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Messages - timallard

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1
In reply to not damming the Straits, the planet needs a cold-forcing, this project provides one in the Eastern Arctic of enough cold to turn warm, moist surface air north bringing rain to Anchorage, then cools and can only go south over land which cools quickly to freeze oranges in Florida.

This circulation will continue whenever The Blob forms in the Gulf of Alaska, with this in place it'll turn this air-mass east into

2
Consider this proposal is the only one using existing engineering & materials to prevent a continuing loss of sea ice with zero chance of natural cold forcings to occur strong enough to matter in the Eastern Arctic where it matters most.

Damming the Straits of Gibraltar is on the table a $275B project in 1200ft of water, this is 165ft.

During the 2007 minimum extent the gain in ocean heat was 95,000-terawatt-hours above the 1980-2000 average.

If we close all steam plants 250Mwh & above it removes 36,000-twh of waste-heat.

Doing nothing insures a runaway greenhousing in the Arctic the methane plume has grown and reported values climbing.

For electricity please consider permanent magnet motors for base-load megawatt-hours has zero emissions, no fuel, very low waste-heat and no water per Mwh ...

If anyone is truly into trying one single project with the greatest possible positive effects to alter an accelerating runaway condition, this project stands alone and it's not a engineering challenge versus anything else in the public venue.

As an independent designer long into coastal structures with recent work on tsunami attenuation systems instead of seawalls, all I can do is the work, I can't finance this or it'd be half done now with some ice polders hanging on all year that were easy ones.

Just sayin', this isn't a Three Rivers Dam, it's a weir dam, constant flow not closed.

3
Beluga migration was a primary concern and the choice of a weir dam allows all sea mammals to swim through, it's not a solid wall dam. The shipping lanes are where you control freshwater flow still coming north. Walrus use sea ice to drift them north, hard with no ice the shipping lanes intend to provide them with the sea ice transport.

Keep in mind today islanders don't have a winter airport at times, the ice breaking up and moving even in winter.

We need to establish global cold forcings, this is a unique geographic chance to do this if in time. When the 2007 minimum extent happened the estimate of heat gained over the 1980-2000 average was 95,000-terawatt-hours that year, to shut down the waste-heat of all steam plants removes 36,000-twh/yr, see the problem of allowing sea ice to go?

We need actions that install cold forcings on a global scale not dependent upon emissions reductions or controls, they simply won't act fast enough with albedo loss warming the deeper water, a  critical runaway greenhouse factor in the Arctic via methane clathrate releases.

A geotechnical engineering solution to refreeze methane plumes is part of this solution using the same methods as poldering for sustaining sea ice all year.

This post is 2-years old, we're at 490-ppm CO2eq, warm moist air in winter now blocking west.to.east flow, air is being warmed from the sea surface always churning warm water up thus forming a wedge under the cold air mass severing the shear normally holding a connection by the less dense air caught below it.

Thus cold air can only reach lower latitudes in winter over land, 5-Amazon's of volume flow north through the straits, without turning off that flow the system continues towards runaway.

I feel we did pass a warm ocean tipping point for winter atmospheric circulation, we need to do anything looking reasonable such as painting roofs white in the tropics, it's a simple idea with terawatts of cold forcing the return.

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: September 29, 2017, 10:33:09 PM »
Consider the oceans are acidifying 10-times faster than a geologic land extinction, that is to say the aragonite buffer that provides a way to adjust pH during volcanic episodes is totally blown away and we are dissolving seashells as a result.

Adding about 40-gigatons of CO2 yearly is beyond "capture and storage" we must end the emissions to do anything meaningful in that regard, frozen that's 40-cubic kilometers of gas, you can't sequester it in strata or the deep oceans it poisons everything it touches.

The PETM killed off the land animals with hydrogen sulfide when the benthos went anaerobic, stratified to allow pink-purple bacteria to take over, these are found in the Black Sea today due to the sill stratifying it.

Dumping that CO2 into the benthos avoids having to heat the oceans to kill off the land animals, it will cause a benthic extinction folks, how stupid an idea, eh?

Please recognize also that steam power is 40% thermally efficient, 1-Joule = 1/3watt on the wire + 2/3joules of waste-heat that directly heats the planet.

My solution is wastewater biodiesel, purifying the effluent at sewage treatment plants using algae gains recycled water and more biodiesel than we burn in joules for transportation all fuels.

The advantage is removing the CO2 before you burn it, and for sewage treatment it avoids using chemicals to clean the water and replaces that cost with revenue from biodiesel production.

There is nothing else humans can use, fracking is creating a heating spike on top of putting up 100-ppm in 100-years, after the Wisconsin maximum about the fastest CO2 rose was 1-ppm/180-years, we're at 3-ppm since 2016, only 540-times faster, eh? Fossil methane is 100-times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2 for about a decade, and, about 90% of the lifetime emissions from a wellhead are when they put it in.

So, all those fracking wells are spiking the heating, great idea to continue being in the Steam Age in 2017, eh?

Get real, study your geophysics, paleo-oceanography and paleontology or watch it burn baby, we've fully initiated runaway greenhousing at this time.

We're so lame ...


5

Thesis: That cold air is prevented from traveling in west-to-east Rossby style jetstream flow during winter by the warm oceans disrupting such and warming the air which turns north.

Observing wind and temperatures on earth.nullschool.net has shown below freezing air cannot exist long over the oceans and to reach low latitudes it can only move south over land, the continents and not over the sea.

Then, the warmer oceans have large-scale bound vortices, cyclones & anti-cyclones that work together in the North Pacific to move warm moist air northeast where it cools, dries then circulates south over land.

These prevent the Holocene jetstream from forming, no longer is there a procession of storms tied to a cold, dense jetstream that migrates eastward across North America in Rossby wave flow, that's disrupted.

Watching this winter in the Seattle area where cold northerlies dominated and temperatures stay below 50F/10C for weeks and this cold has persisted to create the expectation that it could continue and be the new normal for global atmospheric circulations.

So the thesis is that cold air cannot create Rossby wave flow due to the ocean heat disallowing transit at Holocene latitudes and cold only reaching low latitudes over land during winter and possibly all year; posting here for others to consider and comment.

Background: From about the last decade the jetstream took to looking like a goat's head at times and couldn't penetrate the west coast sending most flow back north over the blockage that my thinking was from it being warmer thus less dense to manage getting over the mountains with a persistent high-pressure over the midwest and central USA.

Today: The cold air from East Siberia, a northwesterly hits the Bering Sea and turns right back north aided by a persistent cyclone over the eastern Bering Sea that's quasi-stationary, fading & reappearing along with a bound cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska and typically an anti-cyclone off the Oregon-California latitudes.

These have one side over warm ocean the other cold land, significantly they can be defined as bound votexes by the heat-transfer of warm-moist air north and cold south exclusively over land what's being observed.

This implies weather is now being driven by the ocean heat, not polar cold circulating in a jetstream driving cyclonic storms tied to a Rossby wave progression west-to-east.

