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Messages - Pmt111500

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Thanks Tor Bejnar for the link (recommended to people new to the subject at hand.)

As a sample of studies made of the way back times of Pliocene, I'll present a recent study of the effects of the closure of Central American Seaway: , I admit the terminology is awful and newcomers to the subject won't get much from it. Many here though may find it interesting. I likely missed several points of it and didn't delve into it deeply, still found it express profound climatic changes tied to the event. It's a wonderous thing that genus Homo might thank this remote geological event for its existence!

Oh, the question was also of the earlier millions of years. These distant times of over c.3.5 million years back and earlier, are not directly comparable to current values. This is because the ocean currents have changed so much. Currently there is no tropical connection between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Middle America prevents the heat of El Nino to directly affect Northern Atlantic temperatures. Earlier still, the Drake Passage was formed in full scale some 30 million years ago, allowing the west wind drift to form. Prior that, very little of the worlds' oceans got so cold that they could form ice cover. (Writing these from memory, please correct if there are terrible mistakes and/or omissions of the generally accepted scientific assesements)

This might be of use too,

The case is comparable to a situation in which both parties of a discussion are aggravating each other. It does not matter who (solar or greenhouse gas) started it. Things heat up and then they sulk to each other for the period of interglacial ;-) , or this time around, for the anthropogenic deglaciation.

You could try to look for EPICA ice core measurements or other similar East Antarctic cores. The East Antarctic ice sheet has been there for the duration. Granted the lower layers get squished under several tons of pressure but similarities between cores allow making combinations of the records. They of course suffer somewhat of the limited geographical range. Else you might try to find Raymos foraminifera study of ocean sediments. The creatures have a specific temperature range in which they like to live before dying and dropping to ocean bottom and rather readily fossilize. Here the geographic range is not much of an issue, but rather the properties of water, which tend to lessen the fluctuations. If we accept the generally accepted theory of Meteorology that says the West Wind Drift isolates the Antarctic continent we may take the Antarctic T and [co2] to represent the southern hemisphere rather well (it would be a ~fixed amount off the hemispherical value.) Raymo and EPICA overlaps are supporting each other. This leaves the record of northern hemisphere for the period of 180000 - 1000000 years to be somewhat poorly attested, there aren't too many well preserved cores of sediment collected. Some have been obtained from north Atlantic, some from Siberia, the main trouble here is the sites shouldn't have had glaciers on them even during the severest glacials (ice ages in common parlance) as these very easily destroy or at least mix up the elder sediments. Then there's a whole bunch of science to be accepted to trust the methods scientists use to derive temperatures and CO2 levels.

Combining various sources of data to present a uniform graph you seem to be asking is not a task for any individual scientist, this might be seen as inappropriate tampering with data. I'd guess no one has gone through the trouble of going through 40 years of sedimentology and glaciology papers and data sources to produce exactly what you ask. But take this as a short introduction to an answer. There might be a direct pointer to what you ask, and I would also like to see the references in such a graph, I'd throw a guess of some 2000-3000 papers referenced.

Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 15, 2018, 12:38:56 PM »
... simply because if history is a guide (haha) a record low is more likely than not.

This. There was like... !Many Tons¡ of more ice just 14000 years ago! Gotta be going down!
Like more recent history, man.
;D ;D ;D ;D ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 15, 2018, 12:14:11 PM »
... simply because if history is a guide (haha) a record low is more likely than not.

This. There was like... !Many Tons¡ of more ice just 14000 years ago! Gotta be going down!

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Poll: Nares Strait closure in 2018
« on: January 15, 2018, 07:21:13 AM »
Voted for March. There ain't no solid reason for this. The possible diversion of North Atlantic Drift west of Greenland due the stop of Greenland Meltwater intrusion to Nares could reverse the Nares flow and switch the Beaufort Gyre anticlckwise could happen anytime and could apparently stop ice movement or make it even retreat in Lincoln. 6-days solid line of thin ice happens so regularly in inner seas with little mobility like Baltic aren't of course a good place to compare.

