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Messages - Viggy

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 01:30:56 AM »
Made a JAXA extent forecast of 2 - 2.5M in early July and I'm doubling down on it. These conditions are ridiculous and the model runs show a lower and lower low as the event approaches.

This upcoming week is incredibly active globally!

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 06:15:21 AM »
I dont see how one can look at the forecast for the next 7 days and summarize that it would be good for the ice. I also think the whole compactness discussion is moot given how mobile the ice pack has been but the next week can shed a lot more light on that discussion as well.

We literally have a polar dipole positioned in such a way from days 2 - 7 that it continuously pushes CAB ice from the Kara to the Chukchi seas, rotating over the Laptev and ESS in the process. The waters there are incredibly warm so I see sea ice dispersing and getting destroyed. If by some miracle, the CAB is significantly more 'compact' than we imagine, then the extent decreases should almost stop due to dispersion of this supposedly thick, compact ice. The higher pressure over the Kara and Barents should also cause dispersion by pulling the ice into their centers.

I think the severity of the season should be pretty apparent by then and on track for a new record but just for good measure, both the GFS and ECMWF are showing HPs reestablishing over the entire Arctic after day 8 ...

3
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 10:10:20 PM »
I did not go personal without a reason. Gerontocrat should not ask for silence in the data thread or any other thread if then he makes a “deposition” here and there. He is not entitled to make more noise in the data thread than anybody else.

I don’t want to put off anybody’s efforts, anyway the guy is pretty tough skin, I don’t think I will really upset him and it is no longer my intention.

What the hell is wrong with you Gandul?

If you want better data, come up with a format that you think is better and then post it daily without fail year after year. It’s that freaking simple.

People believing that everyone should heed their opinions just because they have one, while they sit at the back of the bus and put in no actual effort (atleast not to the level of consistency of Juan or Geron), are always the first who should be ignored.

Get off your damn rocking chair and work, if you don’t like how things are ... your mindset is freaking appalling

4
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 04:40:07 AM »

The forum has lost quality and I am angry about it. I suspect the new moderation system has not done other than accelerating the downhill.


TLDR - Everyone is wrong except the people I agree with and they dont post here often so I am going to call out the good work and daily, consistent efforts of the people who are here, because "I AM ANGRY" that things have changed!

Its really childish to go poster by poster and say what they did wrong in your eyes, in order to justify some falsified sense of superiority. People are literally just trying to do their best to contribute to a subject they are interested in.

If you wouldn't be a dick to a random group of strangers in real life, its not necessary online either. Its shocking to me that people are so dissociated with their online persona that they care not for how they represent themselves. Just abjectly disappointing.

5
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 12:13:26 AM »
Would be nice if there was a simple term for us.

My inspiration is the Jews who fought back in the Warsaw Ghetto uprising rather than submit to the assembly line death march. They had no chance to get out alive, but they caused the bad guys to expend resources which made a difference to some anonymous people they would never know. The people on Flight 93 did something similar.


Can we not conflate you having a muddled viewpoint with people who fought and died in the holocaust or people who fought against a life or death hijacking situation. It really minimizes the struggles they went through when you use it as some sort of rallying crying for under-represented views on a forum tracking arctic sea ice.

6
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 18, 2020, 10:58:36 PM »
THAT ISN'T THE POINT OF FORUMS!


How is this:

I'm starting to notice a lot of people pushing back against BLM. The main agreement seems to be that if black military-aged-males commit the majority of the homicides despite being only 6% of the population, of course they have more violent interactions with the cops.  I'm having trouble finding data that can push back against this narrative.


Data is easy to find when you look for it - https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-6.xls

One, you are patently wrong. Two, escalation from cops which has been documented over and over again is clearly out of sight and out of mind for you.

Three, I love that racists can’t help but out themselves

Lastly, ‘Black-military-aged-males‘ creates a nice scary image but Black’ adults’ is a significantly more effective and less charged way to represent the same idea. But, of course you knew that when you intentionally chose your words.

