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Topics - Tom_Mazanec

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The rest / Speed of AGW
« on: June 05, 2019, 05:44:02 PM »
While AGW is happening in an instant in Geologic Time, it is spanning lifetimes, which is actuallya problem (I think Jared Diamond called this something like a 'floating normal'...forgot the exact term)

Consequences / Worst consequence of AGW
« on: June 03, 2019, 12:49:17 PM »
What effect of AGW is the worst specific one of all?
Increased heat?
Decreased food production?
Sea level rise?
Weather disasters?
New pandemic potentials?
Climate Refugees?
Trigger for War?
Something else?

Consequences / AGW and climate zones
« on: June 03, 2019, 12:19:23 PM »
IIRC, AGW can wipe out the arctic and subarctic climate zones, making the poles temperate in wind circulation. Is this correct?
Could AGW create a new equatorial climate zone, a "supertropical" one to coin a term?

Science / Projecting to 2150
« on: June 01, 2019, 03:37:23 PM »
I think climate projections should start going out to 2150. When climate modeling (and other modeling like Club of Rome) began 2100 was about 13 decades it is only about 8. The grandchildren of today's children might live to see 2150. And AGW will continue at least this long.
Will we still be projecting to 2100 several decades from now?

Consequences / AGW consequences where you live
« on: June 01, 2019, 03:33:06 PM »
Let this thread be for saying where you live, and you (or other people) say how this will be affected by AGW.
For example, I live in Twinsburg. I am far from the coastline, so I will not be affected by SLR. A hot summer afternoon might be 32 C, so it might rise to 35 C...uncomfortable, but livable. And I hate snow. It almost looks like AGW would improve my life.
What am I missing?

Science / Not twelve years left, but one
« on: May 29, 2019, 09:48:02 PM »
Greenhouse emissions must peak next year and rapidly drop thereafter to save us:

The rest / Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: May 22, 2019, 01:05:53 AM »
I used to think PO would save the Earth's climate.
Now I'm not so sure.
Here is Greenpeace's take:
What's yours?

The rest / Earth 2100
« on: May 11, 2019, 03:19:56 PM »
Well, I will carefully end my moratorium on starting new threads. I hope nobody objects.
June 2 is the ten year anniversary of this ABC program, which is the The Day After of AGW.

Compare this with OTL (as AltHist aficionados call the real world).

The rest / Club of Rome World model
« on: April 18, 2019, 10:57:11 PM »
Does anyone know where to get this model to run on a Mac (or Windows, though mine is a Mac) computer?

The rest / Climate on Reddit
« on: April 17, 2019, 06:27:37 PM » gives a number of scary headlines, but seldom updates. updates very frequently, but has a lot of "local" weather events. has more local events that might be of interest to us, but does not update often. sometimes covers climate protests et al. updates moderately often and has good AGW articles. is very good for subject and frequency of update. updates only occasionally and covers other facets of the global Metacrisis as well as AGW.
On the other side of the aisle, gives the denier side of the issue. You may want to debate on that reddit. Or not.

Any others I've missed, on either side of the aisle?

The rest / Why I am getting more worried about AGW (a personal story)
« on: April 17, 2019, 04:54:33 PM »
Until recently, my bugaboo about what the world will be like when I am old was Peak Oil. I thought we would either be getting a post-oil technology and infrastructure by now, or entering an Energy Crisis Hyperdepression.
Then came fracking. At first I thought (based on my reading PO blogs) that it would be a flash-in-the-pan. But it seems to have legs. Meanwhile, the things that I thought would start happening in years like 2050 in a BAU scenario started happening in years like 2015.
So was I right before, or now? Will fracking collapse in a year or two and transportation start breaking down, or will the Earth become a hotter, less livable planet?
EDIT: and is your story similar to mine (anybody)?

The rest / Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 16, 2019, 12:57:20 PM »
You have to walk the walk, not just talk the talk. When activists fly around the world but say we have to cut carbon emissions, it send the message that you have to sacrifice but I don't. Activists for civil rights were thrown in prison, attacked by police dogs, tear gassed, etc. and have mostly triumphed. Activists for climate change too often are do what I say, not what I do and have mostly failed.

The rest / How could I have done this better?
« on: April 16, 2019, 02:04:43 AM »
On this thread I purposely stated the optimistic end of my range of opinion on AGW, and it was still too extreme for the forum.
What tips do you have for any future debates I may have?
Do you have any answers to the people's arguments?

Consequences / World of 2030
« on: April 15, 2019, 03:17:55 PM »
All AGW projections seem to go to 2100, but this is too far in the future for emotional, as opposed to academic, interest for a lot of people (like me...I am 61 and have no children).
So what do you expect the world to be like in just eleven years? I  am not He Who Must Not Be Named, I do not anticipate human extinction by 2016 (but if you do, let me know), but I imagine it might be different from now.
Let me know what you expect , not what you want.

Science / 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: April 11, 2019, 04:40:14 PM »
As long ago as early December, 2018 it was reported that 2018 had hit an all-time record for CO2 emissions.
Do we have some early indications five months later how 2019 is trending?

Consequences / Dubia
« on: April 10, 2019, 09:01:54 PM »
A depiction of Earth a thousand years hence.
I think the sea level rise will be more from thermal expansion of sea water than coastal subsidence, but it is still a possible future:

The rest / Memory of Mankind
« on: April 10, 2019, 05:37:49 PM »
If you think AGW will end Civilization but not Humanity, donate your favorite text to Memory of Mankind:

Consequences / Blue Ocean Event by Dave Borlace
« on: April 10, 2019, 02:14:21 AM »
Is this video a reasonable depiction of what a BOE would mean?

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