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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:12:18 PM »
I had a look to see what NOAA had to say about ocean heat. Attached.

2
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:03:24 PM »

Methane Calthrates at the bottom of the ocean should remain stable due to the sheer pressure and the difficulty of warming the bottom depths. It is an overblown concern that has been studied and largely disproven.

studied and largely disproven.

At the bottom of the ocean - yes, most methane degraded on the way to the surface
In shallow seas with slow methane escape. Yes, most methane degraded on the way to the surface.

Abrupt release in shallow seas (e.g. a goodly part of the ESAS is below 10 metres depth) - No. Shakhova etc have observed such emissions.
Longer and earlier open water seasons will allow increased insolation and warm water intrusion. This may accelerate warming of ocean bottom permafrost and the clathrate lid on free methane under pressure underneath.

Are current emissions sufficient to make a major impact on global methane ppb? No(t yet).
Can this risk be casually dismissed - no.
Is this risk disproven ? No. We don't really know what lies beneath in this vast area of the ocean.

Are current emissions sufficient to make a major impact on methane ppb? No(t yet).
As of today the subject belongs in the known unknown basket, IM(notvery)HO.

3
The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: January 16, 2019, 05:46:22 PM »
Trump said the US troops would leave Syria (immediately?)as Isis was defeated.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/16/us-troops-reportedly-among-casualties-in-isis-claimed-syria-attack.html
Quote
US troops killed in Syria, adding new doubt about Trump’s claim that ISIS is defeated
PUBLISHED 3 HOURS AGO | UPDATED AN HOUR AGO


The blast took place at 1:00 p.m. local time after a suicide bomber in civilian clothing approached coalition forces in the center of Manbij, according to the report.
ISIS claimed responsibility in a post via its Amaq news agency but did not produce evidence in support of the claim.

An attack in the northern Syrian town of Manbij has resulted in multiple casualties including U.S. troops, a senior Kurdish security official confirmed to NBC News.

The blast took place at 1:00 p.m. local time after a suicide bomber in civilian clothing approached coalition forces in the center of Manbij, according to the report. The security official wasn’t able to confirm the number of injured or dead. A U.S. official later told Reuters that four U.S. soldiers were killed and three wounded in the blast.

ISIS claimed responsibility in a post via its Amaq news agency but did not produce evidence in support of the claim.

U.S. troops have been stationed in Manbij in support of local partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces, as part of the anti-IS coalition and as a buffer between Kurdish militias within the SDF and Turkish forces, who view the Kurdish fighters as terrorists.

The attack comes less than a month after President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria, on the premise that ISIS had been defeated.

4
Antarctica / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
« on: January 16, 2019, 02:53:08 PM »
I bet the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent will just keep above 2 M km² (e.g. 2.08 M km²) but not go below it. According to the slower than average decline in the last week and the compactness of the remaining sea ice I wouldn't bet for the 1.875-2.125 M bin, so I chose the one above it (like Paddy did).
For those wondering about how much further melt will happen, attached is a graph of sea ice concentration derived from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data

And postings by Tealight highlighted that the key is the Weddell sea so here is that graph as well

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2019, 02:06:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,902,753  km2

Total Area         
 11,902,753    km2      
 142,062    km2   >    2010's average.
 396,124    k   >   2018
-302,902    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    18    k   
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__   -16    k   loss
Other Seas___    20    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area gain 18k, 29 k below the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

At the end of its 10 day forecast GFS shows signs of the effect of the predicted further SSW and polar vortex split.
( https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom )

6
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 16, 2019, 01:35:09 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,684,642 km2(January 15, 2019)

Extent loss of 78k , 59 k less than the average for this day.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, (and about to become 2nd after 2017). Extent is 45 k less than 2017 on this day, and 379 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 608k km2 (4.4%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 86.2% of extent loss for the season done and on average 36 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.46 million km2,  680k km2 less than the record low in 2017.  Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has reduced confidence in that prediction.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.  This effect is gradually declining as 51 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

- see Tealight graphs at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/antarctic-graphs

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2019, 01:26:50 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,988,350 km2(January 15, 2019)

- Extent gain 83k, 38k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 68 k (0.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 86.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.26 million km2 (380k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

At the end of its 10 day forecast GFS shows signs of the effect of the predicted further SSW and polar vortex split.
( https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom )
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

8
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: January 16, 2019, 01:17:05 PM »
The Murray-Darling river basin is the most important natural water system in Australia. There has been a massive fish die-off recently - years of over-extraction has reduced river flows , so a recent drought and heatwave was enough to cause a die-off.