Oh, horrible grammar. Sorry, can't write properly from phone.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 15, 2018, 04:50:28 AM »
The Polls said Trump would lose. Please make sure you get to vote. The numbers on polls distract the sensible people of the main goal which should be the pervasive acceptance of physics in government. This cannot be done by voting any republican candidate, so the republican party should be dissolved where possible and cast into permanent minority (abt. to the 5% they really represent (the winners of the organized stock market crashes)) elsewhere. I'm really glad I'm not in a position in which I'd have to see them. Their behavior and babble forces decent people to lie in order to keep polite.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 12, 2018, 02:30:59 PM »
"Drumpf I of Trumpistan has officially declared "Haiti is a shithole of a nation". This means that the republican senators, may God bless their white souls, are not allowed to call Haiti anything other than a shithole that it is. Else they may find their resignation letters be written for them and asses put permanently in retirement.", the Trumpistan Righteous Office of Official And Sophisticated Statements.(TROO ASS)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 10, 2018, 06:20:25 AM »
This is ok. I didn't like the Xmas song, though.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 10, 2018, 02:28:11 AM »
Hey-ho, we may still book passenger flights crossing arctic to get data :P .  Remember tuesday updates on windows-machines may be a bit more tricky this time around. For sure, some of JAXA stuff runs on Linux, but will the updates talk to each other?

Recently flew Tokyo to London and noticed that the plane did not cross into the Arctic despite it being the shortest route. so don’t go booking Arctic flights without checking if the plane goes there. is avoiding the Arctic normal practice for commercial jets?

Not in summer at least, i don't know of winters... Could of course be a matter of jet streams, the airlines like to use'em to save in fuel. Flying counterclockwise this might be more of an issue.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 09, 2018, 01:36:03 PM »
Hey-ho, we may still book passenger flights crossing arctic to get data :P .  Remember tuesday updates on windows-machines may be a bit more tricky this time around. For sure, some of JAXA stuff runs on Linux, but will the updates talk to each other?

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: January 09, 2018, 12:01:02 PM »

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: January 09, 2018, 11:44:03 AM »
In the anticipation of winter olympics... (Let's see if the photo's upright now) For ye southeners, this is a 'snow cannon', they had pulled these up the mound waiting for cold enough weather

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 09, 2018, 07:26:39 AM »
Oh, please start a new thread for 2018, if you want. The poll of the year 2017 became uninteresting very quickly, so not trying to invent another one. As stated above, I'm currently on the belief republican policies prevent meaningful action on anything preserving the stability of earth systems. Thus there are more meaningful ways to contribute than reporting on inevitable (in republican minds) rise of Co2, which rises the humidity and in combo with water vapor warms the oceans the most wich melt the ice sheets year round which rises the sea levels which drowns the beaches.

Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 09, 2018, 06:39:12 AM »
Not yet voting, and probably won't. 2 first. The #3 happens anyway and imo it's silly to keep this option on the talks and polls. Now, if you had added 'actively' in the beginning, then it might have been. I f.e. have a friend who's planted oak and ash near the Arctic Circle and I've taken an elm sapling c.120 miles north of natural range. Maybe this helps. #4 would require a fundamental and permanent psychological change in the capitalists brains, so this cannot be trusted. Oh, there was also 'other solutions' grouped with geoengineering. If these would be tech fantasies of continued disaster capitalism, definitely no,  if renewable energy then possibly.

As there are at least three options which are ambiguous in nature, not voting here. Thanks for setting this poll up anyhow.

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 09, 2018, 06:17:36 AM »
+25 ppm for me too, the lunacy of republicans ensures it and after 2017 it's completely out of our hands till 420ppm anyway as the death of veggies and other photosynthetic stuff becomes an issue. Funnily enough, +25 m asl is also what this means. The garbage republicans dump on shores shoul poison the extra algal growth resulting from the expanding surface area of oceans.

