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Messages - Urbanus Simpliticus

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Inception date on the attachment was June 2017.
Prediction for September 2018 for 1.5 C.

Arctic sea ice / Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« on: April 12, 2018, 09:50:19 PM »
Well, I've been lurking on the periphery way too long so I'm a gonna wade in on this with bare feet.
My interpretation of the single ice cube 10 Km high limit is that given the dynamic equilibrium between land fast ice and open ocean ice, the endpoint of absolute zero floating Ice is unachievable.
(As long as there are still conditions that have most of glacier ice intact )
And I'm not going to fact check myself or revisit definitions at this point.
Therefore an amount of ice that is 1 meter thick and has an area of a million kilometers has to be the arbitrary endpoint of floating ice, since it's physical origin is irrelevant, within the narrow focus of what matters. What matters is that is the crashing of the Arctic is definable when there is an insignificant amount of floating ice versus open water.
And "insignificant" has to be some arbitrary value that is not zero, because that is the physical reality of approaching the limit from the direction of "ice is still present". And freshwater melt and calving and other contribution from land and natural processes of the cycle.
If it were that sea ice was an isolated system, than "zero" could be zero. 
As it is, a tenth of normal coverage or a Fourteenth of total available area are a fair threshold for a "no ice" definition. 

 A minor Stochastic event affiliated with the permafrost condition.
Only displacement creates tsunamis
It's not a seismically active area, so the sensors sensed the actual collapse.
It's quite conceivable that some calving tsunamis will run up a neighboring fiords. Possibly triggering other events.
The fiord ice appears to have been swamped in the vicinity.
 The local tide cycle has a peak to trough of 2.5 meters which is impressive for the location, and the houses are of course situated for the max tide.
Thanks for the local tide level posts.

The landslide causing the tsunami is now located at Karrat icefjord.

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