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Messages - Shared Humanity

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Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 09:03:18 PM »
My guess would be that many of the countries now reporting increases in cases due to community transmission actually now have thousands, if not tens of thousands, infected.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 08:44:01 PM »
oren, nice to hear that I'm not the only one watching this closely :)

Wild speculation--there seem to be cases now stemming from Iran where no connection to China can be established. Could this be the result of an independent jump from animal to human in Iran?

--Much wilder speculation/observation--what countries are the US's biggest threats economically (trade wars anyone), and militarily (very recently on the verge of a new 'hot war')...?? Hmmmmm--

Iran has extensive business ties with China. With such a long asymptomatic incubation period with some cases, I expect this is simply that community transfer has been established in Iran as a result of travelers from China. Would not be surprised if Iran numbers look like South Korea shortly.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 08:23:13 PM »
One more thing: the Diamond Princess, full of elderly, reports 634 infected and only 2 dead. If this was as lethal as you think, then we would have at least 50 but rather 100 dead there already. Almost all of them are 60+ and many are 80+!

And whether intended or not, this ship is a perfectly controlled lab experiment. The testing is exhaustive, the numbers are accurate, the ships passengers are generally wealthier and older and I doubt they are hiding bodies in the boiler room or tossing them overboard.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 08:10:57 PM »
Sam, I think your mortality numbers are too high. We clearly need to differentiate between the numbers of Hubei province and all others.

Clearly, Hubei can not and does not count all cases, and only severe cases are counted. We know that even very sick people are not accepted to hospitals and not tested and they are simply told to go home and self-quarantine. Ergo, there are many more infected in Hubei than currently calculated. So Hubei numbers are useless. We need to use numbers from outside of Hubei, and not surprisingly those are pretty much similar to each other but are in stark contrast to Hubei. Nowhere has anything close to the calculated mortality of Hubei!
If we take the dead to recovered ratio, it is 15% in Hubei but more importantly, 1,5% everywhere else. This means two things:

1. The number of infected is underestimated by a factor of 10 in Hubei, so cca half a million people are infected there

2. The true mortality rate is likely 1-2%

It is like the Spanish Flu

Thank you. I tried to make a similar point earlier but did not do it effectively. I agree. The mortality rates are much lower than what has been discussed here as many cases go unreported and the patients recover after mild symptoms. Many of the reports of evacuees indicate that a large number of those who test positive have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 20, 2020, 05:12:24 PM »
Mission summary: WHO Field Visit to Wuhan, China 20-21 January 2020

Link >>

Vox, perhaps your sources are shit and this is the reason i don't read your posts anymore.

Who you going to believe...some random source or WHO? ;-)

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 19, 2020, 04:49:58 PM »
The death rate from the novel coronavirus has risen to 2.67%, based on today’s official figures from China. That’s based on 2,010 deaths worldwide and 75,199 confirmed cases.

The rate was thought to be around 2%. I’m not an expert in infectious diseases but that figure is growing.

I believe that death rate is way overstated and, in the final analysis, we will discover it is much lower. Minor cases in China and elsewhere are simply not being captured in the statistics. My guess is there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese who contracted COVID-19 and they only have mild cold symptoms before recovering fully.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 19, 2020, 02:22:59 AM »
Existing confirmed cases 57886 down 211 on yesterdays 58097.

Was 58097 the peak?

Existing confirmed plus suspected cases now 63134 down from peak of 65920 4 days ago with 4 consecutive falls totaling nearly 2800.

Severe cases still going up but that is to be expected, they are likely to take longer to cure so likely to peak later.

good news...

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 18, 2020, 08:42:06 PM »
Coronavirus ‘lab leakage’ rumors spreading
Ebright said the coronavirus was a cousin of one found in bats captured by the institute in caves in the southwestern province of Yunnan in 2003, and that samples had been kept in the Wuhan lab since 2013.
Also, a paper that appeared in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet at the end of last month has lent credibility to speculation about the origins of the virus. The paper quoted seven doctors at Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital as saying that the first patient admitted on December 1 had “never been to the wet market,” nor had there been any epidemiological link between the first patient and subsequent infection cases, based on the data from the first 41 patients treated there.
Furthermore, a note from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology is seen as a tacit admission that some kind of incident may have occurred at the Wuhan lab.

You know, people, this is probably a natural mutation and species jump. Probably.
But China has a history of disinformation, and is reluctant to allow outsiders in Hubei. It is a known liar acting like it is lying. And they have the technology to create such a virus. They have a motive...they are a rising superpower. And the origin was right at their top virus lab.
And in the Thirties, if we make it, we will have to wonder about biohackers as well when this happens again.

Please stop posting this stuff.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: February 18, 2020, 07:19:48 PM »
Southeast FL is screwed.