Tentative Conclusion:  Weather in the northern hemisphere is now being driven from the bottom of the atmosphere up, not a cold polar circulation forcing its way south using a high-density stream of air.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: December 25, 2016, 05:26:05 PM »
Yeah, it stalled again ...

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: December 25, 2016, 04:13:39 AM »
From recent work the AOC is about 15-sverdrup with 3 going into the Arctic Basin on the Asian side, since warm water is the most likely suspect consider the Pacific water is some 0.8-0.9 sverdrup an input of 30-Twh/year in heat and hydraulically pulls in about an equal amount to compensate as a closed circulation, the basin empties to the Atlantic ccw to influx.

Reducing the Pacific water inflow reduces Atlantic inflow with such evidence it seems it's mandatory, nullschool is still showing waves in the Chukchi Sea ice or not it's allowing waves to record, to me that's incredible heat flow evidence.

Suggest reducing flow through Bering Straits by 1/100th in climate models, add year-round ice in the straits, then polder all of the Chukchi Sea next stage and last stage 1/2 the Bering Sea at the drop off.

Model that for jetstream flow it should turn the Hawaii flow eastward sooner as a cold-forcing the thesis of how it will alter global flow, a key indicator that California gets more moisture in the models.

If models validate the concept as worthy we must create a sea-ice refuge there somehow to forestall what's going on with the warmer, fresher water that this year is pretty obviously too warm with storm winds to allow a normal freeze-up the thought.

8
Recent summary wording: A solution to slow down accelerating Arctic warming and to forestall the inevitable is damming Bering Straits to 1/100 its volume flow to create a year-round sea-ice refuge.

To do this using modified Dutch levee & dam methods for deeper water learning and refining the machines & technique by raising and restoring villages being lost.

When ready to then build a weir dam & shipping locks at St. Lawrence Island, then with reduced flow to build ice-polders protecting sections to allow the bottom to refreeze, that allowing the chance to remain all year in some areas.

Then to build atolls around the methane flares to refreeze them, this may be fairly fast as the bubbles create an up-flow pulling in colder water at the sides all winter.

Using the ice-polders and larger areas calmed by levee sections and shoals to then corral and sustain ice much longer if not year-round in half the Bering Sea, all of the Chukchi Sea and extend into the Beaufort on the Alaska side, to levee & shoal the entire Arctic Basin the goal.

It's time to get serious and try to stop the early melt-out by the ice each spring to-sea from the shoreline.

It's all heat-transfer physics doing this water is 13-times better at holding heat than air, we must stall and pond the runoff from permafrost melting inland until 2070 then it slows down, all the glaciers in Alaska and globally are gone by then for being late-season water supplies.

The reduction in volume into the Arctic Basin reduces the volume of warmer Atlantic water drawn in to just under 1-sverdrup of 3-sverdrup coming a 30% reduction, the North Atlantic Overturning Current is about 15-sverdrups [1-sverdrup = 1-million cubic-meters/second].

This counters the Gulf Stream disruption of the AOC by 30%, not trivial, and prevents 30-Terawatt-hours a year of heat coming in as fresher water staying on top melting ice from below to 300-Gigawatt-hours/year of heat, these facts why it can have a large effect globally.

All it takes is recognition of this needing to be done, and, emission reductions are too slow to matter now to the accelerating feedbacks including ocean acidification.

Finally, to close a loop I want to ship the brine from California's new desalination plants to Alaskan waters to dispense there to counter acidification, a fairly new shellfish farm can't grow 4-5 months of the year ...

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 21, 2016, 03:14:22 AM »
Consider this thesis for a cause of the stall being that the ice-state is generally now, "rotten ice", including what's left of multi-year ice such that a ship hardly need slow down.

The APL-UW cored rotten ice last fall: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gD2Dki8VFPk]"Assessing the Habitability and Physical Structure of Rotting First-year Arctic Sea Ice "; APL-UW; 6:38; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gD2Dki8VFPk[/url]

They also found that a warm water layer was about 20m down and mixed up during a storm: "ARCTIC SEA STATE; Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean"; mainly in the Beaufort; APL-UW; 5:13; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDmM5zsxd4E?

First speaker describes conditions in the Beaufort Sea; "Café Scientifique - Arctic Sea Ice: A Slippery Slope?"; with other speakers; 1:32:27;

This implies the heat-gain of ice-loss is taking much longer in fall to reverse if it can at all, today's albedo-loss is worth 25-years of USA power compared to the 1980-2010 sea-ice cover, about 3,800-TeraJoule-hours/yr for USA power = 95,000-Twh a year in energy in the water in fall more than melt-out.

Looks like a Last Hurrah to a bluewater event isn't many years distant.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: October 30, 2016, 12:08:55 PM »
Anybody know if the numbers here are accurate?
http://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2016/oct/17/ticker-mega-composter-santa-ysabel/#
Quote
This is all about regenerative agriculture and carbon farming in San Diego County," said Kevin Muno, a cattle rancher and owner of the 80-acre Montado Farms, introducing the project. "By spreading a half-inch of compost on rangeland, we're able to sequester a ton of carbon per hectare [roughly 2.5 acres], increase grass growth by 40 to 60 percent, and reduce water use by three times....
Muno's statement was referring to the findings of the Marin Carbon Project, which has been studying the effects of composting on two rangeland sites in Northern California for nearly a decade.
http://www.marincarbonproject.org/home

Certain lands respond well to grazing, others don't, with fencing humans forced ecosystems to change usually degrading the land with erosion.

Once there soils lack organics to hold moisture then to gain soil communities that transform minerals to forms plants can absorb raw dirt doesn't do that and why people use fertilizers ... which work to a degree yet not fully compared to healthy, rich soils  for max 'nutrition' in the plants as food for people our guts work the same way.

This is a best reference I've found so far for most ranchers & planners to read free online, have the book: http://quiviracoalition.org/Publications/Publications_for_Download/index.html

We must exit the Steam Age for electrons, most grid power is for thermal end-use 80%, not electricity 20%, so to switch will only take 5-years moving to solar-HVAC, maybe 2-months if it was a war, don't tell.

I like Dr. Hansen's solution of a "carbon fee" that takes the money from the polluters and distributes it to all citizens equally,  they spend it -->> the economy grows.

End subsidies, tax loopholes and this time they pay double taxes being criminal in their choices, eh? ... then put that capital into real solutions not putting it off another 30-years the slogans we're hearing are the same, oh it'll take 30-years to switch to fossil, it's a racket not a "service".

11
<snip most of it>

http://www.ipacoa.org/Explorer
Click on the little stick men with a green ball between their legs

 You can watch real time data streams from several aquaculture facilities that live stream alkalinity, pH, and aragonite saturation.

Bruce thanks for the kudos and the stick men ...  :)

That calls for another good one I found yesterday, an interactive on dipoles and other molecules to pull them apart and watch them drift back: http://mw.concord.org/nextgen/#interactives

Then another recent flash was California and others going full-on for desalinization and I want to set up a delivery system for their waste salts to put back in the ocean to raise alkalinity. A shellfish hatchery went in and they are losing 4-5 months a year already to there runoff freshening the water more than upwelling.

