Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - Hyperion

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
I am thinking also that ice dyking much of the through-flow channels of the CAA would be a big bonus in disabling the Garlic-press  and throttling down Halodecline by fresh surface water export here.

Rite, I will play 'your silly game'!  Attached image shows 'dykes' plugging all viable channels of the garlic press - each located at the narrowest point between bits of terra firma.  The total length of dyke required is 300 kilometres, with the longest span being about 100 km. 

Such a project would not be a 'bonus', it would be an engineering impossibility within the presently available resources and skills and likely a practical failure too, IMHO.  The environmental implications are poorly understood, and the potential unintended consequences (including the impact of the soot from the fossil fuel emissions of plant building the dykes on ice life) are likely to be too numerous to enumerate, with either forward- or hind-sight. 


Adam. I am ashamed to be a fellow New Zealander when I see this response. You obviously did not read my analysis above showing that 50 of these 5m wingspan, 5 ton payload, hover-skimmer drones, which my estimates show could be built for as little as $ 10000 each (I AM a world champion high performance Design Engineer by the way), could build over 3000km of 50m deep Ice Dykes in 100 days. Not to mention each blanket 1000s of sqkm of land in snow, and dump several tons of water per minute from a lake or river 5km away on a permafrost, or Boreal forest fire if you are worried about soot.
 And by hydrothermal Pyrolysis of Kelp the biofuel can be made up to 10x carbon negative, and very clean burning. This is work done in collaboration with the likes of Prof Emeratis of the Edinburgh engineering and design school Steven Salter, Prof Wadhams, and AMEG Chair John Nissan in 2013. And a number of NZ world champion engineers and fluid and Thermo- dynamicists contributing also.
I first Modeled and discarded the idea of wind-turbine pumps, as Nasa has this year released their oh so exciting plan to save us all using, back then. I'm sure they got copies of my designs from the NSA. Their analysis mirrors what we decided. That millions would be needed, you can't distribute more than about 30L per second from a stationary unit before overwhelming the local atmospheric capacity to dissipate the latent heat, and all you really get in the end by this route is a salty junk floe that has little structure and little chance of achieving a low enough core temp for bottom growth and HyperSaline brine subduction. And the fossil fuel use and costs for deployment and maintenance would be unacceptable.

And by the way I would not suggest completely sealing all the CAA channels. Grounding fast Ice Shelves to replace the ones that were there, restrict flows, and thereby try and stop all the halocline failure that seems obvious to be mostly happening by that route is of prime importance to the entire Arctic Ecosystems. And Kelp-farming on rope grids would be a big help too. As for it being unfeasible, and they would just melt or get pushed away? Got that covered.
Here's a concept pic. Stationary versions of this heat pipe system would be very cost effective, capable of either generating lots of green electricity with part of the energy being evicted, or set up absolutely fail-proof with no moving parts. Versions like pictured could be used to actually stir the Beaufort Gyre back into good health so it preserves its low salinity lid, As well as building deep keeled burgs in the 20+m range with super cooled cores for hyper-saline down-welling brinacle production like we had all around that area a couple of decades ago from now lost thick ice-shelves. The system that feeds oxygen to the deep benthic zone which is 80% of the oceans volume, and contains the vast majority of its species. Most as yet not even discovered.
Killing that because choosing not to try, avoids the chance of failure is not ethical. And as Confucius say....

One more thing about transferring heat from subsurface northward gulfstream flows to the cap of southbound cold stuff above it south of Greenland. This vastly improves outbound longwave that is lost by this significant portion of the earths surface area being reduced in its capacity to radiate. Hansen 2015 calculated this effect as x10 of current greenhouse gas overburden to be expected shortly. And of course the thermal gradient with nearby far hotter Nth Atlantic waters creates serious storm breeding potential. So much advantage to enhancing the planets heat export capacity here.
And of course the Ice and snow building system also has big bonuses in the planetary energy export budget.
I am thinking also that ice dyking much of the through-flow channels of the CAA would be a big bonus in disabling the Garlic-press  and throttling down Halodecline by fresh surface water export here.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 16, 2017, 01:55:03 PM »
<send Jim a PM, as this is still off-topic; N.>

Policy and solutions / Oceanic Current breakdown remediation
« on: August 16, 2017, 01:25:15 PM »
Or Stopping the AMOC going AMUC.

thereby flushing out the freezable low salinity surface layer. And ceasing Atlantic bottom water production. Which it probably already has, thereby whipping us down the road to deep and mix bathometric Anoxia and a Canfield ocean state Super greenhouse Anoxic ocean event.

We have lost the historic thick Ice shelves and bergs that had the capacity to maitain well below freezing core temperatures throughout the summer, and over winter generated large hypersaline downwelling brinicles as they scavenged ice from the salty incoming Atlantic waters and created slugs of cold saline  bottomwater to ooze over the GB-FAROES-ICELAND-GREENLAND shallow portal to the basin and replenish the atlantic deep benthic waters with fresh oxygen and motion.

I'm Proposing that a no lose intervention at this point is:
- Rather than let the gulf-stream Increasingly colonize the entire Arctic basin with a counterclockwise upward helical spiral that appears to maybe have already exhausted all the cold hyper-saline bottom water it can squeeze over the exit ridge.

-To the Point that with pernicious low pressure over the Arctic we have an AMUC - Atlantic Meridional Under-turning Current, filling the basin with warm salty stuff from below and evicting our low salinity surface lens by wind, Coriolis and mechanical filtering thru primarily the CAA.

A good Idea May be to utilize large scale fluid-gas phase transfer heat pipe systems to extract the heat from the over 15C in places incoming water where it is sliding under the outgoing cold fresh stuff. The working fluid is heated in the lower heat exchanger/evaporator, travels up to the surface as a gas, generates vast amounts of energy  passing through a turbine before being cooled at the surface by a similar heat-exchanger/condenser, before returning as a fluid down to another turbine at the bottom and through the evaporator again.

Even better if some momentum exchange could be added in. Returning the fresh to the Arctic, and the salt to the Atlantic. Which may well happen if the Gulfstream can be cooled and sink south down the bottom incline off Newfoundland or south of Iceland. It wouldn't need to displace the cold fresh stuff south if it did not get in to the Arctic. There seems to be two areas of about 100km width where this could be VERY effective. With over 1m/s flow rates and the biggest temperature and salinity differentials. Bering Strait could be a candidate too.

-Needless to say there is a very large amount of money to be made from the energy this low level engineering challenge could produce.

-And the Storm feeding potential of the North sea and arctic would be greatly reduced. Not to mention sea-level rise, clathrate guns.....

Sorry about the scruffy paint drawn concept mock-up. No CAD at present.

A bit of a rundown on the north sea current dynamics I found in my archive:

The North Atlantic Current

Elizabeth Rowe, Arthur J. Mariano, Edward H. Ryan

The North Atlantic Current (NAC) as represented by the Mariano Global Surface Velocity Analysis (MGSVA). The NAC transports warm Gulf Stream water poleward. It feeds the Irminger current and the broad northward N. Atlantic drift.
The North Atlantic Current originates between the Grand Banks and Mid Atlantic Ridge near the Newfoundland Ridge at the branch point of the Gulf Stream. Mann (1967, 1972) using a reference level of 2,000 dbar found that the NAC (his "Atlantic Current") was made up of 20 Sv of water from the Gulf Stream and 15 Sv from the Slope Water Current bringing the total transport up to 35 Sv. Other transport estimates for the NAC include 35 Sv (ref leval 1900 m) (Krause et al., 1987); In his figure 15 the Gulf Stream is located at 40°N 50°W and the Slope Water current at 41°N 50°W. Fuglister (1963) considered this to be a typical situation and found a westerly countercurrent separating the two. Rossby (1996) estimates a transport of 40 Sv in his review of the North Atlantic Current. Mann (1967) notes that the currents are permanent but subject to meandering as demonstrated by International Ice Patrol observations.

