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Messages - Forest Dweller

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1
Hurricane in Spain?

So i was just planning some field trips and checking what weather is headed towards Holland on Ventusky...and this popped up seemingly out of nowhere at Coruña, northern Spain.
Around 19:00 tonight wind gusts reach 150 kmph.
Category 2 strength is 155 kmph.....those people are lucky it is not turning inland but spinning off towards France/Wales.
Not far away i measured winds at 172 kmpu!
That must have to do with the topography, mountains/valleys i am sure.
I kind of have this fantasy to go camping around there because of the beautiful area.
I'm all over that now, can't imagine being in my cheap ass tent with the equivalent of a supercar at full speed driving through it  ;D

2
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: January 13, 2019, 11:27:28 AM »
FD - the rhinos are safe - extinction postponed for another day ...

Tsunami hits Sunda Strait Beach, What is the fate of Javan rhinos? - (use Google Translate)
http://www.mongabay.co.id/2018/12/25/tsunami-hantam-pantai-selat-sunda-bagaimana-nasib-badak-jawa/

Quote
Mamat Rahmat, Head of the Ujung Kulon National Park (TNUK), confirmed that the tsunami had reached the national park area. ... "Estimates in the field, water reaches 20-50 meters from the shoreline," ... Mamat stated that the condition of the Javan Rhino ( Rhinoceros sondaicus) was safe after the tsunami.

Rhinos gathered in the middle of the forest and the southern edge of the coast. While those [beaches] affected by the tsunami are in the north - the Sumur Subdistrict, Pandeglang Regency, Banten, which is the entrance to TNUK, is the area directly affected by the disaster.



Infrared camera monitoring shows that the rhinos spent most of their time in areas with an elevation of between 9-15 meters and distances to the coastline of 412-855 meters.

Monitoring the condition of the area affected by the tsunami was carried out directly by WWF-Indonesia National Rhino Officer Ridwan Setiawan , while evacuating the communities around Ujung Kulon.
Quote

Thank you for the article vox_mundi. I read at least two park rangers were killed by the tsunami.
The link inside the article was interesting as well, examining the role of the 1883 eruption on the rhino population. They think hunting by my fellow Dutchmen contributed more to the loss of populations. Not enough data to know what the eruption and tsunami did really. That tsunami was up to 30 meters i believe.  A much smaller one would be disastrous already.
I have a soft spot for these little rhino since i worked with WWF on their cousins in Vietnam.
(last one poached 2010)

3
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 23, 2018, 05:54:59 PM »
Thanks Vox_mundi.
I'm hearing reports now that the wave was smaller, let's hope so.
I did not know other researchers had studied the tsunami threat to these little rhino.
It really does not take 80% of them to die by a 10 meter tsunami however.
If just a few animals with breeding potential are gone that could well be the end of them.
Fingers crossed....XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

4
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 23, 2018, 04:14:59 PM »
To be honest, and off topic perhaps...all i care about for now is those almost extinct Javan rhino.
I worked hard with the WWF researchers to save their relatives in Vietnam, extinct April 29th 2010.
With the program directors we set up a project to better represent other National Parks, whose websites are all run by stupid travel agencies.
Ujong Kulon would have been the first NP to receive a free website from me focusing on wildlife instead of tourist dollars. Staff training on the computer and so on...
The reason those Javan rhino were not easily poached so far has to do with the fact it is a peninsula and hard to reach for poachers...now a tsunami comes along.
If i learn those guys were victims i will be really pissed off and sad.
If anyone has news in the coming period about the park please share here thanx.

5
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 23, 2018, 03:29:32 PM »
Al Jazeera article about Sunda strait tsunami;
Although the picture of Krakatoa is from September it looks as if there has already been collapse of the south-east flank here on Anak Krakatau.
We will have to wait for clouds to disappear from the area and compare on satellite.
The rhino area is according to Indonesian Disaster Management Board in the worst affected area.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/deadly-tsunami-hits-coastal-towns-indonesia-sunda-strait-181223083551404.html

6
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 23, 2018, 02:31:40 PM »
Incoming news of the Anak Krakatau now mentioning Sumatra was also hit by tsunami waves.
Runup height reported from Java at 19 meters and death toll steadily rising.
Seismologists calling for a re-scan of the ocean floor.
Tsunami alarm did not go off until the waves had struck already.
What worries me most is the fact that the last 50 Javanese rhino live on the peninsula there at Ujong Kulon NP.
Contrary to the other areas that is a low area, mangroves, marshes, river estuaries where tsunami would have much bigger impacts.
The rhino are a familiar sight on the beach or use marshy areas and any loss could be disastrous for the species...

7
The politics / Re: Brazil just elected a fascist
« on: November 08, 2018, 01:30:02 PM »
Ok, i am no fan of Bolsonaro either but i think there are a few misconceptions people have about The Amazon, indigenous and so on.

-Encroachment, deforestation and similar problems are actually worse in other provinces such as Acre or western Brazil.(or neighboring countries)
The Living Planet report just released mentions how from 1970-2014 The Amazon lost 20%.
Rather alarmingly, it also mentions how population decline of wildlife is worst in places such as river, estuaries etc at 83% overall, and how Central and South America overall is showing a 89% loss even!

- Similarly the situation of the indigenous people is also worse in those already more affected areas, while Amazonia still offers more refuge.
Tribes such as the Akuntsu, Munduruku or others who gained fame often actually live elsewhere or emerge from tiny remaining forest patches in more developed areas, or also places like Peru or Colombia.
This offers some hope that others remain unidentified in the heart of the Amazon.
I suspect many do myself.
You can find a truly excellent database here btw: https://pib.socioambiental.org/en/Table_of_Indigenous_Peoples

So in general concerning "the lungs of the Earth" what we appear to see is an encirclement working it's way inward from the edges and damaging habitat in the process.
For logistical reasons, it may not be that different under Bolsonaro in that respect and would still take a long time to truly destroy the Amazon.
(Of course his loathing of the indigenous and the habitat remains outrageous)
Climate change may do more damage and considerably faster through factors such as droughts and failure to cope evolutionary in time.
A study over the last 30 years which i just read speaks of how this is mostly affecting smaller species of trees.
Taller and more drought resistant vegetation less affected but still in trouble nonetheless.
No link for that, it has been paywalled sorry.

