Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - miki

Pages: [1]
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 19, 2017, 05:37:35 AM »

Had the Industrial Revolution not happened, it still would have caught us eventually.

Yes... but it would have taken far more time. And, who knows...
We gave it a good acceleration and an inexorable outcome.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 18, 2017, 05:22:44 PM »
Things are getting hot and almost 5°C anomaly forecasted
While SST anomalies are high on the Antarctic continent itself they are mostly zero to -ve offshore, i.e. where the sea ice is. This may be why sea ice extent loss is still moderate.

Can that also be because ice is melting over there, causing the temperature to cool and the anomalies to zero?

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 11, 2017, 07:56:19 AM »

Trump is a lousy president. At this point he's still a long-long way from the worst.


For how disgusting the moron and his whole presidency is, I do have to agree with you, Terry.
Wow. Me European finds that mindboggling. You 'merricans seem to have sunk deep in your mental standards.

Martin, I AM European. And I can talk to you for four hours, twenty minutes and 45 seconds in a row about how disgraceful the Republitard party has been/is/will be - after that amount of time my mind just refuses to spend more resources on it.
But still, for now, about the moron, I do agree with Terry.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 11, 2017, 06:15:36 AM »

Trump is a lousy president. At this point he's still a long-long way from the worst.


For how disgusting the moron and his whole presidency is, I do have to agree with you, Terry.

For now, Trump it's just the end of the sleepwalking la-la-land in which so many americans live. A kind of sudden awakening. Ten years that I live here in the US and finally for the first time I see my neighbors fellow americans appalled, ashamed and worried. Still wondering how this happened. Why, I could have told them hundreds times since I landed here! But would they have listened. You know, I have an accent :-)

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 09, 2017, 04:37:49 AM »
Thanks Cid_Yama, for the interview and the paper links. I had already read the interview. But I had yet not delved in all the implications of the paper. Again, thanks.

I really thank you, JCG, for opening this thread. Since this summer I was thinking about the causes/consequences of the slowing of the melting in the Arctic.
More troubling to me, the causes/consequences of the cooler Atlantic side. Water was quite cooler on the east side of Greenland this summer for a while. My constant question being, where the heat is going?

I watch at Antarctica in a similar way.

I find always useful to come back, from time to time, to the good 2015 paper of James Hansen at al.
Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2°C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous.

For what I understand, during the melt phase, increased extent of Antarctic sea ice is assured, with "amplifying feedbacks in the Southern Ocean that slow Antarctic bottom water formation and increase ocean temperature near ice shelf grounding lines, while cooling the surface ocean and increasing sea ice cover and water column stability." What happens to Arctic ice seems less obvious, due to the slowing (stopping?) of the AMOC and therefore of ocean heat transport towards the Nordic Seas.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 16, 2017, 01:08:28 AM »
He cannot change, Martin.
If he tells anything different than that the whole real estate market in Florida starts crumbling.

Florida governor remains unsure about climate change after Hurricane Irma
“Clearly our environment changes all the time, and whether that’s cycles we’re going through or whether that’s man-made, I wouldn’t be able to tell you which one it is,” Scott said after twice touring the storm-ravaged Florida Keys this week.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 14, 2017, 02:49:41 AM »
Ditto. It is weeks that I'm thinking quite the same thing.

I don't think the planet cooled so much as the heat got stored. We probably will find this to be true when it shows back up when we least expect it.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 09, 2017, 01:00:16 AM »
Sigmetnow, really thanks for all your posts.

Here is a link to the last post on Arctic News by Sam Carana. He mention the relation between Sandy hitting New York and major earthquakes hitting the coast off Vancouver in 2012.

I don't think an association between tropical cyclones and earthquakes has been shown statistically, but maybe it should be revisited....

Mexico hit by 'strongest earthquake in a century' as magnitude 8.2 tremor triggers tsunami waves

How strong is Hurricane Irma? It’s registering on earthquake-detecting seismometers

Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: September 03, 2017, 08:14:15 PM »
I thought I would drop this here. Business and government will have to adapt, after all.

