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Messages - pileus

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: May 04, 2019, 07:31:41 PM »
Burger King begins selling the meatless Impossible Whopper
Quote
Burger King now sells a meat-free version of its flagship Whopper with a plant-based patty that’s designed to emulate the look and taste of beef. The Impossible Whopper is available at 59 locations in the St Louis area starting today, but The New York Times notes that Burger King plans to offer the burger at all of its 7,200 locations if the US trial goes well.

Despite the fact that the Impossible Whopper has 15 percent less fat and 90 percent less cholesterol than a standard Whopper, Burger King chief marketing officer Fernando Machado claims that neither customers nor employees can tell the difference. The meat-free burger will cost customers about one dollar more than the beef version. It will still be topped with mayonnaise, making it unsuitable for vegans. ...
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/1/18290336/burger-king-impossible-burger-st-louis-meat-free-meatless

But you should be able to “Have it your way” and request no mayo....

I don't patronize Burger King or similar outlets, but this is a positive development and an early salvo in the journey towards much less beef consumption in the US. The Impossible Burger is quite good, I like it better than the Beyond Burger, which is still a great choice.  These plant based products may be more of a bridge, as the momentum seems to be growing in the lab grown “meat” arena.

2
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: November 27, 2018, 03:56:10 PM »
Sorry to see ASLR go, it’s a loss for the forum and knowledge base here on a wide range of topics.
————

Strong chance of a new El Niño forming by early 2019

“The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there's a 90% chance of the event starting in January.”

“The WMO models are say that a fully fledged El Niño is estimated to be 75-80% likely between December and February 2019.

At this point, the WMO says its predictions for the event range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength event with sea surface temperatures peaking between 0.8C to 1.2C above average.

The chance of a strong event are currently low.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-46347451?__twitter_impression=true




3
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 16, 2018, 05:15:00 AM »
600+ unaccounted for, nearly 12,000 structures destroyed in the Camp Fire.

The death toll from the devastating Camp fire jumped to 63 on Thursday as search crews recovered seven more bodies in the burn area.

The number of people unaccounted for jumped dramatically to 631 people, up from 130 on Wednesday evening.

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-california-fires-woolsey-hill-camp-camp-fire-death-toll-climbs-to-xxx-1542330098-htmlstory.html

4
This is one of Trump’s vocal cheerleaders, sharing his thoughts on the cryosphere.

5
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 16, 2018, 02:32:47 AM »
Thousands are still missing after Michael.
https://eu.floridatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/10/13/hurricane-michael-survivors-scramble-food-crews-search-missing/1628842002/

The vast majority are alive but either sans communication or just simply haven’t checked in.  It is likely the Mexico Beach toll will go up, but it’s rather incredible that the overall number isn’t truly in the thousands.

6
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 12, 2018, 02:29:14 AM »
Gotta say I’m pretty rattled here in Tampa after going through Irma last year and seeing what Michael has wrought in the Panhandle.  The pics and reports of impact speak for themselves.  It’s not hyperbole to say these intense cyclones we’ve observed globally over recent years are becoming routine, with the increasing amount of heat available in the tropical basins.

7
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 09, 2018, 02:07:43 AM »
I’m under a 2-4 foot storm surge watch here near the water in Tampa, while family a short drive up the coast have a 12 foot warning.  September was an intensely hot month here, the Gulf is fuel for a storm like Michael to ramp up.

8
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 03, 2018, 01:33:19 PM »
I didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.
The remains of Florence could give the UK its first Equinoxial storm in about a fortnight's time (if GFS is right for once on how and when Florence does the curve to the north and is then captured by the mid-latitudes Atlantic westerlies).

The other global models have trended towards keeping a weaker Florence under a strengthening ridge, increasing the odds of a track into the US East Coast.  Lots of time to go.

9
Congrats to those who thought this was the least destructive binary choice in 2016.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/new-trump-power-plant-plan-would-release-hundreds-of-millions-of-tons-of-co2-into-the-air/2018/08/18/be823078-a28e-11e8-83d2-70203b8d7b44_story.html?utm_term=.21d465d95d27

New Trump power plant plan would release hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 into the air

10
Consequences / Re: Florida's "Red Tide" algal bloom
« on: August 16, 2018, 02:06:08 PM »
This is the whale shark that washed up on Sanibel Island a few weeks ago.  Sanibel is one of the premier shelling beaches in the world, it’s oriented more east to west and catches the Gulf currents.  There was a recent die off of sand dollars in the area as well.