7
Permafrost / Re: Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 12:06:41 PM »
Airplane trail?

Pretty positive that's it.
Normally there would be hundreds of them in various states of dissipation, forming a veil making it difficult to so clearly see single ones:


This would make for a fascinating research paper! A prolonged, one time event (hopefully) to get data on how directly we affect our environment (positive or negative feedback, notwithstanding)

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 09:20:49 AM »
Looking at Worldview, I didnt think it would be a 100k+ day ... the fact that we still lost 145k today is truly concerning.

Edit coz the discussion is moving so fast that I didnt realize Juan had already posted the number today!


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:11:26 AM »
EC and GFS seem to agree that the high pressure dominance will end at day 7, which is within a day or two of when high pressure dominance ended in 2011. 

So, we have been following along on this extreme high pressure regime since it started in late June/early July. And if I recall correctly, the models have quite often tried to dissipate it in the 5-10 day range only for the HP to persist without change.

Does anyone have data they can provide as to how accurate the models have been past day 5 in hindsight?

I ask because I've noticed a continuous trend to downplay the current events (as Friv noted) based on single model runs that are too far out to be reliable. The next 5 days on the Euro and GFS are mostly in agreement as to there being a persistent HP that slightly expands and moves towards the Beaufort/Chukchi  on day 4-5. That implies to me that this current event will continue without a major pause.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 12:50:18 PM »
There are many similarities. Another. Until this summer, in 2011 there was a record of the earliest opening of the Northeast Passage.


Really cool graph and data! Hadn't seen that before!

And I don't disagree that 2020 has some similarities with 2011. But 2011 hit the brakes hard over the next few days and I don't see anything in the forecasts that predict a similar slowdown this year.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 12:18:56 PM »

There is a high probability that the September minimum of 2012 will stand. In July 2011, on July 20, the ice extent was 400 thousand km2 ahead of 2007, but the 2007 record was not broken.
The current situation does not guarantee a catastrophe in September.

I think we might be extrapolating from a single data point.

Unless I am very mistaken, both the GFS and ECMWF show a string of Low Pressures pushing a ton of heat right over all the open water that has been heating up in the Laptev and towards the pole. Meanwhile, there is a ton of sea ice near 70 degrees in the Beaufort that can melt late into the season.

Personally, I think the 2012 low will be broken before September. Especially if D5-10 on the forecasts confirm, not only are be going to be absolutely destroying the CAB, we are also going to be pushing an epic amount of ice out towards the Fram and causing the ice to bulge out towards the warmer lower latitudes.

I cannot remember any parallels to the action this year, so comparing it to 2011, just because it was similarly lower than the previous record, seems flawed.

12
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 07:21:28 PM »
Im going to keep this short per BL's request. Evaluating a post without considering the context of the poster's previous content, is pointless. Go through his post history in the context of the threads they were posted in and its obvious that unrelated/misleading content has been a modus operandi.

Providing a long reply to a baseless post would only serve to legitimize it and I did not wish to aid in the derailment of the great discussion we have on this forum

13
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 09:34:37 AM »
The delusions of someone who thinks his long winded posts equate to plausible deniability ...

The hubris of asking the hardworking moderation team, who he himself stresses out on daily basis, to censor dissent to his pointless, rambling word salads ...

They are cartoonish archetypes whose ideas are not (and should not be) taken seriously.

Oren has a lot more faith in humanity than me because your actions reek of intentionality to me. I am sorry if I come across harshly but I refuse to believe that people have this little capacity for self-reflection.

14
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 08:10:41 AM »

There seems to be a lot of mind reading going on here and its seems like a deflection to avoid discussing matters of substance.

As bl says, "play the ball, not the man".

Your last posts were about -10C in the tallest peaks of the Himalayas being weird weather and a continued insistence on discussing the surface temperature over sea ice centering around 0C being a harbringer of normalizing weather. Neither of those are matters of substance.

Echo chambers are inherent in opinion based forums because people gravitate to viewpoints that support their world view. Science and evidence based discussions are not opinions or viewpoints. Everything being discussed here, can ultimately be proven or disproven based on data and an application of scientific first principles.

A facetious and lengthy post about echo chambers here is about as genuine as posting the same to a medical forum discussing Covid and asking people to make sure to account for the views of covid denialists and anti-vaccers.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 12, 2020, 07:33:27 AM »
.. says an optimist . :) b.c.

Haha, I'm optimistic about my pessimistic forecast!

