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Messages - VeliAlbertKallio

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2020, 04:53:36 AM »
2020-2021 freezing season is important to observe because of high peripheral seas sunlight intake. What happens now will be in more extreme form next year if similar melt year is being repeated with ice recovery lacklustre and delayed. 2021-2022 melt season has already been predicted as potential repeat with jet streams locked by the end of 2021 to the latitude of the Gibraltar Strait. Expect delayed freezing much stronger with strong storms in Arctic with vast bigger lake-snow effect. Beasts of east to wipe across Northern and Central Europe, with unusual monsoon and wind patterns to be seen in Asia further south. Particularly interesting feature being the heavy rains to Morocco, Algeria, Spain, Portugal, south France. The Central Arctic Basin may make first moves towards central (polar) hole with re-freezing inversion from the periphery towards the centre of the Arctic Ocean (depending how much ice left on the pole).

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 08:32:50 AM »
If the snow cover were as good negative feedback, then Ewing-Donne lake snow would rule also on land: the climate would progressively cool and end up in the ice ages. That didn't happen, snow is not driver for cooling but a respondent (although on land decomposition of biomaterials is a fundamental difference). Sea ice without snow leaks heat out best and thickens for the following summer as a result. Any cooling effect is volatile and biased towards onset of the spring rather than end of season.

Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation for the last 72 hours and the next five days.

All that snow is gonna insulate the ice from freezing, isn't it? Will this become another positive feedback loop? More open water means more snow, means more open water and even more snow next year?
Not necessarily. Overabundance of snow accumulation until sprint (50 cm or more) is also a melting season quencher and a wonderful negative feedback (‘13 ‘14 post 2012 and ‘17 post 2016, iirc).
The snow insulation effect works both ways, and snow is a wonderful reflector persisting perhaps until July.

So this winter let it snow, let it snow, let it snow, and we won’t need to worry for 2021.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 06, 2020, 02:29:46 AM »
I see the general trend being Arctic Ocean's open periphery warming sea open for longer, then when cooling it releases moisture that transports latent heat in the form of rain and snowfall to the High Arctic. The early autumns become balmy, but the mid-winter to early spring becomes bitterly cold. The reason for above is the loss of heat transfer as sources of open ocean freeze over, the supply of peripheral ocean lake-snow latent heat transfer effect (Maurice Ewing - William Donn Lake Snow Effect [E-D] of the Arctic Ocean) runs out of steam. The Central Arctic sea ice now being insulated by ever thickening winter snow blankets push the thinner and more insulated ice floes to sit deeper in the ocean, this inhibits their thickening. On the periphery, the improved insulation of the Central Arctic Ocean has a significant later winter cooling effect, which then helps thin ice cover to spread out to cause increasing sea ice area of very thin ice. (A harbinger of this may have appeared this winter, 2019-2020, with its higher sea ice area and mid winter coldness.) The E-D effect may be either area neutral, or area growth positive, overall effect being more fragile ice that is well insulated by thick snow. Thus overall the sea ice areas would become much more variable at the very end of Arctic Sea Ice. Then the cliff edge falls very fast and the ocean flips to increasingly stormy blue ocean which tries, but cannot properly reform sea ice, most likely the Central Arctic pumping heat now inversely to the ocean's periphery. New very volatile and fragile ice shelves can then easily form on the north Canadian coast from extreme pack ice and extreme volumes of Ewing-Donn lake snow effect 500-700mm precipitation. Unlike their pre-Milutin Milanković Ewing-Donne theory of 1950's, the warmed permafrost still remains capable to melt away land snow pile-up from winter-time E-D lake snow effect; spring floods then kicking the new seasons earlier with transport of more warm water in rivers.

In my curiosity of when the minimum might be, and if it might be later, I did a simple linear regression of the NSIDC 5 Day Extent numbers.

It showed a trend towards the minimum occurring later in the year BUT it appears to be mostly driven by there being less early minimums than there being any later minimums.  The lack of insolation seems to put a pretty firm cap on how late the minimum can be. I would hazard to guess this will remain true until a BOE occurs.  Also, given a standard deviation of almost 5 days this doesn't help much at all (ugh, weather :P).

See also this thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3183.0.html

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:01:56 PM »
NSIDC 14-day sea ice extent reduction (due to melting and sea ice floe pulverisation) has been -64,000km2 per day if 85,000 km2 solitary 28.8. spreading event is eliminated from the series. Lesser scattering events may occur but these then will lead to further fragmenting below the 15% threshold.

There is heat in the ocean to melt the ice, but the buoy temperatures steadily fall. Barring major storm events it is near flat bottom of the melting curve for 2020. More questionable is Russian coasts where is more heat to dissipate to delay the refreeze. On the Atlantic Side, melting advances for weeks incrementally but is fully compensated in cooling air over the Central Arctic and North Pole forming ice.

I expect, nevertheless, rapid sea ice re-growth to occur facilitated by the widespread ice floes in Arctic.

More worrying is near Blue Ocean event next year and its forecast effect on the jet stream-driven rain belts moving in GCMs from a line north of the British Isles to the median around the Strait of Gibraltar, with the winter rain belts shifted to Morocco, Spain, Portugal, and Southern France, with the Beasts of the East, easterlies originating from Siberia brining very crispy air over Northern and Central Europe. The median occurrence in the models point to post-2021-melt circulatory change peaking by year end.

For general public 1,000,000 km2 BOE will appear cheating by experts and I would not market the event as such until the ocean is genuinely ice free (which I think is also just behind the corner as the last remaining ice bits to vanish take increasingly less energy due to diminished volume).

We need to readily assault against false climate change denialists' claims as surely they will come to haunt us 2021 if we claim blue ocean when there is million square kilometres of ice still left behind.

The surest sign of the final arrival of the Blue Ocean is when the Russian and American submariners are hugging in each other's arm pits under the very last ice floe - somewhere north of Canada.  :P

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 02:46:24 AM »
This season with its large amount of pulverised sea ice will seed rapid expansion of film of new sea ice. This same phenomenon occurs in Antarctic waters where winds and sea currents regularly facilitate fast spreading of broken sea ice around the continent. The myriad of unmelted pieces of sea ice will seed ocean to rapid growth of sea ice if temperatures and sea water stirring are not prohibitive. The forming of this sea ice film slows down evaporation and outward long wave transmission. In the autumn the pulverisation seeds sea ice formation, whereas in the spring it increases absorption of solar radiation and ice melting. Captain Kramsin(*) is being operated on the Amurskaya Bay on "ice chipping" operations to crush ice in the spring to induce enhanced melting of sea ice, in the autumn its effect is opposite and ice grows faster. All that happens in Antarctica naturally, and in years with lots of broken ice, the ice area rebounds fast. (*Service operated by FESCO - Far East Shipping Company).
<snip>
<snip>
About the worst thing I can think of happening now would be calm clear skies that permit a quick surface re-freeze, locking a lot of that heat into the system.

You see on that last point, I think the opposite. Ice can't form until the heat out of the ocean is gone so I don't buy into the theory a quick refreeze is bad for the ice. A slow refreeze means less time for the ice to thicken thus quicker to melt in the next melt season albeit weather will vary just how quick that would be.

