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Messages - charles_oil

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1

(CNN)
Newly installed panels from
in high winds Wednesday, landing on trees on the Mexican side of the border.




https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/29/politics/us-border-wall-falls-over-high-winds/index.html


Certain irony here!

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2020, 09:59:41 PM »
Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!

Plus one - many thanks for all the regular data - hard work and much appreciated !

3
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 26, 2019, 11:11:10 PM »

Interesting gifs - thanks - could the changes be due to more / less snow drifting over or into crevasses - or being blown away?


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 25, 2019, 06:44:59 PM »

Certainly quite warm here in South-West France, no sign of freezing conditions yet (projection 4 - 12 deg c for next 10 nights/days), but has been crazy wet. 8)
 
Seasons greetings and thanks for the informative, regular posts. ;D

5
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: December 11, 2019, 12:06:54 PM »
So that explains it!

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 01, 2019, 10:34:02 AM »

Thanks Iain - somehow it would be more convincing if the map was a bit more credible and the spinning disk of tea was a bit better placed / scaled - it looks way out in space to me!
 :-\

7
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: November 07, 2019, 02:21:44 PM »
Many thanks Baking for the gifs!    Any chance it could pause / stop at the latest with a click to restart - its hard to see when its rolling round and round (and I dont know how to put it on slow-motion).

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2019, 11:38:30 AM »
Maybe something like this ….

9

As we are putting pet irritations here - how about the dates...


Is today the 27/10/19 - or 10/27/19 ?


I find Day / Month / Year easiest (and perfectly logical as they are ascending order of size) but the US standard seems to be month / day / year for some reason  -  and of course that is the one overlaid on many of the downloaded images.... 


Obviously when speaking you could equally say "27th of October" or "October the 27th"


aaaaagh - off now for a free extra traditional hour in bed (or 0.041667 of a day....)

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 20, 2019, 10:20:36 AM »

Thanks Stephan - timely reminder....


I think there is something to be said for viewing the melt and later freezing as being behind / ahead x days. 


Most of the statistics are km2 above / below average / record - whereas maybe a good way of looking at it is that we are 10 /31 days behind in the freezing  compared to average - and will probably have 10 /31 days "less" freezing as a result.


11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:14:30 PM »

I think its amazing to look at the two lowest on this day - #290 in (2012 / 2019)
NSIDC - 5 day EXTENT. 


The 1981 - 2010 median line is certainly way outside the current ice area!


Looks like there is a first glimmer of ice around the coast lines starting though....

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 14, 2019, 05:40:12 PM »

And for commercial traffic its certainly going to increase..... 


https://gcaptain.com/northern-sea-route-shipping-expected-to-quadruple-by-2024/


Whilst the Russians seem to have a handle on their "official" opening date.


https://gcaptain.com/lng-carrier-vladimir-rusanov-opens-northern-sea-route-summer-navigation-season/


And in 2023 ...
https://safety4sea.com/novatek-plans-to-keep-northern-sea-route-open-all-year-long/


Will look for some statistics as well...


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 14, 2019, 10:20:38 AM »

I know - just emphasises the difficulty for the definition of "open".  Presumably it could be:


 Navigable with icebreaker escort
 Navigable by ice-class vessel
 Navigable by ordinary commercial vessel
 Navigable by private vessels e.g. sailing boats


I think most of the tracking programmes need subscriptions to view historical data, but can identify individual ships (assuming they havent gone dar b turning off AIS!

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 13, 2019, 08:12:35 PM »


I would have thought the open / closed / in transit status of shipping (e.g. hydrocarbon exports ) would give a good clue...


https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-162.8/centery:68.5/zoom:2


as an example

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 08:08:55 PM »
Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (9.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
9.3% should read 39.3% perhaps ?
Many thanks for the regular updates too!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: October 09, 2019, 12:10:09 AM »
Any chance you could put the French language link as well ?

17
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: October 02, 2019, 10:06:10 AM »

18
Glaciers / Re: Before-after images of Svalbard glaciers
« on: September 28, 2019, 12:23:57 PM »
Thanks - that's an amazing series of comparisons !

19
The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: September 24, 2019, 05:02:33 PM »

Don't mind - I was interested in the philosophy - personally I like all of the "data" posts - but I only do a "Like" for a particularly insightful comment /post (which could be embedded in the data post - or a separate one on that thread or elsewhere) - I guess its up to everyone to decide.   


