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Messages - Wipneus

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1
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: November 06, 2019, 08:18:59 PM »
The cracks are so wide now that we can see an iceberg breaking off and toppling over, withing the crack. If I am not mistaken of course.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November 2019)
« on: November 04, 2019, 09:42:14 AM »
Thickness map, comparisons with previous years and their diff's. Click for full size.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November 2019)
« on: November 04, 2019, 09:35:13 AM »
Update Fram volume export graph. The export is increasing, not quite as fast as expected.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November 2019)
« on: November 04, 2019, 09:30:19 AM »
Update volume and volume-anomaly graphs. 2012, 2016 and 2019 are very close.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November 2019)
« on: November 04, 2019, 09:20:44 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated. Volume calculated from thickness was 6.52[1000km3] on 31st October, third lowest for the day. 2012 and 2016 had a lower volume.

Here is the animation.

7
Some people have use for the updated regional data files:


daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

8
Fram volume export is still summer-low.

9
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

10
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data up to 15 October. Volume was 5.16 [1000km3], second lowest (after 2012) for the day.

Here is the animation for October thus far.

11
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 19, 2019, 07:55:14 PM »
Crack detail, images 12 days apart. The widening getting faster mainly from the Wesy side.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:51:53 AM »
Finally the thickness map comparisons. Here are thickness map, compared with previous years and their diff's on the 10th of September (approximate day of annual minimum).

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:38:20 AM »
Finally a linear trend. The 2019 data point lies near perfect on the trend line. That means that the zero ice extrapolation has not shifted either and stays at 2032. That, and the fact that is has not changed much for many years gives some confidence to this date.

So for comparison I have added the same graph that I posted in 2012: also a 2032 zero ice extrapolation. The 'prediction' for 2019 is spot-on.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:29:10 AM »
Same as the previous but now a Gompertz regression, preferred by some. The Gompertz function approaches but never reaches zero, but still the same postponement to later and later dates is clear.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:24:20 AM »
Continuing discussion this, here is an attempt to show how the estimates of zero ice have been shifting. It is the same graph as in the previous post with extrapolations form former years added.
Here the dark blue line is the extrapolation using data up to 2018; The next greenish line data up to 2017
And so fort.
Many years the zero ice prediction was close to 2015 but that has been postponed, on average 1 year every year for the last 6 years or so.
 

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:15:12 AM »
Here is the exponential fit. The 2019 minimum is above the trend, shifting the extrapolated zero ice after  2025 where with only data up to 2018 it was 2014.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:07:36 AM »
The graphs updated with the annual minima.
Here is my collection of possible math fits to the timeline.

This graph was originally as a reply posted on the ASI blog. In those days the minima closely followed an exponential decline.
Not so in recent years. Every year the extrapolated day of zero ice is postponed about one year. Similar for most other mathematical functions. More about that in the next posts. 

A click will give you a slightly better image.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 09:57:04 AM »
Continuing with the graphs...

Here is the updated Fram volume export graph. September export was below normal.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 05, 2019, 09:13:14 AM »
More graphs to prepare (the ones with annual minimum), but that will be much later. Paint job to do.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 05, 2019, 09:04:04 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 05, 2019, 08:57:45 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated. Volume calculated from thickness was 4.57[1000km3] on 30th September, second lowest for the day.
The 2019 minimum was around the 10th, 4.06[1000km3]. As these number are not exactly the same as the official PIOMAS volume numbers, wait for the release of those.

Here is the animation.


23
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 26, 2019, 09:37:24 AM »
Progress report: cracks are extending and widening everywhere. Animation ( images should differ 12 days) scaled to 50m/pix for an overview. Images are aligned at the glacier front.


24
Some people have use for the updated regional data files:

The daily data:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

25
And the Fram volume export.

26
Here are the updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs. Click to enlarge.

27
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated to the 15th of September. Volume (calculated from thickness) on that date was 4.06 [1000km3], second lowest for the day. The number  have been nearly constant at 4.05-4.06 for several days. Because my calculation sometimes differ with the official volume data by 0.01 I do not know if we have reached the minimum (my feeling is, it has).

Here is the animation of September thus far. 

28
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 16, 2019, 07:04:01 AM »
Wipneus, thank you very much.
Could you give me a link to that Sentinel B source - if I open this programme, there is no actual photograph available (https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=-75.17015590641843&lng=-101.28536224365234&zoom=11&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=0.2&gamma=1.0&time=2018-08-01%7C2019-02-16&atmFilter=&showDates=true)


Stephan, I list and download from ESA's scihub using scripts provided by them.
The full flename of the download is:
S2B_MSIL1C_20190914T151259_N0208_R139_T14CMB_20190914T180019.zip
of use may be the productid:
'3ddd27b9-4efa-4bfb-a5b8-22cb80cd0662'

29
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:12:36 AM »
First visible light images from Sentinel 2 of the Pine Island Glacier.
The first image present the overview in reduced resolution (50m/pix). Then a detail in the native resolution of 10m/pixel.

30
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 04, 2019, 04:07:09 PM »
Sorry for the confusion. The images are 2019-08-20 and 2019-09-01 (12 days is the return time of the Sentinel satellite for the same orbital position).

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 04, 2019, 02:55:55 PM »

That is a very good animation, really shows the bad state of the ice. How do you get the original pictures? Can you send a link?
Thanks

V. these are "original pictures" generated by me from binary data from the University of Hamburg.

Perhaps have a look at the first few posts in this thread for more explanations. The current location of the data files are here:
ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:07:31 AM »
A late century drop in extent shows there are still possibilities for second lowest place ( in my limited data set).

Here is an animation of the Arctic Basin compared with 2012. Click to start.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:02:49 AM »
The Google API that I am using to automatically update data and graphs has stopped working for me  ("Internal Server Error"). For the moment I am updating some files manually. Send me a PM if you favorite file is still from the 8th of August.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:52:08 AM »
The thickness map on 2019-08-31, compared with previous years and the differences. All need a click for full size.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:47:03 AM »
Looking at the graph I think 2019 is now guaranteed a 2nd place finish?

Yes

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:46:25 AM »
Fram volume export was about normal for August: low.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:42:20 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:28:36 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated (official volume data not yet). Volume on 31st August was 4.17 [1000km3], second lowest behind 2012 (3.93[1000km3]).

Here is the animation for August.

40
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:52:14 AM »
Update, compare with https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,429.msg220359.html#msg220359

Crack keeps getting wider, very fast in comparison with usual speeds.

41
I have trouble uploading data and graphs to the 'arctischepinguin' google site. So the updates will be delayed until the google errors are resolved or I have found time to do it manually.

42
And the updated Fram volume export graph.

43
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

44
Here is the animation for August until now.

45
PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated., last date was 2019-08-17. Volume calculated from thickness was 4.81 [1000km3], second lowest behind 2012 (4.68 [1000km3]).

graphs are being prepared...

46
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: August 09, 2019, 08:48:20 AM »
The cracks are still widening as this detail shows.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« on: August 04, 2019, 07:43:34 PM »
Wipneus, the thickness map in your post #2992 is last year's map not this year's.

Fixed, thanks for the notice.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« on: August 04, 2019, 09:22:53 AM »
2019-0-31 thickness map, a comparison with previous years and their differences (need clicks for the true size).

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« on: August 04, 2019, 09:16:23 AM »
Fram volume export is low as expected for July.

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