Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Shared Humanity

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 70
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 02:57:45 PM »
Let's hope that PIOMAS comes out with mid-month update so we get a clue about the damage.

I agree with both Neven and Friv that 2012 will be extremely unlikely to beat this year. IMO, that's not the real important thing whether we beat 2012 or not. Remember that 2012 strongly diverged from earlier years by the beginning of August when the strength of the sun is quickly vaning in the high Arctic. And it quickly refroze that fall. It's more concerning that we are getting open seas in (April) May and June, especially over deep seas, that can suck up tons of energy from the sun and delay freezing by fall and winter. I don't want to guess what kind of weather we'll get after next strong El Nino. Then we'll be in serious trouble!

I agree.

It is fun to watch the horse race to the annual minimum but the degradation of the Arctic ice is a long process and I find it far more interesting to watch this happen. The Bering has been opening up earlier and earlier and the effect has been to warm the waters so much through added insolation that it did not really freeze this past winter. This process is occurring in the Chulkchi, Beaufort, ESS and Laptev as well. The longer these seas remain open water, the more heat uptake. The freeze will occur later and the ice will be thinner after the subsequent freeze. Winter max for volume is the measure to watch IMHO.

Look at these peripheral seas in the basin. All are at or near their all time minimums for the date. These seas are melting out earlier and earlier and warming dramatically as a result. Even the CAA is near its minimum for the date which is due to the increasingly early clear out of the Amundsen Gulf which is more an extension of the Beaufort than it is a part of the CAA. This rapid melt in the CAA will slow dramatically as the straits will not melt out as quickly.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 02:47:26 PM »
I'm in the 'unlikely', but not in the 'extremely unlikely' camp as of yet.
Wow that is saying something. Neven is usually the voice of restraint telling the newbies not to get carried away with our expectations.

How is "unlikely" getting carried away with his expectations. His expectations are that a new minimum is not going to happen.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 15, 2019, 08:55:41 PM »
You have to give LL credit. He is at least self aware enough to post his comments on this thread.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 15, 2019, 08:52:53 PM »
Isn't this why we are here, learning new stuff? :)
No, I am learning how to pontificate about things of which I know very little or nothing (trainee politician).

You're not doing a very good job. You should stick to something you're good at like delivering hard facts and observations that we can digest and discuss.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 15, 2019, 08:47:31 PM »
In my experience, the people who now say that we can't do anything about it are the same who 15 years ago said that the world wasn't warming and 10 years ago that is wasn't caused my humans.

If you are going to be wrong, you might as well be consistently wrong.

6
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/



Every year ...

I have a very specific way of dealing with this that works for me. When new people start posting, I read every comment very closely. It is usually easy to determine whether they have much to offer (on topic?, insightful?, probing questions?). For those who have little to offer, I just slide past what they write but will occasionally skim a comment to confirm it is not worth reading. Several here have now slipped comfortably into that category for me. You will know you are there when I never respond to anything you write.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 15, 2019, 08:24:38 PM »
The MSLP of the cyclone currently spinning over Severnaya Zemlya was down to 976 hPa at 06:00 UTC this morning

Now 974 hPa:

Some pretty tight isobars directing ice into the Barents.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 07:55:28 PM »

Area is dropping, which most probably indicates less ice is present.  Extent is growing, which means that ice is being more widely distributed through the seas.  It follows that this spreading ice is more likely to melt out even faster in the coming days and weeks (as the distributed floes come in contact with waters that have not been precooled by the melting of adjacent floes.) 

So this gain in extent, if it is real, is a warning sign for the future, and an ominous one.

I agree with everyone here. We are looking at a cliff.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 07:47:54 PM »


There is no way that there is more ice in the Arctic than there was two days ago.

And increases in SIE does not tell you there is more ice in the Arctic. It tells you that this ice is spread across more water.

10
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 13, 2019, 10:04:56 PM »
A record number of records is a statistical slam dunk.

Just wait till it's a record number of record number of records.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 13, 2019, 03:09:22 AM »
    The video in Uniquorn's post shows the Nares Strait as a nasty leak shuttling ice out of the Lincoln Sea at a rapid pace.  Since Nares opening was early this year, that makes me think that overall export is an increased source of ice loss this year, and may be disproportionately removing what little 4 and 5 year old ice was left.

The Nares was never officially closed IMO.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2019, 02:57:02 AM »
How about if everyone stays on topic and talks about 2019 sea ice area and extent data? If you think this comment is directed at you, it probably is.

<Exactly! N.>

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 12, 2019, 11:34:31 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

This is the melt season. Doesn't look good but we will need to wait and see.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 12, 2019, 11:30:18 PM »
2012.6.12-2019.6.12 which one is worse

2012 shows more melt ponds while 2019 highlights the increasingly fragile nature of ice in the Arctic.

15
I'll leave this thread open, for as long as the solar stuff doesn't go in the wrong direction, but given that a link is posted to a paper from 1921, I'm moving it to the Arctic Background category.

Christ! 34 years before I was born. All of the scientists involved in the research are long since dead, I presume.

