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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: October 16, 2019, 07:35:56 PM »
The CryoSat-2 image is from the laser thingy?

IceSat-2 is "the laser thingy". CryoSat-2 is the "interferometric radar range-finder thingy":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CryoSat-2

It's a "measurement" of sorts, but still has to make assumptions about snow thickness to turn freeboard measurements into sea ice thickness numbers.
And do we have any idea on the reliability of the assumptions of snow thickness ?

ps: Thingys
I was thinking about how the German Institute in Potsdam recently used IceSat-2 (or was it CryoSat-2) in conjunction with GRACE-FO to improve the quality of ice-mass loss measurement of the AIS and GIS and now have got the Sat-2's totally mixed up.

The technology moves on too fast for my fevered brain to keep up.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 16, 2019, 05:11:20 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):- 4,124,863  km2(October 15, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


NSIDC Area data is still lagging behind NSIDC & JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis again.

On this day,
- Area gain on this day 57k, 46k less than the 10 year average of 103k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 1,215 k, 439 k (26.5%) less than the average gain to date of 1,654 k.
- Area is still 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area  is 189 k more than 2012, 95 k MORE than 2016, and 38k MORE than 2018, though these amount are steadily decreasing,
- 16.6% of the average freezing done, 148 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining AREA gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.45 million km2, lowest in the satellite record (0.18 million km2 less than the current record low in 2015-16).
____________________________________________________________
Outlook ??

If Area gain says well below average then in a week area will be lowest, i.e. all extent and area measures will be at record lows for the day. However, future 2016 gains were also very low, as can be seen from the graphs attached.

All depends on how long slow refreeze is maintained.  __________________________________________________

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2019, 04:25:52 PM »
In the last week or so....
- The Central Arctic Sea (North of 80) is freezing quickly,
- Most other seas are freezing very slowly,

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.

Click gif to start - repeats 4 times

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 16, 2019, 03:29:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,124,863  km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,124,863    km2      
-627,326    km2   <   2010's average.
 38,330    km2   >   2018
-1,589,222    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    57    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    46    k   gain
Other Seas___   -3    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    13    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    29    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    9    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 57 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average of 103 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 627 k, 581 k .

Also area is now 40 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 is still lower than 2019 by 38 k (but by a smaller amount) 95 k, 132k . However,  daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low extent gains for some time to come (see graph)

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 29k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day another 13 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and GFS says over the next 5 days most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual especially on the Pacific side (circa +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly average), apart from a blob of cold over the pole waxing & waning.

And I don't dare mention GFS's temperature anomaly forecast for days 8 to 10

Area gains though increasing still well below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: October 16, 2019, 02:43:04 PM »
It is good to have it on this topic:
The Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring have just published the first CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map of the 2019/20 freezing season:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/#Oct-16

Quote
Note in particular the dark blue area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
The CryoSat-2 image is from the laser thingy, from which estimates of freeboard are generated from which estimates of thickness are made, i.e. starting with a physical measure of the ice, not from a model ?

If so, do we have any info if the Polar Science Center are doing comparisons of their model data with CyoSat-2 data? After all, they can find day, time of day and physical location from both datasets to look for close matches ?

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 16, 2019, 10:17:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,034,952 km2(October 15, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 92k, 44k less than the average gain of 136 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,071 k, 808 k (43.0%) less than the average gain to date of 1,878 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (52 days his year),
- Extent is 683 k less than 2018,
- 19.1% of the season done, 148 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.00 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.88 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from a blob of cold over the pole growing somewhat. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average. After 5 days GFS says - wow.

Extent gains up but still well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by more than 220k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection       5,389,974   

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:26:30 PM »

From 2016 through 2019, Argentina’s government awarded contracts for 6.5 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity, helping make wind and solar the country’s cheapest unsubsidized sources of energy. Roughly 5 GW of this capacity is already either in operation or under construction, attracting nearly $7.5 billion in new investment and creating more than 11,000 new jobs.

How is it "unsubsidized" when the government is footing the bill?
Terry

Because the income from selling the juice to Joe Public should recoup the capital cost exactly as a private sector mob invest capital to generate revenue. The proof (or not) will be in the pudding a few years down the line.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: October 15, 2019, 09:04:50 PM »
Things have changed.

The difference in JAXA Extent 2019 from 2018 reduced from 545k on the 14 September to just 243k on 2nd October. This pushed the date of a straight line projection of a new 365 day average record low from early January 2020 to early May 2020.

