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Messages - pileus

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 18, 2020, 06:50:04 AM »
Here in Florida cases are surging and the move back towards BAU is only worsening the situation.  From the beginning I’ve feared a dire scenario for the state given older/unhealthy demographics.  It could be the beginning of a very difficult stretch.

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 02:55:06 PM »
Quite an effort to keep track of sam’s various projections for the US death toll.  25 million, 5 million, 12 million.

We have Dr. Fauci now using a range of 100-200k.  You would expect him to not be the type to exaggerate, so perhaps this is on the low and uncertain side.

Despite some of the generalizations here that the US population is flouting guidance and society is operating BAU, a large number of Americans have been under some degree of physical distancing and/or stay at home orders.  There is some evidence in a few larger metros of case growth slowing.  Too early to draw conclusions, and yes that spreads out the effect over time until there is a vaccine.

I’m in an urban area of Florida, and expect a very bad April and May due to demographics and slow adoption of measures across the state.  Even so, in the absence of data or facts I wouldn’t expect the catastrophic tolls statewide or nationally that some here are pushing.

The future is constantly in motion. As events change, as new data comes in projections (these are neither forecasts nor predictions) do change.

People get hung up on numbers. In catastrophes, projections form a key tool in assessing where things are headed so that experts, decision makers, and all of the emergency managers, planners, responders can prepare and work to CHANGE conditions to reduce the future projected impacts.

Do NOT ever make the mistake of thinking that any of these projections are cast in stone. The only projections that are close to that are the near term projections that account for the lag time between infection and confirmation. Even these have large uncertainties. And don’t think of those as uncertainty bounds. This isn’t statistics, and we have nothing like a representative or full sample assessment. The larger the base of information, the closer the projections are likely to be.

Also, do NOT allow your emotions, wants or desires to enter into this. Doing so if you have any influence at all gets people injured and killed.

Sam

I sincerely appreciate your thoughtful contributions to this thread.  For whatever reason, you appear to be seeking the extreme and worst case scenarios in your projections and prognostications.  All of the legitimate modeling produces results nowhere near your projections for the US, and we are seeing trends in some large metro areas suggesting a slowing rate of new cases.

Even so whether the toll is 82k or 200k or 500k that is still a tremendously horrific outcome for the US given the state of technology and biomedicine.  I would also think there is an undercounting of actual deaths and deaths indirectly related to COVID or “hidden,” such as fatal cardiovascular events that are actually due to the virus.  Even so, the US is highly unlikely to see these seven figure death tolls being casually offered here.

Of course predictability and confidence is upside down right now, so you may end up being validated, but I am highly skeptical.

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 01:51:48 PM »
Quite an effort to keep track of sam’s various projections for the US death toll.  25 million, 5 million, 12 million.

We have Dr. Fauci now using a range of 100-200k.  You would expect him to not be the type to exaggerate, so perhaps this is on the low and uncertain side.

Despite some of the generalizations here that the US population is flouting guidance and society is operating BAU, a large number of Americans have been under some degree of physical distancing and/or stay at home orders.  There is some evidence in a few larger metros of case growth slowing.  Too early to draw conclusions, and yes that spreads out the effect over time until there is a vaccine.

I’m in an urban area of Florida, and expect a very bad April and May due to demographics and slow adoption of measures across the state.  Even so, in the absence of data or facts I wouldn’t expect the catastrophic tolls statewide or nationally that some here are pushing.


4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 03:25:55 AM »
But that also highlights what has been one of my primary concerns for the US, in the state of Florida and other communities with a high proportion of 70+ residents.

I’m keeping an eye on The Villages, which is one of the if not the largest retirement age communities in the world.  They’ve had past issues with rampant STD spread, and mix that history with the high proportion of MAGA supporters (apt to dismiss this as a hoax and accept what the cult leader says), and it’s trouble ahead.

Lake, Sumter cases grow to 68, with 31 in The Villages

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-lake-county-infected-20200326-2u3suejfybarbi7czwl7jyh4ky-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

So it begins.  120k clustered elderly residents, many with comorbidities.  Florida’s trajectory is several weeks behind the current US hotspots, and will be made worse by the atrocious leadership of Governor DeSantis, who failed to take this seriously or take aggressive mitigation measures, as his primary concerns are big business and keeping Lord Trump happy. 

