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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: January 25, 2021, 03:24:35 PM »
No need to comment...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/25/global-ice-loss-accelerating-at-record-rate-study-finds
Global ice loss accelerating at record rate, study finds

Quote
The rate of loss is now in line with the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading authority on the climate, according to a paper published on Monday in the journal The Cryosphere.

Thomas Slater, lead author and research fellow at the centre for polar observation and modelling at the University of Leeds, warned that the consequences would be felt around the world. “Sea level rise on this scale will have very serious impacts on coastal communities this century,” he said.

About 28tn (trillion) tonnes of ice was lost between 1994 and 2017, which the authors of the paper calculate would be enough to put an ice sheet 100 metres thick across the UK. About two thirds of the ice loss was caused by the warming of the atmosphere, with about a third caused by the warming of the seas.

Over the period studied, the rate of ice loss accelerated by 65%, the paper found, from 0.8tn tonnes a year in the 1990s to 1.3 trillion tonnes a year by 2017. About half of all the ice lost was from land, which contributes directly to global sea level rises. The ice loss over the study period, from 1994 to 2017, is estimated to have raised sea levels by 35 millimetres.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/233/2021/
Quote
Abstract
We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (58 %) of the ice loss was from the Northern Hemisphere, and the remainder (42 %) was from the Southern Hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.

Click image for full size

2
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Greenland snowfall so far this year is still boringly average. However, a closer look at the accumulated snowfall anomaly map is of interest (image attached).
Overall the anomaly is pretty much zero, but there are strong positive anomalies (i.e. above average snowfall) on the west coast, and especially on the SW coast and southern tip of greenland. Meanwhile there are negative anomalies (i.e. below average snowfall) on the east and north coast.

I also attach the graph of SMB, and graphs that combine DMI and GRACE-FO data using monthly data mid-month to mid-month. This is because for some reason (unknown to me) the GRACE-FO data is cumulative data to midmonth. So to make a comparison the DMI data has to be mid-month to mid-month.


3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 25, 2021, 12:30:15 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,072,404 KM2 as at 24-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 28 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.11 million km2, 0.27 million km2 (3%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.38 million km2.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

On average 93.1% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 20 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.45 million km2, 0.90 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

4
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 25, 2021, 12:16:49 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,763,356 KM2 as at 24-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 80k, 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.10 million km2, 0.22 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 14.87 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,439 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  922 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  620 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  51 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  133 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 93.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 28 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.66 million km2, 0.51 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 25, 2021, 11:45:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,309,048 KM2 as at 24-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 29k, 15 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,754 k, which is 764 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,990 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  183 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  508 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  137 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  182 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  34 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 90.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 43 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.28 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 24, 2021, 03:10:59 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 23-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,898,509 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,898,509    km2      
-172,183    km2   <   2010's average.
-435,790    km2   <   2020
 406,300    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    58    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    31    k   gain
Central Seas___    27    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    15    k   gain
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    14    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    20    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 58 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average gain of 31 k         
         
- Area is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 172 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 406 k more than 2017         
- Area is 43 k less than 2016         
- Area is 436 k less than 2020          
- Area is 331 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 23-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,588,759 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 18 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average gain of 37k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 36 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 296 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 93 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 215 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 87 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 24, 2021, 01:36:09 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,123,595 KM2 as at 23-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 59k, 31 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.06 million km2, 0.30 million km2 (4%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.36 million km2.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

On average 92.9% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 21 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.48 million km2, 0.93 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

8
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 24, 2021, 01:23:05 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,843,787 KM2 as at 23-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 127k, 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 15.02 million km2, 0.21 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.81 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,508 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  919 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  651 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  69 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  129 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 92.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 29 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.67 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 24, 2021, 12:09:36 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,279,808 KM2 as at 23-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 68k, 18 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,725 k, which is 779 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,946 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  193 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  557 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  199 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  127 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  52 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 89.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 44 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.30 million km2, 0.42 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 23, 2021, 10:31:32 PM »
Seems that Biden is not holding back. Shrieks of horror from the American Petroleum Institute.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-industry-reels-biden-targets-113000874.html

Oil Industry Reels as Biden Targets Fossil Fuels in First Days
Quote
Hours after taking office, President Joe Biden made good on a campaign promise to cancel the Keystone XL oil pipeline. Later that day his Interior Department mandated that only top agency leaders could approve new drilling permits over the next two months.