"ARCUS D.C. Arctic Research Seminar Series - 31 March 2016";55:33;

We must do things at scale or those fisheries are gone within 60-years.

Then, I do have a thread on ARS to dam Bering Straits to create a sea-ice refuge to hold ice all year. Briefly it's Dutch methods revised for deeper water, learning & refining the idea by restoring and raising the villages being lost to erosion until ready.

Then to build a weir dam at St. Lawrence Island with the locks for shipping east end to fit with sea-mammal migrations and with levees & artificial shoals keep the freshwater & shipping near shore, eventually for the entire Arctic Ocean to prevent early melt-out to-sea.

With the dam in restricting Pacific water to 1/100th the volume and the 30-Twh/year in heat transport it brought in to put in ice-polders to quiet the water and current to refreeze the bottom.

If that works to take back over the Chukchi and at least half the Bering Sea with them.

And, to build atolls around the large methane flares growing in the shallow continental shelf areas to refreeze those, they may freeze fast from the bubbles creating an up current pulling colder water down around the sides.

As a geophysical solution having a cold forcing globally from it being in the Arctic not tied to emissions to work, it makes thermal sense to try.

It hasn't been modeled my dime yet do have a conference with Cray first week in December to discuss it as a final goal starting with a hovering propeller design with a very new flow regime it's tiny and "cheap" for them to optimize it to gain funding.

If that works it pays for the rest, cheers!

12
The issue is rate-of-change, the slogan "carbon budget" is like "manifest destiny" and the genocide this time global.

Rate-of-change has today put all of the Beaufort Sea at the aragonite saturation point and all Alaskan water will be below that within 60-years good bye fisheries, eh?

The Miocene was warmer & CO2 higher than the Pliocene that was warmer & CO2 higher than the Quaternary's ice-ages that didn't occur before the final step when the Isthmus of Panama filling allowed geophysically for them to happen

The Southern Ocean opening up preceding this gave Antarctica the beginnings of an ice-sheet.

That was say 2.5-million years ago & the initial "ice-age" was a cooling, the first ones until about 1.5-Mya on the 41k cycle when the 100k Milankovich cycle began having effects.

So, during the last half of the Pleistocene CO2 didn't go above 305±5-ppm that 3 interglacials back, 320k-years ago, our interglacial ends in ~1,500-years the planet on a cooling trend before emissions changed that. [people.clas.ufl.edu/jetc/files/Tzedakis-et-al-2012.pdf]

We passed 305-ppm close to 1916, we're close to 405-ppm so emitted a "glacial cycle" in a century for rate-of-change which is the issue; textbook variation for the Pleistocene 180-280 = 100-ppm: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

This is acidifying the oceans heavily to effect phytoplankton, the basis of the oceanic food-chain : "The rate of acidification is 10-times faster or more than anything we have seen for the past 50-million years and perhaps over the last 300-million years."
ICES ASC 2013  Plenary Lecture, 9:10 into 1:01:08;

Now consider the wisdom of charging a CARBON FEE, not a tax the huge difference is the money goes equally to society to spend as it wants this time not what Team Oligarch wants to fake doing something about the emissions with the money, eh?

We must exit the Steam Age for electrons, most grid power is for thermal end-use 80%, not electricity 20%, so to switch will only take 5-years moving to solar-HVAC+hot-water, maybe 2-months if it was a war, don't tell ?


13
Policy and solutions / Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« on: October 27, 2016, 08:07:03 PM »
While it is easy to identify the short-comings of decision makers with regards to climate change inaction; the following articles indicate that smaller groups and individuals share responsibility for our collective inaction:
<snip some>
Extract: "A tax on carbon pollution faces surprising opposition.

Some environmental groups and social justice advocates are fighting a proposed emissions tax in Washington."

Consider that the ability for mass-murdoc-media to lie on science and turn it into a "madhouse" was intentional and doesn't happen in Canada, they have a law putting CEO's in jail for that, their Team Oligarch players have tried several times to remove or degrade the law and so far have failed.

Seeing them ready to put in a LNG port in pristine salmon-wildlife habitat, having not given First Nations their voices for a dam and port they having no permits continue "preparation work" similar to the North Dakota pipeline scene only there directly violating these laws on ancient remains being disturbed:

1906, Antiquities Act: It protects all historic and prehistoric sites on Federal lands and prohibits excavation or destruction of such antiquities unless a permit (Antiquities Permit) is obtained from the Secretary of the department which has the jurisdiction over those lands.

1966, National Historic Preservation Act: This act supplements the provisions of the Antiquities Act of 1906. The law makes it illegal to destroy, excavate or remove information from Federal or Indian lands any archeological resources without a permit from the land manager.

1990, Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act (NAGPRA): This act assigns ownership and control of Native American cultural items, human remains, and associated funerary objects to Native Americans. It also establishes requirements for the treatment of Native American human remains and sacred or cultural objects found on Federal land.

Then, consider that "carbon budget" is a sales slogan like "manifest destiny" in view of rate-of-change having put up 100-ppm C in 100-years, a carbon bomb that put the planet on the edge of a "carbon excursion" that a term from paleontology.

This video defining why 25% of emissions stay in the atmosphere over 10,000-years with us returning to 400-ppm in about 200,000-years: Emiliani Lecture: AGU 2012 Fall Mtg; "No Future Without a Past 'or' History will Teach us Nothing"; Dr. Richard Zeebe, Univ.of Hawaii; 52:57;

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 21, 2016, 01:37:42 AM »

Looks below this day for all previous years just showing 2007,2011, 2015 & this year.

Greenland shows a big jump in mass for the SE up to 2015 an above average year: http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

15
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: October 16, 2016, 12:18:37 AM »
The major lacking to Paris exposed to me is the need is to not hit 2C and the oceans are very close 1.6-1.7C above pre-industrial, we have jumped CO2 100-ppm in 100-years, that's a full swing of CO2 for a glacial-to-interglacial cycle of 100,000-years in a century.

We must end the Steam Age for electrons a major need not done or reduced it's gained.

For 2015 we added 3.05-ppm that's about 37-Gigatons CO2-eqv, frozen it's 37 cubic-km's of gas, 25% of it stays for over 10,000-years in the atmosphere, Catch-22 on CO2.

The idea to sequester that much CO2 a year will shatter strata to earthquakes along with acid poisoning from the CO2 touching groundwater or aquifers.

Dumped into the sea it's likely to cause a benthic extinction, it may take 3-years worth.

That's rather immature and delusional geophysically speaking, it's the same problem with nuclear waste, eh?

End the Steam-Age for electrons, 80% of grid power is for thermal end uses those switching to active solar-HVAC means ending the grid will take less than 5-years having only 20% of the demand to keep it in business, if it was a war maybe 2-months.

