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Topics - Juan C. García

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1
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: July 31, 2019, 04:19:25 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2018 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71

From lowest to highest:

2
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2019, as measured by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46

Order by lowest to highest:

3
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:57:01 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2018 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71

From lowest to highest:

4
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2019, as measured by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46

Order by lowest to highest:

5
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2018 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71

From lowest to highest:

6
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2019, as measured by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46

Order by lowest to highest:

7
Science / Ocean oxygen levels
« on: February 28, 2019, 07:51:01 AM »
Quote
Widespread and sometimes drastic marine oxygen declines are stressing sensitive species—a trend that will continue with climate change
...
In the past decade ocean oxygen levels have taken a dive—an alarming trend that is linked to climate change, says Andreas Oschlies, an oceanographer at the Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel in Germany, whose team tracks ocean oxygen levels worldwide. “We were surprised by the intensity of the changes we saw, how rapidly oxygen is going down in the ocean and how large the effects on marine ecosystems are,” he says.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ocean-is-running-out-of-breath-scientists-warn/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly-review&utm_content=link&utm_term=2019-02-27_featured-this-week&spMailingID=58597866&spUserID=Mzg1NDE5MjQyNDEyS0&spJobID=1583431364&spReportId=MTU4MzQzMTM2NAS2

8
Policy and solutions / Social Activism
« on: November 08, 2018, 04:50:59 AM »
Focusing on what has happened…

I started contact with Neven in May or June 2012 and I was shocked with the ASI drop on August, after the Great Arctic Cyclone. I was also impressed by the 2012 PIOMAS Volume graph made by Wipneus. So, when on the first months of 2013 appeared cracks on the ASI, well, several of us were concern of what could happen that year. Finally, 2013 was a good year for the ice and 2014 was even better. It had passed 6 years since 2012 and the collapse has not happened.

Or it has happened?  :o

On extent, the ASI has not even able to break the 2007 record, not to mention the 2012 record. So, there are some people saying that 2012 is an outlier and even 2007 will be difficult to break. But I don’t like extent! Yes, it is important to measure the effect of the Arctic Ocean albedo. But to measure the ASI drop, I am convinced that we should use volume, even if it is harder to measure than extent.

So, what do I see on volume?

First, volume on 2007 has been broken several times. On volume, 2007 is the ninth lowest on record! And even that September 2012 is still the lowest, the difference between 2012 with 2010-2011 and 2016-17 is not that big.

But on the other hand, while 2012 has not been broken, the decadal average show us that we
have a very different Arctic. By example, look at Aug-Oct average on a decadal basis.  The 1990-99 average of 93.6% changed to 68.5% on 2000-09 and to 39.5% on 2010-18.

So, do we need a catastrophe to prove a catastrophe? From my point of view, the catastrophe has already happened. The 39.5% ice that we have on 2010-18, versus the 1979-2000 baseline, is climate change, not just one year, not weather change.

My point is that with what has already happened, we should not be waiting for another bad year. We should be doing social activism. Expressing that there is no time to waste on banal discussions.

9
Science / Ocean temperatures
« on: October 31, 2018, 11:28:59 PM »
I did not find this topic. I am not an expert, but it is important to have it.

Quote
Startling new research finds large buildup of heat in the oceans, suggesting a faster rate of global warming.

Over the past quarter-century, Earth’s oceans have retained 60 percent more heat each year than scientists previously had thought, said Laure Resplandy, a geoscientist at Princeton University who led the startling study published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/

Quote
The new research does not measure the ocean’s temperature directly. Rather, it measures the volume of gases, specifically oxygen and carbon dioxide, that have escaped the ocean in recent decades and headed into the atmosphere as it heats up. The method offered scientists a reliable indicator of ocean temperature change because it reflects a fundamental behavior of a liquid when heated.