Either way, high pressure rules the roost which should be a good thing except its still orientating in such a way it will bring heat into the basin. Makes me laugh seeing the models wanting to turn things colder as that is natural at this time of year yet they are totally underestimating the current heat that is in the basin which is why cold uppers at 96 hours gets much watered down by the time we get to zero.

Either way, more compaction/melt on the Atlantic/Laptev ice edge, how much of it will reach 85 degrees north, either way there is going to be lots of warm water in the next few months which no doubt will continue the trend of the PV struggling to form.

6
This would suggest me the west Greenland losing from additional climatic warming to the gain of east Greenland. Western winds carrying less humidity as they arrive from the continent, while the warmer Atlantic water body having more moisture, increasing precipitation. But once ice-free ocean in the north materialises early in insolation, we will see this set up crumbling and more melting everywhere.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 14, 2020, 04:46:21 AM »
Absolute tragedy. Konrad Steffen - a great soul. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/13/konrad-steffen-death-climate-change-scientist-dies-greenland/3362486001/  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :-\ :-\ :-\ :-\ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[

Ground caved in while installing meteorological weather station due to subsurface melt cavity in Greenland. Working on melting Greenland ice sheet is becoming increasingly dangerous and unpredictable. The whole Greenland ice sheet is becoming Swiss cheese with water pockets hidden under its treacherous unstable surface. (Wait and you will start seeing it collapse major ways as each year more of these pockets form as it turns increasingly slushy ice.) Crevasse water heat will not escape even in winter but builds up temperature in deep ice accumulating each year more water in Greenland's ice - making it ever more fragile labyrinth of ice caves filled with summertime melt water.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 13, 2020, 05:15:06 AM »
I think 2020 season's great lessons may be that very high sea ice concentrations probably have a tipping point where lack of leads between the ice floes becomes negative feedback, reducing floe side melting and water overturning near and beneath ice. Ice also reduces ventilation of ocean, it means that heat will take longer to escape during the winter darkness and cold, also enhanced by the growing Lake Snow Effect on the Arctic Ocean (Maurice Ewing - William Donn Effect): open perimeter seas piling up snow onto CAB further preventing heat escape and sea ice thickening under the thick snow.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 01:46:34 AM »
The nuclear submariners have continued to search for strong ice to seek hides underneath sea ice. This task is becoming increasingly difficult if not impossible as the sea ice area has dangerously thinned. The wake of forward propulsion of large nuclear submarines can be detected even in thin and broken sea ice. The hide and seek game is ending, if it did not do so already. The small residual ice cap is also posing unacceptable dangers and both Russian and US submariners are forced to remain and move within same constricted area increasing the risk of collisions, especially detection as nuclear submarines communicate their position fairly accurately to another submarines due to noise their engines are making, while the signs of wake (also the rearrangement of ice floes in the wake) now reveals the generals' toys locations from above. (sarcastic about that  :D :D :D)

We might already this year have a foretaste of what post-sea ice weather brings: outwards thrown jet-stream boundary with mean value near the Strait of Gibraltar (shifting from nr. Norway north of UK initially predicted December 2021 after repeat serious melt, but now forwarded). For the UK and Central Europe this means increased risk of so-called "Beast-of-the-East": severe cold easterlies pulling freezing air across continent from Russia while the Arctic Ocean is cooling, while Portugal, Spain, Morocco, and Algeria goes growing rice. In my mind, questions remain over covid-19 whether that does anything contrary to earlier forecast like warming on winter, or its effect on daily weather might be negligible, also, I worry about changes in monsoon(??) routes and strength. Its time for both parties to scrap their toys for good (my opinion) and put the money to windmills...

If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?
Very low I would say. There's way to much energy in the system, so I expect at least one more big storm. Probably two...

It's been a crazy year so far - as I predicted. And this is only the second melting season I'm following closely...  :-\ Can you imagine what will happen next year after the global economy completely collapses because nobody will be able to pay back their loans to the banks?  :-\

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:48:56 AM »
Yakutia Superfires 2nd July 2020 at 500km and 50km resolutions beat even the Amazon fires.  :-[

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 08:08:20 AM »
The gap increases the ice pack's mobility potential as the weak and freely floating ice cannot contain it to the extent coastal margins and their thick ice packs do. More turning of the pack is a possibility too.
For what's it's worth, HYCOM shows an interesting forecast for north of Greenland in early August - a large gap opening up, larger than anything I've seen there before. <snip> Source: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

12
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: July 29, 2020, 06:39:24 AM »
I love your post! It appears that I originally referred to the downward anomaly found within the ground uplift when the ice melting (ablation) effect was assessed with this I meant the reduction in the uplift (due to the 2mm deduction by the landslip occurring on the area). As melting lightens the ground, it rises. Yet as the ground slips deeper into the ocean, the ground rises less: anomaly emerges

I referred uplift anomaly to the GNET stations uplift anomaly -2mm deduction in the uplift in the area. My memory is a bit wide but short, the anomaly graph appears I referred on p. 17 here: https://www.academia.edu/33000316/MPs_to_review_UKs_role_in_Arctic_sustainability_-_24th_April_2017.docx and has been taken from SRS Parliament evidence from source :
Bevis, M. et. al.: "Bedrock displacements in Greenland manifest ice mass variations, climate cycles and climate change" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)     vol. 109 no. 30, pages 11944–11948, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204664109. Figure 5. 11 June 2012. Figure 5: https://www.pnas.org/content/109/30/11944

I hope above clarifies my position why I think this region is very problematic when Greenland surface melt becomes exhaustive across the north parts of GIS after the summer sea ice is no longer there.

Arctic has seen a small scale coastal rock collapses. Similar but much larger scale events will happen when the rocks begin to melt further and further thus clearing pathway for ice to slide to sea. This is my view of Heindrich Zero ice berg calving event when the barrier on the Hudson Strait gave away to the ice dome. Its replication, we indicated the structural similarities of the two coastlines and their weaknesses. I see the Hudson Strait as the older sister of the Melville Bay which collapsed, while Melville Bay almost collapsed but was arrested by rising sea water table, more northernly position of Greenland's ice to that of the Fixe-Laurentide ice dome on the Hudson Bay, and the new equilibrium.

This area interests SRS due to its broken geology that is also subsiding contrary to the rest of Greenland.
The area is question is NOT subsiding but is undergoing rapid uplift, see:

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/109/30/11944.full.pdf

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: July 28, 2020, 08:33:22 AM »
Melville Bay's Coastal Depression section showing ice discharges and drained melt water lakes 27.07.2020. The region has very active Greenland Ice sheet edge because the width of Greenland's perimeter shield fades away and descends below sea level - part of GIS edge more akin to ice shelf.

This area interests SRS due to its broken geology that is also subsiding contrary to the rest of Greenland. Besides Petermann's fjord this is potentially one of the most dangerous parts due to its huge erratic boulders and unstable sea bed, east-west tilting, and north-south bending point stressing its rocks, and turbidic rock falls on its broken seabed. Its edges are often licked also by warm sea water.

