level. But correlation is not looking good actually... I look to other levels, but the correlation is not significantly better. As a side-note, the temperatures at 500 hPa :



So, what if we try with the precipitable water?



It looks way better...

So I detrend the series, to compare the cross-correlation. Anomalies of the downward radiation flux, explained by the anomalies of the black-body emmision :



Anomalies of the downward radiation flux, explained by the anomalies of the precipitable water :



Anomalies of the anomalies of the precipitable water, explained by the temperature at 500 hPa :



I will not try an argument about chickens and eggs. It is of course difficult to disentangled all the mechanisms ongoing. But at least the increasing of water vapor, linked to warming of the temperatures but also to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, is increasing downward radiations.

The major point is that a warming of 20°C or 30°C is not impossible at surface is thus not impossible. With global warming, the "thin" -a 2 km thick and 20°C inversion is massive for an inversion in the absolute, but compared to the whole atmosphere this it is not so thick nor so cold- the "thin" layer of permanent inversion is set to be destroyed, with only marginal warming above. Usually there is around 5 to 10°C between surface and 850 hPa. Even a 7-8°C lapse rate with a 850 hPa layer around 250K would imply a mean surface temperature a bit below 260K, around -15°C, barely enough cold for sea ice. This graph shows the warming of the Arctic layers :



The surface 1000 hPa is warming fast and is now warmer than the 850 hPa for the first time since 1981 (and probably since many millenniums...). And the strength of the inversion (or of the now non-inversion) taken as the difference between the 850 hPa and 1000 hPa temperatures :





I will post the spreadsheet with the data a bit latter ;)

P.S. : THe spreadsheet www.climatvisu.fr/Neven_ASIF/dlwr_out_2.ods

48
Arctic sea ice / MOVED: Milankovich Cycle doubts
« on: January 31, 2017, 09:17:01 PM »

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