We'll have to wait and see of course but Bolsonaro is neither the first or only hard ass to mention he doesn't care about it all and placing industrial activity before environment.
That has been happening historically anyway and he may do outrageous things but i doubt it is possible for his regime to ramp it up by 200% or whatever out of the blue.

8
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: October 30, 2018, 03:36:00 PM »
Concerning rates of extinction i believe they are also under estimated.
We don't fully know to begin with, and many species are more or less artificially kept around in minute numbers, in ridiculously small remaining parts of the original habitat by all sorts of measures, volunteers and so on.
Or even just in zoos, private collections.
The well known remark about tigers for instance is how there are more in captivity than in the wild.
If we look at a species such as Javan rhinoceros yes there are still around 50-60 in Ujong Kulong NP.
So they are not officially extinct, but their tiny safe peninsular remaining habitat is still besieged and lucky to be an easily protected geographical feature.
To all intents and purposes they are extinct apart from that.
Their relatives in Vietnam (R. S. Annamiticus) had no such luck of course and the last one was poached April 30, 2010 in spite of being the main conservation poster child inside the Cat Tien NP.
We keep a lot of those poster childs symbolically and even fail at that.

9
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: October 30, 2018, 01:48:05 PM »
The Living Planet report 2018 is out:
https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-2018

Some of the more striking figures:

- Populations of mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians have, on average, declined by 60% between 1970 and 2014, the most recent year with available data.

- 83% decline in rivers, lakes, estuaries.

- 89% decline in Central and South America particularly.

Considering this is just about a 44 year period since 1970, i'm sure the real percentages must be significantly higher still.
So i guess that means in South America for example more than 9 out of 10 animals are gone?
Maybe new president Bolsonaro in Brazil can destroy the rest and go for the full 100%?
Truly shocking.... :-[

Also in the news today, it seems China has lifted the ban on rhino horn and tiger products.
What a bright idea.

10
Science / Re: Early Anthropocene
« on: October 25, 2018, 04:32:12 PM »


The "megafauna extinction" by immigration of early hunter-gatherers, as pointed out in Terry's post indeed seems very flawed.
There is a similar one for Australia which seems to match chronologically but has little else going for it as well.
In America, we're talking a handful of primitive people wiping out 37 species, predators and prey, species of no interest whatsoever to humans.
Highly unlikely and not, as often thought happening overnight but over thousands of years.
The other main argument against this theory being of course, that if arrival of a few primitive people could have such massive effect then why is this not the case everywhere?
Why are there elephants, hippo's and lions in Africa when it is the cradle of mankind?

I hesitate to wade into this topic, as, for some reason, folks get really worked up over it. Probably because it speaks to something fundamentally unsavoury about our species and poses serious issues about how we can achieve true sustainability.
But, well, here goes.
While we may never have real time video of early humanity causing mass extinctions whenever they arrive in a new place, it beggars belief that EVERY TIME a new land is colonized, the indigenous mega fauna is decimated.
Forest Dweller characterizes early Americans as primitive. In actual fact, early Americans were no more primitive than all of us on this forum.
Also, a very small amount of ecosystems science education shows us that the animals that are characterized as being of little interest to humans are dependent on an ecosystem disrupted by the removal of the easy prey.
And, finally to answer the question about why mega fauna persisted (until modern times) in Africa and South Asia- that is where humanity evolved, and so the animals were able to learn coping strategies over hundreds of thousands of years.
I could bang on but I shan't!
For a deeper yet accessible examination one could do a lot worse than read "The Call of Distant Mammoths " by Professor Peter D. Ward, University of Washington.
ISBN 0-387-98572-7

Sebastian, i wasn't necessarily characterizing the 1st Americans as primitive beings, it's just the general term people use for those hunter-gatherers and i agree they were far from it.

Looking at some of the other recent comments;
I also did not say it is a good argument how megafauna in current Africa disproves the American megafauna diaspearance by humans.
I just said it is the main argument being used, not necessarily mine.
Some of the comments are really good, mentioning water sources, co-evolution versus new arrival of humans, regional differences and so on.

And you are correct Sebastian, why does this topic get people so worked up often?
Your suggestion about the implications concerning our species and sustainability is the best i can think of too, although it's not exactly like we feel very close to those early ancestors.
Maybe we just also like to think our modern "civilized" people are doing better, smarter...bit of vanity involved?

Safe to say, that either side of the discussion about human megafauna extinction requires a lot more evidence...video would be nice yes haha! ;D
Of course we haven't even mentioned any scenario with several contributing factors, including arrival of humans or not....
The best argument against the human caused extinction(as the only or decisive reason) to my mind would actually be how small human population was at the time, and the involved time span of the extinction.
2nd best argument would be the variety of species gone as i mentioned.
And sure, i understand cascading effects can affect species not of interest to humans too but that is still a lot of species.

Anyway, thanks all for your input.
The less we know, the more interesting it gets....
Full breakdown by our friends at Wikipedia here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_extinction_event

11
Science / Re: Early Anthropocene
« on: October 21, 2018, 01:28:33 PM »
Concerning the Americas i find it entirely plausible there was earlier human presence than that of acknowledged Siberian origins leading up to Clovis culture.
There's a few theories out there, the well known Polynesian theory of course, genetic matches between Japan and Chile, even a poorly based theory of aboriginal people from Australia reaching South America 40,000 years ago.

It's worth noting that in South America especially, traces of occupation disappear very quickly.
Percy Fawcett the famous explorer was looking for cities in the jungle carved from stone which is of course not present over there.
Thus, only recently have we surmised that pre-columbian culture was not so much nomadic hunter-gathering but actually an enormous sedentary agricultural society as well including roads and water management.
Their "cities" were just not like our centralized versions of them with agriculture around them but rather a network incorporating both everywhere.
The Amazon is not the virgin wild forest we tend to think it is, but also shaped by man.