Things that Florida residents can look forward to as their sewage systems fail.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 16, 2020, 11:39:24 PM »
Are the positive ice anomalies showing where freezing rain is occurring instead of snow?
I think "ice" refers to sea ice.
should have put that in stupid questions thread

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 16, 2020, 08:53:18 PM »
Are the positive ice anomalies showing where freezing rain is occurring instead of snow?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 16, 2020, 07:11:54 PM »

Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?

The latter IMHO but there are others here who can offer more.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2020, 07:08:55 PM »
Here's the latest update of "Snow White's" novel "near real time" Arctic sea ice volume metric:

Please note that there is a known problem with the NRT data from January 31st onwards.

Wow! Just wow! Given that volume is the most important metric when measuring the long term health of arctic ice, this chart is scary.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:58:45 PM »
Wyoming lawmakers proposed a bill this week that would have penalized utility companies for using renewable energy sources to supply electricity to ratepayers.

We are too stupid to avoid extinction. My only regret is we are driving a huge number of species to extinction as well and they have done nothing to deserve their fate.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:49:47 PM »
Officials stressed it was a fire, not an explosion.

ExxonMobil refinery in Louisiana catches fire

"The orange blaze illuminated the sky and frightened nearby residents but plant officials said there was no impact for air quality."

They consider us idiots.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:16:27 PM »
My pleasure. And thank you for all your many insights and perspicacity on these threads!

Had to google that word...

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:08:38 PM »
Plastic bags can still be used for a few things like uncooked meat, fish, and poultry.

NY's plastic bag ban is coming: Here's what to know about the stores, the charges and the changes

How did we survive before plastic bags? I'm old enough to remember fresh meat being wrapped in wax coated paper.

Plastic bags are simply in existence to support our hormone and antibiotic infused, nondiverse, factory farmed, meat products.

And I use the term "meat products" intentionally as the chicken you find in your local supermarket has little in common with a healthy chicken.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:02:25 PM »
Explain to me how something that has occurred throughout history (locust plagues) can suddenly be blamed on climate change.

Actually, if you would simply read some of the linked articles, you would have your explanation.

The insects behind the mayhem are desert locusts, which, despite their name, thrive following periods of heavy rainfall that trigger blooms of vegetation across their normally arid habitats in Africa and the Middle East. Experts say a prolonged bout of exceptionally wet weather, including several rare cyclones that struck eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula over the last 18 months, are the primary culprit. The recent storminess, in turn, is related to the the Indian Ocean Dipole, an ocean temperature gradient that was recently extremely pronounced, something that’s also been linked to the devastating bushfires in eastern Australia.

Unfortunately, some experts say it may be a harbinger of things to come as rising sea surface temperatures supercharge storms and climate change tips the scales in favor of circulation patterns like the one that set the stage for this year’s trans-oceanic disasters.

“If we see this continued increase in the frequency of cyclones,” says Keith Cressman, senior locust forecasting officer with the Food and Agriculture Organization, “I think we can assume there will be more locust outbreaks and upsurges in the Horn of Africa.”

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 05:30:32 PM »
Thank you wili for that link...

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 05:06:38 PM »
Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”
I thought that once you recover from a virus you are least for a long time.
The reason you keep getting colds and flus is because there are dozens of different varieties of these diseases.
Am I wrong, or is Covid-19 mutating so fast?

Is it possible that while the meds are dramatically reducing the viral load in the patient, they are also suppressing the patients own immune system? They then release the "recovered" patient only to have the virus grow rapidly again in the now immune suppressed patient.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 05:01:28 PM »
It is also easy to imagine people deciding they are better off hoping to recover without help than seeking help such that the figures don't show the picture at all.

Place yourself in China with conditions that are being reported. Your local hospital is approaching collapse with patients not getting the care they need. You can be damn certain I have decided to care for my sick mother at home as I have quite logically decided her chances rise dramatically under my attentive care.

I will bring her to the hospital only if she suddenly appears to be at death's door which accounts for the very high percentage of serious cases reported and death rates from those serious cases. My guess is that hundreds of thousands of Chinese are fighting mild cases at home.

This is actually very good news as it will ultimately reveal that the deadliness of this disease, while high, is overstated.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 04:53:49 PM »
One upshot for Americans is likely, though: Even if the worst of the outbreak is over—and it might not be—bad economic news may well be in our future.

...and it might not be...

Might? We are seeing evidence of local community transmission in countries all over Asia and additional evidence of seemingly isolated, unconnected cases just popping up in far flung regions of countries. Meanwhile we have a sudden surge of seemingly healthy people spending small fortunes getting the hell out of Dodge and flying to far reaches of the planet. This thing is far from over.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 04:44:45 PM »
Thank you Sark, the secret mass cremations story was clear rumor-mongering, but it's good to have actual information about the issue.