The North Atlantic Current represents the bulk of the Gulf Stream continuation past its branch point. Mann (1967) shows the The North Atlantic Current as comprised of waters from the Slope Water Current and from the Gulf Stream. In his representation approximately 15 Sv are derived from the Slope Water Current with the remaining 20 Sv contributed by the Gulf Stream. The remaining 30 Sv head off to the north east. The NAC is strengthened by mixing interactions of the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current as well. Worthington had shown the NAC as part of a separate Northern gyre, however subsequent work later revealed that this hypothesis was incorrect and that the North Atlantic Current was indeed derived from the Gulf Stream. The North Atlantic Current is generally thought of as the end of the Gulf Stream, however it goes on to feed some of the major subarctic currents completing the poleward transport of tropical waters.

Based on five years of NOAA satellite imagery (1980-1985) Krauss et al. (1987) identified two basic flow patterns for the NAC. The first is the "classical situation" where the NAC flows north past Flemish Cap, into the Northwest Corner (52°N), forms a loop, and turns east. In this case there are only minor extrusions of water on the current's offshore side. The other pattern is the "branching situation". In this case only part of the NAC continues to the northwest corner while large amounts of water are expelled from the eastern side of the current (between pressure cells). Evidence for these different regimes can also be found in hydrographic studies. Worthington (1976) identified and named the Northwest Corner even though he did not show the NAC as a continuation of the Gulf Stream. Krausse et al. (1987) show the NAC branching at 47°N, 41°W with waters from the eastern flank heading northeast and from the western flank heading northwest towards the Northwest Corner.

Clark et al (1980) published one of the most influential reports on this region. They established the branch point proposed by Mann (1967) and refuted Worthington's (1976) two-gyre hypothesis. Clark et al. (1980) found a transport of 53 Sv (2000 dbar reference) for a merged slope water current and Gulf Stream with maximum speeds of ~100 cm s-1. They only found peak velocities of 50 cm s-1 in the North Atlantic Current but noted that they had sectioned the current obliquely. A more typical maximum velocity for the North Atlantic Current is the 100 cm s-1 reported by Krausse et al. (1987). Clarke et al. (1980) found that 26 Sv of the combined Gulf Stream Slope current flow contributed to the North Atlantic Current with the remaining 27 Sv turning east. Although Mann (1967) too had noted the presence of a large clockwise eddy, he had not accounted for its contribution to the northward flow. Clark et al estimated a contribution of approximately 18 Sv (2000 db reference) from this "Newfoundland Basin eddy". The Labrador Current recirculation was shown "blending" into the North Atlantic Current although there was no estimate of transport contribution. Krauss et al. (1990) found that extensive mixing between Labrador Current and North Atlantic Current water produces caballing which too in turn strengthens the North Atlantic Current.

Worthington's two gyre hypothesis is the most influential rejection of the North Atlantic Current as an extension of the Gulf Stream (Wothington, 1962, 1976). Based on the higher oxygen content of waters off Flemish Cap Worthington concocted a new circulation scheme involving a separate northern geostrophic anticyclonic gyre in which the North Atlantic Current functioned as a western boundary current. He also felt that salinity differences between the regions were too great to be accounted for by mixing and used that as further evidence for this gyre. Lastly he cited the presence of a low pressure trough separating the gyres although his flow lines did not correspond well to dynamic height charts. Since so many other aspects of Worthington's circulation scheme were correct his theory was probably given credence for far longer than warranted. The two gyre hypothesis was finally laid to rest by Clark et al (1980) who were able to account for most of the water property differences which initially led Worthington to propose his two gyre theory. They also cited Worthington's departure from geostrophy as major flaw in the theory. Clarke et. al. (1980) confirmed Mann's findings which are that the Gulf Stream splits south of the Grand Banks and that the North Atlantic Current is a continuation of the Gulf Stream.

The other branch of the Gulf Stream was seen as a broad indefinite flow with part returning southwards contributing to the Gulf Stream recirculation (Clarke et al, 1980) and part turning eastward to eventually coalesce and strengthen forming the Azores Current (Klein and Seidler, 1989). During winter months Klein and Seidler (1989) showed a single current flowing from the source region near the Southeast Newfoundland Rise. However, the situation differed in the summer where they found the current from the source region branching into two current bands near 41°N 47°W. The northern branch was found to head almost straight for the Azores Current but the southern branch formed a cyclonic loop with only 70% of its flow crossing the Mid Atlantic Ridge. This may be evidence of seasonality in the source region or may result from the general variability inherent in the source region.

References :

Clarke et al., 1980: Current system south and east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 10, 25-65.
Fuglister, F.G., 1963: Gulf Stream at 60, Progress in Oceanography, 1, 265-373.
Klein, B. et al. and G. Seidler, 1989: On the origen of the Azores current, Journal of Geophysical Research, 94, 4905-4012.
Krauss, W., E. Fahrbach, A. Aitsam, J. Elken, and P. Koske, 1987: The North Atlantic Current and its associated eddy field southeast of Flemish Cap. Deep-Sea Research, 34, 1163-1185.
Krauss, W., R. Doscher, A. Lehmann, and T. Viehoff, 1990: On eddy scales in the eastern and northern North Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude. Journal of Geophysical Research, 95, 18049-18056.
Mann C.R., 1967: The termination of the Gulf Stream and the beginning of the North Atlantic Current, Deep-Sea Research, 14, 337-359.
Mann, C.R., 1972: A review of the branching of the Gulf Stream System, Proc. R. Soc. Edinb., B72, 341-349.
Rossby, T., 1996: The North Atlantic Current and surrounding waters: At the crossroads. Reviews of Geophysics, 34, 463-481.
Worthington, L.V., 1962: Evidence for a two gyre circulation system in the North Atlantic, Deep-Sea Research, 9, 51-67.
Worthington, L.V., 1976: On the North Atlantic circulation, Oceanographic Studies, The John Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 6, 1-110.

A few proposals for remediation and recovery I have been working on over the last few years. Lets discuss. To my mind some hope, however tenuous is better for the soul than scrabbling for reasons to rejoice in, avoid thinking about, or even resign oneself to Calamity.

Lets start with one I was working on a couple of years ago to tame beasts like the ESAS amongst a whole emergent ZOO this approach now seems screaming for.

Kelp Farming and Ice dyking for habitat enhancement and negative Carbon fuels and chemical production.

A purpose built craft like this Ground effect plane / hovercraft triphibian concept could be ideal.  The laterally rigid sideskirts with vertically flexable surface contouring  ski bottoms would allow transitions between air, water ,ice, snow, earth surfaces of all types and the waterscoop tail could directly hose the water onto the ice with foil effect to counter lateral reaction thrust.