Most interesting for early occupation of America is the Solutrean hypothesis as presented by Dennis Stanford.
I do believe there is some contradictory DNA evidence but it fails to explain some of the dates going back to 18-20,000 years, and the lithic evidence which is very striking indeed...you be the judge:


The "megafauna extinction" by immigration of early hunter-gatherers, as pointed out in Terry's post indeed seems very flawed.
There is a similar one for Australia which seems to match chronologically but has little else going for it as well.
In America, we're talking a handful of primitive people wiping out 37 species, predators and prey, species of no interest whatsoever to humans.
Highly unlikely and not, as often thought happening overnight but over thousands of years.
The other main argument against this theory being of course, that if arrival of a few primitive people could have such massive effect then why is this not the case everywhere?
Why are there elephants, hippo's and lions in Africa when it is the cradle of mankind?


12
Science / Re: Early Anthropocene
« on: October 21, 2018, 12:22:12 PM »
This is a great topic, that i somehow managed to miss so far.
I personally like to see a scientist such as Ruddiman present their own work so here is a link for that:

Convincing to say the least.

I'd be cautious drawing any conclusions concerning our anthropological background.
We're barely scratching the surface yet it seems, dates and theories are adjusted all the time therefore.
Just a few surprising discoveries from the past year alone:

- Sapiens not 200,000 years old but 300,000 at Jebl Irhoud, Morocco
  (notice the location is also completely unexpected)

- Neanderthal man began the famous cave art in Europe, not our species. 60,000 + years dated.

- Neanderthal man did not just have sex with us, but also with the Denisovans:
  http://siberiantimes.com/science/profile/features/peek-inside-the-siberian-cave-where-inter-species-love-child-denny-lived-90000-years-ago/

More and more the picture emerges that well...everybody had sex with anybody.
It would not surprise me to see a discovery being made that concludes the same for H. Erectus or others.
Dmanisi, Georgia finds are very interesting in that context as well.
They don't fit anything well at all and even differ greatly from each other, yet are found together.
Sex is a pretty big thing after all, or to put it more in biological terms, reproduction is probably the primary driving force in nature.
Where there is a possibility, inter-species reproduction can be seen occurring today in cases such as the coywolf or the "grolar" for example.(grizzly x polar bear)
I'm pretty sure that if i were stuck on an island with a nice Neanderthal or Denisovan girl there would be some hanky panky going on... ;D

I do tend to agree about the terminology of the anthropocene being roughly equated to the holocene.
It is not unusual to divide these periods up so perhaps we should speak of "early anthropocene", "middle/late anthropocene" and so on.

The post WW2 spike is indeed interesting as well and i have a very simple explanation for myself about that.
As industrial activity ramps up in the 20th century it's first kept busy by 2 enormous(and horrendous) world wars.
Then the atomic bomb is used for the 1st time scaring the living crap out of everybody...war takes a step back.
This is when industrial focus shifts to our daily lives, this is when we all start getting our cars, tv sets, motorized lawnmowers, washing machines and so on.
A huge impact among a growing population results...the late anthropocene perhaps?

13
The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: September 19, 2018, 01:42:21 PM »
Dunno bout you guys but lately i have started my day off by watching a Sacha Baron Cohen video in the morning from his new movie "Who is America?"
And every day i find myself spitting out my coffee and pissing myself laughing.  :P

You shouldn't miss these two if you like that sort of thing.

Spencer resigned after this one.....


Roy Moore is suing SBC for 93 million bucks over this one ha!

14
The politics / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: September 19, 2018, 01:08:37 PM »
More strange happenings:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/german-doctors-pussy-riot-member-poisoned/story?id=57901880

After the Polonium, Novistjok and unknown poisons one could be forgiven for saying Russian dissidents/activists are pretty much a lab experiment.
After all, aren't there far more effective substances such as cyanide or whatever if you just want to get rid of somebody?

15
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 17, 2018, 12:39:10 PM »
Hmm...extinction symbol campaign huh?
Not hopeful that will change much but why not, the climate gets 100 times more attention...

As a wildlife researcher in Netherlands i can tell you things are bad, we mostly document loss and extinction.
Due to everything from poaching, farming, recreational pressure, urban sprawl and a few dozen other factors best summarized by saying this is a small and highly industrialized place.
43% of habitat loss of Europe happens here which is insane, and that is just in the nature reserves.

And then came the record 2018 drought...to make it much worse.
Some of my research areas were left more or less completely dead, vegetation and wildlife both.
Remaining wildlife turned to city areas were more trouble awaits.
Badgers appear to be hardest hit by the combination of industrial madness and climate mayhem.
Out of 20 dens i see only one at the moment showing some remaining activity while it is also being disturbed by heavy machinery at the moment.
Guess i'll have to share the extinction symbol....

Here is a link to the IUCN Red List page with some interesting data, although far from complete;
http://www.iucnredlist.org/about/summary-statistics#TrendsInBiodiversityStatus

16
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 13, 2018, 04:14:52 AM »
Helene goes to Ireland.
It happened in the sixties, it happened last year.
Now 2 years in a row?


17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 12, 2018, 10:54:32 AM »
Ventusky just got a little better by adding a feature giving you the names of the storms now;
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11;-156;2&l=gust
Manghkut looks like a beast but what is up with Helene?
She appears to be heading for Spain, France or England but gets swallowed up by a huge system up north.
And Isaac looks like it's following the path of Irma last year towards the ravaged islands.
Hope that one follows the models and loses strength.