It's simply faster, cheaper and easier removing those from the grid by using onsite thermal collection & storage having zero emissions, far less copper and concrete-n-steel as carbon-footprint and doesn't go down in a big storm.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: October 16, 2016, 12:09:07 AM »
For 2015 we did 37-Gigatons CO2-eqv, frozen it's 37 cubic-km's of gas, 25% of it stays for over 10,000-years in the atmosphere, Catch-22 on CO2.

The idea to sequester that much CO2 a year will shatter strata to earthquakes along with acid poisoning from the CO2 touching groundwater or aquifers, Kansas joined the real estate boom in earthquake properties lately, prices are falling by the minute.

Dumped into the sea that much in a year bets will cause a benthic extinction, maybe it'll take 3-years?

That's rather immature and delusional geophysically speaking, it's the same problem with nuclear waste, eh?

End the Steam-Age for electrons, 80% of grid power is for thermal end uses move that to active-solar-HVAC, poof gone and who needs a new power plant?

Thus ending the grid will take less than 5-years, if it was a war maybe 2-months.

It's simply faster, cheaper and easier removing those from the grid by using onsite thermal collection & storage having zero emissions, far less copper and concrete-n-steel as carbon-footprint and doesn't go down in a big storm.

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewables Reach a Tipping Point...
« on: October 16, 2016, 12:00:21 AM »
The progress in storage is great, yet architecture is missing the thermal boat, my first passive-solar was 1980 that home has yet to have a heating bill, for existing homes you use active-solar, collectors & storage that plug into standard ductwork to store HVAC needs and get that off the grid.

We must exit the Steam Age for electrons, most grid power is for thermal end-uses 80%, not electricity 20%, so to switch will only take 5-years moving to solar-HVAC, maybe 2-months if it was a war but don't tell.

"1st Grid-Scale Tesla Powerpacks In Europe Installed By UK-Based Camborne Energy Storage"; http://cleantechnica.com/2016/09/22/1st-grid-scale-tesla-powerpacks-europe-installed-uk-based-camborne-energy-storage/

"SoCal utility will buy 80MWh of battery storage from Tesla after methane leak"; http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/09/socal-utility-will-buy-80mwh-of-battery-storage-from-tesla-after-methane-leak/

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: October 11, 2016, 10:37:12 PM »
The change in refreeze rate and extent is 3-days ahead of 2011 what this year seemed to follow since spring and 4 behind 2007, quite noticeably altering rate, warm water?

Screenshot just now:


19
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: September 26, 2016, 06:03:21 PM »
Will world leader actually get a handle on the global surge for air conditioning and refrigeration?

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/100-countries-phase-out-hfcs-20725

Extract: "CFCs have been routinely replaced by HFCs, which trap thousands of times more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere than carbon dioxide.
Their growing use in developing countries could mean they account for nearly 20 percent of all emissions by 2050. The replacement of HFCs could prove crucial if the world is to avoid dangerous runaway climate change, driven by a temperature rise of 2°C or more.
>>snip
Consider architecture is relatively easy to add-on a thermal-mass storage to existing buildings to store HVAC needs from concentrating-collectors, or, as now seen in some panels a thermal built-in.

Doing this removes about 80% of grid demand on hot or freezing days if universal ... my first passive-solar home I helped build 1980 still has zero need for heat-cold externally supplied.

Stupid of AIA to drop that ball when at that time a big move was on to convert to clean energy and thermal systems, millions of homes would be off-grid, the energy companies colluded, connived and bribed their way to stop that they are vile people.

The other little known radical change easy to do is insulate from the outside of walls, it reduces conduction, this is a heat-transfer model run of 6.7-hrs 20C delta-T standard wall shows a ton of heat loss.

With 1-1/2" of insulation board added onto the sheathing with 1/2" ripped plywood furring strips to keep condensation from soaking the siding loses only 1/4-1/3 the heat. Doing this costs about what a mid-range siding job costs for 1-1/2" board.

The time needed to move substations to wind-solar-storage and go off-grid without changing architecture will take less than 5-years it's only batteries, inverters, panels & small Dabiri array windmills, 2-months if a war, ymmv.

"John Dabiri: Opportunities and Challenges for Next-Generation Wind Energy"; 25:13;


20
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: September 25, 2016, 01:19:12 AM »

Our global problem is like this, a glacial cycle takes about 100,000-years and CO2 varies from 180-280-ppm, 100-ppm.

So during all those ice-ages the maximum highest ever CO2 was 305±5-ppm, ok, we passed that about 1916 and since then added a full 100-ppm.

The full variation of a glacial cycle in only 100-years and it's all above the highest value ever reached in a million years.

This was humanity's Pandora's Box, fossil fuels.


My solution for the short-term is to dam Bering Straits to create a sea-ice refuge while it's still cold enough: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.0.html

21
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: September 24, 2016, 03:14:18 PM »

Our global problem is like this, a glacial cycle takes about 100,000-years and CO2 varies from 180-280-ppm, 100-ppm.

So during all those ice-ages the maximum highest ever CO2 was 305±5-ppm, ok, we passed that about 1916 and since then added a full 100-ppm.

The full variation of a glacial cycle in only 100-years and it's all above the highest value ever reached in a million years.

This was humanity's Pandora's Box, there is no "carbon budget" left, what a vile joke to think we can add more.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 08, 2016, 05:12:47 PM »
Quote
You can see a lot today on Worldview.

That is some CRAPPY looking ice...
Yeah, it's a new type, was cored by APL-UW last fall the official name is "rotten ice", full of holes, channels, dirt & algae barely strong enough to core.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 06, 2016, 08:02:48 AM »
2016 mapped to 2011 well until recently, now looks to be going to less than 2007, if you show-all it's outside them all except for 2012 ... http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

24

Read the paper I posted on the refreeze thread. It has interesting comments on the effect of damming the strait.
Thanks, I found a couple of comments so consider that this post is for proof-of-methods & strategies to reduce the risk of creating a monster, yet the straits have only been open briefly by proportion it stays land most of a glacial-interglacial cycle, opening 12k-ybp this reduces most doubts for negative on effects on wildlife and all, latest evidence is that the megafauna and Clovis Culture were wiped out by a broken up asteroid not climate or people, this ~12,900-ybp.

Seeing the immediate need to prevent villages going away it's a best way to test it all to learn how to do the big deal, if we can defend against erosion first by directing sediments to do the job with cladded artificial shoals that would show a lot of savvy, then it's being based on valid thinking and a refined method to get results.

To me the greater risk is losing what's left of the sea-ice, the analogy I found is what's been lost over the 1980-2010 extent is worth about 25-years of energy for the USA, ~3,800-Twh x 25 = 95,000-Twh/year.

Globally the steam thermal plants emit about 36,000-Twh/year in heat-pollution, waste-heat to soils, the air & water used for cooling and that's only 38% of the heat gain then add in the portion that's re-radiated back so far as context.

If the straits were still frozen right now except near shore where the shipping & sea-mammal pathways are, then what's your opinion of the idea? Would that be worth the risks?

