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Topics - Gray-Wolf

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Arctic sea ice / What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« on: January 11, 2017, 03:18:51 PM »
So what do folk expect to see this melt season? Once upon a time we were always told " it's too early to think about that!" but , after last summer followed by what we have seen this Autumn/winter, does that stand as true any more?

Can we , even before the sun's up, forecast a bad year for the ice?

I think we now can?

Even now we appear to be lurching toward another event that could make things worse for the upcoming melt season while areas of the Basin are still struggling with 're-Freeze'?.  How long before the Sun rises over Barrow again?

There can be no doubt that this re-freeze is worse than last years and where did last years re-freeze ( or lack of?) leave us? To me the corner has been turned and the Basin is now in its final decline with feedback now meaning that no real re-freeze ( compared to the old Arctic back in the 60's/70's?) can occur over a Basin actively controlling the Weather introduced over the Ocean entrances via WACCy forcings?

We may well have missed the subtle changes over Barentsz/Kara for the last 15 years but I feel they are ground zero for the introduction of the feedback that will ensure no pack will now face a summer knowing it will not have all melted out by late August. Even last year would have been in dangerous territory had one of the high solar months remained H.P. dominated? This winter will leave us an even thinner,warmer, weaker pack to face melt season so I'm confident in saying that, barring a VIE5 event or large impact event, we will see ice drop lower than last year? But that is no longer important to me! what is important is how much open water for how long.

This upcoming Full moon's tides may well prove disruptive to the pack prior to the arrival of a very nasty low over the Atlantic side of the basin. If the moon has shattered the pack then the low will tear it up even more with increased export from Fram, slabbing,beaching and compression giving open water and so late formed 'skim ice' to await the return of the Sun.

The hardest part of all of this is the weather over the basin over melt season?

We know it was the earliest possible return of the 07' type 'perfect melt storm' but surely that 'pattern ' no longer exists amid all the changes we have been seeing?

That said High pressure has saved the UK from its yearly winter flooding ( so far!) as low solar promotes High Pressure dominance. What if this high pressure dominance just eases north with the polar Jet as spring/Summer arrives around the northern hemisphere?


 

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Antarctica / Stupid Questions
« on: December 05, 2016, 12:48:43 PM »
With the startling drop in sea ice around Antarctica we might need a thread like this as more and more folk take an interest?

So , for starters;

Will the loss of the Larsen's impact the ice cover in Weddell over the years to come? I ask as I could see Ronne suffering if facing open water and swells from storms. I can see the Ross end of the channel ( that makes West Antarctica an Island at our Temp/GHG forcings?) opening up but found it harder to see similar happening in Weddell due to the perennial ice there?

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Consequences / Dementia and car pollution
« on: November 14, 2016, 04:20:21 PM »
In the UK we had our 'cause of Death' stats released today and Dementia now tops the list ( taking over from heart disease).

Studies have shown magnetite nano particles in the brains of folk suffering/dying from Alzheimer's and both the engines and brakes of vehicles produce Magnetite nano particles.

We also are seeing an uptick in early onset Alzheimer's. Are the two things linked?

I was born in the early 60's and , along with the rest, we played out on the streets where we lived. Only occasionally were our 'football matches' interrupted by a car coming along. I visited that street a few years back ( showing my son where I grew up) and each side of the road was parked up solid and every front garden given over to parking.

So I'm thinking that anyone born after 1980 has lived immersed in the age of the automobile ( where most homes had at least 1 car?) and so has been taking up magnetite from cars/trucks/vans/busses all their lives? Could this point to why we see an uptick in early onset Alzheimer's with those 'prone' to suffering having their chances augmented by added magnetite in their brains from automobile pollution?

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Antarctica / Has increased Sea ice Around Antarctica started to decline?
« on: October 11, 2016, 01:43:38 PM »
I'm sure we've all mused as to why Sea ice area/extent, around the winter Antarctic, was apparently increasing since the 80's and many of us will have been satisfied with the compilation of mechanisms our Experts point to as having impact on the increases but have some of these 'forcings' now ended/reversed?