Next week, according to people familiar with the plans, Biden will go even further: suspending the sale of oil and gas leases on federal land, where the U.S. gets 10% of its supplies.

The actions sent oil producers’ stocks tumbling and raised blood pressure across the industry.

“In the first couple of days of the new administration, they are taking actions that will harm the economy and cost Americans their jobs,” said Frank Macchiarola, a senior vice president of policy for the American Petroleum Institute. “We’re concerned, and everyone in the country should be concerned.”

The Interior Department’s order, signed late Wednesday, changes procedures for 60 days while the agency’s new leadership gets into place. It requires top brass to sign off on oil leases and permits as well as decisions about hiring, mining operations and environmental reviews.

The industry took it as a bad omen. Officials are worried that technical permitting decisions are being placed in the hands of political appointees, rather than expert regulators in the field. And they’re concerned permits -- or simply changes to them -- will be delayed for existing drilling operations.

Moreover, many interpreted it as a prelude to broader actions, including the administration’s plan to next week impose a moratorium on all oil, gas and coal leasing across some 700 million acres (2.8 million hectares) of federal land.

This “announcement is intended as a temporary ban on leasing and permitting but is also a precursor to a longer-term ban,” said Kathleen Sgamma, head of the Western Energy Alliance, which has threatened to go to court to battle any such blockade.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 23, 2021, 09:40:42 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Given that this thread seems often to generate more heat than light (needs LEDs), with some trepidation I attach a different set of graphs.
To me on this graph the most important data is the mortality % of concluded cases I emphasise the calculation is simply deaths divided by (deaths + recovered).
I am not trying to say this is the true estimate of how dangerous the virus is.

What the graphs do show is...

At the beginning recorded cases were mostly people who were already sick - often very sick.
Doctors were feeling their way to find effective treatment regimes.
Hospitals were short of equipment and staff.
Many died. The mortality % was horrific.
The graphs also show very wobbly early data to be treated  with low confidence- recording systems were not in place.

As testing became more widely available together with recording systems established ,
and treatment regimes plus hospital capacity increased, recorded cases increased strongly but the chance of death reduced.
The graphs show the mortality percentage drops like a stone until....

It does not take that long for the mortality percentage of concluded cases to become virtually flat.
The percentages are
- World    2.9%,
- USA      2.7%,
- Italy     4.4%,
- UK        5.7%.
I am not sure how to interpret this. I was expecting increased testing and improvement in treatment outcomes to continue to bring this percentage down.

I will say that the UK graph is truly horrible

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2021, 04:01:59 PM »
That patch well north of Svalbard (circa 85 N) is worryingly thin for that location at the end of January. I was wondering at first was it cloud or artefact related on the Bremen image but the PSL thickness chart picks it up as thin ice (blue colour - between 20cm and 30 cm).

If nothing else even NSIDC's low-res sensor says there is a lot of low concentration ice in that area.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 23, 2021, 02:34:47 PM »
Graphs from NSIDC data

GFS says really high +ve temperature anomalies in NE Canada and Baffin Bay

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 23, 2021, 02:27:48 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 22-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,840,304 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,840,304    km2      
-199,112    km2   <   2010's average.
-425,166    km2   <   2020
 467,392    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    51    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas___    30    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________    16    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 51 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average gain of 32 k         
         
