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Messages - sark

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Tropopause pressure 85-90N for May through August

Whatever is the full and lucid explanation of all this, the anomaly rips right through some charts

anticyclonic uplift is the snag?

I think the way it computes for me is that the tropopause height was elevated by 75ish meters from May-August, which is around 30 millibars lower in pressure.  there's clearly been a giant column of warm air geolocated over the pole, mildly anticyclonic, with anomalous uplift, no?  That's what we've seen in May-August for the past 2 summers after dynamic final warmings of the winter strat PV.

You can reverse the color bar on the PSL site and see how closely it tracks, but now red = lower pressure at the tropopause boundary

How do you feel about "negative polar vortex"

here's the 925mb temp anomaly vs 1979-2000 first gif (click to run)

the chart is from the reanalysis but is "rudimentary"

click to run gif

925mb (2,500ft / 760m) air temperature anomaly vs 1981-2010.  I believe the airmass at this level has now thawed permanently in the May - August period, and is responsible for amplification of extremes over the midlatitudes in the past two years.

Consequences / Re: Arctic Amplification and Extreme Weather
« on: September 06, 2020, 01:05:55 AM »
Summer polar amplification has never really been seen to this extent, as in the past 2 years.  And, in 2020, we have an appearance of the third pole of cold?

Unfortunately there is huge model variance on what is actually going on over the Tibetan Plateau this Summer, and continuing still today...

Would someone check the ERA or MERRA records to see what is being reported in this region?  surface temperature anomaly, SLP anomaly, 500mb temps & heights even...

Specifically May - August of 2020 is very interesting as there is still model variance on what is even going on here.

Consequences / Re: Arctic Amplification and Extreme Weather
« on: September 05, 2020, 03:00:12 AM »
When those articles were published, it was true.  Now?

OK, let's just compare a 5 year average from 2000-2020 of DJF surface temperature anomalies +/- 1.5... like an autosquint function... exaggerated.  Compared to the 1979-2000 average.  We're talking about articles published back a few years ago.  in the last few years the cooler trend anywhere is pretty much annihilated.

click to run

Consequences / Re: Arctic Amplification and Extreme Weather
« on: September 05, 2020, 02:36:54 AM »
at this point?  probably not... I guess you'd have to help me hone in on the prediction in question and see if it's a testable hypothesis.  Is the question, will the WACC trend hold forever? 

Consequences / Re: Arctic Amplification and Extreme Weather
« on: September 05, 2020, 01:08:17 AM »
literally any charts you run right now show a trend.  what is it you would like to see?

1990-2020 May - August 6000 thickness.  I can't find a reference for this parameter but it seems to simply be 1000-500mb geopotential height difference.

"Recall from Chapter 8 that thickness is the geopotential height difference between two pressure levels, in practice most commonly 1000 and 500 hPa. Larger (smaller) 1000–500-hPa thickness indicates: A larger (smaller) distance between the 1000- and 500-hPa height surfaces."

(click to run)

Tropopause pressure over the entire Arctic gained 25mb of height for 4 months.   Same response in the SH

Plot is tropopause pressure over the entire Arctic for MJJA from 1948 to 2020

August is in the monthly NCEP/NCAR R1

temps at 925mb for the entire Arctic over the past 4 months have been the most extreme ever observed.  Hard to reckon with this signal over the past two years.

Second is gif of 1999-2020 925mb air temperature anomaly vs the 1981-2010 average (click to run)

Top is a gif with a locked scale of mean omega +/- .12 (click to run)

bottom is the anomaly for 2019.  I needed to see that positive/negative anomaly was positive/negative the mean.

Here is the NCEP/NCAR R1 reference for the parameter

long_name: Monthly Mean of Omega
units: Pascal/s
precision: 3
least_significant_digit: 3
var_desc: Omega (dp/dt)

With these wild atmospheric gyrations, could we be watching the atmosphere actually trying to obliterate the Hadley cell with intrusions into the Arctic?

I know. It belongs in the Stupid Questions thread.

This is the thread for that question.

The flooding is just downstream, in China, of what is certainly a stand out anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau...

I'll ask around about PSL's omega

By setting the interval to a large value and centering the scale on 273.15K (0°C) the blue area shows the average air temperature that is freezing for the 4 month period of May through August.

1999 through 2020

925mb is 2,500ft or 760m

(click to run)

Mountain torques what is you doin

You know, a lot of things are like normal oscillations or whatever, but in 2019-2020 they're so exaggerated

Top image is a gif (click to run) composite images from every year, 1990-2020, 600mb omega anomaly, now including May June July - YTD.  Simply to lock the scale and run through the archive, you can easily get a context for a blob of interest.

