Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - magnamentis

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 25
1
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 14, 2017, 11:26:11 PM »
Patrick, how do you make that screenshot with Windy ?

he will certainly reply to your question but in the mean time, may i ask what exactly your issue is?

i mean on any device i remember to have had it in use it was quite easy and standard procedure to make screenshots. if you tell us what kind of device you're using and/or would like to make such screenshots perhaps we can gladly provide you with the details.

however, in any case it's device dependent, main choice would be iOS, Android, MacOS or Windows whiel there are a few more like linux etc.


2
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 14, 2017, 11:17:16 PM »
he should go by the name of dagobert instead of the "donald" LOL

3
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 14, 2017, 12:05:10 AM »
i'm not one who has to be sorry, shame on me, i mixed something up and looked in an entirely wrong graph, even had a feeling but was to lazy to go back and verify, double fail  :-[

you are and were totally right, embarrasing but it happend ;)

thanks for correcting, ill alter the post now

4
The rest / Re: Ukraine, Nazis and western support
« on: October 13, 2017, 08:06:39 PM »
I began this thread but i do not own it. By Ukrainian Nazis i mean those Ukrainian collaborators like Bandera and his ideological descendants.

sidd

sure i understand the meaning and i clearly share your view, i mean "that specific word" which come across almost each day because there are so many german channels, even some of which i really consider "serious" who repeat "nazi" BS almost on a daily basis, bordering to glorification of the guys even though saying otherwise.

while i would never get to them to discuss this i thought i ask the question here because i'm totally certain about the meaning and intention to be right (good)

however there is not that much importance to it to start a greater OT discussion, i just asked and have no intention to go any further with this.

thanks for your reply sidd and i did never expect anything else than what you said (meant)
let's call it a bit of an allergy towards that "N" word used so often on all kinds of opportunities
not claiming that i'm right and others are not.

5
The rest / Re: Ukraine, Nazis and western support
« on: October 13, 2017, 07:47:12 PM »
each day i stumble upon this thread due to the new posts since last read and i want o ask the owner of this thread whether he still thinks that the "nazi" term is correct. i mean "nazi" means something very specific that does not apply to just righ-wing and/or faschist movements. not every nationalist, member of a right-wing party or movement and not every faschist is a nazi, in fact and IMO none of them is a nazi if he is/was not a member of the "nationalsozialistische partei deutschlands"

either i'm right or you tell me and i learn something (where i'm wrong here)

the reason why i post this is:

a) i see and think about it each day again

b) there is way too much fuss about those beaten and beheaded morons which at times makes the impression that there some people try to glorify them. Nazis are a thing of the past and even thought the way of thinking is not, the current movements should be given another name to avoid
the impression that there could be a revival which exactly serves their intentions in some way.

as i said, i'm open to other points o view and ready to learn and stand corrected should i see this wrong in a way that can objectively be proven.

EDIT: what i'm heading at is whether the title could be changed to something without "buzzwords"

6
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 13, 2017, 07:40:21 PM »
According to NSIDC data, it seems like the seasonal maximum was reached at October 11 and possible also virtually tied by October 12. If October 12 is going to be a confirmed date by NSIDC it will be a tie of the absolutely latest date a seasonal maximum has occurred around Antarctica.

The other year this happened was 2002. If you compare 2002 with 2017 from the middle of May or so, you will see a remarkable similarity between these two years.

this post has been deleted because it was wrong (badly researched and not verified as correctly pointed out by LMV below) :-[

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: October 06, 2017, 11:09:20 PM »
"You have a choice Houston, starve to death...or eat vegan."

(ENTIRE CITY OF HOUSTON TAKES A BIG SWIG OF WHISKY)
"I'll see you in hell."
https://mobile.twitter.com/mattoswaltva/status/903834627768324096

i have serious doubts whether vegan is really healthy  but then when i see all this processed food in that image perhaps vegan is healthy, just not that way LOL

i'm not an expert in vegan nutrition but this is just what crossed my mind when i saw that shelf.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: October 05, 2017, 12:02:53 AM »
Niall....