- Area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 199 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 467 k more than 2017         
- Area is 85 k less than 2016         
- Area is 425 k less than 2020          
- Area is 334 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 22-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,570,833 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 2 k, 37 k less than the 2010's average gain of 35k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 54 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 395 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 79 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 174 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 45 k less than 2012   
___________________________________________
A 50k sea ice area gain contrasted with a sea ice extent loss of 2k is somewhat of an oddity.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 23, 2021, 12:38:58 PM »
JAXA Data -a bit more

How low can it go?
I attach a table comparing extent on this day with minima in previous years.
Currently this day's extent would place the 2021 minimum in 12th lowest place, with anything between 14 and 31 further days of ever diminishing extent losses.

I also attach the January monthly average graph based on actuals to 22nd Jan + average extent change to month end. The result would be an average extent of 17.69 million km2, 9th lowest in the satellite record, and almost exactly on the linear trend.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 23, 2021, 12:12:09 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,182,274 KM2 as at 22-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 36k, 16 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 52k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.00 million km2, 0.33 million km2 (4%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.33 million km2.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

On average 92.6% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 22 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.51 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

17
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 23, 2021, 11:55:41 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,970,431 KM2 as at 22-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 90k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 93k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.89 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.73 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,588 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  989 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  709 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  142 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  80 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 92.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 30 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 23, 2021, 11:18:49 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,211,843 KM2 as at 22-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 54k, 13 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,657 k, which is 761 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,896 k.

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Extent is  171 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  526 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  209 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  168 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  24 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 89.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 45 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.27 million km2, 0.39 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

19
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 22, 2021, 10:16:42 PM »
Biden has taken an oath to defemd to the best of his ability the US Constitution.

The US Constitution has embedded within it the separation of Church and State and the rejection of rule by Kings. Much of that came from political thought influenced by events in France where the people were oppressed by the Monarchy and nobility with the total support of the Catholic Church (until 1789)

Biden is bound by his oath of office to refuse to limit by decree the rights of the people or impose laws demanded by the evangelical christians amongst many others. It is a great pity that the following is now embedded in the US psyche.

Quote
" In God We Trust " is the official motto of the United States of America and of the U.S. state of Florida. It was adopted by the U.S. Congress in 1956, supplanting E pluribus unum, which had been in use since the initial 1776 design of the Great Seal of the United States.

It seems to me that Biden is right to be trying a bit more of "E pluribus unum" as opposed to Trump's totally hypocritical "In God We Trust".



20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 22, 2021, 06:28:12 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

US Data
Total reported cases just passed 25 million.
Daily deaths averaging over 3k, but daily new cases are declining.

UK data

Daily new cases are declining, but deaths increasing to about 1,200 per day.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 22, 2021, 05:47:04 PM »
I might be wrong, but I do not believe the Nord pipeline is LNG.  It is gaseous, albeit at high pressure, like nat. gas pipelines I used to "sniff" for leaks for a short term gig.  LNG has added infrastructure to liquefy and later to revert to gas and concomitant heating and cooling that can degrade local environments. 
I am sure you are right. So if natural Gas is going to be with Germany for some time (as it is), far better to bring it in gaseous form from Russia than as LNG from the USA.

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 22, 2021, 03:00:35 PM »
Remember British Leyland? All the Government support in the world could not keep that sick beast alive.

Vividly and with reason.  I was a vehicle mechanic when it was alive.
And I was one of the idiots that bought their products - until I went to Africa and got a VW Beetle and then a secondhand Datsun 120Y.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2021, 02:54:14 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 21-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,789,089 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,789,089    km2      
-218,277    km2   <   2010's average.
-410,940    km2   <   2020
 508,790    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    44    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas___    32    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________    16    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 44 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average gain of 30 k         
         
- Area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 218 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 509 k more than 2017         
- Area is 112 k less than 2016         
- Area is 411 k less than 2020          
- Area is 336 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 21-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,572,917 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 16 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average gain of 33k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 91 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 499 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 108 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 126 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 8 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

24
I looked at the reference and could not find your graph please clarify where it is in the reference.

I cant be sure what is plotted because the vertical axis is not labeled.

