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Messages - wolfpack513

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1
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 12, 2020, 01:52:25 AM »
I started the thread/poll and it was for the annual average growth rate at Mauna Loa: January-December 2.92 ppm.  A centered 4-month average may be the technical but not what I had in mind.  I’ll specify next time. 

2
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 09, 2020, 01:12:17 AM »
My estimate was right on the number from earlier post.   NOAA released 2019’s mean CO2 level: 411.44 ppm.  Up 2.92 ppm over 2018. 

3
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 08, 2020, 07:05:53 PM »
Copernicus(ERA5) came down today.  December 2019 tied with 2015 as the warmest December on record.  The calendar year 2019 was the 2nd warmest on record behind 2016.   2019 was +0.59°C above the 1981-2010 average or ~+1.20°C.  2016 was +0.63°C for the year.

4
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 06, 2020, 01:37:42 AM »
JMA is one of the first to release 2019 global mean temperature.  Tied for 2nd warmest with 2015. Of course 2016 still holds the record. 

Biggest take away is look at the jump in the 5-year average (blue-line). Of course 2015-16 & 19 had El Niño influence but still a big step up.  The next closest comparison would be maybe the step up in the late 1970s?

5
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 01, 2020, 06:17:16 PM »
I estimated 411.73 ppm for December 2019 using NOAA data.  That's a growth rate of 2.66 ppm over December 2018.  This puts 2019's annual average growth rate at 2.92 ppm. This will be close to 1998 and just under 2015 & 2016.  Those 3 years of course were associated with high end El Niños.

Official data should come down from NOAA in the next week.  Also, just noticed that technically I did the poll wrong: there's no choice for 2.91 to 3 ppm.  Whoops.   

6
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 16, 2019, 07:24:05 PM »
NOAA & GISS place November 2019 as 2nd warmest November on record behind November 2015. 

2019 is also clearly the 2nd warmest YTD on record after 2016.

7
Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: December 13, 2019, 06:27:42 PM »
With 2019 emissions estimates now in, we’ve got updated mitigation curves with remaining carbon budgets. 

Bunny slopes to black diamonds in the last few decades.  2.0°C & 1.5°C targets. 

8
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 13, 2019, 06:24:15 PM »
Reanalysis puts daily GMST anomalies at around the highest values of the entire year of 2019. 

http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

9
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2019, 05:29:56 PM »
But what does that mean? It tells us that the 3.4 region lags global CO2 by about 5 month?

Whoops brain fart.  I have it backwards.  The CO2 growth rate lags ENSO.  the peaks in CO2 growth rate lag Niño 3.4 by ~4-6 months. 

10
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2019, 04:46:57 AM »
**Edit** chart is backwards.  Should say CO2 growth rate lags ENSO by 5 months.

Here's NOAA monthly CO2 growth rates vs Niño 3.4 ONIs.  I lagged CO2 Growth rate by 5 months and seemed to line up with NIÑO 3.4 ONI.

11
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 04, 2019, 09:46:05 PM »
November 2019 tied 2016 on Copernicus for warmest November on record. 

This is an interesting time of the year because the ENSO cycle lag on GMST is either ramping up or ramping down.  In the 2015-2016 super Niño the 2 highest monthly anomalies were in February & March 2016.  That's why it took until 2015 to break 1998's February record on GISS.

12
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 04, 2019, 02:04:24 AM »
Nice catch Hefaistos.  Yea I was playing around with the polynomial and  forgot to make note of it.  I increased it to the 4th degree.  My understanding in this regression is limited and was concerned about overfitting but wanted something other than just linear. 

I use the monthly data from: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt

 November 2019 was just an estimate based on daily/weekly data until the monthly value comes down. 

13
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 02, 2019, 06:39:02 PM »
If you correct for ENSO, 2019 could finish above 2016 but actual anomalies that's not going to happen.

Here's the running 10-month for BEST which includes October 2019.  Look how much lower this year is compared to the peak in 2016.  Even if November & December 2019 beat 2016 it still wouldn't be enough.


