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Messages - Skier

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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: March 31, 2016, 08:58:01 AM »
There isn't an obvious place for posting about total Northern Hemisphere ice  but this seems as good as any since Greenland's ice dominates the hemisphere's ice.

I know that the loss of sea ice very directly affects the weather (and the climate) increasing wind speeds and energy and wave heights and energy and these effects are already with us in the Phillipines and more recently Fiji (200mph winds).

But as I have previously posted I think there is also merit in looking at the totality. As it were in another view different from the "just sea ice". It is at the other end of the spectrum: the "end" of the summer sea ice represents the "start" of the serious melting of Greenland. Neven's splendid blog now includes scientific reference to the mechanisms invoved.

Sea level rises from Greenland are presently quoted at .75mm pa (and those of Antartica .25mm pa). But if the rate of loss experienced by the sea ice transfers to Greenland 's ice the rate will imcrease to more like 2mm pa in a year or so incrementally when the summer sea ice is gone  and, I would imagine, rising fast thereafter.

Adding Greenland's more than 2,000 teratons of ice to those 11 remaing teratons of sea ice  in September 2003 shows the difference of scale between the two ice retentions. Of course global ice (incluing Antartica too would add another order of magnitude again). We are now on the slippery slope and it is a very long slope.

I think what you say is far fetched and highly inconsistent with the near monotonous sameness of total worldwide sea ice, as shown in the attached graph.

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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: March 31, 2016, 08:53:21 AM »
It is only a matter of time until Greenland lives up to its name ::)

Then we will have climate as the Norsemen had in 1000 AD when they were able to have permanent settlements in the tens of thousands of inhabitants with self-sustaining farming and cattle raising.  Enough so that the Church set up several dioceses.  They wouldn't have done this had these been non-permanent settlements like we now have in Antarctica.  Currently, Greenland imports all its food, so we know it's far less green than 1000 years ago by a long shot.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 31, 2016, 08:33:34 AM »
Second, your graph showing a downward slope is inconsistent with Cryosphere Today, which shows the 2016 high being reached March 30 and an upward slope.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Not really. The one I showed is sea ice extent from IJIS (JAXA or whatever it is called these days), the one you refere to is Sea Ice Area. And from Wipneus (see here) numbers we know that come thursday and friday - hence today and tomorrow - SIA will trop 124 and 137km^2 respektively. So, all of a sudden, the slope is steep down here as well. My conclusion: The slope doesn't tell us much. La tendenza รจ mobile. ;D
But whatever. Staying with the facts - as you have told others to do - should apply for all of us, dont' you think?
[/quote]

According to NOAA's chart, at March 23, prior to last week's sharp increase in total sea ice area, we were right at the 10 year average and now likely exceeds the average.  In addition the amount of 2016 sea ice was only 3% less than the 1980-2010 average for that day and the 10 year max for that day.  We are not talking about a cataclysmic drop in sea ice. 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 31, 2016, 08:09:30 AM »
You are talking about this slope here? Upwards indeed. Let's stick wiht the facts, shall we?

High snow packs?

I was merely referring JLadden's post about melting snow pushing sea ice out to sea.  If in fact snow pack is low, then the effect he references will be smaller than normal.

Second, your graph showing a downward slope is inconsistent with Cryosphere Today, which shows the 2016 high being reached March 30 and an upward slope.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 31, 2016, 08:00:05 AM »
Alright.  Looking at the arctic sea ice extent graph you'll notice that notwithstanding the fact that 2016 had the lowest high sea ice extent ever, it is still increasing later in the season than almost any previous year going back to 1979.  So I am looking at the slope which, while not steep is still positive, while almost every previous year had a negative slope by now.  Second, you mention high snow packs leading to high snow melt.  The enormous amount of heat energy required to melt snow will have a net cooling effect on the surrounding air, reducing the tendency of ice to melt this summer.  Late snows from El Nino will continue to increase snow pack leading to increased cooling due to latent heat of fusion of all that snow.
[/quote]

And furthermore, the aerosols emitted by the recent Alaska volcanic eruption will provide a cooling effect that, while not huge, can depress temperature, leading to a feedback loop of sorts that, together with increased snow melt, will cause a further drop in temperature.  In areas such as the Great Basin when there is no wind to stir up the air, melting snow, coupled with cool air, causes heat inversion, which causes unusually cooler air near the ground surface that can last weeks.  A drop in a few degrees can greatly raise relative humidity, creating greater cloud formation, sun reflection, and temperature drop. 

