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Messages - Archimid

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1
Science / Re: Earthquakes and climate change
« on: January 18, 2018, 06:10:09 PM »
Nice abstract and to me it makes sense.

  I imagine that when the Earth first captured the moon, it caused unimaginable earthquakes. Overtime the tug of the moon probably reshaped the Earth. The Earth movements were very fast at first, but slowed down overtime as the gravitational forces met limits imposed by the composition and shape of the planet and the orbit of the moon. Overtime that change reached the sort of equillibrium that we experience in our time frame.

 I believe it is perfectly posible, even likely,  that at some point in the future some tipping point is reached that changes the equillibrium of the moon and Earth and the phases of the moon do become correlated with Earthquakes. However, that may be hundreds of millions of years into the future if at all.

2
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: January 12, 2018, 10:54:44 PM »
Hopefully  one day that brine can be separated into usefull components and sold, making the economics of desal competitive.

3
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 12, 2018, 03:36:29 AM »
85% approval rating huh. I feel sorry for that “15%”, but I admire their courage for publicly disapproving.

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 10, 2018, 04:07:59 AM »
Numerobis, Solar Roof installations include batteries. I don’t think the number cited by the article includes batteries.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 10, 2018, 04:00:44 AM »
And it works as a mobile generator, judging by the guy powering a circular saw with his truck. I like that truck.

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 07, 2018, 02:12:35 PM »
I'm also not at all convinced of the forecast of population collapse through famine etc. Any event so drastic as to kill tens of millions of people will also lead to more births surely after, as people have more kids when and after times are unstable.

I think climate events that could kill tens of millions of first world people are still decades away, unless there is a rapid collapse of the Arctic or other climate weak points. However climate events that kill tens of millions are not necesary for societal collapse. If years like the last three become the new normal, war is soon to follow.  That could undo modern society faster than any other natural event short of a meteor strike. Remember that he who must not be named on this thread has the biggest button.

Climate change is just starting. I'm hoping the changes we are seeing slow down  for the next few years and we get at least 5 years of a climate stability similar to that of the 20th century.  I think that would be sufficient time to recover, rebuild and prepare for the next wave of extremes.

However I don't like our odds. As the globe warms and ice disappears for the rest of our lifetimes, extreme climate events become more likely. That means less time  and space for recovery.

Recovery is key. During the holocene many extreme climate events happened, but they were suficiently separated from each other in both time and space that human society had time to recover, and oportunity to grow.  I think the increase in birth rates and economic growth that can be observed after many catastrophes happen only if the climate allows it. Growth is the default human behaviour, like all life.

While it is true that modern society has a great capacity for sucessful adaptation, planetary climate change is something new.  Not new to the planet, not even new to humans, but new to modern society. New problems might not have easy solutions or solutions at all.

Even if the problems of adaptation can be solved economicaly and without decreasing the birth rate, adapting has a cost. Using human tools we can reduce the cost and maximize gains if adaptation but there is always a cost.

Even if we had the will to face climate change with human tools (knowledge, science, engineering) there will be losses during the process of adaptation, but given the fact that humanity have decided to face climate change like animals, ignoring the long term danger, there is likely to be significant losses. After each one there is a posibility of war and collapse.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 06, 2018, 02:37:29 AM »
Iron fertilization of the ocean is as natural as whale poop

And if you have a 1 million (billion?) times increase in whale poop the disruption it causes to the environment could generate more climate change than global warming. Like the old adage says, the difference between medicine and poison is the dosage.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 05, 2018, 06:33:04 PM »
Reducing net greenhouse gas production per capita

I think it is too late for this to work as a climate change deterrent. While it is an absolute priority that we do this, even if we bring down human emissions to manageable levels in the next 10 year, there is a whole lot of hurt coming our way. We might have changed the earth too much already. Reducing emissions is about helping the next generations. For our generation it is too late.

Reducing population growth

I think this will happen without any human guidance. Droughts, fires, heatwaves, storms, and other climate disruptions will lead to political instability, famine, mass migration and war. I think overpopulation is a problem solved by climate change.


Adapting to changing temperatures and conditions

I think this will will happen whether we want to or not. Some will adapt to the new climate, many won’t. It is not a choice. We will either adapt or fail to adapt. Sure, preparing for climate change might increase the chance of successful adaptation, but it is by no means certain.
 
Geoengineering and other solutions

We are already geoengineering the planet ina scale that no geoengineering effort can match. we are changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere and the oceans, we are changing the surface of the planet and we have dramatically changed the Earth’s ecosystems. We are making those changes assuming that the the Earth is infinite and eternal. The illusion that a habitable Earth is here for us is strong. We have given no thought about the consequences of our geoengineering.