The graph is just me drawing curves through PIOMAS volume data, which I have frequently done on this site. I have frequently said I don't believe the completely horizonal end of the curve as an extrapolation, it will trend down with increasing forcings like ghg levels but this shows you can fit the data without much of a decline in the current rate of loss of sea ice volume and it is tending to show that after a period of rapid loss it is curving flatter i.e. towards being harder to lose further ice volume.

(Maybe it will curve steeper again but that is just speculation not currently supported by the data or the science.)
You can find a curve to match the story you want

25
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 22, 2021, 01:18:03 PM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/evidence/nitrous_oxide.shtml
Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous oxide makes up an extremely small amount of the atmosphere - it is less than one-thousandth as abundant as carbon dioxide. However, it is 200 to 300 times more effective in trapping heat than carbon dioxide.

Nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere by plants and converted into forms such as ammonia, which can then be used by the plants. This is called nitrogen fixation. At the same time, micro-organisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere - denitrification - and this process produces nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide also enters the atmosphere from the ocean.

Nitrous oxide has one of the longest atmosphere lifetimes of the greenhouse gases, lasting for up to 150 years.

tractor sprayingBurning fossil fuels and wood is one source of the increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide, however the main contributor is believed to be the widespread use of nitrogen-base fertilisers. Sewage treatment plants may also be a major source of this gas.

Since the Industrial Revolution, the level of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased by 16%.

Due to the long time it spends in the atmosphere, the nitrous oxide that we release today will still be trapping heat well into the next century.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 22, 2021, 01:11:23 PM »
It kind of seems like the Kmart Sears merger. One failing company buying another does not fix the business model.

Personally I think they are going for too big to fail and government funds.  If it comes down to tens of thousands of French and Italian jobs; money will be forthcoming.
Remember British Leyland? All the Government support in the world could not keep that sick beast alive.

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 22, 2021, 01:08:45 PM »
The Nord pipeline may survive.

...

Of course it will survive!
It sounds like you are happy with another oil pipeline, but maybe I am misreading this.
NOT OIL. The Nord Stream pipeline is to send yet more Russian LNG to Europe and Germany especially.

I thought this pipeline was opposed by the US because firstly it would kill a large slice of demand for US LNG, and secondly it would give Russia additional demand for its LNG. Really part of the US+NATO cold war with Russia.

I also thought it would accelerate Germany's closure of coal plants, which may be regarded as a temporary positive while renewable electricity capacity and a Europe wide two-way DC electricity grid are being developed.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2021, 11:17:47 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,217,879 KM2 as at 21-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 55k, 1 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -7.97 million km2, 0.31 million km2 (4%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.28 million km2.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 92.0% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 23 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.50 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

29
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 22, 2021, 11:12:15 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,060,220 KM2 as at 21-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 91k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.80 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.64 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,743 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  998 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  735 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  182 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  75 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 91.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 31 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2021, 10:52:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,157,659 KM2 as at 21-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 36k, 5 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,603 k, which is 748 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,854 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  175 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  476 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  184 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  188 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  8 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 89.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 46 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.37 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

31
The politics / Re: Cold War II
« on: January 21, 2021, 09:22:02 PM »
I believe that the main difference between the cold war and what we have right now is that West and East only had very few economical ties during the cold war.

Right now, we have a situation were we are totally dependent of one another. No smartphone without China, but no economy in China without exports. It's like when we had no more hard disks because of flooding in Thailand in 2012.

So a war is quite difficult for all sides, even a cold war, but economically speaking, the west has to be very careful.
It was believed before World War 1 that the economies of Europe were so intertwined that war was impossible.

Watch out for idiot politicians (probably from the right) shouting about "The Yellow Peril" as has been done for centuries.