 Snow making, firefighting, and ecology seeding also in its functionality.

At pumping of 10tons per second, 50m x 100m/s = 5000sqm,  10000kg/5000sqm = 2 kg per sqm per pass. About 2mm per pass.

If we assume conditions that will allow 2 mm to freeze in 30 seconds then 4mm per minute = 240mm per hour = 5760mm (near 6m thick) per day could be made of 50m wide by 100m/s x 30s = 3km long  of icedyke by a mobile spray vehicle at 100m/s.

3000m x 6m x 50m = 900 000 tons per day of ice making.

A fleet of 50 working for 100 days therefore could make 5000 x 900 000 = 45 000 000 000 tons or near 5 cubic kilometers of ice.

if we are looking at an average needed to ground them of say 30m thick then 50m wide is cross section area of 1500 sqm.

5 000 000 000 cubic m / 1500 sqm =  3.33333 million meters or 3333 km.
Ball park figure of 1000kw vehicle power My estimates deem adequate to do this.

Very likely a rope mesh reinforcement would need to be floated on the water and anchored in place to hold together the dyke been formed. Doing this work in polynyas seems the best way, then towing into position of sections to be anchored and further thickened.
If 100 such vehicles were used you've got near seven thousand km of icedyke which could be enough for such a layout as this below.

For methane plume hotspots to the surface hexagonal tiles would need to be formed and towed into place if they are too rich for ice to form inside the rings in situ.

Stationary pumping systems might have too high costs per area in most places with limits of small volumes per pump plausible due to area feasible to distribute the water to, and ice layup rates. Though in saying this high cost is often seen  as a benefit for commercial interests. They can make more money doing it the hard way.

The purposes of kelp farming in the less methane emissive areas is as follows:
  • Biomass for biofuels and biochemicals of around 500 ton per hectare per year can be harvested.
    The growing kelp oxygenates the water to support consumers of methane and riverine fluxes of organic carbon.
    The artificial kelp forests provide habitat and food for a diverse and rich ecology of which fisheries and abalone/ mussel/ crabs / lobster etc farming potential.
    Unlike micro algaes the kelp biomass is easily harvested and so does not rot and anoxify the water at the end of summer.
    sedimentation rates and water clarity are vastly improved by the kelp forests, thereby improving albedo and enhancing natural carbon burial in sediments.
    Simple and low cost infrastructure only is neccessary to process the kelp locally into liquids fror low transport costs to refinaries for further upgrading.
    It would be easy to use the CO from an initial  biomass pyrolysis to convert methane collected nearby to methanol for easy low cost transportation.
    Combining these systems would allow zero carbon emmission liquid fuels via the energy component of the fossil methane and biomass being used as hydrogen and the carbon turned into biochar and hi performance bioglues and recyclable polymers, allowing further longterm  C sequestration by wood, biofibre etc component for  construction materials, also replacing high C emmission steel, concrete etc.
Aaron Franklin.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 16, 2017, 11:53:46 AM »
<snip. Way off-topic, and too long. I have the entire text of your comment if you'd like me to message it to you so you can edit it and place it in a more appropriate thread. JP>

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 11, 2017, 10:20:55 PM »

Attached is a Jaxa animation which uses the Bootstrap algorithm, which theoretically is much less sensitive to clouds/water vapor than the ASI method used by Uni Hamburg and Uni Bremen.

Event there some artifacts can be seen which should be caused be surface effects (e.g. rain/hail/sleet/snow).

The animation runs to the 9th August.

Looks like an Arctic Iceman sitting down on Greenland, laying his head back on SevZem, and waving us bye-bye. :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 11, 2017, 02:17:45 AM »
The halocline has all but collapsed.

Perhaps you could highlight on that ITP 95 T&S plot what you consider to be evidence for your assertion?

Had just been musing on the potential benefit of having a third profile contour plot to go with the temperature and salinity ones, namely, the water density profile. (Or could instead plot the gradient of the density.)

That should be easily derived from the information already in the other two and would show more directly where the density gradient was small i.e. 'halocline all but collapsed'.

Is that third profile contour ever plotted along with the other two?

That would be REAL nice wouldn't it.

If anyone could recommend  an app  I can download that can work with the matlab file types they provide the raw data in I wouldn't mind having a go.
Anyway Looking at :

The blue salinity 34 contour is well within swell mixing level of the surface and its only 34.7 at about 150m depth where the temp is up to 1.8 degrees.

Heres ITP 7 from 2007 for comparison. Reached Fram straight in mid September.

Here we have 33,32 even below 32 all the way to fram straight down to 100m
A layer that hasn't existed for a couple of years on the ITP record over 35 at the very bottom. Of very warm very salty water. All the early years have it. Not sure if its still there but deeper, or co-mixed now. But the 0C contour is down at 150m with lots of very cold stable above it.

I found  a salinity / temp / pressure  density tool here:
A few results. 1dbar is just over 1m depth:

Salinity 34.7,  1.5C 150dbar  =1028.477g/L,   1027.769 at surface
Salinity 34.7, 1.8C 150dbar = 1028.453,   1027.747 at surface
Salinity 34, -1.5C 20dbar = 1027.456 ,   1028.081 at 150dBar
Salinity 34,  -1.8C surface = 1027.368,  20dbar = 1027.464, 150 dbar = 1028.091

A 1/1000 to 1/ 2000 difference looks pretty unstable to my uneducated eyes.

Perhaps the ITP95 DO contours tell a better signature.
They have bottom to top upwellings solidly represented for the last month.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 10, 2017, 12:04:05 AM »
Meanwhile its 4.1C on the Antarctic Peninsular, and Raining. In the middle of the coldest month in Winter.,-85.14,822/loc=-63.535,-69.962

Would have put this in "whats New in Antarctica" but this happened last year too.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 09, 2017, 06:14:59 PM »
In the continuing absence of SeaIceSailor's excellent animations, here's the latest IMB buoy temperature profiles. I don't think 2017A is down to zero just yet! 2017B's floe is now below 1 meter thick.

Gosh that water looks warm. Isn't  2017b collocated with itp95? its not showing water above about -1.5 at the surface though the halocline has all but collapsed despite at 84nth 13.6east it is well inside the pack and barely moved in a week. With a big bundle of heat building from 75m down.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 01, 2017, 08:43:13 AM »
A larger than usual polynia is establishing in the "Laptev Bite".
Does anyone know what causes this polynya? Currents? What is the significance of it being larger than usual?

I Concur with Johnm33 that its probably more Atlantic Water making it into the Laptev. The tides may be involved but I think Wip's excellent earlier animation illustrates whats going on very well

The ice front pushed up against Svalbard, Franz Josef Land and the end of Sev'Zem' seems to be depriving the Atlantic water of the opportunity to slip off the shelf, and it looks from that animation that rather than sliding down the channel that you can see on the Bathometry on the Laptev side of the channel between SZ and the mainland:

Where last year a slice in the Ice opened above it in Wips Gif, this year it looks to be more strongly flowing, and in obedience to mr Coriolis, hugging the Laptev coast instead.

