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Messages - DrTskoul

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Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 01, 2017, 01:05:55 AM »
So they lose a worthless lease.

Batteries clearly work.  EVs are clearly going to be less expensive to own than ICEVs.  Electricity is clearly going to become less expensive.

A company that can't understand that is in deep denial and is risking its future.  It's time to stop spending on exploration.  Sell what you've got as long as you've got it.  And morph into a new type of business like Statoil has done.

A new type of business ? Are they making their money from something other than oil and gas ? Is Total? Until a significant portion has f their revenue is from other sectors they still are and behave like gas and oil companies

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Powerful
« on: November 16, 2017, 08:26:31 AM »
Or wait and import from the neighbours.....I wonder where they are going to find all the electricity needed for those electric cars....

Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: November 15, 2017, 12:17:10 PM »
The linked article (and associated linked open access study reference) makes it clear that if in some last minute desperation attempt by some local group of nations (say by economically developed NH nations, which would include China by 2049) to use 'stratospheric aerosol injection' to ease their suffering; they would make the climate situation worse for others (such as for the SH nations):

Title: "Unregulated solar geoengineering could spark droughts and hurricanes, study warns"

Extract: "Artificially cooling the planet through solar geoengineering could have some dramatic side effects – including an increase in droughts and hurricanes in some regions – if it is carried out in an unregulated way, a new study warns.
I'd think that even if regulated, (by whom), the results could prove disastrous.
Regulated or not, it does not mean we know how the hell the system will respond. Talking about unintended consequences!! The results _will_ be disastrous....

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August mid monthly update)
« on: August 18, 2017, 01:30:48 PM »
Negative feedbacks have shown their hand. New records have been avoided by the thinnest of margins, yet they have also revealed that the best we can hope for is for negative feedbacks to slow down the freight train from crashing. But crash it will....

Same as previous month..3.75 - 4.25 ... back to lurking

Arctic sea ice / Re: Volume vs extent, by the numbers
« on: July 29, 2017, 04:33:29 AM »
Here's another simplified model:

Suppose we have ice with maximum thickness of 4 meters but having a continuum of all thickesses from 0 to 4m with equal area of each thickness, so that the ice thinner than 1m covers 25% of the area, ice thinner than 2m covers 50% of the area and so on.

Suppose then that all ice melts at equal rate in terms of loss of thickness. When 1 meter of thickess has melted, all ice initially thinner than 1m has melted completely, 2m thick ice has been reduced to 1m thick and so on.

Under this model the melting proceeds as follows:

loss of    loss of  loss of
thickness  area     volume
 25%        25%      44%
 50%        50%      75%
 75%        75%      94%
 90%        90%      99%
100%       100%     100%

So we get the kind of behaviour we are observing: volume is initially dropping much faster than area but both reach zero at the same time.

This model is obviously not a realistic model of arctic sea ice but it does suggest that volume dropping faster than area is a natural property of this kinds of systems.

Luxembourg also talks about forbidding thermic motors for cars around 2025, Belgium would look more up to 2030. This mean that gasoline and diesel supply might become a problem in Europe around 2030.

What are their plans for providing the extra electricity ? Saying they are banning internal combustion without concrete plans for electricity generation expansion won't achieve anything ...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 19, 2017, 12:01:08 PM »
2016 was hottest or second hottest on record across the arctic from Sep to  Dec and in the top  5 from June - Aug.  This year is unlikely to be anywhere near that hot and I would expect  the October peak to be much closer to  normal than last year.
Have you taken into consideration how there has not been any growth to speak of in 2017? There has not been one month of 'normal' ice since about mid September 2016. So if 2017 would have to pick up in being cold enough for new ice, it sure is taking long..
Seen this latest graphing by Gavin?

Distributions look like worms or slugs moving forward....

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 16, 2017, 03:00:47 AM »
"If FF demand is significantly down do you think is in FF producing companies interest to adapt or to be in denial?"

Denial, absolutely.  They are hell-bent on razing as much of the environment as they can, to make as much money as they can, in the few years they have left.  They are "adapting" even more slowly than the legacy auto makers, who at least have a clear path forward via EVs.

Edit:  They've known this day was coming for over 50 years.  And yet still deny it -- outwardly, anyway!

Every government the last 50 yrs or more in US Europe and Russia were equally knowledgeable...

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 15, 2017, 11:55:50 PM »
Here is an article I find more disturbing than the Wallace-Wells piece. It shows there hasn't been a leveling of oil or gas use there has been a continued increase. It also shows the downturn in coal may be far smaller than that reported because, as we have discussed here on the ASIF , Chine has been under reporting.