11
Consequences / Re: Florida's "Red Tide" algal bloom
« on: August 15, 2018, 08:26:57 AM »
As a (newish) resident of Tampa can confirm this is getting more visibility and press here.  Red tide typically remains south, but is encroaching near the mouth of Tampa Bay.  There were actually reports of unusual crab deaths a few days ago in the Bay.  The primary storyline, of course, is economic at this time.  Reminds me of the first part of Jaws, when the mayor and business owners shouted away the danger because if they took action it would harm profits.  Of course in this case it’s a systemic problem caused by increasing water temps and ag runoff, so nothing at all can be done to stop it in the immediate term.  There was a beautiful whale shark that washed up a few weeks ago a few hours south on Sanibel, a victim of the red tide.  Lots of turtles and dolphins are also being wiped out, and enormous numbers of fish.  It’s actually pretty difficult to focus on any human impacts right now with all the devastation being seen among the wildlife.

12
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: July 19, 2018, 06:27:21 AM »
Remember the efforts by Kushner and Flynn to create a back channel to Russia?

A few weeks after Trump was given the info detailed in the NYT article, a senior Russian cyberintel officer was arrested on charges of treason.

In the ensuing months, a number of Russian officials succumbed to mysterious deaths.

Folks, it’s been in plain sight from the get go.

The effort to take Trump down is going to intensify, as is the vigor of his manic defense and gaslighting, and the circling of the wagons by his cult.

There is no way to predict how this will end.

13
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: July 19, 2018, 06:05:39 AM »
Republican leaders in Congress going to be under much more pressure after the latest New York Times article tonight, detailing how Donald Trump was consulted by the US intelligence agencies IN DETAIL in January 2017 about the Russian interference into the US elections.

Republican leaders like McConnell, Ryan and others in for a rough ride.  As the unmasking of Trump as an agent of Russia continues, the depth and breadth of collusion with Russia AND the broad coverup and obstruction of justice will blow everyone away.

Treason is now VERY MUCH in play .... and not just for Traitor Trump.  And yes, the Russian trolls will be working overtime.

It is indeed treason, but Republican leadership and his base will turn a blind eye.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/world/europe/trump-intelligence-russian-election-meddling-.html#click=https://t.co/pHXVEZ7bLP

WASHINGTON — Two weeks before his inauguration, Donald J. Trump was shown highly classified intelligence indicating that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had personally ordered complex cyberattacks to sway the 2016 American election.

The evidence included texts and emails from Russian military officers and information gleaned from a top-secret source close to Mr. Putin, who had described to the C.I.A. how the Kremlin decided to execute its campaign of hacking and disinformation.

Mr. Trump sounded grudgingly convinced, according to several people who attended the intelligence briefing. But ever since, Mr. Trump has tried to cloud the very clear findings that he received on Jan. 6, 2017, which his own intelligence leaders have unanimously endorsed.
———————
And ultimately, several human sources had confirmed Mr. Putin’s own role.

That included one particularly valuable source, who was considered so sensitive that Mr. Brennan had declined to refer to it in any way in the Presidential Daily Brief during the final months of the Obama administration, as the Russia investigation intensified.

14
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 15, 2018, 01:14:07 AM »
 >:(

15
More headwinds for Tesla

Tesla's plunging bonds signal investor worries that it will run out of cash

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-tesla-bonds-plunge-20180328-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Quote
It's getting worse and worse every single day" for Tesla, said Bill Zox, chief investment officer of fixed income at Diamond Hill Investment Group. "That's the nature of being in this negative feedback loop. Everyone is worried."
The consequences are significant. Tesla's woes have played out most visibly in the stock market, with its shares suffering a two-day, 15% drop that's the biggest since 2016. But surging borrowing costs, which are now near 8%, could hamper the carmaker's ability to finance itself at a crucial time.

16
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 24, 2018, 09:55:32 PM »
Marched today in Tampa, Florida, about three hours from Parkland.  The anger is real and visceral.  If the energy translates to November, the Republicans are going to be swept away.

Thank you, pileus, for participating.  It's heartwarming to see supporters all over the country (and world!) marching.  Maybe these young people are inspiring a new anti-war movement.  We can only hope:

Aerial images from March for Our Lives rallies around the world shows huge turnout
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/03/24/aerial-images-around-world-shows-scope-march-our-lives/455891002/

Thanks Steve.

I first marched in 91, right before the Gulf War.  My placard said, “No War for Oil.”  I was young and idealistic, but it felt quixotic, useless.

I am old and cynical now, but today was different.  The energy was tangible, electric.  It feels like it’s going to continue to build, towards something larger. 