 Perhaps its less saline hence easier able to stay in the shallows, due to mixing with, from what looks like to me in the below image, an almost entirely over shallow bottom, Florida to Laptev melt-water front. This sort of scenario has been concerning me greatly for sometime. There's over 1500km of shallow shelf between the coast and the edge of the deeper basin where it can be more safely stowed past that point :'(

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 30, 2017, 11:47:05 PM »
<snip; N.>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 30, 2017, 11:21:55 PM »
    : NeilT  Today at 07:07:24 PM

        Very little in the Beaufort looks safe right now.

    Nice 15 m/s wind right now and staying like this for a while (Earth nullschool).

From that view, it looks to me like the ice on the Pacific side will compactify to the northwest and be  kept safer.  Are animations of low pressure systems misleading?

The most unsafe ice looks north of the Barents sea.

The 49km/h, 2.7C southerlies over the Nares strait look interesting...

Yes they are. Ice drift is considerably to the right of what direction the wind is pushing it. not sure how many degrees, something like 30-60 degrees if memory serves. I think theres formulae based on berg thickness, windspeed etc.
Could be a little compaction as it queues to get thru the CAA channels, but only real compaction possible looks to be against Sev Zem. Which is bad cause it seems to be making the hot Atlantic water build its current through the straight and along the Siberian arctic shelf, and probably freshen it enough to keep it on the wide, shallow shelf mixing zone.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 29, 2017, 12:52:37 PM »
There's less heat in the Barents Sea this year than last, but there is more heat entering the Arctic through the Fram strait, flowing into the Arctic on the north side of Svalbard than last year. That warm salty water is flowing along the continental shelf break below the cool surface water. SSTs do not tell the story on the Atlantic side of the Arctic because the warm Atlantic inflow is at intermediate depths.

I just came on line to comment (again) on that exact point. I've just spent the day downloading  all the ITP buoy data and charts, and comparing what they show changing for the last seven years in the state of the layered gulf-stream, Atlantic, pacific, and arctic surface waters. <snip, no one is saying that; N.>  But it does look to me very much what I've feared is happening.Buoys in similar location at this time as 95 north of Svalbard such as 37 in 2010 show a distinct deep saltier and hotter gulf-stream flow sinking of the shelf to 600+m depth. This seems to have occurred until the last 3 seasons, and now an increasingly co-mixed inflow of gulf-stream, Atlantic and surface melt is fattening and coming in directly under the fresher surface layer. Without as much evaporation or radiant heat disposal ability this water is six degrees hotter than last year where topography cause the currents to surface near Svalbard and FJL. We now have a full circle around the Arctic of continental shelf uncovered by Ice as a kill zone for floes flung out and a free for all mixing zone. the Pacific water is less than 25m down all round that end from Siberia to the CAA, where its not already fully mixing near the coasts. Not only does this mean all the oceanic incoming heat is remaining in or near the surface, but It stands every chance of lowering its salinity enough to fully mix away the entire Fresh Arctic surface water layer when the ice really loses all its peripheral extent a month from now. Mixing water of differing salinity also releases a lot of latent energy by the way. More melt-waters being exported than ice so its less visible, and other than cooling incoming surface air for a little while,which really is the only plus, it also reduces outgoing longwave and makes for damp fog that dews out everywhere on the Ice. We don't have thick chunks capable of clogging the CAA channels so they are venting melt and slush like never before, nor do we have remnant multiyear being hoarded in piles at the Siberian side. We have one Fat and Mixed slug of warm Atlantic water oozing in underneath to help flush out the fresh melt and river outflows, and hotter and more voluminous  Pacific inflow coming in with all it needs to maintain surface buoyancy layed on.
Heres the ITP95 and 37 comparisons, and tracks overlayed with sample periods matched up.  I've checked Every one and all show this trend. No more burying the gulfstream deep to soak away its heat into heavy rejected brine, and slip out quietly in the deep exit channel I'm afraid. Dont be confused by the changing colour codes either. These guys have been playing games with the chart colour scales and its been driving me nutso.

Should not be neglecting the prospect of abrupt isostatic rebound events. The huge volumes of fluid water and carbonate rich magma underlying the fringes of the continental shelves allow very big and abrupt uplifts, and trench block subductions when you lose large coastal ice mass. This is probably why lake Titicaca is full of oceanic species and remnant salinity with isotopic ratios identical to the Pacific. there is a tilted tide line down both the Andes and coastal range from Titicaca to the south that suggests the 12000ft high Altiplano was a gulf open to the Ocean to the south and all the indigenous people of south America tell of a massive uplift and Megatsunami sometime in the last 20000 years.
Very plausible for Greenland too. you go into a climate flip when suddenly its no stop heavy warm rain on Ice sheets, they will reach a level of soggyness that will allow cascade slumping all around the fringes.The Agassiz  burst event or events were probably slush slump rather than an actual subglacial or ice dammed actual lake. I'd be very concerned about Greenland as a priority once the Arctic loses its halocline and floods with warm Atlantic and Pacific waters to the surface. Torrential rain nonstop in winter on Greenland and you got maybe a week to get well inland and to decent altitude. And worldwide cascades of Storegga style underwater landslides would very possibly be triggered. Rapid ice loss probably triggered THAT one.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 11:54:12 AM »

a flooded floe, 1st year since it still holds together under water. Happens pretty commonly on rivers. (funny thing but you can still safely walk on this if you are a republican.)

But you can make out the disturbance of the ships track in the background. It looks slushy enough that its just being pushed out of the way by the bow-wave, then swirling around and closing up again behind the ship?

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 11:48:15 AM »
Been a couple of interesting readings in the last few days on the ITP95 charts, the buoy Nth of Fram strait co-located with 2017B. Shes basically drifted due east 10 km in the last 3 days since the 24th July update to now 84.9N 8.76E on the 27th. Inset on the sentinel hi res image are 20x20km worldview tiles of the exact spot on the 27th, small one unadulterated and the larger with as much detail as I could wring out of the fog. The big Sentinel image is as close as I could get a clear shot, from the 25th and goes to 83 nth and 7 east. Should be pretty similar Ice conditions I would think.

I've put a frozen pic of what I commented on a few days ago here too for those who seem to really want it.

Anyway. Seems to have been an upwelling of low oxygen water from 1km+ depth. And perhaps a small rise in the salinity associated. Perhaps a slight temperature boost towards the surface and fattening of the warm strata, but difficult to say it was a contributor.
Then soon after there's a big down spike in the temperature and salinity contours, particularly at about 150 to 200m. About a 30m downwards excursion.
Are the two associated? Is this an ekman pumping vortex, or some other phenomenon? Has a plume of more saline water risen, perhaps methane, or hydrothermally  driven, then cooled and descended.
I've been pondering if another mixing factor could come into play, around a certain floe diameter, perhaps optimised in the couple of hundred meters to a km range, when open water is surrounding floes like these. If the bottom is salty, and melts at -1.8 or so as with recently formed ice that's concentrated its brine at the bottom of the floe. And the water around has risen in temp a bit due to a bit of insolation and air interaction. Perhaps a bit of fresher warmer surface melt adding to it, aided by the humidity condensing on floes thin enough to be conducting the energy to their base which is pegged by salinity to below zero.
Wouldn't there be a tendency for water to sink under the flow, and draw in more water from the periphery to replace it? Is this plausibly a significant mixing process in a poorly seasoned FYI ocean state like we now have? This floe has registered twice as much bottom melt as top melt.
I guess that the open water areas being in the order of a km there is plenty of opportunity for wind induced surface movement, chop, and turbulence anyway.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 01:11:01 PM »
Strewth! I have a knowledge archive that includes several million images that I have right clicked and saved over the years, and several hundred times in the last couple of months I've done this and attached them to posts on this forum. And I'll thank you not to insult my German ancestry too! My great grandmother was kept in a labour camp here in NZ till seven years after WW1 because her parents came from Hamburg in the 1860s. I have muslim yugoslavian ancestors, also Dutch, Scottish, Welsh, English, Northern and Southern Irish with Spanish from the Armada involved there too. Most of my ancestors were born in great wars, and sodded off down here to get away from bricks through the windows cause they married the enemy. Can we lighten up a little?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 12:15:40 PM »
Cupla Gifs from some playing around looking for decent Sentinel imagery from the 24th.