The most relevant reading to help us determine a proper approach to this research would be...

"The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" by Thomas S. Kuhn

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 11, 2019, 02:49:26 AM »
Piomas ice anomaly for arctic for May 2019; crazy how you can see the effect of the ice stacking up on Svalbard, Zemlya Georga, and the October Revolution Islands.

What is the opposite of feeling warm and fuzzy?

What those anomalies demonstrate to me is the incredible mobility of Arctic ice as compared to the Arctic we used to know. The positive anomalies are racing for the Atlantic.

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 02:36:29 AM »



Aside: Accusations of trolling and denial do not advance the discussion. I reply in another thread.



While I have some suspicions about the motives of some who comment here, it serves no purpose to argue. Present your argument, backed up with links, and move on.

I agree with SH.  If we disregard sound science, in favor of social action, we run the risk of appearing just like those who ignore the consequences of climate change.  If you put forward an argument that cannot be backed with sound science, you are no better than those who you are trying to condemn.  Worst of all, the public will view both arguments as extremism, discounting both as folly.  If you truly wish to confront the social problem, then stick to the facts (there are plenty of them).  Every time you present a projection that fails to materialize, you are placing another nail in your coffin for your opponent to hit.

You say you agree with what I said and then compose a paragraph proving the opposite.

For the record and in the interest of full disclosure, what you have just done here is what causes me to be suspicious of the motives of some who come here.

18
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 01:34:04 AM »


Aside: Accusations of trolling and denial do not advance the discussion. I reply in another thread.



While I have some suspicions about the motives of some who comment here, it serves no purpose to argue. Present your argument, backed up with links, and move on.


19
Thanks Niall. With the consistent early and strong melt of NH snow, we better hope we don't have a poor fall and early winter snow or we are in serious trouble.

20
@Stephan
I think it may have something to do with periodicity of calving or the changing speed of the glacier or a known period after some artifact? What suspence!
I doubt you are doing anything dirty Espen.

Espen has a close friend who hikes the glacier dropping small, remote controlled IED's into crevasses which Espen detonates by hitting ctrl F7.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: June 09, 2019, 06:03:10 PM »

Moreover, there is simply no place on Earth where you can safely store huge amounts of carbon:


Um...Plants?  :o

This statement is so stupid that I cannot even......for...fear...of losing...my shit...and going totally...over the line...and...I...don't...want...to...be...abusive.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 08, 2019, 11:00:43 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 7 June 2019 :    21,168,865  km2

Back to what's happening this year


Awww.... I was beginning to enjoy those graphs with no data points.  ;)

23
SH,
I believe you have just documented a phase change of water quality from this glacier. As far as I can recall, I have never seen a plume of sediments like that before. It is by all means a reflection of the heavy melt, which has plaqued the western slope of the Greenland Ice Sheet this year since April.

Thank you.

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: June 08, 2019, 07:59:07 PM »
The last refuge for a doomed people is always fantasy. This thread is as good as most.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: June 08, 2019, 07:50:15 PM »
The whole endless growth based economic system might have to change, but I have never heard a credible idea how to pull that off.

BAU will impose a very credible way of doing just that. Nature always has the last word. Her methods may seem unnecessarily cruel but they will prove to be highly effective.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 08, 2019, 07:32:24 PM »
Yup, but how to reach these who could mitigate easier and faster than most?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0402-3

SAM's?

27
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 08, 2019, 07:11:15 PM »
'Which vacation spots could be permanently damaged by global warming?'

Not high on my list of concerns...

28
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 08, 2019, 07:01:06 PM »
Has about as much chance of doing that as the last large floe which is next to no chance.

29
Rutgers nh snow cover extent for May 2019 was 17.06 million km2

A negative anomaly of just under 2 million km2

Much of western Canada and western Siberia was below normal with the only anomalously large area above normal being southern Quebec.

Looking at the downward bar trends for 2019 a negative anomaly of -3.0 million km2 looks on the cards for June.

That chart clearly shows that the trend towards large positive NH snow anomalies in the late fall and early winter due to the increase in atmospheric moisture will be consistently followed by large negative NH snow anomalies in the spring due to the onset of rapid melt driven by increased NH temperatures. Four straight years of this behavior is more than coincidence IMHO. What did the 1st five years of this decade look like?

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 08, 2019, 06:35:14 PM »
still a lot of surface snow on some of the ice.

31
As the flow exits the fjord, is the light color of the water extending outwards all brash ice or is it also due to sediment?

32
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: June 08, 2019, 06:26:55 PM »

My prediction that belonged to me (that has been OK so far) was that there will be more days of SMB loss but becoming much closer to the average daily SMB change.

That prediction looks likely to be another one for the rubbish tip.

