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Messages - kassy

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 10:06:18 PM »
Dutch numbers

1039 +175
4712 +722 in hospital (all historical cases)

1123 +80 in IC

995 positives others on clinical signs (not updated from yesterday just keeping it around in case they mention it again).

12595 +845 confirmed

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: Today at 09:53:58 PM »
Research station in East Antarctica reports its first heatwave

Researchers at the Australian Antarctic Program reported the first recorded heatwave event at the Casey research station in East Antarctica. The event, which took place during the 2019-2020 summer, is likely to have impacted biological systems across the continent and accelerated ice melt.

Heatwaves happen when three consecutive days with both extreme and minimum temperatures are reported. Between January 23rd and 26th, the research station recorded minimum temperatures above zero and maximum above 7.5º (45.5 ºF), with the highest m9.2º C (48.5 ºF), being recorded on the 24th. The highest minimum, 2.5º C (36.5 ºF) was recorded the following morning.

The maximum is 6.9º C (44.4 ºF) higher than average for the station, while the minimum is 0.2º C (32.3 ºF) above average.

more on:

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 09:32:04 PM »
Stop denying this virus is "just the flu" - the 1918 Spanish Flu was CONSIDERABLY less dangerous to society, than the Wuhan Coronavirus.

Those are actually two very different things.

The 1918 H1N1 pandemic killed healthy adults quickly. So That one was actually scary.
This disease does not do that.

Also mortality estimates for 1918 are in the 20 to 100 million deaths.

The later 2 flu A pandemics about 1 million deaths worldwide and 100k in the US.

Today we have these different production chains which are actually more vulnereable.
We also have governments that ignore many problem like AGW or the about 100% chance for another zoonotic pandemic. 
And we have this super connected world.

I am not much of a tourist so i was quite amazed to see how many tourists were still around (or got on recent tour trips). Then everybody is talking by phone to eachother.

Bleep. More people dying in country X. But what are the baselines? Obviously here we all have an I-phone and a low tolerance for death. The streets already emptied a bit before the official measures and i think that was because of the numbers then coming in from Italy and Spain.

Our recent worst flu season killed 9400 in a year. Same demography mostly. People don´t know that and get panicked when people are dying all over the news.

So lack of preparedness and lack of information make us more vulnerable but the very same thing goes for AGW. Typically the governments can throw money at things but they are less competent at managing important things like getting doctors proper masks or ordering vents in time because that is too much like real work.

Luckily the phone spy guys had a monitering thingy up quickly.  ::)

Basically this is more evidence that we should strive to do better but that discussions is more for the Lessons thread.

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: Today at 08:13:06 PM »
We could even be at the end of a 2,000 year cycle from the Roman Empire

We could also be making things up...  ::)

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: Today at 09:16:04 AM »
Thomas Becket: Alpine ice sheds light on medieval murder

Ancient air pollution, trapped in ice, reveals new details about life and death in 12th Century Britain.

In a study, scientists have found traces of lead, transported on the winds from British mines that operated in the late 1100s.

Air pollution from lead in this time period was as bad as during the industrial revolution centuries later.

The pollution also sheds light on a notorious murder of the medieval era; the killing of Thomas Becket.


Becket was beheaded in a brutal attack at Canterbury cathedral on 29 December 1170.

Now scientists have found physical evidence of the impact of the dispute between Henry and Becket in a 72-metre-long ice core, retrieved from the Colle Gnifetti glacier in the Swiss-Italian Alps.

In the same way that trees detail their growth in annual rings, so glaciers compact a record of the chemical composition of the air, trapped in bubbles in the yearly build-up of ice.

Analysing the 800 year-old ice using a highly sensitive laser, the scientists were able to see a huge surge in lead in the air and dust captured in the 12th century.

Atmospheric modelling showed that the element was carried by winds from the north west, across the UK, where lead mining and smelting was booming in the late 1100s.

Lead and silver are often mined together and in this period, mines in the Peak District and in Cumbria were among the most productive in Europe.

The researchers were able to match the physical records from the ice with the written tax records of lead and silver production in England.

Lead had many uses in this time, from water pipes to church roofs to stained glass windows.

But production of the metal was clearly linked to political events according to the authors of this latest research.

"In the 1169-70 period, there was a major disagreement between Henry II and Thomas Beckett and that clash manifested itself by the church refusing to work with Henry - and you actually see a fall in that production that year," said Prof Christopher Loveluck, from Nottingham University.

Excommunicated by the Pope in the wake of the murder, Henry's attempt at reconciliation is detailed in the ice core.

"To get himself out of jail with the Pope, Henry promised to endow and build a lot of major monastic institutions very, very quickly," said Prof Loveluck.

"And of course, massive amounts of lead were used for roofing of these major monastic complexes.

"Lead production rapidly expanded as Henry tried to atone for his misdemeanours against the Church."

The researchers say their data is also clear enough to show the clear connections between lead production rising and falling during times of war and between the reigns of different kings in this period between 1170 and 1220.

"The ice core shows precisely when one king died and lead production fell and then rose again with the next monarch," said Prof Loveluck.