I guess my rationale for the low forecast is centered around the absolutely astounding SST anomalies in the Laptev and Kara Seas. It has been consistently increasing through the summer days and I can only see the persistent high pressure adding to it.

Whenever the inevitable Low Pressure system moves through that area in the late season, the mixing of all that warm sea water into the CAB ice is going to absolutely wreck extents.

Also, I think extent drops are more indicative of phase changes than incremental melting. And phase changes cause unanticipated-ly large drops (2012 being almost a 1M lower in extent that the previous record low of 2007).

16
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 07:15:54 AM »
I really hope someone is at least paying you for the condescending BS and lengthy attempts at derailing threads, Phoenix ...

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 11, 2020, 06:39:54 PM »
I’m always quite pessimistic, so why change now?

JAXA: 2.0 - 2.5, High Confidence
NSIDC: 2.5 - 3.0, High Confidence

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:54:37 PM »

The surface temperature of melting ice is always going to be zero until the ice has melted and turned into water - that's thermodynamics -

Attached is the latest DMI 80N temperature chart. It shows the 2m temps coming down from an above normal peak. The forecast calls for a further decline in a few days. If it's not clear, I'm referring to temps at 2m, not at 0m.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

What exactly is the value of this insanity? Temperature at 0m is the around 0C (in the summer) because there is ice at 0m.

Temperature at 2m is close enough to the ice to be anchored around a very tight range around 0C during the summer months. You clearly know and understand this based on previous posts. Yea, there may be tiny fluctuations but there is absolutely zero analytical value in looking at a snapshot of 1 week and calling peaks and declines.

Stop attempting to derail constructive conversation because you are bored at home during Covid or whatever your affliction is.

19
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:36:24 PM »
I'm assuming said individual doesn't "help out" people of color.

You might be surprised. Most midwestern racists I know would help any individual without hesitation. Their racism is focused on erosion of their culture rather than outward hatred. If you saw one of them interacting with a person of color, you probably would have no idea they were racist. Of course their inward xenophobic racism is still a scourge on society that does harm to all people in myriad ways, and I don't hesitate to tell them that. I'll talk with them about many issues, but I'm not going to concede on anything that I believe to be fascist.

I have had plenty of racists in Ohio, Missouri, Tennessee  and Georgia say outwardly racists things to me so no, I wouldn’t be surprised. And a man who, per Sidd’s admissions, openly admits to being a bigoted racist is clearly not shy of his views. Otherwise, we wouldn’t know he was a racist.

We keep trying to frame racism, as something that’s the duty of the person being racially demeaned, as having the responsibility to solve. It’s not my problem that someone falsely believes they are better than me based on the color of my skin or my country of origin. It’s not my responsibility to talk to a person who finds my act of existence, unnatural or disconcerting.

I wouldn’t try to find common ground with Nazis, I wouldn’t try to find common ground with Fascists, I wouldn’t try to find common ground with Rapists and I wouldn’t try to find common ground with Racists. They can figure out their own insecurities and come tell me why they are wrong.

20
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:55:42 AM »
One is a bigoted racist (yes, i call him that to his face, and he agrees)

The bigoted racist is an artist with big blade earth mover. All volunteer. No one got paid. We put the project together, had state DNR sign off, donated equipment, time, manpower, materiel and we are getting it done.

That aint gonna stop me working with them. Ya, these guys might not agree with me on a bunch of things (they have terrible taste in beer, for example) but i work with em where we agree.

Especially when that same guy is the one that comes by and stays with us all night soaked to the skin in a storm in freezing weather to keep a blocked culvert open so the road dont collapse.

We know where we stand, but we help each other out. Whatcha gonna do, stand there and snicker when the guy is drowning because he dont share your ideas ? Thats a pretty cold way to live.

sidd

I'm assuming said individual doesn't "help out" people of color. And I'm assuming that while you may tell him racism is bad, it doesn't really affect you ...

His skill with an earth mover, his taste in beer and how wet and cold he got that one time are all pointless anecdotes when we use it to define his racism, as "an idea we don't share". Normalizing racism as 'an idea' or a 'viewpoint' lends credence to the narrative, that it is a valid opinion to have. And that is just insulting at its core in every imaginable way.