14
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 02, 2019, 05:33:24 PM »
I calculated 410.30 ppm for November 2019 from NOAA Mauna Loa data.  Official data will come down in a few days.

That's a growth rate of 2.28 ppm over November 2018.  Trailing 12-month average is now beginning to dip below the most recent peak.  Looks like 2019 will come in around ~2.90 ppm but of course that depends on the next 4 weeks.

15
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 20, 2019, 03:12:38 PM »
NOAA & Berkeley Earth also came in at 2nd warmest October behind 2015.

Here's overlapping 30-year trends for Berkeley Earth.  Trend has slowly risen from 0.18° per decade starting in the early 1970's to currently 0.20°C per decade.

16
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 15, 2019, 03:48:51 PM »
JMA places October 2019 at 2nd warmest October on record.  JMA's coverage at the poles is sparse which is a big difference from Copernicus.  Copernicus place October 2019 as the warmest just over October 2015.

17
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 13, 2019, 03:24:16 PM »
NOAA's November 11 reading dropped below 410 ppm at Mauna Loa.  Last daily reading below 410 ppm?

18
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 08, 2019, 01:28:45 AM »
October 2019 came in at +2.53 ppm over October 2018.  Looks like 12-month rate running average is approaching the next peak: just under 3.0 ppm. 

19
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 02, 2019, 09:13:02 PM »
NCEP Reanalysis came in very warm for October.  Conversion to GISS is looking like >+1.00°C for October 2019.  October GISS record is +1.08°C in 2015. 

20
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:10:21 PM »
Berkeley Earth came in at warmest September on record.  Of course GISS, JMA & NOAA were just below 2016.

For me the trends are more interesting than individual months.  Here's overlapping 30-year Berkeley Earth trends.  1970-1999: 0.17°C per decade, 1980-2009: 0.18°C per decade & 1990-2019: 0.20°C decade. 

21
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:46:00 AM »
Using a 5-year average?  Deniers do the same thing.  Be careful with cherry picking, it goes both ways.  Only 18 ONIs (ENSO) were at or below 0.0°C in the last 5 years.  2011-2015 there were 33 ONIs below 0.0°C.

20-year smooths is about as low as I like to go due to internal climate variability.  Still gives you about +1.2°C on BEST.  At current pace that's just under 15 years before +1.5°C

22
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 29, 2019, 07:01:34 PM »
Preliminary September NOAA CO2 growth rate.  Doesn't include today or the 30th but shouldn't change much.  September 2019 Average will be around 408.50 ppm.  Almost exactly 3 ppm growth rate over 2018.  The running 12-month average growth rate is also now almost exactly 3 ppm.

23
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 23, 2019, 06:43:50 PM »
Last week was also the bottom in 2018.  I believe that's earlier than usual so 2019 will likely go slightly lower for a weekly average.

24
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 19, 2019, 04:19:11 PM »
Thanks Nanning! :D   

Take Berkeley Earth global mean temperature for example.  The 20-year running average clearly shows steady warming since the 1970s which is much different than warming rates the prior 120 years.  The current warming rate of 2°C/century is 3 times that of the linear trend since 1850.

25
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:14:24 PM »
I like those graphs BornFromTheVoid, they have the base line, clear axis names, units and a zero point :) .
The only thing that's missing is the delta_T from pre-industrial to the base line 1981-2010. But hardly anyone puts that in.

Except that JMA use's a linear trend for a non-linear dataset.  The current rate of warming is more than double the 1890-2019 rate.  Very misleading to have that 0.70°C/Century on the chart.

26
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:22:33 PM »
Global datasets are starting to come down for August 2019.  NOAA came in at +0.92°C which ties for 2nd warmest August.  YTD 2019 is at 3rd warmest behind 2016 & 2017. 

In 2017 September-December tails off as 2015 soars.  So 2019 could finish 2nd warmest year or 2015 may pass 2019 through December & this year finishes 3rd warmest.