"We can see the deaths of King Henry II, Richard the Lionheart and King John there in the ancient ice."

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: Today at 09:12:39 AM »
Intensity of past methane release measured with new, groundbreaking methods

A novel approach to geochemical measurements helps scientists reconstruct the past intensity of the methane seeps in the Arctic Ocean. Recent studies show that methane emissions fluctuated, strongly, in response to known periods of abrupt climate change at the end of the last glacial cycle.

"Previously, when dating the natural release of methane, we used to measure mostly carbon isotopes. But now we know that carbon isotopes alone can't tell us the full story of past emissions of this greenhouse gas." says professor Giuliana Panieri, from CAGE Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate at UiT The Arctic University of Norway.


The study in Scientific Reports highlights the potential of sulfur isotopic signature (δ34S) in foraminifera, as a novel tool for reconstructing the intensity of CH4 emissions in geological records. This can also, indirectly, help date the release.

"This is the first time that sulfur isotopes are measured in foraminiferal shells from methane seeps. The samples were collected from a well-known site of present-day methane release, Vestnesa Ridge. Here, gas has been seeping into the ocean at least from the Last Glacial Maximum: some 20,000 to 5,000 years ago." says Panieri.

"How did methane in the sub-seabed respond to previous global warmings? Was it merely bubbling up, or was it released in a constant and abrupt jet, strongly emitted into the water column?"

These questions are important in the provinces of large gas hydrate accumulations, such as Vestnesa Ridge.


"The combination of carbon, oxygen, and sulfur isotopes found in foraminifera allows us to reconstruct the flux of methane released in the geological past. This represents a fundamental advancement in studies of past climate. It offers the opportunity to study the connection between methane seepage, climate, and underlying tectonic processes with a new degree of confidence." Says Chiara Borrelli, first author of the study and researcher at Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, USA.

"Our study shows that there was a strong methane fluctuation at the sampling site, responding to known periods of abrupt cooling and warming, at the end of the last glacial cycle."


 However, the traces of oxygen isotopic signature δ18O in benthic foraminifera can, as shown in a newly published study by Dessandier et al. in Geo-Marine letters.

"If we have a large amount of δ18O in the foraminiferal shells, we can say that the source of methane is the gas hydrate dissociation," says Panieri, who also co-authored this paper.

"We found a significant enrichment of δ18Oin all foraminifera samples characterized by depleted δ13C. These results mainly come from the precipitation of authigenic carbonates around the foraminiferal shells, so-called secondary overgrowth. These methane-derived carbonates are characterized by a heavy oxygen isotopic signature. This signature can only be explained by dissociation of gas hydrates because gas hydrates are naturally enriched in 18O due to their ice-like physical properties." according to Pierre-Antoine Dessandier, a postdoc at CAGE and first author of the study.


"Consider secondary overgrowth on foraminiferal shells: It is a minuscule carbonate deposit. Before CAGE it was considered to be a contaminant in the samples. But new technology opens new doors. We have discovered that the presence of the secondary overgrowth in itself is an indicator of methane release. Something that previously was considered an interference, and caused samples to be thrown out with the thrash, is, in reality, an unknown book, containing enormous amounts of information in itself." says Panieri.

The benthic foraminiferal δ34S records flux and timing of paleo methane emissions (OA)

New 3D View of Methane Tracks Sources and Movement around the Globe

NASA’s new 3-dimensional portrait of methane concentrations shows the world’s second largest contributor to greenhouse warming, the diversity of sources on the ground, and the behavior of the gas as it moves through the atmosphere. Combining multiple data sets from emissions inventories, including fossil fuel, agricultural, biomass burning and biofuels, and simulations of wetland sources into a high-resolution computer model, researchers now have an additional tool for understanding this complex gas and its role in Earth’s carbon cycle, atmospheric composition, and climate system.

Since the Industrial Revolution, methane concentrations in the atmosphere have more than doubled. After carbon dioxide, methane is the second most influential greenhouse gas, responsible for 20 to 30% of Earth’s rising temperatures to date.

“There’s an urgency in understanding where the sources are coming from so that we can be better prepared to mitigate methane emissions where there are opportunities to do so,” said research scientist Ben Poulter at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.


The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 30, 2020, 10:37:03 PM »
Yeah they were lovely with all the projections and crescendo´s.

Pandemic metal part 3. Oldie but goodie.
Queensryche - Spreading the disease

Religion and sex are powerplays
Manipulate the people for the money they pay
Selling skin, selling God
The numbers look the same on their credit cards
Politicians say no to drugs
While we can pay for wars in South America (Old song  ::) )
Fighting fire with empty words
While the banks get fat
And the poor stay poor
And the rich get rich
And the cops get paid
To look away
As the one percent rules America

Spreading the disease
Everybody needs
But no one wants to see
The way society
Keeps spreading the disease

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 30, 2020, 10:11:35 PM »
Thx, i have been wondering about that.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 04:01:43 PM »
Dutch numbers

864 +93

For context excess mortality in our worst recent flu season was 9444 over 15 weeks or 630 per week same demographic mostly:

3990 in hospital (all historical cases)
1053 in IC 995 positives others on clinical signs.

