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Topics - bbr2315

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Permafrost / Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 29, 2020, 03:54:15 PM »
I have been exploring the Himalayan anomaly this year. Initially it seemed to be a data error but clearly it is not. I believe that there has been a major increase in extant snowcover and depth as confirmed by the Canuck charts over the Himalayas this summer.

The crocodilians came about in the Arctic when Greenland was not extant. What if we are now seeing snow lines falling in the tropics / mid-low latitudes and rising at the Pole?

The Himalayan event has correlated with the Chinese floods. If this is some kind of state change or long term oscillation (i.e., one year it is Quebec, the next the Rockies, the next Himalayas, where the orographic anomalies anchor...?) the floods may continue. I would suggest that the "Quebec hypothesis" although wrong in its inception did touch on this idea of specific NHEM regions retaining coverage through summer.

What if this begins in a piecemeal fashion (i.e. one summer it is one region, and the region switches each summer), and then accelerates to where it is happening in 2 regions, 3 regions, then all regions?

It could also be possible that we have been "shifting" into a gear that puts the Himalayas at the forefront of the summertime cryosphere. But this shifting may do the same to other mountain ranges -- so there is also potentially a domino effect.

This is all speculation, clearly, but I would suggest that the next region to fall to a major increase in summertime snow coverage could, paradoxically and surprisingly, be the Southern Rockies. From a planetary wave perspective it is roughly equidistant on the other side vs the Himalayas.

If +SWE can begin accumulating at highest elevations in both the Rockies and Himalayas as it continues dwindling in the highest latitudes alongside ice volume, this would have PROFOUND impacts on global climate.

IMO this suggest summertime polar/Ferrell cells over the continents / fed by the SWE and albedo feedbacks, which deposit massive amounts of the worsening +OHC over the mountain ranges at their core (and cold areas at periphery).

ALSO: I think this new system sark is illuminating and I am hopefully further exploring does NOT necessarily mean Greenland melt will abate. In fact, I wonder if the lower snow lines go in the Himalayas and Rockies, the higher they get on Greenland? The mountaintop +SWE/extent anomalies will evacuate huge quantities of oceanic heat poleward, and if we get BOE and the Arctic also begins being unable to evacuate its stored heat each year, all of that excess is going to go into Greenland, potentially as glacial advance begins again atop the Rockies / Himalayas.

The politics / Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: June 21, 2020, 09:31:19 PM »

I think the battlegrounds this election are (in order of Trump victory likelihood // my guess on pop vote margin in each state) --

Ohio | T +8
Arizona | T +7
Iowa | T +7
Florida | T +4
Michigan | T +4
Pennsylvania | T +3
New Hampshire | T +3
Wisconsin | T+2
Minnesota | T+.5
Oregon | B +.5
Colorado | B +2
Nevada | B +5
New Jersey | B +5
Connecticut | B +5
Virginia | B +6

Trump has about 3 points of margin right now IMO. He can lose everything up to Michigan and still win the election.

I could see a range of "surprise" scenarios resulting in an EC total very close to 269 v 269. Attaching two of those scenarios as well.

It would be very interesting if the first election for MN to go red in forever was the one where it determined the cycle. Lol. They definitely have reason.

I think this thread (?) is the place for the below analysis, but correct me if I am wrong, Oren. I noticed Lake Winnipeg appears to be an epicenter for the impending cold across North America, and this caused me to go back through recent satellite data to report on melt date for the lake each year.

I used EOSDIS for the analysis. I consider 90%+ melt to be "melt date".

2019: 5/24
2018: 5/28
2017: 5/20
2016: 5/9
2015: 5/18
2014: 6/3
2013: 5/31
2012: 5/5
2011: 5/24
2010: 5/3
2009: 5/28
2008: 5/26
2007: 5/13
2006: 5/2
2005: 5/10
2004: 5/31
2003: 5/17
2002: 5/31
2001: 5/17
2000: 5/6

In the above group, the "early" stand-outs (before 5/10) are 2000, 2006, 2010, 2012, and 2016. The "late" stand-outs (5/25+) are 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2018.

Comparing the ensuing contrast between June, July, and August in those years, there are a few apparent differences that this indicator could be helpful in predicting.

1) In the late-melt years, the cold in Jun-August was focused in North America, with some spillage into Eurasia. In the early-melt years, cold was focused in the eastern Pacific, and it appears this resulted in much more advection / heat over North America.

2) Both early and late melt years featured hot Junes over Central / Northern Siberia. The late melt years featured more summertime heat focused over Scandinavia and the Barents, the early melt years featured more summertime heat over Western Russia.

3) June in early-melt years featured -500MB anomalies centered over the Arctic, with minor centers in the Barents and Hudson. June in late-melt years featured -500MB anomalies split between the Canadian Maritimes and Western Russia.

4) July-August in early-melt years feature a strong -500MB anomaly over the Kara / Barents, and strong +500MB anomalies over the Baffin / Greenland. July-August in late-melt years feature weak -500MB anomalies in the Okhotsk, CAA, North America, and the UK, with more tempered positive anomalies focused on the CAA, and stretching from Scandinavia into the Barents.

Thus, it appears that this metric has some predictive value for the ensuing summertime.

Current modeling portends the possibility of a very late melt-out of Lake Winnipeg. If past years are any indicator, this would signal a weak PV this summertime, with significant ridging extending from Scandinavia into the Barents and CAB come July-August. This would also be accompanied by continued relative cold into North America. Such a scenario could also portend warmth in June focused in the same region (Scandinavia -> Barents), with unseasonable cold centered in Western Russia.

I will keep an eye on Lake Winnipeg, but if this is of any value, it could be an early indicator favorable to a melt season that is especially impressive over the Eurasian sector, and somewhat muted across the CAA, with especially warm conditions possible from Scandinavia into Barents / CAB and also from Alaska into the Chukchi.

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