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Topics - KiwiGriff

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Consequences / Hurricane Season 2020
« on: January 15, 2020, 05:20:25 AM »
Quote
FORECAST TO 1200 UTC THU 16-JAN-2020
Tropical Disturbance TD04F (93P)was located just north of northern
Vanuatu 1800UTC this morning. The chance for this system to develop
into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is HIGH.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC SUN 19-JAN-2020
TD04F (93P) has a HIGH chance of being a tropical cyclone from
overnight tonight (Wednesday) onwards, and is forecast to move
southeast. On this track, the system is expected to affect Fiji and
Rotuma during Friday. A number of warnings and alerts issued by Fiji
Meteorological Service are currently in force for Fiji and Rotuma.
Please visit www.met.gov.fj for details while the system remains
north of 25S.

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

When I spent time in Fiji around 2006 the locals said that Fiji has not been hit directly for decades.
This may be the forth direct impact since 2006 .
 
Like the so called Floridian "shield" or low rate  of land falls in the Continental USA over the last two decades  such an anomaly is  a matter of random chance.
South_Pacific_cyclone_tracks_1980-2005

 

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