Messages

1

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: June 19, 2019, 08:32:13 PM »

You don't need trucks to plant trees. They just grow on their own.

At the scale that trees must be planted to  make up of years of deforestation, it is simply not true that trucks aren't needed and is just a matter of planting them.

 You need to collect and plant seed, nurse them into saplings, then go to correct spots, clean the area, dig, plant them and every so often, specially in the early life of the trees they must be tended. If drought or flood happen they will need help.

This is something that must be done, we must get planting trees at a scale that puts nature to shame. But don't kid yourself. It will be a huge effort and it will require modern technology to make it feasible. Also many species will go extinct as we change habitats to whatever they are now to forests.

It doesn't matter. It needs to be done. Together with zero emissions and CO2 extractions by other methods. More direct forms of geoengineering will be needed too. Fossil fuel interests won. There is no longer time to do this the easy way.

This sounds like monoculture to me, and I'm sure the Irish can explain about monoculture.

2

Arctic sea ice / Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?

« on: June 19, 2019, 07:50:34 PM »

  Models aren't much use when reality overwhelms them . Time to pay attention to models more than 3 days out was 40 years ago .. but no-one that could make a difference did .  .. b.c.

40 years ago I made sure I wasn't living at sea level.  I'll also oppose any attempt to mitigate damage caused by a rising sea level.  Be the change you want to be.

You didn't really need any models then and you certainly don't need them now to know that we fucked up.

3

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: June 19, 2019, 05:07:20 PM »

I am not trying to discredit PIOMAS, but it's important to understand it's limitations and I'm not there yet.

PIOMAS is known to be:

1.  Not very accurate,

and

2.  Better than anything else we've got.

4

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary

« on: June 19, 2019, 02:05:57 PM »

The 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread would be a whole lot better if the meaningless chatter was here instead of there.

5

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: June 19, 2019, 01:55:29 PM »

Interesting developments around the perimeter. The crack along the CAB / CAA border seems to be the work of the wind and is an interesting example of how the whole pack can move as one.

I'm going to guess that when the low pressure departs the Beaufort and the gyre returns to it's normal spin, the crack will be filled back in.

That's how it's been, and that's how it will be...until suddenly it isn't.

6

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: June 17, 2019, 09:38:43 PM »

To emphasize this point, here is the DMI chart for 2012 when we recorded our current record low minimum. As long as there is ice melting, the temperature will be pegged near 0C.

Perspective and context is so important. This is a great example.

I have yet to figure out where all these wonderful charts are, so this sort of thing is really appreciated.

Cheers

This might help:

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

7

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: June 16, 2019, 04:46:09 PM »

Again, the things described above will happen. How severe they will affect us is a direct function of us emitting more or less CO2. Less CO2 will mitigate the severity!

150 years too late.  Less CO2 might reduce the duration, but we've already screwed up.

8

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: June 14, 2019, 11:18:50 PM »

In my experience, the people who now say that we can't do anything about it are the same who 15 years ago said that the world wasn't warming and 10 years ago that is wasn't caused my humans.

30 years ago I made sure I bought a house on a hill overlooking town (Boston) saying it was my future valuable oceanfront property.  I said then, and I say now, we sealed our fate before we even knew it was an issue some 150 years ago.

9

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: June 13, 2019, 10:01:56 PM »

We have lift-off.

10

Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?

« on: June 07, 2019, 01:10:09 PM »

Do we give too much importance to ASI extent and we should focus more on ASI volume?

Find me daily volume numbers to drool over and I'll stop salivating over extent.

11

Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?

« on: June 06, 2019, 04:02:23 PM »

Since we're much too late to do anything about it anyway we are free to pick whatever markers we choose, and 2012 was an interesting year.  What the uneducated think simply doesn't matter.

Would it be fair to say that you're basically here at ASIF to observe the extinction process?

No.  I think technology will beat out the weather and mankind won't even notice when Homo Sapiens goes extinct -- not even the last one.

I do think there will be considerable disruption and that it is 150 years too late to do anything about it.

12

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 06, 2019, 01:09:05 PM »

I have read in passing that the circulation of the Southern Ocean has changed, but I don't really follow Antarctica so I don't know where I read about it.  I think that basically the surface current is more offshore and the next layer down is more onshore leading to more ice moving north in Winter and more melt under the ice shelves.  (A situation which cannot persist...)

13

Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?

« on: June 06, 2019, 12:54:48 PM »

Since we're much too late to do anything about it anyway we are free to pick whatever markers we choose, and 2012 was an interesting year.  What the uneducated think simply doesn't matter.

14

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: June 04, 2019, 12:52:43 PM »

....even though we should have started 30 years ago.