25
Erosion control projects are going to be used to learn and refine the levee building methods at first for shoaling, using the shoals to direct sediment transport to intentionally fill in areas that are then cladded for longevity, the island protected by added land that can include raising it for sea-level rise at the same time the conveyors are placing at the shore.


26
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: September 01, 2016, 07:58:41 PM »
Being naive I started a thread on damming Bering Strait here on ARS forums as a geo-technical coastal civil engineering project to create a sea-ice refuge there, the point was heat-transfer, that led to realizing a way to refreeze the bottom, that led to refreezing seabed methane flares as goals.

This will have a global thermal cooling effect is the reason to do it so it's geoengineering, my post here just to get people to think of other strategies than energy regulation or sequestering CO2, a summary and thoughts below if you have the time:

The northerly current carries 30-Twh/year of heat through the Straits, the water fresher stays at the surface causing basal melting all the way to the Beaufort and aids early melt-out and late freeze-up.

The dam reduces flow 1/100th providing nutrient flow a confined current north using levees and a lock system for shipping and sea-mammal migration paths that hug the shoreline keeping the more acidic, fresher water there.

This uses Dutch dam & levee methods modified for deeper water and dredge-n-place also changed to operate in the conditions.

Part of the goals are creating ice-polders to provide calm water and refreeze the bottom and if they work then taking on the larger problem of seabed methane flares to build atolls around them and refreeze them the need, one in the Laptev Sea called a megaflare and clearing the ice above it early.

This kind of "geoengineering" doesn't rely on reducing emissions to work, imagine if this area was the last to melt and first to freeze what effect it would have on the situation in the Beaufort.

Another problem is guiding freshwater into the Canadian Archipelago closely to shore thus not expanding out into the Beaufort, and, westward same principle to forestall melt-out from the shoreline using levees.

Then, with acidification a big problem I found a use for desalinization salt production from California or other large-volume sources to add alkali to water by dispensing those salts at key locations. ARCUS reports all Alaskan waters are below the aragonite saturation state within 60-years, the Beaufort already at unity.

To maintain fisheries beyond that point means planning how to do it, and that takes money, the bathymetric, geologic, biologic and current, temp, salinity needs a standard full-model to use, Museum of the North has a report by Inuit Masters on their expertise very relevant to keeping sea-mammals happy with the design.

It's a big project, to test the levee construction methods the plan is restoring villages on islands or land being lost to wave erosion in the area, raising them as well for what's needed related to sea-level rise.

The method for these is mainly installing artificial shoals to alter sediment transport, so over time that fills in where you want and the seaward side gets then levee fill to above sea-level to slab wind-driven ice and cladded.

With this method ironed out somewhat to then evolve a production method and more detailed planning for the weir dam it's installed, then the ice-polders.

It's a different strategy than most energy-regulation to fill the real need to stop early melt-out, late freeze-up in Bering Straits where it started.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 23, 2016, 08:26:35 PM »
if that becomes true that could split the ice like an ax a log of wood.
WUT

( just if ) wind direction and 3-5 meter waves entering that narrows at full force
DOUBLE WUT
This may relate to what happens, a fall storm began making ice so teams deployed buoys to capture events, next day the ice had gone in spite of temps & winds!! ... a warm layer 20m down likely mixed to the surface from the waves;

Applied Physics Lab, Unv. of Washington; "ARCTIC SEA STATE; Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean"; late October; APL-UW; 5:13; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDmM5zsxd4E?

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 23, 2016, 06:09:38 PM »
What this means for season end????

A quick refreeze which keeps the warmth in the water. Also a weak, irregular, prefractured surface of the ice cover prone to early breakup next year. Maybe even stealth bottom melt for months to go?
RE: Fracturing at freeze-up this recent video shows patterns that likely are from wavelength at freeze-up about 35-seconds in; "NASA Measuring Sea Ice at the Peak of Melt"; August 19, 2016; 1:10;

29
Again....What do you get through the West side if you Damm the East side completely off???
Oh, apology I did state total flow if you block one side you get 850,000-m³/s through the other, that's the total flow through the straits and average velocity is just under 1/2-knot.

[edit] I found this video today showing that bowheads traditionally use the eastern channel at St. Lawrence Island ; "Arctic Currents: A Year in the Life of the Bowhead Whale"; 24:03'



30
If you dammed the East side of the island completely off how fast would the flow increase through the channel on the West side of the island??
Total flow is 0.8-0.9 sverdrup (1-sverdrup = 10^6 m^3/second), the head-height is 1/2m, by confining flow this goes up and guesstimating velocity that's just under 1/2-knot goes up by 1/10-3/10 of a knot, the channel on that side is deeper than the western channel and most current today flows through it. The arrows are current speed today, I modified them to fake what they'd be with the dam.


For this project the weir dam takes the increased height and holds it, only allowing 1/100th the flow through, it's about 200-Yukons down to 2-Yukon rivers worth of volume ballpark from the Anadyr side as that's the main source of fishery nutrients.

31
So bridging the 100km gap between the island and both land masses with a damn and making the space 2/3 more narrow could get you 20 knots there... A 20 mile wide current of 20knots sounds like a lot of electrical power could be generated there.....
For flow volume context, right now the head-height of the Pacific is 1/2m driving the flow below surface currents where it's a little under 1/2-knot overall yet a high volume 5-Amazons, and, putting turbine blades too near the surface means slabbing can damage them the practicality.

The second concern is by 2070 all glacial and much of the surface permafrost thaw runoff will fade to only watershed hydrology so the high runoff of the next decades is done and the head-height will be reduced to seasonal river flows.

Thus the power from the dam is constrained to sub-surface currents to provide a consistent capacity designed to the assumed long-term flow with extra turbines in the meantime that can be removed later.

The last factor is that tidal and storm currents are intermittent so require storage to really be useful and easy to add to a mini-grid or grid, the below-surface flow is very consistent 24x7 for power, the flow velocity can be increased using the gap between turbines on each side of a slit.

I'm into small windmills, 2kw in pairs and have a design I called the Alaska Mill made from used pipe or rebar and able to take any storm that happens, icing shouldn't matter ... right now I don't have a shop, will test them on Mt. Rainier as demo's for replacing solar panels at cabins as windmills put out the wattage vs panels.

For anyone in AK off-grid this is the theory & info on the small windmills, he has installs in AK, the lead of the research; "John Dabiri | Opportunities and Challenges for Next-Generation Wind Energy"; 25:13;



32
5 to 8 knots with a nice size venturi could get you 20 knots..
How fast does the tide rip between the islands there?
Surface currents & bad seas from storm winds and tides colliding can sink a boat with pretty nasty, fast rips & eddies for sure.

Yet, overall flow through the Straits is just under 1/2-knot, the volume is 0.8-0.9 x 10^6-m^3/sec with a 1/2-m head-height that creates it, the surface does get 5-8 knots in places on most tides afaik from dock talk never been there.<snip>
No doubt you can get 20-knots, it doesn't happen with a weir dam and ice-polders in place, it can't get that much current and it can't eddy due to the big bell shape, there's a lot to that shape to deal with Pacific swells, stacking-slabbing ice and not allowing strong currents.

