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Messages - CameraMan

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Staying with 3.75 and 4.25

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 02:03:57 AM »
I would continue to assert that most of the ice is incapable of supporting substantial melt ponding and this is why it is less visible than previous years.

Thanks, that was rather my take as well.  Visible ponding is one sign of melt, but given the fragmented and loose state of so much ice, I wouldn't assume fewer ponds automatically signifies less melt.   We'll know soon enough.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 04:45:23 PM »
Based on what?  Not being argumentative, but wondering your metric for "surface melt".   

There's lots of melting happening.  Dispersion is keeping extent from looking terrible, but still about to pass 2016, and area and volume are ready to tank.

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My lawn dart comes in about 3.9 at the moment, so either 3.5-4 or 3.75-4.25.   Last year I went high.  The ice was in bad shape, weather didn't seem unusually conducive to melt.   This year I'm going low (3.5 - 4.0) as the ice is no better, and weather is worse.   We could still get a break, but there's no sign of it in sight.   

5
Going for the mid-June basket.   I think the fast ice will last a week or more, but not 3+   

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 28, 2018, 09:28:08 PM »
"Greenland had the strongest mass balance gain since 1972"
Perhaps you mean "surface mass gain"?  That's quite different, since it ignores the substantial loss through calving.  Net, Greenland is losing significant mass.

And I'm sorry for continuing a somewhat off-topic.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« on: August 12, 2018, 06:00:37 PM »
is that 3m ice?
Doesn't look to be.   Lots of rubble and some open water visible yesterday.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 06, 2018, 03:42:30 AM »
It's gonna be an interesting race betwern current CAB thickness, the "heat wave", and the looming September refreeze. I assume we'll be saved by the bell again, though not for long.

My thoughts as well.  Despite the differences from last year, both 2017 and 18 have brought us down to these levels without remarkable weather.   If that lasts a few more weeks, we'll end with unremarkable numbers, but with weak central ice and lots of (relatively) warm water.  In that state it's one GAC type event, strong El Nino, or a prolonged sunny heatwave to... yikes!

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I'm staying with 4-4.5   

Still expecting low 4s, barring some wild weather event which is always possible but unpredictable.

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Standing on 4 - 4.5

I think the ice is in worse shape than June extent numbers might suggest, and distribution and impending weather are setting up for a cliff.   I dearly hope I'm wrong.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2018, 05:33:58 AM »
Interesting, ice extent in 2018 is barely lower than 2001 and 2005 on 30-06-18.
Which says more about the limitations of extent as a meaningful gauge of overall ice condition going into summer than it does about this year vs others.  Consider where the ice is, condition, and likely weather ahead -- I wouldn't make too much of daily numbers, especially extent.   

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 25, 2018, 12:30:56 AM »
Beaufort melt is beginning to lag badly. My guess is much of the MYI will survive.

Building east wind in the week ahead, and temps well above freezing.  My guess is that the lag is temporary, but as Nevin said, we'll see how it plays out.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« on: April 14, 2018, 12:37:21 AM »
Ah, the hazy crystal ball.   Following trends, I'd guess late 20s to mid 30s, but temps have been rising, and broken up ice is easier to melt, so I'm going with 22-24.  Of course a couple seasons of unusual weather could toss that in either direction.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 10, 2017, 05:29:52 AM »
Comparative animation Arctic 2012/2017.

Interesting, thanks for that!  Rough impression, this year isn't so dispersed on the pacific side, but still thin.  Above CAA might be a bit better than 2012, but yikes, the Atlantic side looks awful.

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The land snow cover has so clearly delayed melt in ESS and Laptev, and I guess all the warmth coming from Eurasia will lack some punch during the summer. That is a very important factor.

Agreed, but delay is not avoidance.   ESS and Kara look to take a hit this week, and given how thin much of the ice is, I'm thinking much will melt out by Sept, even with a late start.   Extent hasn't shown the drops yet, but more "ice" is becoming rubble and slush.

So I'm also guessing 3.5 - 4   Hoping that I'm wrong and more survives.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 Year end IJIS Extent predictions
« on: November 25, 2016, 06:06:49 AM »
i'm seeing it about like Oran -- 11.9 is my guess atm.   Of course things have been so strange, nothing would surprise me now.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 09, 2016, 02:30:54 PM »
Doesn't it seem five days too early to talk about end of the melting season, at least?

I agree.  I think we'll see localized freezing, but haven't reached minimum yet. Melting is still going on, and with the current ice distribution and SSTs, melt may win out for another week.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 23, 2016, 10:41:48 PM »
As we have seen recently, these large area drops in the middle of the pack do not mean the ice is gone, just that its top is wet/ponded. In a couple of days some of these drops might be reversed.

Look at today's satellite photos.  Those aren't just melt ponds.  The ice is broken up with patches of open water.  It's not gone, but not looking healthy.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 26, 2016, 03:50:31 PM »
This appears to be happening,

You called it.  Wide open now.
Nothing to impede further transport once the wind picks up.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 16, 2016, 01:35:29 AM »
This appears to be happening,

It sure does.

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