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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 22, 2019, 11:57:41 PM »
Even if we have slightly more melt than precipitation right now. Most losses are happening in June and July. On the attached gif I compared the 10th July 2012 with today. It almost looks like we have no melt right now.
What we have at the moment is much lower SMB gain compared with both the average and 2012..In June and July 2012 SMB fell off a cliff. All one can say is that this year as at May 21 is perhaps ahead of the game compared with 2012 - darker surface at least on the fringes where melt has been quite strong and very persistent.

2
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 22, 2019, 11:48:41 PM »
This should be good!

https://cage.uit.no/2019/05/21/new-leonardo-dicaprio-documentary-includes-scientists-from-cage-premiers-at-2019-cannes-film-festival/?fbclid=IwAR1BEdYqIDhbVySSjQ8PfS9L-JyED7xj9IdIybVH8rMbScSEuQJSRsNepmc
Any publicity of the mess we are in is good. But I cannot resist the temptation to....


"Methaneggedon!!!!" the Hollywood disaster movie to end all disaster movies.

Our young, brilliant, but difficult scientist (with a raft of personal problems) warns the scientific establishment that there are vast pools of liquid methane close to the surface along the Arctic Ocean fringe. Global warming means that channels are opening up from the surface down to and between these vast deposits- and ignition of just one of these surface channels could......

He/she is discredited and humiliated at the IPCC meeting.

But MegaCorp has stolen her/his  research, and blindly seeks to drill to capture the methane. A careless mechanic, an electrical short - ignition, rapidly spreading. The tundra and the ocean are on fire. Lots of exploding icebergs and LNG container ships.

Can the planet be saved?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 22, 2019, 08:21:10 PM »
algal bloom ? .. b.c.
I go for sediment - the flood comes in a rush bringing vast quantities of silt etc that flows and spreads as it hits the ocean.

4
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: May 22, 2019, 08:11:28 PM »



Modern agro-industry improves food productivity in the short to medium-term and also relies on expanding into new areas and ever-increasing doses of herbicides, pesticides and fertilisers.

***

If food production continues without major problems for the next 20 to 30 years, losing 1 million species from the biosphere will seen as a gross underestimate. (e.g. The Amazon will be a place without forest as it is required for agro-industry).

gerontocrat,

I totally agree with you on the first part. We must change practices to regenerative agriculture which is already totally viable and able to produce as much food as we produce now.

And this is the reason I do not agree with you on the second part. We can keep up biodiversity AND produce enough food for the planet. We have the solution, we "only" need to apply it.
You are an optimist - some days I am. But today all I can see is Bolsanaro handing over the Amazon to the loggers and the agro-industry. And as the Special Report said - 12 years left to get a grip (more like 11 or less as this year we go backwards on all fronts).

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 22, 2019, 07:21:53 PM »
Nuclear Fusion, titrium release danger.

Oh well, there's no such thing as a free lunch.

(After all, even solar power carries with it some environmental disbenefits, that will have to be fixed.)

It is good to read Sam's posts - loads of good solid data to justify the conclusions.

6
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: May 22, 2019, 06:54:32 PM »
Just seeing if ImageJ: 57 gif frames --> avi --> mov --> mp4 works using the free and fast online converter at https://www.freefileconvert.com/mov-mp4

It does works for me on a Mac and accomplishes a huge reduction in file size, from 90 to 3.3 MB making it feasible for the forum.

The movie shows the developing arm of the Beaufort Gyre as seen by Ascat from day 255 of 2018 (Sept 12th) to day 141 of 2019 (May 21st) using 5 day intervals except for the last 3 dates. This spans 251 days.
Works fine - on Windows 10, Google Chrome (on-line and downloaded)

ps: need to find freebie mp4 and gif players that let me slow down the frames per second. My old eyes and brain can't keep up.