18
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: September 08, 2018, 12:23:32 PM »
Some footage here of my research areas after the record drought & heat.
You'll have to excuse me swearing  :P
It's pretty shocking especially when we have given ample warning for this type of disaster being made a lot worse by mismanagement.
The Dutch are still hellbent to recreate the vegetation of before 1600.
Species such as heath, blueberry, rowan, etc which have no chance and additionally are a fire hazard.
While wiping out others such as wild cherry which is now pretty much the only remaining food source producing fruit and even more essential to the food chain.
So with nothing to eat, wildlife has pretty much fled into the city where more trouble awaits.





19
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 08, 2018, 10:25:32 AM »
This isn't very reliable of course, but yeah.
Big monster modeled swallowing up Taiwan on the 15th.


20
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 04, 2018, 02:35:53 PM »
Some footage of Jebi impact here;


It appears to show hundreds of cars tossed together which caught fire.
Can't imagine how that would happen.
That is, i can see how storm surge washes them away probably but not how this results in fire on that scale.

21
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: August 07, 2018, 06:17:11 PM »
”No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny...”

Most Met officies would disagree.  Names give a storm an identity, a “personification” that develops with the forecasts, and provides a more robust basis for communicating a significant storm threat to a population, compared with a jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener.

I'm sure they would disagree, and personification i understand but how useful is it?
We don't do it for other weather calamities.
It would be ridiculous for tornadoes or floods.
There aren't that many cyclonic storms but there was a lot last year and the alphabet is only so big was the concern.
It wouldn't have to be a "jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener"either.
The weatherman would probably just say how cyclone A5 did damage to such and such areas of the US or Carribean.
People would understand how bad others were affected regardless.
But we like our names of course...i was just reading how the last severe heatwave in Europe was named "Lucifer".
What will they call this one i wonder?
Beëlzebub or just plain Satan?
You run out of religious names pretty quick as well....
The Dutch whose country was devastated and reshaped by many big storms tried a similar system, using the names of saints whose celebration days coincide with the date of the storm.
The St. Thomas or St. Lucia flood etc.
The more recent major flood of 1953 is simply remembered as the "flood disaster".
Everyone knows how bad it was but they hardly know about the much worse ones earlier ripping the country in half.
Most don't even understand tornadoes can happen here, when in fact we have the highest occurence in the world.
I manged to predict the last F4-5 outbreak accurately 3 summers ago, luck no doubt...hmmm.
I'm not placing bets but i suspect we will see more soon enough.

22
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 06, 2018, 04:23:53 PM »
food shortage, rebellion, violence...back to primitive living it is then...now what does that remind us of?  :o

Our collective fate?

It always amuses me when you recognize oligarchs are preparing for the approaching disaster, buying islands, mountain retreats etc. In a primitive society, there is no need for such a hierarchy and the elite will quickly be recognized as a useless burden and will be the first to go. We just won't need futures traders and financiers where we are heading.

Food/water/shelter seems a tiny bit more important than a civilized status quo yes....lol.
My favorite example is how those primitives on North Sentinel Island are able to live quite happily on a few square miles for at least 60.000 years....no problem when you focus on the basics.

The rich are prepping and running yes, i hear New Zealand or Tasmania are popular because the famous professor of doom Mcpherson gave that advice.
And then retracted it as well haha  ;D
I'm not a huge fan of the man and i would recommend anybody to do some basic prepping unlike he does.
Things do look grim and apart from the ever lasting discussion on human extinction etc. there is other concerns....suffering sucks.

23
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 06, 2018, 03:12:55 PM »
Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)
8/3/18, 5:20 AM
Historians will look back at page 9 of today's Times with great interest.
The combination of stories by @whippletom @emilygosden @bwebster135 et al is quite something...
https://twitter.com/leohickman/status/1025310469286973440
Image below.  Links to the articles are in the twitter replies to the above link.

Indeed Sigmetnow, all very interesting reads.
The Maya being affected by drought is one factor considered in their demise yes, it's believed they started poisoning their remaining water supply because of it...throwing lot's of human sacrifices in their remaining cenotes.
But also just unsustainable civilization depleting resources etc is a plausible hypothesis.(or both)
LIDAR flights are literally finding hundreds of thousands of new sites covered by jungle that were previously unsuspected.
The pyramids of Tikal or other cities, that's just the central square of the city it turns out.
Infrastructure is hidden all around, massive road networks and towns littering the entire jungle.
Population estimate is now up from  2 million people or so to 20 million or more.
All chopping trees, making limestone and depleting resources/habitat.
Agrarian civilizations such as these could arguably be considered as early forms of industry and therefore less sustainable.
Take the Egyptians for example who did similar activity, their grand pyramid building period was actually very short which most people don't know.
Abandoning that could have played a part in why they lasted for so long compared to others.

In a scenario such as that of the enormous Maya civilization going on and on it's not hard to imagine drought finishing off an already sick society.
Priests and kings failing while promising a better harvest, food shortage, rebellion, violence...back to primitive living it is then...now what does that remind us of?  :o

Records could be broken tomorrow still in the Netherlands, but it's expected the heat/ drought that has lingered since May will finally move on after that.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed, similar predictions have disappointed so far.
Sell my soul to the devil for a week of at least intermittent rain...being locked up inside for months is getting very boring.
Hopefully i'll get out soon and and be able to assess the damage to wildlife.

24
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: August 06, 2018, 01:54:42 PM »
Hurricane #Hector is now a Category 4 system and could pose a threat to #Hawaii this week
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1026217769384259584

https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-01-threat-tropical-storm-hurricane-hector-hawaii.html

Looks like hurricane Hector will pass south of Hawaii in the models, but typhoon Shanshan has Tokyo in it sights big time with possible winds of around 220 kmph.

