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Messages - citrine

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Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: February 23, 2017, 04:01:25 PM »
More on climate change in general and the California floods:

Critique of Obama's State of the Union address re: climate and energy

The Limits and Missed Opportunities of Obama's Energy Legacy

The rest / Rupert Murdoch and Jerry Hall are engaged
« on: January 12, 2016, 10:16:19 PM »
Rupert Murdoch and Jerry Hall are engaged:

My first thought was ewww...

Then I though, perhaps Jerry Hall will influence Murdoch on climate change; she and her daughter have both posed in 'Save the Arctic' t-shirts for Climate Revolution.

Could this be good news?

The rest / Re: 2016 Predictions
« on: January 07, 2016, 07:05:00 PM »
So I'm not the only one thinking that WWIII might be on the way? I've been getting the feeling for some months that here in the US propaganda (both 'news' and 'entertainment') has been cranking up.

Consequences / Re: What most worries you and why?
« on: October 28, 2015, 03:46:24 AM »

Since you are familiar with Guy MacPherson's views, can you tell me how he reaches his conclusion that it's game over by around 2030?

Is this predicated on peak oil and the lack-of-dimming phenomenon (I guess you could call it the 'clear sky effect') resulting in rapid warming?

Or is his prediction based on East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane release?

Thanks for the links on Patricia, Sigmetnow.

These lines from the second article jumped out at me:

"This historic feat took everyone by surprise. No weather models predicted this, and just a few short days ago, even the most experienced meteorologist would have laughed if you mentioned the possibility."

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 11, 2015, 01:35:07 AM »
NOAA is going to release the global data September Release: 19 October 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
So not next Monday, but Monday week.

Thanks for setting me straight; I lose track of the date often since I'm not working.
(though you'd think I would have noticed since the current date is displayed all over the place on this site)

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 09, 2015, 06:26:58 PM »
Does anyone here pay attention to the monthly Global Analysis report from NOAA?
I'm new to this stuff, so I don't know if it is the absolute best source of up-to-date information.

I've been waiting for the September report and I think they keep moving the release date back - I think they have done it twice so far. I was waiting for it to be released today, now it is set to be released on Monday.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 09, 2015, 06:25:01 PM »
I'm not sure if perhaps I've sort of shifted focus on this thread; perhaps we should move over to the gardening thread?

I've tried barley groats and didn't like them much; I do like pearl barley in soups. One thing I like to consider when I do my daydreaming about homesteading (I don't really have the space for growing much besides a tomato plant and a few other things; I did try the community garden one year, but I really want to be able to decide on what to grow myself) is how will I be able to process the food? So I've thought about buckwheat since it seems like you could hull that yourself.* I don't think millet needs much processing, but it is apparently goiterogenic.

Along with processing, I think about stuff like  cooking time, caloric yield per unit area and all the other typical factors like pest resistance and so on.

Thanks for your info on your farming; I like reading first-hand accounts of farming and homesteading.

*Nope, I was wrong. It is difficult to hull buckwheat without a machine.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 08, 2015, 02:41:13 PM »
That's been my experience; I'm hypoglycemic, but it mostly just affects me in the morning. I get the health-conscious type cereal (Kashi brand); they eat it for breakfast and it doesn't bother them. I eat it just for snacks later in the day. If I eat it for breakfast by itself I have a blood sugar crash in an hour or two.

Lately I've been just having a bowl of teff porridge with some peanut butter mixed in. Steel cut oats are good, too. Of course peanut butter probably has somewhat high energy inputs, but it is nutritionally worth it, I hope.

I wonder how hard it is to grow peanuts? I never hear of homesteaders growing them.  I think they like warm climates and harvesting might be a pain.

Another crop I don't hear much about is lentils, another legume. They seem ideal to me - nitrogen fixing, can be stored, and unlike a lot of beans, they cook up quick. Is there a downside I don't know about?

Bruce, have you ever grown fava beans? They are great nitrogen fixers, but they don't produce much per unit area*. Deer seem to like the leaves though, so maybe pigs would eat them, too?

*beans, that is. They produce a lot of foliage. I think the bean pods are fun since they are kind of like nature's version of excessive packaging.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 07, 2015, 03:22:48 PM »
Yes, I guess 'meatless Mondays' is a start, though out here it is mostly something done at home. I would be pleasantly surprised to find a school or work cafeteria that simply did not serve any meat-centered option on Mondays on a regular basis here in North Carolina.

Here's an article with a lot of interesting figures - though they may be out of date now (2006):

"A kilogram of breakfast cereal gobbles up more than 15,000 calories when it’s processed"

I've been trying to wean myself off of breakfast cereal for a while now since I figured it had some extra energy costs associated with it, but it is hard. I buy it for other family members, so it is always there in the cupboard, waiting, so convenient and crunchy...

Consequences / Re: What most worries you and why?
« on: October 07, 2015, 03:10:25 PM »
sidd: Thanks so much for the clarification & the reference to Sugihara 2012 ; it is indeed a very nice article

I still don't know what to think about the methane thing; I guess I'll find out eventually.