Doesn't seem to scan further nth than 82 degrees, but some of the resolution is pretty impressive. big mixture of image qualities and contrasts.
First is north of CAA and Nares, second north of Svalbard, FJL, and SevZem.

We've got raised beaches all round NZ at about 30m above sea level from the Eemian. And none of our ships could handle stormy seas that can throw house sized boulders 5km inland and 50m above sea level in the Bahamas likes supposed to have happened from that Abrupt Greenland melt and the North Sea storms resulting. I kinda think a coastal species like us naked apes would have noticed a little Deconstruct.

reading back through the thread I was reminded of the microcat sensors of itm5 which were placed at 79N last August. What I don't understand is the change in pressure, they all seem to be at lower pressure, 10 dbar less than a year ago. This might be that somehow they are sitting less deep in the water or does anyone have a better explanation? Temperatures have risen at all 4 sensors which isn't explained by a change in depth (if that is what happened) because temperature is higher at greater depth.

that is very odd looking. every single one of them looks like its risen more than 10m in the water by the pressure change and all at the same rate. Maybe the cables got all twisted up and tied itself in knots near the surface, giggle. Or someone mistook it for a fishing line and tried to pull it up to see if anything was hooked on it. Or had ideas about recovering some copper for the scrap metal dealer. ;D

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 27, 2017, 09:53:20 AM »
Wow Jim! that 2.5m thick stuff in peel sound sure looks solid. (red square)
Especially compared to the 1.5 m stuff in Larsen. (red circle)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 09:05:26 AM »
No one is offended, but you could also try to download the image (right-click, 'save as') and then upload it to the forum (click 'attachments and other options' and then 'browse' to link to the downloaded image file).

Danke Schoen Meine Fuehrer!
Dis ist Korrect, Yah!
I did not realize I could do that.  ::)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 03:42:57 AM »
Obuoy 14...

Don't think those are meltponds anymore. Thats gotta be sea level. Looking at the temp and humidity around 95% for the last week at least its been constantly dewing water vapour and dumping latent heat into that slush. raising the temp to zero C all the way to the bottom. The buoys been rocking and rolling so it can't be much thickness left anyway, and those "ponds" all look the same level and rather dark.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 03:15:52 AM »
Here is an animation of some reasonably cloud free frames between Svalbard and the pole 17-26 from worldview. And stills of the 17th and 26th, and a wide from Greenland-Sval-Pole from the 25th to show the location. Despite north-east drift it looks to me that a fair bit of the smaller slush melted out between the larger floes opening up water area, despite general compaction.
The big Floe is about 30km diameter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 01:38:52 AM »
Is there any chance you could refrain from linking to live ITP plots in future? Whatever point you are attempting to make will become even more difficult to discern as the days, weeks and months pass.

Sorry if you fin it offensive. I've put a comment on the post in red with the day to reduce the confusion. I kind of like being able to check on how things are unfolding without having to go to the buoysites personally. The temps and salinity still seem to be fattening fast especially upward in the Atlantic layer. And the surface has now spiked in temp.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 26, 2017, 02:10:49 AM »
Looking at 2017A and 2017B's melt rate graphically: 2017A, located in the Beaufort side of the CAB, IMHO should finish melting in 1-2 weeks. It is ~350km deep inside the pack but in a region of 75% concentration on the Bremen maps, a region which might disappear quickly if the buoy's floe is typical.
2017B between the pole and Fram seems like it could survive the season with its current melt rate. It is now ~300k deep inside the pack, at a region of 75-100% concentration. It is moving south at an average ~35km per week (highly variable), and its melt rate might increase sharply if it encounters Atlantic waters.

Yes, well itp95 is in the same place and its showing a significant rise in Salinity and temperature. [moving images, comment made day 206]

Also big plummet in dissolved oxygen suggests upwelling from depth.

I make it about here and its looking very loose and vulnerable to me.
Remember that the gulfstreams been deprived of its ability to evaporate water vapour and lose heat because of lack of Atlantic hurricanes last year, and being under a lid of fresher meltwater since off New York. Its probably hotter and fresher than we've ever recorded before and may be much more buoyant than anyone is expecting.
Second image about 150 by 300km

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 11:37:13 PM »


ID Code: 300234063536320
Date: March 9, 2017 - Present
Type: SIMB
Initial Location: Beaufort Sea
Deployment: UW-WARM Array
Co-located Instruments: 50m WARM Buoy, Side Kick Web cam, ICEX Drifting buoy, SVP

Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):

Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/24/2017):

Pos: 76.99 N, 150.75 W

Air Temp: -1.9 C
Air Pres: 1002.7 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/24/2017)

Snow depth : 0 cm
Ice thickness : 38 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)

All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 33 cm

Ice Bottom Melt : 43 cm

Status of Instrumentation:

All Sensors reporting
A couple Spurious Snow depths after snow on 4/14/17
Many bad Sounder Readings after 7/5/17

A week ago:

Ice thickness : 56 cm [down from 79 in week to 17 july]
Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 30 cm
Ice Bottom Melt : 32 cm

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 11:31:37 PM »

ID Code: 300234062836680
Date: April 10, 2017 - Present
Type: SIMB
Initial Location: Central Arctic
Deployment: Barneo - WHOI
Co-located Instruments: AOFB, ITP 95, Ice-T

Conditions at Deployment (4/10/2017):

Snow Depth: 2 cm
Ice Thickness: 169 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/24/2017):

Pos: 84.83 N, 7.77 W

Air Temp: -0.5 C
Air Pres: 1011.4 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/24/2017)

Snow melt : ALL cm
Ice thickness : 124 cm

Since Deployment (04/10/2017)

Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 21 cm

Ice bottom melt : 45 cm

Results from a week ago were:
Ice thickness : 142 cm [down from 155 in week to 17th july]

Since Deployment (04/10/2017)
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 14 cm
Ice bottom melt : 36 cm

Whether or not there is melt holes around these buoys. One interesting thing I noticed on their page was the historic data from all the previous buoys showed more surface melting than bottom melt. This seems to have changed. And it dosn't look so much like there has been less surface melt than historically. Its just we are getting more bottom melt now. I suppose with hotter and less saline gulfstream and pacific waters coming in than ever before, and the surface of the Beaufort gyre showing every sign of collapse to a anticlockwise rotation there must be significantly more subsurface heat available.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 10:30:07 PM »
Regarding thin smoking paper.
Some clearer images just out in the last hour from Terra modis of the Nares strait, north of Greenland to north of Ellesmere Island.

This Piomass bank of 3-4m thick ice, our bestest most likelyest to survive of all?