Since we sometimes ;) fault clean energy companies for being overly optimistic about the rise of renewables, I think it is appropriate to be a little skeptical of fossil fuel data from BP.  If they were to report that FF use was declining significantly, it could set off a global financial oil panic. 

For example, they forecast only 5 to 6% of cars will be electric in 2035.

We now have more detailed data on CO2 from satellites.  But that only shows total CO2, earth and human-caused, so that's not yet the answer.

If we were to have "proof" of CO2 emissions by region, I wonder what the response would be.  Denial?  Anger?  War?

Paranoid little? BP's graphs are based on publicly available data. They are not 100% or even 90% accurate but your paranoia that they are fudged is a little too much. There are monthly and weekly and daily reports of primary energy use that would have shown a significant slowdown in your scenario much faster than the annual updated BP report.

If FF demand is significantly down do you think is in FF producing companies interest to adapt or to be in denial?

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 07, 2017, 02:05:22 AM »
After looking more carefully it is a combination... right at the front it looks like freezing

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 07, 2017, 01:32:34 AM »
Click to animate July 4, 5, 6.
Trying to get the images at around the same time of day.
Looks like runoff.

Looks like it.. drainage...

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: July 06, 2017, 02:32:22 PM »
June 2017 will land around 2 ppm higher than June 2016 (406.81 ppm).

June 2017 : 408.84 , 2.03 ppm higher than June 2016... ( final? ). I thought I was going to be more off...

I trust we'll learn what "RDC", etc., mean in good time..

I was answering the above question. In the links attached there are some interesting arctic related research project for general info..

2016 Arctic Tech Evaluation newsletter:

Finally, a little news of the 2017 Healy missions (links found in June 3 post - dead-end links will be fixed as needed [and when I notice])
Cruise Line    Cruise Dates    Chief Scientist/CO    Research Topic
HLY1701    2017-07-21 to 2017-08-11    Scot Tripp    USCG RDC
HLY1702    2017-08-26 to 2016-09-15    Bob Pickart    DBO
HLY1703    2017-09-19 to 2016-10-13    Peter Worcester     CANAPE - DEEP
HLY1704    2017-10-17 to 2016-11-10    Mohsen Badiey    CANAPE - SHALLOW

I trust we'll learn what "RDC", etc., mean in good time.

Not on sea trials, apparently, but on her way to Hawaii.

Research & Development Center:

Getting us all to accept the hardships that zero is going to result in requires some knowledge of the climate system and the carbon cycle.

I see no hope in getting almost all people concerned about climate change early enough to avoid extreme climate change.  Look at the number of people in the world who misuse alcohol, tobacco and other addictive drugs.  Or who are badly overweight.  Or drive recklessly.  Those people are doing stuff that they know will almost certainly harm themselves, sometimes soon.  People just aren't going to make changes because of something that might get nasty 100 years from now. 

We have to find replacements that are as good/better and cost no more/are cheaper.  Hopefully, better and cheaper.

I see no hardships when it comes to electricity, heating, and transportation.  The replacements we have now are 'better' and cheaper.  It's just a matter of switching over.  And as we go along our replacements are very likely to get even better and even cheaper.

I haven't dealt with ag emissions.  I tend to try to stay focused on energy and transportation.

I'm not really worried about feeding our increasing population.  We can do that by cutting waste and improving ag techniques in our least productive fields.  That's not to say that we won't see a lot of hungry/starving/dying people along the way.  We tend to fix problems after they happen rather than before.  (I suspect the massive famines we've seen in the past are now no longer going to occur due to improved communication and transportation.  Problems will be more localized because of distribution problems.)

Meat and dairy are our largest food-carbon problems, I think.  We can farm with electricity and biofuels.

I'm hopeful that factory grown meat will turn out to be cheaper than hoof-raised which should greatly solve the methane belch problem.  And turning meat grazing land into forest or other carbon sink land might cancel out dairy problems.

The ag solutions have to be 1) as good as what we now eat and 2) as cheap or cheaper.  I don't think we can legislate away meat consumption on a worldwide scale until after it's too late and the globe is in a panic.

Sorry for the OT but being overweight is not equivalent to driving recklessly or even being one's choice.  Poor people's access including their ability to buy healthy food is limited to the point that they cannot escape a vicious downard spiral.

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: June 29, 2017, 07:15:13 PM »
June 2017 will land around 2 ppm higher than June 201 (406.81 ppm).

The latest 3-year plan.  Whether this is taken seriously or not, there are signs that the year 2020 will be transformative.  I say: if the U.S. representative to the G20 meeting won't cooperate on climate goals, the other leaders should ignore or openly snub him/her and get on with their efforts.  A little humiliation might be just the thing.

