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Messages - Eli81

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 18, 2019, 07:37:03 AM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.
Our condolences, Neven.
To everyone:

Surely it is a good time to remember that Neven has provided the Blog and Forum as a free service. He has been with the burden of the cost all these years. It will be great if we can give some moral but also some economic support this time. Your support and appreciation may be more important than the amount you choose to donate.

Donation Link (from "Support & Donate" on

Unfortunately, the PayPal link is personal to you and will not work for other people. Others who want to donate will have to click on the Support and Donate link themselves. Please do so.

Let's do this for Neven. I have donated €50($58).

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 02, 2019, 03:55:16 AM »
Sadly, it is going to be far before the year 9595 before we've taken everything this old Earth can give, at the rate we're going.

~10,000 years of industrial civilization is setting the bar pretty low, geologically speaking - and we're going to be lucky to make it to 1,000(the year ~2,850).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« on: April 27, 2019, 06:18:13 AM »
amsr2-uhh jaxa minimum dates, 2012-2018 for comparison.
thanks Oren

2016 really sticks out to me in that animation for some reason. I know the numbers didn't tell it, but it looks even more dramatic than 2012 to my untrained eye.

The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 05:02:08 AM »

Even if you are an Atheist, you have to admit the embryo is human. What else would it aardvark? And if you can kill a human because it is less than 9 months old, can you kill him/her because he/she is less than 6 years old? After all, such children do not think as sophisticatedly as us adults. Or should we use an IQ test where you have to score 100 or more? If that is too high, why not just 90? Or go up to 110 and just have smarter people. Where do you draw the line?

The whole point is that you don't get to tell women what to do with their bodies. Medical technology exists to safely terminate a pregnancy when it isn't wanted. This is an advance, good for society, fundamentally no different than the empowerment that came with hormone birth control.

Do prolife people really suggest we give human zygotes all the rights of a born human being - above the rights of the human responsible for its existence in the first place?

What happens when it divides into two or four cells? Do we then worship them as gods?  :o

The whole pro-life thing is just so utterly ridiculous. I agree with Viggy, we are doomed.


An interesting tidbit - there appears to be more snow in August now than there was in January last year.

I noticed this as well.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 14, 2018, 07:37:47 AM »
I used to see tent caterpillar webs everywhere here in the suburbs of Portland, Oregon when I was a kid.

There has definitely been a decline, around here at least....

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 07, 2018, 06:41:05 AM »
Just came across this - a small update on O-Buoy 14
"Hunters found OB-14 near Gates Head island in the west Victoria Straits while Polar Bear hunting recently (March 2018)"
There is a picture at the link -

And they didn't hit the reset button?!   :o :-\  >:(  :'(


Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: March 02, 2018, 02:35:19 AM »
Yeah, I've been checking several times a day for life since mid February... It's not looking good.. :( Admittedly, I don't know what the weather has been like at its location; up until a week ago I'd just been hoping it was extra cloudy this year...

Seems very possible that it's early abrupt silence at the beginning of October 2017 was more than just running out of light..

Very sad.. but I guess getting a 3rd year when the 2nd was an anomaly was indeed a lot to ask for. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: October 14, 2017, 02:31:44 PM »
It's going to be a long, dark winter.... :(

Here's to hoping our favorite buoy flickers to life come Spring 2018...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 12:48:26 PM »
Nice article by Eric Holthaus.

We knew this would happen, decades ago. We knew this would happen, and we didn’t care. Now is the time to say it as loudly as possible: Harvey is what climate change looks like. More specifically, Harvey is what climate change looks like in a world that has decided, over and over, that it doesn’t want to take climate change seriously.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Coastal Change
« on: August 24, 2017, 01:45:05 PM »
Watching with interest. :)

Curious if you ever find any archeological artifacts in those types of features.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 13, 2017, 05:37:03 AM »
Big jump in Slater's projection.... Now predicting 5.19m on August 31st.

Did his model just predict the melt season will end in August?  :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 17, 2017, 07:38:43 PM »
That's hilarious!

I was looking at the CO2 data for the buoy today and noticed that it spiked to 3kppm on the 15th. I was going to come joke that perhaps a polar bear visited our favorite buoy, but it doesn't appear to be much of a joke. :D

This is horrifying..... :'(

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 17, 2017, 10:54:47 PM »
Some interesting spikes to ~5C(!) today... Thinking it's anomalous, but humidity spikes at the same time...  Thoughts? Did some 'tropical' air blow through?  ;D

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: April 26, 2017, 09:24:18 AM »
It's been a few years since I heard about this, but weren't they originally supposed to be able to melt snow/ice via built in heaters?


They contain heating elements to prevent snow and ice accumulation.

I don't know if that means they actually need to be connected to the grid or what....

