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Messages - gideonlow

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 05, 2016, 10:28:03 AM »
Has mentioned that the remaining ice's shape bears more than a passing resemblance to Tombaugh Regio, "The Heart"?  The left side—Sputnik Planum—even has huge floating "icebergs", complex thermal convection, and huge areas of broken-ice chaos instead of the CAA.  It is A LOT colder, however  :o

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tombaugh_Regio

Back to lurking now . . .

2
Developers Corner / Re: Neven's Blog Counter of Heat added by GW
« on: April 26, 2016, 07:36:02 AM »
Thanks Neven!

3
Developers Corner / Neven's Blog Counter of Heat added by GW
« on: April 25, 2016, 06:19:51 PM »
Does anyone know if this can be added to a FB page in a (permanently) visible spot?  Either as a link, or as a stand-alone widget of some sort?

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 08, 2016, 06:00:20 AM »
The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)

Just a little side note. I think we should see these things neutrally and not make them troublesome or a gift.
some regions will suffer and others will benefit while transitions will always cause disruptions. that's how things are and have always been. further i believe that the term "manmade" even though it's correct IMO, hence valid, does as well not mean good or bad, because we are a part of nature like any other factor involved. the right attempt would be to adapt and to take measures and deal with the consequences by reducing them and/or getting them under control, but not make things evil. i for my part enjoy the ever getting warmer winters and i'm living ocean side, hence not away from it all. this topic could fill many books hence it's not easy to make a good statement in a few lines but i neither like the denialists nore the doomsday approach, that's what i tried to express with this post

Unfortunately, trying to maintain a warm-and-fuzzy "let's not take it so seriously" attitude will do absolutely nothing to reduce the very real and catastrophic effects, the worst of which will be felt not by ocean-side dwelling First-worlders, but by 100's of millions of developing world people.  The world will not end, but from a human civilization perspective (especially those with less means to adapt) "doomsday" isn't so far from the truth. 

The problem is that such complacency leads to reduced action to avert more of the worst consequences.  We are already so, so far behind where we need to be . . . A strong sense of urgency is vital if our species hopes to survive in the future with anything close to the lifestyles most of us commenters are accustomed to.

5
Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: November 10, 2015, 09:20:49 PM »
Short note to say THANK YOU to ASLR, LMV, DO, wili, neven & others that generously provide the graphics & explanations for helping the rest of us better understand these complex phenomena. 

I bet Neven could provide statistics, but there are surely MANY other folks, like myself, that rarely post here but do read this site every single day!  The graphics are wonderful and very helpful.  But, the reason I come here is because you take the time to explain what they mean.  You put them into a context that I can understand.  This is not easy.  Hell, I am concerned that ASLR may strain something trying to come up with a new verb to describe how the SOI behaved (drifted, moved, jumped, dropped, etc.). 

Anyway, thank you for taking the time to make these subjects accessible for the rest of us.  Your efforts are very much appreciated!
+1!
Very well said!

+2! Many thanks ASLR and the other regular posters!

6
Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 13, 2015, 09:43:11 AM »
Per NOAA, over the last week, the Niño 3.4 region stayed at 2.4 C, the Niño 3 region stayed at 2.8 C, the Niño 1+2 regions cooled slightly to 2.7 C, and the Niño 4 region cooled slightly to 1.0 C.

Attached is the SST anomaly chart by OSPO for October 12th.

In the SST anomaly chart you attached . . . I just want to highlight that the middle of the Three distinct warm anomaly regions has evolved into a cyclone shape, with a cold anomaly "eye" perhaps 1,500 km west of the southern tip of Baja.  There are  several warm anomaly "bands" curving out mainly in the western semi-circle (but the opposite curvature that N. Hemi Hurricane/Typhoon bands display). 

Is this feature a reflection of actual/coherent large-scale forces, an artifact of the processing, or perhaps just chance?  Pretty cool IMHO in any case :-)

7
Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 08, 2015, 03:46:19 PM »
ASLR -- Can you explain this in more detail?  The typhoon was in April and looks like it would have driven a strong WWB for several days.  As powerful as it was, I don't see how it could have contributed to the demise of the event nearly a full year later.  The cycle from WWB/downwelling to EKW transit to upwelling of warm water in the East completes in about 4 months, right?  If memory serves (and based on the Stormsurf ENSO discussions I've been reading since 1997), Westerly anomalies continued well into the Fall of 1997.  I suspect I am missing something here.  Thx!