7
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: May 22, 2019, 06:44:52 PM »
Most of the increase in food prices can be tied to fuel costs.  Compare those graph to oil prices.  Relative food prices have been falling for decades.
I would be surprised if there is not a correlation between the relative price of food to world GDP and the increased pace of the 6th Mass Extinction.

Modern agro-industry improves food productivity in the short to medium-term and also relies on expanding into new areas and ever-increasing doses of herbicides, pesticides and fertilisers.

Malthus got 3 things wrong (in my most un-humble opinion)....
- being unaware of the massive areas as yet unexploited for agriculture (e.g. North America),
- saying it is the poor who are the major drain on resources,
- underestimating how long systems manage to stagger on before collapsing (very common in eco-systems).

If food production continues without major problems for the next 20 to 30 years, losing 1 million species from the biosphere will seen as a gross underestimate. (e.g. The Amazon will be a place without forest as it is required for agro-industry).

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« on: May 22, 2019, 06:27:33 PM »
The German auto industry is imploding.  So for sure that means it’s party time on this “Death to Cars” thread, amiright?  And any kind of government help should be verboten, of course!

Quote
"The German automotive association expects the industry to make a substantial request for aid by the end of May"
If the World's car-makers, including Germany can't make a buck on sales of 86 million vehicles it is by pure mismanagement.

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/global/2018-full-year-international-worldwide-car-sales-and-global-market-analysis/
Quote

2018 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales and Global Market Analysis
February 23, 2019 by Henk Bekker in Global, International

In 2018, around 86 million cars were sold in the top 54 world markets. SUVs were popular worldwide and electric car sales grew by 75%.

SUVs accounted for more than a third of all new cars sold worldwide in 2018
Global car and light commercial vehicle sales in 2018 contracted by 0.5% to 86 million vehicles. The Volkswagen Group, Toyota and Renault-Nissan were the largest carmakers and manufacturing groups in the world in 2018.

According to Jato, 2018 marked a somewhat challenging year for the global car market, as sales fell for the first time since 2009. However, worldwide car sales remained near record levels.

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 22, 2019, 05:34:42 PM »
Most days should be nice and clear images from the Nares Strait - see Hans Island weather forecast

Though perhaps not so clear round the corner - see Kap Morris Jesup forecast

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 22, 2019, 02:24:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,330,748 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,330,748    km2      
-387,040    km2   <   2010's average.
-268,441    k   <   2018
-804,443    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -60    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas__   -45    k   loss
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Area loss 60 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 59 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (288k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

There are signs of above average AREA loss in the central seas, including those seas that must be open for the North-West Passage to be open this year.

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 22, 2019, 01:33:06 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 21 May 2019

16 to 21 May Precipitation outweighs melt on these days, but not by much.

Next 10 days The GFS forecast has changed a lot. It now looks as if Greenland will be very dry, with even the SE looking much dryer than average. With above zero temperatures on much of the East and West coastal fringes in the long afternoons, my prediction that belongs to me is that there will be an occasional day of SMB loss.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 22, 2019, 12:11:41 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,209,501 km2(May 21, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 258 k > 2016, 95 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 50 k, 4 k less than the average loss of 54 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,062 k, 489 k (19%) greater than the average of 2,573k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 26.0% of the melting season done, with 115 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.90 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There are signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year. Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist?

From now methinks I will confine myself to the area and extent data.On average, just over 25% of the melting season is done. In a couple of weeks the June Poll?

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 21, 2019, 06:16:43 PM »
Back to the Beaufort. I would say that there's hardly a difference with 2016. Maybe there's a bit more snow on the coast now, but then again, Amundsen Bay is already completely free of ice. In the comparison below, I've added June 12th 2016, ie three weeks from today:
The Beaufort looks really bad. But Wipneus' UH area chart still shows there is a bit more ice than in 2016, although the gap has shrunk considerably.
NSIDC area sea ice graph looking a bit different.
2018 much lower than 2018, but still about 100 km2 more than 2016

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2019, 03:00:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,390,638 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,390,638    km2      
-386,461    km2   <   2010's average.
-275,551    k   <   2018
-807,982    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -76    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas__   -53    k   loss
Other Seas___   -4    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -14    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area loss 76 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 58 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (291k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side.