Was Svalbard temperatures at near record highs throughout this melt season? If so, how do we explain the persistent ice on the Atlantic side of the CAB? Could it be that insolation is far more important to melt than air temperatures?

that relatively thick ice drifted in from the CAB during last winter and was replenished far into this melting season. it was not "stationary" ice that just did not melt.

further the presence of every freshly "imported" ice into the region throughout winter and spring kept the directly surrounding waters relatively cool and the permanent melt kept it at relatively low salinity which. all these factors add to persistent ice cover in the region despite warm temps and warm oceans in the wider neighbourhood.

however that was, it will sooner or later have an impact because the "imported" ice from the CAB will reduce average thickness in the CAB and eventually in the beaufort/chucky region while a really cold winter with conditions that are good to build a lot of new ice could neutralize that effect.

as usual, predictions are difficult and mostly proven wrong/useless but interesting it is nevertheless.

9
And now, with Trump in office, George W Bush actually seems like a swell guy:

Corp. Democrats Disgusting Rehabilitation Of George Bush

! No longer available

Pretty insane...

i never thought that's possible and that GWB can be "topped" in the U.S. of A. how naive of me ;)

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Low GHG Meat
« on: October 03, 2017, 12:42:25 AM »
Ummm, why not just eat vegetables, grains, legumes and fruits...?

because genetically we have various kinds of metabolisms and not all of them are made for sole vegetarian nutrition, you can read this up, there is too much to it while as a general guideline, people with bloodgroup "zero" don't do well with wheat corn and the likes, it makes them ill, i self tested this, at the age of 42 i could barely walk down the stairs in the morning without using the rails and now, 20 years later i jump up and run, i simply gave up on carbo hydrates as a main source of energy and switched to specific vegetable, limited amounts of fruit (suger/fructose is the problem) and mostly lean meat, bio-eggs, fish, chicken and twice a week a juicy spanish "chuleton the buey" LOL

i have some food tables for each bloodgroup as a guideline while it's far from being the whole story. mostly it's about quantities as well as sources. in my fridge there are zero processed foods while i enjoy the full program in restaurants, currently a bit too frequently but these are periods that pass ;)

11
The rest / Re: Hello from Croatia, and Thanks for all the Fish
« on: October 01, 2017, 01:48:11 AM »
magnamentis  (a very apt name) -

"BTW there is an anti dope against the magic"

Minor typo there:

BTW there is an anti dope (sic) against the magic.   ;D

I know what you meant, but 'anti dope' is so much better when speaking of politicians of a particular type.

glad for any help to improve my english skills, sometimes i think i never get there, even though i speak and write by far more in english than in my mother tongue german nowadays, 6 years of classes and childhood obviously are hare to replace. thank you, very much appreciated :D

12
The rest / Re: How do you get here? - from there???
« on: September 29, 2017, 10:16:10 PM »
Since over 200 million of the world's women do not have access to birth control, how do you propose to prevent men from creating all those extra babies?

we refuse to use any artificial birth control for decades and it works/worked for decades, it simply depends whether the spirit (brain) or the animal (body) has control over us and that does not only apply to procreation, applies to consumption, nutrition and any other vices and exagerations for not being misunderstood, we enjoy life a lot and have lots of fun, just not mainstreem stupidly LOL

13
The rest / Re: Hello from Croatia, and Thanks for all the Fish
« on: September 29, 2017, 10:10:53 PM »
nothing much changed in all this years. howdy?
hope, you are well :)

Howdy!

I'm glad you bumped this thread - I hadn't read it before.  Your thoughts on 'magicians' are spot-on.

I, with no offence intended to any other nation, would argue that GB has the best magicians in the world.  Not only can they make public money vanish, but private money also.  Better yet: there are some magicians who specialise in making whole binders full of important documents vanish without a trace - for a fee.  In the one case the fee is called 'postage', in the other it is called a 'court application fee'.

i disagree about the UK, the swiss have the best magicians because they get their stock walk into the slaughterhouse on free will LOL.

if you consider one of the most efficient police states with a population believing they have a choice
and consider themselves "free people" that's the non plus ultra of magic IMO

BTW there is an anti dope against the magic, legally avoid paying tax at the highest possible level, not talking tax-fraud here which is why i said legally, unfortunately i can't elaborate further LOL

14
The forum / Re: Using your smartphone? Switch to Theme Exodus!
« on: September 28, 2017, 02:33:31 AM »
Inquiring minds want to know... how does one switch themes?  ???
if you root your phone [...]


