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Topics - Vergent

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1
Arctic sea ice / Melting of Floating Ice Has Raised Sea Level
« on: February 28, 2018, 10:50:34 PM »
The effect is small and limited to 4 cm. I had assumed that it had no effect. Just setting the record straight.

Since we have lost a significant portion of sea ice volume since 2005, this could account for the acceleration in SLR in recent years.

https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/20050801_floatingice.html

Verg

4
Arctic sea ice / USCGC Healy 2015
« on: June 20, 2015, 12:06:32 AM »


USCGC Healy has it's AloftCon up and running. Neven, you need to update the link:

http://icefloe.net/Aloftcon_Photos/index.php?album=2015

Verg

5
The arctic sea ice snow cover is about to be torched.



Here is the current snow cover.



Here is the forecast snow cover for the 12th.



Here was the snow cover on June 12, 2012.



Here is the snow cover on June 12, 2014



Here is June 12, 2013

My conclusion is that there will be high arctic melt pond formation even earlier than 2012. I think that this may be a really bad summer for the deniers and luke warmists.

Wow, nice illustration!!! What I find remarkable is how the snow cover as early in the season as June 12th seems to foretell the ice in September, not only extent, but also the shape of the pack.

In 2013 and 2014, it seems the "green" area's periphery for June 12 snow roughly matches the ice pack three months later, excluding the really low-concentration areas. However, in 2012 by that standard it looks like the whole ice pack is set to vanish - and we of course know that it didn't do so.

One possible explanation for this discrepancy is the double snowstorm that hit the central Arctic on June 16 and 20 or thereabouts. I wonder if we would see the snow cover maps for (say) June 23 or June 25 showing an inclination for that ice to likely survive the season.

Based on the extremely large amount of humid air projected to surround the Arctic by June 11th/12th according to CCI/GFS, it only takes one system to pull a plume of that over the arctic to result in an even bigger spike in surface melt than we already had - and though still too far out to really trust, the long range forecasts seem to call for the 12th and 13th to feature a low in Barents coupled with a high in the Pacific portion of the CAB. If this pans out, we will get a big tongue of "REALLY STEAMY" air (relatively speaking of course) injecting itself right into the heart of the central Arctic...
Note I mistakenly posted June 19, 2012 snow cover in my original post. I have corrected it there and in this quote.

Nightvid Cole,

Brilliant observation!
2012:




Here are links so you can flip between tabs:

http://i.imgur.com/QoaMAaj.png
http://i.imgur.com/dqyYLMu.png
http://i.imgur.com/uHf1x3C.png

An explanation for the Laptev Bight?

2013:




http://i.imgur.com/OjaqsPf.png
http://i.imgur.com/vAbxpVv.png
http://i.imgur.com/cfrUXtE.png

2014:




http://i.imgur.com/ueAoPzH.png
http://i.imgur.com/YlVWyOr.png
http://i.imgur.com/GZSLOQY.png

2015:



http://i.imgur.com/Dq3q388.png
http://i.imgur.com/0TntH9N.png

For 2013, this over predicts the ice, but is accurate for the regions of melt. 2014 is a stunning correlation. 2015? This too is not good.

Credit for this goes to Nightvid Cole.

Verg

6
The rest / Guns!
« on: June 02, 2015, 02:08:06 PM »
The NRA has been preaching that having a gun makes you safe.........But, 35 American armed cops die from a gunshot wound for every unarmed British cop that dies from a gunshot wound..........Those statistics are from before 1997 when handguns were made illegal in Britain.......From 1900 to 1997, 55 British cops were shot to death, in the same time frame 9515 U.S. cops were shot to death. Do the math. Here are their names....

https://www.odmp.org/search?name&agency&state&from=1900&to=1997&cause=Gunfire&filter=nok9
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_British_police_officers_killed_in_the_line_of_duty

Guns make you safe!.......More guns make you safer!......Buy guns today!

7
Antarctica / Larsen "B" will be gone in a decade: NASA
« on: May 15, 2015, 01:35:55 AM »
Quote
A new NASA study finds the last remaining section of Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf, which partially collapsed in 2002, is quickly weakening and likely to disintegrate completely before the end of the decade.

A team led by Ala Khazendar of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, found the remnant of the Larsen B Ice Shelf is flowing faster, becoming increasingly fragmented and developing large cracks. Two of its tributary glaciers also are flowing faster and thinning rapidly.

"These are warning signs that the remnant is disintegrating," Khazendar said. "Although it’s fascinating scientifically to have a front-row seat to watch the ice shelf becoming unstable and breaking up, it’s bad news for our planet. This ice shelf has existed for at least 10,000 years, and soon it will be gone."

http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-study-shows-antarctica-s-larsen-b-ice-shelf-nearing-its-final-act

8
Arctic sea ice / The north pole cams are on line
« on: May 01, 2015, 08:00:38 PM »



 ;D

Neven,

Your ASIG image links need to be updated.

Verg

9
The rest / John Boehner, R-Ohio
« on: October 01, 2013, 09:52:18 AM »
John Boehner

Quote
Before you leave the house of representatives, could you please come up and collect you checks from the tobacco lobby?

