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Messages - Forest Dweller

Pages: [1] 2
1
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: November 08, 2017, 06:50:44 PM »
I wonder if anyone here has some recent/decent info on the Arctic wolves in Greenland especially?
Or even prey species involved(lemming, musk ox, hare, fox...)

The Greenland wolf research program website doesn't offer much and seems to be desperately looking for volunteers who are super-fit and able to spend "US$8,000-10,000 for one month in the field."
I'm sure they have little help or possibilities in this understandably very difficult task.
Perhaps they should start by putting an email link on their site...no contact info does not help.
https://greenland-wolf-research-program.000webhostapp.com/

Arctic wolves a.k.a. the "friendly wolves" and their prey species are likely subject to changes in climate as anything else is.
The hopelessly skittish or outdated info available indicates for Greenland some 50-60 wolves, which is of course considered way below a healthy breeding population.

Maybe for the wolves in Greenland or Canada there are trends resulting in prey abundance by CC but also genetic diversity.
Dave Mech studied the wolves on Ellesmere extensively of course and their demise is well known.
I hear it is the longest lasting wolf study ever.
The Greenland population only ever suffered hunting it seems from Scandinavia mostly, although foxes were a better source of income.

Farley Mowat is well known for Ellesmere as well and a movie about it, but disputed it seems.
Gordon Buchanan did an excellent documentary for BBC in Canada more recently named "Snow wolf family and me", which i highly recommend.
For Greenland who knows...thought i'd give it a long shot.

Images below also not reliable therefore, the range has to be changing.
And a pic by Mech that must be from Ellesmere.

2
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 06, 2017, 07:13:03 PM »
Assuming it's bad, getting worse and becoming significant soon: what to do?
That's a good question.

Better data: not nearly enough research resources are currently being allocated to the ESAS. This wouldn't affect outcome but would at least box in timing and magnitude better.

Shakhova makes a case for methane escape growing 'exponentially' rather than linearly. That could be a figure of speech or the solution to a differential equation: 'the rate of increase in methane release proportional to the current rate of methane release'.

Linear increases from slow thermal permafrost degradation could possibly be accommodated. However if the very establishment of a minor escape route leads to its physical enlargement to a major hotspot, and vigorous hotspot venting leads to explosive fountaining of regional pressurized gas stores, then the rate of methane release feeds on itself (by enlargement of the vent and conduit connectivity) and so goes up faster than linearly.

On the figure of speech side, Shakhova might just mean a whole lot more hotspots than last time they were out there. This might suggest permafrost degradation is crossing some kind of threshold across an ever-broader area. We may just happen to be here at an unfortunate one-off bad time in the late Holocene, perhaps compressed or partially brought on by anthropogenic warming.

Either way, modeling is delusional. It's all about the history and heterogeneity, for which sufficient detail will never be available. Nobody even has a talik count. Show me the scour map. Faults can be visualized at cm scale at km depth? Monitoring is all you can do.

Hope: there are a lot of steps between methane deep in the mud and methane in the greenhouse stratosphere, maybe some of them will slow or limit release to a rate that the atmosphere can accommodate.

Even in shallow water, only a fraction of the methane in bubbles actually reaches the atmosphere. That fraction rapidly increases with entrainment during rapid voluminous releases. The atmospheric half-life is fairly short, provided stratospheric hydroxyl radical supply is not overwhelmed.

Make room: reduce gratuitous greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible as soon as possible. That would include all the usual suspects such as coal and fugitive methane emissions.

The biggest single benefit with overnight effect and least societal inconvenience comes from cutting beef-belch methane (and its production-associated emissions). But banning beef because of emissions would about as popular as banning football because of concussions.

-/-/-/-/-/-/

There don't seem to be any remotely plausible geo-engineering options. Some of them seem so stupid, like laying down a giant tarp over a third of the Arctic Ocean, they aren't worth discussing. Drill and flare to CO2? How many decades have we been doing that without depleting Texas -- the ESAS is 3x the size. How much did Shell blow on just one Beaufort platform, five billion? Is there a single connected reservoir or a hundred thousand?

-/-/-/-/-/-/

Because IPCC dug themselves into such a hole with the slow CO2 narrative, they are in no position to pivot to methane. Methane is seen as a threat all right ... to their credibility. So 'policy-makers' will mainly hear methane being dissed, not that they would do anything if better informed.