32
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/21/john-kerry-climate-crisis-joe-biden-envoy

First the good news...

Quote
John Kerry commits US to climate crisis fight

Then....

Quote
Kerry, the former US secretary of state, acknowledged that America had been absent from the international effort to contain dangerous global heating during Donald Trump’s presidency but added that “today no country and no continent is getting the job done”.

There will need to be a “wholesale transformation of the global economy” if the world is to reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, Kerry said. He said it was necessary for coal to be phased out five times faster than recent trends, the planet’s tree cover to be increased five times faster, renewable energy to be ramped up six times faster and a transition to electric vehicles to be 22 times faster than present.

“We need to all move together, because today very few are on a trajectory of the steep reductions needed to meet even current goals, let alone the targets we need to avert catastrophic damage,” Kerry said.

Optimism is fine - but needs a dose of realism to motivate kicking arse to make it happen.

33
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 21, 2021, 08:24:46 PM »
NSIDC Data

There is a big contrast between sea ice AREA and sea ice EXTENT.

Extent is currently 18th lowest (as for JAXA data).
Area is currently 7th lowest.

Concentration is currently 3rd lowest. That low concentration seems most pronounced in the Ross Sea.


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 21, 2021, 06:58:40 PM »
From NSIDC Data - Concentration

In the Peripheral Seas concentration is lowest in the satellite records for the last 5 days.
High Arctic concentration is 2nd lowest - for the last 11 days.

Perhaps an indicator of ice-pack fragility?


35
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 21, 2021, 04:26:37 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55744470
Tom Hanks hosts star-studded concert for Joe Biden's inauguration
Others suggested a prediction previously made on The Simpsons, that Hanks would address the nation during a moment of "national chaos", had now come true.



36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 21, 2021, 03:46:41 PM »
No NSIDC data update yet

perhaps at NSIDC (and elsewhere in the science community) they all got smashed/legless/kale-eyed/worse for wear at the goodbye Trump party?

NSIDC Data arrives at 11 a.m. Colorado time - some of the staff eventually turned up after last night's bash?

NSIDC Total AREA as at 20-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,745,247 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,745,247    km2      
-231,819    km2   <   2010's average.
-398,572    km2   <   2020
 522,862    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    37    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas___    26    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    18    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 37 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average gain of 30 k         
         
- Area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 232 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 523 k more than 2017         
- Area is 125 k less than 2016         
- Area is 399 k less than 2020          
- Area is 358 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 20-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,556,588 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 37 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average gain of 34k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 107 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 564 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 128 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 85 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 17 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 21, 2021, 02:01:38 PM »
from Jaxa data - a bit more

I attach the Jan 21 Monthly average graph using actuals to 20 Jan and average extent gains to month end. It can still change somewhat.

At 12.91 million km2, it would be 195k above the linear trend but still 5th lowest in the satellite record.

38
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: January 21, 2021, 01:36:09 PM »
Quote
Miami does not have an underground transit system for a very good reason.

The geology of Miami and Florida
As a result of the aquifer, it is not possible to dig more than 15 to 20 ft (5 to 6 m) beneath the city without hitting water, which impedes underground construction, though some underground parking garages exist. For this reason, the mass transit systems in and around Miami are elevated or at-grade.


Quote
@truth_tesla  1/18/21, 4:22 AM
How does the Netherlands have tunnels, if much of the country is below sea level?
The answer: tunnel concrete walls are waterproof, and tunnels are probably also excellent emergency shelters during hurricanes as well.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t…
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1351097608547278852
@truth_tesla :
 Fun fact: about 50% of Netherlands' surface is at or below 1m above sea level - and a majority of their underground tunnels are below sea level.
info at the link

Completely different set of problems.
Netherlands
"The recent Netherlands geology is formed by Pleistocene and Holocene age sediments as result of (glacio)-fluvial, eolian and marine sedimentation." (wikipedia) i.e. the near surface geology is probably relatively easy to tunnel.