I don't know why exactly, but that caused me a good hearty laugh. I mean, if I were a denier, I would find that pretty hilarious.

We've got children at the helms of all of these important organizations who are out to play games.

It's like a scene from a bad movie. Except we're living it.

And the movie just started......

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: March 18, 2017, 06:03:24 AM »

Can you just provide me with century long statistics on their +/- error rate please?  I have no interest in happenstance at all.
This type of manufactured doubt is like a cancer that has infected our society, and it shouldn't be allowed to spread. Reading it here makes me furious.

You cannot just brush off two research papers with a single inane sentence and expect to be taken seriously. The papers have already been peer-reviewed and published, they speak for themselves. You're the one that made the claim, the onus is on you to show us how they're "happenstance".

It is painfully obvious that you do not know how a computer model of even the most simple of things actually works.

Does this guy only attack "climate" models? What about the thousands of other models that we use on a daily basis? Are they happenstance when right too? Disgusting.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: March 17, 2017, 05:56:24 AM »
The lithium banks are primary (non-rechargeable) batteries.

I'm thinking it's temperature related. The lithium bank is dead, but it's voltage will vary based on ambient temperature. Colder temperatures will lower cell voltages, and warmer temperatures will raise them.

Either that or it's due to bank loading - over the winter, the systems would have been trying to draw from the lithium bank, but as mentioned its dead, so the voltage would collapse rather than support any load. Now that the lead-acid is taking a charge, they're completely unloaded.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: March 15, 2017, 01:34:09 AM »
Woohoo! They have updated the movie. 2017 starts at about 14:10.

Sunset in the Arctic...

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: March 06, 2017, 10:26:28 PM »
Indeed, a nice stretch of operation - going on 5 days now. Being a battery person, you can actually "see" the cold temperatures in the battery voltage - peaking at 16V! That's a tad high for a lead acid. That will come down as the temperatures and therefor battery internal resistance drops.

Almost -50C last night again.

Does look quite chilly...

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: March 02, 2017, 04:37:48 AM »
Much less sun today, but what we got came late, so we were able to stay booted until about the same time as yesterday.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: March 01, 2017, 06:18:59 AM »
What are the chances the movie gets updated this year?

Someone should set up a script to download all of the pictures as they are uploaded. They may be lost otherwise? I would do it but I don't know how. I forgot to grab the last picture of the day last night, and am regretting it.

Getting some dusk action now, as the days lengthen and the batteries charge...

Pretty cold at the buoy, almost -50C.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 27, 2017, 02:36:02 AM »
Beautiful :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 15, 2017, 12:59:26 PM »
Oh yeah! I'd been hoping it would wake up again. The picture is particularly encouraging.

If the GPS location is correct then it looks like it's continued a little ways down the Parry Channel to the east during the winter. Looks like roughly 5 hours of daylight at that location today (, though it would be pretty low angle.

I'm curious about how the wake up process happens -- under what conditions the computer boots up, etc.

Probably pretty simple actually..  Power management ICs usually have "power good" signals. So, solar/battery voltage powers the solar charge controller and power management IC. When sun hits the panels, these aux systems come online again.

When the power has been good long enough(milliseconds to minutes?), it turns the SSR for the computer on. If voltage falls too low, it turns the computer off. Of course this is all just conjecture, there are probably a dozen ways you could do it, but it's pretty basic stuff. Obviously the goal is to avoid "brownout" conditions where the computer could malfunction, and also to provide some hysteresis. Without such a sceheme, it would be possible to get caught in a loop where there's enough power to boot up, but not maintain operation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: February 14, 2017, 04:36:49 PM »
Obuoy14's first image of the year:

Can't see much, but she's alive!

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 14, 2017, 11:08:40 AM »
That's amazing! I had been checking every day too, but didn't over the weekend. Happy to know it's still somewhat functional! Let's hope it stays that way, and we can look forward to some beautiful pictures this coming melt season.

Edit: It uploaded a picture too!

I think you can just make out the horizon through the ice on the lens...

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment
« on: February 12, 2017, 12:32:02 PM »
I've gotta stop reading these threads, it's unimaginably depressing....

It's going to be a long, dark four years....

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 12, 2017, 12:08:25 PM »
It looks like the ice really struggled to get anywhere during February of last year, just looking at the graph. Unless the current trend continues for the rest of the month, it seems probable that 2017 will lose the lowest spot - for a bit at least.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 13, 2016, 10:08:56 AM »
Regarding FDD graphs, I think both are relevant, just different ways of visualizing the same data.

It would probably be more intuitive for the uninitiated to see the Accumulated FDDs graph, and then the anomaly graph though.