The first-dog-on-the-moon has again produced a cartoon strip that cuts to the chase.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/16/the-murray-darling-fish-kill-is-a-monumental-catastrophe-and-also-business-as-usual


9
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: January 15, 2019, 09:03:15 PM »
On the one hand.....

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/immediate-fossil-fuel-phaseout-could-arrest-climate-change-study
Quote
Immediate fossil fuel phaseout could arrest climate change – study
Scientists say it may still technically be possible to limit warming

Climate change could be kept in check if a phaseout of all fossil fuel infrastructure were to begin immediately, according to research.

It shows that meeting the internationally agreed aspiration of keeping global warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is still possible. The scientists say it is therefore the choices being made by global society, not physics, which is the obstacle to meeting the goal.

The study found that if all fossil fuel infrastructure – power plants, factories, vehicles, ships and planes – from now on are replaced by zero-carbon alternatives at the end of their useful lives, there is a 64% chance of staying under 1.5C.

and on the other hand....
Brexit - UK government defeated in the House of Commons by 434 votes to 202,
USA- The federal government's partial shutdown became the longest in American history on Jan. 12, stretching into its 22nd day to surpass a 21-day record set in 1995. And it's still going. (USA today)
Brazil, no hope,
EU in turmoil - Poland, Hungary etc etc

BAU ?

10
binntho found that the Italian forecasters are predicting a second and even stronger SSW in the next few days. (see freezing season thread)

They are saying it is not good news for Italy (and a lot of mainland Europe) over the next few weeks as can be seen from this link and the attached image.

https://www.ilmeteo.it/notizie/meteo-arriva-il-burian-o-buran-il-grave-pericolo-di-fine-inverno-ecco-significato-e-cosa-rischia-litalia

I selfishly hope the image is correct - England avoids the worst.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 15, 2019, 07:14:02 PM »
Just bumped into another one, this time from the  main Italian forecaster. For those who don't read Italian, the main points are: "Polar vortex in pieces" is the caption plastered across the image, and further down: "Looking at the analysis map one notices that the coming days will see a very strong warming of the stratosphere, one of the strongest of the last 30 years, on par with or stronger than the one in 1985, in fact canging from -75 to -10 degrees, a crazy jump in temperatures of 65 degrees."
Google translate does very well with Italian. It seems the Italians are saying that the SSW that has just happened is likely to be followed with an even stronger one. I shall be keeping an eye on this from http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ (a website of the Japan meteorology agency).

If this means the Polar Vortex falls to bits and Eastern USA, Central Europe and part of Siberia are to be clobbered over the next few weeks what does this mean for the Arctic for the remainder of this freezing season?

Current images attached.

ps: An example of the upside of globalisation. Scientists and Government agencies all over the world working together to provide the pieces of the jigsaw of the complete climate and weather fabric. Something that the Trumps of the world just do not comprehend.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: January 15, 2019, 03:12:34 PM »
The SSW events are rather normal with big ones every 2 years.

 One reason for major stratospheric warmings to occur in the Northern hemisphere is because orography and land-sea temperature contrasts are responsible for the generation of long (wavenumber 1 or 2) Rossby waves in the troposphere. These waves travel upward to the stratosphere and are dissipated there, decelerating the winds and warming the Arctic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9 N.B. Opensource - pdf can be downloaded

The March 2018 paper by Judah Cohen quoted above states that these SSW events are increasing in frequency (and severity?) in the Arctic winter and even into spring as the Arctic warms. It also states that this is associated with severe weather events in the mid-latitudes of the USA and Eurasia. Effects are especially severe in the Eastern USA. In the western USA this effect may be neutral or even opposite.

The paper also demonstrates the WACCs hypothesis - Warm Arctic, Cold Continents. (figure attached). The paper is well worth a long read and saving (open access).

I just hope that little old England gets enough warmth from the Gulf Stream and a warming North Atlantic to be able to shed crocodile tears as Central Europe and eastern USA gets clobbered.