Threat-proportionate action is not underway with CO2 today; even less will be done about methane as it touches two sacred western industries. Nothing can be done about ESAS methane emissions; it is wait-and-see how soon, how bad they'll get. We're not on track to make adequate headroom to accommodate even decadal-scale rapid release.

Excellent analysis A-Team.
How about not drilling the Arctic like a Swiss cheese as well?
As you quoted Shakova in your above post:
"Numerous gas blowouts followed by long-lasting gas flow have been reported from permafrost areas disturbed by exploratory drilling in Siberia, both on-land and offshore. Such gas blowouts were reported from shallow permafrost-related gas-hydrate accumulations at depths of only a few tens of metres, starting from 20 m depth.

Offshore, a particularly powerful gas discharge erupting from a well drilled through the subsea permafrost was documented in the Pechora Sea shelf; a gas–water fountain originating from 50 m beneath the sediment surface in 64 m-deep water reached 10 m above the ship. Echo sounding carried out at the drilling site 10 days after this event revealed an underwater fountain ∼10 m in diameter, with a height ∼40 m above the sea floor."

That sort of stuff is very Bermuda Triangle-ish is it not and i'm sure the IPCC has never heard of it either.
I've seen several reports and video of a Chinese rig that sank due to methane release but cannot re-find any info unfortunately.
That may wake up a few people dozing off from all the CO2 vented at climate conferences...a picture is worth a thousand words they say.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November update)
« on: November 06, 2017, 04:59:13 PM »
Yeah so the salinity is affecting readings for the thin ice particularly, from 11%-25% it seems.
Overall % though?
At which point in the year, or what year altogether is one referring to in such a case i wonder?
Seems clear that such an overestimate would become more and more the larger the area of thin ice becomes.
Perhaps it would be useful to have some corrected variations on the measurements visualized as well accounting for the time frame/amount of thin ice.

I.E. if 25% of the ice is at 1-2 feet thickness, 25% is at 2-3 feet thickness...then half of all the ice is overestimated at average 17-18% for a given time or period.
Total ice thickness over estimation would therefore be half of that again so around 8.5 to 9%.
Make sense?

4
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: October 30, 2017, 10:22:57 PM »
So unsurprising....

The decline is said to be related to both climate change and pesticides.
I'll not discuss the climate aspect but already "pesticides"is the wrong terminology and falls short.
It's pesticides, herbicides and all kinds of chemical or industrial pollution deliberate or not which play a part in all life.

It is the same limited thinking surrounding the most famous "weed killer interview" where lobbyist Patrick Moore refuses to drink some even though he claims glyphosate is 100% safe to drink.
He knows he would have gone straight to intensive care of course because as he has just explained 20 or so heavier systemic poisons are added to that crap.
Glyphosate is just the most harmless one and while we don't even know the other ingredients most idiots just keep discussing how safe glyphosate is.
Nobody sprays just glyphosate anywhere.
They spray cocktails which we know are always more harmful and that is why during my wildlife research i can see where they use it the mice or voles just sitting around in a daze or even climbing on my shoes to die on the spot.

Of course insects will die.
They are subjected to many other cocktails and poisons on top of that, and various other forms of pollution AND climate change all at once.
All are the result of industrial society, that is what it is and what it does.
The greatest destructive force ever on Earth.

Have people lost their frigging minds???
Chemical industry has done nothing since it's beginning but leave behind it a trail of millions of dead and sick creatures including us, while reaping the profits going from one product to the next before it can be banned.
Chemical industry should be closed down immediately if not all industry.

Here i see elderly people growing food or children playing sports next to the highway with the most polluted air in Europe, on fake grass filled in with poisonous ground up car tires while around them everything is sprayed and poisoned as well.
People say that is a healthy activity for kids or the elderly, while the increase in health problems and epidemics is dealt with by pharmaceuticals from the chemical industry as well.
And of course add more problems while the profits are reaped before those can be banned and replaced by the next "medicine" as well.
Of course the elderly gardeners add their own poisons to their already toxic crops...
Yes people have lost their frigging minds.

Even DDT still reaches us in spite of it being banned long ago.
Hey, we still have the factories here and happily export it to Africa so of course there is an illegal circuit and the rest comes through food imports etc.
They test plants in garden centers here and find 17 poisons on just 1 plant, half of them illegal...

We are a chemical experiment involving hundreds or more substances and we already don't care about our own health or that of our kids and pets.
So of course insects are gonna die.
Insects will not be the only ones either.