The Republicans will do everything in their power to obstruct and and deflect, but that’s what they do.  I have little doubt that the US will be involved in at least one new war before November.

17
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 24, 2018, 06:28:55 PM »
Marched today in Tampa, Florida, about three hours from Parkland.  The anger is real and visceral.  If the energy translates to November, the Republicans are going to be swept away.

18
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 23, 2018, 12:45:46 PM »
Buddy, the Republican party is a party that is going to die anyway. That 50% of Americans that voted for the republicans are mainly white. They live in the rural area's, they are old, poor, and have few children. White Americans will be a minority soon. This is the last fight of wounded animal.

It’s true that the GOP is facing demographic challenges.  Young people, especially women, favor Democrats by outsize margins, and they will be an increasingly larger share of the electorate over each successive cycle.

But whites won’t be a majority minority until around mid-century.  And Silents+Boomers together are a large bloc, they turn out in large numbers to vote and lean strongly conservative.  Young people have terrible turnout.

The poorest demographics voted for Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump.  The GOP base is increasingly fueled by white grievance and loss of place to the “other,” not economic reasons.

19
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: March 18, 2018, 04:50:07 AM »
😲😲😲

20
+20 Dem swing in the PA special election this evening, +16 average in the 2017 specials.

115 R seats are more competitive than the PA seat.

Big blue wave coming.
Do you have a link?


I'm seeing that Trump won the state with 48.2% to Hillary's 47.5%


In the 4 county's contested today Lamb is winning by 49.9% over Saccone at 49.5%
In Allegheny County the Democrats won then and today.
The other three counties were won by the Republicans in both cases.


I'm relieved that the Democrat won, but I don't see it as a huge swing from 2016.
Terry
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

PA18 was so red that it was unopposed by Dems the last two cycles.  In 2012 the R won by +28.

Trump won PA18 in 2016 by +20.

AltLeft-splain it all you want.

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_Congressional_District_election,_2016


21
+20 Dem swing in the PA special election this evening, +16 average in the 2017 specials.

115 R seats are more competitive than the PA seat.

Big blue wave coming.

22
sidd wants us to believe that the Forgotten Men voted against Democrats who abandoned them, the Democratic Party he believes doesn’t represent the people, and for Donald Trump because he offered them hope and a path to recovery.  Once again I will remind sidd that he’s flat out wrong. But he has the Corporate Democrat Madness Syndrome, and can’t see beyond his bias.  It’s all about white and rural cultural grievance, white supremacy, and bigotry.  Donald Trump appealed to their deep seated prejudice and loss of place to the brown, black, and “other.”  It’s that simple.

The first snip is from the article, it’s culture and grievance.  They don’t care about anything else.

The second is obvious snark, but very appropriate.

GOP Panic Spreads to Pennsylvania
Republicans have spent over $9 million in a blue-collar district Trump carried by 20 points. If the GOP can’t win there, they’re in deep trouble.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/664776?unlock=8AE9X4M288STTFFK


23
I rarely agree with the Alt Left Conspiracy Crew in here on political matters, but DiFi should retire.  Octos represent the past, we need new progressive Dem ideas and energy in the most important state in the US.

I didn't know you were ageist, pileus. And a woman to boot, who has done so many wonderful, progressive things for the American people. Shame on you

 ;D proud card carrying ageist when it comes to politicians over 75.  They are dinosaurs and stand in the way of progress.

There are plenty of women coming up behind DiFi to take her place.  In fact, a record number of women will be on the ballot in state and national elections this year.  This of course is very disturbing to the Forgotten Man Whisperers of the Bro Left, as they will be shaken by the tide of women sweeping into positions of power and influence.

In other news sure to sadden Ye Olde Alt Left Conspiracy Crew, Dems are up 15 in the generic ballot.  Obama Dems, Hillary Dems, all the Dems are coming in waves in November.  The Alt Left Brigade of Revolutionaries and Unicorns would rather have Republicans in power, so this will cause much weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Suffolk University/USA Today Poll Shows Voters Favoring Democrats as Midterms Approach

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/76223.php#.WpjQR6ZOmhA

24
I rarely agree with the Alt Left Conspiracy Crew in here on political matters, but DiFi should retire.  Octos represent the past, we need new progressive Dem ideas and energy in the most important state in the US.

25
The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: February 28, 2018, 03:44:12 AM »
I would assert that central planning outfits such as the DNC will be less important in 2018 and going forward.  The energy is organic right now, it’s local, it’s viral, it’s enabled by social media, and it’s not dependent on some man behind the curtains at a stodgy committee organization. 