13
The forum / Re: Congrats to Zach Labe on his presentation award
« on: January 15, 2019, 02:34:18 PM »
Keep up the good work, Zack!
+1
I have always been consumed with envy on the work posted by Zack in this forum and on his website, both in its content (that also shows his total grasp of the subject) and the clarity of its presentation. The scientific community needs more communicators like him.

May my envy continue unabated and grow into outright jealousy.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2019, 02:20:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,885,247  km2

Total Area         
 11,885,247    km2      
 171,605    km2   >    2010's average.
 412,406    k   >   2018
-282,300    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    8    k   
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    13    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Area gain 8k, 25 k below the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

15
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: January 15, 2019, 12:38:08 PM »
When decline morphs towards extinction....

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/insect-collapse-we-are-destroying-our-life-support-systems
Quote
Insect collapse: ‘We are destroying our life support systems’

Scientist Brad Lister returned to Puerto Rican rainforest after 35 years to find 98% of ground insects had vanished


“We knew that something was amiss in the first couple days,” said Brad Lister. “We were driving into the forest and at the same time both Andres and I said: ‘Where are all the birds?’ There was nothing.”

His return to the Luquillo rainforest in Puerto Rico after 35 years was to reveal an appalling discovery. The insect population that once provided plentiful food for birds throughout the mountainous national park had collapsed. On the ground, 98% had gone. Up in the leafy canopy, 80% had vanished. The most likely culprit by far is global warming.

“It was just astonishing,” Lister said. “Before, both the sticky ground plates and canopy plates would be covered with insects. You’d be there for hours picking them off the plates at night. But now the plates would come down after 12 hours in the tropical forest with a couple of lonely insects trapped or none at all.”

“It was a true collapse of the insect populations in that rainforest,” he said. “We began to realise this is terrible – a very, very disturbing result.”....

...“We are essentially destroying the very life support systems that allow us to sustain our existence on the planet, along with all the other life on the planet,” Lister said. “It is just horrifying to watch us decimate the natural world like this.”......

Data on other animals that feed on bugs backed up the findings. “The frogs and birds had also declined simultaneously by about 50% to 65%,” Lister said. The population of one dazzling green bird that eats almost nothing but insects, the Puerto Rican tody, dropped by 90%.....

......Lister calls these impacts a “bottom-up trophic cascade”, in which the knock-on effects of the insect collapse surge up through the food chain.

“I don’t think most people have a systems view of the natural world,” he said. “But it’s all connected and when the invertebrates are declining the entire food web is going to suffer and degrade. It is a system-wide effect.”


16
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 15, 2019, 09:45:19 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,762,336 km2(January 14, 2019)

Extent loss of 78k , 69 k less than the average for this day.

Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, (and about to become 2nd after 2017). Extent is 22 k less than 2017 on this day, and 391 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 664k km2 (4.9%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 85.3% of extent loss for the season done and on average 36 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.41 million km2,  740k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17.  Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has reduced confidence in that prediction.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.  This effect is gradually declining as 49 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

- see Tealight graphs at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/antarctic-graphs
[/quote]

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2019, 09:32:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,905,748 km2(January 14, 2019)

- Extent gain 102k, 49k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 95 k (1.1%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 85.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.24 million km2 (360k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2019, 02:10:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,877,339  km2

Total Area         
 11,877,339    km2      
 208,654    km2   >    2010's average.
 459,064    k   >   2018
-251,851    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    16    k   
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__   -1    k   loss
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Area gain 16k, 20 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

19
Which continent is hit (first) is still uncertain. 
But every simulation in the American modeling system projects a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) within the next 16 days. During such a stratospheric warming event, the prevailing winds decrease or even change direction, the layer warms, and the polar vortex is displaced and sometimes splits apart....