Most the AGW sequelae can affect agricultural production and I worry about things like a 'stuck' weather pattern over Iowa & Illinois. Then I read about how much waste there is in food production and distribution and I think that there is some elasticity there, but can changes be made fast enough to keep people fed? Will changes be made, or will some people be allowed to starve so that others can keep eating beef burgers?

Consequences / Re: What most worries you and why?
« on: October 05, 2015, 07:13:55 PM »
Figure 3: Time displacements maximizing CCM skill corresponding to causal relationships indicated above the bars.

The responses of CO2 and CH4 to temperature have significantly larger lags (the indicated p-values are from a bootstrapped paired-samples test) than the corresponding greenhouse effects of gases on temperature. The error bars show the 5th and 95th percentiles of 500 bootstrapped library sets. The lags together with the convergence of CCM (Fig. 2) imply that a marked positive feedback effect of temperature on GHGs has operated over the glacial cycles.

From Causal feedbacks in climate change
Egbert H. van Nes, Marten Scheffer, Victor Brovkin, Timothy M. Lenton,   Hao Ye,   Ethan Deyle & George Sugihara   
Nature Climate Change 5, 445–448 (2015)

Thanks AbruptSLR for the link to the article. Unfortunately, I don't have access. The abstract and graphs are interesting. The graph above sort of highlights my lack of understanding in that I would have expected  CH4 to have a quicker impact relative to CO2. Does the graph tell us anything about the relative strengths of the feedbacks?

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 04, 2015, 05:07:42 PM »
I watched Cowspiracy last night. I kind of thought that much of what was presented was already known among environmentalists. I was annoyed that no mention was made of Frances Moore Lappe and Diet for a Small Planet, probably because the recipes in the book were vegetarian and not vegan.

Permaculture approaches that include animals may be more efficient than the animal culture methods presented in the film (the 'backyard chicken farmer' was not keeping chickens as a permaculture farmer/homesteader would). Animals can eat parts of plants that humans cannot, control pests such as insects and slugs, and produce manure (which plants really do love).

Environmental organization probably should push vegetarianism and reducing meat and dairy consumption, but I think an absolutist approach (you have to be vegan and never 'fall off the wagon' or you are not an environmentalist) would probably be counter productive. On the other hand, I do think the 'Meatless Mondays' thing is kind of silly and inadequate. Maybe there should be an incremental program with meal plans and weekly targets for different levels of consumption so people could gradually make reductions.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 01, 2015, 03:41:20 PM »
Oxfam predicts food insecurity in Africa due to El Nino:

Entering Uncharted Waters: El Niño and the threat to food security

Consequences / Re: What most worries you and why?
« on: October 01, 2015, 04:56:14 AM »
Thanks, solartim27, for the link to the acronym list, and thanks to all who have responded.

Some things I had considered and other things are new to me.

Most things seem to lead to food insecurity and civil unrest/chaos, which gives me the urge to move to a place with a lower population density - though I'm not sure how to do that.

Abrupt SLR - As far as the AMOC goes, I saw a presentation by Jim White in which he states that the AMOC shutdown is not a concern this century. However, it looks like it is already slowing down. Or did I get that wrong?

Walking the walk / Informative & Useful Books
« on: September 30, 2015, 06:13:57 PM »
Please list any books you think might be particularly informative or useful now or in times to come. Cookbooks, gardening books, how to reduce your impact, all manner of how to books, etc.

I'll start with an odd one:

Unscrewed: Salvage and Reuse Motors, Gears, Switches, and More from Your Old Electronics
by Ed Sobey

Consequences / Re: What most worries you and why?
« on: September 30, 2015, 05:59:27 PM »
Thanks, Neven, for the welcome and for your blog and this forum. It's an impressive body of work, to say the least.

I've always been worried about AGW, and as time goes on I have seen pretty much nothing done about the problem, and as a result my concern has grown.  As I've gotten older my opinion of people in general has gone downhill. In the past 10 years or so  I've come to the realization that many (most?) people are not good or kind or thoughtful, so my outlook is grim overall.

Generally, I 'm concerned about positive feedbacks and abrupt climate change.

Specifically, I'm concerned about what some are saying about methane releases in the arctic.

People here seem informed and level-headed so I will try to keep reading and learning (is there a list of acronyms and their meanings somewhere?).

Walking the walk / Re: Weeds and wild-growing plants
« on: September 29, 2015, 09:08:49 PM »
I tried lambsquarters (Chenopodium album) this spring and it was very good. It is a relative of spinach and has a similar nutritional profile (which is exceptionally good). The plan's one  drawback is that it is very high in oxalic acid.

Consequences / What most worries you and why?
« on: September 29, 2015, 08:39:35 PM »
Hello, I'm new here. I'm trying to figure out just how worried I should be, so I thought I would ask the forum -

What consequences of AGW worry you most and why? What sort of time horizon are you expecting for these particular consequences?

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