I was discussing the current naming system with Jim Massa, who thinks it is silly, they're all just storms.
He's probably right about that, people are confused always about what is a typhoon/hurricane/cyclone.
Or getting storms with the same name from different years mixed up....a better system is conceivable.
I.E. let's say the second tropical storm in the Atlantic of 2018 gains strength and becomes the 1st category 1 or above cyclonic storm...TS-A2-2018 becomes CS-A1-2018.
Would probably be a lot handier for studying historical activity in a database, filtering results, comparing...maybe similar systems are used already for that purpose.
No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny, hurricane Bert & hurricane Ernie?
 ;D

25
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: August 04, 2018, 05:53:44 PM »
Once upon a time I lived in Lydbrook in the Forest of Dean

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/24/beavers-forest-dean-possible-flooding-solution

Beavers released in Forest of Dean as solution to flooding

Hope is that dams built by pair of beavers will hold back water and improve biodiversity

Quote
Four hundred years after the beaver was hunted to extinction in the UK, two of the mammals have been reintroduced on government land in an English forest as part of a scheme to assess whether they could be a solution to flooding.

Two Eurasian beavers were released on Tuesday into their new lodge within a large penned-off section of the Forest of Dean in Gloucestershire. The hope is that the animals will build dams and create ponds on Greathough Brook, which feeds into the River Wye, and slow the flow of water through the steep-sided, wooded valley at times of torrential rainfall.

In 2012 the villages of Lydbrook and Upper Lydbrook were badly flooded. Hundreds of thousands of pounds  on conventional schemes such as replacing drains to try to keep the communities dry and safe.

The government hopes that introducing the beavers into a 6.5-hectare (16-acre) enclosure on Forestry Commission land will help hold back the waters in a more natural way and improve biodiversity.

Should the three-year scheme prove successful, beavers could be introduced in other areas susceptible to flooding.

I wouldn't get my hopes up.
Europeans and their so called "rewilding" projects are basically industrial scams with no chance at all.
A form of denial imho.
Beavers were brought back to Netherlands as well, much pride and hullabaloo involved.
How useful they are...
Problem was they didn't stay in the places we wanted them to be for wildlife photographers to make pretty pictures alone.
The cheeky buggers actually sabotaged a road somewhat and so of course the hunters were the first to say "Ah we must shoot beavers!".
The politicians holding their hand.

It is the same with any species really, industrial society leaves no room but symbolic presence of wildlife to serve denial.
Otters, eagles, insects or whatever...wolves are walking around now.
They have no chance at all but for a miserable existence at best.
Sounds harsh but i speak from experience.
Even the badgers here are hailed as a wonderful story of success.
I pick up their bodies and find only ruined den sites.
When they are forced to move elsewhere again and get noticed people say:
"See! they are spreading in numbers thanks to our great work!"
They are actually being wiped out just as anything else is.

Bit different from the beaver situation over there you describe but fundamentally the same.
People are already expecting those guys to serve some sort of hydrological goal?
Pardon my French but that sounds like bullshit to me.
Leave it alone we say here and nothing else...i hope those beavers do well.

26
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 04, 2018, 05:02:51 PM »
What do people expect will happen with the pesticides and poisons?
There will be better ones? Cleaner ones?
Industrial society will do without them altogether?
That is not how the industry works.
Ever since it began it has done nothing but destroy.
If one poison is to be proven as damaging the environment in decades of study there are a hundred new ones ready to be marketed.
That is simply factored in the business model of the producers.
Even if a poison is proven as destructive it does not mean it goes away.
DDT is the best known for being banned, it nearly wiped out many species.
It is banned here...we produce it anyway and export it elsewhere instead and then it comes back.
People in countries which have banned DDT still have DDT in their bodies, they have a cocktail of many other poisons in their bodies as well.

Insects, mammals including humans are living in a chemical industrial experimental dump site.
Of course insect populations are going to crash, of course other populations do the same.
One person in this thread mentions several types of poisons he uses for different purposes around the house..he doesn't even know what's in those but he does not want ants...he poisons himself along with them.

How did ants and humans coexist for millions of years without poisons?
Were ants or mites destroying biodiversity including humans and did we make a lucky escape from that by industrial poisons?
Using any type of industrial poison, pesticide, herbicide, fungicide or whatever one calls it is a form of insane criminal activity.

27
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 02, 2018, 05:34:35 PM »
Maybe the record breaking temperatures in Death valley will boost eco tourism?

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 01, 2018, 05:18:45 PM »
Thanks misfratz, those are at least possible factors i hadn't considered.
I doubt both though, the smoke plumes close by are being marked with red dots under the same conditions, some right next to it are not...no cloud cover.
And if the glacier reflection would trick the sensor i'd expect more of it than just 2 locations....
I noticed industrial activity showing up as red dots as well, in the oil fields of the gulf for example.
Even in the gulf itself.
Could there be some industrial flaring happening up on the mountains..hmmm...
Or maybe a volcano is about to cause massive flooding, doom and destruction haha!
I'll keep an eye on it.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 01, 2018, 01:08:55 PM »
This puzzles me;
I was checking the fires on Worldview and noticed 2 things.
- looks like smoke plumes in some places from fires are not showing up as hot spots(red dots)
- there are however a few hot spots shown right on the glaciers in west Canada(?)

Assuming glaciers don't catch on fire it could only be a glitch or different kind of thermal anomaly but what?
It would have to be volcanic which is probably not a good thing for a glacier...any thoughts?
(i enlarged the red dots in the image, the ones Worldview uses are too tiny)

30
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 01, 2018, 12:20:23 PM »
Apocalypse 4 Real posted a summary ten days ago:  A World of Fire and Smoke - A July 20 2018 Snapshot --
from Oregon wheat field wildfires to Central African charcoal making to probably un-fightable (due to years of drought) Siberian fires.

A4R's occasional posts are always well worth reading.

Was thinking the same thing Tor.
Siberian fires will probably go on and on for who knows how long?
Much like the NW Canadian ones last year in spite of international help.
I suspect ENSO conditions play a part in where it gets real bad for those two i.e:
2016-worst fires were in Siberia during el Niño.
2017- Canada bad, Siberia somewhat less during la Niña.
2018 -Both in terrible shape during ENSO neutral
Could be wrong about that...dunno.

