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Messages - Rodius

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 29, 2020, 11:46:38 PM »
Government model suggests U.S. COVID-19 cases could be approaching 100 Million

The mass murder to reach a temporary relief from herd immunity would be a breath of fresh air until the immunity wears off or a mutated form begins the process again.

I don't understand why people think herd immunity means this ends.... it doesn't stop the virus, it just changes and it begins again.

I also am not understanding why people think Covid will cease to be a problem within five years, even with a vaccine. The mutation rate via other species is, to me anyway, frighteningly fast.
We found the mink variety already, unless that is just really terrible luck, this virus is not going to leave us to the old normal ever again.

We will end up with Covid only hospitals eventually and the training of nurses and doctors will still take years to catch up with the patient numbers.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 29, 2020, 05:07:04 AM »
A good article about the challenges the Victorian Govt, Australia, had during the second wave in Melbourne.

In essence, the right wing Murdoch media attacked him throughout the event, lied, made false claims and wanted the economy opened up the entire time.

Worth a read.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 27, 2020, 11:35:53 PM »

Drugs Hyped as Coronavirus Treatment Linked to Psychiatric Disorders, Says EU Agency

Chloroquine and a related compound, hydroxychloroquine, have been associated with cases of psychiatric disturbances and suicidal behavior after being given to COVID-19 patients, warned the EU’s drug regulator today.

My first wife and I went to Africa for three months and she used Chloroquine for her antimalarial drug.
I used Doxi.

Before we left we both trialed Choroquine because the doctor said it is best to find out about side effects before leaving.
I took it and I became extremely angry and almost bashed a co-worker. I am not an angry person, never have been barring that two week period, but on that drug, I had some seriously awful anger problems which taught me a lot about how people can have anger problems and how they can lose control. I stopped taking the drug, the anger left me forever... which I great.

My wife had no side effects..... until we got to Africa.
In the first month, she went from weird dreams to full on hallucinations and extremely erratic behavior. She was full on crazy, and I could tell many stories about the entire experience. It took me three weeks to convince her to stop taking the drug, and when she did, the side effects never left her. This drug is, in no small part, the reason that marriage ended. She never really recovered mentally or emotionally from using that drug for 10 weeks way back in 1999.

This is not an uncommon story and I seriously wonder how the hell such a shit drug with such terrible side effects has lasted so bloody long in circulation. It shouldn't ever be used.... ever.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 27, 2020, 01:19:57 AM »
Melbourne has gone 28 days with no Covid cases.
Three months ago we were getting several hundred per day and 20 dead per day.
Two months it was dozens a day and 10s of dead per day.
Now it is nothing...... and we are just about to be able to stop wearing masks while outside but still wear them in inside public spaces.
This will be stopped soon as well, especially with summer almost being here and our temps get over 30C regularly and sometimes over 40C.... mask wearing in those conditions will overheat more people than it is worth given it is effectively gone (for now.

1 new case, 7,000 tests, contact tracing is ongoing and selected lockdowns and closures of public
spaces are ongoing.

Looks like they caught this outbreak early and reacted appropriately as it is almost over before it even got started.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 24, 2020, 02:32:56 AM »
The origin of the virus is actually quite important.  Not just politically, but also in tracking the mutations of the virus, and the outward spread, etc etc etc.

The country that released this virus is also blocking access of foreign reporters, so it's very difficult to get any information on what is actually happening in China right now.

Not true. I just read a report by a Dutch journalist about her quarantine experiences upon entry into the country:

And "released" ??

But origins are interesting. I saw a report that this virus had been in Italy since September.

Just to double down on the word released..... it is not released.

While the origin of the virus matters, it isn't for political reasons as you infer. Politics should be done to reduce the case numbers, manage the event, and bring it to a point of relative control. China has done that.... and the places that should have done it and had the resources to do it, failed because of politics.

The science is tracking the mutations backward, and it is beginning to look like it didn't start in China, but that has yet to be determined. I wonder how quiet the noise will be if it is determined that it started somewhere in Europe?

And tracking mutations moving forward matters, look at the mink situation, and don't kid yourself into thinking that was a fluke. That will happen repeatedly most likely.

So yeah, tracking it matters a lot and it is happening in a good way.
The politics of this situation is abysmal and has allowed this virus to remain with us forever.
And people will still talk blame......

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 23, 2020, 01:18:47 PM »
The Covid-19 virus had been active in Italy months before it was first officially detected, new research has found, raising further questions about the true origins, extent and actual duration of the ongoing pandemic. "This study shows an unexpected very early circulation
of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified"

The new study, conducted by scientists with Milan Institute of Cancer and the University of Siena, was published this week by the Tumori Journal. The research is based on the analysis of blood samples from 959 people, collected during lung cancer screening tests conducted between September 2019 and March 2020.