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 12:06:09 PM »
...COVID-19 could have infected almost everyone on the planet this year and killed 40 million people

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/pandemic-deaths-could-top-1-8-million-even-with-tough-response-study/

The US is at just over 2 ^ 10 official COVID-19 deaths at this moment (per worldometer).

20 days will bring us to mid-April and at the current rate of doubling about every two days, a death total of 2 ^ 20 ... 1,048,000+

Whatever the real number ends up being, most of the deaths up to that point are already pretty much baked in by actions we have or haven't taken up to now. We may still have a bit of a chance to start to bend the curve flatter a bit after that by the actions we do and don't take in the the intervening time.

US deaths may very well be in five figure territory in 20 days, but not over a million.  There are more considerations and variables beyond a simple exercise in maths.  Will check back in 20 days to see how the actual metric compares.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:00:17 PM »
Some of this support will erode as the recession/depression deepens and more people are directly impacted,

I very very much hope you are right with this.

It may or may not be relevant to the upcoming US election in November.  I am not convinced there will be an election, but if there is I am certain that Trump and his associates will do everything possible to interfere and disrupt the process (note I did not use the term “a fair process” as that is absent from US political processes for many people, both historically and now).

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 04:49:11 PM »
Look at trumps approval ratings.

Half of US citizens are fanatic members of this GOP death cult. Half! But you need >80% of the population to dismiss the president's message.

Where is this optimism coming from?

A US president by default tends to get benefit of the doubt and majority support in times of crisis/war/disaster.  See Bush after 9/11, elder Bush at the beginning of Desert Storm, etc.

Some of this support will erode as the recession/depression deepens and more people are directly impacted, but Trump is unique that he is indeed a cult figure, and 90% of his support (about 40% of US adults), will never abandon him.

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 04:41:25 PM »

While this and your subsequent post are an interesting exercise in speculation and maths it has no basis in reality or fact.  There is no legitimate modeling that forecasts this level of impact, even with a complete lack of preventative measures.

Beyond that, a primary flaw in your assumptions is that somehow all states and the entire US populace will blindly follow the directives of Trump to return to normal.  He has no control over state governors and localities, nor businesses and other organizations.  Red state governments may indeed follow his commands, but most states and organizations will ignore him and take measures to protect their people.

Will certainly check back on this in five weeks.  I do not expect the US body count to be as you predict.

I tend to agree with this, at least for this first go round.  What I can't get my head around is what is going to happen after the numbers start to improve, and Americans, weary of isolation and broke, begin to come out and mingle. Will the virus re-surge? Will the next bump be smaller? Will we be caught in cycles of this? These are all unclear to me, but I don't think we will see cataclysmic death tolls over the next weeks. I hope.

The modeling appears to indicate that even with comprehensive physical distancing and other measures, the embers will be there and flare up as soon as restrictions are relaxed, until there is a vaccine in distribution (~18 months) and/or there is a large part of the population with antibodies from exposure and survival.  Neither extreme measures nor the stop/start approach are frameworks that work well with the “American way,” so that presents challenges and risks beyond the obvious.

The US seems to have lost its chance to get in front of this due to systemic failures, primarily at the federal level.  No leadership on physical distancing and closures, and no comprehensive testing and tracing program.

Still, these projections of 25 million deaths in five weeks are absurd and not grounded in any type of real data or science.  But the death toll will likely still be terrible, and more than it should have been had there been different leaders in place with more acceptance of science and expertise.

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 12:39:27 PM »
The United States has apparently decided to try the most egregious solution. Let the maximum number of people die, while also passing legislation to rob the poor and give to the rich.

On the current course, expect in excess of 25 million American dead over the next five weeks, and a wrecked economy.

Spain just overtook China with the most cases. Tomorrow the US will overtake Spain. Within about 10 days, the US will have more than half of all cases globally and all hospitals will be in saturation then or shortly after. Expect the fatality rate to go well over 10% in the US.