11750 +884 confirmed

Less new cases/hospital admissions in NB. Most in N and S Holland and in Limburg/Gelderland.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 03:32:05 PM »
Very on point.

I don´t think anyone suggests a ´Covid-19 disaster regime´ for AGW.

It´s more like learning from the mistakes.

This is a relatively simple problem.

After it was clear the was a new SARS variant arguably we could all have gone for the best practices. This includes more testing then was done but also realizing that in the current set up this still was likely to fail.

Next step would be to educate the public. Possibly tell everyone to wear a mask (to lessen the spread of what you for whatever cough or sneeze up).

The countries that did rather well are those who knew the reality of SARS like outbreaks. Here in the west many just did not see it coming. Ideally governments have someone looking at the near and further future but the focus is very much on the economy and that not even in a good way like investing in science needed for renewables because that is knowledge we can use in the future but just looking at another corporate handouts and some social programs to gut.

One problem is that the fight for old basic rights has long been resolved so most people have never been on the barricades and they take everything for granted. By and large the public has been educated to be uncritical consumers.

Our elections boil down to simple choices and hardly any debate is technical because that is boring.

So we pick someone because we lake him more or he is alarmed by the same things or whatever.

Meanwhile big business has all these lobbyists directly working to change laws to their benefit and that is usually not the benefit of us all. And off course there are these revolving doors like Wall Street - Washington and back.

We should recognize that we have only one planet and thus we have to live within our means.

When we know that agriculture is not sustainable we have to make it sustainable.
When we know we are mismanaging water we have to fix that.
When we have rampant chemical and plastic pollution we have to fix that.

And with all the tipping points you really want to control the carbon problem before it gets out of hand.

In the Netherlands we had a lot of discussion and farmer protests related to the nitrogen problem. No one adresses the wider issue. They might not like the limits imposed by the nitrogen laws but if your soil runs out in 30 years then you don´t really have a farm to pass on.

We are ignoring so many problems and many will hit at once.

The main thing is to take down concentrated wealth not just for the money but also to break down monocultures which make us a lot more vulnerable. We need all the variety we can keep so changing the system to promote small scale sustainable farming.

But mostly just start doing something.
Going by the principle that you cannot cheat physics so no book keeping tricks.
Absolute budget absolute goals.

Also simple goals like what does it look like in 20 (or whatever) years and can you live in that?

We can learn that ignoring real problems leads to more really big real problems that we have trouble handling hence prevent what you know we must prevent but of course the people deciding on those things are in a totally different bubble.

Maybe the lesson is not to ask what the world can do for you but what you can do for the world.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 30, 2020, 12:45:30 PM »
Extreme, high temperatures may double or triple heart-related deaths

The highest temperature on earth in the last 76 years, 129 degrees Fahrenheit, was recently recorded in Kuwait. Given the consistently high temperatures in Kuwait (average ambient temperature 82.2 degrees Fahrenheit), researchers examined the relationship between temperature and more than 15,000 cardiovascular-related deaths in the country. All death certificates in Kuwait from 2010 to 2016 that cited "any cardiovascular cause" for individuals ages 15 and older were reviewed for this study.

Compared to the number of deaths on days with the lowest mortality temperature (average daily temperature of 94.5 degrees Fahrenheit, when the fewest people died), when the 24-hour average temperature was extreme (109 degrees Fahrenheit or higher), the investigators found:

Overall, a 3-times greater risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause;
Men were more affected by the extreme temperatures, experiencing a 3.5 times higher death rate;
The death rate among women was nearly 2.5 higher;
Working-age people (ages 15-64 years) had a death rate 3.8 times higher; and
The death rate was just over 2-times higher for people 65 and older.
To examine the effects of temperature on its own, the investigators adjusted for other environmental factors such as air pollution and humidity. Higher temperatures affected both genders and all ages differently.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 30, 2020, 12:36:37 PM »
Some minor good news from Pakistan:

Zero-carbon water pumps turn Pakistan's barren mountains green


Only two years ago, it would have been practically impossible to grow apples in this part of Pakistan, 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) up in Gilgit-Baltistan region’s Gojal Valley


But the installation of a hydraulic ram (hydro-ram) pump has changed that. It harnesses the pressure of fast-flowing water, such as a river, to drive a share of that water uphill without needing any other power source.

Because the pumps work without electricity or fuel, they are cheap to run and produce no climate-heating carbon emissions.


Encouraged by the results, the United Nations Development Programme gave WWF-Pakistan additional funding to install 20 more hydro-ram pumps in 12 villages.


Each pump is connected to a drip irrigation system that delivers a steady, gentle flow of water to mountain-top crops, using less water than many traditional irrigation methods.

The pumps have helped revive about 60 acres (24 hectares) of previously barren land, benefiting nearly 300 households, Raza said.

Their simple design - consisting mainly of pipes and two valves - means few moving parts to maintain or repair.

Upkeep of the pumps, which cost up to 70,000 Pakistani rupees ($430) to build and install, is easy and affordable for communities, who have welcomed the new systems, Raza added.