Three years to safeguard our climate
Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020.

Good luck..megaprojects need at least (assuming all licenses and regulatory requirements met now) 3-5 years before construction can begin and another 2-5 years before startup.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 28, 2017, 03:52:23 PM »
From the China thread:

Six Million People in China Just Went 100% Renewable for a Week
It's the first major test of renewable energy on the grid in China.
“Clean energy is the ultimate way,” Han Ti, general manager of the Qinghai grid company told local news outlet Xinhua. “We need to reduce reliance on fossil fuel, improve our energy structure, and reduce carbon emissions.”

The Qinghai province has 19.7 million kW of renewable energy installed, and makes up a little over 82 percent of all the energy production in the province. Qinghai is the fourth largest province in China, spanning the northeast part of the Tibetan plateau and has the headwaters of the two largest rivers in China, the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. Most of the energy during the test week was produced by hydro-electric power, thanks to the major rivers. Because of its renewable energy output, and the fact that it is one of the most sparsely populated regions of China, it is the ideal place to test the using only green energy.

>70% Hydro.  Worth mentioning...

Tesla is paying for the deployment of destination AC chargers that all EVs can use
Tesla operates two different charging networks. While Tesla’s Supercharger network is made of DC fast-charging stations for long distance driving, the Destination Charging network consists level 2 chargers, more specifically the ‘Tesla Wall Connector’, installed at restaurants and hotels to charge once Tesla owners arrive at their destination, hence the name.

As we already knew, the company supplies those chargers for free, officially 2 chargers, but we’ve heard of busy locations where Tesla supplied more, including covering the cost of the installation.
Electrek has talked to several business owners with Destination Chargers and some of them revealed that Tesla suggested them to install a Clipper Creek Charger, along with the Tesla Wall Connector, at no additional cost.
The total cost of those installations can easily add up to several thousands of dollars after all the equipment and installation. Yet, Tesla doesn’t even have a formal contract with the business owners – only a letter of intent to confirm that the automaker will cover the cost of chargers and the installation, while the host will cover the electricity bill....

Tesla is putting the rest of the car industry in a position where they will either have to up their game or cede more and more market to Tesla over time.

Tesla is likely to end up with the lowest manufacturing cost for a similar sized/featured EV due to their highly automated battery and vehicle factories.  Tesla isn't having to sell wholesale and let independent dealers take a cut.  As long as Tesla maintains quality while offering better charging opportunities a large portion of the EV market is likely to buy a Tesla.

How long can Tesla afford keep losing money....

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 12:28:09 PM »
If such a big cyclone gets followed by high pressure and then another cyclone, things might really start to look like Mike Tyson in his prime.
You mean beaten? Or biting? =)


I imagine rain is far better , and faster, at melting ice than sunshine?

I think if you have 2 blocks of ice , one sat in water in shade but under a constant shower of water and one sat in water in full sun the heat transfer from the constant rain would be greater than the sunshine?
Depends on how much rain it is. It takes LOTS of energy to make the solid-to-liquid transition, - basically same amount of energy per gram as it takes to increase temperature of that gram of water from 0C to 83C. So, let's say rain water comes in at some 5C temperature; then to melt roughly 1 cm of ice thickness, we'd need roughly 16 cm layer of water from such "+5C" rain water to fall. 1 meter of thickness = 16 meters of rainfall. The latter's quite unrealistic, don't you think.

It is not rainfall directly which spells doom for ice; it's related effects which the cyclone produces.

1st, winds cause wave action, steering water column of the ocean - and there is HUGE amount of heat, in most places, stored in that "mixable by strong cyclone" 100 meters water column. Easily enough to melt a meter of ice on the surface.

2nd, rain creates ponds and destroys any remaining snow cover easily, and so after cyclone is gone, much reduced albedo of ponded ice allows sun to melt things times faster.

3rd, whereever ice is in much broken shape already, waves will break it further into smaller pieces, thus increasing total surface of water-ice boundary - and summer-time this can only mean faster melt whenever any warm wind and/or more rain and/or more sunshine and/or warm water current would come next.

Rain freezing on ice is what gives the energy...

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 15, 2017, 01:25:18 PM »
Hydroelectric dams may jeopardize the Amazon's future

Hundreds of built and proposed hydroelectric dams may significantly harm life in and around the Amazon by trapping the flow of rich nutrients and modifying the climate from Central America to the Gulf of Mexico. These findings, published in Nature, emerge from a multidisciplinary, international collaboration of researchers from 10 universities, led by scientists at The University of Texas at Austin.