A major goal is to refreeze the bottom north of the dam, it has to be -2C/28F water to do that with that much current there'd be too much mixing, "ice-polders" are levees to confine areas in fetch against storm winds to do this physically.

The same idea applied somewhat offshore of the Inuit villages getting eroded away would prevent any waves hitting shore and the inshore area would refreeze to the bottom to reverse the thawing permafrost below sea-level.


33
How fast does the tide rip between the islands there?
Surface currents & bad seas from storm winds and tides colliding can sink a boat with pretty nasty, fast rips & eddies for sure.

Yet, overall flow through the Straits is just under 1/2-knot, the volume is 0.8-0.9 x 10^6-m^3/sec with a 1/2-m head-height that creates it, the surface does get 5-8 knots in places on most tides afaik from dock talk never been there.

There is a big vortex off the SE end of St. Lawrence Island that restricts flow northward from the Alaskan Continental Current as-is, today, and most of the nutrients come from the Anadyr current so the main flow right now is through the NW side where the weir dam location is to let mainly high nutrient water through to the Chukchi fishery.

The big curve of the weir dam is to deal with swells entering from the south and have the volume let through dispersed for least current flow below the surface. Levees and ice-polders will confine areas north of the dam to keep the sea-ice from being broken up in the winds,.

Part of the location is that there will be no ocean swells getting through the dam, consider then north of it to be far easier to divide up to preserve the ice to still-water in order to refreeze the bottom. This process creates a progressive cold sink that should help to sustain the permafrost.


34
Need to combine both technologies like ocean tunnels do..
Why not use the heat energy and kinetic energy in the water to make electricity as it flows passed the Damn?
This is part of the plan for the main weir dam, the flow is used by vertical-axis turbines on each side of a slit in the dam that's always open to flow allowing sea-life passage, also adjustment horizontally to vary flow, and the turbines can move to well below the surface to avoid slabbing damage.

The power being generated is created by freshwater flow, keep that in mind as this will only reduce after 2070 by the latest models after that the head-height of 1/2-meter that can go up until about 2050 will only become far less within 85-years, this applies to any existing or proposed dam which of course have a huge carbon-footprint to build and very negative ecological damage.

The is the best talk on the streamflow reductions to expect: "World-Wide Glacier Wastage - Implications for Sea-Level and Streamflow"; 44:06; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxSNCsmQHy8

The levees are for shipping and to be freshwater pathways that will be intentionally directed to where it mixes in the Arctic Basin to cause the least damage to sea-ice, that water is also acidic so keeping the seawater from mixing to extend fisheries part of planning right now.

This is really important around the Mackenzie Delta which melts offshore early and large into the Beaufort to channel that natural flow more east close to shore and not let the flow push it to sea as far.

The simple idea of a sea-ice refuge has a new goal of extending fisheries as long as possible in the way it allows shipping.

The construction technique can be used to save all of the Inuit villages on eroding islands, it's really too easy to watch them wash away for spite I guess, the world owes it to them, making them pay for the work when they are losing a sustainable lifestyle and a pound of chicken meat is $100 ...

Anyway tunneling is useful, I'm considering using portable sections to convey the dredgings to the placement without raising it to the surface, the "tunnel conveyor" keeps the sediment fines from blowing all over on the way so have sketches of that.

35
Why not use the heat energy and kinetic energy in the water to make electricity as it flows passed the Damn?
This is part of the plan for the main weir dam, the flow is used by vertical-axis turbines on each side of a slit in the dam that's always open to flow allowing sea-life passage, also adjustment horizontally to vary flow, and the turbines can move to well below the surface to avoid slabbing damage.

The power being generated is created by freshwater flow, keep that in mind as this will only reduce after 2070 by the latest models after that the head-height of 1/2-meter that can go up until about 2050 will only become far less within 85-years, this applies to any existing or proposed dam which of course have a huge carbon-footprint to build and very negative ecological damage.

The is the best talk on the streamflow reductions to expect: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxSNCsmQHy8] "World-Wide Glacier Wastage - Implications for Sea-Level and Streamflow"; 44:06; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxSNCsmQHy8
[/url]

36
Does the idea create enough electrical power to replace ALL fossil fuel and nuclear fuel energy?
No way, yet it should pay for a lot of the costs of the dam and levees over time.

Let me put all global steam power in context thermally, I got general figures and the global steam plants put out about 18,000-Terawatt-hours/year and the thing with steam is that it takes 2-Joules of heat to get a Watt on-the-wire, it's very lossy thermally.

So that means you burn twice the energy you get and what's lost heats the planet directly the same as albedo-loss does, this heat goes to the water used to cool, the soils & air and that's 36,000-Twh/year a huge amount of waste heat that must ended.

For this project I'm trying to prevent 10-Tw/winter, 20-Tw/summer continuous entry from melting ice to compare to.

The damming of rivers fed by glacial runoffs ends in all practicality by 2070 so investing in hydro in Alaska has doubts beyond that making them now questionable to put in concrete-n-steel with their high carbon-footprint just to get electrons when we can use that same carbon-footprint to have solar-wind-storage that can replace them and steam plants.

It's far better for fisheries and sustainable living to support long-term needs and leave the rivers to flood and recharge groundwater as that makes dryland farming possible in many areas where if you put in a dam you have to pump to farm flood terraces and that takes power so why do it that way?

This happened all over the American west where the big dams went in and the riverine habitat is the most productive of anything in semi-arid lands so it's a big deal.

For Alaska this link is to a talk of model studies showing future river volume for all major watersheds with a focus on Alaska; "World-Wide Glacier Wastage - Implications for Sea-Level and Streamflow"; 44:06;

37
Recent post to Climate Think Tank, hopefully considered, it got 91% so the topic stays above 90% so far:
https://www.postwaves.com/posts/5328597626/heat-flow-destroying-arctic-sea-ice-methane-megaflares-a-mitigation-strategy

38
<snip>
The video has a more direct route.. http://videos.howstuffworks.com/discovery/36674-mega-engineering-building-a-transcontinental-tunnel-video.htm
Tunneling is way more expensive than dredge-n-fill ... just sayin' a lot of things are possible, yet, if you want to make ice-polders anyway railroad or not, it's not as much ROI for the $$$ & effort a way to look at it.

This is thermal mitigation before it's all gone too far and the big jump in albedo-loss happens, this is to forestall that moment by creating an ice refuge, to prevent storm driven ice from clearing out so early to construct ice-polders, large areas to seed a larger change in ice retention and aging in the Beaufort.

From latest thoughts it looks possible to extend the North Atlantic ice-edge south by having the eastern basin stay in ice longer but people here more able to assess that.

This project is to create an ice refuge, it has to disrupt things, from that experience to go after methane flares, anything else is frosting.