Miami - built on limestone
Limestone dissolves especially below the water table. It is full of underground channels, vast caves, streams, rivers, and sinkholes.

It is not a good idea to bore tunnels through the metropolitan area's main source of freshwater.
After the tunnels are finished maybe the tunnels are entirely watertight - but during construction?

https://www.tripstodiscover.com/cave-diving-spots-in-florida/



Manatee Springs State Park, Chiefland
NEARBY HOTELS
If you’re looking for an off the beaten path cave diving experience or want a challenge, Manatee Springs offers a unique diving experience with several miles of underground caverns that feed into a spring.

Sigmetnow - you live there don't you? Do you want Musk and his machines to smash their way through what is a pretty much unique physical environment and eco-system?

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: January 21, 2021, 12:55:47 PM »
I attch a table and graphs of the 365 day trailing average.

The average continues to decline - hesitantly as daily 2021 extent is below and sometimes above the 2020 daily extent.

The projection shows a decline to mid March and then the 365 day trailing averge increases. This is because the projection assumes the 2021 melting season daily extent losses will be average, while 2020 saw a very strong melting season. See the last image.

Who knows what the reality of the 2021 melting season will be? Not me.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 21, 2021, 12:33:52 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,272,872 KM2 as at 20-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 150k, 81 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 69k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -7.91 million km2, 0.31 million km2 (4%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.23 million km2.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 91.4% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 24 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.50 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

41
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 21, 2021, 12:22:25 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,151,330 KM2 as at 20-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 142k, 41 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 101k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.71 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 14.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  1,852 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  989 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  773 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  237 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  70 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 91.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 32 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.71 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A second day of above average sea ice loss moves extent from 22nd to 18th lowest in the 43 year satellite record. Also shows how tightly the Antarctic sea ice extent peloton is grouped as just 2 days of above average ice loss moved extent from 25th to 18th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 21, 2021, 11:57:14 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,121,542 KM2 as at 20-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 8k, 40 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,567 k, which is 753 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,814 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  171 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  421 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  253 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  223 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  8 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 88.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 47 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.37 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A second day with an extent loss - but lower than the previous day. Extent up one place from 7th to 6th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

43
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 20, 2021, 11:10:49 PM »
 
 the abuse just keeps coming .. this from freegrass ...

So we all sing kumbaya now and America's problems are gone because Trump is gone? We just ignore the rise of China and American religious extremism that's eating that nation from the inside?

I find it disgusting that a single moderator can just delete an entire thread without reason or giving notice to the creator...

I'm seriously pissed off that BC deleted this thread... How many more of my contributions will get deleted on this forum because the moderator doesn't like me?

FUCK YOU BC!!!!!!!!!
Modify message
« Last Edit: Today at 07:51:52 PM by Freegrass »

Freegrr ass : .. I have not deleted your or any thread .
Any and every time I or others are subject to abuse in the off-topics section , there will be a gap in postings by the abuser .   b.c.
The thread was not deleted. He forgot where it was.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3402.msg298769.html#msg298769

44
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 11:07:31 PM »
Wonder how much America’s southern border wall grew under President Trump? The answer is 47 miles, raising the total walled distance along the U.S.-Mexico border from 654 miles when Trump took office to now 701 miles. (The entire border is 1,954 miles long.)
Sometimes the bad can be made good

Pink seesaws across US-Mexico border named Design of the Year 2020


American and Mexican families enjoying the Teeter Totter Wall, which crosses the Mexican border with US

45
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 10:27:51 PM »
A really dumb comic strip. Biden isn't a tool of the so-called military-industrial complex, and he actually does give a damn about climate change. Whoever wrote this junk would know that if they bothered to look at his climate plan.
It is cerainly true that the term "military-industrial complex" is somewhat last century (warning by Eisenhower at the end of his Presidency).