Unintentional geoengineering got us to this point. Intentional, well planned and carefully executed geongineering might gets  us out. However I don’t think it will happen until it is too late for many. As Climate change becomes increasingly obvious, resistance to geoengineering won’t make sense (imminent destruction will see to that) and governments of the world will be much more willing to risk and finance planned geoengineering.  Geoengineering will be done not as a preventive measure but as a Hail Mary.


9
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: January 01, 2018, 01:44:07 PM »
Puerto Rico, and the handling of the hurricane is without a doubt a disaster of epic proportions. Could it also offer us a glimpse of life without the grid?

I think so. It is also a very good example of the vulnerability of fossil fuel supply lines.
I live on the 16th floor of a 17 floor building. When the elevator ceases to elevate, water isn't pumped this high, and the refrigerator needs to be tossed, most of my building becomes uninhabitable. How did people in my circumstances survive in Puerto Rico?

Frankly, I don't how they did it, but I'm sure it wasn't pretty.
 
 I imagine the first choice for someone living in a high rise without power is to flee, but that is not an option for everyone.Anyone that stays must be prepared to do a lot of extra work, Just carrying all their water is going to be difficult. On top of that living in the dark, in rooms that are too hot, without a refrigerator, without propper hygiene must be miserable.

My city is surrounded by old order Amish and Mennonite farmers. Will their crops and stores be respected when the power goes out? Do the farmers and merchants hoard their food, or find some method of sharing? How was this problem dealt with in Puerto Rico?

I guess that is a local problem. Here the big things were generator theft and carjackings. I know that looting was also a thing at the begining of the emergency  Farmers and merchants didn't stop selling their goods, on the contrary, they tried to sell whatever remained from their crops, even if they didnt have power.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 28, 2017, 03:05:21 PM »
I think they are right in that there is no mass market  for vehicles that happen to be electric. There is not enough people that will buy a car just because they are electric. The opposite is also true. There is not enough people that will buy a vehicle just because they are ICEV.

Most people buy whatever meets their needs. I think most people weights factors like cost, performance, safety, handling, luxuries, and anything else they can imagine and purchase whatever they like. There is a huge market for good vehicles regardless of how the motors get their power.

EVs can compete and in some cases significantly outperform ICEVs. The most obvious example is instant torque. Tesla took advantage of the instant torque that electric motors provide to create cars that outperform almost anything on the road. The physics of the ICE simply can't create instant torque. In that segment of the market ICEs can't compete with EVs.

There are other ways where EV's have an advantage. Placing the batteries under the car lowers the center of gravity of the car provides a handling advantage. Regenerative breaking, instant available energy, simplicity of design are other categories that if exploited can provide large markets for for vehicles that happen to be electric.

As battery and other related technologies improve, cost becomes an advantage instead of a disadvantage. Eventually ICE's won't be competitive against EV's except on niche markets, for example the few people that must have engine noise even if the EV performs better than the ICEV.

11
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 17, 2017, 06:51:36 PM »
It seems that this year worst case scenarios have come true more often than usual. I'm very glad to hear that this wasn't one of those. Stay safe.

12
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: December 17, 2017, 03:38:33 PM »
Delayed and Without Resources: Puerto Rico’s Police Did Little to Investigate Missing Persons After Hurricane María

http://www.latinorebels.com/2017/12/17/delayed-and-without-resources-puerto-ricos-police-did-little-to-investigate-missing-persons-after-hurricane-maria/

45 still missing and the Secretary of public safety still claims there is no reason to investigate. The legislation presented to investigate the number of deaths and disappeared was defeated.

I thank the federal government and Trump for killing PR with new taxes. We deserve it.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 17, 2017, 03:10:03 PM »
The only way I can see for upgrading ICEV to EV in a massive scale is by automating the process. A mostly robotic assembly line is needed to remove unnecesary components, perform all necessary modifications to the vehicle,  install batteries, motors, regenerative breaking systems ect.

 To me, that seems possible with current technology but the economics are not there (if you ignore climate change). Too much uncertainty at too high a cost.

But who knows, maybe with advances in robotics, manufacturing and recycling the task of upgrading an ICE to an EV can become economical.

Some examples I like of EV conversions

The Zombie 222. An EV 1968 Mustang.