Its not blue /grey from meltponds, its so thin you can see the sea thru it and is melting right out before it makes it 100km down Nares strait.

Its a slurry of salt ice slush and floating snow with a few old remnants embedded in it.
And its starting to flush through all the CAA channels.

Looking like we are already below all previous Sept volume minimums.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 24, 2017, 07:30:52 AM »
Well, both hycom and polarportal seem to think these Buoys were in thinner than the average Ice thickness in these areas of floes and rubblefields.

If this is not because they are in particularly puny Floes then we have less ice volume than perhaps even the 5000 cubic km less than piomass says, that one of our chaps Calculated a couple of weeks back from one of these thickness products. Particularly since about half the extent area seems to be slush and rubble.

Losing a third of its thickness in a week to the 17th, I won't be surprised if 2017A in the Beaufort is ice-free by now a week later.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:37:36 AM »
I don't know where if anywhere to find the sensor string data. But:

Date: March 9, 2017 - Present
Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):
Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/17/2017):
Pos: 76.84 N, 152.71 W
Air Temp: -2.4 C
Air Pres: 1019.1 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/15/2017)

Snow depth : 0 cm
Ice thickness : 56 cm [down from 79 in week to 17 july]
Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 30 cm
Ice Bottom Melt : 32 cm

[seems this one gained 33cm of ice after 9 march, then lost 62cm]

Date: April 10, 2017 - Present
Conditions at Deployment (4/10/2017):
Snow Depth: 2 cm
Ice Thickness: 169 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/17/2017):
Pos: 84.91 N, 4.99 W
Air Temp: 0.2 C
Current Ice Observations (07/17/2017)

Ice thickness : 142 cm [down from 155 in week to 17th july]

Since Deployment (04/10/2017)
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 14 cm
Ice bottom melt : 36 cm

[seems this one gained 23cm of ice after 10 April, then lost 50cm]

Status of Instrumentation:
All Sensors reporting well

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 03:49:48 AM »
Yeah TT that gives a much more approachable view of what we have overall. What pixel size on worldview did you start with? 1km? 5km? Or have you smaller blocks with the full 250m available resolution?
We could start a thread where volunteers  team up with territories assigned, archive frames, and just clip the visible areas out for each tile . Then layer those. and perhaps cheat a little with a bit of clone brushing to fill in the holes.
Its pretty easy with the Lassoo tool and control and shift keys on my oldschool paintshop pro4 to do that. Dunno about others apps.

tried a few of psp tools on it. Only thing I could do that might have brought out a little detail thru the clouds was max the colour saturation and a slight contrast boost.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 02:44:04 AM »
Nice pictures Veli. Darn that stuff looks translucently thin.

Further to my above analysis of Gyre and halocline issues.

Wipneus great Gif of the Kara 6-21 July borrowed from the Homebrew thread. You can see the drift repeatedly pulsing eastward and spiting chunks south to the right at the coast by watching the features. An effect visibly here operating deep into the pack.

And A-team has a great pic of 20-25 July Ice drift forecast on Piomass thread. showing the pattern thats been in effect for some time now, preserving extent on all the peripheries, while the more mobile meltwater is evicted thru the CAA and Fram.

Basically the Extent and Area figures have been getting held up by a pack repeatedly exploding outwards, while it covers the basin with an increasingly fragmented field of smaller and smaller floes and chunks of slushier and thinner and more dispersed rubble. Its primed for a crash with the first big cyclone, or even with a few little ones.

Take a good hard look at the salinity charts for ITP95 from pole to 85 sth of Svalbard, and ITP97 across the centre of the eastern basin.
There is really only 25-50 m at most of a little fresher water on the surface left. And only a few percentage points of salinity below the stuff underneath it. Its primed to form a cohesive layer hundreds of metres thick incapable of freezing in winter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 12:15:37 AM »


Contrails like those you spotted are common in the high Arctic and often show up on worldview. Sometimes they form X patterns, other times they are 1000+km in length. I know of no source that assesses the environmental or weather impacts of Arcticcontrails. If posters are aware of linkable articles on Arctic contrails, I'd be much obliged for posting of such links. I'm not here speaking about the conspiracy theory links. Those are easy to find.

I wish They'd send us some Pics. It looked like a military formation to me.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:54:45 PM »
The lows don't protect the Centre of the pack if the Ice drift in the Beaufort is anticlockwise as they promote dispersion. If the Clockwise gyre is fading near the surface or thinner ice incapable of feeding on its current then the pack is being wind driven anticlockwise and everything wants to fling itself outwards. While the lows continue to draw in warmth and moisture from far away.

The loose stuff that's survived melting out as its flung out in the ESS and Chukchi for example has been pushed into the Beaufort.  The melt-water main exit route is down the Coasts of Greenland, and through the CAA Which has Just mobilized in all channels. And  and the big SSTA anomaly south and west of Greenland is the Evidence.
Note the Big push of hot gulfstream along the western coast of Russian Arctic, and the below normal temps from the meltwater being flung at the coast past where its got to.
And in the Chukchi how the Pacific inflow is accelerating and pushing along the nth Alaskan coast, while meltwater is being flung against the Beaufort coast in the corner against the CAA.

People hope these wider spread cooler surfaces will protect the central pack, but they stop the heat being released from the incoming stuff below. And the central pack is being shredded and opened up with more bottom melt and more surface area exposed to air and water and more mixing of near surface air and water. The claim that lower average temps over the pack are Evidence to promote theories that the Ice is in a recovery year, while it is actually Evidence of increased energy being taken up by Ice melting and more exposed and more turbulent water in active rubblefields.

The Halocline is disintegrating by enhanced Ekman pumping from surface drift in the opposite direction to the warmer waters below. And increased warm inflow and fresh melt eviction.

And that big plug of low density warm water that I drew attention  to above that's been pushed down in the central eastern basin, due to the high pressure core effect of a clockwise gyre? Its becoming Increasingly FREE to bob up like a cork and melt and disperse the central pack in a big flushout from below.

As for the effects on the Beaufort Gyre and Ice.

Much as I appreciate your thorough analysis and accompanying graphics, I'm having trouble piecing it all together.  Yes, the Arctic is in for considerable heat and moisture advection from the Pacific.  But won't this be mitigated by the lows protecting areas of the central ice pack?

That which is there will all be flinging itself out through the CAA and down both coasts of Greenland ...

I don't see much indication of this in the next week or so.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 02:11:08 PM »
The Typhoon autogun in the Pacific and the effects on the Beaufort gyre dynamics have been giving me a very sick feeling in my gut the last 24hrs. It looks very ugly indeed what is unfolding.
 First Animation:
 Total Precipital Water and surface winds,
 Winds at 1000hpa,
 Temps and winds at 850hpa,
 3hr precipitations of 6mm over the the outer CAA and 850hpa winds,
 and total cloud water simular to the record flood last week in Japan nth of Barrow with 700hpa winds.
 This Junks looking to continue for some time with south and west winds from Norway to Chukchi to Greenland coastal. If not dumping lots of water vapour into the basin, its making hot foehn winds off Europe, Siberia, Alaska, the CAA, and Greenland. And pushing warm Pacific and Atlantic waters in at accelerated rates.

