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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
We are going to be OK !! (Maybe?)

Climate sensitivity study suggests narrower range of potential outcomes
[/b]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/18/worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-not-credible-says-study

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

“Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate sensitivities,” said lead author Peter Cox, a professor at the University of Exeter.

But then, right at the end -

One wild card not taken into consideration by the new model is the possibility of rapid shifts in climate brought on by the planet itself. “There is indeed evidence that the climate system can undergo abrupt changes or ‘tipping points’,” Cox said.

The collapse of the gulf stream, the thawing of carbon-rich permafrost, or the melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica – any of these could quickly change the equation, and not in the Earth’s favour.

Wild card? - it is global warming that is causing the changes mentioned.


2
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 16, 2018, 09:11:48 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/16/eu-declares-war-on-plastic-waste-2030

EU declaring war on single-use plastics. That’s only good for a small percentage (most oil is for transport, most gas for heating and electricity) but it’s just an added strain on the industry.
The policy against single-use plastic is not really about oil and gas - it is about what happens to it after use - especially in the oceans and into the ocean food chain, so aprt of a general campaign about dumping plastic waste into the environment.

3
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: January 16, 2018, 07:06:57 PM »
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) Warning #16

10 knots stronger (85knots) when it hits La Reunion on Thursday

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 16, 2018, 06:46:57 PM »
equivalent to a 10CM thick wall filled with fiberglass insulation, more or less.
If dry fluffy powder.

The thermal conductivity of snow is highly variable, just one among all the other variables quoted by A-Team. Given the paucity of data (rightly often bemoaned by A-Team) those teams doing the modelling are right on the edge of doability. But more credit to them for giving it a go.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Schumpeterian Creative Destruction
« on: January 16, 2018, 01:46:34 PM »
It's an inter-generational choice as well.
No pain for us.
Very little pain for our kids.
Extreme pain for grandkids and following generations.

Not so creative destruction of future generations.
You are very optimistic.  The current cocktail of climate change, deforestation, desertification of the land and the oceans, and loss of biodiversity (variety of species and population of individual species) means, I think, pain is not that far away.

6
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: January 16, 2018, 10:37:06 AM »
The Indian Ocean around Madagascar is havig its third cyclone in recent weeks. La Reunion is going to get clobbered a bit.

JTWC is moving back to the US navy.

*********The Naval Oceanography Portal is MOVING***********

The Public Facing Naval Oceanographic Portal (NOP-PF) is migrating to a new hosting provider and the URL is changing in the process. Please update your bookmarks to use http://www.metoc.navy.mil as the new URL. This current website will be retired in January 2018. If you have any questions or concerns about this please submit an email to Navy311@navy.mil and in the subject line include "METOC NON-POR: NOP-PF" so that the email is routed to the correct support team.

******************************************************

 

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 16, 2018, 09:37:43 AM »
Tough one this because the increases from today's date to the maximum vary so much. Six of increases over the past 10 years would take the maximum above 13.875, but 8 of the last 15 would see it below 13.750 and that's where the average increase would put it.

Most of the increase from now on will be in the Pacific and the commentary seems to indicate that the Pacific will not be conducive to ice formation this year. 

So I am going with the math and opting for 13.625 to 13.875.
Which was sort of my calculation and then, of course, yesterday up goes extent in one day by 150k km2. Ho hum

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 15, 2018, 10:22:06 PM »
Linked is an animated map showing California offshore monthly average wind speed, with other resources at California Offshore Wind Energy Gateway. (I have no expertise, I just did an internet search.)  I know, this isn't hourly data!
At what height above sea level? e.g. cci-reanalyzer's wind maps are at 10 meters a.s.l. but the new offshore windfarms have blades 100? 200? meters a.s.l., where I believe there is usually more and more regular wind?

9
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: January 15, 2018, 09:30:45 PM »

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Schumpeterian Creative Destruction
« on: January 15, 2018, 09:28:15 PM »
There are recent examples of large-scale destruction of national and regional economies - e.g.s following the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, and the destruction of 80% of the industrial base of former Yugoslavia due to the civil war.