If we're going for intuitive, might I also suggest that you perhaps spell FDD out in the title of your graph? I know it's clunky; I just noticed that when your graph got shared on twitter, nobody seemed to know what a FDD was.  ;D

Enjoying the regular updates to this important metric in any case. I concur with whoever said that this freeze season is just as exciting as the melt season, if not more so. The slow motion train wreck continues unabated, and we've got a front row seat...

Consequences / Re: Trump to eliminate climate change research.
« on: November 26, 2016, 05:43:38 AM »
I keep trying to comfort myself with thoughts of "Dubya wasn't that bad... the world continued on...".

But this just feels different. I do, of course, expect the world to continue on - but at what cost? We should have started the renewables journey 40 years ago.

The people he's putting into these offices of power are frankly nearly as frightening as Trump himself, but when you add them all together it's just downright petrifying. This Ebell guy may as well be our satan, The Anti-Earth.  :o

Jeff Sessons as Attorney General... And this Devos lady for education secretary...   ::) ??? :o :( >:(

Welcome to the United States of the Deep South.

Consequences / Re: Trump to eliminate climate change research.
« on: November 24, 2016, 09:59:24 AM »
Is there even such thing as "politicized science"? Isn't there just... science?

Ugh, it's going to be a long and dark 4 years. And if this clown gets 8 years? LOL.


Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: November 08, 2016, 10:57:17 AM »
I thought for sure it was going to crash when the Ozone instrument fired off today, but it managed to stay booted! Rather than being dead,  looks like perhaps the Ozone instruments schedule has been reduced to save battery power?

They need to update the movie...

Here's to hoping for some sun, if it still even rises there..

Edit 11/11/2016: And into the deep darkness of winter we slip..

I'll put down $20 that the Buoy does successfully wake up this coming spring, because damnit, I need something to be hopeful for right now. Do not know what the chances of that actually are though.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: October 13, 2016, 11:33:15 AM »
I'm very pleased to see that our favorite buoy is still functional and beaming beautiful pictures and data to us.

It looks as though the Ozone instrument has been on the fritz for a couple weeks, and now the CO2 instrument has joined it. This actually appears to be a good thing, as these are a very significant draw on the system; about 7W - more than everything else combined. Of course on the other hand the fact that instruments are failing is concerning...

The batteries are doing much better without these loads though. I'm hopeful we'll continue to see connectivity until the sun disappears entirely. As long as the AGM battery voltages stays above the Lithium battery voltage, the unit seems to stay booted....

Glaciers / Re: North Cascade glaciers Disastrous conditions
« on: June 07, 2016, 08:08:47 AM »
It angers and shocks me every time I think about it. It's just completely unbelievable....... And it's happening in Oregon, no less. I fear that this is just the tip of the proverbial ice berg as far as environmental atrocities go. They're just not being stopped fast enough, nobody cares or is even aware. Ugh. It just gives you that sinking "We are so, so screwed" feeling....

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 02, 2016, 01:45:26 AM »
What were you searching for then?

reveals both mine and Neven's on the first page.

I think Eli meant taking the data from the sat. and compiling it themselves as opposed to 'sharing' JAXA's image?

Yeah, sorry if I wasn't clear. I'm obviously aware of your and Neven's sites and visit them quite regularly. :) But the data wouldn't be considered independent, I don't think? I was also talking about raw numbers. The graphs are great, but it's hard to extract exact numbers from them.

I'm also aware of and follow Wipneus' updates, but I guess I'm foggy on how they compare to the numbers here, or how they should be compared?  :-[

Glaciers / Re: North Cascade glaciers Disastrous conditions
« on: June 01, 2016, 06:22:45 AM »
On the topic of the Cascades...

Timberline Lodge is a ski resort located on Mt Hood here in Oregon - apparently one of the few in the US that offer Summer skiing. I was utterly flabbergasted and floored to learn that due to the poor condition of the snow pack, they decided they would not be dumping some 500 tons of salt on the Palmer Glacier to "condition" it for summer skiing in 2015.

In the sense that, apparently, they have been doing this for the last 30 years...

Complete. Shock. I had no idea. And I bet almost nobody did/does.

It is utterly mind blowing and unacceptable that a private company, LEASING our public land in a cushy long standing arrangement with the Forest Service, can degrade our natural resources like this. In the midst of what amounts to a global glacier crisis, no less.

Our environmental regulators are locked in a catch-22. They have to be able to detect the pollution downriver, to be able to stop it. Of course, by that time the damage is already done..

I heard that India is putting blankets on some of their glaciers, to try and protect them. The US? Salt.

It's the American way.... :'(

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 01, 2016, 02:29:15 AM »
So apart from this outtage are there any other links to see extent in sq km per day

Im lost without these updates

Its like someone stole my sunshine

Seriously.. On the first night without updates I thought I was going to wear out my F5 key.