39

  The more you restrict the flow the more flow you would get. That is how a venturi works...
The dam isn't at the actual straits due to being way harder to close because of that, the other that became more important was needing to supply nutrients best with the remaining flow, both led to moving it south to St. Lawrence Island where the flow on the NW side comes the Anadyr current with the best supply of nutrients for the Chukchi Sea.

The other end doesn't get such good water for what you want to let through, and, the clincher was having the border for shipping and fit into the dam for canals using the nutrient rich water to lock with.

Regardless, the straits are the best route for the railroad-roadway to then be in a core of relatively still ice that doesn't raft onto land much where bottom-freezing conditions are the goal among the ice-polders.

Then, how a weir dam works is controlled porosity at a very low head-height, by limiting flow you create the dam. While the volume is huge in head-height it's only 1/2m. For generating power this implies using a design not based on head-height! ... not easy the weir dam allows distributing power to many small generators for the flow let through. With 200-Yukon rivers through there as-is and I want to let 2-Yukons through is the deal.

The whiteout version ... staying in shallower water and enclosing a deeper canyon system, all this needs discussion with the Inuit on where they want sustainable harvest to attach the dam to the island, this version is using the inflow as a feeding station to the calmer waters the weir shape gives to the ice.

It can be a polynya or iced over with snow for seals by controlling flow and back eddies on the north shore of the island, there are choices like this for habitat construction of differing types to make choices on, estuaries for bird migrations are relatively easy.

The biological team is very important to these decisions with the Tribes, they have a chance at a rich sustainable culture for a while again with this project, by 2070 all these waters will be below the aragonite saturation omega of 1, from a recent ARCUS video; :“Using An Environmental Intelligence Framework to Evaluate the Impacts of Ocean Acidification in the Arctic”; 55:32;




40

[/quote] It would be a great way to power this project... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/03/26/russia-reportedly-wants-to-build-a-mega-road-and-rail-link-from-europe-to-america/
[/quote]
It's a century-old idea, for sea-ice survival, better to have a railroad & highway to me than shipping, that's like having a storm create a big lead yet now it's a permanent weakness helping to degrade what's there.

To create ice-polders around the islands the railway-roadway fits on the west side of the islands trapping runoff to use for the locks for the next 50-years or so then there won't be much flow through there is the caveat on generating power from ice-fed streams for the planet.

The is a talk on that with a global view to glacial water versus hydro power on what the models show and the constraints with a focus on Alaska's situation; "World-Wide Glacier Wastage - Implications for Sea-Level and Streamflow "; 44:06;

Because of this the weir dam construction is intended to be done so most of the long-lasting hardware can be removed and used elsewhere. Preserving the sea-ice is aided by the form and the railroad-roadway the traditional route near the narrow part of the straits.

To last the dams must handle 15m/50ft of sea-level rise, we must think like this or forget it. Putting in the foundation is where all the mass of the dam is going, raising it that much is trivial versus not planning it in and raising a railroad later.

41
Great idea about damming the strait but while you do that you can also make electricity with the current and the ocean heat to kill two birds with one rock... See Underwater Suspension Tunnels post..
Exactly, the weir dam is one giant hydro-generator to help pay for it all, vertical-axis non-damaging blades to salmon & sea-mammals.

The weir is now on the NW side of St. Lawrence Island to let in the Anadyr current, it has the most nutrients so cutting down the other flows makes more sense.

I have new graphics almost done on revisions ...

42
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« on: June 22, 2016, 06:38:50 AM »
Sigmetnow

Is the  European Environment Agency data cause for much optimism? The graph in that linked Climate Home article shows that carbon emissions have fallen at a rate of less than 1% a year over recent 24 years.

After updating IPCC's remaining carbon budget, I have calculated the rates at which carbon emissions must fall to make these budgets last until the second half of the century. The calculation is in Is Green Growth a fantasy?

(The remaining carbon budgets are the IPCC figures divided by the number of people in the world.)

Quote
Postscript 28 April 2016

Updates for the remaining carbon budgets

More than a year has passed since Carbon Brief’s calculation in November 2014. So reducing the carbon budgets by emissions since then (7 tonnes CO2) gives

The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 1.5˚C is now… 26 tonnes CO2 per person.
This requires a yearly rate of decarbonisation of 15%

The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 2.0˚C is now… 108 tonnes CO2 per person.
This requires a yearly rate of decarbonisation of 4%

(The following needs checking….)

However, these budgets are too high because this only accounts for the effects of CO2 and do not take account of other greenhouse gasses. The World Resources Institute says:

“one can argue for an even smaller budget and additional emissions constraints because non-CO2 gases are not included in 1 trillion tonne C figure. For example, short-lived greenhouse gases, such as methane, are not included in – nor necessarily appropriate for – the 1 trillion tonne C budget approach because they play a secondary role in influencing long-term warming.
<snip>

Is decreasing carbon emissions by even 4% without cutting  world GDP possible?

P.S. I'd be pleased with any corrections.

This is a big zombie, "For example, short-lived greenhouse gases, such as methane, are not included in – nor necessarily appropriate for – the 1 trillion tonne C budget approach because they play a secondary role in influencing long-term warming.".

CH4 is 100-times more potent for 1-2 decades what's converted turns to CO2 so doesn't disappear!!!

The remaining in the sky whatever is very long-term thousands of years as CO2 does and at 1-century later it's 23-times more potent often quoted at 25-times more potent.

It's like saying "clean coal", or that "natural gas" is a "transition" fuel when the pipelines and city infrastructure reeks of methane to the point of a health hazard not to mention mysterious total demolition of homes or businesses.

The CARVE program identified this kind of emission profile above tundra, we can't turn that off easy, eh?

Society must leave the Steam-Age or it's game-over.


43
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 22, 2016, 06:24:11 AM »
todays view is similar to the 19th but temperature is warmer, I'd call it -1oC
wind has increased to 10m/s is that a sign of the coming cylone?
Newbie to the datasets, do these buoys measure LWIR specifically or a broadband recording you slice? ... my focus LWIR versus optical & humidity properties vs incident clear values vs melt response, don't know the sensors used seems to matter in home thermal tools my thought.


44
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: June 21, 2016, 09:36:23 PM »

Actually aircraft are horrible direct polluters of the stratosphere injecting CO2 there is instant forcing, if you burn something on the ground it has to migrate up that takes a while.


Pathetic nonsense, sorry to be that rough, but just have a glimpse at atmospheric physics basics, before you rant around here and think you can teach others about the world.

Quote
Also, shipping and aircraft weren't regulated by Paris being needed by the cross-borders-for-slave-labor system of profit-making, so we blow by 2C/3.6F like a glance out the window on the freeway.
Aircraft should be limited to low-elevation flying only, biodiesel from algae made from wastewater effluent humanity has megatons of it not cooking oil thank you, passenger onlym emergency freight & medical flights.
Or is getting that gizmo in overnight delivery too compelling and just forget the gesture why bother it's another false-flag feel-good does-nothing stall is all?