However, you will find it hard to find the story of how the majority of the population suffered and adapted, simply because media reporting was mainly confined to happenings in the capitals.

It is fair to say that if you look beyond the glass palaces in the richer quarter of Moscow, or to the eastern border of Latvia away from the capital Riga you will likely find that for most people, life is still pretty tough and is not better than before the upheavals.

We are not just talking about stranded assets, we are talking about stranded people. The people we choose to govern us haven't even looked at the trailer, and may well have only walk-on parts in the main event.

11
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: January 15, 2018, 08:47:34 PM »
I have asked Neven for a 2018 thread so I can plonk things like this in it. ( I do not have the temerity to open threads without a Governor's OK.)

'Tis the third wind to affect this bit of the Indian Ocean this year.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

12
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 15, 2018, 05:03:09 PM »
The Antarctic animations from HYCOM are worth a look. (Arctic animations are not up to date)

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/antarcictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

The animation is for 30 days to the 12th January and shows well the disintegration of sea ice, and where the remaining thick ice is.


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2018, 01:38:44 PM »
JAXA extent at 14 Jan now 90K km2 greater than 2017. This could easily change over the next week, as the graph indicates. A record low remains on the cards.

14
Developers Corner / Re: Creating Animated GIFs
« on: January 15, 2018, 01:07:20 PM »
combined-stacks

My PC with Windows 10 plays it (.mp4) OK when just clicking the  play button.

Both .mov and .mp4 download OK and clicking on them gets them to play in the windows 10 utility - "films and tv". Also viewable in other programs (see below).

Not a clue as to whether this is any help.


15
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: January 15, 2018, 12:51:54 PM »
My guess is that a dead nuclear reactor is more of a worry than a well-managed live one (which to me  made Germany's decision to shut it's nuclear reactors and burn coal instead a dumb knee -jerk reaction to the Japanese tsunami).

Dead nuclear reactors are forgotten about over time - as is buried nuclear waste. Modern concrete has a life in ideal conditions of 150? years. In a hot, though dead, nuclear power station - how long before structural decay, and for how many thousands of years will these monuments to hubris be a potential danger?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 15, 2018, 12:33:51 PM »
... simply because if history is a guide (haha) a record low is more likely than not.

This. There was like... !Many Tons¡ of more ice just 14000 years ago! Gotta be going down!
Like more recent history, man.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 15, 2018, 12:02:04 PM »
And I've gone down half a step - to 13.625 to 13.875 million, simply because if history is a guide (haha) a record low is more likely than not.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2018, 04:39:57 PM »
What are the boldest predictions for an ice free arctic ? A couple days ice free.
Predictions, in my experience, are a sure path to self-humiliation.

BUT, we can say that since 2012 (the record low year),

- CO2 ppm has gone up by about 13 (= about another 4.5 % above pre-industrial levels), and will continue to significantly for a good few years yet (even in the best-case scenario), which means:-

- the oceans have not only got warmer but will continue to get warmer
(see image below and https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ ),

- Global air temperatures are up significantly and will continue to rise for a good few years yet.

So, over time, there is only one way for sea ice - down. That has to be the long-term trend.

And one year there will be ideal conditions for melt - and that is far as I will go.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2018, 04:14:52 PM »
JAXA having a day off - so here is NSIDC daily data (Arctic, Antarctic, Global) plus extent and area graphs from arctischepinguin.

20
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: January 14, 2018, 02:58:24 PM »
A second day with a little bit of melt on the SE Coast. All due to that whopping cyclone sending warmth into the far North Atlantic. (see Arctic Sea Ice - 2017-18 Freezing Season).