Of note, is the recent increase in daily area loss in the Central  Arctic Seas - defined as the High Arctic by Tealight. At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. However, at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are considerably higher this year.

15
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 21, 2019, 12:34:32 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 19 May 2019

16 to 20 May Precipitation outweighs melt on these days, but not by much.
The weekly update of the accumulated SMB anomaly is also attached. +ve  noamlies are alsmost totally confined the the coastal fringe of the SE. The contrast between the dry NW and the wet SE is much higher than average.

Next 5 days Looks like melt to continue at around the same level (warm afternoons, and precipitation to be fairly low and confined to the SE. So perhaps overall SMB gain to be below average, maybe even -ve on one or two days.

During / after next weekend looks like a weather change. Warmth, rain and snow from the south enters Baffin Bay and impacts the west coast of Greenland. It is that balance between rain and snow that will determine the change in SMB? (See also post by Sleepy above)
______________________________________________

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2019, 11:38:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,259,122 km2(May 20, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 269 k > 2016, 116 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 64 k, 8 k more than the average loss of 56 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,012 k, 493 k (20%) greater than the average of 2,519k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 25.5% of the melting season done, with 116 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.90 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.3 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. However, at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

On average, just over 25% of the melting season is done. In a couple of weeks the June Poll?

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 20, 2019, 06:40:55 PM »
Tesla Pivots To Oblivion
May 17, 2019

The author does a great job, imho, compiling so much historically accurate up-to-date and relevant credible information with source references into a single accessible document.
snipped

I dare you to go to https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264912-tesla-pivots-oblivion and post your above comment there.

Then argue your points and defend them with the Author who is still there answering questions and explaining the reality to those, like you, who still cannot grasp the simple facts.

I bloody dare you to log on to that site and actually engage in a dialogue with the Author himself!

You will not do it.
If "bloody dare" doesn't do it try "double-dog dare".

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 20, 2019, 06:36:55 PM »
John Michael Greer's take on renewable energy's inability to save industrial civilization:
https://www.ecosophia.net/a-conversation-with-the-world/
Oh lordy, and he sports one of those Old Testament Prophet beards. My chakras don't approve.

Quote
John Michael Greer - Resilience
https://www.resilience.org/resilience-author/john-michael-greer/
John Michael Greer is a widely read author and blogger whose work focuses on the overlaps between ecology, spirituality, and the future of industrial society. He served twelve years as Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America, and currently heads the Druidical Order of the Golden Dawn
.

What with the weirdo posts on "Re: Places that will remain livable if we get 3C temp rise ?" this here science-based(?) forum is getting a bit odd.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 20, 2019, 02:38:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,466,440 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,466,440    km2      
-369,225    km2   <   2010's average.
-253,202    k   <   2018
-793,550    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -74    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__   -52    k   loss
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Area loss 74 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 62 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (314k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

20
Germans are literally Augustus Gloop personified as a nation. Fat, disgusting, useless.
Obesity in the world - https://obesity.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=006032
2016 Data

Country  Global      % Of Population Obese
              Ranking   
USA          12          36.7%
UK            33          27.8%
Germany   78          22.3%

It is the nations of the South Pacific who are leading the way.
Come on USA - "America First, America First!"   

________________________________________
Another thread that somehow prods unpleasantness to emerge from the woodwork.

21
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 20, 2019, 11:22:43 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 19 May 2019

16 to 19 May Precipitation outweighs melt on these days, but not by much.

Next 5 days Looks like melt to continue at around the same level (warm afternoons, and precipitation to be fairly low and confined to the SE. So perhaps overall SMB gain to be below average, maybe even -ve on one or two days.