Quote
BP wants to thank you all for your support, please come up and get your check.

Quote
Coka-Cola wants to give you a token of their esteam. Please come up and collect your Coka-Cola check before you leave the United States house of representatives

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Boehner

10
Consequences / Excuses
« on: September 10, 2013, 01:36:39 PM »
The arctic ice numbers give people excuses. What would it take to get their attention, I mean what would it take to get your uncle John to give up his cigar? An earthquake? A volcano? Maybe another tsunami or how about a nuclear war? What would it take? To get the brain-fart idiots to actually do something?

Vergent

Okay "fart" is a strong term, but the founding father Ben Franklin wrote a book "Fart proudly" So this is within the cultural norm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fart_Proudly

Vergent

11
Arctic sea ice / The good news and the bad news about z
« on: September 09, 2013, 11:07:59 PM »
We have many real time tools to keep track of the x and the y of Arctic ice(JAXA, CT, MASIE, NSIDC, etc.). Here to fore, we have had no real time observation based thickness product. The good news is that this is no longer the case. TOPAZ4 V2 thickness has been forced by observation since June. Every Monday the daily thickness map makes jumps in areas where data has been acquired. By now, the entire ice area is tied to observational data no more than a few weeks old. How do they do it? So what is TOPAZ4?

Quote
The operational TOPAZ4 Arctic Ocean system uses the HYCOM model and a 100-member EnKF assimilation scheme. It is run daily to provide 10 days of forecast (one single member) of the 3D physical ocean, including sea ice; data assimilation is performed weekly to provide 7 days of analysis (ensemble average).

EnKF, or Ensemble Kalman filter, is a statistical filter to harvest data and variance from an ensemble of inputs.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0493%281998%29126%3C1719%3AASITEK%3E2.0.CO%3B2

How do I know they are measuring thickness. First because they say so. Topaz is tied to an ansemble of five altimeters(five times the data of CRYOSAT2).

http://www.myocean.eu/web/45-sea-ice.php

And second because of the animation weekly jumps in thickness(on Mondays), corresponding to weekly import of data. A GODIVA2 portal where you can do animations is at the following link;

http://thredds.met.no/thredds/godiva2/godiva2.html?server=http://thredds.met.no/thredds/wms/topaz/dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be#

Well, how accurate is it? I do not know, they have not published a validation paper yet, but now that August PIOMAS is out, we can compare. PIOMAS average thickness for August was 1.34m, so if we take away all the mid August ice 1.34m or thinner , How much ice disappears?




I tried 1.44m and 1.24m, in the former significantly more than half disappeared, much less than half disappeared in the latter. So, there is probably less than 10cm difference between them in median thickness.

Okay, what is the bad news? Over on the blog no one seemed alarmed by the PIOMAS numbers, everyone seemed to think that 3013 has some aspect of bounce back or recovery.





What is happening to the thickness/volume of ice in the western CAB along Greenland and in the CAA? It has lost about 1.5m of thickness since 2011, mostly this year. It is now too thin to thicken by plastic distortion from lateral pressure, it will form pressure ridges, but the ice cap probably will not thicken past the equilibrium point. The CAB losses should continue next year. There is not much left to lose.

Vergent



13
Consequences / Lessons from hurricane Sandy
« on: August 30, 2013, 02:38:17 AM »
Hurricane season is upon us and I feel compelled to raise the topic that got me banned from American Weather. The New York times published the names and cause of death for the people who died in hurricane Sandy. Some are squemish about death, if that is you, this article is not for you.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/17/nyregion/hurricane-sandy-map.html?_r=0

In reading the list it became apparent that many, if not most, of these deaths were avoidable.  At any rate here is a list of ways to avoid being killed by a hurricane.

  • Heed evacuation orders. Board up your house if there is time. Turn off the gas and electricity. Get out of town. It's a good time for a road trip.
  • If your basement is being flooded, do not go down there for any reason. It is a death trap. As the water rises, the inrush accelerates making it impossible to get out.
  • The height of a storm is not a good time to go for a walk or a drive. This is particularly true on tree lined streets.
  • If you are elderly or in ill health and it will be cold, and can't get out of town, get to an evacuation shelter even if you are not in a mandatory evacuation zone. the shelter will have heat, and food. No one died in an evacuation shelter.
  • If there is a large tree close enough to endanger your house in a storm, have it removed. If you can't bring your self to part with it, have it pruned to reduce wind force and overhanging branches removed. Do not wait for storm warnings to do this.
  • Internal combustion engines, coal, and charcoal all make deadly carbon monoxide gas. Using them indoors is sure death.
  • Damaged and fallen trees have deadly stored energy, clearing them is a job for professionals. Lumberjacks call them widow-makers, even experienced professionals can be killed by them. A chain saw does not a lumberjack make.-Yoda
  • If you are dependent on oxygen, have a weeks supply of oxygen cylinders on hand at all times. Power outages are not always announced beforehand.
  • Stock up on battery camping lanterns and batteries(my suggestion is a LED headlight thy stay lit for up to 50 hrs on a pair of AAs)rather than candles and kerosene lamps, they are much safer.
  • Everyone who lives where there are cold winters should have a backup plan for heating their home should there be a power outage. A modern version of the Franklin stove is a good choice. Have the lumberjack you have cutting down that dangerous tree cut and split it for firewood. They will do this for a reasonable charge.
  • Learn first aid and CPR. Most YMCAs have courses. Or just buy a boy scouts first aid manual and read it. It may be your own life you save.
  • In a disaster it is everyone number one job to keep themselves safe. The second job is to keep the ones around them safe. A store clerk telling a customer that he needs a long extension cord because the generator must be run outside, could be saving a whole family by doing so. If you do it, you will never know, but if you do not do it, you may have a whole lifetime to regret that.