More than 11 percent of the tested – 111 people – turned out to have had coronavirus-specific antibodies. All the tested people were asymptomatic and were not showing any signs of the disease. Some 23 of the positive results date back to September 2019, suggesting that the virus was actually present in the country as early as during last summer (summer 2019) – some six months before the pandemic ‘began’ and ‘reached’ Italy.

Paper attached.(paywalled)

"Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy"
by Apolone et al.

Expected reaction from China: it's the italians started it!

Otoh, Chinese authorities have been accused for coverups regarding the start of C19, where it actually started in China. There were 'disappearings' of whistle-blowing doctors, jailing of critical journalists, etc, so the corona might have been under the radar in China for a long time until the outbreak in Wuhan in Dec.-19

The blame game is stupid.
I have never been a fan of assigning blame.... it is better, in my mind anyway, if the cause it found, the lesson learned, and a fix applied.
Who really cares where it started, it makes absolutely no difference to the problem and any country in the world can start a pandemic.

And assuming it started in China, a country with a huge percentage of the human population, the chances are it would begin there or India anyway.
And why does it even matter anyway?

Politics is really pissing me off lately.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 22, 2020, 11:59:15 PM »
The US has a hospital system on the verge of collapse, people are going hungry there, political leaders ignoring the problem and far too many people still think this is just a flu.

In Egypt, revolution was sparked by increasing bread prices that caused hunger...... the US is not special, if they refuse to deal with the virus and the consequences, don't be surprised to see the country self destruct within six months.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 21, 2020, 05:19:52 AM »
Adelaide, Australia

5500 people in isolation.
Case numbers increase a little to 26.
Mask wearing required everywhere.

No cases for weeks, no deaths for weeks.
Masks still required but about to ease that, which is great given the weather is heating up and wearing a mask in 34C temps a few days ago is not fun so our trip out was quick.... Although masks are not required while bike riding, is not not nice having to put it on to do shopping while hot from temp and from exercise.
We will be back to normalish in the coming week.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 19, 2020, 10:49:39 AM »
The way I look at it, Covid 19 risk increases exponentially with age and linearly with BMI.
Yes it does.... but it isn't the reason for the outbreaks being so bad in Europe and the USA and being under control in other countries.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 19, 2020, 03:55:16 AM »
Adelaide, Australia.

The number of people in isolation is now 3200 with 12000 tests per day being done.
23 locally acquired cases with 17 suspected.

The Govt Premier has said that the lessons from Melbourne and other regions around the world that keep the virus at bay have been learned and applied to their situation.

BBR can talk fat people being the reason for the spread, but in Australia, there are plenty of fat people yet the virus is contained through... surprise, surprise... appropriate lockdowns, mask wearing by over 95% of the population, social distancing, a truck load of testing and contact tracing.

It worked in Melbourne, and we are seeing Adelaide responding based on the lessons learned from inaction and indecision.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 05:13:38 AM »
South Australia has put their state into a 6 day lockdown while their numbers are still under 10 per day with a further 8 days minimal of eased restrictions

The short version is only one person is aloud out per day, essential services are the only businesses allowed to be open, schools are closed, and aged care etc are in isolation.

Testing is in overdrive to capture as many people as possible so the expectation is for an increase in case of numbers over the coming six days.
When the results are back, the next decision will be able to be made based on solid information.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 17, 2020, 08:13:16 AM »
Here is an update on the beginning stages of an outbreak in Adelaide, Australia, and the response from the Stae Govt.
They are moving hard and fast.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 16, 2020, 02:33:50 AM »
I know Australia is small time stuff compared to the big outbreaks in Europe and the US, but it is interesting to stay in touch with small outbreaks and how they are managed and the results from them.
EG -  Melbourne had a small 20 person outbreak that morphed into a nightmare from a few mistakes, mismanagement of Federal Aged Care facilities and just plain bad luck.

This time it is Adelaide, South Australia.

Currently this one is at 17 cases that appears to have started in a quarantine worker. She caught it, gave it to her family who then spread it around even more. It appears that Covid may have been spreading around for at least one week, so the expectation is there will be more cases to come.

The response in Adelaide is to lock down the schools and workplaces immediately to allow testing, tracing and quarentines for at least two weeks.
States have a mixed approach from closing borders from South Australia to accessing people on a case by case basis. There isn't a unified approach in the regard.... which gives me the feeling this is a chance for Covid is sneak around the country if luck is against us (it normally is here lol)

I will update this situation in a few days.

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.

Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

How is that possible? This article says the longest case recorded so far is 61 days, yet there's supposedly 40 people who have it still after 8 months?

Well, I don't know.
Either a newspaper is wrong or the people tracking the virus are wrong.
The information is sourced from the WHO and other sources.... links given at the base of the site.