“Higher rainfall in this mountainous region offers a golden opportunity to grow high-value crops such as cherries and apples that can lead to greater profits,” he said.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 30, 2020, 12:09:11 PM »
Thx! I love Godspeed You Black Emperor had half forgotten about this.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:16:00 PM »
For this, we cannot run away. There is no "away" to run to.

But time will make it ok. With global warming that is not the case.

We have to go on making food and many other things so we cannot all sit home. Yes there is a bigger chance you die then in a normal year but for most it is still not that big.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 07:41:02 PM »
Dutch numbers

Deaths 771 +132

Hospital admissions 3483 +529

IC beds used changed from 900 to 970.

Our total of 1150 IC beds has increased to 1600 with 1025 for covid patients rest for other patients.
2200 beds needed by the end of may.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 07:33:59 PM »
You could build cities and society differently.
We did not get here because we chose the best options for all of us.

And it is not like we are doing a great job in the first world with unsustainable soil and water management and rampant pollution problems. Those would bite eventually even if there was no AGW. It is very much the same problem.

Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 29, 2020, 01:38:42 PM »
Ralph Keeling estimates that global fossil fuel use would have to decline by 10% for a full year to clearly impact CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere


But there was a long way from reduced use of fossil fuels to a crisis that would affect carbon dioxide concentrations in the global atmosphere.

Keeling estimated that global fossil fuel use would have to decline by 10% for a full year to show up in carbon dioxide concentrations. Even then, it would be a difference of only about 0.5 parts per million.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 29, 2020, 01:36:08 PM »
Europe’s lucrative, illegal, trade in sea cucumbers is booming


Until 2014, these slimy, slow-moving creatures were only used as fishing bait in southern Spain, but then word spread that their dried body walls were a prized delicacy called bêche-de-mer, and even considered an aphrodisiac, in places like China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan.

Some 10,000 tonnes of dried sea cucumber are traded internationally, the equivalent of 200 million live animals, each year – and that doesn't include aquafarming. As the once-ample supply of sea cucumbers starts to dwindle in the Indo-Pacific, fishermen in Spain are racing to pluck the unassuming creatures from the seafloor. Close behind them are a cadre of less nautically-inclined opportunists: drug dealers eager to cash in on the booming trade.


The soaring demand among its growing middle class has all but depleted the regional stocks in the last few decades and driven fisheries to the Mediterranean and northeastern Atlantic Ocean where sea cucumber fisheries are generally not regulated. A global analysis by Steven Purcell, an expert on sea cucumbers at Australia’s Southern Cross University, found that 70 per cent of the world’s fisheries were already fully or over-exploited in 2011. The much-favoured Japanese spiky sea cucumber, for example, has been exploited throughout its natural range and is considered endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The species is now being bred and cultivated on a large scale.


Sea cucumbers may appear to be simple, inconspicuous creatures but they are the vacuum cleaners of the ocean. They brush their sticky tentacles along the sandy seabed and stuff a mixture of silt, decaying algae and other waste particles into their mouths. Similar to their above-ground counterparts, the earthworms, sea cucumbers perform the thankless task of recycling decomposing matter and bacteria and pooping it out as clean sand.

Because sea cucumbers rely on external fertilisation for reproduction, illegal exploitation can cause local populations to collapse. Males release their sperm into the water and females release their eggs at the same and they need to be close enough to each other for fertilisation to occur. In areas where mature animals have been overfished, the few eggs and sperm find it difficult to reach each other.

The cascading effects on marine ecosystems become apparent within months.


Holothuria arguinensis can grow to 40 cm and normally feed among the sand, mud and seagrass meadows of the lagoon. At one of the study sites, González-Wangüemert was shocked to find only two individuals per hectare during the summer of 2018 where she had observed some 200 just six months before. Parts of the shallow lagoon that used to be filled with sea grass are now devoid of plant life: “It’s completely covered in mud. If you touch the bottom with your hands, it’s impossible to see anything,” she says. All that is left is a smell of rotten eggs by hydrogen sulfide-producing bacteria in the oxygen-depleted water.


Their investigations have also led to the rooftop of a city centre building and, in May 2019, to a Chinese restaurant where 340 kg of dried sea cucumbers and nearly 300 seahorses – a protected animal – were ready to be exported internationally. Sea cucumbers weigh ten times more when they are alive so the rough maths would add up to some 18,000 individuals.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 29, 2020, 01:27:33 PM »
As the ocean warms, marine species relocate toward the poles

Since pre-industrial times, the world's oceans have warmed by an average of one degree Celsius (1°C). Now researchers report that those rising temperatures have led to widespread changes in the population sizes of marine species. The researchers found a general pattern of species having increasing numbers on their poleward sides and losses toward the equator.


"The main surprise is how pervasive the effects were," says senior author Martin Genner, an evolutionary ecologist at the University of Bristol. "We found the same trend across all groups of marine life we looked at, from plankton to marine invertebrates, and from fish to seabirds."


The findings show that large-scale changes in the abundance of species are well underway. They also suggest that marine species haven't managed to adapt to warmer conditions. The researchers therefore suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 will continue to drive the latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods.