Quote
I attach the second image of the April 1997 Super Typhoon Isa storm track to remind readers that this one WWB probably accounts for the rapid rise and rapid drop-off of the 97-98 Super El Nino

8
Consequences / Re: Will Climate Change Lead to Genocide?
« on: September 19, 2015, 05:33:11 PM »
My biggest fear is that nationalist movements in the developed world will demand a government based on closed borders and a fascist-like demand for ideological purity, based on religion, race, ethnic origin or political philosophy.

You mean like Trump?  ;)

I fear we are heading that direction.

Exactly!

There is growing element of the right wing base of the GOP that is very opposed to any immigration reform and is the most anti-science element of the party.

The GOP presidential candidates must already deny myriad scientific facts as a litmus test, otherwise they have zero chance. Most of their candidates have more extreme views than Trump across the board, but are clever enough not to voice them in public directly. Not a single #GOPClownCar candidate is even remotely compatible with progressive, reasoned, scientific ways of thinking.

Scary indeed.

9
Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: September 11, 2015, 07:25:04 AM »
Thanks ASLR.  Robert Scribbler is one of the best and most prolific climate-related bloggers . . . His blog, Neven's and several of the threads on this forum are the only ones for which I make sure to read every word! 

The work you guys do is hugely important.

10
Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: September 09, 2015, 11:57:09 PM »
There has been a lot of discussion recently about the staying power of "The Blob" in the face of this year's El Niño event, with various opinions from "inconsequential" to "it will take months and many storms for The Blob to be affected" to "it's not going away" . . . One thing I have not yet seen discussed is the amount (or depth) of heat underlying the SST anomalies outside of the equatorial regions.

For the Niño regions, the SL anomalies and upper ocean heat content indexes are closely tracked and often discussed.  When I recently looked at a global map of SL anomalies, they did not appear to be nearly as high/widespread in the other warm areas of the Pacific as they are in the warm EastPac equatorial regions.  Does this imply that The Blob has less staying power and would be more easily disrupted by stormy conditions that mix water from depth?  I know that SL anomalies can be influenced by more than just local SST's, so perhaps looking at those alone is misleading.

Living on the Central California coast, I know that (local) anomalously warm SST are very easily disrupted by our usual NP High winds.  SST's can drop dramatically in just a couple of days when a warm spell is broken by strong winds.  Conversely, it seems to take longer for SST's to warm-up due to lack of winds and persistent sunny weather such as we've had much of this year.  These informal observations have led me to think that warm anomalies are much more easily disrupted than generated.

Is there more data that can help to predict the behavior of The Blob in the face of a strengthening Pacific storm track as we get deeper into the Fall (perhaps that some of the forecasting blogs have missed)?  Is there a reason this aspect hasn't been discussed more?

(back to lurking now!)

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 14, 2015, 09:34:41 PM »
Heading east Aventura reports:

Quote
Soon we were surrounded by ice once again, but we carried on valiantly as with only 80 miles to go to Bellot Strait we are determined to get there before the day is out.

The tracking map now shows them just a few miles from entering Bellot Strait!

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 12, 2015, 11:17:00 PM »
Is "Big MAC" for Mega Arctic Cyclone (and a Big one at that!)?

I've read everyone's reasoning or why reaching a record low extent is impossible now, and it's all very sensible, but I also have this nagging feeling that a Black Swan event—or what would have been such in the past—could shatter all expectations. 

As others have said: Are we sure that when the next minimum records are set, we'll see it coming?

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 08, 2015, 05:15:57 AM »
The barbecue never went out, Jim:  :'(



The image gets overlaid by a different tiling if you zoom-out any further, so some may have missed it (it is also only visible via Aqua/MODIS) . . . It looks like smoke is being drawn all the way into the central arctic, almost like a moisture tap of high perceptible waters.
 