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 13, 2018, 05:19:46 PM »
Cobalt can be mined in many other places.  even a town Cobalt, Ontario
Byproduct of nickel mining. Every day a new scam and faux facts to fleece investors. There is nothing sillier than 'peak cobalt' unless it be 'peak lithium' or 'peak silicon' or 'peak oil'. When 'peak peaks' hits, good time to dump hoarded stockpiles.
Five points to make :-

- Bloomberg promotes the Green Agenda. I doubt they would publish simply to sell snake-oil,
- The data is the data. This is where we are now. We will see if alternative supplies become available and / or the technology and materials used in battery production change over time.
- The Chinese would not be working so hard to secure supplies unless they thought it was in their national interest.
- Nickel mining often has very unpleasant side effects,
- I am a great supporter of EVs. But that should not blind one to the realities of where all the materials that are required to make it happen are sourced.


22
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: January 13, 2018, 03:08:57 PM »
In Israel there was talk for years of sending the brine to the Dead Sea via an artificial canal, helping to stabilize its deteriorating level, and even gaining some net energy via hydro thanks to its being 400m altitude below sea level. But this talk has not come to fruition yet.
OTOH, back to the thread's topic: the minister for agriculture recently arranged a mass prayer at the Western Wall in Jerusalem to break the multi-year drought. I'm not holding my breath for results.
The Dead Sea sinks by about 1 metre per annum - and is now really two seas. The project was supposed to be a joint Jordan / Israel deal, it was a hot topic back in 2004, and even then the idea had been around for decades.

Water scarcity was a real problem back then - Israel had already put a dozer through UN resolutions on water sharing. Things cannot have got better.

It's high up on the US defence department's list of security threats in the region. If drought is defined as demand greater than supply, then the region is always in drought.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 13, 2018, 02:58:19 PM »
Whoops ?     COBALT

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-cobalt-batteries/

When BMW AG revealed it was designing electric versions of its X3 SUV and Mini, the going rate for 21 kilograms of cobalt—the amount of the metal needed to power typical car batteries—was under $600.

Only 16 months later, the price tag is approaching $1,700 and climbing by the day.

For carmakers vying to fill their fleets with electric vehicles, the spike has been a rude awakening as to how much their success is riding on the scarce silvery-blue mineral found predominantly in one of the world’s most corrupt and underdeveloped countries.

Complicating the process is the fact that the cobalt trail inevitably leads to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where corruption is entrenched in everyday business practices. The U.S. last month slapped sanctions on Glencore’s long-time partner in Congo, Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler, saying he used his close ties to Congolese President Joseph Kabila to secure mining deals.

There’s also another ethical obstacle to negotiate. The African nation produces more than 60 percent of the world’s cobalt, a fifth of which is drawn out by artisanal miners who work with their hands — some of whom are children. The country is also planning to double its tax on the metal.




24
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: January 13, 2018, 01:34:46 PM »
There has been precipitation mainly on the SE coast due to that big weather system twixt Greenland and Scandinavia pushing north. Note the tiny bit of melting on the extreme SE coast.

But cci-reanalyzer suggests this precipitation will move further north and fade away over the next few days.

25
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2018, 12:28:52 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 12 JAN 2018.

 

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2018, 12:19:43 PM »
Would anyone be able to estimate the arctic sea ice extent on that graph which would represent an "ice free arctic"?  Looks like the lowest level was around 16, what number would represent a blue ocean event?

Thanks.
A blue ocean event in the Arctic would not be on that graph. It would happen in August/September, not in February, so it would be at a different level of global extent. Take typical Aug/Sep Antarctic extent, add 1mil for the usual Arctic "blue ocean" definition, and you'll get your answer.
For me, looking at global sea ice is really about how much less ocean is covered by ice, with consequences for positive feedback into global warming and other climate changes, and something to stick up the nose of climate change denier trolls.

so here is JAXA DATA as at 12th February. About 33 Days to go =/- 10 days?


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2018, 11:51:06 AM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 12 JAN 2018.   Hoorah..

Extent gain on average is 86% done, there is on average 62 days to go to maximum. Extent is still just lowest in the satellite record, and as commented above, is likely to be second on the 13th for a couple of days, and then possibly to be lowest again.