5
The rest / Re: Sushil Yadav
« on: October 20, 2017, 09:48:20 PM »
No problem Ivica.
From what i can see Yadav is a citizen of Mumbai, India.
He has a computer and nothing much else, and makes some adjustments on his writing but not much.
I could be well wrong, but the man has some seriously good logic we see happening around us and is no guru.
Of course we are all doomed, not a good message in the short term....or long.

Have a lovely weekend!

6
The rest / Re: Sushil Yadav
« on: October 20, 2017, 06:45:02 PM »
Thank you Neven  ;)

I am sure tv or Pokemon is easier!
Have a nice weekend!

7
The rest / Sushil Yadav
« on: October 20, 2017, 06:13:01 PM »
Mr. Yadav's take on our current predicament is here.
It is very boring....read it.

http://www.envirolink.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2915

8
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: October 18, 2017, 08:04:53 PM »
A changing future for gray whales:

http://climateinterpreter.org/features/archive/201512

Gray whales, like anything under global warming migrate further north.
Gray whales, though limited to the Northern Pacific may be using the Northwest Passage to recolonize the Atlantic and have turned up in Barcelona, Israel and Namibia.

On the other hand 1 of the 2 Pacific populations that exist, the western population is thought to be lost and smaller migrations to and from the one remaining eastern population are observed.

So predominantly whales are moving east in the Pacific, rare Russian whales being seen in US.
Whales are moving north in general and spending more time there.
But in the Arctic they are more often seen to the west as well.
Turning up in Siberia as far as the Laptev Sea, and other whales apparently even going right through the Arctic east, all the way down to the Atlantic and Southern Africa.

9
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: October 18, 2017, 09:07:05 AM »
A follow up on the polar bear cub found 700 km south in Siberia.
Seems it is not the only one doing so and seeking out humans.

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/new-polar-bear-star-of-moscow-zoo-is-symbol-of-a-dire-problem-for-species-caused-by-climate-change/

10
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:22:06 PM »
Landfall in Japan here for the 22nd at sustained windspeed 191 kmph per GFS.

11
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 17, 2017, 02:48:36 PM »
Another big cyclonic storm here expected to head for general area of Japan while strengthening.
This is 4 days from now in the image.

12
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 17, 2017, 12:48:36 PM »
Pretty amazing how Ophelia forced a bunch of flights to land in a hurry for suspicion of fire, sucking up smoke it seems from Iberian wildfires.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-41639386

Apparently Saharan dust as well though, causing strangely colored reddish glowing skies.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-41635906

Either or both appear to have effect in Netherlands today where the sky and sun looked rather strange too.

13
Arctic Background / Prehistoric life in the Arctic, human and other.
« on: October 12, 2017, 02:17:11 PM »
I could not find a suitable topic for this so thought to start one.
It's easy to forget just how far back Arctic background and exploration goes between all the focus on climate and modern times.
As general expectations are that thawing permafrost will yield more and more finds there may well be some interesting discoveries ahead.

If not already....spears from up to 28,000 years old made from mammoth and rhino here;

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/is-this-proof-early-man-weaponised-ivory-from-woolly-mammoth-tusks-to-killwoolly-mammoths/

The article links to an earlier one with better geographical info.

14
Wow, just stumbled in here as well by chance.
I could not believe how our Dutch media failed to report this so i googled it in Dutch just to be sure.
It looks like it was indeed hardly mentioned, 1 major newspaper is all that popped up with a little article.
Respect and RIP.

15
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: October 04, 2017, 08:23:01 AM »
A bit off topic i guess, interesting theory nonetheless.
Was Novaya Zemlya a safe haven during the ice age?

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/to-bee-or-not-to-bee-unique-bumblebee-in-arctic-is-identified-as-new-species/

16
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: October 04, 2017, 08:19:25 AM »
Polar bears straying far south in Siberia, with video;

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/lost-but-happy-eating-fish-the-polar-bear-that-strayed-700-km-too-far-south/
Maybe he is just trying to avoid the brutally cold Siberian winter lol.

Maybe has some brown bear genes haha  ;) The bear cub is pretty strange though apart from the adult. The Russians think mom is looking for it...