I can't see / dont know if a particular post has been liked - that would soon bump the numbers up & probably skew things, and there is a certain irony in "Liking" a report of say a fall of 100k in sea ice area.  Its usually easer to make the decision in the Arctic Sea Ice Images section!


Facebook goes a bit mad with "likes" so very happy not to go down that route!  ;)

20
The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: September 24, 2019, 01:38:01 PM »

Aren't the "likes" for individuals doing exceptional posts - probably posts above and beyond the "normal" ?  We cant see the likes related to each post I dont think
Think they were only introduced in 2018 too ....   


If we all did a "like" for each time a set of graphs or statistics is posted for example they would soon add up but not sure they would mean as much imho.

21
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: September 24, 2019, 12:09:12 PM »

Watching the ruling - that was a real "WOW" moment - hopefully thwarts Boris's plan to drive the UK out of EU without a deal !   Unlawful = lying to queen = not prime ministerial - I think he has to go!


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 23, 2019, 03:52:15 PM »

I think the daily updates of several slightly different data sets are great - and my thanks as well like Phil42 to everyone that does them as it takes real dedication!  :) 


I think the smoother 5 day trailing NSIDC is handy as well then we have the monthly data & occasional trailing year data.  That's probably enough different timescales (certainly for me to get my head around).  I am sometimes worried that comparing todays data to historical "on this day" may be risky as there can be sudden jumps >100 occasionally which may skew the historical daily figs.


Sorry Tom - I dont think we should get into the perfection of predictions argument in this  data thread  though!  :(

23
The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: September 23, 2019, 10:43:43 AM »
Aluminium - though that is the measure of quantity of responses I am not sure that is the best indicator for the quality of the thread (or even level of engagement) - it may encourage too many off-topic posts or multiple (almost) identical posts - extra weather maps / speculation etc.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:09:12 PM »
Isn't that exactly why there is the NSIDC 5 day trailing average - to avoid the daily swings ??  I imagine there will have been a lot of thought into how many days makes the best curve i.e 3/4/5/6 days etc - to give sensible, but without either losing the irregularities or smoothing the data too much.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 02, 2019, 09:41:30 AM »
Is there a structural reason for the massive discrepancy of -10k from Juan G and - 73k NSIDC daily from Alphabet Hotel.  i.e one is yesterday vs today? 


In which case can we expect one to "catch up" tomorrow?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 28, 2019, 06:25:29 PM »
Gero:  ....and something very odd is going on.


Wondering what surprise(s) may be in store then.....

Dunno why it went tiny !!!

27
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 28, 2019, 12:29:20 PM »
Link for watching the somewhat bizarre final flight of the Starhopper.... 


https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starhopper-flawless-final-flight-second-try/

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 22, 2019, 06:17:15 AM »
PETM - What do left and right sides represent?  Thanks

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 19, 2019, 09:54:49 PM »
An interesting CNN video about Nasa's measuring of the sea water temperature profile around Greenland..... and what it warns us about sealevels.



https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/19/weather/greenland-nasa-climate-battle-intl/index.html

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 19, 2019, 04:08:00 PM »
Thanks Alphabet - where is this ?


31
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 18, 2019, 09:03:29 AM »
- Extent LOSS on this day 37 k, a variation of 2 k from the average gain of 35 k on this day.


Is that GAIN, 72k or loss ?


Thanks

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 12:50:43 PM »
petm    link=topic=2591.msg221918#msg221918 date=1565753660
Aug 7 - 13; 5-day min; click.



What years is this showing ??  Thanks

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 30, 2019, 01:33:56 PM »

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 24, 2019, 08:09:56 AM »
Oren - Barents sea volume graph seems to end at day 180 - is there a further data point ??


PS - Thanks for the great graphs !

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: July 10, 2019, 04:52:19 AM »

Jaxa 3.25 - 3.75    Medium
NSIDC 3.5 - 4     High

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: July 01, 2019, 07:09:25 AM »

Jim - it would be handy if the year was visible in a slightly shorter chart title - thanks.   Great illustrations BTW


May be my screen resolution but prior to clicking I just get: 
"The Main Northwest Passage Opens in Summer 2"

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2019, 06:48:06 AM »
KTB - I may have missed earlier messages - is your BOE  1m km2 or 0 km2 ? 


Why isn't 27 / 28th June showing as True where daily loss is albeit briefly > loss rate required for BOE ?

