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Messages - FrostKing70

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 04:35:39 PM »
Let's be careful not to spend to much time and effort on dealing with a symptom of the problem...

2
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: November 21, 2019, 04:31:11 PM »
I wasn't aware until today that there is a 18.6 lunar tidal cycle.   The first article on Weather Underground mentioned it, and then I found the Nature article through Google search.  The article found a link between the 18.6 year lunar tidal cycle and El Nino:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33526-4

"Abstract
Even though El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a tremendous impact on global climate and society, its long-term forecast remains difficult. In this study, we discovered a statistically significant relationship between ENSO timing and the 18.6-year period lunar tidal cycle in the mature-phase (December–February) ENSO time-series during 1867–2015 and extending back to 1706 with proxy data. It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle, and La-Niña tended to occur in the 3rd, 12th, and 16th years. These tendencies were also confirmed by corresponding sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) distributions; particularly Pacific SST and SLP spatial patterns in the third La-Niña and the tenth El-Niño year well resemble those of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings contribute to understanding and forecasting long-term ENSO variability."

3
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 14, 2019, 11:06:02 PM »
Thank you again for the nice links!  I hadn't noticed the lower graph before.  Concerning to see the steady erosion of the ice mass, with the several years with a steep, dramatic drop in the summer (2010, 2012, 2016 and 2019).  Three of the four links to El Nino...


4
Antarctica / Getz Ice Shelf - Iceberg B-47
« on: October 18, 2019, 05:24:27 PM »


"ESA released a GIF on Thursday created from Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite images between Sept. 2 and Oct. 14. The animation shows the iceberg calving and then executing a graceful spin once free in the waters of the Amundsen Sea."

https://www.cnet.com/news/see-a-boston-sized-iceberg-break-off-antarctica-and-go-for-a-spin/

5
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: September 06, 2019, 09:43:15 PM »
Fascinating stuff, as usual!

Does anyone know if there is a similar graph for the basins, but done in percentage terms instead of GT?   

I stared at the graph for a while trying to understand why the orange (302) and red (305) lines were nearly flat.   Basin 302 feels correct, as the color coding is a mix of small gains and losses.   It took longer for it to sink in on basin 305, as most of the area shows significant loss.   

6
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: September 05, 2019, 07:38:12 PM »
It looks like Dorian will pass just south of Greenland as a Tropical Storm.  Any thoughts / predictions on impact to the SMB?

I am not sure how much will fall as rain versus snow at higher elevations...

7
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment
« on: September 05, 2019, 07:17:42 PM »
It is probably the industries which have to use the lights, not sure it matters much to the light bulb producers....

8
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment
« on: September 05, 2019, 07:16:45 PM »
They are also useful for keeping plants worm or water in liquid state (for wildlife) during short freezing periods; mainly because they emit so much heat!

9
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 02:41:55 PM »
Dorian now at 41.3 ACE and climbing:


10
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 02:38:58 PM »
For those interested in the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), here is the source I use:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic


11
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:21:34 PM »
Or a slightly older post referencing stalled hurricanes and rain potential:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extreme-hurricane-rainfall-expected-increase-warmer-world


12
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:10:24 PM »

13
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 28, 2019, 07:29:59 PM »
Some of the models are taking Dorian to borderline Cat 4 or Cat 4 strength before it reaches Florida.   I hope the intensity stays on the lower end.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 09:37:06 PM »
I expect a BOE to happen, but hope it never does.   "Hoping" was the key word in the poll for me....I never hope for a disaster, even when I expect it to happen.

15
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 23, 2019, 02:17:53 PM »
Thank you for putting all of the information here.  Is there a thread for GRACE and GRACE-FO?

16
2019 will be in the top 2 or 3 hottest years, making 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 the 6 hottest years on record.   Combine this information with the above about scientists underestimating the impacts and how quickly they will manifest and I get even more concerned that my new house will have a water view sooner than expected!

17
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 16, 2019, 08:29:07 PM »
I think 10 - 20 GT remaining seems about right.  The average is a bit less than that, but we are trending with greater loss, and the season might extend out a day or a few days.

18
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:49:39 PM »
I think I will buy some apple trees for the back yard!

