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Science / Water availability
« on: January 04, 2020, 03:10:30 PM »
The world's population is growing rapidly, and by 2100 will exceed 10 billion.

As a result, the shortage of drinking water is increasing.

The clearest example of this was the situation in the Dead Sea region.

Science / The film about the first flight into the stratosphere
« on: December 07, 2019, 11:52:56 AM »
It is an amazing story how in the middle of the 19th century people's craving for weather forecasting led to the first flight into the stratosphere. This flight did not even use spare oxygen, two researchers almost died from suffocation at an altitude of 11 km.

I read in the news that in recent times in Chile, events similar to France and the United States. As you know, there was a riot of yellow vests in France because of high gas prices. In the USA it was even more unusual - the denier of global warming - billionaire Trump came to power.

As for Chile, they write that the reason for the riots in expensive electricity is due to the green policy of the government. How true is that?

<snip, no links to websites that are so idiotic that they still deny the existence of AGW, most climate risk deniers have started to move beyond that idiocy in the past 5 years, and confine themselves to denying climate change has potential risks; N.>

Policy and solutions / Alaska Coal and Warming
« on: October 29, 2019, 05:57:19 AM »
As you know, the northern coast of Alaska is an area with one of the fastest warming on the planet.

But at the same time, Alaska has the largest reserves of fossil fuels.

There is such a huge amount of coal on the north coast of Alaska that it is enough for 600 years of modern consumption. The amount of coal in Alaska is 10 times the mass of carbon that human civilization has already thrown away (about half a trillion tons). And about the same amount of carbon reserves in the Persian Gulf.

Science / Little known greenhouse gases
« on: July 07, 2019, 04:20:38 PM »
As you know, now the main struggle is with emissions of carbon dioxide and methane. But the chemical industry produces many other gases that have greenhouse properties. Their influence on climate can be comparable to CO2 and CH4.

(H)CFCs are ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and have been successfully been phased out under the Montreal Protocol. As a result, the abundance of ODSs in the atmosphere has declined and the ozone layer is expected to recover. CFCs also had higher Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) than the HFCs replacing them. As such, by replacing CFCs by HFCs, the refrigeration and air-conditioning industry and other users not only contributed to the preservation of the ozone layer, but also made a most significant and positive contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Their reduction would represent about four times the objective of the Kyoto Protocol. In 1990, CFCs represented 25 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2002, the emissions from the use of HFCs were about 0.5 % of total global GHG emissions and according to the US NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), which provides annual updates of the AGGI (Annual Greenhouse Gas Index), intended to follow the evolution of the radiative forcing (ability of all greenhouse gases to trap heat) of greenhouse gases, the HFC impact in 2016, was 0.89 % of the total GHG emissions.

In the 1980s, scientists discovered that the earth’s protective ozone layer was thinning, raising the risk of skin cancer and cataracts. The culprits were chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), chemical substances widely used in spray cans, refrigeration and air conditioning equipment, and heretofore considered as safe because they are non-toxic, not inflammable and not explosive.

The international community reacted quickly and adopted the Montreal protocol in 1987, which phases out ozone-destroying substances. However, it turns out that the F-gases which replace CFCs contribute to global warming, having a global warming potential up to 23 000 times higher than CO2. F-gases account for around 2% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The worldwide use of F-gases has grown rapidly and reached almost 500 million tonnes CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2005. The rapid growth is expected to continue with growing demand for refrigeration and air conditioning, especially in developing countries. By 2050, F-gases could account for 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Refrigerant leaks in mobile air conditioning systems are common and hard to prevent. To reduce the climate impacts from air condition in vehicles, the Mobile Air Conditioning (MAC) Directive requires that new cars be equipped with air conditioning systems that use more climate-friendly refrigerants. However,  Mercedes-Benz recently discovered that the relatively climate-friendly refrigerant R1234xy can catch fire in a car crash. The company intends to continue using HFC-134a, whose global warming potential 1320 times higher than CO2, and risks infringement proceedings for violation of the MAC Directive.

Projections for global f-gas emissions 2005-2050. Source: Umweltbundesamt

Glaciers / International project "Ice Memory"
« on: June 09, 2019, 01:10:26 PM »
In Antarctica, trying to create a safe repository of ice cores of all the glaciers of the world. (P.S. "They expect that Antarctica does not melt quickly"?)

Putting 20,000 years of history on ice: French project is saving glaciers from climate change
Scientists are storing glacier samples to learn more about environmental history

As climate change erases our record of the long-term past, a team of scientists is putting 20,000 years of environmental history on ice. "The aim is to create a heritage for future generations of scientists," explains Jérôme Chappellaz, research director at France's National Centre for Scientific Research and co-initiator of the Ice Memory project. "Otherwise the glaciers, the raw material for the ideas of tomorrow, will disappear."

Ice trapped at the bottom of some glaciers dates back to 18,000 BCE - when glacial coverage was at its peak. As it froze it trapped bubbles of atmospheric gas and radioactive substances, along with dust and pollen. By drilling a cylindrical core through the ice, Chappellaz's team can extract a timeline of the changing environment around the glacier, and how human activity has affected it.

"We will measure water isotopes and concentrations of chemical species and trace gases," he explains. "In future we should develop the methods to access this signal, to study the genome and its evolution, in trapped bacteria and viruses."

New analytic techniques will be useless, however, without material to analyse. Although ice sheltered more than 100 metres down at the bottom of a glacier won't be disappearing soon, continuous melting at the surface can cause meltwater to percolate down and distort the geochemical signals preserved below.