If someone cant show humans basic decency because of the color of their skin, one cannot be expected to value their contributions to society, no matter how altruistic they may seem

21
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:11:22 AM »
@Oren as outrageous bbr claim can be, you should have responded in a post apart. Otherwise you're taking moderator privilege to highlight your own response, while not really moderating. I say this from the greatest respect to your labor.

Bbr has been repeating the same baseless story for the 4-5 yrs I’ve been lurking and posting here. There has never been any follow up or assessment in hindsight as Oren noted. I kinda view it as misinformation (not as egregious as a denialist) that deserves to be noted as such.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 06:39:33 AM »
So to put it in layman's terms, over the next 5 days -
We are gonna have really strong persistent winds exporting a ton of ice out the Fram Strait to their untimely demise, while a massive high pressure dome over the entire arctic basin is going to provide 24 hr sunlight and heat during the time of max insolation, over the quickly moving and thinning ice?

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 16, 2020, 10:56:48 PM »

So if you read my post carefully you can't just assume (jump to conclusion) that I'm talking about 65N and up because in fact i mentioned that I'm not.


Further the replies are not really surprising, in fact it's quite common to pick on a value or a word to discredit the entire post and it's meaning.


Its really weird to attack the people asking for proof for what would seem to be an outlandish claim. You claimed 45C is not uncommon in Siberia. Per the link in your own 2nd post, Oymyakon has a record high temperature of 34.6C

Even if the highest recorded temperature in Siberia was 40C, claiming it is not uncommon, means that it is common. A record, by definition, is not a common event.

Present data, back it up with references. Attacking the people asking for clarification while rambling on about car temps and the size of mosquitoes in your wife's city is completely pointless.


24
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 03:57:00 AM »
Looks like we are about to lose another 10+ billion tons of water today too ...

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 25, 2019, 12:33:51 PM »
8)
In the meantime, this graph is up-to-date

If Wipneus has the JAXA number... ?
Wipneus processed a Jaxa-like number, the line is in the plot as well, but it is not exactly Jaxa extent. But you can see the tendency (daily, not 2-day average). Seems Jaxa is not going down much today as will include a flat day in the average

Given that the AMSR2 3.125 drop for today seems to be accelerating, it would be highly unlikely for JAXA to have a near flat day.

The flat value is most likely due to some issue with data not coming in (hence no Jaxa update yet either).

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 11:21:56 PM »
Looking at the AMSR2 data coming in for today on NASA Worldview, sea ice in Chukchi and Laptev got absolutely decimated today. Kara and what's remaining of Hudson taking some good losses too.

Eye test tells me we are looking at a high 100k (maybe 200k) drop in extent today.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 11:03:28 PM »
One more record to be registred.

The earliest date below 8M km2

The shortest ever "slot" from 9M down to 8M km2.

Old record was 7 days in 2005 !

That is a amazing chart! Thanks for the new resource to add to my collection.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: July 10, 2019, 06:53:44 AM »
I just cannot see this year not being a record anymore.

JAXA - 2.25 - 2.75 (High)
NSIDC - 2.75 - 3.25 (High)

if 2019 will reach a >300km2 gap in early august it's quite probable because then the GAC has been pre-compensated. if they reach the second week of august head-on, chance are high that 2012 will make the race one last time ;)

We are already 157k lower than 2012. I dont know if a 300k head start is enough since 2012 lost over a million km2 at the start of August. But, I am also expecting 2019 to be potentially over 500k lower than 2012 in early August.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: July 09, 2019, 01:26:57 PM »
I just cannot see this year not being a record anymore.

JAXA - 2.25 - 2.75 (High)
NSIDC - 2.75 - 3.25 (High)

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 04, 2019, 11:57:50 AM »
That is not a real chart of july 3rd. It would mean a BOE within two weeks.
It's not the real thickness. It merely shows how easily the ice will melt (which may still be thick). And it seems right now pretty much every place is vulnerable.

Uni Bremen gets tripped up by surface melt in the summer time. Been discussed elsewhere but Bremen has very little value, if any, in the summertime

31
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 04, 2019, 07:33:41 AM »
On an earth system time scale, we are ringing a bell with a sledge hammer, and we are only hearing the very first vibrations.