"This matters because it means that climate change is not only leading to abundance changes, but intrinsically affecting the performance of species locally," Genner says. "We see species such as Emperor penguin becoming less abundant as water becomes too warm at their equatorward edge, and we see some fish such as European seabass thriving at their poleward edge where historically they were uncommon."

The findings show that climate change is affecting marine species in a highly consistent and non-trivial way. "While some marine life may benefit as the ocean warms, the findings point toward a future in which we will also see continued loss of marine life," Genner says.


Article is OA

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 29, 2020, 01:16:52 PM »
Seafloor of Fram Strait is a sink for microplastic from Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean

Working in the Arctic Fram Strait, scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) have found microplastic throughout the water column with particularly high concentrations at the ocean floor. Using model-based simulations, they have also found an explanation for this high level of pollution. According to their findings, the two main ocean currents in Fram Strait transport the microscopically small plastic particles into the region between Greenland and Spitsbergen from both the Arctic and the North Atlantic. While passing through the Strait, many particles eventually drift to the seafloor, where they accumulate. The experts report on this phenomenon in a study just released in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.


"We found the highest concentration of microplastic particles in water at our northernmost sampling spot near the sea-ice edge," reports AWI biologist and first author Mine Tekman. In the area technically referred to as the marginal ice zone, one cubic metre of surface water contained more than 1,200 microplastic particles, though this hardly came as a surprise to the researchers. "From previous studies we knew that the Arctic sea ice can contain as much as 12,000 microplastic particles per litre of meltwater. When this ice reaches the end of its journey and melts in the northern Fram Strait, it most likely releases its microplastic load into the sea, which would explain the high concentration in the surface waters," she adds.

In contrast, the level of pollution was 16,000 times higher in sediments at the bottom of Fram Strait. The analysis of sediment samples with a Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) revealed up to 13,000 microplastic particles per kilogramme of sediment. "This large quantity of particles and the various types of plastic we found in the sediment confirm that microplastic is continually accumulating on the seafloor of Fram Strait. In other words, the deep sea in this region is a sink for microscopically small plastic particles," says AWI deep-sea expert and co-author Dr Melanie Bergmann.


It should also be mentioned that more than half of all plastic particles identified were smaller than 25 micrometres in diameter, roughly half the thickness of a fine human hair. "This high percentage of truly minute particles is of course troubling, as it immediately raises the question of how marine organisms respond to these minuscule bits of plastic waste," says Melanie Bergmann. To answer this question, British colleagues are currently investigating whether the crustaceans in the AWI's Arctic zooplankton samples have consumed any plastic.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:17:36 AM »
They do have a look. Cool stuff.  :)

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: March 28, 2020, 01:59:55 PM »
Wollongong biologist's trip to Antarctica to study ancient moss reveals impact of glacier retreat

Nothing much on the science but has some pictures of King George Island.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 28, 2020, 01:58:05 PM »
I would opt for Greenland Sea.

Basically when using abbreviations that are not general like AMOC type the full version once before shortening it is clearer that way.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 28, 2020, 01:50:28 PM »
Disease inspired death metal part 2.

Morbid Angel playing Lord of all fevers and plagues.
2m08 starts the Brunelle solo which i love. Trey Azagthoth plays the majority of them but this one is different and very melodic.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 01:02:08 PM »
Or ages ago.

When the soviet union collapsed the empire changed it´s targets.

We could possibly have reduced weapons by a lot in the world and invested in really making it a better place for all. Imagine where we could have been if battery and solar tech had gotten subsidies even if it was half of what big oil got every year from the late nineties on.

We could have conserved so much older forests which are a much better carbon sink then the palm oil plantation that is there now etc.

The reality should sink in that we are here together on one planet we cannot get of.

And we should get clear about the difference between the carbon budget where you cannot cheat because of physics and our usual urge to cheat which is easy in this economic system with well trained consumer sheeple. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 12:36:27 PM »
Clearly shows he is unfit for the job but that is not exactly a lesson from Covid.

The lack of international cooperation on this is going to hurt and make thinks worse like it hurts AGW.

The scary thing is that this is just a disease so it will fade.
With AGW that will not happen. Things will just get worse year over year.

There are lines we should not have crossed and we crossed a number before the 1.5 C point was reached and we still have 0 real commitments to actually hit that target.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 12:19:40 PM »
Eradicating flu.

This would probably be a bad idea since you cannot eradicate it from the natural pool.
Flu coming around every year means immunity for most people.

One possible factor in H1N1 hitting the young so hard in 1918 is that the prior flu type that circulated had been more H3 like. There are some hints of this from serotological studies. 

More practcal ideas are really stringent controls on pollution of all types. Growing up near busy roads has the same risk increase over life as being a smoker.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 11:57:47 AM »
'Zorgpersoneel al vóór 27 februari besmet'

Wetenschappers hebben deze maand onderzoek gedaan naar medewerkers van het Amphia Ziekenhuis in Breda en het Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis in Tilburg. Van de 1.353 bleken er 86 besmet te zijn (geweest) met het coronavirus. Zeven van hen verklaren dat ze al voor 27 februari, de dag waarop de eerste besmetting bij een 56-jarige patiënt werd vastgesteld, symptomen hadden. Eén medewerker zegt al op 19 februari klachten te hebben gehad. Wat voor klachten deze medewerkers hadden, komt in het onderzoek niet naar voren.