Sea Research Society's evidence-giving in Parliament pointed out risks from this region after the Arctic Ocean becomes regularly ice-free in summer time. After exhaustive surface melt in north Greenland, post summer sea ice, this region will accumulate even more wet and slushy ice against its perimeter barrier obstacles. This risk is growing and these land subsidences will become major hazard one day: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons
 

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 10:49:29 PM »
Let's wait and see which one pulled the best pack of Tarot cards!!!  ;)
The SIPN median from the July report was 4.36 million km2.

Lowest NSIDC average for September was 3.57 in 2012.

For the ASIF, the most relevant poll is Juan's poll here :

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3154.0.html

The mean of the ASIF predictions is 3.67.

So ASIF prediction is approximately 0.7 below the SIPN.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:30:18 AM »
While the size of upward heat sink to the space is infinite, there is also the downward heat sink into the permafrost soils, aquifers, bed rocks, sea water, and sea beds which is finite due to endogenic heating. The cold dump to downward sink is now diminishing from its top towards bottom as surface heat meets increasingly endogenic heat at equilibrium surface point: In Finland bedrock temperature measurements show bedrocks having warmed 1.5C as much as 700 metres down.

In addition to the build-up heat in the underworld, the melted permafrost also has started to decompose and release heat - even under snow cover - further reducing the available heat sinks when the next spring arrives with evermore violent spring floods. Cold grounds shield snow against short heat waves. This earth system protection is increasingly lost leading to floods and then forest fires as soils dry earlier as water drains away (or has drained away previous permafrost melting years).

The warmed up soils was the reason for the collapse of Maurice Ewing - William Donn accumulative lake-snow model of the Arctic Ocean at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. As sea ice melts and sea water warms, the effect of larger snowfalls as coolant come to naught as the soils under the snow cover warm up too making snow that sits on warmer soils ever more volatile.

Do these make any sense to you as contributing explanations in addition to this springs heat wave, reduction of aerosol load, & high amount of insolation: the ticking atomic bombs get under our feet.
:o
Yes, that's the horrific one. Maybe the proper scientists attribute this to some specific element of the climate system. Laptev has had methane seeping out now for couple of years, this year Western Siberia has been very warm (hot even) , there are no contrails due CoViD-19 to block the sun, permafrost melting has been increasing rather steadily... Plenty of factors all seem to coverge this year on Laptev Sea.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:29:29 AM »
NASA Worldview also clearly shows the structural weakness of this ice by this ice blowout near FJL. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=606537.3106086026,102440.43155999202,975177.3106086026,316712.431559992&p=arctic&t=2020-07-23-T03%3A14%3A46Z We definitely are approaching the unimaginable, yet the long predicted Laxton Sea, I suppose Seymour Laxton must be turning restlessly in his coffin as his prediction nears the blue ocean state. We cannot appreciate enough him telling this (which danger few still even know). By June 2020 upward sonar soundings indicated this years melt will fuse into next years spring leading to even more complete job by the end of 2021 melt with autumn-winter storm tracks moving from North of UK all the way to south France, Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Algeria last seen in Pleistocene.

There ain't no stoppin' it now .. https://go.nasa.gov/39oSyYL
  for the 1'st time in 10 days we get to see the unfolding horror of the Atlantic side . Pagophilus showed the damage north of FJL . I see it extends as far as can be seen .. 86.5'N . The state of the ice here is as bad or worse than the ice between Laptev and pole . Coupled with the video of Polarstern and the ice flow , I see no reason for any of the ice on the Eurasian side of the meridian 0/180' to survive. <snip> 
     https://go.nasa.gov/39pnnwi
  of course , weather and seasons changing may delay the inevitable for another year.
.
This is exactly what I mean it's only freaking July 23rd. 2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume
<snip>
<snip>
Expect UNPRECEDENTED melt.  Expect huge areas of open water is going to develop over the next 1-2 weeks. Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY. BY MID AUGUST AREA WILL DROP AT RECORD PACE. Concentration keeps dropping. Imagine If the entire central arctic basin was clear. Concentration would be way lower.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 09:46:56 PM »
BBC and Nature Climate Change today: "Ignorantia stupor hoc est ianua"

One of the most misleading articles has appeared in BBC minimising the risks of the Arctic sea ice loss. Far too many people fail to understand that the short, extreme periods of weather and sea ice melting are dangerous to biological life. On the other hand, glaciers suffer from tiny rises in temperature averages over long time. Only one or two days of extreme heat shock can kill plants and animals extinct whether it is frost or heat shock if they are not adapted to such temperatures. I bet that just one or two summer seasons without Arctic sea ice will kill all polar bears by starvation: therefore citing averages "becoming critical for polar bear survival" around year 2100 is seriously faulty argument. Some GCMs already modelled that this summer leads to 'sticky 2020/2021 winter' followed by 2021 another melt that causes so much delay in the onset of 2021/2022 winter that the jet streams may push depression systems tracks to far south Portugal - Morocco line (whereas these used to be north of Britain). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53474445  :'(

(I've received support from Professor Sir Ghillean Prance, FRS and others that the argument is faulty, circumstantial evidence is high: adverse conditions to starve bears are likely to occur before 2100.)

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 02:50:24 AM »
The 8) conditions of direct sunlight help us to determine 2020 sea ice area. Should not have been too difficult this summer if one has access to NASA Worldview and spectacles. Cloud free season is luckily exception: sometimes knowing less the ice is better for it - much akin it is to Schrödinger's Cat...!

Area numbers are very difficult to interpret in the summer.  That is why the official numbers are always reported as extent. Extent is certainly not perfect, but at least it is consistent.

People on this forum are very good at interpreting area numbers in the summer. Probably as good as the sea ice scientists. But, it is still impossible to rely on them. Wet clouds, dense fog, wet ice, melt ponds, rain, fresh snow, overnight freeze,  etc ... all cause bumps in area data.

Area is helpful in the summer, but the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 05:09:36 AM »
If my eyes are right, the old leads in sea ice have today melted through and open water. This makes dispersion easier and increases sunlight retention along the long black lines. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1243287.3783722145,401062.8107039131,-874647.3783722145,615334.8107039131&p=arctic&t=2020-07-15-T02%3A01%3A52Z

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 04:42:38 AM »
Additional possibility to high insolation and thinness of sea ice cover feeding to microbial growth within and beneath sea ice may be destabilised methane hydrates releasing up methane, carbon dioxide, and nutrients in bursts to sea water in East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea. The area of grey and brown is deepening in colour tone and widening on area extent, yet it is within unbroken sea ice area in shallow Russian continental shelf. Vortices of nutrient rich riparian discharges might also be a contributor to it:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-738231.7242011561,798688.0907794486,-369591.72420115606,1012960.0907794486&p=arctic&z=2  8)

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 15, 2020, 04:22:31 AM »
It seems me clear that the usual footing on Russian side having been lost record early and lot, has had an impact for the sea ice footing of the American side. Back in 2006 I predicted (and repeated at my RSE VII presentation at "Arctic - Mirror of Life Symposium" 2007) that lop-sided Polar Sea Ice cap would emerge once sea ice's spatial extent diminishes. The smaller radius the central pack has, the more spatial dislodgement will emerge. Ultimately, the limit is how far winds and currents can push ice to one direction. This seems to be the case now, with also QE islands void filled by lose ice debris.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1428665.4368975572,-698424.6018564447,-691385.4368975572,-269880.60185644473&p=arctic

I do not know yet if my other RSE VII prediction that compacted ice packs would survive far more pounding than dispersed ones, has reality to it. If so, then we may end with large sea ice area of rotten ice. This kind of soft, honeycombed ice obviously is extremely sensitive to wind damage like GAC 2012. But in the absence of winds, and setting sun, we might end with extraordinary amount of poor quality ice by the autumn. Would the present setting enhance such long lasting stills until the fall and darkness?