I would deep dive into this more but I am short on time... of others don't double check this by tomorrow, I will do it.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 14, 2020, 05:13:24 AM »
I put this on the Covid Recession thread because people were talking about cruise lines starting again, which reminded me of the Diamond Princess.
SO I checked up on it and got a surprise from WorldoMeters.
Then I found a second source to confirm it.

Turns out there are still 40 active cases from that event.
This is surprising to me

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.

Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 07, 2020, 05:22:13 AM »
Concerning the mink outbreak in Denmark.

The only way to stop the mink strain would be to eliminate it from Demark while not letting anyone in or out during the elimination process.

I assume the new strain can travel in the same way as Covid-19, which essentially means spreading without symptoms.
Effectively speaking, unless that shut the borders and assuming the new strain hasn't already left Denmark, this new strain will do what Covid 19 has done.....

This event is the one I was most concerned about and means Covid is here to stay for good regardless of what we  do.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 05, 2020, 03:53:27 AM »
Melbourne has gone six days straight with zero cases..... still lots of testing going on.

Australia is now like New Zealand.
Now we can sort of go back to normalish while we wait for another round of Covid.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 04, 2020, 10:22:40 AM »
Good morning.

This was posted by Alexander555 in the COVID-19 thread:
(bolding by me)
"We have a tread about a drug addicted violent homejacker like George Phloyed[sic]"

This was allowed to stand . . . . . . .
But I cannot stand it being allowed to stand as someone who has posted in the George Floyd thread and stands firmly with the oppressed. I'd thought that I was not alone.

If this still stands tomorrow, I'll make a stand and will peacefully protest by not participating for a while. If I can find the motivation again.

kassy I believe that you are the moderator of the COVID-19 thread. Your level of morality and justice shines through in your moderating acts. I find it shocking that you think that the quoted sentence is okay on this forum. In this way YOU select the forummembers. The moaners and flames stay and the silent good ones leave. This has nothing to do with my appreciation of the other efforts you put in as moderator and contributor. I don't think that you're bad as a person, nothing like that is intended.

See how a couple of emotionally- and personality-challenged members are taking up so much of your time (and ours) and effort and lower the general tone, readbility and quality of the forum by doing that. When someone is on a third try, I would be much harder on them and not allow any transgressions or it is into the corner again. Why not ask Neven for help with moderating issues? He's experienced here and you could learn from him.

Without naming them as trolls specifically (but I believe they are, difficult to explain here), their behaviour is very succesfull in destabilising the site and dragging the fiends-feelings down; invoking emotions and people taking sides and more.

I'm still disgusted by Alexander's post.

+1 on that sentence being allowed to remain.
I said nothing mostly because I thought it would be removed for a number of reasons.

The blatant hate speech that is happening in the Covid thread is ridiculous.
It seems okay to throw Nazi around for reasons that don't make sense.... and it is the same people doing it after they were told to stop it.

Several people are baiting others, the rubbish not just individuals but the entire forum should their opinions be pushed back on with evidence.... and their idea of evidence comes from far right sources and Murdock media (a well-known political influencer,  climate denier and Covid hoax promoter and Non-White hater)

Normally it is okay to let things slip, it exposes the haters of the world to see them rant, but when is enough, enough?

A few members need to be banned, they are only here to argue their unbackable opinions and run down others while trying to make themselves look like some sort of genius or something and play victim along the way.

The hate talk is becoming a derailing factor in the Covid thread in particular. If those people want to talk politics, take it elsewhere.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 04, 2020, 05:31:06 AM »
Trump is going to win.

I am going into mourning.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 05:45:16 AM »
You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

Can you be specific in what you mean so replies can be given?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:22:57 AM »

Iets face the facts, George Floyed died on the 25th of May. 14 days later the 2th wave starts in the US. And where did they had a 2th wave like that in the NH in summer 

The 2nd wave in the US occurred in AZ, FL, LA, MS, etc. ...  i.e. the US South where hot humid weather forces everyone inside to air-conditioning.

The Midwest and Northeast had declining cases during the summer. The states of MN, WI, NY, IL all declined. All had large BLM rallies. All rallies had masks mandated by peer pressure, essentially.

Outdoor mass gatherings while wearing masks are riskier than staying home alone, but are much safer than indoor dining and bars. In the South, all the Trumpers, GOPers, and COVID deniers came out of their isolation and went to indoor dining and bars. They spread COVID far and wide during the summer. BLM rallies occurred in the South, but they were not large, did not last long (too hot), all participants were near 100% masked, and did not spread COVID.

Your pouty political spin on BLM as the cause of COVID spread is roundly refuted by the facts on the ground.

Melbourne had a similar thing happen.
Just before the outbreak here there were protests concerning BLM with a strong focus on Indigenous rights.
Most people wore masks and did social distancing, it was really great to see.
Anyway.... a couple of weeks later the outbreak happened and Murdoch media blamed the marches for it.
Science leaps it and proves without a doubt that nobody from the BLM marches even had Covid and the tracing of DNA didn't lead back to anyone in the protests.
It was a Murpdoch/political motive to blame non-White people for the outbreak.