It’s not incorrect that Dems step on rakes constantly, but it’s not going to matter much.  Republican supression is a greater threat than Dem incompetence this cycle.

26
The rest / Re: The Shooting and the mid-terms
« on: February 28, 2018, 02:54:28 AM »
Looks like some of you insist on ignoring data and trends, which is ironic for a science driven community.

Every special election at the national level and many at the state level since early 2017 give the trajectory of a massive wave election for Dems in Nov.  It’s simply reality, but go on with the edgy takes and your fainting couches about Corporate Dems.  The primary confounding variables will be Republican supression and Republicans permitting unchallenged Russian interference.  IMO it’s 70/30 the GOP prevails in F ing with the election.  Otherwise it’s an undeniable wave for Dems and Speaker Pelosi.

The Parkland survivors have already managed to keep this massacre in the news cycle for than a few days, so it’s different this time.  They are social media experts, the GOP state and national politicians and pundits are no match for them.  But 18 year olds turn out at 20% for elections.  They are going to lead a shift in the assault weapon debate but they also need to show up in Nov.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 26, 2018, 02:19:43 AM »
Not sure if anyone else on the interwebs picked this up, but as far as i can tell these heat intrusions have already broken the record DMI deviation from mean temp set in the fall of 2016. Data goes back to 1958.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Its just broken that record again

It’s just screamingly clear that the Arctic amplification that will come with just 1.5 will be way, way too much.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 18, 2018, 03:12:52 PM »

29
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: February 18, 2018, 03:09:56 PM »
Trump is off the rails this morning.  Not what you would expect from an innocent man.

30
The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: February 17, 2018, 04:15:13 PM »
Of course the rural and flyover folk will continue to have an outsize influence on US presidential elections, as the Electoral College system is skewed towards over representing those area.  Democrats won the will of the American people in 2000 and 2016, but were denied the White House thanks to this system.

I was born to a rural blue collar family in Pennsylvania Dutch Country, have lived in the PA mountains and on both sides of Philadelphia.  When I was young I worked in factories and production lines of different parts of PA.  Most of my family remain conservative, and I know plenty of other Trump voters.  I interact with them even though I’ve moved on to become a Coastal Elite and Neoliberal Schill.

sidd, you may want to gently tell your buds they’ve been had and duped by a con man and carnival barker.  He isn’t going to help them, but he sure will make them feel good about validating their sense of indignity, and directing their outrage at various targets.  That’s what Trump has always been about.  He’s a product of the gilded elite and he cares not a bit for your friends, he just uses them as props and tools.

31
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: February 17, 2018, 03:54:21 PM »
As always lawfare blog is a great destination for analysis in the latest WRT TrumpRussia’s role in the 2016 election.

https://www.lawfareblog.com/russian-influence-campaign-whats-latest-mueller-indictment

“President Trump has spent the year since his victory casting doubt on the very premise that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election. Yet here is the Justice Department on the record declaring that the Russia investigation isn’t, in fact, a witch hunt. It isn’t a hoax. It isn’t just a “phony Democrat excuse for losing the election,” as the president has tweeted. There really was, the Justice Department is saying, a Russian influence operation to interfere in the U.S. political system during the 2016 presidential election, and it really was at the expense of Hillary Clinton and in favor of Donald Trump.”
—————
“The indictment’s silence on American involvement led the White House to declare in a press release that Mueller has shown “NO COLLUSION”.  The president would be wise to cool his heels on such claims of vindication. The fact that this indictment doesn’t allege misconduct on the American side does not necessarily mean that Mueller lacks evidence to support such an allegation—or that he will not develop it in the future. This indictment deals with a limited subject matter: one aspect of the Russian operation—that involving social media influence measures—undertaken by non-governmental actors. It makes a point of not addressing the conduct of U.S. actors. That is neither inculpatory or vindicating. It is, rather, a deferral of the matter to another day.“

What this indictment does, rather, is establish part of the predicate for a later claim of collusion. That is, the indictment details part of what it was that any Americans might have been colluding with.

32
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: February 17, 2018, 03:53:02 AM »
Amusing but not unexpected to see the fox and trump bots pushing the incorrect conclusion about today’s indictments. 

Mueller’s work continues, there was no declaration of or requirement of completion today.

33
The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: February 14, 2018, 01:31:35 PM »
The rising tide in the Trump GOP Swamp is lifting all Democrat boats.  Another state level pick up last night, in FLA Trump country.  All Dems, including Corporate and Neoliberal Schills, are going to win this year.  Biggest threat is GOP supression tactics and Russian interference.