19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:47:17 PM »
A few weeks ago (during heat wave) there was a prediction of an additional 50 GT of melt by the end of melt season.    I thought that seems low and predicted 100 to 125 GT.   How many GT have we lost since those posts?

20
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:42:06 PM »
Posted this in a different thread, might fit here better:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/July-2019-Earths-Hottest-Month-Recorded-History?cm_ven=cat6-widget

"2019 a lock to be among the 5 warmest years in Earth’s recorded history
The January through July year-to-date period was the tied with 2017 for the second warmest global temperatures on record, behind 2016, according to NOAA. According to their global annual temperature ranking outlook, it is virtually certain that 2019 will end among the top five warmest years in Earth’s history. This means that the six warmest years on record globally since 1880 will be the last six years--2014 through 2019."

21
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:41:06 PM »
Only a few more and I can be Frazil Ice, too!

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:40:09 PM »
Interesting article over at Wunderground:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/July-2019-Earths-Hottest-Month-Recorded-History?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Key part for me:

"2019 a lock to be among the 5 warmest years in Earth’s recorded history
The January through July year-to-date period was the tied with 2017 for the second warmest global temperatures on record, behind 2016, according to NOAA. According to their global annual temperature ranking outlook, it is virtually certain that 2019 will end among the top five warmest years in Earth’s history. This means that the six warmest years on record globally since 1880 will be the last six years--2014 through 2019."

23
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:37:28 PM »
I always wondered how much I needed to post to get rid of the lurker tag, now it is gone by Neven magic!

24
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:27:05 PM »
Simple rule of thumb which has served me well.   I still mess up sometimes, but try to read my post after it is written and ask myself "Would I say this to my children or spouse?"   If I wouldn't, I try to change it to something I would say to them...

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:23:12 PM »
Any storms / deep low pressure systems in the forecast for the second half of the month?

26
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:21:28 PM »
Unfortunately, low oil prices allow most people to make a short term economic decision to continue to buy ICE vehicles.   The change is coming, but slowly.

27
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 13, 2019, 10:27:30 PM »
As long as the individual models are consistent, it gives us a trend line.

I personally think the model including outflow from glaciers is more indicative of the real world.   Potato, potato...

modified to clarify ...."outflow from" glaciers...

28
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 13, 2019, 03:01:10 PM »
I thought it was interesting that a different model shows a ~150 GT difference from the other....

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 12, 2019, 10:21:05 PM »
Found this over at:

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Shows that 2019 is tracking nearly in step with 2012 for this metric.

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 02:54:11 PM »
To clarify my last post a bit.  Last daily SMB was 10 GT loss.   The forecast for the next 3-5 days looks like we will be in a similar SMB loss. 

If we lose 10 GT per day for the next 3-5 days, that is 30 - 50 GT, with several weeks left in the season.

If "only" lose 8 GT in the same period, we will lose 24 - 40 GT, again with several weeks left in the season

31
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 02:50:36 PM »
I think the 50 GT of future melt is a bit low.  I would say between 100 and 125 for the remainder of the year.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 03:50:44 PM »

33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 23, 2019, 05:17:54 PM »
Interesting graph of Greenland ice sheet mass loss 2002 to 2017.   Eyeballing the trend, it appears to be very predictable for this time frame.

There should be new data available later this year:

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

 

34
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 18, 2019, 08:47:24 PM »
I found this article interesting, especially the 2:12 video where they talk about the model results, and show the model progressing through year 2300.   

The screen capture is of the models at year 2300.  The pink areas in the picture represent exposed bedrock from the ice sheet retreat.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2883/study-predicts-more-long-term-sea-level-rise-from-greenland-ice/

35
I found this part to be a good summary, although bleak:

"Putting all these factors together and taking into account emissions since 2011 then results in a remaining carbon budget from 2018 onwards of 580GtCO2 for a 50% chance of keeping warming below 1.5C. This is less than 15 years of global emissions at current rates.

So, what does that mean?

This means that if we start reducing emissions steeply now and by the time we reach net-zero levels we have not emitted more than 580GtCO2, our best scientific understanding tells us have we expect a one-in-two chance that warming would be kept to 1.5C.