But since that date the very low extent 2019 extent gains has increased the difference with 2018 to 597k by the 14th October. So the date of a new record low is back to early January.

There is 136 k to go to a new record 365 day low, (9,683,735 km2), with the daily change on 14th October at 1,589 k.

Outlook- from this date 2018 daily gain was fairly high to very high in the next month.
IFF (if & only if) 2019 extent gains are generally at or below average, we could see a record 365 day average low late in this year.

Data table & graphs attached
_________________________________________
ps: If what is happening with extent this month had happened last month - there would have been many headlines

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 15, 2019, 07:57:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,068,078  km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,068,078    km2      
-580,964    km2   <   2010's average.
 105,178    km2   >   2018
-1,549,409    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    65    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    52    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    15    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    39    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 65k, 31 k less than the 2010's average of 96 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 581 k.

Also area is now 36 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 is still lower than 2019 by 106 k (but by a smaller amount) 132k . However,  daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 39k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day another 15 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and GFS says over the next 5 days most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual especially on the Pacific side (circa +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly average), apart from a blob of cold over the pole waxing & waning.

And I don't dare mention GFS's temperature anomaly forecast for day 10

Area gains though increasing still well below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 15, 2019, 04:08:13 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,942,783 km2(October 14, 2019)i

- Extent gain on this day 62k, 60k less than the average gain of 122k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 979 k, 764 k (43.9%) less than the average gain to date of 1,743 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (51 days his year),
- Extent is 159 k less than 2012, 597 k less than 2016, 394 k less than 2007, and 580 k less than 2018,
- 17.7% of the season done, 149 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.04 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.84 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average.

Extent gains well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by more than 200k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection      5,413,747 

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 09:40:33 PM »
I've been doing some stuff on extent, area and volume on the "When will the Arctic Go Ice-Free" thread. Latest effort at....

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg233093.html#msg233093

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 14, 2019, 09:21:59 PM »
One thing is for sure - the linear trends of PIOMAS volume & NSIDC Area can't go on for many more years.

If they did continue, average September thickness in the year 2030 would be 25 centimetres.

See attached
________________________

In my work on deviations from the average, I came up with the following.

The climate / ice system is complex, but all the processes depend on well-known basic physics. It is the interaction that creates the complexity. And physics imposes limits. E.g. If carbon sinks completely failed, i.e. all CO2 emissions stayed in the atmosphere, the current rate of emissions would produce a maximum annual increase in CO2 ppm of around 5 ppm.

So the deviations from the average trend in a year of extent, area and volume are also limited by the current limits to variations in climate and all the other variables affecting ice loss and gain.

So my speculation that belongs to me is that the maximum variations - both more & less - in the last 40 years are a good guide to the absolute minimum and maximum September minimum possible in the next year.

For Extent that suggests the following ranges....
- a 2020 NSIDC September Average Extent minimum of around 4.3 million km2 +20%/-30%,
- a 2020 PIOMAS  September Average Volume  minimum of around 4.0 thousand KM3 +25%/-40% million WHOOPS.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: October 14, 2019, 06:36:25 PM »
Jim...

The small print says copyright on anything sent to WUWT belongs to them.

So I drag through a load of data, do my analysis, include it in my post & it belongs to that bunch of..... Then they can change it, twist it, whatever they want? And they can prevent me from posting the correct data & analysis - anywhere, including the ASIF?

No way. People should be warned to check the copyright policies of blogs, especially those that are anathema to people considering posting contradiction & counter arguments.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 05:55:13 PM »
I'm not sure if volume is actually lowest.. that graph is missing 2012.
The DMI Thickness Volume model has its supporters & those who believe it has major flaws.

Hence the Volume thread (PIOMAS) only considers volume as measured by the Polar Science Center. I believe they do a lot of data checking before publishing.

Thanks to Wipneus, we get the data twice a month though they only publish once a month.

Volume at minimum ? - maybe yes, maybe no. I wait for Wipneus - with luck by Oct 20 for up to Oct 15.

ps: Volume data does not belong on this thread

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 14, 2019, 04:17:26 PM »

I know - just emphasises the difficulty for the definition of "open".  Presumably it could be:


 Navigable with icebreaker escort
 Navigable by ice-class vessel
 Navigable by ordinary commercial vessel
 Navigable by private vessels e.g. sailing boats

I think most of the tracking programmes need subscriptions to view historical data, but can identify individual ships (assuming they havent gone dar b turning off AIS!
Some of us still believe that NSIDC's 15% rule  for sea ice extent came from the old days when a sensible Mariner would not enter an icy sea if he estimated ice at more than 15% (especially if under sail). So I would plump for when the NSIDC extent image shows no open water then it is shut for ordinary vessels.