But wait, there's more. Now that the rest of the imagery was cached from Worldview you can see the extent to which the entire pack is both mobile and fractured

Interesting new feature with Pikachu - looks rather large.

The surprised Pikachu face is how I felt when I made that. At a loss for words and just like: is this reality right now??

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:37:14 AM »
I can't see totality, would require multiple huge storms at the end of season to demolish thickest ice. If blue ocean is 1 million sq km or other artificial threshold (which no one in the public understand), perhaps yes. But certainly no totality, there are still enough of legacy ice.
So is the consensus that the sea ice will end up like 2012 but with the edges severely trimmed? A record low with a lot of ice free ocean but no Blue Ocean Event?

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:25:47 AM »
It may be the ghost of the Laxton Sea for 2020 is arising like Phoenix from the ashes of many alarmist earlier predictions like myself. I always appreciated late Seymour Laxton of the University Collge London as one of the great early birds warning of the early demise of the Arctic Sea Ice. Catherine Gilles was another great of theirs. Sadly we miss both of them to see their predictions if not realised, at least close. In future our worries will comprise of collapsing methane hydrates and exhaustively melting North Greenland Ice Sheet turning into honeycombed water clogged unstable porridge. :'(

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 05:09:03 AM »
Earlier in the thread someone notified brownish tints becoming common in sea ice this year suggesting strong algae growth. The large amount of sunlight available in 2020 to algae to photosynthesise might change properties of water beneath sea ice by turning it murkier and opaque. This would then trap more sunlight and heat right beneath sea ice and thus accelerate its melting (even though not always visible from the surface covered by sea ice). As sea ice gets thinner (sic.) the light contribution is for increased algae photosynthesis and its contribution as a positive feedback in ice melting is likely to grow. One area for someone to pick up for a good PhD thesis that would contribute much to modelling, also a rare piece that could be studied in a laboratory setting at first to test the concept of alga-driven melt feedback.  8)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 04:21:46 AM »
Aggressive melting in 2020 has been factored in May-June 2020 in some GCMs which see the jet streams pushed from north of Britain further south to guide depression systems in such a way that:
"Atlantic storms will sweep on to the coasts of Morocco, Portugal and France in December 2021." ZoW. A pre-requisite of this is aggressive melting and warming of Arctic this summer chained to the next one. The delayed winter re-freezing in the Arctic Ocean occurring about eight weeks later than before. BOE not yet factored in. Anyone thought with how truncated this coming winter season will be?  :o

I think the Lincoln Sea will empty out in the next week. The ice in the north sea will float towards

Beaufort and the ice closer to Nares will enter Nares. IMO. The last of the Kara Sea ice (near severnaya zemlya) looks set for destruction as a LP system looks set to stir the ice while pushing it into warmer waters.


QUESTION: If a 2012esque GAC occurs and everything gets stirred up, what is the likelihood of mixing to the point where afterwards the stratified layer of cold fresh water/ice is only a fraction of what it was before? If this happened, would a near BOE be most likely every year heretofore?

26
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 09, 2020, 02:57:56 AM »
Looks like a technical artefact as it has disappeared from today's image in South East Greenland, but re-appeared in Melville Bay. It seems ice sheet is in normal order barring the major melting underway.

The latest eruption near Melville Bay section of GIS is here: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-478804.7144347975,-1432374.8578587899,-389371.7075003524,-1380391.9225781437&p=arctic&t=2020-07-08-T04%3A37%3A12Z&e=true  So, bye bye to hot springs, geysers or GIS subglacial volcano.  ???

I don't see that via Sentinel 2. This might just be a wrong pixel rendering.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 08:11:59 AM »
Not only melting (aqua blue) on sea ice, but signs of its softening are clear on 8th July 2020. It tells me that some ice has started to honeycomb to become "rotten ice" and opens leads easily:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-931807.9036340355,300518.162858593,-563167.9036340355,514790.162858593&p=arctic

28
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 08, 2020, 07:14:19 AM »
Colourful speck appeared 7.7. on Greenland Ice Sheet, does anyone has larger image of the area? Fournier triangulation has contorted its colours. (I hope this is not volcanic eruption in the making, shouldn't be as Greenland is supposedly volcanically extinct, if it were would be bad omen for its ice).
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=71669.71520490224,-2646993.662074549,250535.7290737917,-2543027.7915132567&p=arctic&t=2020-07-07-T04%3A37%3A12Z&e=true

29
Permafrost / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 02:19:19 AM »
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2564096,772096,3334144,4200448&p=arctic&z=1
Sea Ice is now smothered with lots of aerosol and black soot. How this does affect melting, one in the air cools, one falling on ice speeds melting. The ice loss is met with equally horrendous forest fires. There is lot of aerosols in air from forest fires (not from planes) lot of stuff ending over the Arctic Ocean.

.. The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 04:43:01 AM »
I personally feel that if there is a total or near complete sea ice loss in the Arctic, this might introduce extreme temperature gradients to the region. On the onset of winter darkness, these may generate hurricane force winds that pile up extreme pack ice against the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Nunavut. This then would be combined with open Central Arctic causing huge lake-snow effect dumping that could re-generate new ice shelves as snowfall fuses into such pack ice formations.

This could re-instate - volatile and temporary - new "ice shelves" of quite considerable thickness. For shipping these conditions would be deadly even though the Central Arctic might remain open water deep into mid winter. Fortunately, for this season I cannot see ocean warming sufficient even if all ice were lost, the high temperature gradients and adequate moisture conditions are prerequisite for these ice shelves to form from extreme pack ice development combined to equally massive lake-snow falls.

Maurice Ewing and William Donn of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) in Palisades, New York were the last researchers advocating Lake-Snow Effect from insolation as a trigger of the Ice Ages ice sheets (since taken over by Milutin Milanković theory of the slow orbital forcings). The problem with Lake-snow from Arctic warming is that even though the effect is seen intensifying, also the land where snow falls also warms (just like Oren said aptly, that in the end it all melts in the Hudson Bay): the net result being higher spring floods in Siberia, not any ice sheet.

Post-Rio-1992 UN Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar authorised the First Nations of Americas Ethnoclimatology Motion to be tabled on the floor of UN General Assembly on the Native American history on Foxe-Laurentide Ice Dome on which issue the UNFCCC update is here (some Asian nations lend support to this case history and WMO gave minor conference funding) which I am quite familiar: https://www.academia.edu/36396474/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Motion_101292_for_UNFCCCs_Talanoa_Dialogue There is no way for new ice sheet. In above, cause is geothermal lake-snow effect and the project goal is to attain funds to GRIP style ice core to retrieve subglacial carbon for AMS test.