*twitch* Worse than caffeine withdrawals..  ;D

I've consulted the great Google with many different queries, only to find that there appear to be no independent mirrors of the data anywhere on the vast intarwebs. A scary prospect indeed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 28, 2016, 10:19:17 PM »
The exit to Fram doesn't seem to be too fast for the moment :

It is easier to see with the thickness map :
If anything it looks almost completely stalled, especially the last week or so... It's just sitting in the straight, melting...

Is that a good thing, or a bad thing?

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 28, 2016, 07:29:40 AM »
Lowest drop since 5/3. Brings the month to date average daily loss down to 61,565km2.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: May 27, 2016, 10:33:13 AM »
Thanks for posting, these are definitely things everyone should keep in mind. I think there is an element of excitement this year especially.

It should be understood that these types of "rules" aren't meant to censor. Each and every one of us has a personality, and that should be allowed to shine through in our comments - nobody expects you to be a robot, and its natural for humans to have conversations. Over time, friendships develop, etc.

Forums are really an amazing tool to share information, and our lives - even if just a little bit. Never before has humanity been able to socialize and discuss such important topics on such a scale. I'm quite sure it has and continues to have profound impacts on humanity. It's true that most people "dig in" when confronted with a reality they don't believe in or agree with, but there has also been tremendous enlightenment and education.

The rules shouldn't be set in stone; constant censorship will indeed scare people away. I'm sure Neven is quite aware of this. He does an excellent job of moderating here. Casual and laid back, just like any other member - with perhaps some gentle prodding here and there.  But will put his foot down when necessary, and that's exactly how it should be. Nobody should feel like they are walking on eggshells.  Feel free to talk and comment.. Just when you do it, try and post something relevant to the thread too. That's far better than not, at least. 

Also, this:

Made for another forum, but still relevant.   ;D

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 26, 2016, 09:41:48 AM »
I realize I'm a newbie here so I apologize in advance for barging in and scolding more established members. But I have been frequenting forums for 2 decades now, and have moderated on some of the largest on the internet.

In addition to considering whether readers of the forum would benefit from your comment before posting, I would also like to point out that posting multiple times in a row is generally against forum etiquette. If you have something additional to add and your post is still the last in a thread, edit your post. If you have multiple people to reply to, do it in a single post.

IMO, this is a bigger problem than long quotes, and it very well may make the natural chatter more tolerable - less noticeable. And scroll wheels around the world will thank you regardless. :)

PS: Abbott lives on. \m/

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 22, 2016, 02:13:48 AM »
Thanks for letting us know about the movie update;  fascinating to watch indeed.

I absolutely adore the O-Bouys; they very much satisfy my inner geek, with all the battery parameters, loads, etc. How much do they cost? Do I want to know?...

We need more of them. Lots more.

Has anyone ever thought about crowd funding them? I would love to have one of my own, sponsored by my company. I'm just a small mom and pop outfit, but maybe big corporations that are looking to have a green image would sponsor them more readily.

I guess their longevity is pretty poor? That's unfortunate. What is the longest lived one?

What exactly causes them to die? It seems that they tumble over and drown, even though they're designed to float? Is it a solvable engineering challenge - better stability perhaps? Or more waterproof, so they can just pop back up after being run over? That would probably increase costs significantly, I suppose..

Sorry, just thinking aloud here, but I think my newbie-ness shows through.  :-[ They just seem like such a valuable tool, and it's really depressing to see both that there have only ever been 15 deployed and only one appears alive...


So what do you propose doing about it?

Turning Arizona into a giant solar array would have a far higher chance of actually happening. So that.  ;D

With respect.... as jdallen says, it is very clear that you have absolutely no concept of the scales involved here.

Perhaps you're aware of our Herculean efforts to tame the Mississippi River, which at peak flow, represents 2% of the flow through the straight. By the way, that project has cost ~7 billion, and the upkeep of the structures is a constant uphill battle.

How exactly do you propose we tame the unfathomable forces behind the transport of 15.8 billion gallons of water per minute? With dredge? Seriously? That's 15 with nine zeroes behind it. You are vastly, vastly underestimating the power of water, the ocean and the harshness of the Arctic here...

We could probably do it - If all of humanity were to get behind the idea, and every nation that could were to pour money and resources into it. Manpower, equipment and money.

And we don't even know if it would work, nor the possible undesirable consequences. There is no way that this will ever happen.

That money and effort would be far better spent on 1) transitioning from fossil fuels or

2) More space exploration; Colonizing mars, etc.

We are well past the point of state change - in fact, it appears the state change happened way back in 1987  An ice free arctic is inevitable with CO2 at 400PPM and climbing, just a matter of when the new stable regime is reached. That doesn't mean we should give up the good fight, but this is not the solution.


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