Nature Geoscience‘s publishes ‘Acts of God, human influence and litigation‘ – a report, co-authored by Earth & Water Law Partner Lindene Patton, which looks at how developments in attribution science impact legal foreseeability of extreme weather events and the duties of built environment professionals, business and government in the face of a changing climate.

"The science of extreme weather attribution is improving rapidly, and is making important predictions about future weather events.  This means the legal duties of those responsible for keeping people, the built environment and the natural world safe are changing too.  Identifying the human influence in events once only understood as ‘acts of god’ will reshape the legal landscape, meaning governments and businesses could be sued if they don’t take action to protect people from floods, heatwaves and other foreseeable climate change risks."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 02, 2017, 06:09:33 PM »
Tropical air on train-tracks to the Arctic.

And that storm western Hudson Bay, that yesterday wasn't there...

I promise you the next Glacial maximum kills 90% to 95% of all humans on the planet when it happens.

I may recall you, that we made it through the last glaciation. I sincerely doubt we'll perform that well in the hotter world ahed. And that's all I have to say about that.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 05:02:28 AM »
WDS, I think a good start could be Paul Beckwith. A climatologist with a good way of explaining things clear. A link to his tutorial on Harvey.

The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 26, 2017, 03:34:14 AM »
Are the Alps melting?

"Bodies Missing for 75 Years Found—Thanks to Melting Glacier"

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: August 24, 2017, 03:52:44 AM »
Future energy, present jobs. And no, it's not the US.

China Builds 24 Billion Watts of Solar in Just Two Months as Trump Attacks Renewables and Defends Coal.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 22, 2017, 09:15:42 AM »
Or perhaps the heat is going in the water, the extended ice soup being the lid. Thinking of 2007 september minimum... I wonder if we'll dodge the cannon ball next year...

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 20, 2017, 08:35:17 PM »
Antarctic daily temperature anomalies have been on the positive side almost everyday since July 23.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 18, 2017, 05:55:53 AM »
As VAK was saying a while ago:,1834.msg125402.html#msg125402

The explanation for the current Laptev polyna is here: Even back in early 2000's when the Laptev Sea to north area was covered by very strong MYI, there appeared a tunnelling water current beneath sea ice that weakened it from that line. The sea ice began splitting down from the riparian deltas across the sea all the way to Canada. I believe that the shallow Siberian sea bed may also have additional subterranean rivers transport of water which takes water north. It could also be the collision of riparian discharges to saline oceanic water that causes turbulence that extracts heat from underlying warmer water source. Even a very thick and hard MYI could not prevent ice weakening and breaking in this area in 2000's, so the Laptev polnya isn't a miracle.  ;)

Does anyone have an explanation for the Laptev polyna? Considering how mobile the ice appears to be, I'm surprised not just that a hole would appear way off in the pack, but how persistent it is.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 13, 2017, 06:19:50 PM »

I presume that Hillary is largely used in this thread (about the Trump Administration & Russiagate) as a metaphor for the establishment & its corporatism; which some seem to think Trump was elected to smash.  People who think this way should ask themselves way hasn't the Trump Administration pressured the UN to end its continuing declared war against North Korea (this war has been in a truce status since the 1950's), and why is Trump threatening North Korea with fire & fury.  The truth is that Trump would prefer to replace the establishment with a new kleptocratic establishment driven not only by greed for corporate profits but also by greed for enrichment of the powerful at the expense of the weak.

In this regards see the linked article about how Trump rescinded pending rules designed specifically to fight against fossil fuel driven kleptocracies:

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 13, 2017, 06:06:32 AM »
A New Zealand helicopter pilot fighting enormous wildfires in Canada says everyone works in an ''apocalyptic twilight'' amid the worst conditions he has experienced in 25 years.

"In my experience and that of the pilots here, we've never seen anything like this.
''This fire will be going until the first snow, so once the weather conditions physically change into fall or winter, that's when the fire will technically be over.
''There's just so much of it, what we're doing right now is just trying to contain it."