Historical data still strongly suggests a low or record low maximum. We will see.

28
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: January 12, 2018, 08:33:30 PM »
...

Perhaps we need another thread - Trump Administration assaults on the natural environment ?

Not a bad idea.  But I also feel the fewer Trump threads, the better. ;) :-\

I agree - compromise? Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Envionment ?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:45:50 PM »

Here is Dec 28 - Jan 11 (Fram, Nares (some days are missing due to clouds)). Images: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/morrisjessup.uk.php
Is it possible to slow the damn thing down. My eyes feel like they've been strobed !

30
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:42:23 PM »
I, among many, am very disappointed that the Trump is not coming to Little Old England to open the new US Fort Embassy in London. What, pray, does one do with one's collection of rotten tomatoes and very addled eggs ?

ps:- An article by Megan McArdle at mmcardle3@bloomberg.net, a Republican commentator.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-11/warning-trump-s-babysitters-are-about-to-go-home

“More than half a dozen of the more skilled White House staff are contemplating imminent departures,” says the news site Axios. “Many leaving are quite fearful about the next chapter of the Trump presidency.”

Ominous words, for those who have been counting on what Ross Douthat this week called “Trump’s Petticoat Government” -- the coalition of people who keep Trump from blithely making disastrous snap decisions. ......

Why stay with the administration? At this point, it’s clear to everyone who might become any sort of policy adviser that there is no hope for a grand master plan of anything, no hope of getting any expansive policy agenda to catch Trump’s extremely limited attentional bandwidth. That’s true whether you’re a MAGA America Firster or a conventional Republican......

No one has so far walked out of the Trump West Wing looking better than when they entered.....

The first chapter of the Trump presidency has been … interesting. We’ll have to hope that the next chapter doesn’t find the protagonist left all on his own, embarking upon a series of truly hair-raising adventures.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:19:31 PM »
HELP Ice looks sicker in 2017! What does the colour coding mean?
Nothing was intended other than binning the 256 grayscale colors into 16 arbitrary distinct colors for purposes of possibly illustrating floe motion better. However now I see that it actually is a 'spectral' lookup table and so the colors do correspond to snow/ice surface dielectric ~ ice surface salinity ~ extent of brine exclusion ~ sea ice age ~ sea ice thickness. More or less, the more less the farther down the chain towards thickness.

In other words, the whiter grays tend to be older and thicker and so are shown more as reds and magenta. However to compare volume export, wipneus estimates that on Piomas forum; to compare years for the whole Arctic Ocean in January, SMOS is probably best.

Thanks A-Team. At my age one needs all the reassurance one can get that the brain is still firing on a few neurons.

But it is necessary again to wait until early next month to get a feel for the direction of travel of volume where it matters - in the CAB, even if winter sea ice extent at the margins remains at a record low.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:07:56 PM »
Would anyone be able to estimate the arctic sea ice extent on that graph which would represent an "ice free arctic"?  Looks like the lowest level was around 16, what number would represent a blue ocean event?

Thanks.
Often the Arctic and Antarctic extents work in opposite directions. A period of years in which Arctic Sea Extent is reducing quickly sometimes is when the Antarctic is freezing up. At this moment in time(and last year) the Antarctic extent is dropping rapidly while the Arctic is gaining extent slowly - hence the total extent is dropping like a stone. In two months we will be looking at Arctic melt and Antarctic gain.

BUT - to predict, as I know toooo well, is to invite scorn, hollow laughter and other remarks conducive to total humiliation.

BUT - every year CO2 concentrations increase, more solar radiation is  collected by the oceans.

But when a blue ocean event (in the Arctic)? "je ne sais pais".