Dat de 56-jarige man niet de eerste was die besmet was geraakt met het virus, komt niet direct als een verrassing voor het Tilburgse ziekenhuis. Directeur Bart Berden zegt tegen het Brabants Dagblad dat hij daar al rekening mee hield: "In de eerste weken dachten we nog: als je geen koorts hebt, ben je niet besmettelijk. Dat bleek dus wel het geval te zijn."

De peerreview van dit onderzoek heeft nog niet plaatsgevonden. In deze fase worden de onderzoeksresultaten beoordeeld door andere experts.

So there as been a study under employees in two hospitals.
1353 in total with 86 confirmed cases.

7 of those had the symptoms the week before the first patient was admitted on feb 27th.
1 reported having the symptoms feb 19th

At least that shows that people are contagious before fever which we already knew but the official line still assumed that you needed a fever. Basically designated critical personnel was told not to report sick unless they also had a fever which meant that i met quite some coworkers with sniffles and minor cold symptoms (it being really cold did not help). Not happy about that and i already decided i was going to ignore the fever part if i felt unwell since they are not going to check that any way.

Still did not catch anything but i had a really bad cold aquired from NB in the same week as most early cases mentioned above. If they ask people to volunteer for some antibody test i would gladly take that.

Not sure there is going to be one but it would be interesting to know the current level in immunity in different groups like:
HC workers
Other designated personnel
People with not that many contacts that isolated early
People with kids in 4-12 age group and 13-18 group. Or you could lump them together but especially the young kids are snotty all the time so that is an easy way to spread it when the kids and their parents only have rather mild colds.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 09:26:02 AM »

In plaats van zomers weer krijgt Nederland vanaf zondag te maken met de eerste lange te koude periode sinds november. Een vlok natte sneeuw is ook niet uitgesloten.

Zondag komt er veel koude lucht naar ons land. Ligt het kwik zaterdag overdag nog rond een graad of 12, op zondag komt de temperatuur overdag niet hoger dan 8 graden.

In combinatie met een stevige noordenwind levert dat een gevoelstemperatuur van tegen het vriespunt op, meldt Weerplaza.

So our weather is being as annoying as the general health situation. Lots of cold air are headed our way and it will feel like freezing.

One the things that annoy me most about GW warming is the part were a slowing AMOC would keep down temperatures in Europe. Technically it´s probably good for us but i just hate cold and don´t mind heat.

BTW this is not really related to that i think. It is like an early 80ies end of winter (where winter just would not fuck off) but it stands out now because our actual winter went AWOL.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 04:51:38 PM »
I can't read it, or understand it. It should be people and police from the Hubei province , on a bridge to enter the next province.

When Hubei people tried to enter Jiujiang, Jiangxi via the Yangtze River Bridge, they were blocked by the Jiangxi side; police in the two provinces even broke out.

They had a fight but most people wore masks (no confidence interval since i mad the last part up).

First thing i wondered was if he was going to tweet about it...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 04:39:16 PM »
Dutch numbers

546 deaths +112 largest increase so far. I assume most are IC patients

8603 confirmed +1172

+341 hospitalisations (total not given so give me a sec)
2151 +341 so 2492.


This is so fucking retarded. While we are at it can we just legalize bank robbery too?

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 01:22:44 PM »
Can you buy him a spaceship when global warming starts to bite?

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: March 27, 2020, 01:16:27 PM »
Study shows why trees won't benefit much from extra CO2 in the air

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing steadily, ... , one argued silver lining is that plants are better off due to more of their food being in the air. But a new study has dashed those hopes, finding that the more extreme heat and drought brought on by climate change would cancel out most of the benefits for trees.


The researchers grew a series of Aleppo pines from seeds under two different concentrations of CO2 – 421 parts per million (ppm), which is a little higher than the current atmospheric level, and an elevated level of 867 ppm.

When the trees were 18 months old, the team began testing them. For the first month, they watered one group well, while leaving others without, to simulate drought conditions. Then, they planted both groups in chambers where they could control the temperature. Over 10 days, the heat was gradually increased from a pleasant 25 °C (77 °F) to a sweltering 40 °C (104 °F), while the scientists measured the trees’ responses.

The team found that higher CO2 levels did help the trees use their water more efficiently, and lose less of it, as the heat rose. That was largely thanks to root proteins becoming more stable, and the trees closing their stomata – the pores in leaves that allow for gas exchange.

But that’s where the benefits end, unfortunately. Closed stomata meant the stressed-out trees took up significantly less carbon from the air, and the heat had a negative effect on their metabolism as well.

“Overall, the impact of the increased CO2 concentration on stress reactions of the trees was rather moderate,” says Nadine Rühr, lead author of the study. “With increasing heat and drought, it decreased considerably. From this, we conclude that the increasing CO2 concentration of the atmosphere cannot compensate the stress of the trees resulting from extreme climate conditions.”