Then on the other end of the spectrum

An electric VW Samba by Jehu Garcia.
Electric Samba Series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2l32K1w0jp-m04Jl-3PHmtapevOuCeIp

Jehu's channel is fantastic for anyone interested in DIY EV or battery power in general.


14
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: December 16, 2017, 03:28:48 AM »
The most interesting reason I've heard for the delay is that there are no materials. There are no poles, no cables and many other of the many components of an electric grid. Crews are scavenging for materials among the wreckage.

I can think of many reasons  for the shortages.

1. Harvey, Irma, floods and fires are straining US supplies.
2. Low supply to begin with. Irma took a good chunk and the bankrupt monopoly was stream lining supply chains.
3. Horrible beurocracy that is slowing down the supply chain.


15
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: December 13, 2017, 12:13:56 AM »
I have a gas stove for cooking, with 2 100 pounds tanks. That usually lasts about a year. Luckily I had no need to boil water. in case I did, at the beginning of the emergency I prepared a fire pit with cinder blocks. With all the branches and trees laying around I could probably boil water for a year. I still have thousands of pounds of wood. I wish I had a good use for it.

On generators. I have a small 2000W generator. That’s enough to run the refrigerator, a fan and lights for 7 hours on a gallon of gasoline. The good thing about such a small generator isn’t that when there was no gasoline available I could depend on my fuel supplies for several days. Also, about 2 gallons a day is relatively affordable in the long term. The bad thing is that it couldn’t run the water pump, which saves a lot of water, but it is a lot of extra work.

I learned a lot from the experience. Generators are a necessity but relying on them is not smart. They simply have too many moving parts requiring constant maintenance. They are also totally useless if there is no fuel available.

I think a very diverse setup might work well. A relatively large battery (a few KWh) with a decent sized solar array should power the refrigerator and larger loads during  daytime, leaving enough juice in the batteries for a few hours for night time. A generator should be used to charge the batteries on cloudy days. Solar should be used to warm water. For cooking fire wood or gas do nicely. Ideally, smaller batteries should be used in all powered tools and electronics providing additional storage capacity.

16
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: December 10, 2017, 02:18:41 AM »
78 days without power. Having the power back is almost as shocking as when Maria took it away it. I still find myself walking into dark rooms instead of just flipping the switch. The refrigerator feels very cold and the ice maker is working.  It’s glorious.

Water service is spotty, but I’m getting enough to refill my reserves every night. The pump is now doing all the work I was doing. There was so much laundry to do.

My generator failled on day 73. I shouldn’t have pushed my with the electric chainsaw.

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: December 07, 2017, 08:53:46 PM »
some comments on Terry’s article:

…there is very little food, no fresh water, 97% are still without power, limited cell signals have stymied communications, and hospitals are struggling to keep people alive. There is no 911. Help is not on the way. If you have no cash, you can’t buy anything. As people get more desperate, violence increases

I could not have said it better myself.

chaos has begun. The mosquitos have multiplied like the plague. Dead livestock are all over the island including in whatever fresh water supplies they have.

I don’t know about livestock on all water supplies, but definitely many dead birds everywhere and thousands of livestock dead. However as far as I know a good portion of it was properly(but hastily) buried.

My family has been robbed and have lost whatever little they had left. The gang members are robbing people at gunpoint and the island is in desperation. People are shooting each other at gas stations to get fuel.

I fully expect that situations similar to that happened, probably more than once, but that was not my experience. I stood in three gas lines, a bank line, and many water  and food lines(at the supermarket) and never felt threatened. I doubt the what the author describes in that paragraph was the experience of most, but I’m sure it happened. Crime was rampant for sure. I saw things that I dare not say.

They’re telling us to rescue them and get them out of the island because they are scared for their lives

I don’t believe that for a second



To Terry

The very low death count might be connected to the fact that the families of those who lost members to the storm are eligible to receive federal assistance.

I don’t think so. I think a variety of factors caused the wrong low death count.

1. The protocol was so burocratic and restrictive that it couldn’t cope with the chaos.

2. Personel  was poorly trained resulting in massive break of the protocol when communications break down forced them to act independent from the chain of command.

3. Completely paralyzing fear of lawsuits by health care providers

4. Completely unqualified and negligent Public Safety Secretary combined with the chief disaster manager literally going on “vacation” in the middle of the emergency. More experienced and compassionate people would have looked at the jump in the mortality data and recognize there was something way off with their protocols. They should have used the mortality data to guide their response instead of going with an obviously flawed protocol.