As is the crap that the new coronavirus escaped from a lab in Wuhan where China was attempting to weaponize it.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 04:39:04 PM »
“There is the possibility that the infection may have spread to people well beyond the groups of patients who have been identified,” said Koji Wada, professor of public health at the International University of Health and Welfare. you think?

Given what we already know about this virus, attempting to identify everyone infected in order to quarantine them is futile and a waste of valuable resources. Certainly, medical officials should explain that self quarantining is useful to avoid transmission to family members but the focus needs to shift to care for those infected.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 04:17:51 PM »
Quote from: SharedHumanity
... There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede. 
Can you share a peer-reviewed reference to qualify that opinion ... otherwise your creating a distraction that is going nowhere.

"Comparative studies of ethnically diverse human populations, particularly in Africa, are important for reconstructing human evolutionary history and for understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic adaptation and complex disease. African populations are characterized by greater levels of genetic diversity, extensive population substructure, and less linkage disequilibrium (LD) among loci compared to non-African populations."

This is not surprising as the modern human has spent far more time in Africa than the relative short space of time on the rest of earth as humans left Africa and spread rapidly across the planet. So, when people say something like "the genetic diversity between races", they are talking out of their ass and it says far more about themselves than science. I would strongly suggest this discussion talk about genetic differences between subgroups because race is a social construct with no meaning or proper role in scientific discussions.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2020, 07:17:03 PM »
I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.

As my alter ego has just pointed out over on Twitter:

In due course the "phenomenal winter warmth" from Storm Dennis will reach the  North Pole:

Warmth has been intruding into the Arctic from western Russia for much of the winter. My guess is the Chukchi, Laptev and Kara Seas are going to have a bad melt season.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 15, 2020, 12:24:32 AM »
Thread is becoming increasingly useless to read...I'll get my news elsewhere...carry on.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 14, 2020, 11:36:45 PM »
Sadly, there is no expert that you can post that will say that races are equal when it comes to medicine. Not scientifically anyway. There are differences, small as they may be.

Sorry. There is no such thing as race. It is an artificial construct that has no basis in science. You are focused on phenotype. There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 14, 2020, 11:02:00 PM »
great webinar!

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 13, 2020, 08:15:18 PM »
And this is happening with a polar vortex on steroids and the Arctic Oscillation in an all-time, record-breaking maximum. What gives? Textbook says the Arctic should be very cold and the ice pack  expanding.

If you simply read gerontocrat's comprehensive post, you will have your answer. Fluctuations are normal this time of year.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 13, 2020, 03:32:51 AM »

I hope that the April/May predictions are correct, but Australia is already reporting multiple cases & it seems possible to me that this could play between both hemispheres for a very long time.

A number of expert epidemiologists have said this new coronavirus is here for good. It will join the 4 other known coronaviruses that infect humans which are responsible for 25% of all common colds.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:46:05 PM »
LOL, why would it need my approval, Bluice? I don't understand.

If the question is about what's better, the western fake democracy or the Chinese fake communist system, then i say both are shitty in their own non-charming ways.


Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:08:52 PM »

North Korea has not reported a single case of coronavirus infection, although nearly 200 virus cases have been confirmed in the Chinese provinces of Liaoning and Jilin that border the isolated nation.

Daily NK, a Seoul-based news service with informants in North Korea, reported Tuesday that a dozen coronavirus patients have been in quarantine at a hospital in Pyongyang, citing unnamed sources inside the country.


Having closed borders and being isolated from the rest of the planet is of benefit under these circumstances.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 05:23:13 PM »
and now the good news:

If a pandemic is avoided, we can all thank the Chinese.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 05:21:51 PM »
This is how this game is played. Some see behind the bullshit, some think those are enhanced execution devices.

This person is a lunatic...conspiracy theories run amuck...defies logic...

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 05:19:40 PM »
The Western Hemisphere is a bullshit Eurocentric concept.

Really? I'd say it's Americentric, as most of Europe lies in the Eastern Hemisphere (even most of the countries 'west' of the former Iron Curtain do)

Perhaps but the idea still has no merit. The NH and SH have reasons to be called such.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2020, 04:55:16 PM »
Thanks again for the updates...a must visit for me...

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 10, 2020, 09:31:06 PM »
So Trump is totally unaware of the fact we live on a planet that has two hemispheres with alternate seasons....
Not unexpected for a Kiwi as we often get left off world maps.
Lucky you!  Apparently (from the map), there is no pandemic in N.Z. and Antarctica.   :)
And New Zealand is at the top of the United Nations flag, so be proud!

Only two hemispheres?  I have lived, at various times, in the Southern Hemisphere, the Northern Hemisphere and the Western Hemisphere.  Does anybody talk about the "Eastern Hemisphere"? (An internet search claims 1.3 million hits.)