During / after next weekend looks like a weather change. Warmth, rain and snow from the south enters Baffin Bay and impacts the west coast of Greenland. It is that balance between rain and snow that will determine the change in SMB? (See also post by Sleepy above)
______________________________________________

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 20, 2019, 09:25:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,323,094 km2(May 19, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 282 k > 2016, 112 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 52 k, 13 k less than the average loss of 65 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,948 k, 485 k (20%) greater than the average of 2,463k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 24.9% of the melting season done, with 117 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.3 to +3.7 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic .

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future.

On average, nearly 25% of the melting season is done.

23
Since, by all means and measures, watching TV is the absolutely least energy-consuming activity in the whole World, it is by far better to have 200 million people watching this shit for three hours, than doing anything else whatsoever. Brain activity is at an absolute minimum, coffee machines and Qookers are stranding idle, lights are down, no one is driving or flying anywhere, no molotov cocktails are thrown, and no wars are started. It is a perfect way to save the sea ice. Pity it only lasts a day or two for most people.
A vision of hell - 24/7 Eurovision.
Nurse, the suicide pill!!

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2019, 03:16:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,540,849 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,540,849    km2      
-352,359    km2   <   2010's average.
-233,535    k   <   2018
-782,239    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -71    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -37    k   loss
Central Seas__   -34    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 71 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 61 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (331k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 19, 2019, 01:59:42 PM »
OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.

18th May:-
In North America both SCE - Snow Cover Extent and SWE - Snow Water Equivalent ( = mass) are just under +1 SD, i.e. a tad above average.
In Eurasia,  both SCE - Snow Cover Extent and SWE - Snow Water Equivalent ( = mass) are above +1 SD, i.e. considerably above average.

It will quickly disappear as is normal.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

26
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 19, 2019, 01:41:02 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 18 May 2019

16 to 18 May Precipitation outweighs melt on these days, but not by much.

Next 5 days Looks like melt to continue at around the same level, and precipitation to be fairly low. So perhaps overall SMB gain to be below average, maybe even -ve on one or two days.

______________________________________________
NOTES
- the DMI and NSIDC models both try to make allowances for melt / rain that refreezes / freezes where it happens, i.e. does not run-off the ice-sheet and reduce mass.
- they are models, but are tested against real observations from weather stations and other field data. Mind you, I believe the NSIDC and DMI models did end up with markedly different results about the amount of above average SMB  in the 2018-19 Greenland year.
- they are the best we have - and even if in error, are consistent over time which gives the direction of travel. Last 2 years - high above average SMB gain - this year, well below average so far.

27
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 19, 2019, 12:22:50 PM »
Quote
Quote from: Juan C. García on Today at 04:09:13 AM
With the pollution in Mexico City and surrounding, I am starting to be sick, so I will go early to bed.
Can someone else post the JAXA data?
Thanks.


https://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-pollution-20190518-story.html
Smog chokes Mexico City as fires fan pollution
Quote
A smoky haze that has blanketed this capital for the past week is fraying nerves, spurring health worries and generating criticism of elected officials.

Authorities ordered Mexico City schools closed Thursday and Friday and urged people to stay indoors, as the photochemical miasma enveloping the metropolitan area, home to more than 20 million, failed to disperse.

Professional soccer games and other outdoor events were canceled as part of an emergency decree imposed on Tuesday, and the city government set driving limits to curb the number of vehicles in circulation. Many pedestrians and cyclists donned surgical masks.

The month of May, before the onset of summer rains, traditionally brings the worst air quality of the year to Mexico City, which lies in a high-altitude valley where vehicular and industrial fumes are trapped. A heat wave and sparse winds have made things worse.

This year, however, authorities say fires raging outside the city have exacerbated the problem as smoke has converged above the city and environs, mixing with a toxic brew of contaminants. Measuring stations have found dangerously high levels of tiny particulates, viewed as especially hazardous because they can damage people’s respiratory and cardiovascular systems.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/may/17/air-pollution-may-be-damaging-every-organ-and-cell-in-the-body-finds-global-review

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2019, 11:33:16 AM »
With the pollution in Mexico City and surrounding, I am starting to be sick, so I will go early to bed.
Can someone else post the JAXA data?
Thanks.