Severe problems will only emerge once Arctic begin to be ice free mid-summer, then above effect may be at the tipping point for subsequent winter darkness - extremely unstable - ice shelving north of Canada. The present season (2020) is luckily one light year away from this awkward tipping point.

@Oren as outrageous bbr claim can be, your response should have come in a post apart..
The Hudson Bay thing is part of bbr's hypothesis on a new ice sheet forming in Northern Canada. It also bursts forth on the Northern hemisphere Snowfall thread from time to time. It is true to say that Hudson Bay has successfully mostly ignored AGW over the years. It is also true to say that it melts out completely without fail.

32
It seems at this point 50% of our community thinks sea ice volume is smaller or about equal to 2012.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 06:09:07 AM »
Years ago when Cryosat team were presenting at the Paris Air show they talked some rubbish. I recall that on that occasion their system interpreted rugged, compacted sea ice as multiyear ice, whereas the thick flat multiyear ice that appeared in satellite photos was interpreted as first year ice. I wonder if something of the like still lingers on it, but would doubt as I and Peter Wadhams made a bit melee of it. Eventually Peter told me to quieten the dispute down and not to steam them anymore to get calm. On that occasion the compacted ice on the Atlantic front was interpreted as multi-year ice, while ice north east and north of the Taimyr Peninsula on the Central Arctic Basin was presented as single year ice. I suppose, the issue was better radar reflection from tilted ice floes acting as better mirrors of radar rays.

Interesting question Friv has raised, perhaps I shouldn't raise old skeletons from cup board. Hopefully, nobody offended on above. I have not recently been following photos closely enough to judge matter. Meeting later today the deputy of UN Secretary-General António Guterres as the monsoon in Asia has stalled with Australian-forest-burning-like major event now occurring on the north side of the Hadley Cells and starting to raise international tensions over Co2 concentrations' effect on the main rice growing belt of Asia. I am tentatively suggesting the warming Arctic may also be contributing to monsoon change. More action on fossils needed
I wanted to post this as soon as I came across it. PIOMAS actually published the cryosat ice thickness and then they posted a graph of piomas versus cryosat.
...

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 23, 2020, 11:47:36 AM »
Copernicus offers extremely strong suggestion for the high prevalent Siberian temperatures being exacerbated which will have overspill effect for the melting of the Arctic sea ice for the rest of this season: https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2020062100,36,2020062212&projection=classical_arctic&layer_name=composition_ch4_500hpa

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 18, 2020, 08:41:17 AM »
2012 GAC ought to be a warning sign that storm can pulverise and dissolve ice, leaving behind long lasting adverse albedo change of more open water which then captures sunlight more efficiently rest of season. Even if immediate cloud albedo reflects strong sunlight of peak summer, ice free ocean catches more with the rest of season. Is this 2012 GAC of 2020 remains to be seen.

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Thank you FG.
It looks like the CAA will be very warm throughout the forecast period. I wonder if the storm will manage to break some of the fast ice in the channels.
I'm still contemplating the discussion we continued on the Newbie thread where I claimed that a storm takes out heat from the system, while Binntho said it adds energy. This storm proves my point I think, that a storm like this can destroy some ice, but overall has a cooling effect on the arctic. Like you said, this storm will block out a lot of insolation during the peak right now. Let's see if it'll destroy some ice.

Storms add energy to the system.  Always. And depending on the time of year (i.e. autumn, winter and spring), storms are probably the most efficient methods of adding energy to the system.

What we are seeing now is that at the time of maximum insolation, storms add less energy than direct solar radiation. Which is totally to be expected at this time of year. So even if this particular storm has a "cooling effect" because it adds less energy than direct insolation at this time of year, in no way does that allow for the conclusion that storms in general "take heat from the system". Besides being totally illogical (storms in the arctic are bunches of hot and moist air originating in the temperate zone and arriving with high klnetic energy into a frozen environment), the lack of supporting evidence should make you pause before making such claims.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2020, 05:46:14 AM »
The stable rate (1997-2007), has remained variable since 2007 unprecedented event (2007-2020). Likewise, the higher variability in sea ice extent also preceded that period (1979-1997). For the future prediction the reasons for these changing variabilities in Arctic sea ice compactness need better understood. I could conceive that thinner sea ice and open waters help now variability, but what then caused the higher sea ice variability (1979-1997)? Was it the weakening of the peripheral seas ice that is then followed by the weakening of the Central Arctic? These questions must be urgently answered if we want to understand when the ocean becomes ice free, and whether it is then regular or irregular.

Ref: see the attached graph on previous post below.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 01, 2020, 09:40:14 PM »
<It looks to me as a typo and should be:>
2020 Area is 3rd smallest after 2016 and 2019
2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016         
2020 Area is 100 k more than 2019

2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.                  
- 2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 100 k less than 2019
         

Another significant increase in the daily northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value. 2020 now has more sea ice area than 2019 for the date.



The 5.31.2020 value is now 26,753 square kilometers of sea ice area more than the 5.24.2020 value.

With average NSIDC sea ice area losses, the trailing 5-day average will show 2019 zoom past 2020 within the next 4 days.

This is also the 2nd daily record gain in NSIDC sea ice area, in the last 7 days (5.25 & 5.31).

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 22, 2020, 11:19:16 AM »
My apologies of banding things together. I should have been more pointed just to state that I have noticed a lack of graphs on ASIF that show evolution of sea ice area and extent variability rising/lowering/staying same over moving 5 and 10 year periods whichever shows better where we are going. If that got lost, then I perhaps shoot my own foot. (I wish I'd be able to create such graphs.)

VAK, parts of your post are very off-topic here. Some belong in "When will the Arctic go ice-free", "Geoengineering", "Archaeology/Paleontology news". As this is a rare occurrence I will let it stand, but more such posts will have to be moved/edited/deleted,

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 22, 2020, 08:56:24 AM »
The solar altitude idea is quite interesting as well as the projection of ice remaining 80-90 degrees to the north until perhaps 2040 as a consequence of low solar angle in the high latitude. I have been looking at this issue from perspective of sea ice stability and sea ice variabilities. I suspect as the mobility is increasing, sea ice is pushed increasingly to open areas as sea ice scattering increases.

To resolve half way the above problem, we at Sea Research Society, would be grateful if someone with skills on spreadsheets and data could put out a graph which shows the minimum-maximum sea ice area on each day. The simplest this type graph would be to show each date's highest-ever and lowest-ever value and the relation of current year's reading (its place) against these two boundaries. This is a very primitive and not too helpful -- except for public purposes to show current years position in media. For the general public having a set of multiple curves is confusing and newspaper space limits the size of graph in print. If a graph of highest-lowest ever is made you can fit it in 1-2 inch graph in magazine, for newspaper there are a bit more options but generally I believe most people find extra curves confusing. They don't have scientific value, just informative one as printing space is limited.

