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Hmmm. What would be better?
Extent for 8/22: 5003285 (drop of 44622; 5th lowest for this date).
Live version of the predict-o-matic now says 4.27 (range 4.03-4.51). There is a 41% chance of 4th place and a 48% chance of 6th place. Complete list of odds:
1st place: 0%
2nd place: 2%
3rd place: 3%
4th place: 41%
5th place: 4%
6th place: 48%
7th place: 3%
8th place or higher: 0%
Extent losses similar to those from 2007-2016 for the remaining days of the season would result in a 2017 minimum of 4.11 to 4.45.
Would it be safe to say that one of the NW passage routes is now open/navigable?
In 20 days tops, this is over.
Sept. 7 is not that early. I believe last year the minimum occurred on that date, and 2015 was a day later. Later dates are the exception. With a colder Atlantic and snows in Greenland, I would tend to agree with that date, if not earlier.
The north of Greenland cools now, it's about -10 °C today. Air temperatures in the ocean still above melting point.
The animation below shows snapshots in 8 AUG and today.
Need a click
The lower-bound for September average from the Slater's forecast model was 4.5 M km^2, which occurred in the first half of September.
According to the 06Z Environment Canada synopsis the latest cyclone is down to 980 hPa MSLP:
What will the storm do after 3 days...?
I agree that this freeze season should be riveting....I will be here daily all winter.
Fram daily export was more negative than positive in the first 15 days in July. IOW it was more like import, all according to the PIOMAS model.
This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum
What is an "average minimum"? For each day in september you go plus and minus 15 days to get a monthly average and then take the minimum of those 30 samples?QuoteThese are the September minimums for the last 12 years ...
2012: 3.63
You used "September average" on the poll title, then said it was the "September average minimum", then gave data for the "September minimum"... I'm a computer programmer and a math major, can we be more literal and consistent?
Charctic says that the NSIDC 2012 September daily minimum was 3.387, so presumably we are consistently not talking about that.
In comes another century extent loss, this time area loss is even
....
Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
East Siberian Sea
562.6 -20.0 -155.8
Hmmm, maybe I should change the thread title to 'How soon could we go sweat-free?'.
magnamentis, that's the ability for warm-blooded creatures (including us) to lose metabolic heat. If we cannot lose the heat generated by our own metabolic processes, we experience cell death both apoptotic and necrotic, leading to death. Any place that experiences temperatures that make it thermodynamically impossible to lose metabolic heat, even for a few hours, becomes uninhabitable.
Parts of Iran, Pakistan and India have already come close.
We only have till sometime in February until the melting ends....and February will likely be "flatish"....so one more month of any significant melting.....and then the attention turns to the North...
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS
The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model. You need both. The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.
The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249
Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.
Errors are no problem, as long as they are made consistently,
I am going to pull stuff from university...
Pi26: it's highly unlikely that the SIE number as of NSIDC would be below 11,5 Mn km2. Less than 11,5 Mn km2 by June 1 is also pretty hard to reach as it would probably be a new record low for that date.
//LMV
That part I get... but what the reduction in winter heat loss translates to in terms of subsequent summer ice loss is less obvious (to me at least). My guess (and it's little more than that) is that in the past it generally wouldn't have changed much at all near the surface since the ~0-10m depth temperature and salinity are pretty-much self-stabilizing as long as the ice sheet is unbroken.
...but even so the reduced winter losses contribute to the energy reservoir lower down accumulating over time. What I was trying to get at in my earlier comment was that once the surface sheet is no longer unbroken over a large area, big waves and mixing between the ice and the warmer, more saline lower layers becomes possible. At that point, I'd speculate, it all goes at once.
Yes, that may be true for the ice itself. But the cold air being held by it in one place it's another story. The jetstream anomalies are expected to ramp up exponentially as soon as the ice is gone.
Making weather chaos in the NH permanent.u
And we haven't touched on the issue of clathrates.plo
Really, it's a very long list. There is no one mechanism, there is just all kinds of bad stuff going on moving in and out of phase. Had we had 2007 weather this summer, new lows in area and volume,
This Summer was very warm for the Northern Hemisphere and for the Arctic in particular. Google "global temperatures NOAA" if you wish. As for the Arctic, see the current SSTs, for instance (I don't mind cherry-picking this time)
BTW, right now this map shows an interesting fact: the area of ocean heat excess that is contributing most to direct melting right now is that yellowish area in Beaufort/Chukchi, because even when there is just 1 C of above average temperature, this will keep bottom and lateral melt of dispersed and broken ice for a good while (google "ITP buoy arctic" and "mil buoy arctic" and "greatwhitecon").
Nice image Diablobanquisa. See in the map green/blueish area around the Laptev's bite's bite.
Killian, 6roucho,
....However would it be expected to have a four year period? I suspect not, I would expect a random periodicity, which with a sufficently large dataset (e.g. parallel runs in a model), might have similar frequency domain charateristics but not a regular cycle (e.g. 4 years in every run of the model).
[quote author=AySz88 link=topic=1149.msg62366#msg62366 date=1441001780]
[quote author=ChrisReynolds link=topic=1149.msg62301#msg62301 date=1440917792]
[img width=483 height=409]https://farm1.staticflickr.com/774/20987222552_200984cb30_o.png[/img]
p-value = Chance of a random ordered set of 12 years...