The military-industrial complex is very much a junior partner these days.
It has been replaced mostly by Wall Street / Financial Institutions and now also by Big-Tech (though they may have blown it).

It is also certainly true that Biden is a Corporate Democrat to the core. I was interested to note that Amazon was one of the corporate donors invited to the inauguration. (Were any ordinary members of the public invited?)

The smart Wall Street money has clocked that the real money is to be made in the new industries linked to climate change. Fossil fuel companies and legacy automakers are already feeling the chill. Hence a bold climate change plan is pushing at an open door. Though will that just be promoting renewables + EVs, or will it include actively erecting obstacles to fossil fuel investments?

The smart Wall Street money also knows it needs internationalism - including smart immigrants. Though that internationalism is likely to be limited as it seems many Democrats and Republicans share various shades of protectionism.

The real test will be doing something about economic / education / housing etc etc inequality. Infrastructure spending - no problem $$$.

A more progressive taxation regime? Now we are talking hardball.

I hope Biden gets much of his agenda through. Though if he does I will be jealous as our idiot Boris leads us into permanent decline on this side of the pond.

46
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: January 20, 2021, 10:01:47 PM »
Then who deleted it? You're the moderator here.
I guess you were last in line when they were handing out brains? Of course this thread is useless. I just made it BECAUSE I WANT MY ORIGINAL THREAD BACK!!!

Were you the one who deleted it?

Freegrass - sometimes you are a plonker.


The thread is not deleted - you put it somewhere else, namely.....

Arctic Sea Ice : Forum »Off-topic »The rest (Moderator: be cause) »The Collapse Of America

1st post was at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3129.msg268876.html#msg268876


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January, mid-monthly update)
« on: January 20, 2021, 06:31:50 PM »
More analysis derived from the PIOMAS data from Wipneus

The January monthly average graph is attached, using actual data to 15 Jan and average volume gain from 10 to 31 Jan giving a monthly average of 15.6 thousand km3. This is 120 km3 less than the trend value - less than half a year ahead of trend. This would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 975km3 more than Jan 2017.

It should be noted that the Jan 2017 was 2,200 km3 or 8 years below the linear trend. One way looking at the 2021 Jan average is that over half that 2017 2,200km3 deviation has been clawed back by Jan 2021.

Also attached is a table and graph of the 365 day trailing average volume . It is still 891 km3 above the record low on 31 August 2017, but is currently declining at 2km3 per day, some 2 1/2 times the long-term average. It is certainly possible that a new record low could be reached in 2022, but in 2021? - highly unlikely.

48
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 02:44:15 PM »
A view from AussieLand

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/20/we-made-it-happy-united-states-presidential-inauguration-day-everyone
We made it! Happy United States presidential inauguration day everyone!
First Dog on the Moon


Click for larger & easier to read images

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 20, 2021, 02:18:47 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 19-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,707,818 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,707,818    km2      
-239,723    km2   <   2010's average.
-396,092    km2   <   2020
 527,869    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    29    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas___    19    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    10    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    19    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 29 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average gain of 28 k         
         
- Area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 240 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 528 k more than 2017         
- Area is 127 k less than 2016         
- Area is 396 k less than 2020          
- Area is 417 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,519,326 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 51 k, 17 k more than the 2010's average gain of 34k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 104 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 614 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 123 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 67 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 30 k less than 2012      
________________________________________
There was a big drop in NSIDC daily extent on this day - 108k.
JAXA extent also dropped. What's going on?   Just a blip?

___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January, mid-monthly update)
« on: January 20, 2021, 01:57:47 PM »
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files.
Good use of the data or not here is an analysis as at 15 jan.

PIOMAS  Volume as at 15 Jan 2021  15,557 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 11,528 km3, 175 km3, (1%),  less than the 10 year average of 11,703 km3.

- Volume is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Volume is  157 km3 LESS than 2013
- Volume is  986 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  754 km3 LESS than 2020

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2021 of 21,833 km3, 1,051 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size

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