10
Maybe this topic will not last long, but I need to ask.

On 2016, we had a lot of heat on the Atlantic Ocean, that melted the ASI. An example of the heat we had, we can see the topic Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation. So, on 2017 I was thinking that we were going to have the same heat on the Atlantic side, but it didn't happen.

Also, on July 2017, I was surprise to see the general weakening of the Antarctic Ice, expressed on the National Geographic article The Larsen C Ice Shelf Collapse Is Just the Beginning—Antarctica Is Melting. I have been following the Arctic for more than a decade, but I must recognize that I do not have the same knowledge on the Antarctic. Five years ago, the Antarctica was for me the strong Pole, the one that could be increasing in ice, not losing the ice at the bottom. So, on July I was surprise to see that there are kind of important currents that go under the Antarctica, that they are melting the ice, generating possible collapses in several regions.

So, giving the ocean currents that go all around the world, I start to think if it is possible to have some heat go all the way from the Arctic to Antarctica (or cold currents that go from Antarctica to the Northern Hemisphere) and if this heat transfer could explain that the North Atlantic Ocean was cooler on 2017.

Given the fact that Greenland has also some places that are below sea level, I wonder if there is also bottom melting on Greenland ice. I also saw the paper of A. K. Hamilton et al: “Dynamic response of an Arctic epishelf lake” mention by sidd. And it is more of the same subject: the contact of ice on land (or close to land but below sea level) with ocean currents, that could be taking heat out of the Arctic Ocean.

What do you think? Could the melting of ice on Antarctica, Greenland, Ellesmere Island, etc. be a short term negative feedback, that could explain some facts, like that at 2017 we were expecting a stronger melt on September, but at the end, it didn’t happen?

Also, could the medicine be worse than the illness? Does a possible delay on an ice-free Arctic could mean, on the other hand, a faster melt on Greenland, Antarctica, etc.?

I will appreciate your comments and if you know about papers on this subject.

11
ATTENTION:  This is the JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum.

This JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent (previously released by IJIS, and now by ADS and NIPR) poll will run for 11 days. Until then you can change your vote.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2000:   6.04
2001:   6.55
2002:   5.53
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26
2016:   4.02

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various JAXA-ADS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

12
ATTENTION:  This is the JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS).

This JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent (previously released by IJIS, and now by ADS and NIPR) poll will run for 11 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2000:   6.04
2001:   6.55
2002:   5.53
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26
2016:   4.02

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various JAXA-ADS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

13
This JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent (previously released by IJIS, and now by ADS and NIPR) poll will run for 11 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2000:   6.04
2001:   6.55
2002:   5.53
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26
2016:   4.02

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various JAXA-ADS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