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 07, 2015, 10:16:35 PM »
Smoke from the Alaska fires is definitely drifting over a substantial part of the ice now: http://1.usa.gov/1Hci5No

I wonder if enough is making it down to ice-level to offset the reduced insolation with reduced albedo.

EDIT: Image Attached.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 05, 2015, 04:55:44 AM »
Check out the feature between about 78 and 82 degrees N. and 150E and 165E,  in the daily AMSR2 concentration map.  It seems to be remarkably intact.  Maybe from a major fracturing event in the Beaufort?  There seems to perhaps be an interference pattern of Two different fracturing events to the SW of the main feature. 

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 01, 2015, 01:32:49 PM »
I have to agree that you're on to something major happing.  These numbers would mean about 40% of all the ice as of June 1st disappeared in just 30 days, with about 75 days of melt remaining.  Truly remarkable!  I'm reminded of the discussion some time back about the meaning of the ice going "poof!" 

In this context, the fact that extent remains relatively high might suggest that the potential for melting LOTS of ice (in absolute terms, not just as a percentage of remaining) is still very high . . . Perhaps even as high as it was on June 1st?  If we subtract ANOTHER 9100 km^3 by August 1st, where would that leave us?? That's a very scary thought.  If the Arctic was going to pull some kind of major unexpected surprise, it would probably look something like this  :o

Cheers,

Gideon

Alright, i'll be my own guest, then. Illustrating yesterday's proposition, let's eye-ball the
.

Then substruct 9100 km^3 for this June - the figure i was talking about yesterday (which is -8200km^3 for June 1...27th from DMI, extrapolated for whole June) - from the PIOMASS June 1st value (~21500 km^3). The result would be ~12400 km^3 by July 1st. Which is ~1300 km^3 less than in 2013 and ~2000 km^3 less than in 2014, for July 1st, isn't it?

12400 km^3 in PIOMASS terms is in fact exactly between 2011 and 2012 figures, with difference from both being ~<500km^3.

Someone said we don't have the extra ice from the "rebound" melted away, yesterday. Well, if DMI is not utter lunatism, then we actually do. Right now. It is July 1st, gentlemen.

Really can't wait for what PIOMASS will show in its next report. I still stick with my prediction for  significant chances for "most ice melt for the month of June _ever_" in it.

17
Wait a minute . . . what's that watermark-like facial image doing there in the corner of the last image (Petermann moraine shear.jpg)???  :o

18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Trip to Jakobshavn Isbræ?
« on: April 10, 2015, 06:05:56 AM »
Wow! That's an incredibly enticing suggestion, and would doubtlessly be the adventure of a lifetime for nature, snow, and ice (and science) lovers like myself (& I'm sure so many others here).  If JI's calving front can hang-in there another couple of years, who knows? 

You're idea certainly got me thinking . . . How can a software/systems/IT professional on the cutting-edge of real-time/big data processing contribute to such a venture?

Cheers,

Gideon

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: March 31, 2015, 09:27:00 PM »
But I would suggest that one's enthusiasm might be better directed at learning and observing . . . .  Certainty in one's correctness and actual knowledge of a topic are typically negatively correlated.  The more one learns, the more they learn how much they don't actually know. 

These are great words of wisdom. 

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 26, 2015, 08:43:44 AM »
Attached is the March 25th Aqua-Modis 7-2-1 close-up for the same spot.  Something loopy going-on here?  Occam's Razor would certainly suggest this is caused by something in the image processing chain . . .

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 13, 2014, 08:30:05 AM »
I can't really figure-out exactly what's going on here, but: Beautiful!

From http://climate.audubon.org/article/12-views-warming-world:

"These opalescent streaks are actually rivulets of glacial meltwater, making their way from ice caps to the sea. The milky appearance comes from all the dissolved sediments, known as rock flour, once locked away in the ice. The tiny rivers’ beauty conceals a dark reality: The country’s more than 300 glaciers are losing 11 billion tons of ice a year. Photo Credit: Solent News/Splash News/Corbis"

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 12, 2014, 09:03:50 PM »
Wow!!  Imagine a moderate wind swell impacting that slush.  I know the resolution of the image obscures the fact that there are still many intact (smaller) floes, probably 10's of meters across. Still, I'm visualizing waves sloshing all over that ice and melting it from all sides.  It sure looks like it is about to go "poof!"