Sorry, what?
And your point was that you didn't understand the reason to not allow aircraft into the stratosphere for a lot of reasons one of them the exhaust is going to spread from there as the source?

I don't get your response at all, if you have a genuine critique open to that, my issue is with the "get it tomorrow" international air-freight business is a huge polluter for-profit $$$ that has no cultural excuse for the collective carbon excursion we're causing geologically using them for that purpose.

Tell us about the physics of CO2 removal from the upper atmosphere and how fast you can accomplish removing the aircraft contribution using fossil fuels, thanks.

45
Heat Transport Currents, the Pacific water moves eastward and flows through the archipelago with an influx from the Atlantic:


Then, compare to a color-replaced temperature from the same area today I used orange to highlight the slight difference to where temps were colder more toward the pole under thicker ice


This to me shows the areal extent of Pacific water that does stay near the surface with the warmth ending east of Baffin Island showing itself with a temperature signature through the thinning ice.

That looks like where open water exists early and stays late so a result of albedo-loss creating a thermal-mass of the ocean that degrades the ice. It also points to a rapid retreat to the demarcation when conditions are ripe for the entire basin.

[source nullschool screenshots]

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: June 21, 2016, 11:36:11 AM »
Europe's Favorite Online Bike Seller Comes to the Land of Bike Shops
Quote
Remember the last time you bought a bike? Doesn't matter if that happened last week or for your 10th birthday, the experience in the U.S. hasn't changed all that much since the days of the Wright brothers: Walk into your nearest shop, test ride one of the few options in stock, walk out an hour later with a new bike and perhaps a helmet. The role of dealers, much as in the auto industry, hasn't been affected by the explosion of online shopping.

In Europe, however, one company has been doing things differently. Canyon has ditched the dealer model, in which a local bike shop commits to a mass order from a manufacturer and spends the rest of the year desperately trying to sell them all, in favor of selling to consumers over the internet. The company's performance-oriented bikes, sold at relatively low prices, aren't available anywhere else.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/europe-s-favorite-online-bike-seller-comes-to-the-land-of-bike-shops
Reactions:

Bikes shops, good ones are there to fit the right bike to the person's abilities, what they want to use it for & budget, if you buy it online you don't have a person sizing it all up asking questions and doing on-the-bike fitting, maybe switch-outs of stem, basics like saddle-height & important things such as adjusting cleats on pedals for how they pedal bio-mechanically or inserts for people with unequal legs and so on.

That's how you sell local and endure as a bike shop not big box, the good ones do provide a service, if you know what fits & all online is fine, I can say getting fit properly is worth more to a rider than lighter stuff, and, custom frames are needed by many riders the off-the-shelf proportions don't always work.

My body doesn't fit OTS frames, short torso, long arms I suffered stiff necks and all for many years until my first custom frame ended that, I need a lot of pedal overlap on the front wheel that OTS frame mfg's don't want to do for general ridership can't blame them, yet, I rode track so willing to have it built and it was magic !

Also, there's a lot of mfg considerations for what is a seasonal industry now doing in-season releases that are really follow-ups of what becomes popular that year. Still, it's based upon the bike shows getting pre-orders to make initial supply-chain order volumes with lead-time to make them to arrive in spring, if you're doing low-volume high-priced bikes that's not the same business plan as small biz retail-service brick-n-mortar.

47
Sent an email to NSIDC requesting info on albedo and they sent a nice paper with a wide variety, more than posted above, sharing; 16-page pdf: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 109, C08007, doi:10.1029/2003JC001989, 2004, "Hydraulic controls of summer Arctic pack ice albedo", H. Eicken et al.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: June 20, 2016, 02:26:10 AM »
I really dont think that NASA idea will fly.
Getting the airlines to use bio generated fuels or a mixture will be much more probable and cost effective. 
Also there are much bigger fish to fry than the airline industry.....

Actually aircraft are horrible direct polluters of the stratosphere injecting CO2 there is instant forcing, if you burn something on the ground it has to migrate up that takes a while.

Also, shipping and aircraft weren't regulated by Paris being needed by the cross-borders-for-slave-labor system of profit-making, so we blow by 2C/3.6F like a glance out the window on the freeway.

Aircraft should be limited to low-elevation flying only, biodiesel from algae made from wastewater effluent humanity has megatons of it not cooking oil thank you, passenger onlym emergency freight & medical flights.

Or is getting that gizmo in overnight delivery too compelling and just forget the gesture why bother it's another false-flag feel-good does-nothing stall is all?

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 20, 2016, 02:14:01 AM »
<snip>
Several commenters here (me included) have noted that warm conditions which lead to melting are often observed at Obuoys when the images show cloud or fog.
We should try to make these observations more systematic than a hunch based on anectotal memory.
I will try to post images  coinciding with satellite overpasses to also relate observations on the ground with the view from MODIS.
<snip>

A reaction, the fog & clouds make sense they capture LWIR, add in that much moisture it'll hold heat to make it more effective at melting.

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Policy and solutions / Re: Renewables Reach a Tipping Point...
« on: June 19, 2016, 05:42:32 AM »
Solar panels more efficient on water in Japan
Quote
Developers first placed solar panels on water years ago to address land-based space constraints. Now, they’re finding floating plants may be more efficient.

In a year-long study in Hyogo prefecture north of Osaka, solar panels installed on a reservoir generated 14 percent more power than those set up on the rooftop of an office building, according to the local authorities who conducted the review.

“Water keeps panels cool,” said Hajime Mori, the head of operations in Japan for Ciel et Terre International SAS, a French company involved in many floating-solar projects around the world. That cooling effect allows the units to work more efficiently than modules on traditional mounts, which tend to heat up in the sun.
...
In China, the developer Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd. has completed a 20-megawatt solar farm in Huainan City about 300 miles northwest of Shanghai the Anhui Province. That project, which Xinyi calls the world’s largest floating PV plant, is located on a body of water created from subsided land over a coal mine.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/more-spark-from-the-sun-spurs-floating-solar-plants-across-japan
To cool the panels if one installs them in an air-tight shallow box to move air for that and use the heat a thermal-mass to supply space-heating [and cooling to collect at night].

One company has panels that use a thermal-fluid pricey yet feeds a heat-pump so an integrated system my idea works for any new install and uses standard 3-1/4x10 ducting.

The point is direct-thermal collection & storage are missing from architecture, the Hogan is 10-times more thermally efficient than a modern home similar for the Great Prairie sod house.

If you add a layer of soil-contact foam it isolates the dirt contained as thermal-mass instead of slowly conducting heat all the time. Insulating from the outside is 3-4 times less heat-loss than a standard wood frame construction from greatly reducing conduction.

This is the heat-transfer model run 6.67-hrs standard wall above additional 1-1/2" insulation board under the siding with furring strips to let condensation drip away on top of the sheathing, white 20C/68F, blue 0C/32F, this cuts losses to 1/3 original.

Think what that does to heating & AC grid loads no longer needing to supply that energy when scaled up.


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