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**Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season**

« **on:**July 02, 2019, 09:36:37 PM »

Oren,I think the trick is with the mathematical properties of normal distribution, and the number of years available for observation. A 2-3 sigma event represents 4.2 % of all in a normal distribution, and there are ~40 years of data available, thus discarding one maxima and minima gets rid of the 5 % of the observations, corresponding to roughly the probability of them occuring.

How did you determine that the grey zone that shows "all but the highest and lowest daily records of 1981-2010 data" (per Gerontocrat's June 29 post) is approximately 2SD? Is there a 'rule of thumb' involved here? You said it was so on June 30.

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