Polar vortex could unleash winter wallop by January
Quote
When the snow advances quickly in the fall over Siberia and sea ice extent is below normal in the Barents-Kara sea, historical data suggests the vortex has an increased chance of being disrupted come winter, Cohen said. This past fall, both conditions were satisfied, leading him to conclude that “everything seems to be in place for a significant disruption." ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/

They got it right (sort of). This article from wunderground is a good read for the non-meteorologists amongst us.
https://www.wunderground.com/news/forecast/national/news/2019-01-10-the-polar-vortex-has-fallen-apart-and-that-could-unleash-a-much

The Polar Vortex Has Fallen Apart, Which Could Unleash a Much Colder End to January

And Europe has een the consequences already?
https://www.wunderground.com/news/news/news/2019-01-10-europe-snow-impacts

Europe Snow: Avalanche Hits Swiss Hotel; Death Toll Rises to 26

20
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 14, 2019, 11:46:39 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,840,057 km2(January 13, 2019)

Extent loss of 84k , 58 k less than the average for this day.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 110 k less than 2017 on this day, and 539 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 732k km2 (5.4%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 84.4% of extent loss for the season done and on average 37 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.34 million km2,  810k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17.  Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl.

Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15). However, the drop in daily extent losses has reduced confidence in that prediction.

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being still in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.  This effect is gradually declining as 47 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

- see Tealight graphs at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/antarctic-graphs

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2019, 11:10:33 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,803,930 km2(January 13, 2019)

- Extent gain 37k, 3k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 147 k (1.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 85.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: January 13, 2019, 07:35:25 PM »
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

Trump is merely continuing a very long-term trend. The USA has relied on deterrence through air and missile defence systems capability and has neglected surface capability since WW2.

After a period of neglect for a number of years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia now seeks to dominate the Arctic Ocean both militarily and economically- a policy restarted by Putin and very recently partly bankrolled by China.

The results can be seen in the ice-breaker fleets - compare Russia and the USA (+ some other countries) in the charts below.
Full list at https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Portals/9/DCO%20Documents/Office%20of%20Waterways%20and%20Ocean%20Policy/20170501%20major%20icebreaker%20chart.pdf?ver=2017-06-08-091723-907

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2019, 05:04:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,860,854 km2

Total Area         
 11,860,854    km2      
 229,478    km2   >    2010's average.
 473,845    k   >   2018
-233,106    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    17    k   
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__    3    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area gain 17k, 16 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2019, 04:15:59 PM »
Hi Gerontocrat,
many, many thanks for your great charts and graphs. I couldn't live without them.
Just a question about a tweak to make one  even more perfect  - in the chart entitled "JAXA - Arctic Sea Ice March Maximum - in km2 million" shouldn't the header of the 4th column read "Resulting 2019 Maximum"?
Yes it should. Thanks.

I do need people to point these little glitches out. Once upon a time I had one relatively simple spreadsheet - JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent, with just 4 sheets and two graphs. I now realise like topsy it has grown to well over 25 spreadsheets with something like 200 sheets and 100 graphs.

Just getting the change of year sorted is an utter pain.

25
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: January 13, 2019, 08:37:02 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2019 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 12 Jan 2019

Some dry days and wet days so far this year.

And for the next 5 to 10 days it looks like,
- no melt,
- below average precipitation,
- SMB balance year to date a bit more below average.


_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance, which excludes mass loss from calving that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.

GRACE follow-on data - where are you?
_____________________________________________________________

26
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2019, 08:17:21 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,924,066 km2(January 12, 2019)

Extent loss of 105k , 35 k less than the average for this day.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 176 k less than 2017 on this day, and 539 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 794k km2 (5.9%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 83.5% of extent loss for the season done and on average 38 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.28 million km2,  870k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17.  Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.  This effect is gradually declining as 45 days of the highest insolation have now passed, and will quickly decline come February.

- see Tealight graphs at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/antarctic-graphs

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: January 13, 2019, 07:57:40 AM »
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2019, 07:48:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,766,506 km2(January 12, 2019)

What a difference 2 days make, 48 little hours
- Extent loss 21k 56k, 91k 105k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 9th 6th    4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 149 k (1.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 84.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

29
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 12, 2019, 08:53:50 PM »
Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.  This effect is on the decline as 42 days of the highest insolation have now passed.
- see Tealight graphs at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/antarctic-graphs

Peak insulation was on the 21st of December. In my calender it's just 22 days and we still have about 95% of the peak solar radiation. It doesn't drop significantly until February.

The main reason for the AWP anomaly drop are the below average sea ice area losses.
It is certainly true that 'tis February when the sine curve of daylight hours hits the downward arm in the South and the upward arm in the North. As a SAD sufferer I can't wait (too many years in the tropics).