Mind you, there will be plenty of adventurers convinced that modern technology will get them through which will keep the Russian Air-Sea Rescue Service busy.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 04:04:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,002,982 km2

A bit more


Area continues to gain faster than extent. On this day NSIDC extent is more than 300k less than 2018, while NSIDC area is more than 100K greater than 2018.

The result is that Arctic sea ice dispersion decreases, while compaction is greater. The first 2 graphs (plus the arctic area graph in the above post) illustrate this .

The Central Arctic Sea (defined by NSIDC as basically the Arctic North of 80) in 2019 has also bucked the trend to a strong late summer melt. Not only that, but area  is increasing quickly again from an above average minimum followed by a hiatus. A very solid lump by maximum?


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:42:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,002,982 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,002,982    km2      
-549,695    km2   <   2010's average.
 131,535    km2   >   2018
-1,518,878    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    70    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    54    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    17    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    39    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 70k, 25 k less than the 2010's average of 95 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 550 k.

Also area is now 51 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 is still lower than 2019 by 132k . However, after this day, daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 37k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day 17 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly average), apart from a blob of cold over the pole.

Area gains though increasing still well below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 02:18:24 PM »
JAXA Glhttps://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/Themes/smf-curve1/images/bbc/img.gifobal Sea Ice Extent as at 13 October 2019 :    23,017,011 km2

Antarctic Sea Ice has stalled in the last 3 days. But well below average Arctic Sea Ice extent gain results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record. That's lowest for 140 days this year.

- extent gain in the last 4 days 225k, 20k less than the average gain of 245 k.
- extent 228 k below 2018, 158 k below 2016, 514 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.77 million km2, 0.93 million km2 (12.1%) less than the average gain of 7.70 million km2 by this day,
-on average 85.4% of extent gain done and 22 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.34 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.70 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 4 weeks to maximum.

In any event, it is likely that 2019 data will continue to draw the line on the unused part of the graph paper for a few days more. (another hostage to fortune)
_____________________________________________________________

19
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 14, 2019, 01:56:24 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,136,162 km2(October 13, 2019)

Extent loss has stalled in the last three days - to the extent of a net increase in extent

- 2019 is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, but 13th since 1987
- Extent is below the 1980's average by a mere 32k, and oly 84 k below the 990's average
- Extent increase in the last 3 days 12 k, compared with average extent loss (last 10 years) of 132 k in these 3 days,
- Extent loss to date 0.21 million km2, 0.32 million (60%) less than the 10 year average of 0.53 million km2 by this day.
- 3.3% of the season done, with on average 130 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.61 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.

i.e. the Antarctic melting season has not got going. What a contrast with the Arctic
__________________________________________

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 12:52:25 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,880,849 km2(October 13, 2019)i

Extent gain on these last 3 days well below average
The headline is lowest in the Satellite record
Perhaps more significant is how slow the refreeze has been.


- Extent gain in the last 3 days 183k, 118k less than the average gain of 301k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 917 k, 704 k (43.4%) less than the average gain to date of 1,621 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (50 days his year),
- Extent is 31 k less than 2012, 556 k less than 2016, 336 k less than 2007, and 480 k less than 2018,
- 16.4% of the season done (.e. 1/6th), 150 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.10 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.78 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average.

Extent gains well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 180k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection     5,448,791

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: October 13, 2019, 11:51:27 PM »
Matt Ridley still hasn't had the decency to apologise to Tamsin. Nor has Paul Matthews, or David Rose.

Meanwhile Eric Worrall has asked me to contribute a "guest post" to WUWT. (ROFL)^n!
Expecting decency? C'mon, man.

To give copyright to WUWT. Oh dear! no, no no, no no no, no no no no.

Meanwhile - polar bears population (from the tweet)- the claim about numbers is from a book sponsored by - wait for it - GWPF (sorry Neven). The only use this idiot stuff they post is - is that it motivates me to find out some real data.

From WWF
Quote
Before 1973
Several polar bear populations were decimated by unsustainable hunting by European, Russian and American hunters and trappers from the 1600s right through to the mid-1970's.