WRT Pelosi, it’s simply time for newer younger leadership.  She has been a fantastic Democrat over the years, but it’s time for fresh ideas.

34
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 19, 2018, 03:00:35 AM »
"Why did the USA elect Donald Trump ?"

Well before the election a similar queston was asked, here is my reply:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1607.msg83746.html#msg83746

For similar reaction in primate studies, see Brosnan et al.

doi:10.1038/nature01963
doi:10.1016/j.anbehav.2010.02.019

sidd

You wrote:

“Fora a long time now a large number of people have been getting screwed.They see the 1% get most benefit, while they struggle to survive. They know another Clinton will mean more of the same screwing. They are done with the status quo. They would rather flip the table and burn it all down.”

You were off target then, and you are off target now.

Trump’s populism was always fake, and everything he does caters to the 1% and the gilded elite.  His populist rhetoric and bashing of Dems/liberals is just sound and fury.  He and his GOP sycophants are pulling the existential rug from under those folks you claim we’re tired of getting screwed by the Dems.

Hillary Clinton handily won the lowest income demographics. 

And, actual research shows your claims to be unsupported.  Trump was always and is forever about racial resentment.

The past year of research has made it very clear: Trump won because of racial resentment.

https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/15/16781222/trump-racism-economic-anxiety-study

35
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 19, 2018, 02:47:43 AM »
"it was Trump leading the racist birther movement against Obama that gave rise to his political career."

Not quite, he's been flirting with the idea since the 80s, ran in 2000 for Reform party.
I remember that 87 circus.

http://www.tvguide.com/news/donald-trump-presidential-campaign-timeline/

sidd

Trump’s previous statements about the presidency and ham handed forays into politics prior to the 2016 cycle are irrelevant.

Without the birther movement and the energy it harnessed for him on Twitter and Fox News, he would have been a non entity in 2016.

36
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 18, 2018, 01:37:38 PM »
Trump's an ass, Republicans are the problem. Putin is innocent.

Trump's an ass, Republicans are the problem. Putin denies everything.

See ? Fixed that for you.
Also never forget MH17.

When someone takes the position “Putin is innocent,” it tells you everything you need to know about them, and their views should either be summarily dismissed or not taken seriously. 

37
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 18, 2018, 01:48:34 AM »

The rant re. Feinstein was in part triggered by her own claims that she had a head cold, and wasn't able to think clearly. The unspoken implication was that had she had her wits about her, she certainly wouldn't have done what she did.
If she isn't willing to stand for her actions, why should I?


Yet another right-wing propaganda point.  Feinstein stands firmly behind her decision to release the transcripts.  She does say, though, that she regrets not having informed the Chairman first.  That incidental nicety is the matter for which she brought up having a head cold, in passing.  It's a detail of near-zero importance, mere etiquette.

But do a simple Google search for "Feinstein cold Fusion" and you'll see this propaganda smear trumpeted by Fox News, Breitbart, ZeroHedge, DailyCaller, InfoWars, and the like.

Once again, the propaganda of the alt-right convinces the alt-left of lies.

I’m old enough to remember when Democrats were criticized here on the forum for caring too much about the rules, not playing to win, or being willing using hardball tactics against the opposition. Senator Feinstein does a power move, and the Alt Left rolls out more propaganda and CT, aligning with their brethren on the Far Right.

I will say tho that I fully support ageism WRT national politics.  We need to recognize that almost everyone 75+ experiences a degree of cognitive decline or impairment, and they typically bring an outdated frame of reference that is not geared towards the solutions we need for the future.

38
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 18, 2018, 01:35:19 AM »
The Alt Left always forgets that Hillary Clinton won the lower income demographics, white and black and other.  Trump’s “forgotten men and women” were not impoverished by Wall Street and did not vote for his populism, they voted for his appeals to white supremacy and scapegoating brown people.

But it’s not unreasonable to say that there is no Donald Trump without Obama, much like there was no Obama without W Bush. It was not the Alt Left’s precious conjuring phrase, “neoliberal policy Obama” that created Trump, it was Trump leading the racist birther movement against Obama that gave rise to his political career.


39
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 17, 2018, 03:02:05 AM »
It’s probably covered up thread, but how long do folks here think before roving fleets of on demand autonomous vehicles reach critical mass so that owning ANY type of vehicle is no longer required for those of us that need to travel on roads?