Nay Sir, here I just suggested about changing the Forum's theme you use when you browse from your phone!!

i see LOL, didn't even know the forum has themes, have been on default them from day one, thanks for the hint and correction

15
The forum / Re: Using your smartphone? Switch to Theme Exodus!
« on: September 26, 2017, 10:31:58 PM »
and more

16
The forum / Re: Using your smartphone? Switch to Theme Exodus!
« on: September 26, 2017, 10:28:44 PM »
some more

17
The forum / Re: Using your smartphone? Switch to Theme Exodus!
« on: September 26, 2017, 10:27:04 PM »
Inquiring minds want to know... how does one switch themes?  ???

if you root your phone you can use something like substratum (OMS) and download themes from the store and apply them, you can basically almost anything, i for my part want all things dark, beside that i like the colors more it uses less battery on amoled, oleds and super amoled displays, it depends a bit what kind of phone one is using but the posibilities are endless :-)

sinde i've been working for the industry before i retired i kept in touch and do all custom on my various phones, hence perhaps i can be of help should someone be interested.

BTW in google chrome one better checks desktop version to get best results for this site.

for root method i recommend magisk

of course, depending on the brand of a phone they have built in but limited theming that can be found in menus like:

- system UI (Tuner)

- themes

- etc.

i attached a few shots to give a very limited idea. the example device is in green+black, while one is in blue+black and any combination is possible.

should anyone be interested i recommend to visit xda developers website to learn how to get the most out of smartphones and tablets and there are equivalents for iOS. don't hesitate to ask while even though i use macs for 28 years i would only have all the answers for android OS since that's my platform of choice for smart devices.

https://forum.xda-developers.com/subscription.php?do=viewsubscription

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 15, 2017, 01:57:34 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!

you mean to value being right and revenge (they have to pay) over the health and wellbeing fauna and flora ?

this is an approach that caused most wars in the past and still does. we need a healthy stable climate and not a catastrophe just to feel we were right. i was wrong about this melting season when it came to my expectations for second lowest and that's GOOD not bad, for example LOL

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 13, 2017, 08:07:32 PM »
i can't comment on your assumptions about the ice having little impact/importance to the rest of the global climate, just taking it as a statement and express my doubts, while even should that be as you say, the sea-ice is significantly impacted by what's going on on the planet as a whole (climate change etc.) and hence even should your assumptions be true and my doubts in vain, the ice is definitely one key indicator of ongoing changes and as such it's by no means unimportant because it's an "eye catcher where changes of .x degrees in global temps are becoming obvious.

this is not exclusive to sea-ice of course, glaciers and many other indicators exist but then sea-ice-extent is just easy for everyone to compare to let's say 30 years ago or even earlier.

I just meant sea ice is a following indicator not a leading one. Obviously it's of interest to many different disciplines to study it and track it's behaviour but there are few where it's worth modelling a forecast of a few days.

The wavewatch model and, as far as I'm aware, the GFS, both only take the ice field at the start and treat it as fixed through out the forecast. It simply doesn't vary enough in that time scale to have noticeable effects (and in reality there is so little monitoring in the areas that would be affected that no one would notice anyway).

got what you mean, all about terms like so often, all good ;) :D

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 13, 2017, 12:01:34 AM »
i can't comment on your assumptions about the ice having little impact/importance to the rest of the global climate, just taking it as a statement and express my doubts, while even should that be as you say, the sea-ice is significantly impacted by what's going on on the planet as a whole (climate change etc.) and hence even should your assumptions be true and my doubts in vain, the ice is definitely one key indicator of ongoing changes and as such it's by no means unimportant because it's an "eye catcher where changes of .x degrees in global temps are becoming obvious.

this is not exclusive to sea-ice of course, glaciers and many other indicators exist but then sea-ice-extent is just easy for everyone to compare to let's say 30 years ago or even earlier.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 05, 2017, 07:40:21 PM »
The slushy ice in the CAB will refreeze and build up to 3m thickness until next June if it will stay in CAB. If The Fram export will be slow, the CAB will have quite enough volume

that's a rarely mentioned corelation, thanks for the reminder that fram export is not a give thing ;)

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 05, 2017, 07:36:00 PM »
This is a most unexpected wind down to the season.
After the very mild winter I didn't necessarily expect a new record, but I also never expected us to fall this far back after so much global warming.