I have been wondering, over the past 3 years, as to whether or not we would begin to see a collapse in extent as both the Ozone hole showed signs of self repair and we saw the flip of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation/Flip positive of the PDO. This year's early max ( was this itself breakup/float off at seasons end?) drops the max extent back into the pack of previous years max extents so ought we to expect this trend to continue?

I suspect we all knew that there would be a 'maximum' extent that we could see under the current forcings and I feel this occurred back in 2012 ( or so) as the expansion of sea ice met with Southern Ocean workings limiting such growth. If some of these forcings are now reversed/falling away we might need to prepare ourselves for a rapid collapse back to 1970's ice levels come maximum?

The only 'upside' will be the fun we can have at the Denier's expense as they struggle to explain why this is happening after years of it being their 'Squirrel' of choice? :)


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Arctic sea ice / Return of the Perfect Melt Storm synoptic
« on: August 01, 2016, 03:15:46 PM »
In 2007 we saw ice extent/area take a dramatic fall to levels that took folk by surprise. The 'weather' over that melt season provided near perfect conditions to shed ice cover ( high in-situ melt and high export).

In the months following that min we were told that such an event comes around every 10 to 20 years with the two prior to 07' showing the 10 year spacing.

Should the next one respect the 10 year spacing then next Year would bring us the return of that phenomena.

What do folk think about both its return and its impacts should it return?

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Consequences / Why Survive? Reasons to be cheerful............
« on: August 13, 2013, 03:32:29 PM »
Just been wading through some of the Topics and I'm a bit saddened that even Neven needs to ask 'Why bother' so hows about a nice thread as to why those able should be doing their damnedest to prepare to survive anything that our climate shift may throw their way?

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Science / Comet Ison, methane, noctilucents and Strat temps?
« on: June 25, 2013, 12:59:56 PM »
Whilst looking forward to the show this Nov/december I became aware of the Jan 12th event ( and week following) where we pass through the dust stream left by the Comet as it passes.

We are told that this 'debris' is too small to give us a traditional meteor shower but that the 'dust' will act as condensation nucliei in the upper strat leading to possible noctilucent displays for many months ( right into the normal 'season' for them?)

I then began to mull what impacts this 'dust' may bring with it to the global environment. I know the debate on trop clouds appears to be leaning toward them re-inforcing warming by trapping more heat but would the same apply to an unusual concentration of noctilucent clouds?

Current research also puts 'methane' in the frame for introducing water vapour into the upper strat ( oxidation of the CH4 leadingto H2O) and so we might be currently 'seeding' the strat with our increases in methane?

 I have no idea of how long it takes for a methane molecule to rise from ground level to the upper atmosphere  and so do not know whether a 'summer season' of methane production is presented in the Stratosphere over the following winter?

Current temps over Alaksa and Siberia would suggest that we will show a 'peak' in methane production over the permafrost/wetlands there? Could this be preparing the Strat for Isons cargo of dust on Jan 12th?

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We have all been captivated by the scale , and speed, of events in the basin over the past few weeks and so I thought that maybe we needed a dedicated thread to discuss the matter?

I am sure that this event will have important impacts on ice levels come melt season but how do you guys see things playing out? Both in terms of how far will this event run ( will it impact the whole basin?) and then what will the fracturing mean once melt season comences proper?

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Consequences / Abrupt Warming Event
« on: February 26, 2013, 07:22:33 PM »
After looking at the albedo impacts since 07', and the prospect of this years Greenland Albedo collapse, I have to wonder if we should be looking at an abrupt period climate warming?

I know that past Warming events have involved the waning of vast ice sheets but surely any drop in albedo will bring about a similar chain of self reinforcing events?

So what do you guys think?

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