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Topics - TerryM

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Policy and solutions / What particularly causes "The Crash"
« on: February 10, 2014, 10:08:48 PM »
Yesterday I stopped and considered what it would take to change the BAU road that we're on. I and several others have been considering various solutions that might work after collapse, but I at least have spent far less time trying to understand how this would come about.
I've taken the perspective that as long as the grid is up and juice is flowing we're more or less in the same situation as we're in at present. With electricity being generated and transmitted things might get very bad, but not on an apocalyptic level.
Locally most of my power is hydro from Niagara Falls, it's not difficult to keep a facility like this running even if the economy simply melted away. Troops could be sent in, farmers crops could be commandeered to feed them and the juice would keep flowing. The only thing that shuts down the facility is armed conflict & I think this is true for most locales.
The three threats I've identified are Nuclear War, Conventional War and Civil War. Everything else can be managed by the power structures now in place - I think. If rising waters take out Miami and New York the financial losses would be immense, but the stock market moves to Detroit, waterfront villas open in Kansas and nothing much really changes.
TPTB have tools for keeping civilians in place that older cultures could only dream of, so civil war isn't too likely even when things are really bad. The US is so well armed that it would be national suicide for anyone to attack with conventional forces & that leaves only nukes - suicidal, but capable of causing huge destruction on this continent.
Bangladesh, The Maldives, perhaps some of the countries around the Mediterranean will be wiped out, but other than reading about it in Yahoo News, the powered elite aren't going to be terribly concerned. If Australia were to lose 90% of her population the remainder would be brewing their tea in electric kettles & cranking the AC up high.
I had worried about collapse within decades, but having thought a little more I don't think we'll lose power in the west for a millenia, no matter what happens in other regions.
If I've missed something, let me know.
Terry

2
Arctic sea ice / Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« on: April 09, 2013, 05:45:18 AM »
OLN & I are working on a presentation about the retreat of the Arctic Sea Ice. Something we hope to show is how predictions of when the Arctic will first be ice free have changed over time. Some predictions were for the first seasonally ice free Arctic & others were for a permanently ice free Arctic Ocean.


Any predictions that are attributable and datable within a year would be very much appreciated.


Terry

3
Arctic Background / Behind PII2012 on the Henry Larson
« on: March 30, 2013, 09:08:20 PM »
On August 10th of 2012 Captain Wayne Duffett took the Canadian Coastguard Ship Henry Larson into Petermann Fjord while PII2012 was still guarding the mouth of the Fjord.


In his blog Dr Andreas Muenchow, who comments from time to time at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog, gives a thrilling account of the voyage from an unexpected layover in Newfoundland, through the recovery of a 9 year old mooring that was assumed lost, to the discovery of unexpectedly warm subsurface waters in Petermann Fjord. His first hand account of exploring waters that had been permanently iced over until July 16th of that year is so exciting even when rereading that I still haven't gotten back to looking up the PII2012-A-1 data that I'd been seeking.

I'd recommend following the story from the time Andreas arrives in Canada.

http://icyseas.org/2012/07/31/nares-strait-2012-first-challenges-and-petermann-ice-island-coming/

Very few people throughout history have been to places where "no man has gone before". (Cue the music) 8)

Terry

4
The rest / The Case of the Drowned Polar Bears
« on: February 23, 2013, 06:55:17 PM »
The case against Dr. Charles Monnett, who had the audacity to write about observing drowned polar bears, may not yet over.

“Upon completion of my review, I have no findings of violations of the DOI Policy on Scientific and Scholarly Integrity [citation omitted] that would merit a further review of this case…I consider this matter closed.”

Despite this second turn-down, the case remains in an open status while the “office is evaluating the response from the bureau,” according to an IG official in a February 8, 2013 email.


I'm finding Obama's actions regarding the dissemination of information to be every bit as misguided as his predecessor's. If scientists are unable to report their findings even in peer reviewed literature, what sense does it make to do the research in the first place.

http://www.peer.org/news/news-releases/2013/02/14/drowned-polar-bear-paper-vindicated-%E2%80%93-again/

Aaron Swartz died rather than face prison for a victimless non crime that was never committed. Charles Monnett fought and won what may be a pyrrhic victory and every Canadian scientist (and apparently now their corroborators), need's to have the government sign off on their communications

http://planet3.org/2013/01/15/aaron-swartz/

http://sciencewriters.ca/initiatives/muzzling_canadian_federal_scientists/

Academic freedom may be an early victim in the Climate Change Wars.

Terry

5
Permafrost / What is Happening under a Cloud of Methane?
« on: February 22, 2013, 01:39:13 PM »
When a cloud passes between us and the sun the immediate chilling is felt. When a mist hangs over a valley it acts like a blanket trapping heat beneath it in an inversion layer. What I'm interested in is the effect that a "cloud" of CH4 will have as it hovers over a particular location.

What I'm looking for is something similar to the albedo ratio that would indicate what fraction of  long wave radiation should be expected to be bounced back to earth when there is an additional 100 ppb of CH4 over an area.

Lodger pointed out a graph showing CH4 to be 130 times as powerful a greenhouse gas as an equal amount of CO2 over a 10 year period. I followed his lead and have been asking the AMEG if they might have an answer, but no reply as of yet.

I think this could be an important metric when trying to understand how or if Arctic ice reacts to abrupt releases of CH4 as opposed to the long term effect that the release has on the climate.

While the effects of CH4 over 20 or 100 year periods is probably more important overall, a cloud of CH4 that persisted over an area for even part of the melt season might cause a hot spot that would lead to rapid ice melt & albedo change causing a localized positive feedback affecting a much larger area.

Terry

6
The forum / [Solved] HELP!!
« on: February 20, 2013, 10:46:27 PM »
When I posted my last reply this is the message I got back:

Notice: Undefined variable: boarddir in /homez.646/arcticse/forum/index.php on line 46

Notice: Undefined variable: sourcedir in /homez.646/arcticse/forum/index.php on line 50

Warning: require_once(/QueryString.php) [function.require-once]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /homez.646/arcticse/forum/index.php on line 50

Fatal error: require_once() [function.require]: Failed opening required '/QueryString.php' (include_path='.:/usr/local/lib/php') in /homez.646/arcticse/forum/index.php on line 50

I hadn't put in anything other than text. When I rebooted the site the same message was present  But when I closed the tab that this site was on and then rebooted it brought me back here.

Hopefully this will go through.

Terry

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