Whenever I think I understand Arctic Ice, it slaps me in the face.
Terry

+1

good school however, i often say that who claims he got it has just proven he/she didn't because we never really will understand/know it all.

the part i love with this things is that we learn, the second highest goal after love, and then we get cut back to real size by cosmic powers, this considering that our planet and all on and in it is a part of the universe/cosmos ;)

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 04, 2017, 06:26:57 PM »
It is safe to say, no matter if the minimum is today or by end of the month, that the amount of ice, and more importantly the spatial distribution of it, is similar to last year's end of season, with more and thicker ice in the Atlantic side, and sparser and thinner ice in the Pacific side, although the way the ice pack has reached to it is really different.
Interesting observation. Indeed the path to this distribution was quite different, but the end result similar. I still wonder myself what the end result will be, the thin slushy ice is in competition with the looming refreeze.

currently all speaks for your theory that the relative widely spread slushy ice could make for an early relative jump in extent and area gains, also similar to last year. IMO it depends how much of the reminder is 10, 20 and 30cm thick. in case of a lot of 10cm ice my theory still has a chance, if all remaining ice is 20+ cm thick i think your views will prevail, i give it another 5-10 days max to declare defeat LOL

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 03, 2017, 09:24:55 PM »
Look like it has been snowing:

true that ;)

when looking towards horizon in the pics taken by this buoy it often looks like a lot of open water while at least one side of the buys is heavily surrounded by persisting ice, the thought crossed my mind that the buoy may have it's own freezer on board ;) :)

just to make sure, i hope that everyone got it that i'm just kidding ;)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 02, 2017, 03:56:59 PM »
OK, so this is where I officially give up trying to make sense of this melting season, IJIS.  Thanks gerontocrat.  Any ideas why the melt suddenly picked up?

because bottom melt takes over while surface refreeze is sparse or not yet existent and the ice is very thin hence more and more parts of the puzzle are going to disappear as long as there will be no serious surface freezing for which it will take temps around -10C to kick off in serious and over significant areas to compensate for bottom melt. if on of those storms eventually will make it into the arctic, let's say one of the kind of last december/january, some would be heavily surprised to see half of the reminder or close to that go within 2-3 days.

apparently we dodged the canonball but who can tell whether there isn't a cluster bomb under way ?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 01, 2017, 10:51:26 PM »
so, instead of repeating words i thought to illustrate where i see this season end:

2n lowest in the second half of the range of dates that minimums occured earlier.

reason is that there is a lot of ice widely spread in parts even peripheral and it's so thin
and fragmented that bottom melt and every kind of wind and wave action will have an impact on that ice in parts till october and i'm sure we shall sooner or later see heavy winds and waves
hit different regions so that the ice will remain in a fragile and relatively thin state so that bottom melt can continue to do it's job quite late into the year. even an october minimum would be possible even though i more tend to see a minimum between 17th and 23rd of september which of course is an arbitrary choice more of a gut feeling, let's see.

and now i'm curious and i did not say it will, only it could and that's my guess !!!

what @oren wrote somewhere would be the opposite stance which is very well possible as well while i believe that bottom melt due to the heat in the system and wind and wave action due to the bad consistency of the ice will prevail this year but again @oren's theory makes sense as well and it will be interesting to see how things go.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 31, 2017, 09:46:52 PM »
Right. So who's we?  In my opinion
You should write the chief scientist there and tell them of the big mistake in their model.
No, I don't find anything essentially mistaken in their model, don't misunderstand my words.
Let's not make a ball effect of misunderstandings. I don't agree with some of what you said, not with what the maps indicate. You being whatever collectivity or an individual. Ok? That's all.

probably an individual sharing his views with others or even a majority, at least i see things similarly and if bottom melt is a reality (which of course it is) is still think we could be in for a surprise, similar to what happend in beaufort recently 25% gone in no time.  as i mentioned earlier, i expect a very late in the season effect of bottom melt to the final result of this season due to generally thin and fragmented ice, not even talking about a storm an wave action which could happen almost any time during the next few weeks that are still well within the average period of melting.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: August 27, 2017, 02:16:04 AM »
a few knots less and that battery reqirements could be reduced significently. add what neven said plus a skite sail or two and perhaps the reduced long term costs would become attractive for some goods ?

just throwing in a few thoughts but i think that sooner or later efficiency and environmental concerns should overrule speed at all costs.

