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Messages - Clenchie

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 18, 2019, 09:22:47 AM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

Sorry to hear of your loss Neven.  My condolences - thinking of you and yours.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 11:53:48 AM »
Looks like high winds round the top of Greenland today.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 04:54:37 PM »

My prediction, then, based on observation, climatology, and history: 2019 is about to see a very large--perhaps even record-breaking--drop in ASI extent.



Jim, I like your reasoning and subsequent prediction.  There doesn't necessarily need to be a big drop straight off though, it could happen more slowly and still validate your argument.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 06:46:31 PM »
If and when this big block is gonna be swallowed by the Nares. Just when it is getting very close, I have the feeling the flow rate thru the channel has been reduced (ain't it?)

At the current approach rate it should take a week to arrive.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 05, 2019, 12:58:15 PM »
Quote
And yet, apart from 2012, extent minimum refuses to go below 4 million km2.
Extent is not the only metric there is, and the least important IMHO, though easiest to measure. Ice area has not been idle since 2012, as 2016 showed. Especially when looking at AMSR2 data, sadly not available before 2012.

I am no expert but I guess extent is a rough indication as to the state of the ice, area a better one and volume the best of the lot, but maybe it could be rather difficult to collect accurate volume data.  By the way, many thanks to all the experts on this forum for their explanations and insights, particularly when interpreting the weather forecasts.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 01, 2019, 10:26:18 AM »
Good news - arctic explorer is back online:

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 25, 2019, 01:27:02 PM »
arctic.io Arctic Explorer has been off for a week now.
No Wonder, more & more People must be checking out the Reality- as has the number of new members started to grow.

I was wondering what had happened to arctic explorer.

All I get is the following message:

This site can’t be reached www.arctic.io’s server IP address could not be found.
Try running Windows Network Diagnostics.
DNS_PROBE_FINISHED_NXDOMAIN

Have switched instead to Worldview on https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines

Apologies if off topic.

8
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 29, 2018, 08:50:34 PM »
The beginning of the end of the Kane Basin bridge.  DMI's Sentinel-1 today

Yes, judging by the cracks it looks like the ice is about to disintegrate all the way up to the top of the channel.

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 11, 2018, 10:09:18 PM »
Not sure if it is significant but just noticed a gap in the ice opened up at the North end.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 29, 2017, 03:37:31 PM »
Would it be safe to assume that cold air has left the arctic and migrated to the US, lowering the temperature in the latter and raising it in the former?  If so, let's hope nothing similar happens here in the UK!

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 14, 2017, 09:07:57 PM »
i'm sure many remember what some here are expecting over wider areas (as a possibility of course, no claim that it has to) then look at this image and those a few hours before:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg125272.html#msg125272

In all fairness Magnamentis the buoy has been locked in a floe and I guess it has broken free now and the direction of the camera is likely gonna vary quite considerably.  Still, a big change on the last few months!

Edit - apologies, realised it is off topic, just seen the obuoy thread!

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 07:26:16 PM »


Thanks Csnavywx, looks like a scorcher in the CAA.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 25, 2017, 08:32:32 PM »
August 1 2016 on top.
Today, July 25, 2017 on the bottom.
(north of Greenland)

Of particular note is the fjord.  Ice free in 2016 yet still frozen in 2017.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 08:11:24 PM »
Apologies if this is the wrong thread for this comment but I did a quick search and couldn't find one dedicated to the o-buoys.

I noticed that o-buoy 14 has been on the move for a couple of weeks and is headed below Stefansson island seemingly towards a dead end.  Maybe it will do a loop along another channel with the current or perhaps come back again.  No idea really.

On another note, the view from the camera a few weeks back showed a lot of surface water and less ice.  Since then it has appeared very icy with few melt ponds.

http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera



15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 05, 2017, 06:18:29 PM »
I don't like to say it but judging by the satellite pictures a lot of peripheral ice is disappearing very quickly!

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« on: July 05, 2017, 12:11:04 PM »
Truth be told, if one looks at the volume anomaly from July onwards, 2012 is not outstanding, (not in its value itself which is outstanding, but in its evolution to becoming less anomalous):
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg119288.html#msg119288

Don't ask me why though

I am no expert but if what you are saying is that from July onwards, 2012 lost a lot of extent but not an anomalous amount of volume then my take would be that it latterly lost a large area of very thin ice, leaving the thicker core relatively normally affected.  That way the extent declined heavily but the volume declined normally.  Does that make sense?

Other than that it could just be inaccurate volume measurements. 8)

17
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 02, 2017, 04:37:25 PM »
Nice works Bairgs. 8)

18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 01, 2017, 06:36:21 PM »
Thanks bairgon, great animation and explanation.

