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Messages - Pavel

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 18, 2020, 11:42:20 PM »
Last year the Laptev sea has delayed refreeze and there was still open water in early November. This year I think 2-3 more weeks at least to delay freeze up. The Kara sea is also very warm and it should take a long while until the heat would be lost. I hope at least the weather pattern won't repeat the 2016 autumn. But however the last winter caused low snow extent in Eurasia

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 06:53:53 AM »
The Fram export will be very high this week as the strong winds push the remaining ice to get out. The Beaufort ice tongue will continue to shrink. Some cold weather is expected in the Pacific side but it looks the melting still stronger then little refreeze. I won't be surprised if extent will drop 400-500k until the minimum

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 06:47:54 AM »
Shall we start the freezing season thread?
Even if the ice surface is frozen the ocean heat flux continues to melt the ice from the bottom side. In the Beaufort sea it will last well into October. This year I think more energy stored in the Ocean due to the GAAC in July

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:05:40 AM »
The extra volume in the Beaufort sea means the extent will continue to drop in the late August and September. I also expect the late minimun like it was last year. Meanwhile the Blue Ocean in Siberian side could be seen by the end of July. The ocean will be too warm, the ice in the high Arctic will be too thin and the total disaster is possible

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 06:43:52 AM »
Beaufort Sea ice should be fine at the end of the season. Everywhere else...  :-\
However the bottom melt in the Beaufort sea will continue well into September and even October. It's not the safe place to store the extra volume.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 28, 2020, 09:17:07 PM »
The GFS forecast for July 2nd looks afwul. The clear skies, the Laptev bite marches to the Pole, ice dispersion in the ESS where the dispersed ice pack will melt out completely for sure

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 10:20:15 AM »
Today's worldview clear image shows the low concentrated area north of 80 latitude. This is a dangerous place where I expect the Laptev bite will extend very far to the Pole this year

8
I vote between 3,50 and 4,00 considering the remaining ice loss will be average of the last 10 years. The bad start of the season but CAA looks safely. I may change the bet until June 10 if the melt ponds will apper early in the high Arctic

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 12:31:21 PM »
However the CAA still resistant for the early melting. The snow depth is quite above average in that region. I expect more ice survived in CAA/Beaufort than 2012. But the Laptev bite can extend very far to the Pole because of thin ice and bad season start

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 08:09:49 AM »
The Laptev fast ice is turning blue. 2012 had it relatively at the same time. 2017-2019 had it later. But the general state of Laptev is the worst ever, and GFS supposes it will be blasted by strong heat in the first days if June

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 26, 2020, 05:46:48 PM »
You cannot have the bad conditions everywhere at the same time. The positive land snow anomalies are situated in the places far from the CAB. The whole inner basin will start to melt in less than a week. Lower albedo, more energy absorbed and futher albedo drop. The ice between the Pole and Laptev is not thick enough that one could be confident it will survive

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 09:54:24 PM »
The ice is very blue in the Hudson bay despite the land snow refuses to melt in that region during the entire spring.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 23, 2020, 01:28:58 PM »
The albedo precondition in Siberian seas is much worse this year than 2012 (and very much worse than 2017-2019 years). Only hope the Beaufort and CAA will have more ice survived this year

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 21, 2020, 09:28:06 AM »
This is outside of my comfort zone to post about, but I'm sort of surprised by the lack of talk about the 00Z GFS forecast over the next 7 days. Starting Saturday we see above zero Avg. temperatures start to creep in over the Beaufort, the Laptev and the Kara, and then it just keeps coming.

By the 28th almost the whole arctic (excepting the CAA) is at or above 0 avg temperature.
It's not 100% reliable but the GFS snow depth forecast supposes the massive meltponding in the inner basin even before June is starting. One can see on the Worldview how quickly the land snow melts each day in northern Siberia

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 15, 2020, 09:00:31 AM »
Of course it's not reliable, but GFS supposes  Eurasia will lost much of its remaining snow by May 25. Also huge areas of the Beaufort, Chuckchi, ESS, Laptev sea ice will also lose snow what mean ice turning blue

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 11, 2020, 07:47:29 AM »
The Chukchi sea ice is starting to turning blue, the image of yesterday

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 05, 2020, 08:26:28 AM »
GFS supposes snow will be gone in the Chuckchi sea in 10 days, this mean ice turning blue. But the snow in some parts of North America will continue to refuse melting

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 28, 2020, 08:35:12 PM »
2020 tries to self-isolate.
I expect this year will be worse than 2019 especially if the Siberian side will melt out early, what is very likely. The Beaufort sea and CAA look more safely but everything can happen

19
Just to compare how Siberia looks today and at the same date of 2012.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 25, 2020, 03:09:58 PM »
Is it just me or there are darker areas in Nares Strait? Looks like we will see opening of Nares really soon.