I don’t think that in the beginning there was intention to deceive at all, even as the secretary of public safety was making fun of allegations of higher death counts. He was making fun of the allegations because he had 100% confidence in the protocols. He was inexperienced and detached enough to completely underestimate the magnitude of the disaster.

18
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: December 06, 2017, 02:51:35 AM »
Magnamentis. IMHO it's mostly due to 2 factors:

1. Thermodynamics. The human body is simply much less efficient at higher temperatures. Less work can be done and more water is needed. Less work translates into less goods and services created for the same energy spent.

2. Winter. This one is two fold. First society must prepare for winter or die. That entails planning and saving. Those two are key to monetary sucess. Second, during winter people tend to stay inside, were it's warm. This leads to time to read, plan, think and cultivate the mind.

I'm sure that there are many other factors, but I believe those are the most influential. At least they were the most influential but modern technologies like climate control and modern workforce may somewhat reduce the effects.


19
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 04, 2017, 02:17:19 AM »
5-10 MW of abandoned hydro power just powered up a whole town in Puerto Rico.

https://www.telemundopr.com/noticias/Energizan-parte-de-Jayuya-con-energia-renovable-lago-dos-bocas-aee-461700773.html

Translated by google
The auxiliary operator of the Electric Power Authority, Jorge Bracero announced today the energization of parts of Jayuya thanks to the hydroelectric power station of Lago Dos Bocas in Utuado.
The plant, built in the early 1940s, has a capacity of 5 to 10 megawatts "completely clean," Bracero explained on his Facebook page. Click here to watch the video.

He also assured that it is "renewable by the natural flow of water".
The Dos Bocas hydroelectric plant is one of the 21 plants built in the 20th century, under the Fluvial Sources Authority, now known as the AEE.

20
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: December 01, 2017, 10:35:47 PM »
One quick correction. I don't blame Trump because no government could have defeated the gross incompetence of the Puertorican government. However I still think there was a pay for play with the Whitefish contract. We played at first, thats when the feds started to pour help but then the contract was canceled. That lead to resistance. Maybe time will tell if my conspiracy theory is right.

21
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 30, 2017, 11:32:41 PM »
BTW thanks Neven. Yes the government of PR is terrible, but there are people that need help.

22
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 30, 2017, 07:29:21 PM »
Alexander555 I wouldn't say PR has been extracting wealth. I like to say the US  "imposed prosperity" on PR. For a bit over 50 years PR has become completely dependant on the US. There was no need to evolve good governance, because the US always bail us out. Gross inefficiencies that would have destroyed independent natios were covered up by debt and federal money.

The debt is unpayable under the status quo. The problem took years to develop into the giant mess it is now. The US has been doind exactly the same thing. Growing deficits and magically expecting growth to erase them.

I don't blame Trump for the current mess in PR. This is mostly local government corruption and incompetence. As I said before, fake government.

Trump however is driving the US to catastrophe in many fronts. Blowing up PR  for short term profit is just one more shortsighted decision.

23
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 30, 2017, 03:13:11 AM »
President Troll was clear about this. America first. To him Puerto Rico is not america. We don't even speak "American". Puerto Rico is a colony. What good is a colony if you are not extracting wealth?

He will squeeze every penny he can for short term profit. But that's only If the law passes. If it does, it won't be as bad as Maria and the Puerto Rican government, but it will certainly hurt. I'm more worried about the US after President Troll is done with it.

24
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 29, 2017, 11:08:49 PM »
Tor thanks very much for your donation. I regret that they took so long in getting back to you. If you already sent them a donation thats great. I'm sure you will be helping children. If you haven't I've been thinking of other worthy causes.

Casa pueblo is another organization that will probably use your money for good. For years they have been promoting sustainability in PR and during the emergency they delivered solar light bulbs, solar panels and water filters to many communities. I think they have more accessible donation infrastructure.

http://casapueblo.org/index.php/calendario/

Another good cause is Dr Vargas Vidot charity " Iniciativa comunitaria". This man is a medical doctor who dedicates his spare time roaming the streets treating, feeding and just taking care of homeless people. He has been doing that for years. In 2016 he decided to run for a senate seat. He didn't campaign, he didn't ask for money yet he was elected with the highest number of votes. He gave me hope for my country. After his elections he doubled his efforts with the homeless. In my book he is a saint.

http://www.iniciativacomunitaria.org

25
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 29, 2017, 06:27:09 PM »
What A-Team said fits my expectations.