Cute trees...see the picture in the article.

Hot drought reduces the effects of elevated CO2 on tree water‐use efficiency and carbon metabolism (OA)

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: March 27, 2020, 12:37:03 PM »
New Neanderthal seafood evidence:

Neanderthals ate sharks and dolphins

Neanderthals were eating fish, mussels and seals at a site in present-day Portugal, according to a new study.

The research adds to mounting evidence that our evolutionary relatives may have relied on the sea for food just as much as ancient modern humans.

For decades, the ability to gather food from the sea and from rivers was seen as something unique to our own species.

Scientists found evidence for an intensive reliance on seafood at a Neanderthal site in southern Portugal.

Neanderthals living between 106,000 and 86,000 years ago at the cave of Figueira Brava near Setubal were eating mussels, crab, fish - including sharks, eels and sea bream - seabirds, dolphins and seals.

The research team, led by Dr João Zilhão from the University of Barcelona, Spain, found that marine food made up about 50% of the diet of the Figueira Brava Neanderthals. The other half came from terrestrial animals, such as deer, goats, horses, aurochs (ancient wild cattle) and tortoises.

continues on:

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 09:49:46 PM »
FWIW the kissing habit is more prevalent in the south (although everybody might do it these days just not me).

South of NL is catholic while above the rivers they are protestants which off course also means they only know how to carnaval in the south.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 09:38:31 PM »
Maths modelling of a andemic:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 26, 2020, 09:00:05 PM »
Look also at the Big Beast - the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea. Still totally inviolate and concentration (Area divided by Extent) at almost at 100% of absolute maximum.

It´s in a good spot but that is all surface. If you look at the multiyear ice disappearing/ the arms getting thinner that has consequences. The ice drifts more and who knows how much more energy comes into the system.

It all froze up a bit this freezing season but all gains are already gone.

There were some hints on the Mosaic thread about floes slamming together and making thick ice also below the water. This acts as anchors but i bet i happens much less then it used to do just because there is so much less thick ice slamming into each other. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 08:24:55 PM »
1) edit the line to remove the FB tag (everything after the question mark)

2) Whatever.

A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol

Observations show robust near-surface trends in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation towards the end of the twentieth century, including a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet1,2, a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode1,3–6 and an expansion of the Hadley cell7,8. It has been established that these trends were driven by ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere due to emissions of ozone-depleting substances9–11. Here we show that these widely reported circulation trends paused, or slightly reversed, around the year 2000. Using a pattern-based detection and attribution analysis of atmospheric zonal wind, we show that the pause in circulation trends is forced by human activities, and has not occurred owing only to internal or natural variability of the climate system. Furthermore, we demonstrate that stratospheric ozone recovery, resulting from the Montreal Protocol, is the keydriver of the pause. Because pre-2000 circulation trends have affected precipitation12–14, and potentially ocean circulation and salinity15–17, we anticipate that a pause in these trends will have wider impacts on the Earth system. Signatures of the effects of the Montreal Protocol and the associated stratospheric ozone recovery might therefore manifest, or have already manifested, in other aspects of the Earth system

Link in the SA article above.

So rest of human crap overrides Montreal recoveries in the noughties. Permafrost flips ca 2015.

I don´t feel to fucking confident.

I deleted the SA article so if you have to go to the original quote to get it.

We owe much of our factored in improvements on GW to the Montreal protocol (see Dutch policy and solutions thread in P and S forum for details).

And we are over riding that with our collective actions.

We really need to do so much more.

So many people get that there is a slim chance to die and then they debate masks and blah blah but what we are doing to the next generations is so much worse. There is no immunity from global warming. At some point even hard core republicans won´t like sea front property any more. What will that do to the economy? Etc.

For many it seems abstract (tesla groupies, techno optimists) while our planet is in such a bad shape and the indicators for the near future are not hopeful.

We need to fight the climate war so much more then this but it seems that for many it is too abstract.

Shrinking Ozone Hole, Climate Change Are Causing Atmospheric “Tug of War”

The Southern Hemisphere jet stream is shifting, bringing more rain to some spots and less to others

The notorious Antarctic “ozone hole” sparked worldwide concern after its discovery in the 1980s, and for good reason — declining ozone allows harmful ultraviolet radiation to reach the Earth’s surface, a major threat to public health.

But the ozone hole had another effect on the planet: It caused major atmospheric changes in the Southern Hemisphere.

With less ozone trapping solar radiation higher in the atmosphere, the stratosphere began to cool. The jet stream shifted toward the South Pole. The warm, wet tropics expanded, and the dry zone below the tropics shifted southward, as well. Weather patterns in certain parts of the Southern Hemisphere began to change.