At any rate the topic is how to keep yourself safe in a disaster. Any thoughts?

Vergent




14
Arctic sea ice / The Canary in the Coal Mine
« on: August 23, 2013, 06:16:50 PM »


With its 30% definition of "extent" DMI extent is the canary in the coal mine with respect to the popping of the extent balloon. Assuming this is not another glitch, vast areas are dropping below 30% and we will soon be below 2009 & 10 on DMI. The NSIDC, MASIE, and JAXA will follow. 30% ice does not survive the fall storms.

Vergent

15
The rest / We now can read minds; literally!
« on: August 21, 2013, 05:43:40 PM »
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130819141641.htm

I wonder what the NSA will do with this.

Vergent

16
Arctic sea ice / It's official; We now have an ice map of Panama.
« on: August 17, 2013, 07:39:18 PM »


All be it a lopsided one.

Vergent

17
The forum / 500 members
« on: August 17, 2013, 05:13:13 PM »
Congratulations all, we now have 500 members; 0.000007% of planet Earth.

Vergent

18
Arctic background / Icebreaker Oden
« on: August 16, 2013, 04:06:52 PM »


The Oden is heading to Svalbard to pick up scientists to do research in the Fram.

http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=133723&CultureCode=en

Vergent

20
Arctic sea ice / Sea Ice Thickness from CryoSat-2
« on: August 05, 2013, 02:37:05 AM »
Well, this came out almost a month ago, no one on this forum spotted it(including me). Well beter late than never.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.arcus.org%2Ffiles%2Fsearch%2Fsea-ice-outlook%2F2013%2F07%2Fpdf%2Fregional%2Fkaleschke_rickert.pdf&ei=M-f-UeyFGe_EiwLo6YCQBQ&usg=AFQjCNGFvdprpuMH8fHMx5gdnXGRlFT45A&sig2=n-eg6abRF_qLcBja2an58g

Here is a link to the pdf download.



2013



2012



2013-2012



Thickness distribution and mean thickness. It seems that PIOMAS failed to track the continued thickness and volume loss. Well, input starved models can go walkabout.

Quote
The trend of mean ice thickness is about -7 cm/yr.

-0.00007 km X 13,700,674 km^2 = -959 km^3

Vergent

23
Arctic sea ice / USCGC Healy
« on: July 12, 2013, 04:39:41 PM »
USCGC Healy is on the move. Any word on her mission?




24
Arctic sea ice / Melt Ponds!
« on: July 09, 2013, 05:57:14 PM »

25
Arctic sea ice / Predictions
« on: June 14, 2013, 12:43:10 AM »
This is a thread for posting specific predictions, along with supporting reasoning/evidence. If you or someone else makes a prediction in another thread copy it and post it here. Below I have quoted a prediction that I made earlier. This way it will be easier to keep track of predictions, so proper credit(or deserved raspberries) can be given.

Neven

I think this topic should be pinned.

Vergent

r04c04:



r03c04



The Eurasian side of the CAB. This is similar to how r05c03 looked June 25 a year ago.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2012177.terra.500m

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35176-the-pacific-side-of-the-arctic-ice-cap-has-desinigrated/

I started a topic about it at American weather. The topic was instalocked at the request of a denialist).

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2012227.terra.500m

Fifty days later r05c03 was open water. much of this was MYI.

The Eurasian side of the CAB is mostly FYI, it will be open ocean by Aug. 1.

Vergent

I'm sticking my neck out a mile with this one, these grids have never melted out. Last year was the worst.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012255.terra.1km

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c04.2012253.terra.1km

But here is what they looked like last June:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012171.terra.1km

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c04.2012164.terra.1km


For my money r04c04 and r03c04 this year look worse on 6/13, than r05c03 did in 2012 on 6/25.

As usual, I hope I am wrong.

Vergent

P.S. My daughter is graduating from UC Santa Cruz this weekend: Physical Anthropology


26
Policy and solutions / Lego economics
« on: June 07, 2013, 05:17:02 PM »

27
Arctic sea ice / Fram Export
« on: May 10, 2013, 09:52:12 PM »




I checked back to 2007. No year lost this much thick ice, to the Fram, at this time of year.

Vergent


29
http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2013-04/sewage-plants-dumped-11-billion-gallons-waste-waterways-after-sandy

That's 35 gallons for every USA person. I guess we Americans sh#t a lot. Nice graphic though.

Vergent

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