Ironically, it turns out it was several White people who set the outbreak off... some knew they were sick, the others not. But not a peep about their skin color and the Murdoch media ran the articles blaming the protests for weeks after it was shown to be completely untrue.

But, the truth doesn't matter, those who wanted to blame non-White people were convinced and decided that anything against their thinking was just a conspiracy.

It is truly sad that this shit just keeps happening and that so many people believe it.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 01, 2020, 01:09:08 AM »
I am not sure why some people keep talking about herd immunity when it isn't an answer to Covid.

SO far, every country that has lost control of Covid has many, many deaths.
There is no evidence that can pinpoint the length of immunity.
There is some evidence that Covid can be caught more than once within months and the second time tends to be worse.... but since the numbers are low at this point, it is hardly enough information to make decisions on.

How does herd immunity make Covid better?
It kills many people, injures many others, and the results on the other end are uncertain... and the WHO and many other experts have been clear that aiming for herd immunity is not the way to handle this situation.... oddly, politicians and business people think herd immunity is great. That alone is enough to scream out loud that herd immunity is wrong.

As for NYC.... they are taking actions that look good, but their case numbers are still rising. Hopefully what they are doing is enough.
Should the actions taken fail though, I wonder if those who tout herd immunity will revisit their thinking about it working while using NYC as their example?

Covid looks to be a winter bug.
But that could have more to do with people being in closed spaces than actual temperatures.

There are studies being done that link dryness of air to easier spread.
This study was done in Sydney, but given Melbourne is both cool and dry during winter, it may help explain on more aspect to the outbreak we had.

There really isn't anywhere in the world that is safe from Covid all year round. And even if herd immunity is pursued, which it is by the looks of it, the results will just be more dead people and Covid will not go away and it will keep on doing what it does.

To me, we need to accept that Covid is here to stay and it could be decades before anything significant changes.... even with a vaccine.
It will come down to treating it better to reduce deaths and injury, which will give the appearance that Covid is weakening when in fact the reduced death rates are from better management and research.

This entire situation is a total mess, politicians are using it to their advantage, and far too many people are following the lead of those who gain advantage from a widespread disease.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 29, 2020, 03:38:53 AM »
Australia is not screwed, we have it under control.

There is a real risk for another outbreak. The structural factors that you blame (funding etc) have not changed.

Would that mean another lockdown?

I wish you guys down there all the best. But that little island state up here in the North Atlantic also got in trouble after it had suppressed the virus. See

The expectation is that new outbreaks will happen. It is a certainty.
The difference is next time it will be attacked harder and faster than before.

And remember that the start of the Victoria outbreak began with two super spreaders and some really bad luck.

Still, if another outbreak happens and another lockdown is required, then that is what will happen

The structural issues are still there in aged care.... but.... there has been a deep dive investigation into it and it is scathing of the Federal funding and many other disturbing things. The problem isn't not knowing what happened, it never really was, the problem is this Govt doesn't care and they set the situation up that way to begin with. They are playing the blame game, talk the good talk, and then do nothing about it.
The same has happened with the investigations into the catastrophic fires last summer... they talk, they blame, the promise, and nothing has changed at all in terms of direction, funding, support for communities.... it just doesnt arrive.

In short, the Federal politicians are screwing us over and they don't seem to care..... our State Govt has been attacked relentlessly for months over the outbreak and the response by Murdoch media while the Fed Govt gets praise in spite of the facts.

So.... yeah, there will be other outbreaks and it will be the State Govts that combat it in spite of the Federal Govt wanting an open economy. It isn't much different to the US in this respect expect out State Govts are able to do more and flip the finger to the Federal Govt while doing what needs to be done.

In short, we know this isn't the last time, so while we are getting our freedom of movement back, we will enjoy it as much as possible for as long as possible while wearing our masks and respecting the ongoing social distancing for the foreseeable future. It is a small price to pay for no to little Covid, normal hospital loads and an economy that is opening up and a restricted version of business as usual.... until next time.

I just hope it isn't Melbourne again....

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 28, 2020, 06:09:55 AM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June. Apparent control is actual obfuscation via seasonality's modification of both transmission and mortality patterns. It is now spreading more slowly but doing so substantially more invisibly. If there is not a viable vaccine, Australia too, will be screwed (and it will be everywhere when they lift the interstate travel bans if they haven't already, I haven't been following re: Victoria).

Victoria got rid of Covid via masks, testing, tracing, and strong leadership.

The numbers started to drop before the weather started to warm up, and while I agree that it appears Covid thrives in colder weather and that it will have played one part of many in getting Covid under control in Victoria, it certainly wasn't the main reason.