The time series graph of the area is impressive, but it doesn't take much zooming out to lose the signal.  The overall flux or whatever is localized.  2003 might be an analog?

hope this is worth the graphics

Sea level pressure for the region is high in the reanalysis, which is interesting because GFS paints it deep blue and has a marked low locked in this area.  The Euro is a mottled high pressure.  There's a lot of model variance even on what the conditions are here

Here is the stark difference at first verification, GFS vs ECMWF

not sure where to look

Here is an Omega height profile for June-July 2020 from low to high altitude.  I've locked the scale on this series.  Also, the average surface height of the Tibetan Plateau is 570 millibars.  These tools typically interpolate below terrain (how do you get sea level pressure in Nepal)

500 millibars & up deserve more weight here...

I'm not sure if I should adjust the extent of the mapping in order to apply time series to the area to see the true and total flux of this.. blob.

I just really expected this to turn around today

All the poleward transport at low level becomes convergence at the poles.  This causes updraft.  Equatorward transport must take place at mid and high levels, to my view

to my view, I would think this polar negative omega would build and build atmosphere over the pole and spread out at different levels, dumping stratosphere toward the surface in a suddenly blocked circulation.  We're losing the stratosphere by seeing mixing accelerate wildly

Think blowtorch on ice, permafrost, and everything if this keeps going

anyway, this is a geopotential height anomaly profile from 500mb to high altitude stratosphere at the north pole.  The scale is locked here, thus the blown out ink.  From low to high altitude there is a rising column, largely anticyclonic spin, but like a negative polar vortex is threatening to reverse mean flows, or at least add so much turbulence that it all mixes together

James G. Anderson of Harvard would probably correct a lot of this

Permafrost / Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 30, 2020, 04:42:20 AM »
Geopotential height anomalies now.  Low atmospheric height descending motion that is cold and yields high sea level pressure.

Atmospheric poleward transport taking place at ground level and converging at the north pole, uplift straight from the surface to high in the stratosphere.

How do you see it?

Permafrost / Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 30, 2020, 04:21:25 AM »
The atmosphere building over the North Pole from some sort of June-July crash into the Himalayan mountains or just downstream or whatever

I think this is a change in global mean circulation where warm atmosphere floods to the poles at the surface and converges at the pole.  Then it goes UP


Permafrost / Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 30, 2020, 04:06:44 AM »
A height profile of the Omega anomaly

Permafrost / Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 30, 2020, 04:03:03 AM »
at 600mb the northern ridge disappears.  1,500 meter distance


Permafrost / Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 30, 2020, 03:55:58 AM »
Ok at 700mb (7,700 to 10,500 feet (2,350 to 3,150 meters)) there's a pattern of 3 positives in a triangle with three negatives around it.  Negative omega as this tool runs it, I think has to be rising air / updraft, but does it apply in this case?  Help?

I kinda eyeballed where the northern positive anomaly June - July in Omega was located and it is the Qaidam in China. 

Whatever is going on downstream of the mountains and for some reason also over Northern China is disrupting the shortwaves in the vertical, i.e. huge whale's mouth rolling waves.  Floods at the same time?  Safe bet.

What is happening?  Is the tropopause crashing into the Himalayan Mountains?

Permafrost / Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 30, 2020, 02:53:18 AM »
It is interesting how strongly the Himalayan Plateau and surrounding areas show up in charts this year.  First, surface air temperature anomaly.  It's been cold.

Looking at Omega in the 500mb level to stay above terrain, we still see a strong signal of subsidence there, and a wave pattern upstream.

Tropopause pressure shows a very significant raise of the tropopause height at the poles, and deep trough over the Himalayas

Finally, Sea level pressure, which is elevated high.  I do not understand this, as forecasts have often had very deep low pressure at least downstream of the Plateau.  I don't see this reflected here.  Also if air is subsiding at such a strong level, I would expect to see heating, like during a SSW.  The cold temps are there sharply at 500mb just downstream of the mountain range.

It's a curious case of mountain torques and a new circulation we've never seen before.

The last data point on these classic AAM budget charts is always a preliminary, as it can change the next day, so the depth of the negative mountain torque excursion at the very end is only a possibility.  We will see tomorrow how it played out.

I would think the AAM budget begins to redistribute next, so I'm watching it, but I haven't looked into the data archive for identifiable trends.  It is a very noisy record.  Some qualified observatoins of the AAM budget and forecast are maintained on a wx mapwall here:

Negative omega at the poles

Ok, there is a negative omega anomaly at 80-90N May - July, or June & July if you prefer, and it exists from 1000mb all the way up to about 300mb. 

What have we seen?  Anticyclones.  High SLP.  Pushing up on the tropopause, and lowering the pressure where it stands.

negative omega at the pole.

So we're seeing poleward transport of heat and high height atmosphere flooding from equator to pole at low levels.  The airmass converges at the pole and collides, uplifts.  Pushing down through the Arctic inversion and up through the tropopause, tihs poleward transport will find equatorward return at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.