To meet energy needs, economic developers in South America have proposed 428 hydroelectric dams, with 140 currently built or under construction, in the Amazon basin—the largest and most complex network of river channels in the world, which sustains the highest biodiversity on Earth. The rivers and surrounding forests are the source of 20 percent of the planet's fresh water and valuable ingredients used in modern medicine.

While these hydroelectric dams have been justified for providing renewable energy and avoiding carbon emissions, little attention has been paid to the major disturbances dams present to the Amazon floodplains, rainforests, the northeast coast of South America and the regional climate, the researchers said.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 15, 2017, 01:20:53 PM »
CSP, like pumped hydro, requires a particular situation (basically, high desert near the equator). It won't be everywhere.

There many versions of csp.  A few integrated solar gas plants are already built across Mediterranean Africa and Sauidi Arabia.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 15, 2017, 02:33:56 AM »
Slightly off-topic, but it looks like Global sea ice area could hit a record low maximum soon, beating last year (graph from Wipneus):

I hope the global sea ice budget does not enter a new phase ( following last year's trajectory ) - the global albedo will see a step change.

Walking the walk / Re: What to do with PV electricity in excess ?
« on: June 14, 2017, 05:38:24 AM »
Electrolysis: separate oxygen and hydrogen (in water) and store for other uses (or sale).

Or maybe not:

Desalination, according to some.

Not such thing as H2 storage in large quantities...H2 produced is H2 used...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 11, 2017, 12:25:09 AM »
My interpretation is that ice which is thinning by bottom melt is pushed below the surface by its snow load. The snow is melted away by seawater from the floe edge inward. That the snow does not disappear quickly as soon as the ice sinks must be due to low air temperatures.
Does this make sense? 

The snow does not melt because the seawater is not warm enough to melt it.  It just sits there.  Until the seawater temperature rises above 0C it can't melt the snow.
a snowball in salt water will melt through mixing and diffusion (osmotic pressure) even below 0C

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: June 07, 2017, 05:18:12 PM »
The service factor is used with for the power sources. What percentage of the time it will be producing electricity and st what capacity. Usually one needs extra available generation capacity to account for variability outages etc. so replacing 100 MW nuclear with solar and wind + dispachabgle NG, will require >100 MW installed capacity to reliably replace nuclear.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: June 07, 2017, 04:42:05 PM »
Peak Solar is around midday, peak wind is early in morning and evening. You need both on the grid to maximize output. As a system ( solar + wind ) they will have a system or combine service factor. Actual capacity = Nominal capacity x service factor.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: June 07, 2017, 12:55:18 PM »
They will probably need to add more than that as the combined service factor of solar and wind is less than nuclear.

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: June 06, 2017, 05:58:23 PM »
In that technology I posted each module can absorb 135kg a day.

How much is that?

Really not much. To make a dent on global CO2 we'll need maybe hundreds of thousands of these things, perhaps millions.

That is a demonstration unit. Not really meant to make any dent of shorts

Consequences / Deep Ocean Mining
« on: June 06, 2017, 12:38:58 PM »
Is deep sea mining vital for a greener future, even if it destroys ecosystems? “Mining will be the greatest assault on deep-sea ecosystems ever inflicted by humans”

(The Guardian) – Mining the deep ocean floor for valuable metals is both inevitable and vital, according to the scientists, engineers, and industrialists exploring the world’s newest mining frontier.

The special metals found in rich deposits there are critical for smart electronics and crucial green technologies, such as solar power and electric cars. But as the world’s population rises, demand is now outstripping the production from mines on land for some important elements.

Those leading the global rush to place giant mining machines thousands of metres below the sea surface say the extraordinary richness of the underwater ores mean the environmental impacts will be far lower than on land. But critics say exotic and little-known ecosystems in the deep oceans could be destroyed and must be protected...

From The Guardian

Domes of frozen methane may be warning ch for new blow-outs

Several methane domes, some 500m wide, have been mapped on the Arctic Ocean floor. They may be signs of soon-to-happen methane expulsions that have previously created massive craters in a near-by area...
"Every year we go back to the dome area with our research vessel, and every year I am anxious to see if one of these domes has become a crater," says lead author of the study Pavel Serov, PhD candidate at CAGE at UiT The Arctic University of Norway.

These domes are the present-day analogue to what scientists think preceded the craters found in the near-by area, which were recently reported in Science. The craters were formed as the ice sheet retreated from the Barents Sea during the deglaciation some 12.000 years ago.