That is a very poetic and jarring analogy!

And yea, dropping emissions is not going to happen unless something forces it to do so. By that time, its already far too late.

Also, given that this melting season has made a pre-2030 BOE seem more likely, I would be more inclined to expect 450 ppm sometime in the upcoming decade. Ill try and put up a more detailed justification at a later date.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 03:17:18 AM »
I presented the images that back up my claims, so I have provided the same level of evidence I ask of anyone who wants to dispute my claim.  Your accusation of double standards is false and offensive.

You presented 2 low res images of the entire Arctic area and subjectively placed an oval highlight on the 2012 image as proof of "more dispersion".

Your insistence on that being enough proof to back up your claim, is significantly more offensive, no?

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 02:38:15 AM »
its a question of whether people trust my (and those who agree with me) subjective eyeball estimates, and whether anyone who disagrees can put together some convincing images to show otherwise. 

Translation - I'm not gonna present hard numbers or data to prove my point, but if someone disagrees with me, the burden of proof is on them to refute it with data.

Spoiler alert - Burden of proof is always on the person making outlandish claims. If you are so convinced about a particular point (i.e. - dispersion), presenting convincing data to prove it should not be difficult.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:07:23 PM »
Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 WILL not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent.

Well, that settles that guys! Lets shut the thread down and reconvene for the next freezing season.

weatherdude88 has apparently developed the ability to make 'definitive' September predictions in early July, using only historical extent data!

All the subjective interpretation of data will not translate to reality, no matter how many members reiterate it.

I appreciate your objective, emotion-less assessment of the arctic ... /s

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 12:28:52 AM »

there won't be ice in hudson by then.

what would that take away from the 2nd place prediction ?

The Slater prediction has its value, but the Slater map, in my view, is pretty strange.  I would not base any specific interpretations upon it.

I covered this in Reply 1487 in significantly more detail but the Slater map is a map of the current conditions and does not depict the extent predicted.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 10:31:49 AM »
There is continuous and incredible Fram export on all 10 days of the GFS forecast ... absolutely insane to picture the amount of ice that's gonna flow out of the Arctic, if that happens.

Curious to see how it looks on the Fram export graph that accompanies Wipneus' bi-monthly Piomas updates.

37
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: June 11, 2019, 07:26:57 AM »
Glad this thread was started! I've long felt that the effects of permafrost collapse and and the rate at which it can happen have been grossly underestimated. This just came across my news feed today -

Arctic death spiral speeds up sixfold, driving coastal permafrost collapse
https://thinkprogress.org/arctic-death-spiral-coastal-permafrost-collapse-23d650acea99/

Quote
They found that during a 40-day period in the summer of 2017, the coast had retreated a remarkable 47 feet — with daily rates of collapse sometimes exceeding 3 feet.

Think about how insane that rate of loss is!

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 10:16:32 AM »
Laptev, ESS and Greenland coasts are getting (and will continue to get) absolutely blow-torched



And these massive thermal anomalies seem to be persisting through next 10 days.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 08:19:52 AM »
Slater's latest shows a XXX-rated "Pole Hole" coming to a planet near you by July 24th.



For some reason the image isn't updating properly ^, if it isn't showing 7/24, click here for the exclusive XXX-rated content.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

It seems strange to me that this image is showing a high percentage chance that the little ice arm extending on the siberian coast towards Chukchi will still be there a month and a half from now. It seems in awful shape already when inspecting on worldview. The little piece attaching to the alaskan coast is likely to still be there too, according to the image. I find that very hard to believe.

Slater's map does NOT show the expected sea ice situation on the stated date - it shows some version of the current (today's) sea ice situation. The only data point on there corresponding to 50 days out is the prediction of 7.1M sq. km.

For reference, attached is the NSIDC concentration map for June 3rd, 2019, that matches up almost perfectly with Slater's map.


Also attached is a map from JAXA for July 21, 2012, where the sea ice extent was 7.1M sq km (exactly matching Slater's prediction for July 24, 2019). Just with a quick glance, you can see that to have 7.1M, the Hudson, Baffin and Russian coasts would have to be ice free


I somehow still haven't figured out how to embed pictures into the body of messages but I hope that helps!

*Edit - WOOT! Figured out how to embed the pics!