This is a different structure than we had for the past 10,000 years.  This is how you can account for Crocodilians and frost-intolerant plant fossils on Svalbard formed at its present location, but during the PETM.  Probably.

Tropopause pressure anomaly?  I don't fully understand this measurement and the chart does not read complete so this would need another method...

but what I'm starting to feel is there is a rising motion at the pole and a sinking motion near mountains.  Certainly, frictional torque / mountain torque has been remarkable this year.  What I really came for though is the air at the pole, so I look at that next

What is Omega in the atmosphere?  Rising / falling motion.  It is quasi-geostrophic calculation, a negative omega means rising motion, while a positive omega means subsiding motion.

So I'm trying to imagine how the atmosphere is going to redistribute heat in order to derive fossils of Crocodilians and frost intolerant plants on Svalbard at its present position.

This sort of planetary atmospheres exercise means I need a cross section analysis of the atmosphere to understand the structure, the stratification, etc.  Or I can look at a map of Omega.  So I'm just running anomalies and I see this pop up about a month ago.  Himalayan Plateau

In 2019, we scored the highest ever 500mb geopotential height anomaly at 80-90N, but 925mb air temperatures did not respond to it.  850mb did not respond.  In fact, I think it had been pretty muted in the Arctic after about November of 2016...

we saw excursions of temperature especially in SON and DJF, into March and April but by May it usually calmed down, kinda the new normal, but overall the Arctic had a few recent years with only mild positive temperature anomalies, compared to what we were used to seeing.  flick back through the archive at DMI80N and it would seem like the really big anomalies are in 2016 and earlier, at least in terms of duration and power. 

You can also look through the various levels of the atmosphere

Or just chart a time series of the variable in question

So in 2020 it could have appeared that 2019, it's Modoki El Nino, the +IOD, etc had simply forced anticyclones to the pole with various downstream effects.  May of 2020 rolls around and we have yet another dynamic final warming of the stratospheric polar vortex.  Yet again, a barotropic anticyclonic atmosphere briefly attained positioning over the North Pole, but it was less extreme than 2019.
 Geopotential heights 80-90N were elevated but not as much so as the year before.

Sadly, we started seeing in June that 925mb temperatures in the Arctic were sticking out like a sore thumb in the history of the atmosphere.  It blew up.  temps went from like -2C to +3C.  925 millibar height is around 2,500 ft up, or 760m.  there were a lot of soundings.  This is very new activity.

There is nothing published on this yet.

Now, if you look at June-July or May-July of 2020 the picture becomes disappointment.  It is not a trend, this is a ka-booooooom

May - June air temperatures at 80-90N averaged #1 by a long shot.  In the reanalysis products, we do not see this.  There is no analog.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 27, 2020, 04:10:56 AM »
Aerosol unmasking doesn't explain 2019

Was posting comparison to 2019/2020, would be good if you posted your thoughts here about global dimming and 2020 weather sark, hope you dont mind me using your temperature charts anomaly.

not at all.  I'll point out that we really saw amplified transport to the pole in 2019 with a very large signal at 500mb height anomalies.  anticyclones began flooding to the pole after the sudden final warming of the winter polar vortex.  This split the tropospheric vortex very badly, and we saw continued breakup of the TPV in May - August of 2019.  This period marks the highest 500mb geopotential heights in the record over the North Pole.

Similarly, 2020 had a dynamic final warming of the NH strat PV...

Now the transport is seemingly coming in at a much lower level, as 925mb temperatures have suddenly ripped north of +4C over 4 months.  Unprecedented.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 27, 2020, 02:41:34 AM »
data from NOAA2's microwave sounder thingy is flagged but was 137 knots.  FL winds 141kt

everything looks like it is still intensifying and is probably pushing through cat 5 right now

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 27, 2020, 01:31:41 AM »
NOAA #24 first eye pass found it is just at the cusp of cat 5, 937mb extrapolated surface pressure.  Seeing 170mph on radar

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 27, 2020, 01:11:45 AM »
Aerosol unmasking doesn't explain 2019

Folks, I need a favor.  Can someone please find out if we have atmospheric soundings inside this +4C area and see a height profile of this?

This type of anomaly does not exist in the atmospheric record.  This is the all time greatest anomaly, is dead center at the pole, and has grown over the past 2 years.  This is becoming very suggestive of an unexpected feedback in the dynamics of our atmosphere.

I wonder if we're losing the inversion at the pole.  The various fluxes of planetary atmosphere will be notably impacted by poleward transport taking place at such a low level.  Really, it is looking not only likely, but increasingly so, this isn't just variability on top of climate change.  This is a different gear.