It looks like I'm again on a pessimistic mode. Maybe I'll drive the 5 miles to the nearest alpine skiing practise area to see if they've managed to artificially snow the mound. On the way I'll see if the shallow Baltic bays have started to freeze over like the lake over the other way. Photo: a shallow s.Finland lake 80% frozen c.20 min to sunrise

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 07, 2018, 06:39:36 PM »
I'll just leave this here: "You have two presidential canditates, you can't milk a mad cow diseased oxen." ::) :D ;D :-X

Reporting normal, but warmish temperatures from here and gladly accepting this chart that the local weather service has started to give out to public too. Nothing dramatic here, look away. Still wish they'd put in their name and the start date of the chart, but m ok to add those. start date here is 2017.12.08 - though it could well be 2016.12.08. no dramatic diff here either. Please look away.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 07, 2018, 03:07:59 AM »
Didn't Trump recently announce some state of emergency, that gave him all kinds of extra-judiciary rights- while making short shift of the rights of others?

Sorry, no link

I can only think of his declaration of an emergency over opioid crisis; however, I am not sure if this allows him to crack down on drug use:

Title: "Donald Trump declares public health emergency over opioid crisis. Here’s what that means"

Maybe the crisis is that the drugs he's been taking to stay delusional wrt reality are not working as well anymore. "Gimme better drugs", he might say in the morning and then he starts to tweet his delusions again. If you have the opportunity to make him a drug test, scan for typical hallucinatory substances, though I'm quite certain he's got an access to experimental drugs nowadays. (F.e. zaleplon +methamphetamine+occasional russian vodka drinks might produce such symptoms)

Already broken, Piomas just hasn't realised it yet  :P . But really I'm glad the cloud cover on summers has not been blown away by some weather event yet. My guess is june-july 2012 who dunnit back then. But on to more important matter. Who wants a polar bear to adopt, the right-wingers here in Finland say we can't afford to feed ours anymore? ;) :P ;D 8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2018, 06:43:32 AM »
Thanks for the Lincoln Sea Animation Ice Shieldz. That inspired me to go look if NASA still had the Worldview working, and I must say the 'compress scale'-feature on there is a great app. Night brightness T over Lincoln and High Nares. and in case you get thrown to the unmodified scale adding the image (greenscale) (edit: oh, it looks like the shorthand link preserves the scale.) Note how the areas of clouds here show warmer brightness T than ice.

The rest / Re: How to secure internet ?
« on: January 05, 2018, 03:31:23 AM »
Schneier on CPU bugs:

The Intel problem is the more serious. The fixes can cause appreciable slowdown on databases.


Specially nasty engineering fault. On the patch of Linux kernel: "It's not like the few Linux-experts who can code the kernel, would purposefully slow their computers though a particularly paranoid one might have tried to experiment with something like this."

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: January 04, 2018, 05:56:50 PM »
RSS and UAH are sensitive to changes in ENSO, right? More pronounced warming/cooling and a lag, etc.

note 2015/2016 El Nino no divergence
the last 9 months was not a significant change to El Nino
There is no analogy to this even in the historic record.

Oops, remembered wrongly, it happens. Propose to move this out of the 'Stupid Questions'-thread, since this is something that probably needs an answer, and a stupid answer like mine above won't clearly do.  8) ??? ::) :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: January 04, 2018, 03:49:09 PM »
I just noticed this playing with woods for trees

I was reviewing an old John Christy lecture to remember the bald-faced lies that they are all starting to swallow with a good helping of crow and I wanted to compare the revised RSS values with the UAH (fake) data.

Then I noticed this.

Does anyone have a good idea why the divergence between RSS and UAH vs GISSTemp and HADCRUT4?  How is it possible that BOTH satellite MSU are showing warming but the surface temp data sets are showing cooling?!??!!!!!!????!!!!!!

This is especially disconcerting since the RSS and UAH have spectacularly low coverage of of the Arctic.


I could theorize of a sudden and new feature in the upper atmosphere that is causing lower stratospheric warming and cooling the earth but then people would start accusing me of some kind of geoengineering conspiracy. . .  :o

Looks about normal reaction to large El Nino to me. That's the CO2 effect next winter or something similar.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 04, 2018, 03:41:08 PM »
JAXA website let's you see all the images up to 3 Jan but not the graphs or data after 31 Dec. Annoying. Patience is a virtue?

They probably wait until @Neven starts the "2018 sea ice area and extent data"-thread here.

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: January 03, 2018, 12:54:37 PM »
Traffic has likely been the largest killer before, nowadays neonicotinoids exterminate their food, so birds are going to get starved to death..