More information: Pavel Serov el al., "Postglacial response of Arctic Ocean gas hydrates to climatic amelioration," PNAS (2017).

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: June 06, 2017, 12:14:31 AM »
Temperature Swing Adsorption  (using steam or external heating for CO2 description). Commercial indeed. Nonetheless rather expensive for large scale commercialization ( cost per kg CO2 captured). I guess they use the waste heat from the incinerator. Would be better to capture the CO2 directly from the flue gas of the waste incinerator.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 03, 2017, 04:10:42 PM »
The Chinese Government has announced that they've completed the construction of the world's largest floating solar farm, and it's now producing energy.

Sungrow Power Supply have created created a 40-megawatt solar power plant, which sits atop of a flooded former coal-mining town in China's eastern Anhui province.

The concept has been floated for old mine waste ponds or process water ponds, for at least the last decade....good to see it getting implemented

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 03, 2017, 01:31:55 PM »
Unless your 2-3 % shortage comes in the dead of a cold winter or the peak of a hot summer...

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: May 31, 2017, 01:06:50 PM »
May 2017 will be 1.90 - 2.10 above May 2016 and the annual difference will increase for the rest of the year.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 28, 2017, 02:59:43 PM »
Vietnam makes a big push for coal, while pledging to curb emissions – “If the entire region implements the coal-based plans right now, I think we are finished”

Holy crap.... :o

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: May 20, 2017, 01:35:36 AM »
May 18:     410.21 ppm
May 17:     410.03 ppm
May 16:     Unavailable
May 15:     411.27 ppm
May 14:     Unavailable

all over 410 :(

We''ll be high at 420

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 17, 2017, 02:55:51 AM »
Many were tired of Deep Throat.... Many are tired of whistleblowers. That is the danger with fake news. We brand all unnamed sources as fake news. Instead we should be tired of stupidity and malice...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 12, 2017, 12:46:11 PM »
The season just started and we declare it over? No patience here...

We are down to 6th lowest on IJIS now

If no record set this year I think its just a blip year

Once the next El nino takes shape it will rip the rest of the Arctic to bits

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 12, 2017, 12:02:16 AM »
The Injustice of Atlantic City’s Floods

New Jersey's working class are forgotten as federal government funds fixes for wealthier neighborhoods

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 09, 2017, 04:31:00 PM »
This is weird.

Homeless Gasoline Tankers Are Drifting Around the Caribbean
At least three large ships awaiting delivery instructions
A few gasoline cargoes around the Caribbean Isles are looking for homes.

Three tankers holding about 1.35 million barrels of gasoline and alkylate, an octane-boosting component blended with motor fuels, are drifting with no instructions for delivery. The cargoes came from India with intent to land in the U.S., but now they’re in limbo as traders from Trafigura Group Ltd. and Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. shop around for the best selling value in the region.
“My sense of it is these may be barrels that end up in Venezuela,” Robert Campbell, head of oil products research for Energy Aspects, said by phone from New York. “They tend to bring in alkylate.”

Supplies are dangerously low in Venezuela, he said, and most of the country’s fluid catalytic cracker units that make gasoline are out of commission. Two gasoline tankers from Europe were diverted to Venezuela this week after state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela said it would boost imports after a traffic-stopping shortage in Caracas last month.

There is large need for Diesel from US refineries. As a result there is a growing glut of gasoline in US and I guess those barrels in the tankers need to find a new home. Probably are changing hands and getting traded among companies trying to maximize margins. Soon shipping costs will force the holdings companies to unload the cargo somewhere..

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 07, 2017, 02:02:35 PM »
I get your point, but right now I don't think Venezuela is exporting oil.  At times during the last year it looks like they've been oil importers.

But if a war broke out between some of the lower cost producers Venezuela and other more expensive producers could come back into the market, driving prices up.

They imported light fractions to use as diluent for their heavy oil.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 06, 2017, 04:05:28 PM »
So I would say 2.5m thick ice is also surely vulnerable, depending on latitude and mobility, possibly even thicker than that. If you put the May map side by side with the same map at the Sep min, some more insights might arise.
Here is just over 2m thick, and below that, just over 2.5m thick, for May 2.

The Beaufort barrier is gone...

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: May 05, 2017, 07:02:02 PM »
April 30:     409.98 ppm
April 29:     409.46 ppm
April 28:     409.48 ppm
April 27:     408.64 ppm
April 26:     412.63 ppm

412.63 still there for 26th.

I estimate 409.02 for April 2017, from 407.42 so up 1.6, but I could be miles out again.

Numbers are in . 409.01 for April 2017 ( excellent estimate crandles ) and 1.59 ppm up.

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