1973
Canada, the United States, Denmark, Norway and the former USSR signed the International Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears and their Habitat, strictly regulating commercial hunting. The US Government classified the Polar Bear under its Endangered Species Act (ESA).

2005
The polar bear was upgraded from Least Concern to Vulnerable by the the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group.

2013
Ministers and other leaders from the five polar bear range states met in Moscow for the first International Forum on Polar Bear Conservation. The leaders made significant commitments to address issues of polar bear habitat, research and trade. This event was supported by WWF.

Today (2017)
Today, polar bears are among the few large carnivores that are still found in roughly their original habitat and range--and in some places, in roughly their natural numbers.

Although most of the world's 19 populations have returned to healthy numbers, there are differences between them. Some are stable, some seem to be increasing, and some are decreasing due to various pressures.

In the future
By 2040, scientists predict that only a fringe of ice will remain in Northeast Canada and Northern Greenland when all other large areas of summer ice are gone. This "Last Ice Area" is likely to become important for polar bears and other life that depends on ice.

A projection of sea ice in the archipelago, supported by WWF, shows that much of the region is facing significant ice loss in the coming decades - with potentially serious consequences for polar bears.

Global polar bear numbers are projected to decline by 30% by 2050.

but... https://www.totallyveganbuzz.com/news/over-5000-polar-bears-have-been-killed-for-sport/ TRUE?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 11:14:17 PM »
Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (9.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
9.3% should read 39.3% perhaps ?
Many thanks for the regular updates too!
Thanks, Charles.

& here is a thought. If at maximum gain is less than average by 9.3% - we will be stunned.

23
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 13, 2019, 10:41:24 PM »
I thought that while evidence for increased frequency of hurricanes might be questionable, there was more confidence in the trend of hurricanes to increased intensity, and even worse, slower moving hurricanes, e.g Harvey, Dorian.

I guess the Bahamas thinks one is more than enough for a very long time.   

24
USA October Snow Storm
A warm September meant that trees were still at least partly in leaf + high winds over soggy ground, and wild-life & cattle were late in growing their winter coats.. Crops were about to be harvested.


And afterwards ... so early in the year temperature rebound very possible, fast thaw, flooding.

So the snowstorm impact was more because it was early after a very warm September. It will be not so easy to find out later how much damage has been done.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6026144/winnipeggers-cleanup-october-snowstorm/
Quote
Winnipeg
Arborist Mark Vickers says Thomas isn’t alone. He received hundreds of calls from Winnipeggers with fallen branches covering their front lawns. “I’ve never seen it this bad,” Vickers says, looking out towards the street.

Mayor Brian Bowman said the tree canopy has been severely damaged

So many tree limbs down from on our street. It’s sad to see the trees damaged like this. #winnipegweather #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/ykKDzKSQh0 — Heather Hinam (@SecondNatureMB) October 11, 2019

http://www.startribune.com/blizzard-warning-posted-in-north-dakota-amid-fall-snowstorm/562808382/
NORTH DAKOTA
Quote
BISMARCK, N.D. — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum on Friday activated the state's emergency plan due to what he called a crippling snowstorm that closed major highways and had farmers and ranchers bracing for huge crop and livestock losses.

The north-central and northeastern part of the state was taking the brunt of the storm but Bismarck, in the central North Dakota, had nearly a foot of snow by Friday.

"I'm expecting massive crop losses — as devastating as we've even seen," said Jon Nelson, a state lawmaker who farms several hundred acres near Rugby in north-central North Dakota.

Unharvested wheat in the region probably will be a total loss, he said.

"A lot of the standing stuff is flattened to the ground," Nelson said. "It's shot and some guys are putting their combines away and won't bring them out again."

Erika Kenner, who ranches with her parents in Leeds, North Dakota, said she felt helpless Friday as she was unable to check on the family's herd of several hundred cows due to deep, drifting snow.

"I just hear the wind howling and think of those poor cows out there," she said. "Cattle are tough but this kind of weather just wears on them."

25
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 13, 2019, 09:36:58 PM »
(The first, uncrewed Starships may well remain on Mars, providing a source of supplies for the following crewed missions.)
The first, crewed Starships may well remain on Mars as may well the humans on board - involuntarily.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 13, 2019, 09:19:37 PM »
I would have thought the open / closed / in transit status of shipping (e.g. hydrocarbon exports ) would give a good clue...

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-162.8/centery:68.5/zoom:2

as an example
Not any more. The ships have changed & are changing...