From google translate:
Residents of Summit Hills in Río Piedras again denounce that brigades from the United States are waiting today for the Electric Power Authority to start working. | They have been going to the place for days and have not been able to work because, according to the neighbors, they do not have access to the substation.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155245997377921&id=61186232920

Hopefully  you can see that video. Basically the American brigades waiting on PREPA's beurocracy. If I didn't know how bad beurocracy can be, I would assign it to malice from local managers.

On a personal note, today is the fifth day without running water. No power yet. Generator working 16 hours a day for 70 days but it is still working. Doing the work usually reserved for water pumps is good excersice.

Pro Tip: leaving your waterhose out in the sun will net you 2 gallons of warm water. That's a very generous shower.

26
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: November 27, 2017, 10:17:55 PM »
Probably funded by a lobby like the guys that grow these palm trees to produce palm oil. What els can you say after you wiped out already so many, and you know it's only going to get worse. Than you say "ohh , it's not that bad"
.

Not necessarily if their motive was profit, then climate change prevention would be a priority. the argument is backwards. Capitalists should be spending every resource available to preserve the current climate. it will make most of them lose everything. OTOH environmentalists should be rooting for no action and letting nature take its course. it will wipe out the modern humanity and it’s dominance over the world. In a few thousand years biodiversity will be back to normal levels.

Nah. Profits is not the reason, although I’m sure they very much believe that. ignorance induced fear and fear induced ignorance is the only reason they wear blinders.

27
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: November 27, 2017, 08:23:55 PM »
But both the planet and humanity can probably survive or even thrive in a world with fewer species. We don’t depend on polar bears for our survival, and even if their eradication has a domino effect that eventually affects us, we will find a way to adapt.

Trivially true. If 99.9% of humanity was wiped out there still be 7,000,000 people and  you can accurately say humans adapted to climate change. Even without taking it to the extreme, "we" does not include the people that do depend on Polar bears. Sure it is a small minority but you can say the same thing about many extinctions. They all affect small parts of humanity. This aggregation of harm is ignored in the argument. To assume that the agreggation of failures to adapt will not have consequences is foolish.

Through the whole article the author uses adaptation and evolution as invisible process. Successful adaptation is usually costly . Unsuccessful adaptation is deadly. That's the part of natural selection that the author completely ignores.

He writes as if he he is conviced that he will sucesfully adapt. Poor fool. He wholeheartedly believes that his current position of strength wil give him the evolutionary advantage needed to  sucesfully adapt.

28
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: November 27, 2017, 08:03:00 PM »
Conserving a species we have helped to kill off, but on which we are not directly dependent, serves to discharge our own guilt, but little else.”

This absolute foolishness. For all we know our fate was sealed when the Dodo went extinct.  With every change we make we move towards a different state of the world. We should be extremely careful of what we break because we could be dependent on it.

29
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: November 27, 2017, 07:25:14 PM »
"we are a part of the biosphere just like every other creature, and our actions are just as volitional, their consequences just as natural.

This is only marginally true. Yes we are part of nature and everything we do is natural but because of our mastery of energy we can create disruption on the scale of supervolcanos and metorite strikes. We are natural biological entities with with the disruptive power of massive geological entities.

More to follow:

30
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 21, 2017, 12:46:36 AM »
I want to add, I don't think there is a conspiracy from the government to hide the number of deaths. I wish. If that was the case at least decision makers in the know would have taken better decisions.It was nothing but negligence, amplified by naive decision makers. Fake governance.

31
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 21, 2017, 12:13:58 AM »

We surveyed 112 Puerto Rican funeral homes to check the accuracy of the hurricane death toll. This is what we found.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/20/health/hurricane-maria-uncounted-deaths-invs/index.html

Not only did they not count them, the Secretary of public safety made fun of allegations of higher death counts. He seemed 100% confident in the protocols even when the data screams otherwise.  This is why the Comfort was empty. There was no hurry because the death count seemed to be under control.

I really hope they release october numbers, but I doubt they will. It is likely the numbers are still running high.

32
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 19, 2017, 04:16:29 PM »
On the number of casualties: The government just announce new legislation so that protocols are in place to count indirect deaths. That number 55 only includes direct deaths and some seemingly random indirect deaths, like those who died of leptospirosis.

I'm more convinced than ever that the comfort was empty because officials weren't counting indirect deaths at all. This caused very bad decisions. Hopefully the new protocols avoid a repeat of this tragedy.

On power: when they say a percentage number with power they don't mean stable power at that level. Power outages for those who have power are almost a daily issue.

On Food: for some reason that escapes me, if you have food but need water you can't just get water. You must accept a box of food to go with the water.  I can't even imagine why. I gave the box of food to a family that lost everything.