31
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 01, 2018, 11:58:33 AM »
Yeah, same here; I live near the largest 'forest' in the Netherlands, but it's all sand where it's growing on, so it's extremely dry. Lot's of small fires in the region along the roads/train tracks. All the heath is dried out and a ticking time bomb. Too often cigarettes thrown away by people...

Yup Rik, Veluwe area i presume where you are?
'forest" in brackets lol, that is correct.
Still the best we have, i keep telling people here to stop making more heath landscapes and call it nature.
Useless landscapes in any extreme they are.
I tell them to stop fighting invasive species like cherry because they are fundamental to the food chain and better adapted to climate.
They think i am crazy mostly of course...planting beech trees with zero chance of surviving looks heroic and is a good excuse to log the rest, make some more biomass too.
Us Dutch think we can recreate the vegetation of the middle ages and call it natural, in a climate emergency situation...so who's crazy?
Hands off everything is too difficult to understand for the industrially brainwashed it seems.

Just checking the models today it is hard to believe what they are saying.
Massive heat and more drought all the way in the 10 day forecast.
39 C and just 1 day with maybe a few mm rain....disastrous.
I may have to become a climate refugee if this is the trend for summer, seriously.
Iv'e been locked up in the house for months now because of all the health issues.
My skin goes apeshit in just 10 minutes of sun, my nose feels like hot knives are poked in making my head explode, my whole body is affected and trembling, cramping up.
No way i can go out in the field for wildlife research, i'm just trying to make it through at the moment.
I should go study pine martens in Scotland from now on...

32
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 31, 2018, 03:57:40 PM »
Netherlands

Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050)
7/28/18, 1:23 AM
“Unbelievable. In 117 years of records here in central NL, the hottest day had a 24h average of 27.1°C.
On Thursday, the record leaped to 27.7°C.
And yesterday, it rocketed to 29.8°C, over 2 full degrees warmer than any day before!
Terrifying, even.”
https://twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/1023076521743970305
Data image at the link.

Yes, all records are broken here pretty much except hottest daytime temp.
We missed that by 0.1 C it seems but the old record was measured by an old man in 1976 who worked a weather station in his garden shed so who knows.(38.2C)

But much worse is the devastating drought, by far the worst in Europe.
While Sweden, Finland, Germany or others have seen intermittent rainy periods there has just been nothing worth mentioning in Netherlands for months now...and there is no end in sight.
There are dozens of fires every day but since human presence is everywhere the response is quick and adequate.
The park in front of my place caught fire for the first time ever.

Remember, this is the country of water and floods which has little idea of how to deal with water shortages and droughts.
We met with a Prof. of climate adaptation at Wageningen University just before summer, and all the focus was on rain bombs, drainage and damage reduction thereof.
I remember getting funny looks when mentioning dry weather patterns could linger...maybe not so much now.
The opposite happens right now, preparing for a worse heatwave next year.
But that may well turn into a different affair with the dreaded rains showing up me thinks...
All in all an unprecedented disaster and literally lethal.
Looking at the satellite everything that should be green is yellow, but the waters are green now from the algae.

Problems everywhere from infrastructure to agriculture and everything else.
As a wildlife researcher especially, working in a hilly area with hardly any water source my heart breaks, and i fear coming winter may finish off much of what is left after summer.
Animals will have very few reserves with food sources already not producing or dead.


33
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 31, 2018, 03:14:38 PM »
How about some good news?
http://www.thejournal.ie/fires-portugal-4156266-Jul2018/

Whatever the Portugese are doing they are doing it right it seems.
They have no problems this year!

34
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: July 27, 2018, 02:10:12 PM »
Game over for north Pacific orca's...it seems if any are born at all they die shortly afterwards;
https://www.whaleresearch.com/j35

35
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: July 27, 2018, 07:19:20 AM »
41.700 year old nematodes come back to life in thawing Siberian permafrost:
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/worms-frozen-in-permafrost-for-up-to-42000-years-come-back-to-life/

Making them the oldest creatures on Earth..wow!

36
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: July 27, 2018, 07:13:11 AM »
It doesn't matter if precise population figures exist or not.
That is usually the case with any species duh....until they are nearly wiped out that is.
How many grizzly bears are there?
How many bobcats?
Otherwise we can't know how well the grizzly or bobcat is doing...nonsense.
this guy is a waste of space indeed.

37
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: July 20, 2018, 09:44:12 AM »
Very nice videos!!


I had a camera with that feature many years ago, but the resolution was terrible. I did however catch the kid next door using and abusing my pool while we were gone for the weekend. >:(


The loss of insects here is beginning to freak me out - can't be good for whatever future lies ahead.
Terry

Ha ha Terry, that's funny...damn kids!
These gadgets have gotten a lot better yes.
I do film people as well doing stuff they aren't supposed to be doing...most places where i would like to record wildlife i can't because of theft or vandalism.
They are over rated anyway and miss most species even in a safe place.
They shouldn't be used exclusively when doing inventory like happens more and more these days.
Tracking and local knowledge provides far more information.
I'm no entomologist but i do notice a thing or two about insects as well of course.

Tthe difference between the city area and surrounding nature areas is striking, nothing left in the city at all where until recently it was always bees, moths, butterflies etc.

in the nature areas very very few remain as well, seen a butterfly or two and a few grasshoppers.
Bee/wasp/hornet species are gone it seems, i only see the fat bumblebee type.
I'm used to finding nests dug out by honey buzzard, badgers or other martens but not seen that either this year.
It's worth noting that the famous German study that reported 75% insect loss was done in a nature reserve, so it's worse elsewhere.
A similar Dutch report shortly after concluded a loss of 67%.
So called "invasive" plant such as wild cherry are being massively attacked and poisoned but entomologists have finally understood that they are a crucial species for at least 56 types of insect.
I could have told them that!
I foraged the cherries for years by shaking the trees out on a tarp and then leave it laying around for all the bugs to crawl away before packing up.
I won't be doing that this year, what little cherry trees remain are bone dry anyway.
This meddling with vegetation is a big contributor to insect loss i believe.
A species such as wild cherry is actually not a new invasive species, but one that was introduced and applauded in the 16th century...of course insects and other wildlife would have adapted to a great food source.