The impacts will be very uneven. There is virtually no time left to do meaningful things. Instead, the moron in chief is whimpering at not being able to play with his friends, and trying to go precisely the opposite direction from that which is useful.

The catastrophe in the US won't have been bad luck. America will have been killed through gross incompetence and willful malice by its President, the Congress, many State governors, a Republican political party that is corrupt stupid arrogant and ignorant, Trumps followers who are a cult, and the corrupt media that supports their beliefs. They are committing joint suicide, while injuring and killing millions of their brethren, while never understanding a single thing.

America will be shattered and changed by this experience in wholly unpredictable ways. Welcome to hell.

Sam

While this and your subsequent post are an interesting exercise in speculation and maths it has no basis in reality or fact.  There is no legitimate modeling that forecasts this level of impact, even with a complete lack of preventative measures.

Beyond that, a primary flaw in your assumptions is that somehow all states and the entire US populace will blindly follow the directives of Trump to return to normal.  He has no control over state governors and localities, nor businesses and other organizations.  Red state governments may indeed follow his commands, but most states and organizations will ignore him and take measures to protect their people.

I unfortunately live in Florida, a state that is under the control of a Trump sycophant and the lords of big business.  The governor is making timid and terrible decisions, and it will contribute to horrific impacts on the 22M residents, a high portion of whom are elderly.  But even within the state larger cities and population centers have taken aggressive measures to implement closures and social distancing, so it will help offset the potential high end impacts.

Will certainly check back on this in five weeks.  I do not expect the US body count to be as you predict.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 01:56:13 AM »
There is much discussion here on human inability to think and be concerned about century or even decadal impacts of climate change, but as we are seeing now there is an inability or refusal to even think about possible impacts two weeks from now and change behaviors in the midst of a deadly pandemic.

Perhaps a mix of “it can’t happen to me” or “it’s really not that bad” along with a selfish perspective and unwillingness to modify behavior for the greater good.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 20, 2020, 09:09:23 PM »
US Students Party On Spring Break Despite Coronavirus Warnings
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-51955362/us-students-party-on-spring-break-despite-coronavirus-warnings

Video: Crowds of US university students flocked to Florida for their Spring break, defying recommendations from the CDC and federal government over the new coronavirus.

National health officials are advising against gatherings of 10 or more people.



I have seen this here firsthand in Florida, and I was disheartened more and more with each day by the disregard and/or lack of awareness.  The comic is appropriate but to be fair, it’s Gen Z driving most of spring breaker issue.

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 20, 2020, 04:23:46 AM »
Can anyone report on how infection rates are going in Florida? I am assuming that the elderly are more likely to support Trump so his support will decrease as the death toll rises. State by state death rates in the USA will be interesting.

Some Florida metrics as of this evening US time:
3400 tested (population is 22 million)
423 positive
9 deaths
At least 19 elderly care centers with infections

We have the highest share of elderly in the US, the proportions are similar to Italy.  Yes they are more likely to support Trump but no they will not stop supporting him, even as they lay dying.  It is simply a cult.

Testing has been minuscule.  Officials moved slowly here to enact measures and restrictions.  Tourist season so $$$ is king.  The price will be paid in the coming weeks.  There will be horrific stories coming from Florida.

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 19, 2020, 03:10:21 AM »
This was inevitable.  State and local officials have slowed played the closure and quarantine process, as it is Spring Break tourist season.  Lots of oblivious people crowding together, and most will scatter back to various corners of the country.  I expect Florida may have Italy-like numbers and horrific stories in the coming weeks.

Coronavirus surfaces in 19 elder care facilities in Florida

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/18/coronavirus-surfaces-in-19-elder-care-facilities-in-florida-1267712



14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 11:50:25 AM »
First reported case near The Villages retirement community in Florida.  I expect this to sweep through here like wildfire, due to the demographics and a mindset that is hostile to facts and science.

https://www.villages-news.com/2020/03/16/lady-lake-woman-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=lady-lake-woman-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus

Florida Retirees More Worried About the Stock Market than Coronavirus

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1239660208768471041

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 01:02:25 PM »
Being xenophobic is the only mode he can work in. This is why they elected him.