There is already a fleet of LNG tankers with considerable ice-breaking capability and it is growing.

Putin has the dream of year-round shipping and his ice-breaker fleet is being refurbished with new monsters on the drawing board & under construction to keep the route open & escort shipping.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 13, 2019, 08:44:10 PM »
By the way, I still think that endless discussions on what charts that use extent & area are best to predict an ice-free Arctic are a waste of time because:-
- CO2 ppm is increasing at an accelerating rate (looks like will at 3 ppm per year this year)
- There is evidence that the Carbon Sinks are not doing so well, (recent post by AbruptSLR re the Southern Ocean & some work I did on carbon sinks c.f. emissions and CO" increases),
- Global Surface ar temps at record levels in an ENSO neutral year plus scary WMO report on recent trends.

BUT - I read the NSIDC talking about a hiatus in extent loss & I think it is WRONG.. Even though they emphasise caveats & the need to look at longer-term trends, it is God's gift to the denier industry.

So here is a 2nd post about it.
____________________________________________

By why stop with your so-called exaggerated years in one direction only?  If your are going to selectively discard data points, why not toss out the high years of 2000 and 2006 also?

Indeed, why not? So I googled to refresh my hazy memory of a Uni course on Mathematical Statistics to fin the standard methodology for identification of outliers. (That course was so long ago for analysis we did it by hand on mechanical machine Babbage would have recognised.)

It got wider - seems to be a big thing in machine learning (AI ?):-

https://machinelearningmastery.com/how-to-use-statistics-to-identify-outliers-in-data/
Machine Learning Mastery
How to Use Statistics to Identify Outliers in Data

Sometimes a dataset can contain extreme values that are outside the range of what is expected and unlike the other data. These are called outliers and often machine learning modeling and model skill in general can be improved by understanding and even removing these outlier values.

- An outlier is an unlikely observation in a dataset and may have one of many causes.
-Standard deviation can be used to identify outliers in Gaussian or Gaussian-like data.
- The interquartile range can be used to identify outliers in data regardless of the distribution.

I followed the recognised  interquartile range method using absolute deviations from the "expected" value from the linear regression used by NSIDC & me in these graphs

For NSIDC Extent it told me to dump an extra year, the very high extent value in 1996.

I did they same analysis or PIOMAS September volume, and it told me to dump 3 years, all very low values, 1981, 1982, and 2012.

The answers re all the same -
- there is barely any change from the linear regression with or without the "outlier years",
- there is no "hiatus" in the steady loss of Arctic Sea Ice extent as implied on the 3rd October  NSIDC analysis (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Quote
Within the overall decline, it is notable that the most recent 13 years, from 2007 to 2019, have shown very little decline (Figure 3b). Both 2007 and 2012 were extreme low extent years, and variability has been high in this period. However, an earlier 13 year period, 1999 to 2012, shows a rate of decline that is more than double the overall rate in the satellite record. This illustrates the challenge of extracting a quantitative rate of decline in a highly variable system like sea ice, and the benefits of looking at decadal, and not year-to-year variations.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 05:05:19 PM »
The JAXA webste is back on line, but no updates, and by the images being sent from Japan, maybe for some time. Hagibis certainly walloped 'em. So here is a substitute again........

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-    NSIDC – TOTAL Arctic Sea Ice EXTENT March Maximum – in km2 million  4,992,633

Analysis as for JAXA data


On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 40k, 61k less than the 10 year average of 101 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (39.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 204 k more than 2012,
- 13.7% of the season done, 151 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.69 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.55 million km2 compared with 2017 (14.24 million km2).
____________________________________________________________

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 04:29:18 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,933,237 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,933,237    km2      
-524,798    km2   <   2010's average.
 139,516    km2   >   2018
-1,496,203    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    57    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    42    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    14    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    27    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 57k, 34 k less than the 2010's average of 91 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area continues to get less than the 2010's average, now by 525 k.

Also area is now 51 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 has still retreated by a smidgeon more at 140k less than 2019. However, after this day, daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

The increase in daily gain is mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 27k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day 14 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly but reducing to around 2.5), apart from a blob of cold over the pole expanding somewhat.

Area gains though increasing still far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2019, 06:59:08 PM »
With JAXA out of action, here is a substitute........