Australia is not screwed, we have it under control.
Other regions of Australia get as cold as Melbourne but they didn't have outbreaks that got out of control.... their outbreaks were tested and traced out of existence.

What happened here was a combination of really bad luck with a few super spreaders and several trials of control that didn't work plus huge mismanagement of the Federally run aged care facilities. And aged care mismanagement is a big reason for the spread.... and to underline this point a bit more... Federally run aged care facilities with less funding, fewer nurses to patient rations, accounted for 100% of the deaths via Covid in Victoria.
Victorian run aged care had zero deaths.
This one thing alone highlights very strongly that managing the spread of Covid makes a massive difference and letting run wild is a terrible idea.
For some numbers.... Fed funded aged care facilities 650 +/- and Victoria funded is 190 +/-
655 old people died in federal funded aged care.... zero in Victoria funded aged care.

Also, State borders in Australia open or are restricted based on the circumstances. We also have open borders with New Zealand, who also has Covid under control through strong leadership, testing, tracing and masks when required.

Your line of thinking is just wrong in terms of herd immunity..... and herd immunity is just going to kill a lot of people, damage even more, and we don't even know how long natural immunity lasts so.... if it is only 3 months, it is just letting the virus do what it does so well.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 26, 2020, 08:52:03 AM »
Go Australia!

Now is the time to expand testing and contact tracing efforts.

An outbreak will occur at some point, very likely travel related. The more widespread the testing, the earlier you will catch the outbreak.


If the contact tracers move fast and the contacts isolate there is no reason for C19 to take root again. Hopefully, safe vaccines are in place before next winter. Less likely but even better would be a cheap and effective antiviral.

Exactly..... and that is all in place. Unsurprisingly, Victoria now has a well oiled testing and tracing process that works under stress. Trial by fire, mistakes made and mended and the expectation is there will be outbreaks.

Most people here understand this (I still have friends who think it is a hoax or conspiracy but they are rare) so when sick, a Covid test is part of the process now.

Our State Govt is very keen to keep Covid under control, this was a hard task to do under extreme pressure from the Federal Govt and big business to open up weeks ago, so now they have the control, the plan is to keep it and never take the foot off the virus.

What concerns me is how hard it is to control. 110 days of tough restrictions, masks, testing and tracing is what it took to truly get this result. I am not sure if this is possible in many rich countries... the sense of freedom and personal entitlement has created communities and leaders who don't care as much as our State Govt.... I think I am very lucky to live here.

Now it is the NH to take on Covid..... it looks terrible to me.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 26, 2020, 06:46:49 AM »
Melbourne Update
Zero cases today, less than 5 per day (seven day average) for a week, no deaths for a week.

And on Wednesday we are effectively open again with some basic rules like masks and the number of people in shops restrictions in retail shops etc.

We will be in what we are calling Covid Normal from now on.

110 days from 700 a day to zero and open again.

We will soon be able to fly to New Zealand, travel inter state, and soon some other Covid free countries that are "local".

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 23, 2020, 05:23:07 AM »
I dont understand how anyone can say the USA has handled the pandemic well when they have so many dead people and so many cases and it is getting much worse by the say.

From the top of my head, the US has 5% of the population and 20% of the deaths. On what planet is that handling it well?

It is mind numbing having to listen to people talk about Covid as if it isn't much to worry about... it is frustrating to listen to people talk about how well the US has handled it when it has clearly screwed the entire thing up from day one.

Over and over again the same thing happens..... places that take it seriously and combat it with masks, testing and tracing have far fewer deaths than those that don't. Their economies, which seems to be the most important thing, are also doing better because the virus is taken on and vastly reduced.
The countries, like the US and Europe, who don't take all that seriously end up with many dead people, many injured people, their economies will be worse for the experience and yet... people still think those regions of the world are doing a good job.

It truly boggles my mind. What needs to happen to convince people of what is in front of their very eyes?
How many people need to die this year before those who think it isn't much, decide it is serious? 1.5 million? 2 million? Is it beyond comprehension that there will be 3 million dead by Dec 31?

I still think 2 million is a stretch, but as each days goes by, and I see the exponential growth that is happening, 2 million isn't looking like much of a stretch anymore.
But to me, I am beginning to wonder more about the people who have damaged bodies post virus and thinking that is going to be a significant challenge if Covid gets to run rampant through the US and Europe properly.

Lockdowns suck, I am in day 110 of one and it has weeks left as it is lifted slowly. It is the second time this year, but compare out 800 dead people to the multiple thousands the UK have (110 days ago Victoria had the same number as the UK), I pick what we have done over the UK every single time.

In a few weeks we will be mostly free to move around again, the economy will begin to recover somewhat and life keeps going. In Europe and the USA, I wonder what the situation will be like in 110 days doing what they are doing at the moment......

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 20, 2020, 11:11:51 PM »
What we need to determine at this point is the extent of re-infection.  If 55%+ of all infected become disabled afterwards, what are the implications for the future of our dystopian mask wearing society?