Whether that's snow cover loss, or material deposition, this is very anomalous.
Wasn't there a recent wave above 0C?
It had turned gray after a strong cyclone in early April. The north of Greenland is also gray

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 25, 2020, 11:13:46 AM »
Considering the last year low September extent, the highest albedo warming potential and late start of refreeze I'm not surprised the current volume is one of the lowest or even the lowest on record. Yes, it was cold north of 80 latitude but much of that ice has been exporeted through the Fram strait.
Good news is the weather forecasts don't promise extreme melting events in the CAB, but the land snow will melt quickly in some places

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 23, 2020, 10:25:50 AM »
Western Siberia today 23.04 and the same day of year in 2019

23
Only miracle should happen to protect the Siberian seas from the early melt out. In 2017 there were June snowfalls but this year I rather expect the early meltponding to accelerate disaster

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 18, 2020, 11:47:03 PM »
If the snow on the ice melts because of heat and moisture and refreezes after that, the albedo drops significantly. It may cause early meltponding, futher albedo drop and volume loss much more than Fram export

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 18, 2020, 07:14:40 PM »

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 17, 2020, 01:04:26 PM »
Fram export will reduce but also polynyas are opening up in the CAB because of ice movement. From the weather forecast one can expect the polynyas won't refreeze but rather expand more

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 16, 2020, 02:44:43 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 15, 2020, 01:52:04 PM »
Ice melting in the Barents sea due to the strong cyclone and heat advection. Animation yesterday/today

29
Significant snow loss is expected on the Barents, Kara and Laptev coasts. The Taimyr peninsula snow will start to melt at least one month earlier than usual, much worse than in 2012

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 01:38:17 PM »
Air temperature in Tiksi (the Laptev coast) was 21.2 C above average that day. Heat waves will continue in Siberian side. Meanwhile almost 500 Gt of snow melted out in Eurasia in just 11 days. It's more than Greenland melt in whole season

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 12, 2020, 09:36:23 AM »
The spring is coming half month earlier than usuall. There is more snow depth in the higher latitudes but it may start to melt earlier

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 06, 2020, 11:14:57 PM »
A strong 963 hPa cyclone is going to set up in several days. Huge polynyas could be open in the Laptev sea and ESS

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 04, 2020, 09:12:33 PM »
It's cold north of 80 latitude but warmer than average in the lower latitudes. Not a good pattern for the sea ice because the Fram export is high and the thick ice will leave anyway but the land snow is starting to melt more quickly

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 03, 2020, 08:02:17 AM »
We have 0.5 mln sq km of additional sea ice extent but also 4 mln sq km of the gray land where we expect to have the white snow this time of year. It's spring now and albedo is important

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:56:45 PM »
Very quick export in just a week. The Laptev sea looks vulnerable because it has lost its autumn ice and has lack of fast ice, combined with the late start of refreeze. If the Siberian snow will melt early the Laptev bite could be very strong this summer

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 09, 2020, 11:18:58 AM »
The Laptev sea has the huge areas of the new thin ice. The wind pattern in the next days will continue to push the ice toward the Fram strait.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 06, 2020, 03:14:49 PM »

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.
In february and march the lower latitudes are more important in terms of albedo while the higher latitudes snow cover become important in May/June. We have now extra heat absorbing in 3 mln sq km of land

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2020, 11:35:55 AM »
The snow cover extent is about 3 mln sq km below average. It's important because we have lack of snow in the lower latitudes and albedo is important.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:18:29 AM »
The snow cover extent still well below average while the sun comes back.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 06, 2020, 10:39:01 AM »
The new thin ice is forming in the Laptev sea while the old ice is moving to the Fram strait. This is the usuall pattern but this summer the Siberian and the Chuckchi side could be vulnurable because of lack of thick ice

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 27, 2019, 11:53:43 AM »
The current snow depth in Norilsk, Russia

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 25, 2019, 10:00:42 AM »
The snow cover extent drops well below average and it is especially low in Europe. The sun is low in the sky but it will turn back soon

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 03, 2019, 10:34:39 PM »
A 946 hPa cyclone is going to set up in the northern Atlantic. Won't affect the ice pack directly but will boost the Fram export

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 08:56:38 PM »
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2019, 10:28:19 PM »
Fram export via Sentinel SAR

Click to play

Thanks for this. Some of those big floes could be very thick MYI according to Cryosat-2 data

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2019, 10:16:46 AM »
GFS suppose the heat advection to the Arctic from the Pacific side in 8-10 days and cold anomalies in America. Not reliable by now, but could be the first significant heat wave this freeze season

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 25, 2019, 09:16:54 AM »
The weather forecasts don't promise any noticeable heat advection to the high Arctic. Now it's time for the peripheral seas to finally freeze up quickly

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2019, 08:47:52 PM »
Good thing that didn't happen in July or August  :-\
The MYI leaving to the Fram strait and being replaced by FYI (or even open water) is not a good thing. We may start the next melt season with the thin FYI north of 80 latitude and very thin ice on the peripheral seas.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 18, 2019, 11:35:49 AM »
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?
The ice could be more thin than usuall. But the freezing season is long enough to make up to 2m-thickness FYI. Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 10:45:20 AM »
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway

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