29
The rest / Re: What is going on
« on: August 24, 2017, 04:39:20 PM »
since i dislike too many "me too(s) i just say that reading this page can do the for some job :-)

especially i find it kind of brave to admit certain things in public since there are still too many old school people who'd say that a man doesn't cry, totally disagree, on the opposite, a good man
should be able and self-confident enough to cry not only in secluded places.

i personally am of the "movie" fraction as well as get tears most often from happiness and recognition of new valuable insight.

30
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 24, 2017, 04:33:35 PM »
Hounding any president out of office is wrong.

So it was wrong for Nixon to be "hounded out of office"? Should Americans--and the House--have simply looked the other way, shrugged, and said, "Yeah, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and criminal cover-up are all bad things. But we shouldn't hound Nixon, so it's all good."

I disagree.

We need a President who's not just capable of handling the duties of the office, but one who is beholden to no one or nothing but America's citizens and its ideals. And given that an increasing amount of the data contained in the so-called "Steele dossier" has been corroborated, meaning that perhaps most if not all of it is true, Russia has been working Trump for years, grooming him while amassing major quantities of compromat to be used against him.

The guy with access to the nuclear codes shouldn't be in such a position. And I am perfectly comfortable "hounding out of office" anyone in that position if that's what it'll take to keep us safe.

lack of being held responsible on all kinds of higher echelon is a general flaw in the system, i'd even go much farther than just ousting those irresponsible kind but make them pay, throw them into prison and the likes. however, what i'm saying is that i fully agree with your views like so often ;)

31
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 24, 2017, 01:19:11 AM »
Who cares about Russiagate. In the next 5 years the world population will grow by something between 500 and 600 million people. Most of them in places where people are already running from in large numbers. Most of them will end up in places like the US and Canada. And they will all support the left wing. What will be the impact of that on the artic sea ice melt, and on things like US aquifers. Because many are already in a bad shape. And after 8 years Obama, you can be sure they will all come.

while you may have point one can still care about now and about other things than that, there is no contradiction in it. only limit is the individual multitasking bandwidth so to say  ;) ;) i see little sense in playing out one topic that is an integrated part of the whole against another.

32
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 23, 2017, 08:15:52 PM »
+1 to 1-5, those reasons are a proper base for an assessment of this kind.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 23, 2017, 08:13:03 PM »
Really big icebergs that break off ice sheets rather than glaciers are generally called "tabular icebergs", although the largest are sometimes called "ice islands".

great to get the picture finally, very much appreciated both replies @oren's and yours

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 23, 2017, 08:11:53 PM »
I always thought the 15 percent rule originated from the days of sail as a measure of when it would be dumb to venture further into the ice. But I have never found a confirmation of this.
I thought the same as you, i.e. anything more than 15%, and you don't even want to think about going there.

However, there is also another reason for that particular value. During one of my dialogues with the NSIDC team, I was given the following response...

"15% concentration is useful for some marine navigation. However, the contour was originally developed since this threshold provided the best agreement between passive microwave remote sensing on space-paced platforms and aerial overflight work in early studies (e.g. Cavalieri et al. 1991: Aircraft active and passive microwave validation of sea ice concentration from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave Imager. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 96, 21989 – 22008, doi: 10.1029/91JC02335.)"

15% is the accuracy at the lower end of the concentration scale, which is why the match works best at this level. A measurement of above 15% almost certainly has ice in it, one below could well be open water.

thanks for explaining this and especially good to know that it's not arbitrary ;)

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 23, 2017, 07:08:43 PM »
thanks, didn't know that,

to extend the question a bit, of course without questioning your reply as such, the ice-shelf that broke of in the antarctic is what then, a floe ?

i know its OT but i hope one more question is allowed since it originated on-topic and is just a side-question to further make use of the correct terms and since we're already at it, if an ice-floe ( thick one of course ) would brake loose and later would be sighted somewhere south of greenland from the bridge of a vessel, would there really be made a difference and that one floe would be called floe while all the bergs around it would be bergs ?

i hope it's not too much asked but i really wanna know once and for all :-)

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 07:04:55 PM »
@Ned nice job, for further discredit of my opening post :)
For the last metric, I was expecting area to really start reaching bottom, but not really. As unusual as this season usually has been. The area curve should be getting flat now and extent keep dropping, not the opposite.