A more useful graph for ASIF community would be one that shows 5 / 10-year moving average of sea ice area variability. This could give us projections how broad range of outcomes of sea ice scattering and melt would be in future. Walt Meier just wrote a paper on sea ice movement increasing 10% per decade. Suggested chart, I suggest, could provide indication how sea ice area variability has evolved in time: this changing variability unfolds future in case the moving averages reveal a widening outcome spectrum. I suspect huge fanning ahead in possible sea ice extents.

Unfortunately we at SRS are not able to do it as our strength areas are in marine archeology and anthropology where we are world leaders in a deep diving. Our teaching programme for deep divers for oil rigs is just 5th accepted centre of learning in whole USA (including US Navy). Thus we have had archaeological excavations conducted under 180 metres below sea surface from sea bed pressurised cabin. This makes us the only archaeological organisation to excavate former Palaeolithic sites at Last Glacial Maximum at 120-130 metres below sea level. But we are hampered with funding to our work.

Palaeolithic archaeological work is important for understanding how fast sea level rose in the past:

There is a worrying amount of sites where pots and pans are left behind that suggests huge displacement events by collapsing ice sheets that are not at all in current geophysical model. This imply that they simply must be wrong. Valuable items are never left behind if people can collect them! I have been warning at UK Houses of Parliament of various failings and overconfidence of geophysicists. This must remain SRS' focus to warn about problem geophysical models do not capture.

The other similar problem is the pulverising effect which is lacking in Pleistocene sites when it shouldn't. If sea level changes slowly, the waves excavate soils and pulverise even strong buildings. This has not happened in the ice Ages, and many buildings over large areas remain immersed intact in water (unless a by-passing trawler net has caught and damaged them). From geophysical point of view I've captured and offered explanation to above in my Parliament evidence giving most recently: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

I have not been contributing graphs here in ASIF last four years. The last one of mine being corrections to US Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite when its Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) data began providing erratic passive microwave brightness temperatures (and its derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice products). President Trump then stupidly if not disgustingly trashed US$ 400 million US Navy replacement satellite on ground with his typical arrogant style thus wasting taxpayers money (much like ensuring coronaviruses to populate the US and reduce human emissions).

To resolve issues discussed here, we need a new type of graph that shows the changing variability of spectrum of sea ice area and extent outcomes. I expect this rainbow be widening and I don't believe sea ice remaining safe until 2040. I understand that the idea of ice remaining was flouted as theoretical idea rather than expected outcome knowing the decreasing barriers as ocean opens and ice has more space to move around, ultimately the islands left as the last constraint.

On geoengineering I've lobbied bridge suspension cabling with lower able pontoons with compressed air to be installed Ellesmere Island - Hans Island - Greenland to reduce ice flow on the Nares Strait and also between the Queen Elizabeth islands to hold sea ice back for shipping lane. So far, I have not gathered great interest on neither idea but they could be used to control southward ice loss.

Based on our experience, we expect Arctic Ocean sea ice loss be catastrophic for North Greenland's ice sheet. Initially the lake-snow effect of the Arctic Ocean (studied by Maurice Ewing and William Donn in 1950's as a potential cause for the ice ages), could lift enough snow from the Arctic Ocean to reverse for a brief moment the sea level rise, then followed by castastrophic collapses due to meltwater build up under and within the ice sheet - suddenly then pushing ocean water table up, with people running from their homes and thus leaving household valuables behind. We can still find these artefacts in original contexts indicating that at least in the Indian Ocean people had no time but just run away.

We do not hear from these just because few people dig Palaeolithic as there is 'no gold and silver' and the work in ocean depths is costly + dangerous with each additional metre of water. In Indian Ocean sites strong currents and no visibility deters divers exploring sites, plus the high cost of this type of deep diving work. The fact we don't hear about it, doesn't mean that the problem does not exist.

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Sea Research Society, Vice President
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society
Solar altitude doesn't get high enough to overcome the snow albedo effect until the first week of June.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 04, 2020, 04:09:22 PM »
Hi, I do not want to give wrong advise to government, what is the best estimate of sea ice situation looking now. Someone was citing very worrying JAXA numbers. Could someone clarify as I do not want to be alarmist. How much there will be ice left exactly. (Of course, we never know what is the exact.) Give me some suggestion what is the best to be expected from this summer how much ice is left?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 02, 2020, 10:25:14 AM »
"Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum." NOTE: >>

The earlier in season the loss occurs, the less sea ice refugia remains: this increases chances for melting and sea ice scattering by wind or sea currents. It is far from necessity for some ice to remain, but Hudson Bay's Foxe Basin and Okhotsk Sea best proxies that melt-resisting corners might exist. High latitude insulation is 360 degree v. Ohotsk Sea or Hudson Bay's Foxe Basin where lightening conditions in midnight are lower. (Both these have mountains projecting shadows, you can see shadows' effect on the lakes on the spring.) If temperatures rise very high, air mixing leaves behind no cold corners (total loss event).

NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30th April 2020

Peripheral Arctic Sea Ice Area reached a its maximum in early March at well above the 2010's average, and from then has declined very quickly indeed to well below the 2010's average.

Area loss from maximum is 1.71 million km2, some 0.64 million km2, 60%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 1.07 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 2ndd lowest, just 25k km2 more than 2016.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum..

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 29, 2020, 01:25:12 AM »
Light Pillars with ice crystals reflecting light back.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 26, 2020, 02:22:02 AM »
Coronavirus has certainly helped to brighten skies also on Subarctic and Arctic regions. Normally it is difficult to see 80km across the Baltic Sea from Finland to Estonia.  The reduction of nitrous oxides makes it possible now to see much more easily across the Gulf of Finland from Helsinki to Tallinn. Normally such viewings are possible for electric lighting or during sunset or sunrise when contrast is high, but currently it is possible to see continually and even through midday's bright circumstances.  8)

https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000006486374.html

Finland is quite high latitude, almost sliced to two halves by the Arctic Circle, or ~1/3 to ~2/3 ratio. If light can travel much further horizontally unhindered by aerosols, it certainly is transparent vertically. Let's see if this removal of global dimming effect lives up to its name or if the scare was exaggerated. Central England Temperature (CET) was since beginning of this year to this week +2.26C above 1960-2000 average.  :-[

...
Do you have any stats to back up  this  ? Re cyclones.
I don't, but i did not look for, either. Was just general consideration, which i think is quite obvious: when it's some 10%...15% of sunlight normally much absorved by aerosols, "normally" means with recent-years-typical amount of fuel burning by mankind, - we'll have that much more heat mostly added to troposphere, and cyclones are driven by athmospheric heat. Substract from it, and less "of" cyclones will be around: less number as well as less intensity.

Important also: "less" means "less than would otherwise happen", and with ever-growing GHGs, the general trend is to _more_ of cyclones as years go by. So less aerosols will make it "less than would happen with both normal aerosol content and with normal GHG growth", which does not nesessarily mean "less than in recent years", since GHG growth is ongoing process.

It would surely be very interesting to see how many and how strong cyclones in the Arctic would end up happening, but obviously we're not yet at the point in time when this could be measured / quantified. This is a talk for the end of this melting season - about estimating cyclones' number, strength and effects on sea ice.