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-   4,952,891  km2(October 11, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 23k, 73k less than the 10 year average of 96k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 800k, 482 k (37.6%) less than the average gain to date of 1,282 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 269 k more than 2012,
- 12.7% of the season done, 152 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.75 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.49 million km2 compared with 2017 (14.24 million km2).
____________________________________________________________

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2019, 05:58:55 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,876,057 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,876,057    km2      
-490,947    km2   <   2010's average.
 137,031    km2   >   2018
-1,465,061    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    42    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__    40    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    13    k   gain
Central Arctic_    15    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 42k, 42 k less than the 2010's average of 84 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area continues to get less than the 2010's average, now by 491 k.

Also area is now 51 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 has still retreated even more, now 137k less than 2019. However, after this day, daily 2018 area gain starts to increase rapidly.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what seems like ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly but reducing to around 2.5), apart from a blob of cold over the pole expanding somewhat.

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 01:17:15 AM »
P.D. Of course, following the events on the ASIF, I am on the "wait & see". But I am becoming more an activist also.
Go for it, Juan!

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 12:48:45 AM »
NSIDC appear to be a bit supportive of a "hiatus" in Arctic Sea Ice Loss.

Who am I, a mere observer to disagree - but I do...

Evidence 1
Let us assume that 2007 & 2012 are outliers - i.e. caused by a combination of climatic occurrences that converged to produce the maximum possible ice loss at that time. If so, it is legitimate to exclude those years from the data.

The result  (see graph attached, that has both sets of data, i.e. with & without 2012 and 2007),
- a far more orderly progression in a downwards direction.
- no real sign of a hiatus
- a slightly better linear trend R2 value.,
- average annual loss reduced by 5k (82 to 77k)

Note well:- all I did was tell the spreadsheet to make the graphs & add the trend lines. No manipulation by yours truly
However, evidence 1 smells to cherry-picking (apologies). I prefer to think on physical factors that are slowing down the decrease of minimum September, such as more difficulty of ocean and atmospheric heat to really affect the CAB for different reasons (bathymetry; snow cover; melting momentum starting well entered the season; thicker ice laying there).

I thought hard before excluding 2007 & 2012 from the data. Nevertheless, I think it is more valid to look at trends in ordinary years - i.e. excluding exaggerated effects. That is my defence - but all we have to do is wait & see (just a few years).
__________________________________________________
EDIT: In early November I will give my open water graphs an airing. They will include the Aug-Sept-Oct averages to give a better view

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 11, 2019, 08:56:56 PM »
NSIDC appear to be a bit supportive of a "hiatus" in Arctic Sea Ice Loss.

Here is their spiel about it from Oct 3  https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (Graph also attached)

Quote
Within the overall decline, it is notable that the most recent 13 years, from 2007 to 2019, have shown very little decline (Figure 3b). Both 2007 and 2012 were extreme low extent years, and variability has been high in this period. However, an earlier 13 year period, 1999 to 2012, shows a rate of decline that is more than double the overall rate in the satellite record. This illustrates the challenge of extracting a quantitative rate of decline in a highly variable system like sea ice, and the benefits of looking at decadal, and not year-to-year variations. Our updates to our public analysis tool, Charctic now allows the user to see the decadal average trends as well as each year (Figure 3c).

Who am I, a mere observer to disagree - but I do...

Evidence 1
Let us assume that 2007 & 2012 are outliers - i.e. caused by a combination of climatic occurrences that converged to produce the maximum possible ice loss at that time. If so, it is legitimate to exclude those years from the data.

The result  (see graph attached, that has both sets of data, i.e. with & without 2012 and 2007),
- a far more orderly progression in a downwards direction.
- no real sign of a hiatus
- a slightly better linear trend R2 value.,
- average annual loss reduced by 5k (82 to 77k)

Note well:- all I did was tell the spreadsheet to make the graphs & add the trend lines. No manipulation by yours truly

Evidence 2
All the data now indicates that the October Average is likely to be a record low, even if area and extent gain revert back to average levels.

Evidence 3
There is likely to be a new record low 365 day average in early to middle 2020

So my statement that belongs to me is that 2007 and 2012 distort the trends to the extent that they create the illusion of a hiatus where none exists..



35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2019, 08:00:56 PM »
And to finish.....

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-  4,929,899 km2(October 10, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


EXTENT data shows a picture in between NSIDC Area & JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis.

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 32k, 52k less than the 10 year average of 84k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 777k, 409 k (34.5%) less than the average gain to date of 1,186 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 362 k more than 2012,
- 11.7% of the season done, 150 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.83 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.42 million km2 compared with 2017.
____________________________________________________________
Differences with JAXA extent ??