30 years?  mutter...mutter...Try 150 years...mutter....mutter.

15

Arctic sea ice / Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting

« on: June 03, 2019, 07:56:05 PM »

So, yes, the single-polar-cell system is failing, but we still have polar cells, they are just centered in abnormal locations and are now advecting heat into the High Arctic instead of dissipating heat entering the High Arctic (at least, advection is now occurring more often than dissipation).

WACCy weather.

16

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: June 03, 2019, 04:33:52 PM »

IIRC, AGW can wipe out the arctic and subarctic climate zones, making the poles temperate in wind circulation. Is this correct?
Could AGW create a new equatorial climate zone, a "supertropical" one to coin a term?

There are three cells, Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar.  It is my understanding that having 2 cells is unstable. and therefore if the Polar cell collapses you will end up with just one cell running from the equator to the pole.  (I don't remember where I heard that two cells is unstable or why this would be true.)

Some of us think we are witnessing the collapse of the Polar cell now.

17

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary

« on: June 02, 2019, 10:39:13 PM »

I just engaged in a simple act of protest against privilege and every single person who weighed in on the discussion defended that privilege.

It isn't privilege.  It's an earned right.  You post actual data every day for a few years and I'll gladly put down the next noobie that comes along messing up the thread.

18

Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics

« on: June 02, 2019, 07:29:18 PM »

Sorry for the back and forth despite my being a layman on this subject. But: I am talking about ice touching salt water, not at depth but nearly at the surface where pressure change is negligible. It is "known" that salt hastens the melting of ice. In other words lowering the melting point, even if the ice is pure freshwater.
Can some expert step in? 

How about someone who has made ice cream?

19

Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics

« on: June 02, 2019, 07:27:47 PM »

My memory of the slow transition thread is that the main questionmark was the future behavior of water vapor.  My contention at the time, and to this day, is that the Arctic is in transition from a desert climate to a maritime climate.  The Arctic nights are going to get cloudier and lose less heat to space.  I think the transition from desert to maritime has already happened rather abruptly in late December 2015, and we are now simply waiting for enough ice to melt in Summer that it cannot reach thermal equilibrium the following Winter.

20

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary

« on: June 02, 2019, 05:53:31 PM »

Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

There's one thing that has been really tiresome to me lately, and that's meta-discussions, ie a discussion about the discussion. Gerontocrat can do what he likes here, as long as he posts the data. If there's anything anyone wants to take up with him, I'd like to ask them to copy the quote in question, paste it in another thread and comment on it there.

I have to totally agree with this.

21

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: May 26, 2019, 01:43:30 PM »

If the public never "gets it", it's precisely because people acting like you.

This discussion belongs elsewhere.  May I suggest "Stupid Questions"?

I, for one, have no interest in helping the public get it.  I'm here to watch the ice melt.

22

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: May 22, 2019, 04:47:40 PM »

Of course, the important date is not first BOE, but when it becomes inevitable. That is almost certainly past.

I'm of the belief that date passed over 100 years ago.  This belief does not make me popular.

23

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: May 16, 2019, 10:34:06 PM »

...There is a danger that what you said conflates chaotic weather and fairly stable climate...

Climate is just as chaotic as weather but on a (slightly) longer timescale.

24

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: May 11, 2019, 04:44:13 PM »

Slow climate change proponents are giving the world the wrong risk assessment.

While I am not particularly interested in the alarmist/denier debate, I have to agree with this in terms of risk assessment.

The past evidence is that there can be sudden climate change, therefore in terms of risk assessment, you must plan for abrupt changes.  The slow change proponents, unless they can demonstrate a very high level of skill in their predictions, are doing society a disservice.

25

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: May 06, 2019, 01:14:13 PM »

Is it possible with this forum software to set a thread moderated with only certain people allowed to normally post there?  I can think of one thread that would be a whole lot better if only two people were allowed to post there.  (Maybe if those two people were the moderators?)

26

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary

« on: May 04, 2019, 10:46:48 PM »

The Model Worshippers don't like me.

27

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary

« on: May 04, 2019, 02:01:05 PM »

Rather than continue in a thread where it doesn't belong I'll post here.

I'm of the opinion that we are 150 years too late, and I'm just here for the show.  I always wonder if the climax will be this year.

28

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: May 01, 2019, 12:18:21 PM »

Perhaps the AI is so advanced the computers have now demanded equal holiday rights?

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?  (Otherwise known as Bladerunner)

29

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: April 29, 2019, 12:01:39 PM »

RE: sark: warm arctic, cold continents.

As your gifs move a bit too fast, I attach mine instead: 2016-19 winters vs 1960-90. No sign of warm arctic/cold continents, instead: very warm arctic and quite warm continents.