I’d like to have an EV, but I’d also prefer to avoid the investment and instead hang on to my ICE car if autonomous vehicles are on the (reasonable) horizon.
I assume you mean on demand autonomous vehicles widely deployed across the country with rates far cheaper than current taxis, that make it a no-brainer to travel anywhere you need with a taxi.
IMHO you can buy an EV and get a good use out of it before this becomes a reality. First there's the technological hurdle still not overcome, then there is wide deployment, then there is the issue of rates that will take time to drop. I doubt the whole thing completes before 2025.

It will easily be 2025 before there is wide deployment of autonomous vehicles. That's a lot of CO2 emissions if you wait. Just sayin. ;)

Looks like around 2025 is a common prediction.  Last year I fled the suburbs and moved to an urban core.  I now drive 12 daily miles round trip to work during the week, but otherwise walk most everywhere else, with the rare long distance excursion via car.  All of the walking has helped me become as healthy as I’ve been in decades, and my ICE vehicle sits idle almost all the time.  I suppose my modest commute is a good candidate for an EV, but I’m actually motivated to find work within a walkable distance to my residence.  I could then ditch the car entirely, and rely on ride hailing services when the need arises. 

I’ve found separating from dependence on a car to be much more liberating than what Madison Ave has been selling forever, the supposed freedom that comes along with a car and the open road.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Schumpeterian Creative Destruction
« on: January 16, 2018, 02:34:12 AM »
We’ve certainly underplanned/underprepared for the ever increasing impacts and disruption from global warning, and we are certainly underplanned/underprepared for the process of transitioning to carbon-free energy and the resulting disruption.

We also need to keep in mind that while this is happening to the carbon-intensive industries and workers, AI and robotics will be simultaneously decimating many other industries and occupations that have little to do with fossil fuels.

We’re not ready for this, but it’s sort of irrelevant because it’s unstoppable at this point.  As usual the poor and marginalized among us will suffer the most, but this also promises to pull vast numbers of people across all social stratification into life altering disruption, many of whom are right now completely unaware of what is coming.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 16, 2018, 02:15:12 AM »
I think that, after some time for the industry to mature, riders will be able to request one of an assortment of vehicles.  Normal work commuting might provide work surfaces.  Going on a scenic drive might mean lots of glass or a convertible.  Going on a vacation might mean some sort of RV, from a small vehicle that sleeps a couple people tent-style, to a large rolling cabin.

I suspect we'll see one or two person options.  And options up to 50 or more passengers.  Cargo vans.  Whatever the market will support.

You’d also have to think that augmented/virtual reality and all sorts of AI wrt entertaining passengers or keeping them productive will find its way into future vehicles, instead of physical components and accessories.

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 15, 2018, 11:45:47 PM »
It’s probably covered up thread, but how long do folks here think before roving fleets of on demand autonomous vehicles reach critical mass so that owning ANY type of vehicle is no longer required for those of us that need to travel on roads?

I’d like to have an EV, but I’d also prefer to avoid the investment and instead hang on to my ICE car if autonomous vehicles are on the (reasonable) horizon.

43
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 15, 2018, 03:44:50 PM »
Well I'm certainly relieved by those poll numbers.  ;)

I thought I was actually going to need to donate time or money or ... something. With a 17 point lead we can rest easy knowing Nancy will taking care of donations, then she can hire whatever help she needs with no need for volunteers.

What a relief.  :)

Terry

It’s a snapshot of the current environment, and suggests that even more momentum can be harnessed with organization, voter registration and GOTV efforts.

It’s something to build on, but of course the naysayers and cynics will dismiss it.

44
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 14, 2018, 03:48:24 PM »
Putting all the noise and nonsense aside, Dems now have a +17 leading the generic ballot, suggesting a wave of tsunami like proportions in November.  The Senate is now also in play.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2512


45
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 14, 2018, 03:42:59 PM »

Quote
Today, GM unveiled the first image of its upcoming autonomous fourth-generation Bolt EV-based vehicle – the “first without a steering wheel or pedal.”

The automaker also says that it filed a petition asking the DOT permission to deploy the vehicle as soon as next year.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/12/gm-unveils-autonomous-bolt-ev-without-steering-wheel-pedal/

This is the turning point.

Agreed.  This is really what excites me, even with the challenges and other dynamics that have been posted by others.  I look forward to the day where these types of vehicles dominate the road.  I don’t care if it’s GM, Tesla, Lyft, etc.

Here’s another link on the same topic

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/innovations/wp/2018/01/12/gms-latest-car-gives-up-steering-wheels-pedals-and-human-control/?__twitter_impression=true


46
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 04, 2018, 01:43:37 AM »

Quote
Giving up on facts and truth entirely, just because the “other side” doesn’t acknowledge it, would be a grave mistake.  But we also need to acknowledge a sizable portion of that side will never be persuaded with any type of appeal.  Focus on where hay can be made.