To the hills, Juan, to the hills.

Makes me wonder how many of those who post on this forum have been personally badly affected by climate change and all the other bad stuff we are doing to the environment.

For Juan, environmental degradation is not a paper exercise but an actual threat.

29
I go elsewhere when I need a dose of humiliation

The United Kingdom came in 26th place (last) with only 16 points from 41 International juries and the Public.

I am quite content to blame Jevon's Paradox for this.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2019, 11:17:03 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 18 May 2019 : 20,380,477 km2

Extent gain has been above and below average the last few days, but extent has remained lowest, now for the 39th day this year, 33 days in a row, 664 k below 2018.

- extent gain on this day 129k, 97k more than the the average gain of 32k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 4.13 million km2, 1.67 million km2 (29%) less than the average gain of 5.80 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 64.3% of extent gain done and 170 days to maximum, but before that there is a false maximum and minimum before the (usually) true maximum around the 4th of November.

The Perils of Projections
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 23.61 million km2,  a
 mere 31 k less than the record low maximum in 2016 and lowest in the satellite record.

Being a combination of two separate pieces of data volatility is often very high.

31
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 19, 2019, 10:53:50 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :  9,005,616 km2(May 18, 2019)

Extent gain switched to well above average in the last few days, but 2019 extent stays lowest in the satellite record for the 39th day this year.

- Extent gain on this day 175k, 85 k MORE than the average gain of 90 k on this day.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 280 k less than extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 6.581 million km2, 1.173 million km2 (15%) less than the average of 7.754 million km2 by this day,
- 48.3% of average extent gain done, with 121 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.30 million km2, 0.76 million km2 less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2019, 10:43:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,374,861 km2(May 18, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 271 k > 2016, 146 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 46 k, 12 k less than the average loss of 58 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,896 k, 498 k (21%) greater than the average of 2,397k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 24.3% of the melting season done, with 118 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

On average, nearly 25% of the melting season is done.

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 18, 2019, 11:39:47 PM »
i have not seen etienne accuse degrowth advocates as violent.

sidd
There was I, getting ready to make some Molotov cocktails, and thinks "damn, that means supporting the fossil fuel industry".

It's a tough life being a rebellious environmentalist.

34
AUSTRALIA
The Liberals (right-wing) won the election.
Perhaps Adani (coal)has as well.
LNG has certainly won.

If a place like Australia with all its natural advantages, won't grasp the nettle and move to a carbon-neutral economy, then who will ? The Australian election joins the Brazilian election in probably ensuring that as this century unfolds, a lot extra of the biosphere** is going to end up dead.

Climate emergency, what climate emergency?
___________________________________________________________________________
** The biosphere includes us

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 18, 2019, 09:46:33 PM »
Sam,
Thanks for the statistics tutorial.

Concerning the use of "extent", remote sensing can still not discern the difference between a melt pond and sea water, so even as extent gets progressively more inaccurate, there is not a lot of alternative.  At some point in time, detection of the several centimeters difference in height may become possible...
I thought IceSat2 was getting pretty close to that.

I still say, no matter what measure one uses, the chances of a BOE this year are vanishingly small.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 18, 2019, 08:03:36 PM »
NSIDC Data

A couple of graphs looking at the Arctic Central Seas only, about what melt is required for a BOE of < 1 million km2 extent. The peripheral seas are ignored as they always melt out completely to the extent as makes no difference.

Currently a BOE requires an extent loss from now of circa 7.5 million km2 compared with an average of circa 4.5 million, i.e. circa 65% above average. The most that happened was in 2012, when extent loss from now was circa 20% above average.

So a BOE currently requires a series of circumstances (tipping points?) completely outside and beyond previous experience.