18
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 26, 2017, 09:34:49 PM »
Amazing the impact of this season, surely a record damage year if not in certain meteorological factors.
In both material and human cost.
It would seem appropriate for authorities everywhere to start thinking in better food/water/shelter emergency supplies and capabilities, as that is their primary task anyway.
Can't hurt to have a few hundred thousand liters of water and meals sheltered rather than waiting for planes to land on destroyed runways etc.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: September 26, 2017, 09:11:35 PM »
What i noticed with Maria was some high speed winds crossing the equator south int he jet stream.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2017, 08:59:07 PM »
The perennial confusion on the forums over what 'seasonally ice-free' means allows just about any futuristic belief system to flourish.

If you think there there must be a perfect low albedo match between open water and a cloud-free peak solar isolation season (6 weeks on each side of on the June 21st solstice) for it to 'count', that's a long ways off because melt hardly gets underway in early May now and doesn't peak until mid-September. Thermal lag isn't going away any time soon.

If you think there there must be a fairly good match between open water in regional seas and peak isolation for it to 'count', that's already here for the peripheral seas such as Chukchi, Barents, Beaufort, Bering, ESS, Laptev. The Chukchi did not freeze over until mid-December 2016, opened already in early June 2017 and has been totally ice-free now for months.

If you think that Arctic amplification of global warming is all about albedo, you're completely wrong. It's primarily a fall and winter effect of clouds and radiation imbalance over reduced sea ice. And what's happening in the Arctic today isn't staying in the Arctic.

The animations below revisit SMOS, the preferred satellite instrument for measuring thin ice (less than a meter thick). UH considers it fairly worthless in melt season and stops updating their image archive in mid-April. They've got a new paper out on it however, https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/1607/2017/tc-11-1607-2017.pdf

Meanwhile UB continues to post their daily thin ice report. The first 25 days of this month are shown below, along with a comparison to UH sea ice concentration for the 25th. UB is showing a lot of thin ice poleward of Wrangel whereas AMSR2 has somewhat reduced ice concentration. Only ice less than 0.5 m is colored according to the legend. SMOS isn't able to locate 0.5 to 1.0 m ice this time of year. The agreement with ESRL ice thickness isn't stellar.

UB SMOS might also be worth comparing later on to ESRL thickness products which do not use this satellite. However, while UH provides their netCDF files, UB does not. That, plus a very small UB graphic in a peculiar color scheme, puts quantitative comparison with ESRL out of reach.
[/quote]

Thank you A-Team,

that explains some things even to a novice like myself.
Any thoughts on that polyanna which seems quite big?
Or is that a regular pehenomenon?

21
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 17, 2017, 10:41:23 AM »
Just when you been sitting on the edge of your seat and think you can relax, this season has you right back with nailbiting stuff.
Maria seems determined to either redo Irma, or just take out what Irma had missed for sake of completion on Hispaniola and elsewhere.
Or a bit of both.
The Red Cross and others must not be getting much sleep these days.
We should do a crowdfunding effort to give them free coffee first, so they can keep giving water to the victims.
Jokes aside, i hope preparations are scaled up everywhere.

22
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 16, 2017, 04:24:55 PM »
That is what our industrial culture calls paradise usually Rob, they pay big bucks to travel such places and usually destroy them too.
I believe this shot is after the great pacific tsunami from sattelite, during a fly-over to check up on them by Indian gvnmt as well it turned out they were fine...enough said.

23
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 16, 2017, 04:10:57 PM »
Those Tesla setup's look nightmarish to me actually and have me wondering how on Earth people think we can replace energy demands with other finite resources and limited possibilities?

What a strange remark. Kauai just switched to almost 100% renewable energy with that Tesla solar plant/battery system. And they lowered electricity cost from 30ct/kWh to 11ct/kWh.

The only people for which that is 'nightmarish' is the fossil fuel industry, since the Kauai example can be replicated everywhere.

Solar power is not a 'finite resource' in the practical sense. We can easily power the entire planet with solar/battery if we just had the guts to upscale. And for 11ct/kWh that can be done at competitive (to fossil fuel) cost.

Staying on topic, it doesn't look very hurricane-proof to me either... ;)

Solar systems in hurricane prone areas are designed to withstand at least 140 mph winds.

Ah here is one more advantage of using the Tesla solar/battery combination. This one at residential level :
https://www.fastcompany.com/40467003/during-irmas-power-outages-some-houses-kept-the-lights-on-with-solar-and-batteries

I'm sure that would seem strange to many Rob, as they only consider the factor of industrial society's energy needs and potential.
To me there is no such thing as renewable energy however.
You don't need an energy source except food.