Yes Bairgs, your theory has great merit.  The underwater obstructions must wreak havoc with the ice and cause chaotic flow patterns.

19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 30, 2017, 08:59:05 PM »
(There are a few quite small floes (bergs?) near the lower right corner of this animation that don't move, including a "" shaped one.) [Bell Floe is about 15 km wide.]

Those look to be either land masses or glitches on the image because they don't move one iota despite all the movement around them.  I have tried to enlarge the image but all I get is large pixels, without definition enough to discern their true nature.  They are very small.  I wonder if there is someone with more detailed knowledge of the waters in that area, or maybe access to images with better resolution.

Update:  if you go to 24th September 2015 you will see something in the exact same spot that doesn't move in the days either side.  There is more ice but the same spot is there.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 29, 2017, 07:25:44 PM »
The ice packed above Severny island looks to be in sunshine too.

Definitely getting warm up there. This is the fate of some fast ice on the mainland (opposite the ice packed on the island). It has separated and just about melted in 6 days.

Nice sequence Bairgs, but dreadful to see how fast those large floes dissolved.  Guess they were only thin ice.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 29, 2017, 04:41:26 PM »
It seems significant melt is going on Atlantic side as we speak, too, with the region of particular interest being 65...110°E x 80...85°N. Much of that area is badly fractured, and most of it has only very thin "cloud" cover. I'm not sure that could be called clouds, even...

The ice packed above Severny island looks to be in sunshine too.

22
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 28, 2017, 06:44:45 PM »
Quote
I've been wanting to call it the "Bell Floe" since before Hans Island, but I refrained myself as I enjoy using names derived from other's observations.  the Sentinel images show some curved texture that suggests it is a 3-D object and not a functionally flat floe.  Screen shots from DMI Sentinel & AQUA, both dated 2017-06-27

It was either a bell or a Darth Vader mask so I plumped for brevity.  Interesting that you have discovered a curved texture on the North West sector of the floe.  Maybe we could get a 3d render at some point.  It looks to be only about 120km from Thule airbase - could be filmed from the air!

I have taken the liberty of juxtaposing two pictures that illustrate the rotation of the floe as it passes down the channel.  The first is from 19th June up by the Petermann glacier, the second is yesterday in the Kane Basin.


23
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 28, 2017, 06:36:04 PM »
Quote
For the sake of readability, may I suggest when quoting a chain of quotes, to edit and use just the last quote or the relevant part.

Apologies, I thought the protocol was to leave a complete trail.  Will edit selectively in future.

24
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 28, 2017, 01:25:00 PM »
Looks pretty intact, lucky floe!  By the way:  thanks Clenchie and Phil for watching.

(The floes actively approaching Nares Strait in the Lincoln Sea are all pretty small already.  The largest floes in the Lincoln Sea are hugging the Greenland coast and appear to be (temporarily) frozen in place.)

That floe has now made it unscathed past the two islands now. It seems that the ice near the entrance to the strait in the Lincoln sea has broken up into fairly small fragments compared with a week or so ago.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017173074500-2017173075000.250m.jpg

It is surprising how fast such a large floe can proceed down the channel.

Indeed, the fragment we were talking about is now about 55 miles south of Franklin Island.

The distinctive shape makes it easy to track.  Hopefully it is thick enough to remain intact and survive for another winter, currents allowing.

Now it's about 83 miles south of Franklin.

It has kept its distinctive bell shape and drifted into the centre of the channel.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 27, 2017, 07:52:24 PM »
Now that it has been a week since my last Worldview Sea Ice Outlook for Summer 2017, I've done a Part 2 using the latest Worldview imagery and my subjective take on it:


In summary:  things have accelerated more than I expected, such that I now think 2017 will end up somewhere between 2012 and 2016.

Nice explanations, thank you
There is an awful lot of ice so vulnerable, like the ice you point out that has "crumbled down" in almost a single blow

Nice work Sis, I found your comments on the melt ponding particularly interesting.  I look forward to the next update.

Cheers, Clenchie.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 27, 2017, 06:49:47 PM »
Any ideas about how the 2017 minimum will look like?

What are your guesses? Here i put my very simple idea about how the 2017 minimum might look like by the middle of September:

Lordy, I have added my effort in purple, the darker the thicker.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 01:42:23 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

an idea that's not necessarily the case is that with the ice getting thinner each year, more and more dirt/soot accumulates on the surface. an example for this happening is the glaciers in the alps (and elsewhere) that get darker and darker in summer when the snow cover melted and this year's surface melt adds to the previous years.

there is a certain amount of sand and other dirt in the ice and some glaciers know entire regions where the ice is almost fully covered by the stuff, which of course accelerates the melting process through increased albedo. the end result in some places is a black surface and not all is just dust, at times there are small stone fragments, at least on glaciers, not necessarily/probable in the arctic and most propably not on sea-ice due to lack of sources for stones. what remains is the dust made from volcanic ashes from centuries and sand imported from deserts over time.