NSIDC Extent gain a bit less below average (-35%) than is JAXA extent gain (-44%).
Current projected maximum extent is a record low by 0.4 million km2 in contrast with JAXA extent current projections suggesting a maximum of nearly 0.7 mllion km2 below the current record low maximum..

All depends on how long slow refreeze is maintained. Quite possible that area and extent gain will play catch-up later this month and next. __________________________________________________

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2019, 05:23:11 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):-    3,833,674 km2(October 10, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


Area data shows quite a different picture from JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis again.

On this day,
- Area gain on this day 40k, 35k less than the 10 year average of 75k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 924 k, 259 k (21.9%) less than the average gain to date of 1,183 k.
- Area is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area  is 319 k more than 2012, 119 k MORE than 2016, and 115k MORE than 2018***.
- 11.9% of the season done, 153 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining AREA gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.63 million km2, equal lowest in the satellite record with 2016.
____________________________________________________________
Differences with JAXA extent ??

Area gain less below average (-22%) than is extent gain (-44%).
Current projected maximum area is close to a record low in contrast with JAXA extent current projections suggesting a maximum of nearly 0.7 mllion km2 below the current record low maximum..

All depends on how long slow refreeze is maintained. Quite possible that area and extent gain will play catch-up later this month and next. __________________________________________________

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2019, 03:38:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,833,674 km2

Two seas I am keeping an eye on as they could change the outlook for 2020 "Pacification".
& one because it is still receiving all that calving & melt from Greenland (both West & East Greenland - south-bound East Greenland strong surface current curves round the southern tip of Greenland & becomes the weak north-bound West Greenland current)

Chukchi & Bering How long will SSTs resist re-freeze?  When will the Bering put the plug in the Bering Strait?
Note the striking rebound in 2012

Baffin Still +ve SSTs.  A slow re-freeze changes the outlook next year for the entrance to the CAA opening up?

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2019, 03:16:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,833,674 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,833,674    km2      
-448,872    km2   <   2010's average.
 115,126    km2   >   2018
-1,417,927    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    40    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -2    k   loss
Central Seas__    39    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__    11    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 40k, 40 k less than the 2010's average of 80 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area continues to get less than the 2010's average, now by 449k.

Also area is now 18 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 has still retreated even more, now 115k less than 2019. However, after this day, 2018 area starts to increase strongly.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what seems like ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole.

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________

39
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: October 11, 2019, 02:04:39 PM »
Latest ENSO discussion from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Record & near record Global Temps in an ENSO neutral year.
What will happen when the next strong El Nino arrives?
Until then, how much more heat are the oceans going to gobble up?


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 October 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~85% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance).

Near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were evident in the east-central Pacific Ocean during most of September, though SST anomalies increased during the past couple of weeks [Fig. 1]. In the last week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +1.0°C and +0.5°C, respectively, and the indices in the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions remained near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased during the month [Fig. 3] partially because a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave expanded eastward [Fig. 4]. This wave was triggered by low-level westerly wind anomalies across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. At upper-levels, easterly wind anomalies prevailed over much of the Pacific during September. Also, the region of suppressed convection over Indonesia intensified and expanded to the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Despite the recent warming, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during the next month or so before decreasing, but remaining above zero. Consequently, forecasters believe the recent oceanic warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. However, chances for El Niño remain between approximately 25-30% through the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~85% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 November 2019.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2019, 01:04:11 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,698,292 km2(October 10, 2019)

Extent gain on this day still below average (but not by as much)

- Extent gain on this day 60k, 40k less than the average gain of 100k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 734 k, 586 k (44.4%) less than the average gain to date of 1,320 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is down to 182 k more than 2012, 551k less than 2016, 415 k less than 2007, and 347k less than 2018,
- 13.4% of the season done, 153 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.22 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.66 million km2. It is really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall  weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole.

Extent gains far below average  - how long can this last?
If it does  - 2019 lowest in circa 3-5 days?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by over 100k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection    5,525,165 

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 10, 2019, 08:00:53 PM »
It is almost as if despite claiming that everything is going to run on solar and wind and unicorn farts, Tesla has instead installed chargers that run on...fossil fuels. How evil they must be! Are they confused into thinking that fossil fuel power generation works better?!?

gsy is just not doing as well as usual. California has a goal of 100% renewables, and they have got quite a way along the path - but still a long way to go. The current problem is that not many people (in the USA)  thought the utility company supplying the electricity has such a crap transmission & distribution system that they are likely to burn the place down. In the UK they don't call electricians "Sparky" for nothing.