It cannot be helped, the ESS must be the region of today. About one third of the remaining ice (measured by area) has disappeared in one day. Some, probably thicker, ice has gathered and contrasts as an area of high concentration ice, the rest seems to be in a "bad" state.

Perhaps, with the late assistance of the wind, the season's relentless inputs of heat into the ESS and peripheral seas, raising water temps, are via bottom melt finally "burning" through the remaining ESS ice?

Looking east of that in the Beaufort, there is a *lot* of area which no doubt is showing up as "ice" both in extent and area, which scarcely justifies the description.  This is EOSDIS of a moderately substantial area of the Beaufort from yesterday.

There's more from where that came from.  What a fascinating melt season.  What a fascinating season, period.  Snow in Calgary two days ago.  Temps in the low 30's (90F) in Seattle this weekend. 

Wuff.



23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Mysterious May–June Development
« on: August 29, 2014, 07:30:24 PM »
I think that a regional break-down of the same graphs might be revealing.  How much of the increase in May/June melt is due to earlier melt-out of the more Southern regions like Hudson and Bering?  It seems to me that the drive towards an ice free arctic will soon be dominated by how the Arctic Basin (and perhaps northern CAA) melt plays-out—as we enter a state where all other regions melt-out completely (or close to it) every year.  Mixing together data for all the regions is probably mixing various (negative and positive) feedbacks that play-out quite differently in the different regions, with different latitudes, bathymetry, weather & current influences, etc.  Thus, mixing them all together (and trying to draw conclusions from this) just introduces confusion.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 07, 2014, 08:37:27 AM »
Very cool "wake" coming off Henrietta Island in this morning's Terra Modis:

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: July 16, 2014, 12:30:55 AM »
Quote
The opening of the Nares is interesting, too. It's still a little plugged, but it looks like a zone of ice north of the mouth is fragmenting and getting ready to wash through. If so, we could see something of a polnya open north of greenland.

Try zooming-in on NASA Worldview, then clicking between today's date and yesterday's date:

July 14th: http://1.usa.gov/1rp3Y2m

July 15th: http://1.usa.gov/1rp3Nnw

Looking at the movement of the ice floes that are almost due North of Petermman Fjord, and comparing with the provided scale, the ice is moving about 8km per DAY!!!  I don't know how that compares with "normal", but I find it very impressive for ice that, at a glance, appears not to be very mobile.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: July 05, 2014, 02:39:38 AM »
This looks very much like eddy's we sometimes get during summertime off the coast of Central California.  They form in the stratocumulus (marine fog) layer, which is of-course cooler/denser air underneath warm/hot high pressure air.  These eddy's don't usually have their circulation close-off so cleanly, but I've seen it happen.  They CAN produce some moderately strong winds (20 to 30 or 35kts).

Our Mini-Cyclone is reminiscent of the desert "dust devils" so prevalent on hot days over dried lake beds in the American Southwest. Dust devils form from very hot near surface air interacting with relatively cooler air above & flat surfaces help their formation, intensity & duration.
Wonder if our little friend functions in the  same manner?
Terry

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will we see open ocean at the north pole?
« on: August 17, 2013, 03:34:46 AM »
PC -- I leave it to others more knowledgeable than myself to comment on how common these specific conditions are at 90 degrees North . . . But, I don't think we're looking at anything resembling "briefly open leads" in these images. 

Beyond that, DNFTT!

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will we see open ocean at the north pole?
« on: August 17, 2013, 12:59:41 AM »
First post from a long time lurker on the main site so apologies for being a little off topic. These images have the potential to be very powerful shared via social media and beyond in alerting those not yet fully aware of the consequences of climate change. What are the copyright / etiquette rules on sharing these?

I'm actively involved in green politics in the UK and it is difficult to swallow that the vast majority of voters are simply ignorant of what is going on. Thanks and credit to all contributors here and on Neven's blog.