By food I mean a box of junk food. But don't be too harsh on junkiness of the food. Without refrigeration, power or water people can't cook or preserve food.

On government: For state side emergencies there are clearly defined roles for Federal, state and local governments. In the case od Puerto Rico the state government completely folded and left the federal government to do tasks usually reserved for the locals.This slowed down everything.

33
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 08, 2017, 07:33:12 PM »
New stats being released that reinforce my suspicions:

From September 1-19, 2017, #PuertoRico averaged 82 deaths per day.
From September 20 (day #HurricaneMaria hit) to September 30, 2017, it averaged 117 per day.

 That is 35 more deaths per day on average.

September 2015: 2,242 registered deaths
September 2016: 2,366 registered deaths
September 2017: 2,838 registered death

October, 2015: 2,379 registered deaths
October 2016: 2,353 registered deaths
October 2017: 2,119 registered deaths (but these numbers will be changing bc PR gov't is taking 14 days to register deaths)

 Official numbers attributed to Maria:

20 direct deaths and 31 indirect deaths from Hurricane Maria, and the other 4 are from lepto, PR gov't says. #PuertoRico

From https://twitter.com/julito77/status/928310378425126913.

34
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 07, 2017, 12:21:55 AM »
I wonder that too. This is the best I have found:

https://twitter.com/julito77/status/925025350941335553

It is important to note that September and October numbers are not complete because systems were down.

Another important thing to remember is that hundreds of thousands of people left the island, including thousands of vulnerable people that were evacuated.

I think that given the chaos it was fully expected for information to be lost. I also undetstand why they cremated the bodies. Overflowing morgues could have quickly become a health hazard. What I don't understand is why they stand by their numbers with such confidence when their data is obviously crap. They didn't collect basic data points like age, how can they trust these numbers?

35
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 06, 2017, 05:42:56 PM »
This is grim but it must be known.  Using google translation

High number of "natural deaths"

Partial reports of the Police lack specific data of the deceased

The majority of the complaints do not cover the critical days during the passage of Hurricane Maria between September 19 and 21

The partial reports of the Police show that 894 complaints were issued for natural deaths, most of these weeks after Hurricane Maria, between October 1 and 23.

In turn, of the documents to which El VOCERO had access, it appears that eight of the deceased were between 100 and 105 years of age and 277 cases in which the years they had were not indicated. About 200 reported deaths occurred in homes for the elderly and another 200 in emergency rooms and hospitals.

They do not indicate whether there was electricity in the places where the deaths occurred and if the elderly depended on it to avoid aggravating their health conditions.


An examination of the complaints shows that in 72 of the cases, the deceased were not identified. Of those 19 are men and four women. The remaining 49 are not identified by sex, age or name.

The lack of information in the registry of the complaints prevents accurate numbers. In some cases, the date, age and residential address appear, but not the name. In other cases they are the deaths of young people on public roads.

Of the cases examined by gender, some 397 are women.

According to the partial statistics in San Juan, between September 21 and the first days of October, 127 complaints of natural deaths were issued, of which 32 were from people who lived in homes for the elderly and 29 in hospitals. Of the 127 deaths in that area, about 23 were people between the ages of 90 and 99; another 30 between 80 to 89 years, and 12 between 70 to 79 years.

While the police area of ​​Bayamón, partial reports between September 25 and October 23 total 68 cases of natural deaths, of which 11 occurred in homes for the elderly and 15 in emergency rooms and hospitals.

In one of the cases the person was over 100 years old. In another ten cases between 90 to 99 years of age; 18 of the cases between 80 to 89 years; 11 of the cases between 70 to 79 years and in six of the cases between 60 to 69 years.

On the other hand, in the area of ​​Ponce, which also includes Juana Díaz, Villalba, Santa Isabel, Peñuelas, Guayanilla, Yauco and Guánica, there were 75 complaints. It was indicated that 16 of the deaths in that area occurred in homes for the elderly and 14 in hospitals or emergency rooms.

In the Caguas area, which includes the municipalities of Cidra, Aguas Buenas, Gurabo, San Lorenzo and Juncos, the complaints amounted to 131.

In Mayagüez, 36 deaths were added, of which 21 were in homes for the elderly and 22 in hospitals and emergency rooms. Of the deceased 22 had ages between 90 to 99 years; 26 between 80 to 89 years and 23 between 70 to 79 years.


Utuado the most stripped

Other areas such as Utuado, Arecibo, Guayama and Humacao have the minimum information in their records, mainly age.