I worked in Liberia for a time over 30 years ago (US built infrastructure) - when it rained the sound & sight of pot transformers clinging to a pole in a forest of wires exploding when it rained provided our cabaret as we sat at the outside bar looking over the main drag. We non-Americans never understood why they used that rubbish.

So let's hope Tesla's local supercharger networks don't spit sparks all over the place. There's a lot of KvAs in those little beasties.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 06:25:58 PM »
It's going to be interesting to see the effect that the open water is going to have on the weather in the North over the next few weeks/months.

For the first time in a number of years, we're seeing a 'normal' start to our cold season where I live.   Although it's still disgustingly more humid than it used to be.   A wet cold is nastier than a dry cold.  :(
disgustingly more humid than it used to be = a consequence of global heating, so the models say. The Ice Desert climate turns into a maritime climate as open water replaces ice.

Qu: Have you checked the temp against previous years ? Cold & clammy feels much colder than very cold but dry?

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 03:25:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,793,481 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,793,481    km2      
-409,551    km2   <   2010's average.
 68,589    km2   >   2018
-1,374,958    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    18    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -6    k   loss
Central Seas__    21    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 18k, 60 k less than the 2010's average of 78 k.
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Comments
Note how 2019 Area has now retreated by 410k from the 2010's average which it equaled on 23 September, but 2018 has still retreated even more, now 68k less than 2019. However, after the 10th October, 2018 area starts to increase strongly.


Also area is now only 24k more than 2007.

The plume of warm air from the North Atlantic that headed for the Barents is now closing up. It penetrated the Barents, Greenland and Central Arctic Seas for a few days.
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Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
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44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 01:19:45 PM »
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?

Lovely figure gerontocrat
You can see it every day gradually morphing on the Sea Ice Extent & Area Data thread.

45
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 9 October 2019

Accumulated Data 1 Sept to 9 October

Melt Very little and from now of zero consequence until next April

but

PRECIPITATION up & down like a yo-yo and slightly above average

gives

SMB slightly above average
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Quotes from DMI
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point.
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[/quote]
[/quote]

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 12:14:12 PM »
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 11:46:23 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 8 October 2019 :   22,792,219  km2

An Antarctic Sea Ice loss above average and an Arctic Sea Ice extent loss results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record by a greater amount. That's lowest for 136 days this year.

- extent loss 47k, 118k less than the average GAIN of 71 k.
- extent 74 k below 2018, 229k below 2016, 439 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.54 million km2, 0.91 million km2 (12.2%) less than the average gain of 7.46 million km2 by this day,
-on average 82.6% of extent gain done and 26 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.36 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.72 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 4 weeks to maximum.

In any event, it is likely that 2019 data will continue to draw the line on the unused part of the graph paper for a week or two longer. (another hostage to fortune)
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48
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 10, 2019, 11:20:53 AM »
The University of Bremen image shows a lot of 50% sea ice. I think the extent data disguises the degree of meting to date.

49
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 10, 2019, 11:13:53 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,153,837 km2(October 9, 2019)

For a changeextent loss greater than average on this day

- 2019 is still 5th lowest in the satellite record since 2002,
- Extent is above 2018, 2017, 2016, & 2008,
- Extent decrease on this day 35 k, 10 k less than the average extent loss (last 10 years) of 25 k on this day,
- Extent loss to date 0.19 million km2, 0.19 million (50%) less than the 10 year average of 0.38 million km2 by this day.
- 2.4% of the season done, with on average 134 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.
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50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 10:58:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,638,382 km2(October 9, 2019)

Extent loss on this day, extent gain stalled on the previous day, continuing this slow re-freeze that if maintained will be for the record books.
Caveat- By this date, 2018 refreeze was even slower- but finished the freezing season with slightly above average total gain.


- Extent LOSS on this day 13k, 109k less than the average gain of 96k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 674 k, 546 k (44.7%) less than the average gain to date of 1,220 k.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 232 k more than 2012, 592k less than 2016, 421 k less than 2007, and 329k less than 2018,
- 12.4% of the season done, 154 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.26 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.62 million km2. It is really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
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Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall  weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Extent gains far below average and on this day -ve - how long can this last?
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ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection   5,553,512

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