My point isn't that this must happen.  Only that it can happen and no one can predict it with certainty.  Again, there is no much uncertainty in predicting ice cap coverage that my guess is as good as yours.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 31, 2016, 07:50:06 AM »
Fair enough.  But I would not predict 2016 will see record low sea ice.  In fact, I predict it will be fairly average this year.  Time will tell.

Rather than just assert, I would suggest you present your evidence and argue your theory.  I'm sure people would be willing to evaluate it, and we all might learn something.

Alright.  Looking at the arctic sea ice extent graph you'll notice that notwithstanding the fact that 2016 had the lowest high sea ice extent ever, it is still increasing later in the season than almost any previous year going back to 1979.  So I am looking at the slope which, while not steep is still positive, while almost every previous year had a negative slope by now.  Second, you mention high snow packs leading to high snow melt.  The enormous amount of heat energy required to melt snow will have a net cooling effect on the surrounding air, reducing the tendency of ice to melt this summer.  Late snows from El Nino will continue to increase snow pack leading to increased cooling due to latent heat of fusion of all that snow.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 31, 2016, 07:31:37 AM »
That is insane.




But how do we explain that at day 88, the highest artic sea ice extent of the year was reached at 12.92136 million km2?  To maintain credibility we need to follow the facts and allow them to tell the story.
The timing really isn't particularly relevant, Skier, late or early.  +10C is still below freezing, and temperatures will remain cold enough to refreeze leads for weeks to come.

What is relevant and affected by those temperatures is...

* Ice Strength
* Ice thickness/volume
* Net ocean heat content
* Snow cover (on land, which will increase drainage outflow into the Arctic from watersheds, on
                     sea ice, to the extent that it reduced thickening or increases albedo)
* Total sea ice cover at max (which was over 1,000,000 KM2 *lower* than 2012's)

The consensus is, that how these have changed will accelerate the start of the melt season.  How much, is not yet certain.  Those are the facts, and they are telling the story.

Fair enough.  But I would not predict 2016 will see record low sea ice.  In fact, I predict it will be fairly average this year.  Time will tell.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 31, 2016, 07:26:10 AM »
BTW, here's the forecast Northeast flux:



In former winters this could have had big impact. Not so much anymore. It won't matter much. What's left of cold will spread to waste into NE Europe (and Quebec).

Just an opinion, but every year the colored temperature charts seem to get redder and darker red, as if there is sweltering temperatures at the north pole.  In fact, we'd all freeze to death out there.  Hell, I froze to death just the other day skiing in spring. 

I realize your chart is a pressure chart, but your selection of red coincides with the heat charts and is a bit much.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 31, 2016, 07:22:06 AM »
Neven: my first impression yesterday was that the DMI pic was a glitch but I soon realized it was real... However, the cracks in Laptev may be good news as the leads will refreeze quite quick.

In additon, ECMWFs most recent run suggest that we'll see a pattern change by the end of March with more cyclones moving into the Arctic. Interestingly, it seems like the Arctic also is cooling now.....  :o A little late IMO.
Unfortunately LMV, the optimism about lead refreeze is a bit of whistling in the dark I'm afraid.

At this juncture, we are unlikely to get 45 days of conditions sufficient for freezing, and that's probably generous.  Further, even with temperatures cold enough to get freezing, it will not be cold enough to get the ice thickened past 0.3 - 0.5M, again at best.

So, absolutely, too little, too late.

I will add, the monster of a high pressure system over the Western Arctic/Beaufort is terminal news for the MYI poised just north of Svalbard and the Fram.  Export will be high and we will almost no doubt lose more volume to export than we gain in lead refreeze.


News Flash:  Arctic sea ice has grown a lot since your post, reaching a season high at day 88 at 12.92136 million km2.  That's an increase of over 200,000 km2 since your bold statement.  I think prudence dictates not making unsound statements or predictions.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 31, 2016, 07:13:50 AM »
That is insane.




But how do we explain that at day 88, the highest artic sea ice extent of the year was reached at 12.92136 million km2?  To maintain credibility we need to follow the facts and allow them to tell the story.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 30, 2016, 08:29:33 AM »
Cryosphere Today shows an uptick in arctic ice extent.  Is now the highest of 2016 at 12.8993 on day 87.  So I guess ice is still growing?

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