I disagree once again.  The 'grave mistake' is to lose for none of what you want to accomplish will happen if you lose.  So this is where the phrase "Winning isn't everything; it is the only thing." applies.  This is the lesson that the wealthy learned during the years of FDR and took it to heart.  You have to fight and fight to win no matter what.

Once again you speak of 'your' facts and truths as if they are the true word.  You may think this but the majority of people will not ever accept your version of the truth because 'their' facts and truths are different than yours and thus it is obvious to them that you have no idea what you are talking about.

You are never going to persuade anyone with reason.  People are persuaded by the winners as history has shown.  People subconsciously support the winners because they won - it is human nature. The winners get to define what is right, what is wrong, what happened, who was good and bad, what the 'facts and truths' are.  The losers do what they are told or else. 

Playing mainstream politics in this country will change nothing.  We need a revolution.

There are certainly areas of objective truth and facts.  To suggest otherwise comes across as trying too hard to be edgy, or perhaps channeling that deep experience from the psilocybin trip.  You seem to be referring more to frame of reference, life experience, and opinions, perhaps even faith. One can believe something, but it doesn’t necessarily make it a verifiable or testable fact.

18 and 20 feel like the winners will be riding a snap back revulsion from what we are experiencing today.  I’d be willing to bet that looks more maintstream/left of center than any sort of revolution.  Of course anything is possible these days.

47
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 04, 2018, 01:06:23 AM »
JimD, your forecast looks solid across most dimensions.  I do however think you are misreading the electoral environment for 2018 to some degree.  Absolutely concur how the GOP and it’s machine will approach the fight, in fact I’m expecting a ramp up of outright and in the open voter supression, because it’s really the only way to avoid a bloodbath for the Republicans.  There is so much anti Trump and anti GOP sentiment and disgust that a wave is indeed setting up for Democrats.  All of the special elections and the recent VA and AL elections have only confirmed that environment.  Yes, they don’t care how we feel, but as elements of the tax bill are analyzed and Ryan goes after entitlements, it’s only going to build the playing field for Dems.  The generic ballot suggest a comfortable margin in the House for Dems, while the Senate is less certain.  Dems should swing a few seats, but they have so many to defend.  Dems have no need for a hard progressive swing or Bernie style rhetoric to retake the House, although progressive and far left candidates will do well in a king tide that lifts all boats.  There will be a massive influx of Democratic women running for office, and state and local level races will see this dynamic.  I certainly could be wrong, but would expect only some sort of black swan to change the dynamics at this point.

48
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 04, 2018, 12:49:12 AM »
I have put this post here and not in "RussiaGate" as the quoted book is about the Trump Presidency in general, although the article is almost entirely Trump / Bannon / Russiagate. This perhaps reflects the the current media obsession that diverts attention from the damage to science, the environment and US society in general happening now, will  continue to happen, and that, in the long-term, may be seen as far more important.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/03/donald-trump-russia-steve-bannon-michael-wolff

Quote
Trump Tower meeting with Russians 'treasonous', Bannon says in explosive book
    • Former White House strategist quoted in Fire and Fury, by Michael Wolff
      Bannon: ‘They’re going to crack Don Junior like an egg on national TV

    Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon has described the Trump Tower meeting between the president’s son and a group of Russians during the 2016 election campaign as “treasonous” and “unpatriotic”, according to an explosive new book seen by the Guardian.

    Bannon, speaking to author Michael Wolff, warned that the investigation into alleged collusion with the Kremlin will focus on money laundering and predicted: “They’re going to crack Don Junior like an egg on national TV.”
[/list]

There is so much to chew on today, most of it feeling like a soap opera or gossip rag, in the Guardian article and now this, the biggest news drop of the day from NyMag. Who knows where the lines of fact and embellishment meet, but it is most certainly full of revealing and cringe worthy details regarding the current President of the US.

Donald Trump Didn’t Want to Be President
One year ago: the plan to lose, and the administration’s shocked first days.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/michael-wolff-fire-and-fury-book-donald-trump.html

49
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 03, 2018, 08:42:48 PM »
Ben Sasse

Hmm.  Let's see.  From link:

Quote
In an apparent criticism of President Donald Trump’s attacks on the news media, Republican Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska called for a revival of “shared facts” in U.S. politics.

Sasse said in a New Year's Day video posted on Twitter that the American system of government “will not work without shared facts.”