The above point about less aerosols present in the air remains game-changing despite the uncertainty about "absolute" number and strength of cyclones / cloudy days during this season, however, because higher actual insolation at the surface - i.e. few percent more sunlight reaching the ice directly, - will still produce greater melt "per sunny day" than in recent years. Especially with less jet contrails directly over the Arctic as per less jet liners crossing the Arctic back and forth, as was usual in exactly recent years. The effect is relatively small "directly", but multiplicated with further albedo feedback, of course - few percent faster melt produces few percent darker surfaces on average, which then add ever growing further extra melt into the picture.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 21, 2020, 12:27:39 AM »
I have more satellite data that I have been hoping to present this season but due to my system breakdown and cost of repairs US$1,500, I have not been able to access the images I would have wished to put out this season on some debates. (Difficulty is that the firmware reader of data is incompatible with all PC and MacIntosh so finding people and spares is very hard for me to fix it.)
I can on this debate offer you a few images that I have put on my Curriculum Vitae that can be downloaded from Academia.edu. They are not of best resolutions, nor all of the images available that are highlighting this matter, but every bit will, nevertheless, help.

It is costly to produce images which provide optic side scans and repeat scans (multiplexing) of sea ice as this involves flying satellite constellations repeatedly in different angles and one after another. It is getting ever easier and one day all this is probably routine. Also a Fournier triangulation is avoided to spot visually a target such as a moving warship and to identify which ship or submarine has surfaced from the Arctic sea ice. It is tedious exercise to keep tabs (particularly on nuclear submarines as they are small and can disappear quickly back into ice).

For our discussion here we are interested about the formation of the leads, why and where they form:

Multiplex imaging with satellite cluster produces images of entire Arctic Ocean cloud-free during sunlight season, including the infrared and UV-scanners that identify sources or ships' heat or electric lights, whatever. On CV page 10 you can see how the continuous breakwater pulse propagates within the Arctic Ocean and weakens the sea ice from the estuary onwards. (The large image on the top.) Typically ultimate "C", penultimate "B", and antepenultimate "A" ice floes form from the Russian coast running their weakened seams perpendicularly to Canada where the ultimate "C" typically hits at the Western Last Sea Ice Area (Western - LIA) where the turning process causes opposite stress point, thus segregating the ultimate "C" and penultimate "B". There are two of these, but only one C/B is shown on my CV, both of them would be interest to this discussion.

There are couple other processes on the Arctic Ocean:

Page 8 The antepenultimate "A" facing the Atlantic runs on its own with the alternating zebra patterns of green and white on this image (result of breakwater waves or cells rolling on shallow sea).

The density differentials form the colours here as the river water from Russia moves along and rolls a bit like Swiss roll on its way to deep water near Fram Strait. The high density water is white as sea surface is lower than the ocean median ice surface (the median lines are highlighted on image for clarity), the low density river water is green due to it representing higher than the ocean median ice surface (due to its being less saline, it needs higher water column than saline water to keep ocean surface at equilibrium pressure).

The white colour forms over the dense water where ocean surface is lower than median and fills with drift snow. The green colour forms on the crest that is higher and without the drift snow that accumulates on troughs. The snow accumulation further amplifies the effect anchoring even more snow over the dense, saline rollers.

Because of this constant rolling of Swiss rolls between the ocean floor and its surface (sea ice), there is an overall current which has higher gravity potential and faster forward movement on surface, this then marks the boundary between antepenultimate "A", and penultimate "B" as the B flows slower than A.

These things have also changed over the years as ice in overall has pulverised and not been forming uniform films, but overall show the effect of North Asian rivers discharging onto the Arctic Ocean and forming weak points by supply of warmer water and its mixing and dragging heat out from warmer waters beneath - then maintaining a thinner ice along a narrow channel which presses against Canada (Western Last Sea Ice Area, by splitting the sea ice C/B and B/A, with B/A junction also running at different speed.

The differential movement on p. 8 is shown by 12 perpendicular secondary cracks (highlighted) on the main B/A crossing from Komsomoletski Island to Ellesmere Island.

Page 9 focuses on vortices or breakwater cells that fall into the deep channel, warm up aggressively and surface like cumulus cloud with the centre of pancake elevated with edges bending down and below median and filled by snow. These curving sea ice "spaghetti" edge formations are rare in comparison of the rectangular edge formations caused by breaking ice and re-freezing ice.

The rest of my Curriculum Vitae outside pages 8, 9, 10 are irrelevant to this forum.
https://www.academia.edu/5859691/Curriculum_Vitae_for_Exploration_and_Research

It's useful to read the Wikipedia entry on Pressure Ridges, and another entry about Stamukha.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_(ice)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamukha

Quote
Pressure ridges are the thickest sea ice features and account for about one-half of the total sea ice volume. Stamukhi are pressure ridges that are grounded and that result from the interaction between fast ice and the drifting pack ice.

Quote
One of the largest pressure ridges on record had a sail extending 12 metres (39 ft) above the water surface, and a keel depth of 45 metres (148 ft). The total thickness for a multiyear ridge was reported to be 40 metres (130 ft). On average, total thickness ranges between 5 metres (16 ft) and 30 metres (98 ft), with a mean sail height that remains below 2 metres (6.6 ft).

Interesting. stamukha (the grounded version of ridges) are most often found at depth of 20m which corresponds to Niall's depth chart above. Additionally, stamukha is a Russian word and the crack in question is found on the Russian coast.

So far, the shoe fits !!

So, a good working theory is that the repeating initial crack in the ESS is found at the 20m depth stamukha line.

If I were to imagine how the works in total, you have incoming warm Atlantic water entering the Arctic and Coriolis forces have it hugging the Siberian coast until it hits the stamukha wall and is forced toward the surface which is just a few meters above. Sound reasonable ?

Thanks for the wiki link Oren.

Edit: Alternative / complementary view is that the opening of this crack is also influenced heavily by wind. Looking at Aluminum's most recent post (#339) it seems like the crack was pretty wide a few days ago and then shut down with a change in wind direction.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 19, 2020, 07:55:44 PM »
This is just so terrible I started to cry, I knew Professor Sir John Houghton. He just passed away due to UK's terrible coronavirus epidemic.