A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol

Observations show robust near-surface trends in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation towards the end of the twentieth century, including a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet1,2, a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode1,3–6 and an expansion of the Hadley cell7,8. It has been established that these trends were driven by ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere due to emissions of ozone-depleting substances9–11. Here we show that these widely reported circulation trends paused, or slightly reversed, around the year 2000. Using a pattern-based detection and attribution analysis of atmospheric zonal wind, we show that the pause in circulation trends is forced by human activities, and has not occurred owing only to internal or natural variability of the climate system. Furthermore, we demonstrate that stratospheric ozone recovery, resulting from the Montreal Protocol, is the keydriver of the pause. Because pre-2000 circulation trends have affected precipitation12–14, and potentially ocean circulation and salinity15–17, we anticipate that a pause in these trends will have wider impacts on the Earth system. Signatures of the effects of the Montreal Protocol and the associated stratospheric ozone recovery might therefore manifest, or have already manifested, in other aspects of the Earth system

Link in the SA article above.

So rest of human crap overrides Montreal recoveries in the noughties. Permafrost flips ca 2015.

I don´t feel to fucking confident.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 26, 2020, 07:25:29 PM »
Great Barrier Reef suffers third mass bleaching in five years

Australia's Great Barrier Reef has suffered another mass bleaching event - the third in just five years.

Warmer sea temperatures - particularly in February - are feared to have caused huge coral loss across the world's largest reef system.

Scientists say they have detected widespread bleaching, including extensive patches of severe damage. But they have also found healthy pockets.

Two-thirds of the reef was damaged by similar events in 2016 and 2017.

The reef system, which covers over 2,300km (1,400 miles), is a World Heritage site recognised for its "enormous scientific and intrinsic importance".

Last year, Australia was forced to downgrade its five-year reef outlook from poor to very poor due to the impact of human-induced climate change.

On Thursday, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority said its latest aerial surveys had shown that the severity of bleaching varied across the reef.

But it said more areas had been damaged than in previous events.


The rhythm won´t get better until we do something. As it is we lose it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 07:11:04 PM »
For the 26th (tomorrow's posting) and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

Now lets see what this year does.
It was an interesting freeze season and this looks like a promising melt season...

Thanks for all the work!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:52:18 PM »
Group 1 see 4004 above.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:50:22 PM »
I will say it once again but a pandemic will wane. You might have lots of deaths but more survivors.

We really need to stop BAU and fight climate change like this disease.

Some things need to be moderated like local shops could open but maybe we really should do things differently. Price in the carbon costs on anything (so people will buy less useless shit). Promote a universal loader for all the ephone and tablet crap and no planned redundancy.

Take out all the easy to eliminate point sources that have existing solutions.
Stop wasting money running fracking crap for economical warfare.
Build local grids everywhere and what we need beyond that (but not in nature reserves ffs).
Stop free market crap and make sustainable things. This also means paying a fair share to local producers and to those making exotic things far away like chocolate.

If we were serious about GW we could make a list of industry we need and crap we don´t really need.

But we get this talk circus but no real action. The extra carbon needs to go to zero.

Also there is global warming but also the decline of water tables/aquifers rampant pollution and soil degradation.
If i was 18 i would so wonder how people thought this current state was ok.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:05:55 PM »
Dutch numbers

434 deaths +78
Some deaths from earlier days (probably the non ICU ones but we never get a breakdown)

2151 hospitalisations +315 +341 yesterday
This is all historical cases including deaths (part of 434) and people who got better. Number unknown but larger then one (deaths have to be reported but recoveries not)

7431 confirmed +1019 (this group should have a large group of HCW).

Uit cijfers van het Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (RIVM) van 25 maart blijkt dat meer dan 60 procent van de COVID-19-patiënten die in Nederland in het ziekenhuis belanden man is. Ook van de mensen die in Nederland aan de gevolgen van het coronavirus zijn overleden, is 60 procent man. Toch wordt het coronavirus bij ongeveer evenveel mannen als vrouwen geconstateerd. Mannen lijken dus zieker te worden van een besmetting dan vrouwen.

Data from march 25th shows that 60% of Covid patients in hospitals is male.
60% of deaths are males too.
The virus is seen in as many women as men so it looks like men fare worse.

Reasons can off course be live style options and or differences in the immune system.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 05:50:46 PM »
The list of countries with most deaths. Ordered by death/1 mill hab.
US and UK seem 10 days behind Spain and Italy, but NYC and London are probably much closer

I am surprised a Northern Europe country like Netherlands is not far the Southern Europe countries. Do they cheek-kiss too?

Several factors here.
As noted they had carnaval which surely did not help (this disease has impeccable timing).

Another big factor was the holidays which were in the south so Noord-Brabant, Limburg (and Zeeland i guess but they have low numbers) and likely parts of Utrecht (we were second for a while but dropped out on the daily news mention after Limburg and N and S Holland overtook us on numbers. This is mostly relevant because they are also the regions that celebrate carnaval. Lots of people came back from italy with something.

Then there are basically 2 groups of deaths.
1) A group of people who were not treated in IC. These are the very old (lets say 70+) who had recent history of medical problems (3 operations in the last year or recent ones for specific ones mainly relating to heart failure). They were not treated but this decision was reached together with the family. Basically 2 weeks in a coma on vents are very hard on any one so most of them would not make it. If i were that age i would prefer a quick death too.

2) The deaths of people treated in ICs.

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