@Ned nice job, for further discredit of my opening post :)
For the last metric, I was expecting area to really start reaching bottom, but not really. As unusual as this season usually has been. The area curve should be getting flat now and extent keep dropping, not the opposite.

thanks for opening this thread now. the price for thinking or even acting ahead of the main stream seems to be high enough once more, i, like yourself, find it interesting to speculate the transition now that the season once more has proven it's "off any norm status" sooner or later we probably need a rule for opening such threads, until then i enjoy this and more to come. IMO it would even be possible to discuss the impact on much earlier states of the melting season on the coming freezing season. perhaps some people planned to open the freezing thread themselves ? ;)

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 23, 2017, 06:52:35 PM »
There are no icebergs in these waters as far as I know. I would say it's part of an ice floe that due to pressure from other floes got turned on its side or broken and squeezed upward or whatever. The experts here should have names for such phenomena. Ridging?
It seems to be a recurring theme, if you browse far upthread you will find more.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg61703.html#msg61703
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg63303.html#msg63303
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg86917.html#msg86917
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg87887.html#msg87887

mind to elaborate the correct definition of "ice-berg" if it's a berg that is made of ice, no matter how small and how it came to existence it would be an ice-berg, except the definition of "ice-berg" is more specific as to size and origin. ( no sarc, i really wanna know, just to make sure it's like that )

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 20, 2017, 10:50:28 PM »
Really? You look at models over ice itself?

No Killian. I look at the ice charts kindly provided by the Canadian Ice Service.

YMMV.

Take it up with the CIS. And actually that's an image I posted:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg125874.html#msg125874

those are on the safe side, it's about money once again, liability, eventual rescue costs etc.
IMO NWP is navigable looking at all the info that is floating around but the official status by canadian ice service is a bit about covering their back.

39
i doubt that any humanly built barrier can withstand that kind of force, forces like ice-drift on a very large scale. doubt does not mean i say it's not possible, i'm not an engineer or architect but i'd guess that such barriers would simply be pushed away and if it were feasible, maintenance and construction would cost huge and then for what benefit. the ice would simply melt on the other side of the barrier very soon ;)

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: August 15, 2017, 01:11:01 AM »
I often wonder why there is so little consideration for biofuel for aviation to reduce (or eliminate) net carbon emissions from planes. It is proven technology which is mostly limited by high cost at this point.

Turns out biofuels can also reduce  other pollution currently emitted by jet engines.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2580/nasa-study-confirms-biofuels-reduce-jet-engine-pollution/#.WP-pErf3r4g.facebook

depends which biofuel, fuel from "FOOD" is a bullet in starving peoples foot as well as bad for those who cannot easily or at all afford raising basic food prices like corn, wheat and the likes.

there are many enough examples where biofuel has started to produced ins significant quantities while they were far from the quantities needed to replace fossil fuel and already there have arisen serious issues as mentioned above and more.

food, as long as there are people who starve on this planet is a crime to be used for energy purposes hence if biofuel it has to be produced from real waste and with very strong regulations.

the regulations needed i don't trust will be implemented due to our corrupt and lobby driven
political system, especially once the big players join the party in serious.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 08:06:34 PM »
if anyone is interested to know what i'm talking about for months now is this what happened withing a few hours around o-buoy 14:

and yes i'm aware that the back could look still difference (probably does) but nevertheless it was not so much open water anywhere during recent rotations of the buoy ;)

Go look at this area in PolarView (there's an image from this morning that shows the area just north of the buoy) and you can see that the buoy is near the edge of a lot of ice to the west and open water to the east. We couldn't see it up until now because the buoy wasn't free to rotate. Definitely I think there was a lot of melt and break up this weekend, but it isn't like all that ice we were seeing before has all but disappeared.

i think i clearly mentioned that the other side may look different, nevertheless the buoy has till recently been surrounded by ice, sitting inside a floe, visible on the very same sat images you mentioned. of course i can read between the lines, hence nothing new from that side.


i wanted to avoid identical double-posts since they're often not welcome, hence read both my posts on the matter, combine them and all is said and clear