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 02, 2019, 10:17:14 AM »

I totally appreciate the bookeeping. It's excellent.

I don't see any analysis here, I see a daily conclusion that there is no reason to believe that sea ice levels will decline by above average amounts in the near term. The analysis behind that conclusion is opaque.

The reference to users who are predicting higher losses to come as predicting Armageddon comes across as passive aggressive.

There are some new users who might come here and look at the data and think everything is fine, especially when the person delivering the data is reinforcing that message.

I'm with Greta Thunberg. People should have appropriate fear of where we are heading. What happens from day to day is a mystery, but the decadal trend is horrible.

We can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can be grateful for the data and be critical of the accompanying editorial.

All that's well and good but there are different, specific threads to discuss them. This is a thread about past and present data and maybe gleaming patterns from it to understand what range of scenarios we may face.

Let's bottle the fake outrage - everyone here understands whats at stake. We don't need people to scare the newbies or give them undue hope. We need a place to objectively observe data and that is what this is.

And the obligatory but fully deserved, thanks Geron!

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 20, 2019, 12:32:11 AM »
OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.
Yeah, and the same happens with sea ice, and with the frost in my freezer if I unplug it.
Dumbest thing I read, your entire comment.

 Should we then close the thread and talk about football? Come on, ice is gonna melt, more or less who knows, who cares, hey its freaking normal in summer!!

How snow melts out in May and June, on continents and on ice, is relevant to what’s gonna happen to ice, be it causality or correlation, and I pay good attention to it.

Calma there buddy! I think you are reading Gerontocrat's comment with some weird lenses on.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 24, 2019, 12:58:24 AM »
Blocking highs are not something new, but their intensity and persistence in increasing. The record Greenland melt years of 2010 and 2012 were associated with strong high pressure over Greenland. Those were also bad years for the Arctic sea ice.

The coming together over the Arctic ocean of the Alaskan block and the Greenland block is particularly bad for sea ice because it creates a dipole that imports heat from the Pacific and exports ice through the Fram Strait.

Took a few hours of staring at maps before I fully grasped what you were stating. If I understand the sequence of events that are about to unfold correctly, -
  • Over the next 2-3 days, the Low near south Greenland is going to continue to pull/disperse sea ice from the Baffin and S Greenland seas. Its already been underway for ~24 hrs and the wind speed maps beautifully show this conveyor system. Meanwhile, the leads opened up over ESS/Laptev stay open as that Low lingers, winds pushing ice away from the coast.
  • Then, a massive amount of heat starts moving in late Wednesday over Greenland from its east coast, causing widespread melt and likely dipping regional sea ice over the Greenland sea to a record low for the year. This sticks around for the foreseeable future.
  • And the main event starts early on Saturday, with the system of Lows over Russia/Chukchi and the system of Highs over Alaska/Beaufort, effectively funneling all that pacific heat, moisture and salinity through the Bering strait. Like a baseball pitching machine, a clockwise and counter-clockwise rotation on either side, forcing the ball (heat) through at great speed. Okhotsk and Bering sea ice drop to near-zero before end of this month
  • Finally, this is further out but the High strengthens and expands across Alaska, N. Canada, Greenland and pretty much the entirety of Arctic over early May, pushing all that heat towards the open leads in the ESS and Laptev. The associated winds continue to push all that sea ice into the open water between Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, to the Barents, where the encroaching Atlantic gets a snack.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 23, 2019, 11:41:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Will 2019 stay as the lowest on record for the whole April?
Or will 2016 become the lowest on record on the following days?

If the GFS/Euro forecasts hold for the next 8 days, that extreme heat event is going to kill almost all Okhotsk and Bering sea ice. That's 400,000 km2 by itself, which would have us atleast 100k lower than 2016.

I say 2019 holds easy to the end of April. Worse case, we add to the lead over 2016.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 22, 2019, 06:51:39 AM »
Yikes!
... it is 8 days out, but the map shows a major low pressure system impacting the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort with +0C warmth and significant wind, waves, and likely rain as well.

'Yikes' obviously garners more sensationalist attention (whatever the purpose of that is), than a reasoned explanation of a complicated image (which bbr is also capable of providing).