Yeah the QBO is definitely on topic

UV levels have been high from all the stratospheric extremes, globally, and been so all summer

In general if you run analogs against the past 2 years you can't find any synoptic analogs for what has been happening.. it's been getting very clear

Last year, 500mb heights were very anomalously high, the most ever seen in summer.  925mb temps responded a little.  This year, 500mb heights are elevated, especially focused at the North Pole, where a lot of work is being done (loss of PE / friction). but the height anomalies are lower overall vs 2019

Now the poleward transport is taking place from equator to pole almost down to the surface.

warm soup.

Glad to be back.

This has never before been observed.  925mb (approx 2,500ft / 760m altitude) air temps are +4 and +5C over almost four months, at both poles simultaneously.

The mechanism for this sudden leak of warm air to the poles is at and below the atmospheric boundary layer, and I believe is a dynamic change inside the turbulent atmosphere.  Warm soup sounds different when stirred than cold soup.  That sound in the atmosphere can be seen in the power spectra of turbulence.  At scales of about 500km and below, I believe you'll find a steepening slope downscale.  The emergence of smaller scale as a mixture advances toward fully mixed would appear as a steepening enstrophic cascade downscale.

Another major factor is the redistribution of mass throughout the atmosphere which seems to be amplifying in oscillation.  The atmosphere is absolutely sloshing, and the atmospheric polar caps are responding simultaneously to these great planetary waves.

Not good.

Click to run gif

The atmosphere is rapidly changing now.

The first image is a gif of the 925mb air temperature anomaly for May 1 - August 20 in every year from 1958-2020.  click to run

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 09:50:28 PM »
correction lol

not 750 megawatts.

I don't really know how big it needs to be to trigger a fire detection.  I never bothered to get that deep into it when I was using it to see where forest fires are moving.  Worldview shows a number of hits over several days from the top two environmental satellite programs and I saw one hot pixel from GOES-20.

how do you access Suomi NPP top tier products?  Is it expensive?

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:22:20 PM »
Thank you Sark, the secret mass cremations story was clear rumor-mongering, but it's good to have actual information about the issue.

As is the crap that the new coronavirus escaped from a lab in Wuhan where China was attempting to weaponize it.

humans are far too clumsy to create something so magnificent

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 08:02:49 AM »
First I've heard of this Sark, and Mr. Google returns nothing to the search string "Wuhan Coal yard fire".
Can you expand on this for us?

Looking at Suomi NPP 375m


some background info

Basically there's a rumor that started 7 days ago around fire detections in China. showed a spike in SO2 and NOx with fire detections in this area, I believe delivered from the CAMS 40km model for fire detections and GEOS-5 22km for SO2.  I'm finding Windy is extremely difficult to use although it is pretty, so the sources for Windy are not exactly clear to me at the moment.

Wouldn't expect there to be a news article since we hear almost nothing from inside China.

Fire detections are ongoing and detected by multiple NPP enviro-sats.  Confidence is high and radiative power is in the 750-1500MW* range.  Location is on the order of within 100 meters of what appears to be coal staging yards outside of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co and linked with a couple of coal power plants nearby.  Didn't check the date of imagery.

"Update: Rise in sulfur dioxide could be sign of mass cremations in Wuhan" Taiwan News

So Taiwan News is reporting rumors of open cremations based on Windy and Twitter comments and the "debunking" has been trotted out and all of it has been utter trash journalism, from all sides.

After 7 days I kept seeing confusion surrounding this event saying it's all from models (you know how it is) so I sat down to pinpoint the location and find some sources in case anyone is interested.

It's pretty likely there are lots of industrial accident fires and open garbage burning especially of medical waste all over China.  These coal piles can go up spontaneously and both the power and scale of the observations are consistent with an open coal burn.  I'm just putting it within 100 meters of that coal staging yard.

*edit: that has to be a mistake.  not that hot I don't think.  but fire detections ongoing nonetheless

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 01:09:24 AM »
It's not hard to pinpoint a fire detection or match up 2 layers in gimp.  I'm just giving a location.  clearly it was the coal staging pads that went up.  no idea what was there.  no idea how much was burned.  JUST the location. OK?  30.640984, 114.445986

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 01:03:53 AM »
It's been 7 days and people are still arguing about the fire at the coal staging yard right here.  good grief.

showing my expert analysis using NASA WorldView and a hacker image program with actual layers

Here's a link to the location on Google Maps'27.5%22N+114%C2%B026'45.6%22E/@30.640984,114.443792,977m

weight of a natural pile

volume of coal to weight

i dunno, definitions

to estimate the capacity of the yards

Each pad has a capacity of about 15,000 tons or the weight of a full 120 car coal train.  They will need to stack coal somewhere else as the yards here are on fire.  It's two days of full capacity of the nearby powerplant combustion but whatever is there is burning as an open pile.

Hope they didn't lose the plant.  It is like Armageddon there right now.

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