 :'( FAMOUS BRITISH SCIENTIST AND IPCC 2007 NOBEL PRIZE TAKER DIES OF CORONAVIRUS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52325374  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(


46
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 19, 2020, 07:52:41 PM »
 :'( FAMOUS BRITISH SCIENTIST AND IPCC 2007 NOBEL PRIZE TAKER DIES OF CORONAVIRUS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52325374  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

47
Arctic sea ice / Arctic Sea Ice In The Far Past
« on: April 19, 2020, 06:41:35 PM »
6000-7000 YEARS AGO NO SEA ICE IN ARCTIC OCEAN (not even in winter)

We at Sea Research Society have been concerned of the Ice Free Arctic Ocean 7000 years ago and I have raised this issue at the UK Parliament and at the United Nations many times:

"Geological Survey of Norway - Summary: Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/10/081020095850.htm

However, there is a serious caveat to this darling discovery of climate change denialists (it won their prestigious the coveted global 1st prize for best scientific research to expose "global warming scam"):

1) All year-open Arctic beaches that are lifted off the sea on northeast of Greenland are washed in the tail currents from Iceland and Jan Mayen further in the south. As we know these islands have come about as result of numerous Surtseyan eruptions of gigantic scales. Although recent Surtsey eruptions (from 6.11.1963 to 5.6.1967) caused only tiny heat emission (radial-diffusion from heat spot) to sea water, the spatially far larger prehistoric effusive eruptions of same type caused perpendicular field emissions with heat diffusion happening as evaporation via the sea surface (perpendicular field emission depends strictly on the ratio of heated seafloor's spatial extent to its overlying water column thickness). As of this, the Gulf Steam would then transport heated water northwards where it met at the shores of the Independence Fjord. (There is also sea current forming upwelling polnya here due to bottom ocean water rising in the area to give a localised heating a further helping hand.) So, do not believe 7k ago Arctic Ocean occurring ice-free all year round.

2) The tail-current catchment diffuses in and around North Pole where ice berg dropping stones from moraine (that had melted off from the bottoms of ice bergs) were found in a mixture with tropical algae (Apectodinium) which dies in temperatures below +24C. How could Apectodinium exist if the climate in the Arctic was cold enough for the ice bergs? Add here the perpendicular field emission of heat into sea currents from Iceland - Jan Mayen ridge region and you have a constant supply of winter-steam to precipitate on landmasses to build glaciers and ice bergs and also make tropical plants perfectly happy in this Santa Cloud jacuzzi of polar bears and reindeers. You would then also find coastal areas further away with lots of precipitation and melt with Azolla growing in their breakwaters while ice floes would form even further away, break away from the coast and then drift to warmer waters and drop pebbles to seafloor in area where Azolla could grow: http://azolla.fc.ul.pt/documents/BBCNEWS_Science.pdf

We at Sea Research Society have been working expeditions to extract Apectodinium and Azolla algae from frozen and freeze-dried permafrost ex-seabed in these elevated sands of Greenland to blow trumpet on Icelands geothermal behemoth on all this.

3) This has certainly been the case in Antarctic, but also Norway (and we propose Independence Fjord too as well as for Apectodinium and Azolla occurrence in ice berg and ice floe filled Arctic Ocean).

"In the Northern Hemisphere, scientists have also discovered fossil evidence of ice age refuges in the high latitudes, where plants such as white spruce trees thrived in places like Norway, despite chilly weather and giant glaciers. These "cryptic refugia" have not yet been directly linked to volcanoes or geothermal areas." http://www.nbcnews.com/id/54636524/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/volcanoes-helped-antarctic-life-weather-ice-ages/#.Xpxk5S-ZNQI

4) Cryptic refugia existed in Norway where spruce trees filled the mountain tops while the fjords were packed to the brim with snow and ice. Glaciers kept forming through the Ice Ages due to westerlies blowing in endlessly snow with a constant flow of latent heat to Norway coming from Greenland Sea. Norwegian refugia is nothing to do with any local volcano but heat from Mid Atlantic Ridge escaping via ocean. Thus, Pleistocene era katabatic winds could not kill trees in warm and moist Norwegian nunataks between the fjords nor blow away their topsoil (unlike in xeric and cold Greenland nunataks). So, Norway's nunataks trees, flowers and grasses retained topsoil tied on the ground - while the less lucky Greenland nunataks received cold and xeric Foxe-Laurentide's katabatic westernlies to freeze-dry all life out of existence in Greenland nunataks to turn them into barren rocky patches in the ice pack that surrounds them. So Greenland mountain top nunataks ended devoid of all trees while Norway's blossomed in flowers and trees all Ice Ages through. Blame the only Islandic ice-Jotuns and Hellheimers for all this Norse mess: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17235229

United Nation's Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar authorised the original motion for tabling on the floor of United Nations General Assembly in the immediate aftermath of The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June in 1992 which was forwarded to the UNFCCC's Depositary, His Excellency António Guterres, the current Secretary-General of the United Nations at the Bonn conference proceedings on 10th May 2018 for COP24 meeting at Katowiche, Poland: https://unfccc.int/documents/65045 and https://www.academia.edu/36396474/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Motion_101292_for_UNFCCCs_Talanoa_Dialogue

We are in deep waters literally if the Arctic Ocean sea ice melts away summertimes as all the heat and meltwater buildup in low-lying northern Greenland Ice Sheet will be catastrophic with its surface melt, flash floods from the ocean in summer, and water accumulation within the darkened ice and under it.

Veli Albert Kallio
Vice President, Sea Reseach Society
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.

Possibly, although some have suggested that it may been as recently as 100,000 years ago.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL057188
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

Others as recently as 6,000 years ago.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004162?np=y
https://phys.org/news/2008-10-ice-arctic-ocean-years.html

I've been skeptical of assertions there have been more recent melt outs of the Arctic than during the late Pliocene warm period - which coincidentally corresponds to the last time atmospheric CO2 was this high.

I'm open to the possibility it's happened, but I haven't seen enough yet that's sufficiently definitive to convince me.

Others are welcome to post to that effect and I'll be happy to chew through them.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:38:48 PM »
It looks increasingly possible that the Laxton Sea materialises this summer as forecasted by the late University College London (UCL) researcher in his seminal forecast on the Arctic Ocean sea ice trend. Variability remains great, so the blue ocean event is perhaps, hopefully, still just a remote possibility.

March 28th, 2020:
     13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.   :P

Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final

But not as great as the 1999 UEFA Champions League final. You would need a BOE for that !  :)

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 08:51:31 AM »
Insolation levels are still very, very low and the ocean is losing heat which means there is less energy later in water as more heat is being lost when sea ice area is smallish. Later in spring this is opposite.

50
Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:42:00 AM »
S E A   R E S E A R C H   S O C I E T Y ' S   A P P E A L   T O
T H E  G O V E R N M E N T S  W O R L D - W I D E  :

WORLD GOVERNMENTS MUST LEARN FROM CORONAVIRUS EMISSIONS SHUTDOWN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are computer models of the world's atmosphere based on observations and assumptions if there are no direct information available. World emissions shutdowns are a novel opportunity to learn about how climate system responds under different circumstances that cannot be normally experimentally checked. It is vitally important for the world's governments not to shut down meteorological measurements. Indeed, efforts must increase to use opportunity to test and search regional responses of the highly unusual situation. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and national meteorological organisations must quickly come up with new research proposals to gain every possible bit of information as this helps to understand how world's climate will respond as the world moves towards ZERO emissions. It is a tremendous tragedy if this unique opportunity to find more about how our atmosphere operates is lost. We do not foresee many situations like this rising when large world regions turn their lights off one after another. Modelling SO2, N2O, O3, CFC, CO2, CH4, CO shut downs.

Sponsors, please look at serious proposals to make research offers right now!
Let's make something positive happen out of this coronavirus calamity.

Veli Albert Kallio
Vice President, Sea Research Society
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society

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