It is also true that it is 22 days (12th of Jan) after the solstice. One has to add to that the 22 days before the solstice plus the solstice day itself for the total number of days when daylight hours have been longer (South) or shorter (North), i.e. 43  45 days.

See attached an illustration of daylight hours I've not seen before from....
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/environment/weather/sunlight-hours

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 07:38:03 PM »
And here are the graphs for the total of the 14 Arctic Seas as provided by NSIDC.

Analysis - gradual movement towards ice-free.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 07:09:56 PM »
GROUP 5 - "Non-Arctic Seas" - St Lawrence & Okhotsk (1.9 million Km2)
Longer-term trends


Open Water percentage Climate Change - towards maritime seas vs icy deserts since 1979.

As each sea loses ice the climate must trend to maritime (milder, wetter)  from an icy desert (cold, dry). The measure I use for this is to plot the change in the percentage of open water compared with the total area of each sea.  I have done this for the maximum ice month, the minimum ice month, the three minimum ice months, and for the entire calendar year.
______________________________________________________________________
Volatility from year to year is high, adding trend lines has helped.

It is essentially a winter story for these seas. Always ice-free in summer, the percentage of open water for the three maximum months of February March and April is increasing:-
- in the Okhotsk Sea from just under 40% to approaching 70%,
- in the St Lawrence Sea from around 70% to around 80%,
- for the average of these two seas from just over 40% to just under 70%.

These seas are in essence now around 90% ice-free on a yearly average .

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 06:49:48 PM »
GROUP 5 - "Non-Arctic Seas" - St Lawrence & Okhotsk (1.9 million Km2)
Longer-term trends


Ice-Free days. The measure I use for this is the number of days sea ice area is less than n% of the 1980's sea ice extent maximum, where n is <5% (= 95% or more ice-free), <15% (which for an NSIDC pixel = zero), and <50% (more than 50% means more ice than not).

The number of ice-free days on all the measures for the Okhotsk and for the 15% and 50% measures for the St Lawrence varies muchly from year to year. inserting a trend line makes it clear that there is an upward trend in ice-free days.

In contrast, the 5% (95 % ice free) measure for the St Lawrence is very stable from year to year. The reason for this difference from the 15% and 50% measure is a total mystery to me.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 06:38:00 PM »
GROUP 5 - "Non-Arctic Seas" - St Lawrence & Okhotsk (1.9 million Km2)

Extent graphs 2018


The maximum in both seas was well above the 2010s and 200s average. The melt to zero ice, the length of time at zero ice, and the December start of refreeze were all at around average

The next posts will look at longer-term trends in these seas.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 02:33:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,843,950 km2

Total Area         
 11,843,950    km2      
 245,958    km2   >    2010's average.
 465,799    k   >   2018
-212,630    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    18    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    21    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area gain has dropped from 118k to 18k over the last 7 days, 9 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 01:56:43 PM »
GROUP 4 - The 3 Central Arctic Seas - Beaufort, East Siberian and Central Arctic Seas (5.5 million km2) Longer-term trends

Open Water percentage Climate Change - towards maritime seas vs icy deserts since 1979.

As each sea loses ice the climate must trend to maritime (milder, wetter)  from an icy desert (cold, dry). The measure I use for this is to plot the change in the percentage of open water compared with the total area of each sea.  I have done this for the maximum ice month, the minimum ice month, the three minimum ice months, and for the entire calendar year.
______________________________________________________________________

It is essentially a summer story for these seas. Solidly frozen in winter, in summer the percentage of open water for the three minimum months of August, September and October is increasing:-
- in the Beaufort Sea from 30% to approaching 70%,
- in the East Siberian from 30% to well over 70%,
- in the Central Arctic Sea from 10% to over 25%,
- for the average of these three seas from 20% to over 40%.

These seas are in essence still icy deserts.

Overall


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 01:26:15 PM »
GROUP 4 - The 3 Central Arctic Seas - Beaufort, East Siberian and Central Arctic Seas (5.5 million km2)
Longer-term trends


Ice-Free days. The measure I use for this is the number of days sea ice area is less than n% of the 1980's sea ice extent maximum, where n is <5% (= 95% or more ice-free), <15% (which for an NSIDC pixel = zero), and <50% (more than 50% means more ice than not).