45
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 09:20:12 PM »
Well, I've thought it over and maybe people would dismiss a hippy type talking on AGW. Not me, it would make me more likely to believe that he really means it and that he doesn't have an axe to grind.
I respect Ted Kaczynski for how he lived (not for, you know, the bombing shit), he showed he meant it.

3 random, nonsensical statements so you can get some big, shock debate going about Ted Kaczynski ...


46
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 03:55:42 AM »
People who believe taxes should be raised for the common good should add a high voluntary contribution to their annual tax return - or they are hypocrites and their voices cannot be heard. Right?

(Wrong - they campaign for a shared pain, and are willing to take the pain when it is adopted, though not before. They are not martyrs, but neither are they hypocrites)

People who campaign for a global ban or sharp reduction of flights should not fly themselves. Right?

(Wrong - they campaign for a shared pain, and are willing to take the pain when it is adopted, though not before. They are not martyrs, but neither are they hypocrites)

Again, whataboutism ... people who campaign against flying shouldn’t fly, WHAT ABOUT people who campaign for higher taxes. It’s unrelated and serves only to make a weak association with an easier topic to argue.

And my whole point about hypocrisy was purely with regards to religion and pro-life activism.

But since we brought it up, people campaigning for a global ban on flying aren’t generally the people who fly the most. They aren’t sharing pain since the ban or reduction in flying affects them disproportionately less, if at all.

That’s not to saying flight is not bad for the environment but it’s a pointless topic to debate since we are asking to economically disadvantage the world that runs on an economic system. The one’s who orchestrate and run our broken economic systems will not be taking steps to hurt themselves or their own. So fly all you want to spread the message of climate change because it is absolutely urgent that we do so - and calling someone like Al Gore a hypocrite for doing so, is just a deflectionary tactic to distract from the real issues.

47
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 02:35:20 AM »
Even if you are an Atheist, you have to admit the embryo is human. What else would it be...an aardvark? And if you can kill a human because it is less than 9 months old, can you kill him/her because he/she is less than 6 years old? After all, such children do not think as sophisticatedly as us adults. Or should we use an IQ test where you have to score 100 or more? If that is too high, why not just 90? Or go up to 110 and just have smarter people. Where do you draw the line?

Whataboutism is the lowest form of debate. Please do not aim to disguise pointless statements as valid arguments.

An embryo is not a human. An egg is not a chicken.

I also am a lifelong vegetarian. You don’t see me forcing my opinions on why eating steak is murder, though it quite literally is. Why is life you can eat not as valuable as other life? Killing a puppy is bad but killing a baby cow for veal is an industry.

This whole topic reeks of brain-washed hypocrisy.

48
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 02:07:13 AM »

Actually, as a Catholic, I believe no one should masturbate, which is why I replied to your post that way. But that is not something for law, because an innocent life is not at stake until conception. It is also a Mortal Sin to miss Mass on Holy Days and Days of Obligation, but I am not going to pass a law on that either. But when a helpless infant in the womb is involved, then the law should protect that infant.

If we are terming embryos ‘infants’ and claiming that climate change activists shouldn’t fly, the world is already doomed. Each one of those ‘infants’ contributes way more to AGW than the one flight to a foreign land to prove our devotion to a made up concept that makes us feel good about death. Religions aims to placate and control the masses by telling them that if we do our best in this life, we get something better when we die. And then the people in power subvert that already subversive message to consolidate even more power by making you contribute funds to made up campaigns while sexually abusing the same helpless infants that they seem to want more of.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: April 12, 2019, 12:37:38 PM »
Some feedback - not sure if you are aware but images don’t seem to load on mobile. When I hold down on the empty space and ask to open image though, it does show up on the next tab.

I still have to upload daily updated images to google drive and insert a shared link into the website. (I don't know yet how put them on the github server)

Oren had the exact same problems and it had something to do with his googleaccount. Can you try opening the webpage in incognito mode?

Hmm yea, that’s odd but it worked perfectly fine in incognito mode!

50
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: April 12, 2019, 12:28:20 PM »
btw iirc, that single ≥ 3.5 ppm vote was by me. I might end up wrong on that obviously but we'll see huh?  :)

Sorry bud, that one >3.5 ppm vote was by my pessimistic ass!

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