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Messages - snrjon

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Accuracy of poll predictions
« on: September 24, 2019, 06:36:28 PM »
A better poll might be to ask for P10, P50 and P90 estimates. At least then there's a chance that the result might get "in range" 😉

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 07, 2018, 07:41:10 PM »
The latest ((Sep 4) U. Bremen concentration image shows NW Passage (southern) to be all but open, it looks like:

Not according to the Canadian ice maps it isn't. There's plenty of old ice blocking the way still:

There is news that the S/V Thor has made it through the Bellot Strait, but I really wonder how they made it through the 9/10 to Tuktoyaktuk!? I guess this might be the only sailing transit this year.

The poll is closed.  People voted relatively high this year, compared to the votes in the June polls of the past 5 years:

I am a lurker the last few months, but one who uses past data to make future predictions I am surprised just how biased the community is. There is so much good science to read about here, but the leaning is strongly alarmist, based on these very clear results. There is a risk that this attitude could also bias the science if not careful.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 03, 2018, 03:20:02 PM »
Hi snrjon, I've answered you in the "stupid" questions thread (though I do dislike the name - should be "beginner" questions or whatever).,143.msg148292.html#msg148292

There's nothing wrong with a good stupid question.  ;D

Thanks for the answer. Question prompted by noting the DMI volume graph, where there is maybe another 2000-3000 cubic km to reach the peak, before net volume melting takes over.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: April 03, 2018, 03:15:04 PM »
Thanks for the quick reply!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 03, 2018, 07:49:48 AM »
Hi, noob question. Arctic sea ice volume increases until mid-April, while the sea ice extent typically peaks a month or so earlier. Melting from the edges is a very obvious cause of extent decrease, but what are the mechanisms that allow growth in volume for a month after the melting begins? Is it addition by freezing to the bottom surface, tectonic squeezing, snow, and what is the most important of these? Thanks for any pointers.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 05, 2017, 01:00:02 PM »
That is one scary chart with the inflection point in the 1990's. Clearly something has changed and the change appears to be persistent, if not permanent.

Hi there, I'm a newbie in posting, though lurking and trying to learn for some time. I find the information on this forum fascinating, and I think the graphics provide quite outstanding postings!

I was interested though to see the Barrow temp history brought up as an example of climate change. AFAIK Barrow is well characterised in the literature (Hinkel et al 2003) as a winter urban heat island, with a population that has grown from 300 mainly subsistence inhabitants to over 4000 "western lifestyle" over the length of the record.


Undoubtedly the ice extent in early winter in the Chukchi has significantly reduced in recent years, but is the Barrow temperature record change caused by development rather than mirroring the sea ice pattern?

If the Hinkel et al 2003 study has been superseded I would be interested to hear about it.

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