This is an incredibly naive statement for someone who is as high up in politics as a Senator.  Guess we could say it shows his age or something.

There has never been a time in US politics where there were 'shared' facts or 'truths' and the news media has always been biased and told blatant lies in trying to advance the 'facts' which their side wants accepted.  Any minor plunge into the history of politics and the news media since the country was founded would find that the excesses of today were frequently exceeded in our past.  Trump and his news company's are not outliers but a rather common place occurrence.

An interesting bit of reading, for those inclined, who would like to get a bit better understanding of where the Republicans are playing the game with some degree of skill while the Democrats have been hopelessly lost out in the weeds somewhere I will link below.  It is a bit long and fairly academic but very on point, and something that those who are deeply suffering from TDS need to understand.

Quote
....
The post-truth, in other words, opens up a political project as well as a pedagogical one. The political project involves the power relations that compose truths, and the pedagogical project involves how we engage ourselves, each other, and the world in transformative processes.


Force in the market-place of ideas

The right wing knows all of this. They don't make appeals to the truth. They make appeals to beliefs and convictions. If those beliefs and desires contradict some set of evidence, then that evidence is fake. That is what Donald Trump means when he tweets "FAKE NEWS!" It isn't an assertion of what the truth really is (as if the news had some innate relationship to truth and constituted "the real"). It isn't an objection based on an understanding of language as neutral and objective containers of ideas, nor is it based on an understanding of language as a weapon of persuasion. Rather, the "FAKE NEWS" tweet is intended as an anticipatory interpellation. It's an assertion of belief of   what should be, a performative utterance meant to organize and intensify one side-his side-of the political. To reply that the news isn't fake, that the fake news designation only applies to news that he doesn't like, news that makes his side look bad, misses the point completely. Sure, the right wing preaches about the importance of "freedom of speech," but they clearly only mean their speech. They'll attack a left-wing academic for their tweets and try to get them fired while they protest against a campus banning a neo-Nazi speaker. Recently, Trump got backlash for sharing anti-Islamic propaganda videos from a neo-Nazi group in Britain. Their veracity was first called into question and then disproven. When confronted with this, Trump's press secretary totally disregarded the attack: "Whether it's a real video, the threat is real," she said.   [4]

This is why the right wing is winning: they know they have enemies and they have allies, and together they want to defeat those enemies. To defeat those enemies, they mobilize, organize, intervene, and act collectively. They imagine the future they want. They talk to each other, they create their own ideological bubbles from which to act, resist, take swings. They capture the state and wield it toward their ends. They don't care about what the other side thinks. They aren't trying to win us over. They believe in themselves and their movement. They don't think their people need to be enlightened by public intellectuals.....

If you want to win a knife fight you bring a knife or a gun...the truth is irrelevant.

http://www.hamptoninstitution.org/dont-bring-the-truth-to-a-knife-fight.html#.WkwSed9KuUm

The Hampton Institution snips are very interesting, but honestly this has been evident abut GOP political strategy over the last few decades.  Modern roots are of course with the Reagan revolution, but at least for this individual observer, Newt Gingrich and Frank Luntz really tipped the GOP towards this brand of politics in the mid 90s and various players have shepherded it along until Mitch McConnell became the prime expression of this style.  He of course is doing the bidding of the GOP donor class, with a propaganda foundation provided by Fox and other right wing media.

Yes, “they aren’t trying to win us over,” and in fact Democrats and others should not try to win the hopeless portion of “them” over, which is probably 25-30% of the electorate, that is hardened right wing conservative.  The battle continues to be for that elusive 10-30% of voters and citizens that are still open to reason, facts (yes, they do exist), emotional appeals, and constructive policy.

Giving up on facts and truth entirely, just because the “other side” doesn’t acknowledge it, would be a grave mistake.  But we also need to acknowledge a sizable portion of that side will never be persuaded with any type of appeal.  Focus on where hay can be made.

50
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: January 02, 2018, 04:31:50 PM »
Nothing has solidified my sense of hopelessness for the future climate more than driving through (more technically correct, being driven through by a driver) several of India’s large cities.  Knowing that consumption is only going to increase and multiply as living standards raise, and much like traffic there the results will be chaotic.  I’ve always thought that sanitation and access to clean water and toilets should be a larger priority than something like AC, as more than a half billion there practice open defication.

None of this is to suggest that Indians are more culpable than the US and western countries that have created the great majority of the global warming crisis.  It’s just disconcerting for the future biosphere as hundreds of millions across India and Asia come on line as consumers and polluters.

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