The graphs for the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas attached show an upward trend in days when ice area is less than each percentage (5, 15 and 50 %). The 5% and 15% graphs show clearly how the reduction in sea ice really became apparent from 2007 onwards . At no time is the Central Arctic ice area less than 50% of total sea area. When n=80% is used, the same change in 2007 is observed.

Perhaps the 2007 extraordinary summer melt did make or highlight a permanent change in these seas at least.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 12:42:14 PM »
GROUP 4 - The 3 Central Arctic Seas - Beaufort, East Siberian and Central Arctic Seas (5.5 million km2)

Extent graphs 2018


The Beaufort Sea melted late, minimum well above 2010's average, and refroze early

The East Siberian Sea melted late, minimum well below 2010's average, and refroze late.

The Central Arctic Sea melt was early, minimum well below 2010's average, and refroze late.


The next posts will look at longer-term trends in these seas.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 10:35:00 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 11 January 2019  17,027,437 km2

The continuing gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with mostly average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest by 187k km2 (compared with 2017).

On average 35 days to minimum, with 80% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15 million km2, some 0.5 million km2 below the previous record low. BUT looking at the results from the previous 2 years, a more likely scenario, suggests a definitely very low result, and maybe a 50-50 chance of a record low.

39
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 12, 2019, 10:15:36 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 4,028,842 km2(January 11, 2019)

Extent loss of 112k , 52 k less than the average for this day.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 238 k less than 2017 on this day, and 615 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 822k km2 (6.2%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 82.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average 39 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.24 million km2,  900k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17.  Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.  This effect is on the decline as 42 days of the highest insolation have now passed.

- see Tealight graphs at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/antarctic-graphs

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 09:40:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,822,723 km2(January 11, 2019)

What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours
- Extent loss 21k, 91k less than average gain of 70 k (last 10 years) on this day.
- Extent is 9th 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 43 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 84.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.29 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 11, 2019, 10:38:09 PM »
GROUP 3 - "Atlantic Front" - The Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev Seas (4.2 million km2)

Open Water percentage Climate Change - towards maritime seas vs icy deserts since 1979.

As each sea loses ice the climate must trend to maritime (milder, wetter)  from an icy desert (cold, dry). The measure I use for this is to plot the change in the percentage of open water compared with the total area of each sea.  I have done this for the maximum ice month, the minimum ice month, the three minimum ice months, and for the entire calendar year.

The Barents Sea is now nearly ice-free for at least 3 months of the year. Of more significance is that open water has increased from around 30% to 60% in the maximum ice area month of March.
The Greenland Sea open water percentage  has increased from around 80% to 90% in the 3 minimum ice months, and in the maximum ice month of March open water has increased to  60% from 40%.
It is a summer story for both the Kara and Laptev Seas. While in winter the seas are frozen over, in the three minimum ice months in the Kara Sea open water has increased from around 60-70% to over 90% and in the Laptev Sea from around 50% to over 80%.

This process of "Atlantification" has significantly moved these seas towards becoming climatically part of the Atlantic Ocean as opposed to the icy desert of the Central Arctic.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 11, 2019, 09:28:28 PM »
GROUP 3 - "Atlantic Front" - The Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev Seas (4.2 million km2)
Longer-term trends


Ice-Free days. The measure I use for this is the number of days sea ice area is less than n% of the 1980's sea ice extent maximum, where n is <5% (= 95% or more ice-free), <15% (which for an NSIDC pixel = zero), and <50% (more than 50% means more ice than not).

The three graphs attached show that all seas are showing an upward trend in days when ice area is less than each percentage (5, 15 and 50 %).
It is the Barents Sea that is showing the greatest change and is now more than 50% ice-free for most of the year.
Without sea ice flowing down the Fram Strait, it is possible that the Greenland Sea would also show much more ice loss.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 11, 2019, 08:43:16 PM »
GROUP 3 - "Atlantic Front" - The Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev Seas (4.2 million km2)

Extent graphs 2018

The Greenland Sea showed the continued strong decline in ice content. This may be partly due to reduced flow of sea ice down the Fram Strait in recent years.

The Barents Sea was a bit late is commencing the melt but the Autumn refreeze was late and slow.