14
PIOMAS Volume (Monthly average, 1,000 km3)
(Monthly minimums highlighted in red)

Year      Jan       Feb       Mar      Apr      May       Jun        Jul      Aug      Sep       Oct      Nov      Dec   
1979   27.70   30.17   32.05   32.95   32.30   29.79   23.66   18.41   16.91   17.85   20.12   23.20   
1980   26.53   29.15   31.13   32.24   31.81   29.15   22.87   17.79   16.32   17.33   19.42   22.45   
1981   25.32   27.77   29.82   30.74   30.03   26.82   20.17   14.64   12.81   13.97   16.15   19.12   
1982   22.63   25.49   27.65   28.97   28.30   25.62   19.67   14.83   13.51   14.91   17.77   21.07   
1983   24.46   27.28   29.39   30.39   30.17   27.76   21.85   16.74   15.20   16.43   18.95   21.96   
1984   24.73   27.21   29.15   30.33   29.82   27.09   20.94   16.15   14.64   15.66   18.10   21.29   
1985   24.64   27.26   29.45   30.86   30.52   27.49   20.77   16.01   14.58   15.84   18.29   21.29   
1986   24.68   27.52   29.77   30.93   30.46   27.86   21.95   17.29   16.08   17.38   19.86   22.74   
1987   26.03   28.84   30.66   31.79   31.50   28.81   22.27   16.71   15.35   16.70   19.26   22.30   
1988   25.47   28.13   30.28   31.20   30.21   27.23   21.10   16.33   14.99   16.25   18.93   22.13   
1989   25.36   27.84   29.42   30.11   29.62   27.12   21.08   16.20   14.77   15.94   18.65   21.80   
1990   24.97   27.63   29.39   29.91   28.91   25.49   19.52   14.89   13.82   15.22   18.26   21.52   
1991   24.69   27.48   29.67   30.74   30.01   26.79   20.01   15.01   13.59   15.02   17.69   20.89   
1992   24.18   26.91   28.68   29.64   29.26   26.85   20.90   15.92   15.08   16.58   19.16   22.33   
1993   25.30   27.72   29.46   30.43   29.58   25.81   18.51   13.48   12.44   13.96   16.98   20.40   
1994   23.85   26.67   28.71   29.74   29.31   26.55   20.03   14.90   13.86   15.20   17.94   21.21   
1995   24.20   26.43   27.95   28.45   27.31   23.81   17.19   12.44   11.24   12.13   14.84   18.18   
1996   21.65   24.47   26.39   27.45   27.26   24.87   19.28   14.90   13.95   15.39   17.40   20.15   
1997   23.50   26.32   28.32   29.37   28.74   25.72   19.24   14.38   13.23   14.20   16.62   19.92   
1998   23.47   26.36   28.30   29.41   28.82   25.36   18.58   13.29   11.63   12.81   15.64   18.95   
1999   22.43   25.32   27.30   28.45   27.92   24.88   18.52   13.08   11.05   12.43   15.38   18.39   
2000   21.71   24.30   26.17   27.15   26.69   23.88   17.43   12.42   11.08   12.31   14.90   17.95   
2001   21.26   24.13   26.41   27.63   26.87   23.83   17.90   13.40   12.28   13.32   15.76   18.61   
2002   21.84   24.79   26.66   27.43   26.82   23.69   17.16   12.13   10.85   11.89   14.59   17.84   
2003   21.24   24.13   26.31   27.24   26.27   22.91   16.49   11.50   10.28   11.20   13.69   16.85   
2004   20.05   22.66   24.81   25.75   25.31   22.71   16.58   11.52   10.04   11.25   13.97   17.24   
2005   20.25   22.67   24.82   26.05   25.35   21.62   15.23   10.71     9.28   10.18   12.85   15.98   
2006   19.31   22.04   24.05   25.11   24.34   20.90   14.69   10.40     9.11     9.81   12.26   15.04   
2007   18.32   20.81   23.00   23.75   23.09   19.19   12.12     7.62     6.53     7.11   10.40   14.17   
2008   18.52   21.53   23.82   24.98   24.12   20.58   14.15     9.20     7.25     8.27   11.70   15.13   
2009   18.79   21.68   23.79   24.94   23.88   19.73   12.83     8.27     6.93     7.63   10.76   14.18   
2010   17.67   20.58   23.08   24.10   22.22   17.14   10.24     5.93     4.74     6.20     9.48   12.93   
2011   16.21   19.32   21.39   22.50   21.14   16.50     9.55     5.49     4.48     5.72     9.25   12.99   
2012   16.89   19.59   21.92   23.12   21.71   16.00     9.26     4.96     3.79     5.00     8.22   12.13   
2013   15.80   19.32   21.96   23.12   21.87   17.54   10.54     6.39     5.48     6.95   10.08   13.79   
2014   17.41   19.85   21.80   22.94   21.91   17.68   11.95     8.15     6.97     8.16   11.48   15.07   
2015   18.45   21.46   23.21   24.23   23.03   18.56   11.65     7.09     5.85     7.01   10.30   14.00   
2016   17.19   19.59   21.52   22.46   21.03   16.49   10.26     5.94     4.53     5.51     7.83   11.21   
2017   14.64   17.37   19.60   20.65

