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Messages - arctic-watcher

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 02:49:29 PM »
Strange how the latest ECMWF run has the arctic in an almost basin-wide cold temperature anomaly at 850 hPa in 10 days, while GFS has a basin-wide hot temperature anomaly by the same time and beyond.  Maybe it's just really hard to predict when transitioning seasons? 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 06:51:49 AM »
Yeah the ice looks vulnerable in a few places but absent a sustained, high impact cyclone this melt season is effectively over given the dropping temperatures and stalled momentum.  Yes, bottom melt will continue for awhile yet but without some cyclone-driven mixing even that will probably not amount to much.  Less than a week to September now.  Lesser impacts are just too little, too late now.  Just one arctic watcher's opinion but time will soon tell the story and time is running very short for melt this year. 

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 07, 2019, 11:10:49 PM »
The EC run ends in such surrealist way that must not be commented about it here, especially now that beyond day 5 is uncertain. perhaps in the meaningless thread somebody is not afraid to comment.
In any case what FooW explained yesterday continues valid for the next week or so.
 

Yes, and what a contrast with GFS in the 5 to 10 day range.  Huge disparity in forecasts. 

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 13, 2019, 04:49:42 PM »
Is JAXA extent data still unavailable? 

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2018, 11:57:59 PM »
thank you.  and to Niall also. 

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 15, 2018, 11:46:26 PM »
When did Chukchi ice over last year? 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 13, 2018, 06:59:53 AM »
Chukchi might be icing over in the next week or two if the GFS extended forecast holds decently true.
The GFS *always* overestimates cold over the highly saline SSTs up north, and does the inverse for the fresh SSTs to their south (Kara, HB). I would be this is another false alarm. The model bias is systemic and incorrigible...!

GFS and ECMWF forecasts for Chukchi were acccurate for the the last 10 days and continue the cold anomaly for at least another 3 to 5 days. 
Chukchi is on course to be iced over by this weekend.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 03, 2018, 07:13:28 PM »
Chukchi might be icing over in the next week or two if the GFS extended forecast holds decently true. 

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2017, 07:36:37 AM »
Did JAXA extent just drop about 3,000 km2 or did I misread the chart ??   

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 04, 2017, 06:50:07 AM »
Up another 5K+ km2 tonight. 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 22, 2017, 08:12:16 AM »
What was the explanation in 2006? 

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 07, 2017, 02:11:36 PM »
Ned, the predict-o-matic is spot on.  Where do you describe its program? 

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 14, 2017, 03:41:43 AM »
Thanks to everyone for all the IJIS extent info.  Bookmarks set. 

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 13, 2017, 09:20:31 AM »
DavidR, are you saying that 2017 lost 112K of extent today, or that 2012 lost that amount on this date?  If 2017, where are you finding that info. before Espen posts it?  thanks

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 04, 2017, 08:11:00 PM »
On the forecast models page of Tropical Tidbits there is a Canadian Meteorological Centre model that seems different from GFS and ECMWF but no one ever references here on ASIF.  Is it a poor model or what?  thanks

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 27, 2017, 04:27:28 PM »
And unless I'm misreading it, it's now it's the GFS that appears to be the most ice friendly, at least with temperatures, in the coming week.  An odd switch from the past few weeks.
 
ECMWF Ensemble for 00z today is not a funny one depicting high pressure dominated weather over the next 10 days.Remains to see if the temps manage to climb above freezing point and make some major damage or not. If we are lucky the forecasts might change and we get a situation similar to 2014.. But not very likely at the moment right now.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: April 13, 2017, 01:35:01 PM »
Thanks Csnavywx (and Espen). A double whammy, Atl. & Pac., would explain it, yes. 
And now we're almost back to lowest again. Hopefully the central pack has built up resilience over winter or things could get ugly, fast, this year. 

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: April 11, 2017, 03:13:54 PM »
Hello, newbie here.
Looking at the other years on the IJIS graph, there was a precipitous drop in 2004 for this week.  I wonder what conditions caused that dramatic free-fall? 

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