Guayama reported 21 deaths between September 30 and October 10, one of which occurred in a nursing home and three in hospitals. Five of the deaths are of people over 90 years old; four over 80 years old; five older than 70 and four older than 60.

The registration in Utuado adds 25 complaints. Five were in nursing homes and one in a hospital. Three are nameless and covers from September 2 to October 8. It does not add other known deaths directly related to Mary, such as that of three sisters who perished buried in an avalanche.

In the Carolina area with 105 complaints, it is established that 18 of the deaths occurred in hospitals and nine in care homes. One of the deceased was 105 years old; another 11 older than 90; 14 over 80 years old; 10 over 70 years old and 11 over 60 years old.


http://www.elvocero.com/ley-y-orden/alta-cifra-de-muertes-naturales/article_a97fe9bc-c28e-11e7-ab49-df6587f3e5a6.amp.html

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 05, 2017, 01:50:40 AM »
You might get a kick out of this.  Solar/battery powered community laundromat. Free for anyone to use, two loads per family. Batteries and panels donated by Sonnen and washing machines donated by  Whirpool.

 article in spanish.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/locales/nota/loizainauguraunalavanderiasolarcomunitaria-2371658/

37
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 04, 2017, 10:52:49 PM »
Best wishes with all of this Archimid, I imagine your life has been completely taken over with these day to day struggles.
Kind regards, Clare
Thanks.

The first few weeks was madness. Everywhere you looked there was destruction. It felt as if surviving was a way of life. We all lost weight except for my 2 year old. It wasn't for lack of calories, we had plenty of Spam, rice and pasta. It was merely the increased activity levels. Flushing toilets with buckets, bringing water for showers and doing dishes, hand washing clothes and clearing debris was all there was to do. Well, that and standing in line.

There were lines for fuel, food, filtered water, and cash. The fuel and cash lines were the worst. Remember, they were no communications, which means all transactions were cash only. Add to that no working ATMs and only one bank in my town and what you get are ten hour lines for cash.

Things have greatly improved since we got water. Having sporadic cellphone and internet  does wonders. It is great to know what's going on and that recovery is on the way.

38
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 04, 2017, 10:23:26 PM »
BTW word over social media is that the Comfort is leaving tomorrow at 0600 to re-supply.

39
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 04, 2017, 10:20:27 PM »
The reason given by the state Secretary of Health was that it was in stand-by mode to serve as back-up in case a hospital lost power and had to be evacuated. To me that is a horrible reason.

First, hospitals may have hundreds of patients. How in the world they can evacuate hundreds of patients in a timely manner to a ship? How many helicopters are needed for that? Wouldn't it be better to use hundreds of ambulances and evacuate them to nearby hospitals? It makes no sense.

I can see the circling the island as a good strategy if all hospitals and medical facilities could call the Comfort for med evac. Word in the news is that hospitals had no idea how to do that. Instead they were sending patients to Centro Medico. Centro Medico was the only facility sending patients to the Comfort and they were working on back up power and suffering blackouts.

It may be simple miscommunication. To this day cellphone coverage is spotty. It could also be a matter of keeping hospitals at 100% utilization for financial reasons. My bet is that some beaurocrat thought that because hospitals already send patients to Centro Medico, if Centro Medico send patients to the Comfort indirectly all hospitals are using the Comfort. Dumb, but fully expected.

40
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 03, 2017, 04:05:16 AM »
The official position was that the comfort was in stand-by mode encircling the island. I imagine that being randomly equidistant of any possible emergency med evac is an excelent tactical choice given the type of disaster and the fact it is an island.

 The problem was political, economical or communications.

 The word is many hospital were operating under emergency power.  At one point there was no diesel available. Many are still working with emergency backup and all are dealing with blackouts. Aguadilla's El Buen Samaritano Hospital lost power yesterday.

Still thats a heck of a lot better than a few weeks after the events. My hospital of preference (because of the view)  had to evacuate but they already repaired  it and have power.   Power has been restored to many hospitals.

The long term health effects on the population will be felt for a while.  Medical care ceased for a few weeks and it is now slowly building up again.

My gasoline generator is holding up but I've had some issues. I  had to repair the pull cord twice and once had to empty the tank because of water damaged gasoline. I'm changing the oil every 50 hrs even when the manual asks for 100 hours. The first choice oil is not available anywhere, but the second choice is also the most common one.

I'm really hoping it lasts until I get the power back.  I'm using it 16 hours a day,  at 6-8 hours per gallon. Generator theft is a big constant fear, but mine is very silent and I keep the lights at low levels.