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 12:30:34 PM »
I recall asking a while a go and being told that they hoped to keep going and updating the late Slater's work - but I suspect it doesnt have the same personal touch / interest now.


39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« on: May 14, 2019, 09:34:42 AM »
On these polls (and other more serious ones  ;) )  would it be possible to put the actual result and/or winning categorie(s) on the header graph so later we can easily spot the result ?  Thanks


40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2019, 08:37:22 AM »
I thought we do well for holidays here in France - but that looks amazing!    Its 1st May and so its our giant charity book sale and spring bazaar today here so no holiday for me.   :)     Sorry for the OT post !

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 12, 2019, 08:32:54 AM »
... or how about dashed line(s) e.g 10 yr / 5y could be dashed ?   I wouldn't do last 5 dashed as they may be close.   Or earlier ones (pre 2000 / 2010 even) as faded colours / very fine lines.


42
Antarctica / Antarctic Expeditions
« on: February 11, 2019, 04:27:33 AM »
There doesn't seem to be separate topic for Antarctic expeditions - of which there have been quite a few recently.


Currently at least two major new ones -
A) Looking for Shackleton's ship in the Weddell sea &
B) the joint Thwaites investigation - multiyear project


We have also just had two one-man crossings of the Antarctic and the recycled Antarctic solar truck trip to the pole.


Links to current ones: https://weddellseaexpedition.org/
updates seem just in News section


and https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/international-thwaites-glacier-collaboration/
for updates: https://www.bas.ac.uk/media/latest-blogs/
 

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 01, 2019, 09:18:56 AM »
Thanks Wipneus for these - any chance of a version where the 2018 (and later 2019) can be seen maybe dashed / different colour / thickness as there are three with almost identical reds on my screen?    Many thanks.


44
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: January 21, 2019, 12:40:55 AM »
Thanks Fred for this - interesting articles - I assume / hope they will have some sort of live reporting (blog / diary) about activities which we can follow.  Scheduled to arrive late January and get started this season.


https://thwaitesglacier.org/news/mission-begins

45
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 20, 2019, 03:31:14 PM »
Ancestors = descendants I hope - if not that's really spooky  ;)

46
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: January 13, 2019, 01:08:17 AM »
An easier read on the subject:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/10/world/ocean-warming-faster/index.html

World's oceans absorbing 60% more heat than we thought, study says

The world's oceans are warming at an accelerated rate and are much warmer than scientists thought -- and things could get a lot worse if nothing is done to stop climate change, according to a new study.

The data, published in Thursday's edition of the journal Science, shows that the oceans have experienced consistent changes since the late 1950s and have gotten a lot warmer since the 1960s. The oceans are heating up much faster than scientists calculated in the UN assessment of climate change released in 2014. ..............

Paper referenced:
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/363/6423/128.full.pdf

47
Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: January 13, 2019, 12:32:43 AM »
Have found a map now - thanks to:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12189330


Looks like Nature has the original paper...
Update planned for 30th Jan is dependant on US gvt shutdown !!!

48
Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: January 12, 2019, 08:44:33 PM »
Not sure where this should go - but worth noting - looks like the Magnetic North Pole is sliding away from Canada / USA towards Russia.

I don't think this a DCMarvels superhero style achievement by some dastardly scientist / politician.....

"OSLO (Reuters) - Rapid shifts in the Earth’s north magnetic pole are forcing researchers to make an unprecedented early update to a model that helps navigation by ships, planes and submarines in the Arctic, scientists said.   
Compass needles point towards the north magnetic pole, a point which has crept unpredictably from the coast of northern Canada a century ago to the middle of the Arctic Ocean, moving towards Russia....... "


For a bit more (but no diagrams):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-science-north/shifting-north-magnetic-pole-forces-unprecedented-navigation-fix-idUSKCN1P51UE

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« on: January 01, 2019, 08:40:54 PM »
Yay - success at last !   Failed to change when I would / should have and amazingly 2-3 came good.

50
The rest / Seasons Greeting New Year 2019
« on: December 31, 2018, 01:35:11 PM »
Just a quick note to say Seasons Greetings & a Happy New Year and thanks to all at ASIF - especially the regular up-daters & commentators on the thawing/freezing/thawing global sea ice threads etc - and of course the keen-eyed observers that take the time to share their observations of the Nares, PIG and WAIS & other pinch points too...


I have done this as a separate thread to (hopefully) avoid clogging the others !

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