As an American I’ve been in perpetual shame and embarrassment because of Trump, but the “they” that elected him was a minority share of the votes in 2016 enabled by an archaic electoral process that continues to favor former slave owning states.  The concept of democracy in America has long been a myth, especially for anyone not white and not male.

60% of us see him as an abhorrent creature.

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 05:41:53 AM »
Except for the UK.

It will be modified to also exclude Ireland, once they realize it's not in the UK (he has a golf course there).

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 02:57:27 AM »
I just saw the speech by the Trump-in-chief.

He is blaming it all on a "foreign" virus, and mostly on Europe. Suspend all flights from the continent.

The guy did not seem quite well, though.

Sad.

Brazilian official who met Trump testing for coronavirus

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-trump/brazilian-official-who-met-trump-testing-for-coronavirus-paper-idUSKBN20Z071?il=0

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 01:02:54 AM »

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2020, 12:22:38 AM »
He of course has no idea who Nero was.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 02:39:00 AM »
The hoax may be coming home to roost.

Coronavirus continues its rapid spread, confounding efforts by global leaders

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/07/coronavirus-continues-its-rapid-spread-confounding-efforts-by-global-leaders/

Quote
White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said neither Trump nor Pence was in “close proximity to the attendee," but ACU chairman Matt Schlapp told The Washington Post on Saturday that he himself interacted with the infected person at the event. The precise chronology could not be learned, but Schlapp did shake Trump’s hand on the stage on the last day of the conference.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 07, 2020, 09:11:01 AM »
This is the beginning of what I fear will be a significant toll across the 70+ population in Florida

2 Dead in Florida; 2 Test ‘Presumptive Positive’ for COVID-19 in Broward County

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/2-dead-in-florida-2-test-presumptive-positive-for-covid-19-in-broward-county/2201904/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_MIBrand&amp&__twitter_impression=true

I have done what I can to warn and urge preparations amongst my friends and older family here in the state.  Sadly, some of them consume Fox as their primary news source and are not taking this seriously.

22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 04:43:22 AM »
Seems like WHO will need to pull the trigger on the P word at this point.

23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 03:36:01 AM »
First unconfirmed report in Florida (Sarasota).  With the state’s high population of 65+, medical systems will be under enormous strain and the toll could be significant.

I’ve been warning my friends and loved ones here in FL to prepare, most have waived it off.

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 02:11:04 AM »
First confirmed case in NY.

Coast to coast now, but it’s obviously been spreading for weeks.  The US numbers should rise dramatically with more testing.  That is if the results are not filtered.

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 12:10:10 AM »
Quote
But what does the data say? i.e. mortality rate by age group for those with confirmed infection.

In interviews I’ve seen, epidemiologists with knowledge of the data confirm that children have significantly fewer cases than older age groups.  Reason is unknown.

I have no qualifications or expertise to opine, but could it have something to do with the intensity of the immune system response?  The 1918 flu hit younger people hardest, and from the literature it was mostly due to an overwhelming reaction by the immune system in otherwise healthy people. 

COVID seems most problematic with olds and those with comorbidities who are unable to mount a sufficient immune response.  It seems not to trigger an intense response in youngs.

This is a sobering read on how COVID proceeds in the most critical of cases.  Also provides commentary on why it may not be intense for the youngest victims.

How this coronavirus kills its victims

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-29/how-this-coronavirus-kills-its-victims

Quote
One possible explanation for this is that children have less-developed immune systems, he said. In this case, an immature immune system might prevent the body from triggering inflammation severe enough to result in pneumonia, septic shock and multiple organ failure.

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 04:34:10 PM »
Quote
But what does the data say? i.e. mortality rate by age group for those with confirmed infection.

In interviews I’ve seen, epidemiologists with knowledge of the data confirm that children have significantly fewer cases than older age groups.  Reason is unknown.

I have no qualifications or expertise to opine, but could it have something to do with the intensity of the immune system response?  The 1918 flu hit younger people hardest, and from the literature it was mostly due to an overwhelming reaction by the immune system in otherwise healthy people. 

COVID seems most problematic with olds and those with comorbidities who are unable to mount a sufficient immune response.  It seems not to trigger an intense response in youngs.

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 03:11:39 AM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743

Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?

Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.

That’s still about 20x the rate for regular flu.  Most people have no idea what’s coming.

28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 29, 2020, 11:26:27 PM »
Over 50 patients and staff in a Kirkland, WA care facility are showing symptoms. 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/one-king-county-patient-has-died-due-to-covid-19-infection/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

Seattle Times has also removed their paywall on COVID stories.

29
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 29, 2020, 07:18:03 PM »
First confirmed US death in Seattle area.

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 29, 2020, 02:49:42 PM »
Cruise passenger cohorts tend to skew older, so that could have an upward influence on the mortality rate for the Diamond Princess.

But that also highlights what has been one of my primary concerns for the US, in the state of Florida and other communities with a high proportion of 70+ residents.

I’m keeping an eye on The Villages, which is one of the if not the largest retirement age communities in the world.  They’ve had past issues with rampant STD spread, and mix that history with the high proportion of MAGA supporters (apt to dismiss this as a hoax and accept what the cult leader says), and it’s trouble ahead.

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 29, 2020, 01:47:30 PM »
This is a very informative and extremely timely read from the author of “The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History.”  I am certainly going to pick up this book.

Although the article is from 2017, it could have been written yesterday with respect to what is transpiring in the US relative to communication and emerging failures of leadership (the least shocking development of all, however).

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

Quote
What proved even more deadly was the government policy toward the truth.

Quote
Against this background, while influenza bled into American life, public health officials, determined to keep morale up, began to lie.

Quote
Across the country, public officials were lying. U.S. Surgeon General Rupert Blue said, “There is no cause for alarm if precautions are observed.”

Quote
People could believe nothing they were being told, so they feared everything, particularly the unknown. How long would it last? How many would it kill? Who would it kill? With the truth buried, morale collapsed. Society itself began to disintegrate.

Near the end of the article, the author John Barry adds this:

Quote
That is why, in my view, the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.

The US is in for a rough ride.  I mostly liken this to an “own goal,” as it’s largely self-inflicted.

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 29, 2020, 03:29:54 AM »
I think the situation is in a different state now. The main problem is no longer China. China seems to have things under control. The main problem is Iran. Iran has a massive problem and not even their central government knows the scope of it. People traveling from Iran must be quarantined.

Then there is Italy and Europe. I must assume relentless contact tracking is going on in Europe. Most cases and potential cases will be found and isolated unless the epidemic has grown out of a scale that can be mapped. Given the numbers released so far, that is unlikely.


The US has a bigger problem in its hands than it cares to admit. That one case of community infection was very likely leaked from containment. They are following droplet protection and sometimes not even that. Masks are scary. Sadly, this bug is airborne.

However, I refuse to think that the US does not have the capacity to trace and isolate cases once they appear.  So unless the trump administration actively suspended tracking of patients and just let this killer flu into the ecosystem, I think the US got this. If Trump thinks this is just flu and orchestrated the response to just let into the ecosystem as to not affect the markets, then we are truly Fd. Is he evil/stupid enough to do that? yes. But I don't think people that value their lives would let him.

Regarding the first bolded statement:  “Trump calls coronavirus a ‘hoax’ and uses it to justify border wall”  This from a rally speech in South Carolina.  Conspiracies, xenophobia and racism all wrapped into a few seconds.

Regarding the second bolded statement:  “Second coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in California, indicating virus is spreading in the state”

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 27, 2020, 12:41:32 PM »
sam, you are obviously adding a lot to this thread, but you are not grounding your assertions and assessments when attempting to counter the evidence of much lower fatality rates outside of Hubei.

Your case appears to rest heavily on speculation and a mistrust of “authorities” and a direct effort in other countries to “hide the truth.”

There are countries where this dynamic is possible or even likely, and we should except a high degree of gaslighting to continue in the US.  But there is no evidence that all countries with material caseloads would elect to make an individual or coordinated effort suppress either the number of infections or fatalities in public reporting.  And if much higher numbers of people are or end up dying in places like South Korea and Italy, that is not something that can be hidden from eventual news reporting.


34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:28:34 AM »
The more concerning issue relative to the US election is that the current administration cancels the election “for the benefit of the American public.” 