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg125274.html#new

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 08:04:47 PM »
if anyone is interested to know what i'm talking about for months now is this what happened withing a few hours around o-buoy 14:

and yes i'm aware that the back could look still difference (probably does) but nevertheless it was not so much open water anywhere during recent rotations of the buoy ;)
In view of the GPS track, and of the satellite images, some here were wondering why we were not watching an image like this before.
I am not sure what you have been claiming since since months but I hope you are not 🍒 picking or utilizing this otherwise expectable image

i think i pointed out "NO CLAIM" how much clearer can one be ? i have the opinion that due to thinner than usual ice, bottom melt will sooner or later see to some kind of sudden death and this image looks like that. whatever one can say, short ago the buoy was inside a flow on all sides and that has first slowly and now more or less suddenly disintegrated at least on one side.

i wanted to avoid identical double-posts since they're often not welcome, hence read both my posts on the matter, combine them and all is said and clear

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg125274.html#new

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 14, 2017, 07:52:00 PM »
Watching closely yet reserving judgment.  I recall quite a prolonged warm spell across the CAA a few years back, which I thought would cause a dramatically early opening of the NWP.  In the event, it was only a little early (end July iirc).  It takes a lot of heat to melt all that ice.

as to the NWP, due to last years import of more than usual MYI chuncks it will take even more to clear it, keyword "garlic press".

once the CAA kept the thick ice north of it the more southern parts were easier to melt out. as we have seen O-Buoy 14 has made quite some distance south-east which is somehow showing the path the ice that in parts originates in the CAB would take.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 07:28:52 PM »
Much like last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#OBuoy14

exactly and last year ended second extent wise and not sure about area but depending on the source that was even lower, hence we're on a schedule expected by many if not most, nevertheless the poor melting momentum and once the atlantic side will get hit by storms, waves and humid warmth, who knows how it will end, probably second lowest again but this time by far, somewhere in the middle between 2012 and 2016 is well possible.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 14, 2017, 07:22:07 PM »
i'm sure many remember what some here are expecting over wider areas (as a possibility of course, no claim that it has to) then look at this image and those a few hours before:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg125272.html#msg125272


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 07:19:57 PM »
if anyone is interested to know what i'm talking about for months now is this what happened withing a few hours around o-buoy 14:

and yes i'm aware that the back could look still difference (probably does) but nevertheless it was not so much open water anywhere during recent rotations of the buoy ;)

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 14, 2017, 03:17:23 PM »
By my calculation, the odds of finishing in various places are as follows:

1st:  0%
2nd:  39%
3rd:  11%
4th:  36%
5th:  01%
6th:  12%
7th:  01%
8th or worse:  ~0%

1st 0% would have been the value in 2012 throughout most of the season, what happened then was something new that never happened before,  hence could not be foreseen.

2017 something new could happen as well ( in polls i opted for 2nd all season so no disagreement with that ), just saying, only, even though it can't be predicted, this time most of us are aware of the possibility, (thin, fragmented ice that could be eaten up to zero extent by bottom melt, as well as possible strong winds and wave action )

what i want to say is that 0% chance for 1st i wouldn't sign, (a) for the above reasons and (b) because i generally try to never say 0% and to never say 100% sure if it's avoidable.

i would give a 1st place still a chance or 5-10%, going down by the day of course but for the next 10 days i'd not call it 0% chance.

i know you did the math and they're correct, the above i just wanted to add to round up the picture.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 12, 2017, 08:35:34 PM »
For some ground-truthing, compare Wipneus' high-contrast map with O-Buoy 14's location and camera image (60% water?)

beside the fact that you're right when it comes to the direct optical comparison it has to be mentioned that he many times pointed out that this images of his come with a somehow extremely increased contrast to show where things get "watery" only with that in mind those images can be interpreted correctly. they are artificial to point something out and not meant to be 1:1 readable as ice covered or ice-free which is why the comparison for the purpose of truth finding is not appropriate.


49
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: August 11, 2017, 09:49:37 PM »
you're right but why reaches ? it has been like that for most of the year or do i translate the word "reach" wrongly. until now i thought reaching is to get to a point/state/place where one has not been the moment before? would gladly make sure that i'm not mistaken or learn.

50
be patient, the main difference this year is thickness and logically it will show on the last mile, means during the last few weeks of the melting season. it's already hinting and if the weather conditions won't see to a very early minimum and a calm reminder of the season i still think we're getting close ( opted for second lowest from the beginning and stick to it )

BTW, talking about being close at the end of the season, IMO we are permanently close to the lowest at almost any time this year or below earlier. i opt for a sudden death over wide areas for the reason mentioned above.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 25