Look at the big picture, what are solar panels, windmills etc made of?
What resources shall we deplete, what child labour and slavery employ etc?
What environmental destruction shall we cause covering all of industrial dominated Earth with so called renewable energy sources?
It will buy climate some time perhaps yes.
It will piss off the fossil fuel industry yes, although they are probably powerful enough to dominate new markets as well.
The cost to our living planet will still be enormous, not renewable at all.
Oddly enough the people on North Sentinel haven't needed to worry about these predicaments for the last 60,000-80.000 years.
They live on 9 square miles mate...do you see what i'm getting at?
Fields of solar panels are a nightmarish sight compared to their tiny island, look it up!
Look it up and be impressed with their track record, compared to which ours is just a smelly fart in time.
So therefore i would always consider any industrialized location on Earth a nightmare compared to a natural location yes.

Here is a picture of that place looking much better then, sorry i almost forgot.
Tell me how a solar power setup does not look a nightmare compared to that ok?
 ;)

24
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: September 15, 2017, 09:02:49 AM »
Great idea to have this topic wili.
And there definitely is a lot more to observe than just the emaciated polar bears indeed.
A lot comes to mind.
From "grolars" to reindeer, the Alaskan orca's failing to reproduce, to the life forms on the sea floor.
If i see any interesting studies i will try to post, thanks mate.

25
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 15, 2017, 08:47:09 AM »
Statements like this :

The White House is only 54 feet above sea level.  If Jose went up the Chesapeake Bay, I think the
White House could flood.  Maybe that would wake up some skeptics. 

and this
We need to be shocked into action and deadly global catastrophes are the only way this will happen....say a deadly heatwave in the Southwest U.S. that kills 150,000.

are not helping at all.

If they were to happen they would be regarded as 'fluke' events and for good reason.
Global warming and climate change and sea level rise so far happen slowly but steadily.
And that is troublesome enough.

If there are any climate trigger points that lead to abrupt climate change, then we will see this only after a number of years in a row result in the same catastrophes, and then it will be too late anyway.

It's much more constructive to look at the bright side of what we can do to change, before it is too late. The island of Kauai sets an example :
https://electrek.co/2017/06/21/tesla-solar-powerpack-kauai-drone-video/

I agree Rob, but statements like that based on emotions are to be expected i guess.
Those Tesla setup's look nightmarish to me actually and have me wondering how on Earth people think we can replace energy demands with other finite resources and limited possibilities?
Staying on topic, it doesn't look very hurricane-proof to me either... ;)

26
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 15, 2017, 08:29:37 AM »
GFS for the 20th, which is not too long term outlook.
José grazing New York and more worryingly a fast developing powerful storm in roughly the same area affected by Irma.
National Hurricane Center gives that one 80% chance of developing in 5 days as well.

The mood is still grim in both the French and Dutch side of St. Maarten and this can't be helping.
I'm not impressed with the Dutch efforts to provide aid so far at all, no thinking outside of the box and little understanding of the desperate situation.
While they were too worried to land planes down there the US planes evacuated their people just fine and the locals felt deserted for it.
They never even considered airdropping which is what C130 planes are good at and would have been a sign of hope at least.

The not yet named storm seems like it will hit some islands whichever way it goes, let's hope it does not ravage places already in shambles...

27
Permafrost / Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« on: September 13, 2017, 10:16:40 AM »
The interesting bit to me being:

"It is all about monitoring,' said Dr Sinitasky.

'I know that oil and gas producing companies have maps of such objects and monitor them constantly.

'I have heard that for example Gazprom-Dobycha Yamburg make punctures and release gas to avoid eruption risk.

'When I was working at VNIIGAZ, I made a map of such objects for Gazprom.'

He said: 'The companies are very interested in minimising risks, they do not need any accidents, so they make maps and observe these objects very closely.

'As for the general map of such objects... The Institute of Oil and Gas Problems keeps a database on sites being discovered using satellite data.
The Earth Cryosphere Institute probably has its own database.'

Puncturing pingo's ey?
It would be nice if the good folks at Gazprom shared some footage of that...

28
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 12, 2017, 05:30:50 PM »
More trouble looming in the Pacific for Vietnam, China, Taiwan and Japan coming days.
Some bizarre reports down here today from St. Maarten describing a crazy situation happening at the Zoo.
It seems hungry people are raiding it taking monkeys and snakes for food.