We can’t risk people gathering in public in large numbers all over the country, can we?

But that might be the only thing that gets complacent Americans off their collective butts and into the streets.

This virus really could be a Black Swan in more ways than one.

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 25, 2020, 12:35:15 PM »
Great study but I think the 2,3% number is way too high. Reason: It is obvious from the numbers themselves (extreme disparity between Hubei mortality and everywhere else) and local reports that huge numbers of mild cases in Hubei are not counted and told to go home and self-quarantine, so only the more serious cases are counted in the study. Also, the sample is said to be closed on Feb 11, so the CFR should be close to final. So it is 2,3% on a biased sample that likely does not include mild cases. I still stick to around cca 1% mortality based on everything I know. And let's not forget that not everyone will catch COVID, as just like cca 25% caught the Spanish flu.

On another note (see above): Iran really is a major concern. Lax regulations, authorities are not ready at all, porous borders, surrounding countires with poor healthcare = perfect breeding ground and likely much higher mortality than eg China. I don't see how they can stop it in Iraq/Iran/Syria/Lebanon and the like

Agree, the overall fatality rate if all infections are included (which is practically and virtually impossible) is most likely well under 1%.

I found the demographic splits and severity arc outcomes to be more instructive and useful in the summary of the study.

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 25, 2020, 03:48:26 AM »
Not sure if this has been posted, but a useful review of data from a large subset of victims.  No surprise that the elderly are at highest risk for the worst outcomes.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate

“Eighty-seven percent of patients were aged 30 to 79 years (38,680 cases). This age-group was the most affected by a wide margin, followed by ages 20 to 29 (3,619 cases, or 8%), those 80 and older (1,408 cases, or 3%), and 1% each in ages less than 10 and 10 to 19 years.

Of the confirmed cases, 1,023 patients—all in critical condition—died from the virus, which results in a CFR of 2.3%. The CFR jumped considerably among older patients, to 14.8% in patients 80 and older, and 8.0% in patients ages 70 to 79. Among the critically ill, the CFR was 49.0%.”


37
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 24, 2020, 05:39:49 PM »
Just a casual reader of the forum and find it a very useful place for all types of news, but must say the addition of that poll is quite odd and ghoulish.

Just my two cents.

38
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 23, 2020, 08:01:22 PM »
In the US, places like Las Vegas, Disney World and Disneyland are daily “festivals” with a melting pot of people from all over the world.  In Florida you also have a number of high volume cruise ports and clusters of retirement communities.

Speculation, but to me Florida is the place to watch in the US.  WDW, cruise ports, older demographic within the state and amongst the visitors.

39
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 23, 2020, 03:17:42 PM »
Sam, i am having trouble with what are reported cases in the definition of CFR.
“The reported case fatality rate (CFR) is a measure of the severity of a disease and is defined as the proportion of reported cases of a specified disease or condition which are fatal within a specified time.”

So if children ,for example , don’t get recorded in reported cases because they don’t show symptoms
doesn’t it distort the numbers? 

Also in order to get accurate r0 it seems you need to know how many people catch and carry Covid-19 with minor symptoms but still contagious. The Diamond Princess and the Shincheonji church challenge an r0 on the low end.

Sorry if we have already gone through this already but when I quote a lancet paper with an r0 of 2.5-2.7 it seems dated by recent events.

The fatality rate for all that are infected is likely less than the oft-cited 2% figure, and probably under 1% at a country or eventual global level.  But that actual data point will never be validated. 

For the 70+ demographic and those with compromised immune systems, the fatality rate is likely higher based in the current progression and characteristics of the virus.

40
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 04:13:12 AM »
It’s actually ok to be an atheist or none and not mock those who practice their version of faith, whether they are sincere or hypocritical.

I am a very content atheist, but understand and respect the need for more traditional spiritual outlets that draw multitudes.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: May 04, 2019, 07:31:41 PM »
Burger King begins selling the meatless Impossible Whopper
Quote
Burger King now sells a meat-free version of its flagship Whopper with a plant-based patty that’s designed to emulate the look and taste of beef. The Impossible Whopper is available at 59 locations in the St Louis area starting today, but The New York Times notes that Burger King plans to offer the burger at all of its 7,200 locations if the US trial goes well.