15
Arctic sea ice / Choosing a Base to compare ASI lost on PIOMAS Volume
« on: December 22, 2016, 09:42:22 PM »
The Excel file with all the information is at the following link:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/vngwlttpwvz7on9/Piomas_ASI_Lost.xlsx?dl=0

These data and graphs could help you to choose:

16
August has started and it is the time to do the last 2016 IJIS/NIPR poll!  :)

This ADS Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS also known as IJIS, NIPR and JAXA) poll will run for 10 days. Until then you can change your vote.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various ADS-IJIS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

17
A new month has started!

This ADS Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS also known as IJIS, JAXA and NIPR) poll will run for 10 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various ADS-IJIS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

18
This ADS Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS also known as IJIS, JAXA and NIPR) poll will run for 10 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various ADS-IJIS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

19
Do you think that it is unacceptable that the IPCC developed this kind of ice-free definition? Should they changed it immediately?
It will be good if you write us a comment.

20
Knowing that NSIDC and Cryosphere Today are having problems, one of the great sources for Sea Ice Extent is the Japanese group ADS-JAXA, formerly known also as IJIS.
This ADS-JAXA extent poll will run for 10 days (until May 19th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the actual graph published by ADS here.

21
Arctic sea ice / Cyclones and ice-free Arctic
« on: June 07, 2015, 12:18:16 AM »
We define ice-free Arctic as a day in which there is less than 1 million km2 of Arctic sea ice area, measure by Cryosphere Today

22
Arctic sea ice / Ice-free Arctic (Cryosphere Today SIA)
« on: July 03, 2013, 06:20:14 AM »
I appreciate your comments  :)

23
Arctic sea ice / Models of projected Arctic sea ice decline.
« on: March 02, 2013, 09:53:26 PM »
At the beginning of 2007, four scientists of the NSIDC and one of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (all at the University of Boulder, Colorado) wrote the article “Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast” (1). This article showed that the models developed by IPCC overvalue the stability of the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), so that the real melting of sea ice was faster than what the IPCC models were forecasting. They also published a graph that has become a continuous reference, showing the IPCC SIE models versus the real decline of sea ice. (Graph 1)

It is important to emphasize that this article was made six months before the new September 2007 SIE record, which means that the values of 2005-2006 trigger this criticism to the IPCC models.

After six years, having new 2007 and 2012 SIE records, they are developing new models but they continue to underestimate the actual melt. From my point of view, it is unacceptable that almost all the models put the Arctic sea ice free after 2100. Only the worst scenario has a sea ice free at 2060 (according to the definition of Arctic sea ice free happens when NSIDC SIE average is less than one million km2) (Graph 2) (2).

But instead of trying to change the IPCC forecast, I would like to propose another action. Now the USA National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) has a draft document to comment and it will become the Third Climate Assessment Report. So I want to propose that we seek to include a forecast of Arctic sea ice free, based on PIOMAS volume. The reviewing deadline is April 12, 2013.

What do you think? Do you agree that the IPCC models, as they are right now, are worthless? Would you like to make the effort to include a PIOMAS volume forecast on the USA Third Climate Assessment Report?

The link is: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/

If we succeed, the UNEP also publishes an Annual Report and we can look to include the same forecast for the Year Book 2014.

(1) Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze (2007), Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
Publication History
Issue published online: 1 MAY 2007
Article first published online: 1 MAY 2007
Manuscript Accepted: 26 MAR 2007
Manuscript Received: 15 FEB 2007

(2) Graph taken from the “Federal Advisory Committee Draft Climate Assessment Report Released for Public Review”, “2. Our Changing Climate”, page 68. Green lines added to show 2012 September record and Arctic sea ice free at 1 million km2.

24
Arctic sea ice / Arctic sea ice free (extent)
« on: March 01, 2013, 09:12:01 PM »
I will appreciate your comments about your answer  :)

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