29
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 10, 2017, 02:19:47 PM »
A bit of GFS perspective on tiny Keys and big storms here;
(changes underwear)

30
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 09, 2017, 08:50:58 PM »
"Touch of good news...eyewall of Cat. 4 #Jose missed #Irma ravaged #Barbuda. (Radar: MeteoFrance)"

Thanks Sigmetnow for that.
Some crazy speculations about José aren't helping so far.
Hopefully some sort of sense of security now can be seen in this area on the islands.
What concerns me along with the rest so far is the situation on St. Maarten, involving the shortages and abandonment.
Very good news no double hit for them and Barbuda.

31
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 09, 2017, 11:52:12 AM »
A plea for help from a St. Maarten resident, one of many.
José will have to make quite a turn to avoid Barbuda and possibly St. Maarten.
Nailbiting stuff.

Emile van der Weerd;
18 uur ·
Please try to get this in the news!!! Sept 11. Post Hurricane update: island is still in chaos, people are not poorly/not informed by government officials, no clear communication channels, no cars with megaphones trying to inform, help and advice, no water supply, no food supply, all supermarkets are compromised and empty by now. Although we see some marines at critical road junctions, security and safety is a major potential issue. People will do anything to get foods and water, even if this means to rob houses!! This WILL happen if we don't get more help from police/marines. They need to secure entrances of all areas and resorts!! It's also adviced to have food packages air drops from airplanes. The sooner, the better. Also I don't see any help from medical care and advice on how to deal with sanitair and waste, this WILL CAUSE epidemics if not managed and controlled. Is not clear to all (who dont have communication) what the next Hurricane José is about and how to prepare. We try to spread the news because due to all the debris, broken houses and expected heavy rain, this can be even worst than Irma. About us: we are still good and we will be for at least another week due to good supply. I am helping neighbours with their houses, safety and information distribution. I am trying to get hold of government to see if I can help organizing and prioritising. If someone reeds this, I have all the skills and spirit, I want to do MORE to help the people of Sint Maarten. I try to be online every day around this time so please PM me. With good spirit and Hugs for now and again, know I am triving and excelling in these situation.

32
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 09, 2017, 10:25:59 AM »
It is almost surprising how there was a brief moment when Irma wasn't causing major damage.
Now Cuba's turn is up...
There is a little place called Ragged Island that just took the worst Irma has to offer.
Population 72, all descendants from original settlers apparently.
I can't imagine much is left of it by now if anything.

33
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 08:45:47 PM »
USGS quakes and faultlines.

34
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 08:39:54 PM »
Sigmetnow; a quake was shown by USGS between Puerto Rico/Hispaniola right where Irma passed and destroyed.
Interestingly, that fault runs straight to the Chiapas 8.1....


35
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 08:30:13 PM »
Daniel B.;  Models appear to graze Cuba, which would indeed suck up some of Irma's energy.
Main island Bahamas as well, to their misfortune.
Then there is a bit of potential again as she nears Florida and not much buffers.
I ain't betting on anything but the models...good luck to all.

36
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 08:13:17 PM »
Gerontocrat; yes, especially Barbuda it seems.
Dutch navy is saying they might move away for José from St. Maarten to keep the ships safe.
Pussies if you ask me.
The marines on St. Maarten now are tolerating looting of food/water and also theft until more help arrives.
They are said to number around 40 now and José might impede reïnforcement.
1 airplane only has been active and criticism of the Dutch government is increasing as citizens report shooting and gangs with machetes etc.
Although overall impression is not violent and chaos yet, potential is there it seems.
Dutch had better get off their ass IMHO.

37
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 07:27:07 PM »
Reports trickling in from Virgin Islands have recorded wind speed at 360 kmph, or 224 mph.
That would be a record?
Wow, and expectations are this wench Irma has not shown us her worst yet.
I don't see much from Turks, Caicos, Bahamas yet but it was a little less heavy there, more vulnerable though it appears.
Florida may well record an unfathomably even stronger wind with all the monitoring equipment present.

38
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 06:42:44 PM »
Landfall per GFS, sunday.
Everglades has the moisture and temperature Irma thrives on it seems.
Far inland, nice and shallow.
Beckwith mentioned water on land recently before this outlook, in relation to landfall of cyclonic storms.
If it is significant here is the optimal test case i guess.