The study involved 88 patients and controls. The 55% can clearly not be extrapolated to the general population so the claim that ´55%+ of all infected become disabled afterward´ does not hold true.

While I agree 55% is not the extrapolation I would use, I have been pondering the issue of the effects of Covid in terms of damage done post-illness.

There will be more people who need to be cared for in the long term. Given the virus is likely to do the rounds, eventually the number of people needing care will increase while decreasing the people who can do it. This puts a strain on everything if the numbers become high enough.

I dont think this will be a serious issue, but I am beginning to see potential that after care could become something that needs significant resources in the years to come.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 20, 2020, 11:04:09 PM »
SO much irony....

The Epitome Of Stupidity: Oil Companies Chill The Ground In Alaska So They Can Keep Drilling

The Guardian reports that ConocoPhillips and other oil companies sucking oil out of the North Slope in Alaska are facing a new challenge. The area is warming so fast that the permafrost is melting, making it impossible to drive trucks across it and potentially destabilizing oil rigs and other infrastructure.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 20, 2020, 02:13:23 PM »
World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.
I'll say. They just go up exponentially. There isn't even a slowing during the summer that I can see.

I said that last month..... I stand by it now.

We will reach 1.5 million dead this year.
And if the exponential keeps happening, we will reach 2 million (even though it looks like it cant happen, that is the nature of exponential growth)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 19, 2020, 05:09:12 AM »
On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months.

3000 km with a 7 yr old on bicycle? How long is it going to take?! Half a year??? Shouldn't they be in school?

That is school for an Australian! Australians are expected to be able to cope stuck abroad in a plague pit for the two years it takes to get a booking in the quarantine hotel. Basic training for this starts young ;)

I homeschool the kids. They are both autistic and don't deal with school at all but thrive at home.

My 12 year old is a strong rider and I am towing my 7 year old with some help from an electric motor for head wind days and moderate climbs (I will walk the steep hills, not that Oz has many). The set up I have allows me to detach the 7 year olds bike so he can ride solo every day until he gets tired, then I attach him back to my bike for the rest. He is a strong rider for his age. He comfortable does 15km to 20km every second day already.

The route is not direct, we will be weaving a little bit. I did a relatively detailed plan, it turns out it will be about 2700km.... 30km to 50km per day, slow start. I predict it will take about 90 days, give or take a week.

I nest not derail this thread, I didn't expect the response.... opps.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 18, 2020, 05:19:52 AM »
While the NH goes to the Covid Crapper..... Here in Melbourne we have managed to drag the cases per day to under 6 per day.
Restrictions are finally being eased..... things like 5km travel restrictions are now 25km.
Meeting people outdoors goes from  6 to 20 people.
Masks are still mandatory.
Some retail shops are allowed to open up again with restrictions on how many customers are allowed into the shop.

Sydney is having a very small spike but they are testing and contact tracing the crap out of it, so I don't expect that to progress far.

The weather is warming up nicely, which is becoming an obvious advantage in the containment of Covid.

Australia is setting up a system that allows people to travel inter-state again. Borders have been closed for a while to prevent the spread.
The most likely concept they have come up with, and is likely to be used, is to give each State a color code with rules for crossing borders.
Green - almost no Covid. Only require a temp check when crossing
Blue - some Covid at slightly concerning levels. Temp check and testing on the spot.
Red - Covid problem. 5 day isolation then test on day five.

New Zealand and Australia have begun air travel again, but not to Victoria/Melbourne for obvious reasons.
Sadly, 17 New Zealanders thought they would get off the international flight at Sydney then onto a flight from Sydney to Melbourne, which is not allowed under the terms that were set up. They were all caught and stopped at the airport and deport back to New Zealand.

If New Zealands insist of this type of thing, NZ will have Covid romping through their country in no time.

On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months. With the situation under control and a Govt that wants it to stay that way, this adventure will go ahead.

Europe and the US looks like a freaking mess, it is still blowing my mind that countries with wealth and resources are messing this situation so badly. I simply don't understand why.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 15, 2020, 02:38:21 AM »
Quite a different take on "The Great Barrington Declaration". Anything touched by the Koch brothers is diseased.

I cant believe what is happening in relation to letting Covid run wild.
It looks like an act of war from the Govt on its own population.
It looks like Trump is using the virus to reduce voting by people who want to avoid Covid (not his voters) while allowing his fans (who think Covid is a hoax) will vote.

This looks like Trump has effectively wrapped up his next term as President.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 14, 2020, 03:07:33 AM »
For some reason primary waves typically take about 7-8 weeks to wind down no matter what interventions are done, although there could be secondary waves after the primary one, historically pandemics going into wintertime have had major waves both entering the winter months, and exiting.