33
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: January 12, 2018, 03:51:11 PM »
perhaps i simply lack insight but each of such news triggers the same thought:

a) they have wind to produce energy

b) they have plenty of sunshine to produce energy

c) they have plenty of ocean water to make drinkable by osmosis (energy consuming i know)

so why do such regions like CT or Andalucia or other regions with little water but being oceanside
and blessed with either wind, sun or both produce more drinking water from the ocean by through above mentioned method. it exists, it's done but by far not sufficiently to solve their shortages.

perhaps someone who is more savvy in that field of work/sciences can enlighten me so that i can either push more or forget the idea because of (no clue why)

I believe Spain and other places have expanded desalination plants for mainly for coastal urban regions. But - people still have to eat, and Spain has a huge agricultural export industry.

Agriculture (as a rule of thumb) consumes 4 to 5 times the water used for urban purposes.

Water is heavy - damn heavy - shifting it away from the coast uphill is expensive. In the north of Jordan, a lot of the water comes from the Jordan Valley. The average lift was (in 2004) about 750 metres -  say 2500 feet. As a result electricity for the pumps (though heavily subsidised) comprised more than 50% of operating costs.

In California, even with the most sophisticated irrigation systems (miserly delivered to each plant individually (and often originally developed in Israel)), as the 2012-2016 drought progressed farmers had to abandon crops).

And the last problem is inertia - even in Jordan it was a tough job to get anyone to take water loss reduction seriously (often linked to places with serious water shortages) and to provide the capital to redesign water systems. And getting people to change their crop types? Forget it.

There are places where it works, and places where it will not  or if it does work, at vast energy requirements and cost. To find out if desalination + renewable energy would work requires proper  field work in several disciplines.

However, sometimes progress is made - so do not give up.


ps: Water wars is up there with climate change in the US defence departments's list of security threats (even if Trump and his acolytes pretend it is not there).

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2018, 03:14:50 PM »
Latest  graph from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/.

A little closer every day?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2018, 02:36:42 PM »
On 9th January with over a month to go, global sea ice extent is below many previous year's minima.

First...nice chart!!!  Love the info...

Second....not quite 1.7 mill to go in order to set new record low min.

Just for you, Buddy, updated table as at 11 Jan. 1.4 million for new record low. (See how I respond to being stroked).

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 02:22:54 PM »
Here are Fram and Nares export the last two years, from the mid-September minimum until January 11th. Again, way too large as gifs. To best view, turn controller off, loop to on, hit play.

Below the last frame as at 11 Jan.

HELP ! What does the colour coding mean ? (OK, I am having an off day).

If it means depth of ice then 2018 is looking sicker than 2017.

37
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 11, 2018, 02:20:42 PM »
I disagree with Bruce Steele that climate change had nothing to do with the mudslides in SoCal.

Yes,the geology is set up for landslips.
Yes, urban planning ignores nature.
And yes, a combination of drought with fires followed by a dump of rain was a fatal combination.

But - climate change has lead to a great lengthening of the wildfire season, i.e. the chances of misadventure have increased.

38
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 10, 2018, 10:34:12 PM »
"Move away from the threats, ... grown your own food, ... "
What, and get my nails dirty?   :D

"Voluntary and mandatory evacuations covered the vast majority of the flooded parts of Montecito"
Thanks for this info.
There are 7,000 (?) people in Montecito, mostly very well-off, rich, or humungously rich. Suddenly living the California dream has turned into a nightmare - twice.

Neighbours have lost their lives and mega-dwellings, many have inches or feet of mud and boulders on their manicured lawns (including Oprah). They may have to leave their homes for months or forever.

They have influence in both Democratic and Republican parties. It could make a difference on the environment agenda, or perhaps not.

We will see.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 10, 2018, 07:59:16 PM »
I think it is worth noting that this is the closest global sea ice has been to the previous year since (record lows) since the divergence of 2017 and 2016 in October.

AND will 2018 be the year that global sea ice extent dips below 16 million sq km??
On 9th January with over a month to go, global sea ice extent is below many previous year's minima.

If nothing else, this strongly suggests that the long-term trend is  ↓↓

40
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 10, 2018, 04:43:10 PM »

I've been telling for almost a decade now that what is happening in California looks like a highway to desertification: Burn and flush, burn and flush, ... until all soil is gone and forests can no longer regrow.