39
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 07, 2017, 12:58:37 PM »
Yeah everyone, be careful out there and don't underestimate the threat.
In the meantime here's a good laugh;

Check out this beautiful luxury resort in St. Maarten on sale at Sotheby's for a mere 17 million US dollars.
You can rent it for 20,000 bucks a night.
Owner: Donald Trump
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-3989-qz6f4w/chateau-des-palmiers-terres-basses-mi-97150

Next up; Mar a Lago
Oh sweet irony.....

40
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 07, 2017, 11:30:20 AM »
It seems FPL is planning 2 more reactors at Turkey Point as well because it's nice "clean energy".
Hmm, we shall see i s'pose...maybe someone can put a webcam up there quick and we can see even better.
Dutch newspaper reporting 8 dead in St. Maarten now and looting in progress.
90% buildings damaged/destroyed, at least 60% homeless.
Dutch navy/marines arriving today with priority to reopen the airport for relief efforts.
I don't see much news from the Virgin Islands yet.
It looks very grim especially for Turks & Caicos/Bahamas next.

41
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: September 06, 2017, 09:34:35 AM »
Not much info on South America but the situation seems equally bad.


42
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 04, 2017, 03:57:19 PM »
With GFS too inaccurate still for giving more details about the US East coast scenario with Irma, it is becoming more likely Cuba will be struck all over pretty much.
It would be nice if she left Haïti alone...

43
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 15, 2017, 04:47:02 PM »
Sierra Leone death toll 300+ now and 600 missing they are reporting here.
Indeed !!!
The reason given is...well i always loved the simplicity of this little cartoon here.

45
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: August 01, 2017, 07:15:11 AM »
Beckwith has some new videos discussing the book "Scale" and several related papers.



"For every 18 F (10 C) rise in temperature the metabolic rate doubles & thus the rate of living (pace of life) doubles.

The Paris agreement aims for a maximum 2 C (3.6 F) temperature rise, yet this change leads to a 20% to 30% increase in metabolic rate, and thus also growth & mortality rates. This is mind-boggling. The pace of almost all biological life across all size scales increases 20 to 30% from just a 2 C temperature rise.

This will wreak havoc on ecosystems; in fact the entire planetary ecology. Including global food supply."

Interesting stuff, i'm sure there will be controversy...

46
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 01, 2017, 07:06:45 AM »
Nullschool is projecting a severe blow for south Japan 6 days from now.


47
Consequences / Re: What can BLUE do for YOU?
« on: July 24, 2017, 08:36:12 AM »
I suspect < 1 million square km of ice will still leave room for denial, given there are no other major events.
And indeed a louder call for action to go along with that.
The overpopulation crowd will rant about population etc etc.
The IPCC will be blamed i'm sure.
But mostly people will adhere to business as usual, what else do they know after all?

48
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: July 22, 2017, 06:19:06 PM »
Hurricane Train fizzling out, Typhoon Express on the way?

An impressive sight to see.

I believe there have recently now been 7 hurricanes forming in the northeast Pacific, 4 visible here with the strongest closer to Hawaii.
But the relatively low SSTA appears to protect the islands so far as they weaken.

The same cannot be said for Japan/Phillipines etc on the other side where much of the water is above 30 C.
3 much larger rotations building and getting awful close.

49
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 20, 2017, 01:33:04 PM »
BC looks bad indeed.
Highlighted the carbon monoxide here in Yosemite, with 3 major hotspots in North America at the moment.

50
Science / Re: Exiting The Anthropocene
« on: July 17, 2017, 10:57:21 AM »
What most of us describe as the anthropocene, i call the industrialicene.
We concern ourselves about the industrial impact on the living planet 99% of the time and blame humanity.
To a much lesser degree we recognize the impact of a once dominant agrarian society, such as deforestation in Europe.
The problems were still nothing compared to modern day.
To absolutely no degree at all we recognize the fact how hunter gatherers lived for millions of years sustainable and still do, human or not.
The best example being North Sentinel island, which is a pea-sized speck in the ocean but has a estimated history of at least 60.000 years human occupation by hunter gatherers.
We would book a holiday there for it still looks like paradise except they would likely shoot an arrow up your butt.
They are humans, but not responsible for the so called "anthropocene".
They watch our industrial crap wash up on the beaches.
Industry is the dominant force on Earth not humans.
Industrialicene......



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