<Edited out redundant parts of the quote. kassy>

Can you support that with any evidence at all?
I mean, it sounds like you are saying that Covid will just magically disappear after 7 or 8 weeks.... shit, that reminds me of someone else...... and yet, it hasn't magically disappeared and it has escalated. Dont be too concerned with the facts, it will mess with your world view.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 13, 2020, 03:39:19 AM »
Melbourne Update.

The case numbers are stuubornly hanging around 18 per day on a 5 day average. Mystery cases sit at 12 and the Premier of Victoria is under huge stress to open the economy up.

The concept he is running with is if we open up too fast, the mystery cases will leap upwards and we are back to problem numbers within weeks.

On 19 Oct the idea is we will have restrictions eased, but that doesn't mean a lot in real terms but it is better than nothing.
Challenges include the public becoming more willing to break the rules.... beaches filling up with people without masks, parks with children mingling together and parties with crowded conditions occurring.

I am not sure we are out of this situation yet.

Also, Sydney is having its out mini outbreak with multiple mystery cases as well. 6 locally acquired cases in 24 hours. They are attacking that problem hard though.

Covid is surprisingly difficult to get rid of.

Oh, and someone in Geelong (near Melbourne, loving place) who had Covid has caught it again.... that cant be good news.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 10, 2020, 04:15:01 AM »
An artcile posted by Vox asks "Why are Infections Rising Again in US?"

Well, obviously the amount of testing needs to be reduced even more, that will fix it.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: October 05, 2020, 03:00:16 PM »
Was the pun intended?

No, damn it.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: October 05, 2020, 07:58:29 AM »
Another assault on the Mississippi Delta region for late this week is possibly brewing......

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 02, 2020, 06:02:11 AM »
Not even the people who work in fossil fuel extraction want to do it.

Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO
« on: October 02, 2020, 05:45:53 AM »
According to Australia, we are officically in a La Nina.

For an overview

For the details

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 30, 2020, 05:30:32 AM »
World dead just passed 1 million - 9 more voters in the poll tear up their betting slips.

Next benchmark = 10 million. If death rates kept on as they are sometime in the mid-late 2020's.
But of course the people who presume to govern us would never let that happen, would they?

You are forgetting exponential growth.
If death rates keep doing that, we will reach 10 million before the end of 2021.

The first 500K took 154.
The second 500K took 92 days.
And the second 500K happened while the NH was in summer....... I wouldn't be surprised if we get to 2 million before the end of this year.

Except that exponential growth has ceased.  While the second 500K took 92 days, averaging 5366 deaths daily, your 154 day figure includes the early days of the virus when few were dying.  The death toll was still highest during the month of April at 6375 daily deaths.  Daily deaths were falling until the virus started spreading in India and Brazil.  Deaths in Brazil peaked in the NH summer (SH winter), and have been falling since.  Deaths in India appear to have just passed peak.  Hence, the second (lower) death rate peak appeared in early August.

I would be surprise if deaths pass 1.5 million by years end.  I suspect that we will never reach 10 million during the entirety of this pandemic.

I am not so sure it has stopped yet, and given the potential the virus has over the NH winter, it is unlikely to slow down.

While I am crude in my maths, the reason I think exponential growth is ongoing is based on the growth rate over a two week period.
Here is the fortnight case numbers at the end of each month as per world o meter.
End of
Mar - 660,000
Apr - 1,119,000
May - 1,459,000
June - 2,296,000
July - 3, 565,000
Aug - 3, 591,000
28 Sep - 4,108,000

That isn't slowing down or even in a plateau. At best you have a sideways movement in Aug.
In effect, that is an upward trend that is speeding up and that is without winter in play.

Deaths numbers for the last two weeks of each month are
Mar - 34,000
Apr - 88,000
May - 57,000
Jun - 67,000
Jul - 83,000
Aug - 77,000
Sep - 73,000

This is a better story. This is probably due to better treatments and knowing how to combat the virus after a person becomes sick. We are learning.
BUT..... how long will deaths stay at that number when the case numbers keep going up faster almost every month?

There will come a point where our treatments wont reduce the death rate much more or anymore as we reach peak treatment. When that happens, death rates will increase alongside case numbers.

It is a matter of when we reach that point. By the looks of it, we still have a fair way to go before treatments cease to do much more.

*Add On*
There are 93 days to the end of this year.
If deaths remain the same as the last 93 days there will be just over 500,000 more deaths.
1.5 million is basically in the bag at this point by the looks of it.

A single multi billionaire could easily subsidize all of their salaries indefinitely at their current rates.

The vacant hotels could also be used to shelter the homeless during the winter.

The homeless in hotels wont work.

What would work is giving all homeless people or people in need enough money to pay rent and meet their needs via a welfare system.
Short term fixes do  nothing to fix anything.

The solution is give people money.... maybe a Universial Basic Income.... and homelessness would disappear rather rapidly as would many other problems.