The Kara Sea was late is commencing the melt and then melted out extremely fast. The nearly ice-free period was extended, the Autumn refreeze was late and extremely fast.

The Laptev Sea melted out early and extremely fast, the virtually ice-free period was much longer than usual, and the Autumn refreeze was late and extremely fast.

The next posts will look at long-term trends in these seas.

44
The linked reference indicates that reductions in Arctic sea ice extent are increasing, but also the duration of the ice-free season is increasing. 

I am gradually posting a sea by sea analysis from 1979 to 2018 on the 2018 Arctic Sea Ice Area and Extent thread. It includes looking at trends in ice-free days and in open water vs ice. The data or most seas is in line with that study in that the duration of the ice-free season is increasing.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 11, 2019, 02:40:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,825,563 km2

Total Area         
 11,825,563    km2      
 254,313    km2   >    2010's average.
 441,557    k   >   2018
-195,202    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    28    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area gain has dropped from 118k to 28k over the last 6 days, 7 k below average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time. This could continue the stall in Bering Sea extent and area gain.

46
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 11, 2019, 01:42:21 PM »
And no data from NOAA, merci, M'sieur Le Trump.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 11, 2019, 12:12:00 PM »
I dug up that old calculation for the USA and chucked in a column for California. The data might be a bit shaky but I think it is in the right ballpark.

The data I have suggests that California electricity consumption per capita is well under half the average for the USA. That's a surprise.

I also cannot find any official data that supports that the average mileage driven per capita in California is 1.5 times the average. The data I could find suggests rather the reverse.

But the table ends up with 100% EVs needing a 50% increase in total electricity generation.

As renewables (+ nuclear) electricity generation is currently at 56%, to power EVs requires a doubling of existing renewable electricity generation capacity. A target of 100% renewable electricity generation for all purposes requires a 177% increase in existing renewable electricity generation  (plus an amount to replace existing nuclear electricity generation).

Given that history tells us since the beginning of the industrial revolution that overall energy demand is likely to increase despite efforts to improve energy efficiency, the target for 100% electricity generation in California requires a tripling at least of existing renewable electricity generation capacity over the coming decade(s).

48
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 11, 2019, 08:46:28 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 4,140,351 km2(January 10, 2019)

Extent loss of 102k , 37 k less than the average for this day.

Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 377 k less than 2017 on this day, and 674 k km2 below 2018. Extent loss from maximum is 877k km2 (6.7%) greater than the 10 year average so far, with on average 81.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average 40 days to minimum.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 1.19 million km2,  960k km2 less than the record low in 2016-17.  Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone the remaining solid ice close to the coast will likely continue to slow melt down further to a crawl. Nevertheless, a record low minimum, the first below 2 million km2, is still my guess for the 2019 minimum, continuing the loss of Antarctic sea ice over the last three years (currently 3.8 million km2 less than the record high in 2014-15).

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in one of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility. Nevertheless, that is useful in that it shows how much extent this year is below that of the years to 2015.

Being in the Austral summer, low extent and area means with insolation high, albedo warming potential in the Antarctic is also high and well above average.  This effect is on the decline as 40 days of the highest insolation have now passed.

- see Tealight graphs at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/antarctic-graphs

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 11, 2019, 08:25:41 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,843,848 km2(January 10, 2019)

- Extent gain 59k, 3k above average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 42 k (0.5%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 83.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.37 million km2 (490k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 10, 2019, 08:46:28 PM »
Second Group - Canadian Seas - Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, the Canadian Archipelago.
Longer-term trends


Open Water percentage Climate Change - towards maritime seas vs icy deserts.

As each sea loses ice the climate must trend to maritime (milder, wetter)  from an icy desert (cold, dry). The last measure I used for this is to plot the change in the percentage of open water compared with the total area of each sea.  I did this for the maximum ice month, the minimum ice month, the three minimum ice months, and for the entire calendar year.

The Canadian Archipelago has on average only 20 to 30% open water - i.e. predominantly and ice desert.
Baffin Bay has on average only 70% open water - i.e. more ice free than not which must increase the maritime climate influence for a good part of the year.
Hudson Bay is more or less an icy desert for half the year and an open sea for half the year.

The graphs attached also show that there is no clear upward trend. AGW seems to have passed them by, which is a bit of a contrast with elsewhere in the Arctic.

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