Moreover, if we want to be sure that this is also true until the end of the century, we’d have to aim to emit only 480GtCO2 until we reach net-zero instead. This is under 12 years of current emissions."

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 17, 2019, 03:22:45 PM »
Yes, you are correct.  I thought they were static, didn't realize they were clickable!

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 17, 2019, 02:53:35 PM »
Oren,

Looks like the 2019 picture was replaced with a duplicate of the 2012.   Would you please update the post to show 2019?

38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 17, 2019, 02:08:47 PM »
Do you have a prediction on when Baffin Bay will melt out?   It is probably in the 2019 Melt thread, haven't looked there yet today....

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 10, 2019, 06:09:23 AM »
I have been out for a few days, moving to a smaller house.   Do any of the reliable models show any improvement in the near future?

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 04:32:11 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct thread, but here goes!

Does anyone know if the recent Raikoke eruption is large enough to have a global temperature effect?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/26/this-volcano-just-erupted-after-nearly-century-silence-astronauts-captured-breathtaking-scene-miles-above/?utm_term=.ba01ec18759e

41
There are ways to make it easier to change in the future.  For example, if Congress were to pass a bill expanding or changing the EPA mandate, then there would be new rules to support the change.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:01:11 PM »
As others have said

This is going to happen at peak.

A question on the graph.  Intuitively, it seems like the 60 degree line should be in between the 90 and 30 degree lines.   Why is the 60 degree isolation lower than 30?

43
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 03, 2019, 06:50:49 PM »
This was posted in the 2019 melting season thread, but thought it would be a good fit here, as well.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html

Watch the ice melt out south of the Nares Strait in a few days!

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 03, 2019, 06:41:10 PM »
The Beaufort gyre ice destroyer is up and running, the bottom melt caused by all that +1 degree water is telling already. If the high pressure holds the Beaufort could be at 2-3 degrees in a week. I just hope we don't get a replay of 2012 when you can see big old ice floes disintegrate in days after being swept into water at 8 degrees.

 Below is a picture comparison between May 27th and June 2nd. I wonder just how much bottom melt there was in this de compacted pack last month?

(edit)

 I'll answer my own question here https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html and it's worse than I expected.

Thank you for the link to the animation.   In addition to what you point out in Beaufort, I was surprised at how quickly the outlet of the Nares Strait went ice free.

45
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 31, 2019, 09:57:05 PM »
Oops, I confused "mean" and "median"!

An example with a small data set:

Data :  1,2,3,16,18

This data set has 5 data points which sum to 40.

The average is the sum divided by the number of data points so 40/5 = 8, which is the same as the mean

The median is the middle number when the data is arranged numerically, so the median for this data set is 3

46
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: May 31, 2019, 09:53:51 PM »
I went with 4-5, as the current consensus is 3.3, but that has increased in the last decade as we understand the world better.   

I project that it will increase again over the next decade as our knowledge grows and, unfortunately, our emissions stay the same or increase slightly.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 30, 2019, 03:19:14 PM »
Very curious!  I didn't notice before that in 2016 the ice increased in June in the Beaufort.   I assume (there's that word again!) that ice was not created in June in the Arctic, was this movement of ice from elsewhere?

48
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: May 28, 2019, 09:29:29 PM »
Unfortunately, I feel that 2030-2039 is too optimistic, I went with 2040-2049.

Too many emissions in the United States, with climate change denialists currently in office, as well as a large demand from a growing middle class around the world.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 23, 2019, 10:30:57 PM »
Polar bears can swim a loooonnnnnggggg way.....

https://news.mongabay.com/2012/05/just-how-far-can-a-polar-bear-swim/

"Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are capable of swimming incredible distances, according to a new study published in Zoology, which recorded polar bears regularly swimming over 30 miles (48 kilometers) and, in one case, as far as 220 miles (354 kilometers). The researchers believe the ability of polar bears to tackle such long-distance swims may help them survive as seasonal sea ice vanishes due to climate change."

50
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: May 21, 2019, 04:09:22 PM »
I don't think this is the identical chart that I remember seeing, but similar, for those who haven't seen it recently:

from:  https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=67

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