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 03, 2018, 12:32:32 AM »
Sentiments: , but that's just talk. And please not get tired of the lies of republicans and especially Drumpf the Orange Shit-Gibbon. At least he provokes some creative cussing, if you need a break from damaging the republicans. They want hate.

Windows breaking from cold? I think not.
Nope, my house is well over a hundred years old. All the windows are still there as far as I can see, dispite at least -25°C. That was a while back though...
Oh, definitely not (bottomed out at -35C here once) and glad to hear my windows have at least +10 years life in them. When we changed the way water main pipe comes in the house though, the foundations moved a bit twisting the frame. Now it requires a rubber hammer (mallet) to get some of them to open.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 01, 2018, 06:04:28 PM »

I wonder if these extremes are the sign of an imminent regime shift in midlatitude winter weather due to Arctic changes: nonlinear systems often have huge oscillations before settling into a new mode

The official position is we cannot state what the weather is in three days so any attempts to use predictive proxies are banned. This however, does not apply in all countries.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 01, 2018, 12:40:48 PM »
Have the Trumpistan officials already stopped monitoring the currents in Bering Straits? I remember seeing a site somewhere but am unable now to find it. Anyway, it's too late to save the Arctic Sea Ice anymore as the A-I-C got elected, but it could be useful to know when to expect the next change in the climate system.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: January 01, 2018, 08:47:54 AM »
Have a better year than 2017 and 2016, folks. Proper winter is becoming non-existent here but a year with no snow has not yet happened. Wishing good year for sensible people and utter destruction of republicans in every election and their personal lives with a picture of a snow covered elm.

Antarctica / Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« on: December 31, 2017, 11:18:57 AM »
Not voting on Antarctic sea ice, as so much depends on melt water and crumbling ice sheets. In the north Greenland makes it hard enough.

Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: December 30, 2017, 11:58:30 AM »
Can I still change my vote?  ;) ;D

You are the boss, so I guess you can even do a Trump and change the data?

Neven - Was it you who switched off JAXA today?

It rather looks like republicans are again attacking it. They should really pull the cable going america off and apologize Canadians, it's not their fault you know.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 29, 2017, 01:46:48 PM »
Of course this is no surprise it's just that the winter dark has lasted long enough to stop the outpour of cold in the atlantic. Goes via air to east NAmerica now. NAtlantic drift is again bringing warmth here to the NEurope. We need soon to learn to talk of the Dark Queen of Winter since the White Queen has died.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 29, 2017, 06:38:59 AM »
"Be surprised, be very surprised".
"Well,  I never did".   and other scientific observations on the image below.
Oo, what a thriller!

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 29, 2017, 06:22:24 AM »
yes we get those snow squall lines either from Bay of Finland or from Ladoga, the eastern ones tend to stay in Savo and Karelia, though. 2010 was rather snowy later on also here (image of february) :

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 28, 2017, 08:40:45 AM »
Even for a place that gets a ton of snow, this was a record-breaking two days for Erie
Here almost all snow has instead melted out as the air flows turned westerly bringing in the Atlantic lows.
I'll take this under 40F not yet freezing weather over that any day. Too bad that people commonly mistake snow for cold.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 26, 2017, 05:30:50 AM »
Hi Sleepy! The amount of people thinking and possibly also believing the world is only about humans is still pretty high thus political stuff here is not lesser than back when. Even I had to put some more people on ignore. Welcome back.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 26, 2017, 03:25:56 AM »
Versus making one humongous roundabout and simply wishing everyone good luck! ;)

 :-) if I counted correctly it's got only 39 ramps and 9 bridges or tunnels, and it's only two-level. We no need those fricking roundabouts or turbine interchanges, we want faster corners.

Harder case to design in two-levels is the 5-way interchange as the odd number of roads cannot at least easily pass over each other symmetrically. The turbine interchange maybe the best option here.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 25, 2017, 12:36:30 PM »
I know there should be less carbon intensive traffic, but also constant stopping and accelerating is an issue. I know also there aren't many places where 3 highways meet. Drew (mainly for fun) a schematic for this kind of intersection. Lotsa up and downs but you get anywhere from anywhere. Lol. Some light entertainment for christmas or something like that. Six-way interchange. Made also a drawing of an 8-way interchange but that is too silly for this place :-D

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: December 24, 2017, 10:07:52 AM »
As there's clearly interest in the behavior of ENSO wrt SOI, the following blog report could be of interest :

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: December 23, 2017, 07:08:01 AM »

I don't understand the scale on the left. What are the units?