**GISS-LOTI** came down right after this.  +0.90°C.  2nd warmest (alone) on NASA's dataset.

27
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 07, 2019, 09:32:02 PM »
AVISO(JASON-3) global mean sea level updated through July 5, 2019.  You can see the slight jump the past 12 months due to the El Niño.  Level has also been above the linear trend for 4 years now.  With Acceleration GMSL should continue to outpace 1993-2019 linear regression.

28
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 06, 2019, 09:51:49 AM »
August 2019 came in at 409.95 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 2.96 ppm over August 2018.  The running 12-month average is at ~2.8 ppm, the 2nd highest level in the last 14 years after the 2015-2016 super Niño. 

29
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 27, 2019, 10:32:38 AM »
Reanalysis from Moyhu's site is on track for 2nd warmest August on GISS.  2016's +1.02°C is likely out of reach(we'll see).  Moyhu's latest reanalysis version hit July on the dot.  Through the 24th of August reanalyses is at +0.95°C GISS equivalent.  http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

30
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 22, 2019, 10:55:26 AM »
Touching more on the acceleration of the last 50 years.  Here's BEST 1970-2019 with overlapping 30-year trends.  Each 30-year rate has been increasing starting with 1970-1999.  In order here's the rates: 1.60°C/century, 1.80°C/century & 2.00°C/century.

31
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:25:39 PM »
Add NOAA & BEST to the list of July 2019 as warmest on record.  GISS should be there too once it's released.  BEST came in at +0.84°C above the 1950-1981 baseline.  A fairly large margin over the previous record: July 2016 +0.72°C.

32
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: August 15, 2019, 02:41:55 PM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade².

It looks like a wave with a very regular period, but it's not seasonal as the period is longer than a year.. What's up with that?

Yea I've thought about this a lot too.  Obviously ENSO plays a big role but ENSO doesn't following regular period like this chart shows/suggests.  What's behind the trough to peak growth from  2012-2013? ENSO warmed slightly out of the 2011 La Niña but it was still cool-neutral.

33
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 14, 2019, 04:41:20 PM »
July tied with 2016 for warmest on record on JMA.  NOAA, GISS & BEST will be coming down in the next couple of days.  I would expect some if not all of these datasets at warmest on record for July 2019.

34
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: August 08, 2019, 03:05:54 PM »
Through July, 2019's growth rate is 3.10 ppm.  Only one year has finished above 3.00 ppm: 2016 at 3.01 ppm.   1998 & 2015 finished just below a 3 ppm growth rate.

35
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: August 07, 2019, 09:13:45 PM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade². 

36
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 31, 2019, 02:51:42 PM »
An historically strong kelvin wave passed right over Hawaii(155°W) earlier this month.  Like the MJO these convectively active & inactive phases have major impacts on local tropical convection & changes in mixing/circulations.  There is no grand conspiracy, abnormal/volatile measurements of CO2 are processed through QC. The entire point of Mauna Loa is to measure a well mixed CO2 concentration that is representative of global levels.  Local contamination would make these useless. 

37
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 30, 2019, 10:36:55 AM »
July 2019 is looking like another monthly record.  Moyhu reanalysis through July 27th translates to +0.93°C GISS-LOTI equivalent.  July 2016 is the current record: +0.85°C.  http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

38
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 25, 2019, 06:30:11 PM »
Using BEST(Berkeley Earth) I would estimate that we've warmed nearly 1.3°C since preindustrial.  That 1.5°C target is coming soon.  Lets hope that CCS or BECCS works.  :(

39
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 24, 2019, 03:34:04 PM »
Monthly temperatures are interesting especially when it's a record, however there is still a lot of internal variability month to month.  More interestingly is that the 30-year trends have been slowly increasing.  The current GISS-LOTI 30-year trend is +0.20°C per decade.  Depending on your baseline we're about 5-15 years from the 1.5°C above preindustrial warming.

40
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 22, 2019, 02:37:10 PM »
Your link for ncep shows a little below, not well above:
2019   Jul   0.397
2016   Jul   0.414

Those numbers are NCEP reanalysis departures.  Scroll down to bottom you will find GISS-LOTI adjusted using these NCEP numbers.  Those 2016 numbers are done with earlier meshing/infilling.  He notes in his blog that this is updated frequently which reduces estimation errors.   

