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Messages - Pavel

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 12, 2020, 09:36:23 AM »
The spring is coming half month earlier than usuall. There is more snow depth in the higher latitudes but it may start to melt earlier

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 06, 2020, 11:14:57 PM »
A strong 963 hPa cyclone is going to set up in several days. Huge polynyas could be open in the Laptev sea and ESS

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 04, 2020, 09:12:33 PM »
It's cold north of 80 latitude but warmer than average in the lower latitudes. Not a good pattern for the sea ice because the Fram export is high and the thick ice will leave anyway but the land snow is starting to melt more quickly

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 03, 2020, 08:02:17 AM »
We have 0.5 mln sq km of additional sea ice extent but also 4 mln sq km of the gray land where we expect to have the white snow this time of year. It's spring now and albedo is important

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:56:45 PM »
Very quick export in just a week. The Laptev sea looks vulnerable because it has lost its autumn ice and has lack of fast ice, combined with the late start of refreeze. If the Siberian snow will melt early the Laptev bite could be very strong this summer

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 09, 2020, 11:18:58 AM »
The Laptev sea has the huge areas of the new thin ice. The wind pattern in the next days will continue to push the ice toward the Fram strait.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 06, 2020, 03:14:49 PM »

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.
In february and march the lower latitudes are more important in terms of albedo while the higher latitudes snow cover become important in May/June. We have now extra heat absorbing in 3 mln sq km of land

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2020, 11:35:55 AM »
The snow cover extent is about 3 mln sq km below average. It's important because we have lack of snow in the lower latitudes and albedo is important.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:18:29 AM »
The snow cover extent still well below average while the sun comes back.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 06, 2020, 10:39:01 AM »
The new thin ice is forming in the Laptev sea while the old ice is moving to the Fram strait. This is the usuall pattern but this summer the Siberian and the Chuckchi side could be vulnurable because of lack of thick ice

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 27, 2019, 11:53:43 AM »
The current snow depth in Norilsk, Russia

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 25, 2019, 10:00:42 AM »
The snow cover extent drops well below average and it is especially low in Europe. The sun is low in the sky but it will turn back soon

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 03, 2019, 10:34:39 PM »
A 946 hPa cyclone is going to set up in the northern Atlantic. Won't affect the ice pack directly but will boost the Fram export

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 08:56:38 PM »
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2019, 10:28:19 PM »
Fram export via Sentinel SAR

Click to play

Thanks for this. Some of those big floes could be very thick MYI according to Cryosat-2 data

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2019, 10:16:46 AM »
GFS suppose the heat advection to the Arctic from the Pacific side in 8-10 days and cold anomalies in America. Not reliable by now, but could be the first significant heat wave this freeze season

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 25, 2019, 09:16:54 AM »
The weather forecasts don't promise any noticeable heat advection to the high Arctic. Now it's time for the peripheral seas to finally freeze up quickly

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2019, 08:47:52 PM »
Good thing that didn't happen in July or August  :-\
The MYI leaving to the Fram strait and being replaced by FYI (or even open water) is not a good thing. We may start the next melt season with the thin FYI north of 80 latitude and very thin ice on the peripheral seas.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 18, 2019, 11:35:49 AM »
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?
The ice could be more thin than usuall. But the freezing season is long enough to make up to 2m-thickness FYI. Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 10:45:20 AM »
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 11:02:36 AM »
Thanks for the update. It looks the Fram export was low in volume because the survived ice is very thin

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 01:53:18 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 2 - 8

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The colder temperatures exactly where the ice pack is. It's about a week until the inner basin should start to refreeze very quickly. But we'll see how it will go this year since it was the highest AWP in summer this year

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:59:15 PM »
Now it is October and we can see the SMOS thin ice thickness map. The survived ice in the Laptev side is really thin. Thanks to the August weather that slush have survived

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 29, 2019, 11:02:12 PM »
Despite the persistent HP and lack of heat advection the high Arctic temperatures track near record warm levels

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2019, 09:13:15 PM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 10:21:04 AM »
The new ice is forming on the Laptev side, ice edge moves to the North by winds

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 21, 2019, 11:52:35 PM »
The ESS cools but it still warmer in general. At this point I don't expect quickly extent increase in September. The peripheral seas will be ready to freeze in mid-October likely. But it need the heat advection to repeat the 2016 pattern. Also the land snow cover extent is now about normal despite some early snowfalls in Siberia