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 06, 2017, 08:58:32 PM »

In the separate matter of the VIPS memo to the President, I'm skeptical.  They report on the analysis of July 5, 2016 copy/hack *metadata*, when Assange announced he had Clinton-related emails on June 12, 2016.  The conclusions don't make sense from the material presented.  So I'm skeptical that the memo is genuinely from "Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)."  Perhaps the illogic in the document is why it's not been reported in the MSM at all.

Overall, the picture is that there almost are no reliable facts any more, and precious few reliable sources.  Rather scary.

Indeed. Especially when looking into the past of some of these VIPS. Take this one, for example:

Larry C. Johnson is a former analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. He currently is the co-owner and CEO of BERG Associates, LLC (Business Exposure Reduction Group).

According to The New York Times, Johnson is “best known for spreading a hoax… in 2008 that Michelle Obama had been videotaped using a slur against Caucasians”.[1]
War crime accusations against John Kerry[edit]
In 2013, Johnson falsely accused John Kerry of war crimes in Vietnam, alleging that Kerry had “raped some poor Vietnamese woman.”[17] To support his claim, Johnson used a YouTube video[18] that contained audio clips from a 1971 debate on The Dick Cavett Show between John Kerry and John O’Neill. The original interview[19] audio[20] was altered to piece together words that Kerry spoke at different times during the debate, falsely making it sound as if he said, “I personally raped for pleasure.” When the falsehood was exposed by a reader of Johnson’s blog, Johnson deleted the article without apology.[21]

Allegations that British intelligence wiretapped Donald Trump[edit]
In March 2017, Andrew Napolitano spread the unfounded conspiracy theory that GCHQ, one of Britain’s top intelligence agencies, had wiretapped Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign on orders from President Obama.[1][22] Johnson was the source for Napolitano’s claim.[1][23] The conspiracy theory was later asserted as fact by President Trump, with him citing Fox News and Napolitano.[1] GCHQ responded, stating that the claims were “nonsense, utterly ridiculous and should be ignored”.[24] Fox News later disavowed the statement by Napolitano.[1]

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 06, 2017, 01:03:14 AM »
Just read this and thought to share here. After all, Trump is not the only sociopath in office, here in the States.

"In a memo to President Trump, a group of former U.S. intelligence officers, including NSA specialists, cite new forensic studies to challenge the claim of the key Jan. 6 “assessment” that Russia “hacked” Democratic emails last year.


FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

SUBJECT: Was the “Russian Hack” an Inside Job?

Executive Summary

Forensic studies of “Russian hacking” into Democratic National Committee computers last year reveal that on July 5, 2016, data was leaked (not hacked) by a person with physical access to DNC computers, and then doctored to incriminate Russia."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 29, 2017, 04:45:58 PM »
What truly gives me to think and to worry is the quite cooler temperatures around Greenland on the Atlantic side in 2017.

Here are the DMI SST anomalies of today's date vs same date 2014 and July 28th 2012 and 2016.

It's clear that this year is no rebound year like 2014 was, but it also can't quite compare to the heat anomaly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in 2012 and 2016. I believe that this was one of the reasons 2016 ended as low as it did, as weather conditions weren't all that conducive to melting either (this year is worse, unless a big GAC and mega-Dipole show up, like they did in August last year).

But given that PIOMAS volume is as low as it is, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if this year ends in the top 3, regardless of the weather, which would be quite spectacular in itself. If there's a GAC or something similar, a second place is quite possible as well. Somehow I don't believe the 2012 records will be broken, but you never know.

August 3rd  :(

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 03, 2017, 05:18:21 AM »
Welcome to the ASIF, miki. Your profile has been released, so you can post freely now.

Thanks, Neven. I've been following this awesome community for quite a while. It feels good to be part of it. Sincerely thanks. And now, back on topic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 01, 2017, 06:35:01 PM »
Everything considered, it does fell that by the end of May the famous "Oh, Jesus!" may become an understatement.

Pages: [1]