The Western Hemisphere is a bullshit Eurocentric concept.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 10, 2020, 07:30:32 PM »

... “Notice how the coronavirus cases we’re seeing abroad are in the settings of the rich, such as cruise ships and ski resorts and business conferences? That probably means cases are going undetected among the poor.”

It also means that the wealthy who are traveling all over the world are the source of the spread to other countries. We need to quarantine the rich.  8)

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 10, 2020, 07:13:09 PM »
Given the rubble of small icebergs along the side of PIG, I think PIG may have lost contact with the southwest tributary forever.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 10, 2020, 07:03:10 PM »
an animation of the PIG between 2003 and 2014

It is not a coincidence that calvings have been occurring where the PIG meets the southwest tributary.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 09, 2020, 10:47:55 PM »
I would just like to make the observation that there were, at most, only a handful of people on the planet that were aware of this calving before we were and that says something about you guys.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 09, 2020, 10:24:58 PM »
This brings me to another point, because I found the nomenclature system we agreed upon (R0, R1, R2, R3, Cork and Cork II) very useful. Therefore I take this calving event as an opportunity to invite the followers of this thread to agree on a further rift numbering system.
I propose to follow the numbers, R3 is still present, and to number the future rifts R4, R5, and so on. This makes communication and explanation of actual events much more easily.

What is your opinion?

Give the rift a number that incorporates a date R090220?

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 09, 2020, 10:17:52 PM »
Thank you guys for following this with such intendity and insight. This has been one of my favourite topics during the past weeks.

Any guesses how the situation will develop? Stabilization to the new calving front or further collapse?

If you look closely a these animations, I think you can see that the large portion of the glacier behind the obviously calved portion has also calved. Will become much more obvious in the next week.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 09, 2020, 10:14:57 PM »
Seeing as how the cork received a shattering blow in the process, it would appear that it did have some stabilizing role on the edge of the big iceberg. It's notable how the cork managed to mostly stay in place despite this blow - perhaps it is more attached in its other sides than would appear to be from the sat images.


Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: February 09, 2020, 09:47:44 PM »
That's a really useful graph, bk. Personally, I will not be surprised if the thin purple crosses the X-axis sometime before 2050.  That is, the human death rate will overtake the birthrate and the human population will begin its inevitable decline.  This will be a momentous event in the history of our species.

This would require regions of the planet to experience horrific mass deaths and I do think this is possible. (famine, war etc.)

Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: February 09, 2020, 07:37:43 PM »
I second Oren with the thanks. Tracking these atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases is the single best way to measure the adequacy of our efforts to avoid catastrophic warming. You are doing this site a service by providing these updates which serve as a context for discussions on many threads on this site. The numbers are not good but necessary.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: February 09, 2020, 06:14:52 PM »
Reimagining Ourselves and Community

Anthropogenic Global Warming is arguably the most serious threat to human civilization ever encountered. In large part, I am pessimistic as to whether we will be able to avoid its worst effects due to the fact that any real concerted effort to address the problem is contrary to very powerful interests. These interests are very public in their arguments against taking any radical action. They work to minimize the seriousness of the problem while simultaneously playing to the fears of ordinary people (I consider myself to be one of these.) by emphasizing the damage it will do to the world's economy. They argue that it is absolutely necessary to sustain the existing growth system which supplies the material wealth that most of us seek. This conflict between our need to immediately take massive and quite disruptive action while simultaneously sustaining the system mirrors the conflict within each of us. We want to address the problem of climate change while still achieving the growth needed for us to accumulate wealth. I consider this conflict irresolvable, this dual purpose unachievable.

The problem, for all of us, rests with the simple fact that the current growth system, the modern industrial economy which spans the globe, is the root cause of our problem. We have been destroying ecosystems across the planet, a destruction that is occurring at an accelerating pace. We all know this. We all work within the existing political structures to minimize this environmental damage in our own backyards but we are unwilling to accept that the problem is systemic.

The solution is also systemic in nature. We need to jettison the existing growth system. We have the necessary technology to overcome this existential crisis. We also have the necessary resources if we immediately bring them to bear on the problem. What is lacking is the political will. Our failure is one of imagination. None of us are able to imagine a method of interacting with others which does not assume the continuation of the very system which will guarantee our destruction.

I am not certain we will be able to overcome the fear that paralyzes us all. We must all agree to take action that would appear to not be in our best interests. But our concept of self interest here is too narrow, focusing only on our material well being. It ignores what makes us uniquely human. The revolution must originate in our minds, in our concepts of self, community and happiness.

Chicago is know for its Lake Michigan shoreline, a continuous stretch of parks and beaches. They are taking a beating. Entire beaches have disappeared this winter.

No, he's banned.

He said some very very stupid shit and Neven had enough.

It's too bad it had to be that way. He was a lot of fun at times.

In an early November record breaking cold snap in the U.S., he stated that this was clear evidence of the beginning of a regional ice age that would become more generalized over time.

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