But I'm not so sure about this theory. Any observations?

Observations suggest that SoCal especially is a place becoming less liveable and likely to degrade further.

Until recent years impacts of climate change in the so-called developed world have been transitory - large but short-term disruptions to normal life. Places like SoCal with massive and often badly planned urban development and a dodgy climate are therefore likely to be among the first to face more and more frequent disruptions from climate-driven events.

Life isn't fair in that California is in many ways a leader in combating climate change.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 10, 2018, 04:18:43 PM »
The telegraph is quite anti wind, but can anyone verify and clarify this story, which claims that wind farms make more money when turned off ? This sentence makes me suspicious:

"REF research - based on official, publicly available data - shows that wind farms are currently being paid compensation of about £70 per megawatt hour (MWh) to switch off. In comparison they are typically paid £49 per MWh in a consumer subsidy when producing electricity."

But in the second sentence they  dot no say what the wind farms are paid for electricity sales when they are turned on. The sum pf the 49+electricity sales would be the revenue per MWH when they are turned on, as compared to the 70 they are paid in constraint payments.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/08/wind-farms-paid-100m-switch-power/

sidd

The way I read it is that wind farms make more per MWh by curtailing than producing during some low demand hours.

A version of that happens in the US when demand is low and can be satisfied by the large thermal plants (coal  and nuclear) that are running.  Rather than shutting down and spending a lot of time ramping back up the thermals will bid in lower than wind/solar and eat the loss as their selling price will be below cost of production.

If a wind farm has an operating cost of ~1 cent/kWh and receives a 2.3 cent/kWh production tax credit the farm can make money selling at zero cents.  (0c sale price + 2.3c tax credit - 1c  cost = 1.3c profit.)

In order to get the wind farm to curtail the thermal plant will have to bid in enough under 0c to keep the wind farm from making any money.
---

And that is killing thermal plants.  If they operate at a loss during low demand hours then they need to sell at a higher price during high demand hours in order to recoup their loss.

If they go negative at night because of wind they bump up against solar taking away any ability for high profit during sunny hours.  If they hope to jack up the profits during non-windy, non-sunny hours then natural gas whacks them.

This is what happens when you take a natural monopoly and create an artificial market system which creates wild and immediate swings in wholesale electricity prices. Instead of managing power generation to smooth production to match demand, providers play the game of maximising revenue. Switch off your wind turbines and switch on something else when the wholesale price goes through the roof. It is rather like hoarding bread in times of famine and selling it as and when prices sky-rocket. The same is happening with natural gas.

I expect some providers are using similar algorithms as do Hedge Funds to capitalise on short-term variations in demand and supply.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 10, 2018, 03:07:20 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 9 JAN 2018.   At last..

Although extent loss on average is 76% done and on average there are 36 days to go to the minimum on 14th February, over the last 10 years minimum has been reached any time from the 25 th anuary to the 23rd February. Extent is getting closer to the lowest in the satellite record.

Historical data suggests a low or record low minimum, but the table shows the high yearly variation in remaining extent loss and the resulting extent that would cause - anything from 12.8 to 17 million km2.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 10, 2018, 02:31:24 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 9 JAN 2018.   Hoorah..

                        Whoops !
Although extent loss   gain on average is 85% done, there is on average 66 days to go to maximum. Extent is still just lowest in the satellite record.

Historical data suggests a low or record low maximum, but over the last 10 years maximum has been reached any time from the 2nd to 31st March.

cci-reanalyzer forecasts high temp anomalies in the Arctic for the next five days, especially at both ends (Pacific and Atlantic) , weather-forecast.com shows a big push of wind from the South into the far north Atlantic this week and continuing stormy weather in the Bering Sea.  Slow or zero extent gain over the next few days ?

44
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 10, 2018, 01:44:48 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 9 JAN 2018.   Like General MacArthur, it has returned.

Extent loss on average is 80% done. There is a lot of low concentration ice that should disappear but also lumps of thick ice,the biggest in the SW of the Weddell Sea.