The use of poison has to be a major factor, in agriculture of course but that is pretty well known.
It's everywhere though, nature management organisations do it while believing they can recreate the vegetation of centuries ago amidst a climate crisis.
So areas are logged, poisoned, replanted with beech or similar trees that really don't have much chance while the food chain is interrupted more and more.
When the fences are removed and i have a look, i see voles and mice with no flight response, literally trying to crawl on my shoes and falling over dead...small wonder we lose the insects too.
People themselves poison everything, hunters do as well, schools, offices...all poisoning and adding more concrete of course.
People are asked to report "invasive" plants in their backyard...city will come and poison it for you!
Never mind resistance developing, public health, climate adaptation...urbanization, industrialization first.

What i did find in pretty astonishing numbers are the wood ant nests which were officially down to a single nest.
I don't take that as a sign of their success either though, just a lack of fieldwork.
Nobody here but me and one or two others still doing fieldwork.
One guy studying fungi, another studying bats...that's about it.
Both reporting severe loss as well.
And my research is paralyzed by the heat and allergies...just hiding in my house at the moment.
The entire ecosystem is probably going down just as the insects are.

38
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: July 19, 2018, 09:14:11 PM »
In South Western Ontario I've been observing far fewer flying insects, fewer birds, and large increases in blue green algae.
I'd noted the problems with insects and birds in previous years, but this is the first year I'd noticed the algae. Lake Erie at Port Dover is clear but many of the ponds and small lakes just to the north are completely matted over.
I've put just over a thousand miles on a new vehicle without needing to wash any bugs off the windshield. :-\




Terry

Awww Terry!

It is your consumption of vehicles that wipes out insects and makes this planet less liveable lol!
I'm just yanking your chain, don't get upset please.
It's true, i see very few insects as well here.
Mostly industrial humans who can't handle the heat..rows in the street.
I saw the armada of council vehicles coming by pretending to mow the dead grass 3 x in a row.
I saw the poisons being spread again.
That astonished me most as they kill the rare daisies or dandelions even trying to feed the insects...what insects?
Peace bro

39
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: July 19, 2018, 08:57:58 PM »
Papers in Holland report today that ticks causing Lyme disease are not affecting us due to the drought, they need to move deeper in the leaf layers to avoid drought themselves it seems.
Snakes such as Natrix natrix however are being seen a lot more, even in people's houses.
A lot of Dutch people don't know there are snakes here and freak out seeing one.
Wasps are said to be doing well.
Spiders are also seen more in houses...now that is scary!
Hedgehog sanctuary is reporting twice the normal amount of hedgehogs in trouble being brought.
They ask people to not do so and leave them alone because species like that are just more visible scrounging around.
My camera trap this week appears to confirm that, a fat hedgehog:

I very rarely see them myself or recorded on cam.
Filmed a polecat as well for the first time ever in the same location:


I did use bait(apple, peanut butter, jam) which seems to attract them looking for scarce food.
Vegetation is dead and therefore other food sources, i would normally expect to film mostly foxes.
Overall my impression is pretty grim for nature.
Hunting, poaching, industrial activity is a known problem but this drought on top of it seems bad if we don't cherry pick sightings like this...i see very little evidence of anything doing well.
Food will be very scarce this winter i fear.

40
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 18, 2018, 09:39:56 PM »
Detail of;
1. Fires Sweden
2. Fires Siberia
3. Fires Canada


Many fires are happening in Holland as well but we have choppers in the air and adequate response by firefighters they don't get out of hand.
One advantage of being small i guess.

Siberian times reporting that according to environmentalists, fires are being ignored/downplayed by Russian government.
We can see them for months already on satellite of course but the locals there probably don't watch Worldview....
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/concern-over-raging-wildfires-as-smoke-from-siberia-crosses-alaska-and-canada-reaching-new-england/

41
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: July 18, 2018, 09:25:13 PM »
Blue-green algae, aka Cyanobacteria are being seen more than ever in Holland.
It's not a new thing, but the scale is.
Mostly dogs get sick as they are always jumping in the water or encouraged to by their owners.
People are jumping into unhealthy waters more as well due to the heatwave.
The pollution gets them hospitalized as well.
The air is very bad as well, still more complaints about pollen/pollution including myself.

42
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: July 08, 2018, 11:37:00 AM »
Lol, the game against Russia was so boring i fell asleep.
Glad Croatia won and i was up early to enjoy my favorite time of the week, early Sunday morning is just the best time to cycle around and enjoy the birds without any noise, heat, cars, pollen and other nasty stuff.
I even discovered the cutest little bakery already selling fresh bread!
The Dutch will win the World Cup though, it will just be on the women's side and Croatia hasn't a hope in Hell.
Unless Ivica gets involved no doubt....i'll bet she takes a bad ass penalty kick  ;D
All i have left to do is seed some clouds now.
Have a lovely day y'all!


43
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: July 08, 2018, 11:10:43 AM »
Life forms Daniel, including your own species.

44
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 08, 2018, 10:34:24 AM »
Thanks for digging up that map ArcticMelt1, it's pretty mindblowing.
A lot of folks hearing the news about drilling plans in the Arctic aren't even aware it already happens on a massive scale, and it does release methane.
Enough to sink an entire Chinese platform in one case....

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 08, 2018, 09:49:51 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.
I think that the first ice free year (from the extrapolation of volume data it should happen around 2025 ± 2 years) will be extremely spectacular because then the whole world will see that we are in deep trouble concerning climate change. I also believe that the distribution of heat, wind, air masses and ocean currents will change when there is (almost) no ice left in the Arctic Ocean.
The problem then is: It will be too late for a turnaround to a less warmer world...