The refrigerator is also acting up. It has been from the begining. I blame it on the constant and prolonged power interruptions. I'm hoping that also lasts a while longer.  I think high efficiency refrigerators are not made for this type of use.



41
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 29, 2017, 02:42:49 PM »
At last indeed. Centro Medico, the only non military hospital with the authority to transfer patients to the comfort, always works in emergency mode. Always. There is no doubt in my mind that the people that work there are the best at what they do because they are in perpetual trial by fire.

To people used to work under the worst conditions, operating patients using their phones for lights is not that much of a stretch.

The people would be better served  if any licensed MD could make referals, but opening the ship is a good start.

On a more personal note, 38 days later I have water service. Washing dishes has never been so much fun. Flushing toilets is a thrill.

42
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 27, 2017, 09:35:27 PM »
Puerto Rico Is Burning Its Dead, And We May Never Know How Many People The Hurricane Really Killed

https://www.buzzfeed.com/nidhiprakash/puerto-rico-cremations?utm_term=.gtq4ZjeBXB&bffbnews#.iiyvP2lapa

Communication between the central institute certifying official hurricane deaths, called the Institute of Forensic Sciences, and funeral homes or crematoriums appears to be fully broken, with each side waiting for the other to take action.

On better news

Decision seeks to enhance residents' access to medical services offered by the ship(comfort):

http://go.cb.pr/2y9rb5t

43
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 27, 2017, 01:45:10 AM »
I imagine most of the 2nd place, Georges and 5th place Hugo, also belong to Puerto Rico. So almost every decade we rebuild our grid.

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 25, 2017, 03:25:23 AM »
I just heard that the installation of the panels and batteries was done in one week. Tesla can provide almost all the power needed for the next 25 years in a week. Amazing.

45
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 24, 2017, 08:19:09 PM »
As an Earthling I already felt indebted to Elon. This is just too much for words to describe. In Elon we trust.

46
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 24, 2017, 06:30:57 PM »
Trump, Zinke, Whitefish, corruption of the worst kind. This is a pay for play scheme. People  will die, billions in economic productivity will be lost but Trump managed to get his share of the disaster. I bet that the governor of Puerto Rico knows about this but he is under threat. If he doesn't play the federal well dries up. 

The saddest part is that this is likely all legal. And anything questionable will be covered up since this is backed at the highest levels.



47
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 24, 2017, 02:49:35 PM »
17 births of babies with microcephaly registered last month. That number is only goind to go up. Mankind's oldest enemy and greatest enemy taking it's toll.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/locales/nota/gobiernonorecopiladatossobrezikadesdehaceunmes-2368373/

48
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: October 23, 2017, 07:25:23 PM »
I still love my mangoe tree, but the hero tree after Hurricane Maria is the Mulberry tree. 32 days after being pressure washed for 26 hours the tree just yielded 2 cups of delicious ripe Mullberries. And there are so many left.

The tree is amazing. Maria striped the whole tree to bare branches. there were few leaves left on the lower part of the tree but they  were all burnt. Two days after maria it sprouted new leaves. Two weeks later the whole tree filled with fruit. Now I'm enjoying them. Awesome tree.

49
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 23, 2017, 07:14:31 PM »
I think the comfort is being underutilized because there is only one hospital ( Centro Medico) with the authority to transfer patients to the Comfort. This means the Comfort is only catching patient oberflow or special services from one hospital. There are 200 and some hospitals in PR and there are temporary Army hospitals through the island. I hope at least the Army facilities can refer to the Comfort.

Centro Medico it is the last stop hospital in Puerto Rico in more ways than one. It has the most specialist, and it treats people that can't afford treatment in other hospitals or  At least they are transfered there. Centro Medico is currently experiencing power outages and generator failures, like everywhere else.

There is also the thing about money. Hospitals are mostly for profit facilities who operate most profitably at 100% utilization.  I do not know who pays for the services rendered by the Comfort. If it is the government of Puerto Rico well thats the reason.

50
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 22, 2017, 04:03:43 PM »
On the Comfort. A groupf Doctors on the radio were saying that the problem is that no one knows how to get patients onto the ship. The phone numbers given over the media lead to the main Puertorican medical center ER and from there they connect you to a phone number that no one picks up. According to them the rumor  is that only the main Medical Center can refer patients to the comfort. This medical center is currently experiencing sporadic blackouts. Doctors have performed surgeries with flashlights in this place.

Again more fishiness.

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