An interesting idea Maggie, and I get where you are coming from, but this particular ice melts out in the summer.

ok, thanks for the heads up, was focusing on soot instead of considering the exact location, so it either is fresh ash etc. or something in the imagery.

resume, idea not valid, thanks, perhaps someone else has more insight, let's see.

An earlier post by Buds on this thread points out that the ice in this area is always that colour, but not knowing the cause.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 25, 2017, 08:02:22 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

an idea that's not necessarily the case is that with the ice getting thinner each year, more and more dirt/soot accumulates on the surface. an example for this happening is the glaciers in the alps (and elsewhere) that get darker and darker in summer when the snow cover melted and this year's surface melt adds to the previous years.

there is a certain amount of sand and other dirt in the ice and some glaciers know entire regions where the ice is almost fully covered by the stuff, which of course accelerates the melting process through increased albedo. the end result in some places is a black surface and not all is just dust, at times there are small stone fragments, at least on glaciers, not necessarily/probable in the arctic and most propably not on sea-ice due to lack of sources for stones. what remains is the dust made from volcanic ashes from centuries and sand imported from deserts over time.

An interesting idea Maggie, and I get where you are coming from, but this particular ice melts out in the summer.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 25, 2017, 07:04:35 PM »
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown.  Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 24, 2017, 07:35:08 PM »
Looks pretty intact, lucky floe!  By the way:  thanks Clenchie and Phil for watching.

(The floes actively approaching Nares Strait in the Lincoln Sea are all pretty small already.  The largest floes in the Lincoln Sea are hugging the Greenland coast and appear to be (temporarily) frozen in place.)

That floe has now made it unscathed past the two islands now. It seems that the ice near the entrance to the strait in the Lincoln sea has broken up into fairly small fragments compared with a week or so ago.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017173074500-2017173075000.250m.jpg

It is surprising how fast such a large floe can proceed down the channel.

Indeed, the fragment we were talking about is now about 55 miles south of Franklin Island.

The distinctive shape makes it easy to track.  Hopefully it is thick enough to remain intact and survive for another winter, currents allowing.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 08:54:27 PM »
It must be only a matter of days before Herald Island is freed from the ice, which must surely be a sign of an early melting season in the Chukchi Sea.  8)

32
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 22, 2017, 07:16:17 PM »
...
Given [Hans Island's] position obstructing traffic on the Nares Strait Lincoln Sea Ice Motorway (Autostrada, Freeway) is there any data regarding its diminuition in size due to frequent collisions with self-driving lumps of ice ?
I expect one might feel some of those lumps of ice hitting the island, but they will have a tiny affect on its size.  The Ice Age glaciers that carved Nares Strait continually dragged a giant's equivalent of sandpaper against it, and were able to put a lot of umph into their work, yet "decided" to leave its remnants alone.  But the way, it is composed of Silurian aged limestone, per this  1931 map (via Geo. Survey of Denmark)
(Interesting that Petermann Fjord had a different name then.)


It doesn't look that high so I guess it will one day be below sea level. Thanks to Tor Bejnar for pointing out the height is 150m - 170m, which means that it will remain above sea level even if the most pessimistic sea level predictions are manifested.

33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 22, 2017, 03:52:01 PM »
Looks pretty intact, lucky floe!  By the way:  thanks Clenchie and Phil for watching.

(The floes actively approaching Nares Strait in the Lincoln Sea are all pretty small already.  The largest floes in the Lincoln Sea are hugging the Greenland coast and appear to be (temporarily) frozen in place.)

That floe has now made it unscathed past the two islands now. It seems that the ice near the entrance to the strait in the Lincoln sea has broken up into fairly small fragments compared with a week or so ago.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017173074500-2017173075000.250m.jpg

It is surprising how fast such a large floe can proceed down the channel.

34
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 21, 2017, 07:33:08 PM »
Yup (I rotated [then cropped] a screen print from Phil's link - and it is now afternoon here  ;D)

It is further down now.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 07, 2017, 12:48:48 PM »
The New NSIDC sea ice concentration map is a useful addition to the SIE one.

You can see it here:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

It gives the percentage sea ice concentration rather than the whole extent over 15%, which makes much more sense given the volume decline.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 04, 2017, 10:03:59 AM »
Once the MYI in the Lincoln Sea has gone are we not likely to have an early opening of the Nares Strait every year?  Not sure if first year ice is strong enough to keep it closed.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 18, 2017, 09:46:21 PM »
Thanks Tigertown, a picture paints a thousand words.

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