Standard Deviations?
Yeah, if that's the case this model result clearly states times of stability are over. This of course assuming they've used normal distribution function as their baseline to compare the model results. Like, assume no change, and also plot the results as there was no change. The resulting plot would show the trend as the machine sees it. That plot would show a downward trend wrt precipitation for western US almost all the on-going century. So the result would indeed be desertification style Karakum or Taklimakan where the mountains prevent the rains most of the year and any snow will evaporate straight up once spring starts. No doubt Rockies and Cascades still get some water, but nowhere near the amounts that they had this year. If we choose to believe these models, that is (no need to convince the deniers living in these areas.)

Waiting for the near-future mixed western-scifi movie where cowboys have become camel herders and tribal denier caravans fight each other with laser pistols over a non-salted oasis in Kansas. The name of the flick could be f.e. Mad Max 11? (If you want to cast realism aside, add an outside threat of Mexican llama-herders invading the area with force-fields and light sabers (yes, went to watch Star Wars VIII))

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: December 22, 2017, 12:09:27 PM »

wow. I'll go straightaway assuming that's for so called normal precipitation. Is this all because of the RRR? Abnormal precipitation could increase to fill in the gap? Umm. India and crumbling tarmac comes to mind.  :o ::) ???

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: December 20, 2017, 03:27:32 PM »
As permafrost thaws, Western Alaska village cemeteries sink into swampland
The article describes (with pictures) what is happening and what they are and aren't doing about it.
:o rembering the swamp bodies in northern Europe, in 5000 years some future archologist could be digging those out nd claiming these people were ritually murdered and cast in swamp. Or else, they were local chieftains who were honored by mummification.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: December 19, 2017, 04:39:21 AM »
Ah, the eternal mystical appearance of the sun every morning when it's not cloudy.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 18, 2017, 02:17:46 PM »
Trump will drop climate change from US National Security Strategy

- President to outline new approach in unprecedented White House speech
- Obama administration added climate to list of threats to US interests

Whoops ?

This looks like we could stop talking of Trump and Trumpistan here, the guy is irrelevant wrt as are many of the states of USA. I propose a statue of him to be erected somewhere on the Atlantic continental shelf, wholly under water in order to keep the onlookers safe.

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: December 18, 2017, 05:58:03 AM »
“Since Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt took over the top job at the agency in March, more than 700 employees have either retired, taken voluntary buyouts, or quit, signaling the second-highest exodus of employees from the agency in nearly a decade.”

More than 700 employees have left the EPA since Scott Pruitt took over

All according to the plan to diminsh the US population, I'd wager. The republicans are considering the slow poisoning of people a valid method of combating climate change. Some of us may disagree.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 18, 2017, 05:28:52 AM »
Hey all transgender people!  Have you heard the diversity of fetuses is becoming vulnerable in the republican mindset of entitlement? This is,for all science-based as evidence-based studies say most of them would like to have sex with their beautiful cousins. Yes, republican men can be beautiful too, there's nothing odd about that.

Ok. Now that this thread had been marked as hostile to the censorship bureau of CDC  please carry on.

To the people of future wondering wth this is about, this is from the times when a government considered certain words to be excluded from the language used by the officials of cdc. The opening paragraph contains many of them.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 17, 2017, 10:08:50 AM »
The finnish astornomical society, Ursa, ( ) has calculated where the meteor landed from received reports. Probably now the remnants are covered in snow, so there will be an attempt to find some of them in the spring.

So it happens the thing fell on about the remotest area possible to reach by anyone in Finland. Area's close to Russian border so using snowmobile or ATV requires permits and you'd need to have border patrol with you. You can walk or ski on the area freely and possibly meet one of the three persons living in the area. Think central Alaska 30 miles from nearest settlement of 10 people.

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