____________________________________________________________
Area data gives similar results. Note that at minimum area is usually about 65% of extent. So a BOE of 1 million km2 extent might be about 0.65 million km2 area.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: May 18, 2019, 05:08:54 PM »
A fella called Tealight, with the help of his Avatar Nico Sun, has done the biz at https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp. It is updated daily and is wunderbar. Note he has analyses for the Arctic in total, individual seas, and "The High Arctic" (=the seven seas of the Arctic Ocean itself)

Using his AWP data combined with lots of other maths re sea ice SST's etc, he has already smashed the opposition on forecasting Antarctic Sea Ice. I am hoping to see if he is going attempt the same for the Arctic.

Examples of graphs and maps attached.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 18, 2019, 03:12:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,611,807 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,611,807    km2      
-343,850    km2   <   2010's average.
-213,374    k   <   2018
-772,164    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -68    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -38    k   loss
Central Seas__   -25    k   loss
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    12    k   gain
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 68 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (340k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

It will be interesting to see if the prognostications of imminent ice armageddon (Slater projections, various posts in the melting thread) translate into HUGE ice loss. Looking at temperature alone suggests more like a bit above average at least for the next week or so.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: May 18, 2019, 12:27:14 PM »
Will the North-West Passage open this year? Early signs suggest  - yes

Baffin Bay , the Canadian Archipelago Area,the Beaufort and the Chukchi seas are all showing above average sea ice loss, and it looks like temperature anomalies will remain mostly above average over the next week to ten days at least.

Also check out Aluminium's latest gif showing the Beaufort disintegrating at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg199798.html#msg199798

But - early days yet.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 18, 2019, 12:01:27 PM »
There is max temperature in the last image.
A quibble...

I think I am right in saying that the GFS maximum (and minimum) temperature images are a bit deceiving, in that even if the forecast is 100% correct, there will not be a date/time when the image is a reality.

For the 5 day image shown, I think the image shows the maximum temperature for each element of the grid over the next 5 days. So one place might be at maximum today, another in 3 days time, and so on.  You can tell this from the image. Alaska cannot be at maximum temperature at the same time as Norway - if Alaska is basking in the late afternoon sun, Norway is freezing in the early early hours before dawn.

Thus the maximum image exaggerates the heat, the minimum image exaggerates the cold.

Mind you, it still looks like the Central Arctic sea ice is on the move and in serious grief..

41
Those warm afternoons in North America.....

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 18, 2019, 09:38:20 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,421,099 km2(May 17, 2019)

- Extent is back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 276 k > 2016, 167 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 67 k, 8 k more than the average loss of 59 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,850 k, 510 k (22%) greater than the average of 2,339k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 23.7% of the melting season done, with 119 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.88 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.0 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train.

On average, less than 25% of the melting season is done.

43
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:58:15 PM »
To add to the general confusion.

Is this El Nino a "Modoki" El Nino or a conventional El Nino. Bangladesh wants to know.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/opinion/op-ed/2019/05/04/further-complicating-matters
Quote
Further complicating matters
Tens of thousands of Rohingya refugees in camps across Bangladesh are at imminent risk of El Niño-related drought this year.

Currently, there is a 60-70% chance of an El Niño developing by summer this year. Initially, it looked like Warm Pool El Niño (or El Niño-Modoki), but it is currently changing to conventional El Niño. This El Niño could have an enormous global impact and may be even more severe than previous occurrences. This can cause lower than normal rainfall, warmer than normal temperatures, higher possibility of drought, and higher than normal cyclonic activities for the next six to eight months in Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar area.

ps: Somewhere I read a suggestion that a Modoki El Nino event is sometimes followed a year or two later by a very strong El Nino ?

pps: "El Niño "Modoki" (Japanese for "a similar but different thing") or a Central Pacific El Niño, wherein enhanced SSTs and rainfall occur near the dateline and not near the coast of Peru." Phys.org

44
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:35:36 PM »
GISS-LOTI came in at +0.99°C for April.  2nd warmest April on record behind of course April 2016. 