In WACC (or WACCy) the Cold is in comparison to the Warm, not to an absolute, so warm Arctic and quite warm continents is WACCy as long as the continents are warming more slowly than the Arctic.

30

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: April 24, 2019, 01:44:13 PM »

Geoengineering is not BS.

I'd have to disagree for the simple reason that we are not smart enough to figure out all the potential consequences.  Any sort of proposed geoengineering is too dangerous to be anything other than BS.

31

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: April 22, 2019, 02:02:27 PM »

It's been long enough now that I think we can safely say something happened in 2015.  I've been saying near the end of December, but from the looks of this it was more like the middle of the year. (Graph from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice)

My stupid question for the day is this:  What happened in 2015?

32

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?

« on: April 06, 2019, 09:15:29 PM »

What is 7 million km2 at 6 cm thick?

Impossible.

Straw man question. You will never have 7 million KM2 at 6CM thick, not even as an average.

In fact I consider it dubious to call anything less than 15CM thick anything other than slush.

lol

Thanks for all the fish.

33

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?

« on: April 06, 2019, 01:37:04 PM »

KK  - I do believe that even according to your own arguments, transition between a thickness of 1mm and a thickness of zero is extremely significant, since, it flips the albedo and biases the overall energy equation toward accelerated warming (in summer), or cooling (in winter).

I don't think the case in winter is nearly that cut and dried.  If the water surface gets warm enough to support a reasonable humidity then fog will form leading to accelerated warming, not cooling, in winter.  It's the difference between a desert climate and a maritime climate.

And I still think we need the 12 dimensions some physicists think there are to reasonably model the ice.  (24 would be good too)

34

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?

« on: April 06, 2019, 01:29:44 PM »

I believe that for kissing 24 dimensions are best. 

I believe that you're inadvertently slipping off topic into the 4th dimension?

Only 2 or 3 are allowed in here!

I'm with Neven on this one.

35

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?

« on: April 04, 2019, 01:17:38 PM »

In my own private corner of the Metaverse the spheres start as small circles when you first see them and then grow into large circles which are clearly projections of spheres as you get close enough to really see them.  So I think you have to have at least 4 spatial dimensions.

About ice???  Well, it seems to me our problem is that to properly represent Arctic Ice you need 12 or so dimensions in an Information Space.

(I reluctantly voted for 3, lacking higher available choices.)

36

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: March 09, 2019, 03:15:45 PM »

If 1980 was 2.6 m thick, and 2017 1.5 m thick, then the linear thickness loss rate is about [edit: 0.03] m per year.  With 1.5 m remaining, then extrapolating a linear trend we find zero thickness in about 2068.  But nothing in the Arctic is linear.

I have three comments about this simplistic projection.

• Much of the larger 1980's thickness was associated with thick multi-year ice that has drifted out The Fram (mostly) over 30+ years and has been replaced with younger ice, which in turn is replaced with about the same age of young ice, so the future decline rate is likely to be less ("Slow Transition" thread).
• I expect Arctic ice to crumple to nothingness after it gets to 10 or 20 cm thick, due to waves, etc., so the final decline may be fast.
• I used to have an opinion about when 'ice freedom' would occur; now I don't.

I've no idea on point 1, but I agree totally with points 2 and 3.  It's very unclear when the BOE will happen, but when it does the end will come suddenly.

37

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data

« on: February 27, 2019, 03:22:19 PM »

When that hunk of ice breaks off in Antarctica does the sea ice suddenly jump by two New Yorks?

38

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: February 04, 2019, 03:10:09 PM »

ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.

When did you stop beating your wife?

39

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season

« on: December 10, 2018, 02:18:41 PM »

The (ESRL) freezing season so far:

40

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: November 30, 2018, 10:22:16 PM »

I suspect the immense heat capacity of the oceans is simply dampening the time to equilibrium effects of the 50% increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial.  Give it a millenium or so.

The sudden swings in sea level tend to add doubt about that millennium estimate.

How so?  Sea level depends mostly on melting of ice on land masses.
If the mean temperature of the lower atmosphere goes up by 2 degrees C, how long does it take for the mass of the oceans to rise in temperature by a corresponding amount?

The accumulating heat of the earth at present won't be fully reflected in surface temperatures until heat stops going into the oceans and raising their heat content.  We know that total heat content of the oceans is increasing, so we know surface temperature increases don't fully reflect the current planetary radiation imbalance.

Actual evidence comes before theory.  That is how so.  Fact is that there have been numbers of large changes in sea level that have happened on time spans more like decades than millennia.