As for the effects on the Beaufort Gyre and Ice.
The Eastward surface drift from all these Westerly's, is and will continue to disperse the loose fringes and fresh meltwater to the right, de-consolidating the pack and exposing the meltwater and river Fluxs to rising salinity by mixing with the inbound waters they are riding over above the shallow continental shelves. Bottom structure and Methane venting will enhance this of course.
First frame shows:
- Along with Pacific end SST anomalies, marked where the spreading meltwater is butting up against the still eastward moving pacific waters east in the ESS and a strong and large mixing vortex in process. These are popping up all along the meltwater front and the Strong inflow through Bering has in the last few days swung from heading in that direction to straight ahead towards the pole sliding down the slope under the Chukchi front, to bending to the east and heading for the CAA along the shelf instead.
Second Frame:
- SST of 10.7C on strong inflow Thru Bering just mentioned. Mixing Vortexes even clearer. Clockwise rotating Pacific water bending northward as its sucked under anticlockwise rotating melt and debris intent on escape from the pack and heading south, you gotta expect them.
Third Frame:
- 1.72m swells eastbound, against current, into the Beaufort pack and CAA. Slightly bigger ones actually heading straight north into the pack from Bering in the Chuckchi.
Fourth  Frame:
- Track log plots of ITP buoys 97 in the Beaufort and 95 at 85nth heading for Fram.
Fifth  Frame:
- Observe the deep core of fresher water penetrating the hHalocline surface to depth in the lefthand ITP 97 plot. Deep mixing events on its fringes. This the Gyres "flywheel", a large reserve to maintain the Halocline, in the middle of the Canadian basin. Not much disturbance in the Temperature plots above it. A little warming and thinning  of the Gulfstream Layer it penetrates from energy extracted as its feeds have punched through. About 0.5 degrees warmer and around 1% saltier than the Layer above the Atlantic from about 300m to 50m from the surface. Though recently the surface temp has spiked to just below Zero as we've noticed on the Buoys thread. ITP 97 seems to be in the fringes of the pack where the deep Gyre ramps up the Alaskan slope Right about in the middle of this
Frame 5, today's worldview shot.
-ITP 97 right about in the middle.
Frame 6 shows the westbound current coming up here at 0C.

So anyway, the Gulfstream water that has been surfacing at 15-16C around, Svalbard and FJL, and just loves to hug the right by the Right Hand Rule of mr Coriolis North.
 Should it not meet Pacific, and surface stuff head on at Severnaya Zemlya thats Westbound as traditional in a high pressure dominated Eastern Basin. Keen to take it by the hand and ride it out off the shelf into the deeper basin...
Perhaps Gulf Snake will be fresh and warm enough to climb on top, or even socialise a little with Pacific eel. Assisted by big late snow-melts and an open Russian coast, and a slide beneath a few thousand km of fresh melt pool south of Norway.
With a largely Low pressure dominated east with a reversing Gyre, and Cooler inbound stuff from a full or partial anticlockwise deep salty racetrack that it can team up with and python coil the heart of the Ocean.
Then instead of a big reserve of low density fresh pycnocline pushed down in the middle of the eastern Basin.....
 That which is there will all be flinging itself out through the CAA and down both coasts of Greenland , as the Turbo Pump from both Oceans swirls all around squeezing it out from below.
I'm deeply worried that this is starting already. :-\  ???  :P


Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 22, 2017, 02:55:50 AM »
It has a bit. We have just lost a lot of rubble melted out between fram and the pole. There looks to me like a fairly large loss in the thickness of the overall fresher layer. And a ridging up of salinity to depth. Possibly just its location.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 22, 2017, 02:34:48 AM »
I like what you are attempting.  I would 'wish', somehow, that the larger floes (maybe 10-20 percent of total area, depending on size criteria) could be made entirely ice-white.  Right now, they are all melty-black speckled, some approaching half-black.  I think this exaggerates how advanced the melt is.

Yes, this is a very valuable contribution. But Hyperion should not push the contrast too hard. I have a lot of experience with Photoshop and alike: These images after all are pretty low resolution 8bit – there's a point of no return where you loose more than you gain (which, by the way, somehow fits our topic here  :o).

Sure. this was just a couple hours of trivial experimentation. It wouldn't be too hard to code a custom filter that did a pass where pixels that were surrounded by high luminosity ones were translated as pure white on a second image. If you tiled it you may be able to estimate rubble concentrations by luminousity comparisons with coherant nearby floes. You could probably also use hue and luminosity to mark melt ponds. It'd be nice to scan terra, aqua, and suomi imagesets with an algorithm that compared their infra red bands to automatically pick out holes in the cloud cover, and combine all the visible windows from the three. But by the time we got very far with it there would probably be no Ice left to look at. ::) Be lovely to be able to estimate total floe area, meltpond area, rubble area for the whole arctic,  and by building up a picture of the whole basin over 1-2 weeks, tracking floe movements .... Lots of fun. But perhaps putting the energy into damage limitation might be better. This year or five from now is big trouble for all life on earth. We know its going. We need to be putting brakes on it and working out how to get it back. Much harder than if we'd acted rather than ostriching in the first place. But Doable.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 22, 2017, 02:15:58 AM »
Youch!  I've just been watching on  Nullschool the two westernmost Pac Typhoons merge into a real whopper off Japan on the 25th. We've already been seeing inch per day rain in the last few days Nth of the CAA. And I'm estimating incoming water roughly equally coming in from Atlantic and Pacific ends of around 10 cubic km a day. Thats been releasing enough latent heat to melt 100 cubic km of ice. The reason we haven't been seeing a view of areas with lots of slushy rubble is the fogbanks condensing from all the heat transfer that the slushy state can provide. a lot of the heat warms air and rises of course. And before escaping at altitude it forms ice cloud that is very very bad for ice preservation because it lets most of the solar energy come in but insulates outgoing longwave very well. Simularly with large droplet size in fog and thunderclouds This whole cycle is self reinforcing as the more updraft and high altitude exit, the more low level warm air and moisture comes in. Only when most of the slush disappears from around the more resilient floes, or where there is a decently compressed pack is the capacity for thermal transfer low enough for us to expect to have clear skys. People keep hoping that all the clouds will preserve the ice. Its faster to boil a potato than to bake it. And faster to steam it than boil it. Water vapour at or below boiling point is a very effective heat transfer vehicle to colder objects. The Area receiving insolation at in the arctic ocean is puny compared to what it can draw in heat from with a slushy salt-ice heat sink to attract it.
And the southerly's in Fram are very bad with this over 15 degree gulf stream water surfacing there. That waters submerging about as far south as Spain, directly south of Greenland. It may even be less Saline hence lighter for its temp and easier mixed with the polar surface water than we are used to. Sliding under the nth Atlantic melt pool as it is there is bound to be some mixing and energy exchange.