But that isn't going to happen... and hotels for the homeless wont work either for anyone.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 29, 2020, 08:38:03 AM »
I consider the vaccine a wild card.
It might happen, it might not.
Even when they approve one, the effectiveness of the first versions will be crude compared to later ones.
There is uncertainty around how long the vaccine will last.
There is mutation rates to consider over a ten year time frame.... so even with a vaccine, chances are we will need to update it within ten years (although if they make a vaccine, chances are the new version will happen faster than the first one)

When I did the spreadsheet, I accommodated age ranges. So while the age ranges in various countries varies, I ignored that and went with global figures only. So my crude estimate allowed for that aspect.

And this is all based on information during the first month or two.

I really should repeat the project. But so many variables...... it hurts my head.

IF two million end up dead this year (I give that a 60% chance of happening), then I expect the total to be ten million by the end of 2021 UNLESS a vaccine appears or preventive medicines that reduce death rates more appear (both possible)

Given the US is trying hard for 1 million by itself in the coming 12 months I am erring on the higher side of the numbers at this point in time.

Winter is coming.....

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 29, 2020, 05:54:53 AM »
I voted 100 million to 1 billion.
I would have voted 100 to 200 million if that option was there.

My thinking at the time was based on the initial research out of China.
My wife came home from work and asked me if I had heard about the virus in China... I hadn't (which made her happy to know something before me lol).... so I had a look.
What I did was look at the ability of the virus to spread, did the person need have symptoms to spread it, and potential death rate.

I set up a spread sheet, assumed the US would screw it up (Trump is evil, evil people do evil things) and that half the world wouldn't be able to stop it once it was there or have the resources to combat it.

I made multiple assumptions, some right, some wrong, and got about 150 million or so deaths in ten years.
Pure guess work... I figured I would be wrong but went with that number anyway because I enjoyed the math put into it.

100 million people represents 1.4% of the global population (+/-)

One of my assumptions was people would catch it more than once, and with an aging population, that also means that people at lower risks would move into the higher risk regions.

While the death rate per infection in likely between 0.5% and 1.0%, my assumption was that was per infection. Since we will probably catch it mroe than once, this means the virus will kill more people than the death to infection rate suggests.

That was my line of thinking for my guess.

Now, I think we will end up with 50 to 100 million.
I will probably be wrong, I usually am.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 29, 2020, 05:37:22 AM »
World dead just passed 1 million - 9 more voters in the poll tear up their betting slips.

Next benchmark = 10 million. If death rates kept on as they are sometime in the mid-late 2020's.
But of course the people who presume to govern us would never let that happen, would they?

You are forgetting exponential growth.
If death rates keep doing that, we will reach 10 million before the end of 2021.

The first 500K took 154.
The second 500K took 92 days.
And the second 500K happened while the NH was in summer....... I wouldn't be surprised if we get to 2 million before the end of this year.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 28, 2020, 10:52:34 AM »
Melbourne is the only place in Australia that had a second wave.
Probably not an entire coincidence given we are one of the colder places in the country and anything hot has had no real issues... which is a combination of weather and good management.

Since Spring is here (warming up fast now) the virus will struggle and, hopefully disappear.
Testing is still high but not random. People are fronting up for testing most of the time.

I am not worried about the situation anymore, it is sorted barring the end clean up over the next few weeks. Summer is coming, bike rides and bike tours are prepared, all we need now is no bad fires like last year and it looks like we are having an average season this year.

My attention is on the NH now, what happens in that half of the world is what matters in terms of large scale problems.... to be honest, I am quite concerned about the coming four to six months.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 28, 2020, 05:09:27 AM »
Melbourne Update.

We have been told there is at least three more weeks of lock down and it wont be removed until there are less than 5 cases per day over a two week period.
The attack on Covid has been led by the State Premier, which is great because our Prime Mininster, Scott Morrision, wants Melbourne opened up asap... given the levels at the moment are still higher than when this whole mess started, opening up asap would see a repeat event although maybe less worse given summer is slowly arriving.

This article goes into the path forward and the current situation

Now that Covid is tamed, the politics is heating up. Opposition are claiming breaches of human rights, the private security company that was meant to stop Covid entering Australia has been found responsible for the outbreak.

As an aside, given the rest of Australia is in control, talks are moving ahead for travel bubbles between Non Victorian States and New Zealand. Victoria will be added to the list in a few months, most likely.

What this highlights to me is just how contagious this virus is. One source well hidden for just long enough shut down Melbourne for months, cost 766 lives and counting since July, is causing severe strain on mental health services, the economy and is basically a total mess. And that is with strong restrictions and leadership.

Melbourne is still an very good example of excellent testing and tracking.

When the US and Euro and UK reach winter and all hell has broken out, I wonder if anyone will compare the results in those regions with what happened with good management of the outbreak in Melbourne?

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