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 19, 2019, 02:45:12 PM »
Today extent declines in the Laptev side due to compaction, it's visible on the Worldview. But in the Pacific side ice may expand because of spreading and cold temperatures.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2019, 03:15:08 PM »
NSIDC had an uptick of 50k yesterday because of noise and it did not show 2019 at the 2nd lowest minimum. So the century break mostly because of clearing noise. But it's of course unusual for this date despite the new ice is appearing in some places we're not sure the extent minimum is reached.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 17, 2019, 09:28:59 PM »
One can see clearly on the Worldview that the new ice is forming on the nothern Greenland fjords and in the Nares strait. Some real (bottom) melting occur only in the Beaufort and Greenland seas. But in general the melting season is over and only compaction can decrease extent

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 14, 2019, 11:16:24 AM »
The land snow cover extent start to increase. One can expect more precipitation and snow in the fall/winter due to extra open water and higher SSTs in the Arctic Ocean

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 08:36:29 AM »
Wind @ Surface
The winds push the ice to the Fram strait. It may increase extent but CAB is loosing its Best ice

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 08, 2019, 09:53:25 AM »
Wind + Temp @ Surface
The bottom melting continues almost everywhere and the slush in the Pacific side still be melting for some weeks.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 07, 2019, 09:42:16 AM »
Quote
the slush that counts for extent these day
Well said. But I would say the Arctic has managed to dodge a cannonball in summer (August). It could be worse now.  I'm concerned about the SST and the possibility the ice won't recover this winter and next melt season will start with record low volume.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:38:48 AM »
Thanks for the update. The thickest remaining ice is now mooving to the  Fram strait. And 2019 has the highest AWP that one can expect the slow refreeze. I think 2019 Will take the 1st place again in October-November.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 30, 2019, 02:34:06 PM »
The Fram export will increase, dispersion will decrease, even some compaction on the Pacific side in the next 5 days. The weather is unremarkable but the sea surface is too warm that one can expect the delay of refreeze

37
Thanks for the update. The race is over for the first place at minimum. But 2019 can take the lead again in the fall

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 13, 2019, 01:05:17 PM »
120k is not a big difference with 2012 and it may decrease tomorrow. Quick extent drop can continue due to the Laptev bite and compaction on the Atlantic side

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 12, 2019, 05:29:15 PM »
2nd place is likely at minimum but this year most probably will take the lead again in the fall due to the AWP and the extra ocean heat accumulated. 2019 is very bad year in the long term ice loss.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 09, 2019, 08:51:09 PM »
The smoke of the wildfires looks impressive

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 10:36:25 AM »
Well, the 1030 High near the 987 low dancing on the weak ice in the Laptev side. I think things may get even worse but it's already enough to bite the CAB

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 08, 2019, 09:27:13 AM »
The CAB ice in the Laptev side looks weak. The next few days with strong winds and heat may cause more damage

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 03:53:06 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.

This only 3-4 degrees lower than at the solstice but the albedo is drastically dropped. Also I mean strong winds cause by this HP

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 02:53:03 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 09:47:25 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.
Almost all ice North of 80 in the Laptev side is the FYI. It can melt out even if it Will stay in the High Arctic. Also we'll have early melt of the peripheral seas, the highest SST, more killing zones for the CAB ice that Will drift to the south. The melting season can Last longer due to the Ocean extra heat accumulated + more possibility of strong storms

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 03:58:02 PM »
The Laptev bite can hit the Pole this year, and the MYI on the Pacific side is not very thick according to PIOMAS. There Will be also the ESS bite, the Chuckchi bite and the Beaufort bite hitting the CAB.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 03:01:38 PM »
 I see the 50% probability of 2019 ending #1 in extent, 70% probability of #1 in volume and 99% of the highest AWP.

48
Between 3.25 and 3.75 but I think it won't beat 2012, at least it need strong melt conditions

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 11:26:24 PM »
The strong High Pressure Will cause damage to the FYI at the North Pole. Combined with the hight Fram export we'll have many holes at the Pole by the end of July. I also think all peripheral seas Will melt out completely (some MYI could be exported to the Beaufort). Looks like 2019 Will take the title in September

50
I've been waiting until this day to put my vote and now I think the new record is possible, my guess between 3 and 3,50

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