Good point Stephan.
Although it may not be the climatology big event some imagine, it will cause a big societal stink!
For one thing the deniers and idiots claiming we are already in a new ice age will have to face it, and indeed they will have to before already...that involves a lot in society and people's behavior including authorities, lobby groups, industry and so on.
A fair few must already be fouling their underwear right now watching the massive heatwaves happen...what will they do?
I suspect some will simply crawl back under their rock while others shout conspiracy.

As someone mentioned here above how we had the La Niña and a fair bit of volcanic activity in 2017, which was ignored almost completely.
The ice age idiots must have really loved that, but it is over for them now...peace.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 08, 2018, 09:32:18 AM »
I too ignored the warning and read this thread...then all my hair off and i suddenly grew a hunchback!  :P
Seriously, i really don't mind a little humor or emotion and saw some interesting discussion or data new to me anyway.
(thnx Arachmid/Magnamentis and others.)
I don't mind people swearing either, a lot of us are foul mouths or i suspect holding it in...that is why swearing exists.
When plain vocabulary fails at describing reality we swear....we're not all gifted speakers i guess.

As long as i don't see the astonishingly low level of conversation we know from social media, the ad hominem and trolling, hatred etc it's a good forum for me.
Thanks to Neven for that of course!

Now here is my prediction for the Blue Ocean Event:
Have a lovely day!
 ;D

47
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: June 24, 2018, 06:55:30 PM »
There are perfectly good examples of what happens when crisis arrives throughout history.
They are well documented so i won't bore you, but there are many recent ones.

- The Argentinian financial collapse caused a violent change in society.
People there are so protected out of fear from rape, theft and murder or just get the hell away if they had any choice.
-New Orleans after the hurricane saw a big rise in criminal affairs and drug use etc.
-Fukushima disaster saw the local Yakuza taking their share from misery.

In context of the historical civilisations collapsing the industrial reality spells much bigger disaster.
It is already the biggest disaster ever and includes billions of victims.
It wipes out all life.
Just stay safe, that is timeless.

48
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: June 09, 2018, 08:10:23 PM »
It still amazes me how even intelligent people such as on this forum cannot see the inherent destruction of industrial society.
Population, extinction rates, pollution of all kinds, greenhouse gases, casualties of war and atrocities etc all explode upon industrialization just as the famous Mann "hockeystick" does.
It still amazes me how intelligent people make wrong assumptions about other intelligent people.
What if we do see the inherent problems? What is it that you suggest in practice?


And we are here today , intelligent and educated, alive because of that industrialization, able to contemplate and share our opinion through this medium, not dying from deseases like prior to that industrialization. And extinction, pollution, large scale altering of local environments has been happening since the dawn of civilization. All the forests you see now in Europe are there because people found alternative source of energy instead of cutting every single bit down. They did not need industrial revolution to destroy their environment. The fact that we are contemplating clean sources of energy exists because of industrialization. The problem is that humans still act on a personal selfish level. Unless tgey can transcend that instinct and think about the whole , behaviors won't change. They can only be regulated, but such regulation as we are won't go down easily without a fight...

Oh come on guys, admittedly i generalized but now i see cherry picking and failure to address the content of what i said.
I mentioned the hockey stick graphs of most problems coinciding with industrialization, because with everything it is important to see cause and effect.
I did not claim there are solutions i know of.
Are there solutions to all the biodiversity lost already?
Of course not, they are gone.

DrTskoul's little piece is so full of false assumptions it is hard to even begin on that.
- intelligence equated to industrialization is stupidity.
- some diseases are better, many more worse or brand new ones as a result of industrialization..how nice! Even the damm air is killing and torturing us now... yippy hurray for industrial progress and medicine!
- the forests of Europe are dieing mate, and they did recover indeed somewhat after past stupidity. They also screwed over a whole new continent in the process, and still do.
Europe is an industrial nature management factory based on stupid ideals from centuries long gone while climate won't even allow it. Shocking extinction is the case more than ever no matter how many damm trees they plant or import. The true old forest such as Romania or a little shitty bit left in Poland is being destroyed by industrial might.
- whatever destruction medieval Europeans caused and did or not somehow mitigate dwarfs in comparison.
- European period of the time is the worst example of health/longevity anyway. Those idiots lived in their own filth while inbreeding, using religion as medicine and working the 90% poor to death.
Small wonder then that "primitive humans" have enjoyed better health and long life and still do without industry or agrarian civilization.
- there are no clean, green, renewable sources of energy or however people want to call it gonna make a damm bit of difference because they are all industrial and inherently and exponentially  destructive and depleting.
That is a marketing strategy of cult-like proportions.
- after stacking false assumptions one on top of the other you fantasize about some industrial forced human regulation...and conflict required?
Yeah...that will be a paradise with a smiling Arctic ice cover and happy plants & animals everywhere i'll bet lol  :P

49
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: June 08, 2018, 06:08:10 PM »
It still amazes me how even intelligent people such as on this forum cannot see the inherent destruction of industrial society.
Population, extinction rates, pollution of all kinds, greenhouse gases, casualties of war and atrocities etc all explode upon industrialization just as the famous Mann "hockeystick" does.

50
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: June 03, 2018, 04:00:37 PM »
:'(

Whale that died off Thailand had eaten 80 plastic bags
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44344468


Australia alert after ship loses 83 containers
Quote
Sanitary products, surgical masks and nappies have begun washing up on beaches north of Sydney.

There are concerns the items could prove dangerous to whales and other animals if they swallow them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-44343423

This is a crime, and we are dealing with it as criminals do by committing more.
California is banning plastic straws....big deal.
They will use many more new plastic products.

A Dutch 14 year old kid(now almost 30) had a bright idea of the "Ocean Cleanup".
He will use more plastic, create a new fossil fuel based industry on top of the old and has not done anything!
But the capturing device will have a solar panel, made of plastic and other pollutants.
Close the damn factory i say, if you don't want plastic!
Don't want pesticides wiping out biodiversity and poisoning your kids?
Close the whole damn industrial sector!

It seems we are too stupid to understand we are stabbing the Earth to death.
We merely try to use a different knife for it.

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