Something I continue to highlight is that the drop off after the 2015-2016 super Niño was much less than previous Niño's: 2010, 1998, etc.

The running 12-month mean anomaly is now back up to the linear trend of 0.20°C per decade.  It took post 1998 & 2010 much longer to rebound.
I've been playing with your graph - adding lines. I sure hope the last line added - the short red one, is not the shape of things to come.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:02:06 PM »
The Perils of Projections?

At the moment 2019 NSIDC Sea Ice Area is some 360k, circa one week's melt,  above that of 2016 (currently lowest area). However, that overall position conceals very large differences between various seas .

For example, sea ice area in the Chukchi Sea has been lowest in the satellite record for 58 out of 135 days in 2019 so far. In 2016, sea ice loss was merely average. In contrast, in 2016 ice in the Beaufort Sea, just next door, crashed. 2019 area loss , though above average, is far more modest.

On the Atlantic side, in 2016 the Barents sea ice melted out extremely early. In 2019, although sea ice loss has rapidly increased in the last few days, area is still a bit above the 2010's average.

Such extreme variations year by year, sea by sea, suggests great regional climatic variation within the general framework of AGW of n degrees per decade. So I don't have a clue what will happen in the remaining 75+ % of the 2019 melting season - not in total and not where in the Arctic the above and below average sea ice losses will be.

But, what does that matter? So here's my forecast for the 2019 Jaxa Extent minimum.
4,000,000 km2- not a km2 more, not a km2 less;  on September 13th - not a day before, not a day later.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 17, 2019, 03:56:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,680,060 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,680,060    km2      
-336,508    km2   <   2010's average.
-204,868    k   <   2018
-761,718    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -66    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -36    k   loss
Central Seas__   -21    k   loss
Other Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss

Area loss 66 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (363k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 17, 2019, 11:45:55 AM »

It would be interest to get some kind of sense of how people rank the various variables.

As a newbie, I would guess water temperature is at least up there with atmospheric temperature . Sunlight has been pointed out. The spin which brings ice to Fram seems important. Nares being open with a steady throughput. Wind. The thickness of the ice. The level of surface fracturing.

Thanks for your patience. I'm just trying to get oriented. Asking questions helps.
For discussions on the various parameters that influence sea ice area and extent the 2019 melting season thread (and other threads such as salinity) is where you need to go. There you will find the posts on the weather, the climate, the sea temperatures, the ocean currents etc etc etc. There you will also find the more you know the less you know.

This thread is mostly just about the data itself. I only make a comment on my posts in this thread about where the very short-term direction of travel may be.

Most of us also use the "Stupid Questions" thread from time to time. You will get good answers and links to places within this forum and elsewhere.  It is a big and wide-ranging forum. Good hunting.

48
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 16th May

North America SCE and SWE now both within the +1 SD band again.

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow.

49
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 17, 2019, 10:57:10 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 16 May 2019

16 May Precipitation outweighs melt on this day, but not by much.

Next 10 days Looks like melt to continue at around the same level, and precipitation to be fairly low. So perhaps overall SMB gain to be below average.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 17, 2019, 06:47:14 AM »


At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further.

So..just in the interest of keeping it fresh...what variables are you taking into consideration when you suggest that there is no reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate?

For clarification, I'm grateful for the effort that people like you put into providing the data that you do. Thank you!!

But I'm also coming from a perspective that we're heading for an inevitable BOE / climate apocalypse in coming decades and that most people here are just here to witness that and share the experience.

There's a balance of people who are seeing the potential for short-term demise and those like yourself who are saying...not yet.

Anyway ..I'm curious to know what variables you consider when there are differences of opinion. I sincerely want to learn.
My statement referred to current forecast period of around 10 days simply from looking at fairly low +ve temperature anomalies and current fairly strong extent loss. i think it is far too early to look at the end of season minimum with any confidence at all. Others disagree.

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