41
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 22, 2019, 10:50:22 AM »
NCEP reanalysis on http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html has July 2019 so far well above the previous record of 2016.  GISS-LOTI adjusted on Moyhu is currently +0.95°C.  The 2016 record is +0.85°C.   

42
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 18, 2019, 05:19:57 PM »
No surprise but another dataset with June 2019 as the warmest June on record.  NOAA(NCDC) came in at +0.95°C for June 2019.  This is just above 2016's +0.93°C.

43
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 16, 2019, 03:23:44 PM »
Steady warming began in the late 1960s as seen by the green linear fit.  However, you will notice that the 12-month running mean has been above that 0.18°C/decade since 2014.  The 30-year linear trend is now ~0.20°C so we may not see the blue or red line cross below that linear regression as much as before. 

*this is GISS-LOTI data updated through June 2019.

44
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 16, 2019, 01:05:36 AM »
Surprised by no mention of the big June GISS-LOTI record of +0.93°C.  2019 beat 2016 by 0.11°C which is a pretty large margin for this time of the year. 

45
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 13, 2019, 07:30:19 PM »
Nice chart. What's the slope of the line? Eyeballing suggests growth rate (of the annual increase) of about 0.7 ppm per decade. I.e. the regression would predict an annual growth rate of about 3.3 ppm in a decade (2.6 + 0.7).

Sorry for the delay.  Slope is roughly 0.07 ppm per year or as you estimated 0.70 ppm per decade.  Regardless of emissions I think the slope may drop a hair the next couple of years because the 2015-2016 spike was so large.  I'll include the slope on the chart next month.

46
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 10, 2019, 03:44:50 PM »
Updated graphic with official June 2019 numbers: 413.92 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.13 ppm.
 The running 12-month mean is now back up to 2.6 ppm/year. 

A couple important things.  This is a chart of rates so a positive linear regression slope = acceleration.  I picked 2006 for the start of my data for 2 important reasons.  2006-2007 was a weak El Niño just like this year.  2006-2007 was also the peak of global economic growth before the 2008-2009 great recession.  That way you can't complain about endpoints.


47
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: July 08, 2019, 01:06:42 AM »
This PETM occurred over 1000s of years so the comparison is silly.  We have a close handle on radiative forcing changes and we’re at 3.1 W/m² above preindustrial.  We’re not sniffing those numbers by 2100 even with some acceleration.  Emissions are going to drop off long before we get above 3°C due economic constraints. 

48
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: July 05, 2019, 12:56:55 AM »
Re: Magnitude of future warming

can you for the sake of making sure we're all talking the same thin your definition of 19th century ?

no offense meant but we all know that some people have issues with those terms.

the 19th century covers the years 1800-1899, please confirm that this is the period we talk here, thanks.

Yes, Schurer et al. 2017 is specifically about underestimated 19th century warming.  The paper states that 1850-1899 warming may be underestimated by 0.1-0.2°C(mostly due to higher than normal volcanic activity).

If this is true then global mean temperature is closer to 1.3-1.4°C above preindustrial.  That would mean we’ve got 5-10 years until +1.5°C..

49
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: July 04, 2019, 01:20:12 AM »
Depending on your source we’re closer to 1.5°C than most realize.  5-year smooth above preindustrial is the preferred measurement.  Maybe less than decade depending on your benchmark.

GISS LOTI is approaching +1.2°C and currently warming at 0.2°C per decade.  You could even tack on another 0.1-0.2°C of warming based on Schurer et al. 2017 … that argues we’ve underestimated 19th century warming.

50
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 02, 2019, 11:54:04 PM »
Yea current CO2 growth rates are about 2.6 ppm per year.  That's why I use a 12-month smooth to pick out inter-seasonal variability like ENSO.  June 2019's growth rate came in just over 3.00 ppm.  That pulls the 12-month smooth up to the long term linear trend of ~2.6 ppm per year.

So 450 ppm by 2034.

The growth rate is increasing therefore accelerating.  It will be 3 ppm/year in the next 5-10 years.

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