Check out the Super-Bar claw marks nth of Greenland. About a km apart and 100km long. The Polar bear god getting grumpy?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 10:02:28 PM »
And the rest. If Piomass or Hycom or whoever are counting lots of volume between Svalbard and the pole then They've blink and missed it. This stuff is auguring. Like the Russian and Pacific front also. The rubble fields between the floes that we there everywhere 3 days ago are largely open sea now. Probable around 0.5 sea the rest floes and rubble in the above and these Svalbard/ frams to pole below.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 09:54:09 PM »
Clockwise from the East Siberian sea to the CAA. Filenames are fairly explainatory as to exactly where. No Images on the most packed region off CAA yet but best peeks thru the clouds since 17th.
21st July:

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 21, 2017, 01:21:46 PM »
I've been fannyin around with attempts to group what little visible stuff there is on worldview into saneish buckets to give a bit of a grip on what actually is there under the clouds and limited resolution of microwave data acquisition processes.
No scientific repeat-ability here. completely at the mercy of what image enhancement and bias I might have a whim to invoke in trying to filter out clouds and weight the value of slush between obviously coherent solid bergs. What relative value should I try to impose on slush fill between them? Heres an example from 85 nth last week in a mostly gap in the clouds at about 85 nth of fjl. I grayscaled. upped contrast and brightness and after experimenting with this a few times settled on a heavy handed sharpening filter to avoid losing all the between floes slush. Bucketing binary fashion into ice and not is obviously cheap and nasty and neither consistently repeatable in any sort of comparable fashion. Or reputable as any kind of standardized method considering the huge variability of cloud fog and slush density and thickness you gotta look at. So pure experiment really. and a n excuse to play with the rasp-pi and risc-beeb-basic that i was always jealous of my early eighties mates who had the  fortune to be equipped with. Damn I forgot how finicky and resource limited computers back then actually were. I haven't coded for years and memory and processing speed are like trillions of times what I used to enjoy. Anyway. any attempt at a fair count on reasonably clear images is getting me between 15 and 30% coherent floe area. The rest ranging from undeniable open water to slushfields of highly speculative chunk-size, density and longevity.
IMO generous concentration figure from this relatively heavy handed but imo fairly balanced mauling 0.415. and recognizable floe area here and everywhere else I've spanked with this ham 15-25%

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 03:01:27 AM »
I also have this feeling that holes could start to show up in the ice pack real fast, once they get going. But for now, this year isn't looking anything like 2016, 2015, or even 2013. Here's a comparison using Uni Hamburg AMSR2 sea ice concentration maps:

Whats been driving me quite bananas over the last few week is how rare it seems to be to get anything but a few tiny gaps in the clouds to see what the ice really looks like. And whats been most teeth nashing of all is that its been so darned unlucky that these few and far between gaps found by any of the Nasa cameras are by some mysterious phenomena of nature almost always only found over spots where these concentration maps show a few nibbles less than 100% concentration.

I guess for some reason the sky are always cloudy over good secure well packed Floe Fields.  ::)
So anyway, best I can find is comparisons between 19 july 2016, 19 August 2016, and 19 July 2017. In the area polewards of Severnaya Zemlya.
But then I realised to my great Joy that I had an app available that in less than 5min could almost completely overcome NASAs inability to see through clouds! ;D YAY! descent into madness averted! ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 09:13:03 PM »
ITP95, at 85 north roughly between Svalbard and the pole appears to be experiencing some mixing in the last week. Near surface Salinity rising, Temp dropping in the 50-80m range. Looks like some halodecline may be occuring from the waves penetrating the pack.

Bit of a drop in Dissolved oxygen here too. Has to be rising Hypoxic deep water surely?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:29:15 PM »
Wow. Largely compacting wind conditions and solid cloud cover, yet big purple blotches showing dropping concentration all through the heart of the pack. And 360 area and 240 extent in 48 hours.
So much for clouds preserving the Ice. If all those Typhoons in the Pacific start lobbing themselves into the fray it might get very messy indeed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:04:41 PM »
The Pacifics looking interesting. 8 hurricanes beaded from Japan to Panama. Quite a lot for this early in the season. Greedy looking settup dragging all the tropical air from Africa to Mexico and throwing it up the Asian coast. Looking at the 250hpa jets the polar jet has thrown out an arm and hybridised the second one from the left already. Bizzare cross equatorial backflows south at that level also.

850hpa with MSLP, and 250hpa with TPW

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 12:20:37 PM »
Well I make it somewhere about here. Some 5-600km offshore. Probably the riverine hypothesis as a stab in the dark. Might be the dirty fresh is nosing in between the deep Atlantic and shallower pacific warm layers, and dropping organic sediment through the deeper stuff thats consuming the oxygen, before surfacing. Wild guessing game really. Still could be methane from the pile of muck stacked by plate movement against the shelf. Mostly dissolved at depth. Fizzing and bubble expansion as it nears surface. So less disturbance of the Atlantic warm and salty than the Pacific layer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 11:35:39 AM »
Hey. who knows? we've only got one buoy that to be honest is providing data difficult to trust with the huge discrepancies between down and up logs. If its using the pretty standard halogenated aluminium opto-fluorescence  DO sensors they are usually very reliable and provided they are not starved for water flow (can't imagine such engineering incompetance personally) should only have a lag of less than a minute to respond to changes. Is it possible that a big subduction zone thermogenic methane plume is consuming all the oxygen, without disturbing the halocline massively? IMHO more plausible than an actual hydrothermal upwelling. And I just can't see how any current interaction with a 3km deep bottom could produce a signature like this. The only other possibility that I can suggest is its a cold fresh meltwater pulse from Alaskan rivers that has let the sediment mass settle out of it, become more buoyant, mixed, warmed, and consumed the oxygen from the water its rising through by breaking down its dissolved organic carbon burden as it surfaces. Velis giant beaver phenomenon. I've been meaning to get a hires bathometry chart and overlay the Buoy track. Maybe in the morning. If there's a canyon  outflow from a major Alaskan river descending the slope there this could be it. We have a submerged 3000+km long river system called the Kaikoura canyon in NZ that was carved by ice age sediment laden glacial melt outflow that leaves the east coast of the south island and has been traced to 2500km nth east of the east cape of the north island over 4km deep on the abyssal plain. Huge canyon maze thats crawling with giant squid where it drops off the continental shelf. Such things can happen.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 05:20:32 AM »
A fair amount of rain lining up with warm 850 mb temperatures today.

Yer. And quite heavy over the best stuff we got north of the CAA too!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 05:14:24 AM »
Heres a look at the Atlantic side 2015,2016,2017. SSTs and currents

To me there actually seems to be more gulfstream inflow this year than the two preceding. And definitely a lot more meltwater eviction down both of Greenlands coasts. and a substantial cold meltpool establishing this year to the south and east of Greenland also. Its interesting to see the ramp up of temperature from 8.7 to 9.2 to 15.8 degrees in the warm blob next to Svalbard.
Hansen 2015 warned about the danger of the meltpool south of Greenland. predicting that by covering the gulf-stream it could produce a world wide global warming effect up to ten times as much as our current greenhouse gas overburden. By reducing its ability to radiate heat away into space. If this effect is kicking in, then we might have an explanation for why there appears to be a lot less ice nth of Svalbard and Franz Josef Land than Piomass is claiming. Theres been persistent southerly's there for a while now, and waves created by them up to 3m spanking the ice in the vicinity. With the fragmented pack they are capable of penetrating perhaps 100km into the ice, and if gulf-stream waters are lurking below the cooler surface then considerable heat may be attacking the ice from below due to mixing processes. That meltpool also seems  effective in pinning a low pressure system to itself and with the high pressure stalled over western Europe, the southerly's have been and look to want to continue winching all the air and humidity all the way up from the Caribbean and gulf of Mexico.
Click to animate.

Pages: [1] 2 3 4