Historical data does point to a record low, and last year remaining melt was below average.
But .....there is a but.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: January 09, 2018, 09:49:36 PM »
let's say it's a indeed a fail while there can still be benefits ... i can't see any benefit to ridicule
I'm with you on this one, magnamentis.

I once did a lecture on the value of pure science to a bunch of people who couldn't see further than "return on capital employed". The examples I used were lasers and optical fibre.

For many years the only uses of lasers were to pop a balloon inside another balloon and for Bond movies, and for optical fibre those silly lamps.

Now can we think of modern life without them?

Who knows whether one of the new materials being developed for solar roadways will become a major industry staple?

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 09, 2018, 09:20:01 PM »
10 days of no data is too much!
RASM_ESRL to resume its forecasts on 14 Feb 18. After a 50 day hiatus! No word on whether they will infill missing data days nor if algorithm is changing (and backwards-comparable). Possibly a good window to get in comments, feature requests and bug reports. Email contacts on web page.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/
Life must be very difficult at NOAA at the moment - they still do not know how much they will be clobbered when the 2018 Federal Budget is decided. I understand that at the moment they are on 2017 pro-rata budget levels. Something might be decided at overall level in the next 10 days.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 09, 2018, 08:01:41 PM »
For those with healthy wallets  (but as time goes by cost reductions?):-

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/tesla-powers-up-new-york-gigafactory-solar-roof-assembly-line

Solar shingles will cost more than a conventional roof along with photovoltaic panels -- but not “wickedly so,” said Hugh Bromley, a New York-based Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst. He estimates a Tesla roof would cost about $57,000 for a 2,000-square-foot house, compared to about $41,000 for terracotta tiles along with a 5-kilowatt solar-panel system. A plain-old asphalt roof with panels would run about $22,000, Bromley said.

48
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 09, 2018, 07:29:34 PM »
I think the wording needs changing on options 3 & 4 from

- to rise at steady rate
to
- at existing levels

 Emissions continue to rise at increased rate, airborne fraction increases
 Emissions continue to rise at increased rate, airborne fraction no noticeable change
 Emissions continue to rise at steady rate , airborne fraction increases
 Emissions continue to rise at steady rate , airborne fraction no noticeable change
 Emissions continue but at declining rate, airborne fraction increases
 Emissions continue but at declining rate, airborne fraction no noticeable change

Then one has to decide what one means by emissions- one's directly from human activity only - i.e. excluding livestock, permafrost etc etc etc,
or everything ?

Going to extremes, if the sinks failed entirely, the rise in CO2 could only be a maximum of about 5 ppm per annum from direct human activities on existing levels of emissions.

If there is a real burp in release of carbon from other sources - e.g. Amazon forest fires, Indonesian peat fires, permafrost melt etc etc, the airborne fraction could be effectively negative, and even more likely to be negative if man-made emissions from fossil fuels were substantially reduced.

One can see a nice little doomsday model emerging, and CO2e from methane etc not even included.

ps My vote is for fossil fuel emissions to go down, but airborne fraction to increase substantially (decline in sinks plus release of carbon from other sources), but not Armageddon by 2028 (though closer than comfortable).

ps:- A nice article on how Australia fiddles its emissions data (x-ref to A-Team's comments on the honor system in emissions data).

https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/09/australias-emissions-are-rising-its-time-for-this-government-to-quick-pretending

49
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 09, 2018, 06:29:59 PM »
Herewith an image from NSIDC. Impressive extent and concentration loss. Temperature anomalies over the sea ice have not been much and often negative, so something is happening in the oceans?

Note that obstinate lump of ice in the SW Weddell Sea that Hycom says is thick ice.

50
Yes, Australia does tend to get hot this time of year.  However, except for New South Wales and a few surrounding areas, the temperatures are not all that unusual.


Apparently the criminal causing NSW heat is the SST anomalies twixt Aussieland and Kiwiland

(image from cci-reanalyzer)

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