41

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask

« on: November 30, 2018, 04:34:19 PM »

I suspect the immense heat capacity of the oceans is simply dampening the time to equilibrium effects of the 50% increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial.  Give it a millenium or so.

The sudden swings in sea level tend to add doubt about that millennium estimate.

42

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: November 29, 2018, 10:03:33 PM »

Extract from a post by AbruptSLR.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.msg182527.html#msg182527

Goodbye snow, hullo rain. That would tend to slow down winter sea ice formation?
(And not do bbr's hypothesis a lot of good).

Towards a rain-dominated Arctic
Richard Bintanja and Olivier Andry
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands (bintanja@knmi.nl)
Current climate models project a strong increase in Arctic precipitation over the coming century, which has been attributed primarily to enhanced surface evaporation associated with sea-ice retreat. Since the Arctic is still quite cold, especially in winter, it is often (implicitly) assumed that the additional precipitation will fall mostly as snow.

However, very little is known about future changes in rain/snow distribution in the Arctic, notwithstanding the importance for hydrology and biology. Here we use 37 state-of-the-art climate models in standardised twenty-firstcentury (2006–2100) simulations to show that 70◦ – 90◦N average annual Arctic snowfall will actually decrease, despite the strong increase in precipitation, and that most of the additional precipitation in the future (2091–2100) will fall as rain. In fact, rain is even projected to become the dominant form of precipitation in the Arctic
region. This is because Arctic atmospheric warming causes a greater fraction of snowfall to melt before it reaches the surface, in particular over the North Atlantic and the Barents Sea. The reduction in Arctic snowfall is most pronounced during summer and autumn when temperatures are close to the melting point, but also winter rainfall is found to intensify considerably. Projected (seasonal) trends in rain/snowfall will heavily impact Arctic hydrology (e.g. river discharge, permafrost melt), climatology (e.g. snow, sea ice albedo and melt) and ecology (e.g. water and food availability).

While I do tend to agree with their projection, I object to their use of words like "will" rather than "might".  The models simply do not have the demonstrated skill which warrants definitive pronouncements.

Yes, I do expect the snow to change to rain....but I don't KNOW it will.

43

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season

« on: November 29, 2018, 09:55:27 PM »

It does mean that the depth when there is very little yearly variation is easy to find. I think it's about 2-3 meters for a decent wine cellar in Oxford.

Actually, can you continue to report on that wine cellar for us over the next 10 years or so?

44

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data

« on: November 23, 2018, 10:10:24 PM »

the less ice there is in summer and considering that the arctic as a whole will freeze over for some time to come in winter, the steeper that curve will be at given times during refreeze. once the peripherals won't freeze like before, the differences between the years will be smaller because the inner arctic will mostly freeze for quite some time to come as mentioned above.

That may or may not become true.  I'm still of the opinion that when the switch happens it will be sudden and complete, and will not respect time of year.  What I don't see as predictable is when it will happen.

45

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season

« on: November 14, 2018, 10:04:42 PM »

It is funny how all the random old people here don't like model output...

I don't like any model output over five (used to be three) days from present period.  Whether weather or climate.

46

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November)

« on: November 08, 2018, 10:36:59 PM »

Yes warning re not https and looks same.

Google, and I guess others, is getting really cranky about unsecured web connections.  In the long run this is good, but in the short run, it is a pain. If you know the site is safe do the advanced thing and go there.

47

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season

« on: November 01, 2018, 08:35:15 PM »

please don't drag this reglaciation debate into every single thread on the forum

Agreed!  Especially not a thread devoted to THIS winter.

48

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season

« on: November 01, 2018, 02:52:15 PM »

Can someone help me understand why we should care that much about Hudson Bay, and whether it might freeze over a little earlier than normal?

I don't care so much, but I think some people associate the Hudson with the movement of the "Cold Pole" to Greenland.

I do think the Cold Pole might be moving to Greenland, but I don't think that in the long run it is such a big deal.

49

Arctic sea ice / Re: Winter Temperatures in the Arctic

« on: October 25, 2018, 02:21:46 PM »

That would, I assume, be the spike at about day 50:

50

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)

« on: October 25, 2018, 02:01:50 AM »

Third, at least informally, recognizing that at the end that land fast ice might remain artificially delaying the first 100% ice free time, we all (or at least nearly all) informally agreed to a definition of essentially ice free at 1 million square kilometers or less. This pulls back the estimated first essentially ice free Arctic September by another 2-5 years from the projected estimate.

Some of us prefer saying that the Arctic is essentially ice-free when the DMI 80 N in Summer is no longer pinned near zero.  That is, the Arctic is ice-free when there is no longer enough ice to keep it cold.