So, starting with the collection of three 130-metre-long samples from Col du Dôme glacier in the Mont Blanc massif in August 2016, the Ice Memory project plans to create a library of hundreds of cores in an ice cave at Antarctica's Concordia Research Station, where mean annual temperatures hover around -54°C.

The first two missions and the ice cave's construction are already funded with $3 million (£2.4m) from research organisations and private donors. Institutions in nine other countries have expressed interest in contributing samples.

"In the long term, this is the safest way to keep samples frozen," explains Chappellaz. "Antarctica is the only territory having no property rights and being devoted to science. The ice cores will not belong to French or Italian glaciologists. They will be a legacy to the scientific community, whatever the nationality."

Glaciers / Glaciers of New Guinea
« on: June 09, 2019, 09:41:08 AM »
This year may be the last for the glaciers of one of the largest islands on the planet.
The remaining remnant glaciers on Punkak Jaya were once part of an icecap that developed approximately 5,000 years ago. At least one previous icecap also existed in the region between 15,000 and 7,000 years ago, when it also apparently melted away and disappeared.[1]

November 3, 1988

The top image shows that, as of 1988, five masses of ice rested on the mountain slopes.

October 9, 2009

By 2009, the Meren and Southwall glaciers had disappeared, and the Carstensz, East Northwall Firn, and West Northwall Firn had retreated dramatically.

December 5, 2017

By the time OLI acquired the 2017 image, the West Northwall Firn had also disappeared. Turn on the image comparison tool to see the changes.

Glaciers / Kilimanjaro Glaciers
« on: June 09, 2019, 07:45:39 AM »
It is believed that this is one of the oldest glaciers on the planet.
Because of the exceptionally prolonged dry conditions during the subsequent Younger Dryas stadial, the ice fields on Kilimanjaro may have become extinct around 11,500 years BP.[81] Ice cores taken from Kilimanjaro's Northern Ice Field (NIF) indicates that the glaciers there have a basal age of about 11,700 years,[83] although an analysis of ice taken in 2011 from exposed vertical cliffs in the NIF supports an age extending only to 800 years BP.[84] Higher precipitation rates at the beginning of the Holocene epoch (11,500 years BP) allowed the ice cap to reform.[81] The glaciers survived a widespread drought during a three century period beginning around 4,000 years BP.[81][85]

Now this 12-thousand-year-old ice is on the verge of total destruction.

This week marks 19 years since AWS measurements began on Kilimanjaro's Northern Icefield (NIF). With enthusiastic help from our Tanzanian crew, Mathias Vuille and I installed a tower into the ice and connected the electronics. Remarkably, the same datalogger continues measurement and control functions, and the same solar panels continue to provide power. Most sensors have been swapped out for recalibration or replacement, yet the original barometric pressure sensor continues reliable measurements every hour.

Ice ablation since 2000 has substantially reduce the areal extent of all glaciers on the mountain. However, this portion of the NIF has "only" thinned by ~5 meters, because the low surface gradient retards meltwater runoff - which then refreezes in place as superimposed ice. Other portions of the NIF, and other glaciers, have thinned more dramatically. For example, ice no longer remains at February 2000 drill sites on the Furtwängler and Decken Glaciers, which were 9.5 and ~20 m thick at the time (respectively).

For comparison, the length of the longest cores of the Northern glacier does not exceed 50 meters:
In January and February of 2000, six ice cores were drilled to bedrock from the three remnant ice fields on the rim and summit plateau atop Kilimanjaro (3° 03.7' S; 37° 21.2' E; 5893 m asl). The three longest cores (NIF1, NIF2, NIF3) were drilled to depths of 50.9, 50.8, and 49.0 meters, respectively, from the Northern Ice Field (NIF), the largest of the ice bodies.

Now this glacier is 5 meters thinner.

The radar in 2015 confirms that the thickness of this glacier is not more than 50 meters.

The GPR profiles reveal an ice thickness ranging between (6.1 ± 0.5) and (53.5 ± 1.0) m. Combining these data with a very high resolution digital elevation model we spatially extrapolate ice thickness and give an estimate of the total ice volume remaining at NIF's southern portion as (12.0 ± 0.3) × 106 m3.

Photo of the heroic ice floe:

Science / Magnitude of future warming
« on: May 30, 2019, 05:11:33 AM »
It is interesting to know the opinion of people on the forum about the magnitude of future warming. Official (conservative) forecasts indicate a warming of 2 degrees by 2100.

Other studies are inclined to 10 degrees.
"Our results show that the amount of carbon that drove the PETM warming was about the same amount as the current 'easily accessible' fossil fuel reserves of about 4,000 billion tons. But the warming that would result from adding such large amounts of carbon to the climate system would be much greater today than during the PETM and could reach up to 10 degrees.

Finally, third scientists believe that warming will turn the planet into a Venusian steam room, and space colonization will be the only salvation.

Speaking at the Tencent WE Summit Sunday, Hawking warned that overpopulation and extreme energy consumption will turn Earth into a fire ball by the year 2600.

Policy and solutions / AGW - is it bad or good?
« on: May 29, 2019, 04:11:25 AM »
I decided to ask the opinion of the people. As most people think, climate change is bad or good. This is very important in light of the feasibility of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Policy and solutions / When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: May 28, 2019, 06:16:59 AM »
Many believe that space colonization will not be able to solve the problem of the coming climate catastrophe. Most hope that it will soon be possible to create carbon-free energy. But the facts say that carbon dioxide emissions are increasing every year (despite the Paris Agreement).

Moreover, in the United States, Trump became the president, who believes that there is no global warming.

In this regard, I decided to create a poll on when carbon dioxide emissions will pass...

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