Despite the fact that the Impossible Whopper has 15 percent less fat and 90 percent less cholesterol than a standard Whopper, Burger King chief marketing officer Fernando Machado claims that neither customers nor employees can tell the difference. The meat-free burger will cost customers about one dollar more than the beef version. It will still be topped with mayonnaise, making it unsuitable for vegans. ...
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/1/18290336/burger-king-impossible-burger-st-louis-meat-free-meatless

But you should be able to “Have it your way” and request no mayo....

I don't patronize Burger King or similar outlets, but this is a positive development and an early salvo in the journey towards much less beef consumption in the US. The Impossible Burger is quite good, I like it better than the Beyond Burger, which is still a great choice.  These plant based products may be more of a bridge, as the momentum seems to be growing in the lab grown “meat” arena.

42
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: November 27, 2018, 03:56:10 PM »
Sorry to see ASLR go, it’s a loss for the forum and knowledge base here on a wide range of topics.
————

Strong chance of a new El Niño forming by early 2019

“The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there's a 90% chance of the event starting in January.”

“The WMO models are say that a fully fledged El Niño is estimated to be 75-80% likely between December and February 2019.

At this point, the WMO says its predictions for the event range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength event with sea surface temperatures peaking between 0.8C to 1.2C above average.

The chance of a strong event are currently low.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-46347451?__twitter_impression=true




43
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 16, 2018, 05:15:00 AM »
600+ unaccounted for, nearly 12,000 structures destroyed in the Camp Fire.

The death toll from the devastating Camp fire jumped to 63 on Thursday as search crews recovered seven more bodies in the burn area.

The number of people unaccounted for jumped dramatically to 631 people, up from 130 on Wednesday evening.

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-california-fires-woolsey-hill-camp-camp-fire-death-toll-climbs-to-xxx-1542330098-htmlstory.html

44
This is one of Trump’s vocal cheerleaders, sharing his thoughts on the cryosphere.

45
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 16, 2018, 02:32:47 AM »
Thousands are still missing after Michael.
https://eu.floridatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/10/13/hurricane-michael-survivors-scramble-food-crews-search-missing/1628842002/

The vast majority are alive but either sans communication or just simply haven’t checked in.  It is likely the Mexico Beach toll will go up, but it’s rather incredible that the overall number isn’t truly in the thousands.

46
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 12, 2018, 02:29:14 AM »
Gotta say I’m pretty rattled here in Tampa after going through Irma last year and seeing what Michael has wrought in the Panhandle.  The pics and reports of impact speak for themselves.  It’s not hyperbole to say these intense cyclones we’ve observed globally over recent years are becoming routine, with the increasing amount of heat available in the tropical basins.

47
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 09, 2018, 02:07:43 AM »
I’m under a 2-4 foot storm surge watch here near the water in Tampa, while family a short drive up the coast have a 12 foot warning.  September was an intensely hot month here, the Gulf is fuel for a storm like Michael to ramp up.

48
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 03, 2018, 01:33:19 PM »
I didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.
The remains of Florence could give the UK its first Equinoxial storm in about a fortnight's time (if GFS is right for once on how and when Florence does the curve to the north and is then captured by the mid-latitudes Atlantic westerlies).

The other global models have trended towards keeping a weaker Florence under a strengthening ridge, increasing the odds of a track into the US East Coast.  Lots of time to go.

49
Congrats to those who thought this was the least destructive binary choice in 2016.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/new-trump-power-plant-plan-would-release-hundreds-of-millions-of-tons-of-co2-into-the-air/2018/08/18/be823078-a28e-11e8-83d2-70203b8d7b44_story.html?utm_term=.21d465d95d27

New Trump power plant plan would release hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 into the air

50
Consequences / Re: Florida's "Red Tide" algal bloom
« on: August 16, 2018, 02:06:08 PM »
This is the whale shark that washed up on Sanibel Island a few weeks ago.  Sanibel is one of the premier shelling beaches in the world, it’s oriented more east to west and catches the Gulf currents.  There was a recent die off of sand dollars in the area as well.


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