Here is the verbiage from the NASA Worldview website:

"
Imagery Use
NASA supports an open data policy and we encourage publication of imagery from Worldview; when doing so, please cite it as "NASA Worldview" and also consider including a permalink (such as this one) to allow others to explore the imagery.
"

The Nasa Worldview site from which the image is copied is here: http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview

More information here: http://earthdata.nasa.gov/about-eosdis

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will we see open ocean at the north pole?
« on: August 16, 2013, 09:30:28 AM »
Yesterday's satellite image of the NP captured a pretty cloud-free view.  Larger polynias in the attached image reach 100 Sq. Km+ in size and are less than ~150 km from the pole itself.  If you were in the middle of one of these on a clear day without inversions causing a mirage effect (I.E. lensing the distant ice "shores" to make them appear close), you'd see nothing but open ocean in all directions due the curvature of the earth.  Perhaps there are smaller floes too small to see at this resolution, but still, wow.

(Of course, you have to be logged-in to see the attached image . . .)

30
I usually don't waste time with trolls, deniers, the generally rude and the dogmatically entrenched, but I couldn't resist reflecting upon the ironic implication of a statement here:

Quote
Keep making shit up you idoits, you will lose.

When anyone speaks, they represent - at the very least - themselves.

Indeed.  In never ceases to amaze me how most of the people that fit the above categories fail to recognize how obviously and immediately they betray themselves.  We occasionally see some Trolls that manage to disguise themselves for perhaps a few posts.  Even then, their (albeit subtler) methods usually reveal their true nature soon enough . . . Thank you Neven for doing such a great job moderating (in addition to everything else!).

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Melt Ponds!
« on: July 28, 2013, 10:01:14 PM »
An image showing "Extensive melt pond coverage... on the Alaskan side of the Arctic Ocean" from the NPEO web site:



If you follow the cataracts of water closely, a large percentage of the "melt ponds" on these floes connect directly to open sea in one way or another.  To me, it looks a lot more like a floe that's reached a combination of irregularity in its surface smoothness (but what means, I'm not sure) and overall reduction in thickness that it is simply half-way under(sea)water.

This would certainly hash with the behavior of the "North Pole Lake Webcam" we've been tracking lately.  Instead of "draining", the ice could have indeed risen to "drain" a salt-water lake due to disintegration of nearby parts of the larger floe whose weight was holding that area down.  Too bad there isn't a salinity sensor on the part of the bouy that may eventually end-up in a "melt pond" :-)

Cheers,

Gideon

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: July 03, 2013, 07:45:06 PM »
Now that I see the proper scale, I agree it is definitely too small to be the Goat's Head (and even though the resemblance was uncanny, the new shape I found is also incorrect in that it's a mirror image).  The last time I saw the GH in one of (I think) A-Team's animations, however, it was directly over the pole & perhaps losing a horn. With all the thrashing being doled-out by the 2013-PAC, plus with the typical drift from the pole towards the Fram seemingly interrupted recently, the positioning seemed to be reasonable. 

Thanks for taking a look.

@SH -- Although the Goat may have succeeded in, ahem, gaining its independence from profiteering ownership, at least it hasn't "Bought the Fram" ;-)

Cheers,

Gideon

33
Arctic sea ice / Found the Goat's Head?
« on: July 02, 2013, 05:44:38 AM »
I think I found it yesterday hiding in the "Terra/MODIS Corrected Reflectance (3-6-7)" layer on NASA Worldview.



If you look at the center-right area, basically following the 60 Degrees East Longitude, the putative "Goat's Head" is sitting on its side, with the longer "horn" sticking out below the line and to the right, and the smaller "horn" above that (also to the right).  The "head" extends along/above the longitude line down to the left.  Both horns are starting to disintegrate, but the one to the bottom/right (the "left" side of the head looking at you) is holding together better.  I've attached a cut-out of the shape, but am not sure how to imbed my attachment in the this post  :-\

So, my stupid question is: Have I actually found the famous "Goat's Head", or is this just a coincidentally similar shape in the same general area where the real Goat's Head was last spotted?  Interestingly, the shape is only visible--at least to my untrained eye--with the Terra MODIS 3-6-7 Corrected Reflectance layer.

I asked the question on Neven's blog, but I think this is probably the most appropriate place.

Cheers,

Gideon

Update: Ah, I just saw when I posted, the attachements did indeed show-up in the post (even though they didn't show-up in the preview).

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