That prediction was spot on IMHO as there was a significant stall in SMB loss. The oncoming melt simply exemplifies the impact of short term weather.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 06:16:36 PM »
Since melt ponding is dominating, appropriately I might add, this conversation, I thought I would link to research that explains the creation of and persistence of melt ponds, even on thin, briny FYI.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JC011994

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: June 06, 2019, 09:39:38 PM »
There are other ways of dealing with intermittent power. My brother owns a cabin on 30 acres in rural Wisconsin. He has a contract with the utility that allows them to cut off his power for up to 8 hours when demand requires it. He pays slightly less for his electricity in this contract.

35
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 06, 2019, 09:28:01 PM »
My wife worked nights in a level 1 trauma center on the near west side of Chicago during that 1995 heat wave, one of 3 such centers in the city.

People started being transported to her hospital in a trickle. They had no idea what was about to happen. Within 24 hours they were getting between 5 and 10 per hour with core temperatures in the low 100's. They would put the bodies on ice and start transfusions. These people would be throwing clots all over their bodies with organs shutting down. Most died.

She would come home from work completely exhausted.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 05, 2019, 09:59:08 PM »
I've often wondered about the dramatic drop in variability in the anomalies in the decade between 1997 and 2007.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: June 05, 2019, 07:28:53 PM »
Quote
The maximum is -0.14 / yr, and neither is significantly different than zero.

Your characterization of the maximum is plain wrong. The maximum has kept a steady decline , significantly higher than zero, even when there is much less thick and easy ice to melt.

The maximum has kept a steady decline not because there is much less thick and easy ice to melt but that there is far more open stretches of water that has taken up additional heat from the sun to freeze.

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 04, 2019, 07:08:22 PM »
@Shared Humanity

In defence of Greta and youth-playing-videogames. I think you are making a big generalisation there and Greta and others (we are talking about other humans!) should rightfully feel insulted. If it was a joke then I didn't see it, sorry.

It was a joke. There are some people up thread who dismissed the "Extinction Rebellion" movement as naive. These people are looking at the problem as clearly as anyone. I am amazed by the bravery in this young woman.

39
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise Projections and Maps
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:50:17 PM »
Thanks.

40
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:49:05 PM »
Atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing and the rate of increase is increasing. This will continue for several decades, I fear.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html

41
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise Projections and Maps
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:39:00 PM »
Maine law is taking SLR projections seriously:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12237332

You say "Maine law is taking SLR projections seriously:"

And then link to an article that has this title.

"Climate change doomsday report predicts end of human civilisation"

Was the link a mistake?

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:30:02 PM »

This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.


I have felt for some time that Tesla is headed for bankruptcy. Would never consider investing in their stock. Having said this, the hard work that has been done will not be wasted as the assets will be purchased and EV's will still be produced.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:25:42 PM »
One person at a time.

Start with yourself. Take a stand with friends and family. Let it go viral.

That's what Greta did. Follow her example.

Exactly. When I owned a home, I set my heat at 62F in the winter. And we had no air conditioning. Were we hot in the summer occasionally? Yes, but it was summer for God's sake. Was it chilly in the winter? Yes so we dressed accordingly.

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:20:45 PM »
I have maintained all along that the quickest way to dramatically impact CO2 emissions is on the individual consumer level.

But how do you get a billion consumers to all voluntarily conserve less?

You don't. You merely get everyone who is concerned about AGW (there are hundreds of millions) to understand how they can do this. And you start with yourself. My car no longer moves on weekends and I have now developed a habit of stopping to do what I need to do on the way home from work. I have virtually eliminated meat in my diet. Eat meat at most twice per week. Still eat eggs and dairy.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:19:20 PM »
BenB...I do agree that we are very near or have already arrived at peak coal consumption. I hope that we start seeing a rapid decline in consumption.

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 04, 2019, 05:34:48 PM »
I have maintained all along that the quickest way to dramatically impact CO2 emissions is on the individual consumer level.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: June 04, 2019, 05:26:15 PM »
After increasing 1% in 2017, worldwide coal consumption expected to increase again in 2018.

https://www.iea.org/coal2018/

48
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 04, 2019, 05:20:47 PM »
However, the slower planting season appears to have had little impact on the annual corn crop.  1990 was fairly ordinary, but the other four were unusual.  Both 1982 and 1995 witnessed record corn crops.  1983 and 1980 resulted in dismal harvest, but both years came with summer droughts, which reduced the crop.  We shall see which path 2019 takes.

All things being equal, late planting does negatively impact yields.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/05/late-planting-and-projections-of-the-2019-us-corn-yield.html

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: June 04, 2019, 04:59:09 PM »
Nice graphs.  However, I question your trend lines.  Both the max and min were decreasing fairly constantly for the first decade.  However, both max and min have been flat over the past decade.

This is consistent with the observation made by Crandles that there was a state change in 2010 when the Arctic lost a ton of volume (the thickest ice) which was not fully reflected in the extent numbers. Since 2010 we have been in a relatively static condition where FYI is created each freeze season and melts out each melt season.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 04, 2019, 04:44:13 PM »
Another one of A-Team's superb animations from the test space thread.

Yikes! Looks like the thickest ice in the CAB has been racing for the exit (Fram) since last fall.

How is the mobility of the ice captured in this animation compare to previous years?

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 70